Gold Sees Technical Rebound, But Downtrend Remains IntactGold has seen a modest rebound from its lowest level in over a week, driven by dip-buying interest. However, the overall downtrend remains intact as risk appetite increases across markets, following a temporary trade and tariff agreement between the U.S. and China. This progress has reduced demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, if the U.S. continues to release more positive updates on bilateral trade relations, downward pressure on gold is likely to persist — especially amid a stronger U.S. Dollar. As such, current rebounds are likely to be technical in nature, and investors should exercise caution with long positions.
🔮 Expected Short-Term Scenario
Gold (XAU/USD) may continue a technical recovery around the $3,275–$3,280 zone due to bottom-fishing activity. However, without a clear breakout, the broader trend remains bearish, driven by:
• Increasing risk-on sentiment
• Continued USD strength
🧭 Suggested Trading Strategy
• Short-term Sell in the zone: $3,275 – $3,280
• Short-term Buy in the zone: $3,205 – $3,210
• Always use tight stop-losses to mitigate risk from news-driven volatility.
💡 Short-Term Trade Setup
🔻 SELL XAU/USD at: $3,275 – $3,280
• 🎯 TP1: $3,265
• 🎯 TP2: $3,255
• 🚨 SL: $3,300
🔺 BUY XAU/USD at: $3,205 – $3,210
• 🎯 TP1: $3,215
• 🎯 TP2: $3,225
• 🚨 SL: $3,195
Futures market
Crude Oil: Waiting for Clear SetupThe upside movement in oil is very limited, and the overall trend remains bearish.
I'm not considering long positions at this point. For a trend reversal, I would need to see a breakout above 68 — ideally with some consolidation above that level. Too many “ifs” right now. For me, there’s no clear trade setup here yet.
As for short positions, it’s still too early. I’d like to see a daily close below 63.50 before considering an entry.
XAUMO x Heikin Ashi Chikou Fusion Strategy (Full Calibration)
Timeframe-Synced Strategic Confluence: XAU/USD
⸻
5M + 15M (Trigger Zone)
• EMA/HMA/SMA Stack: All bearish — price below EMA21, HMA5 rolling down = trend aligned.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Below Kumo, flat Kijun — choppy bearish bias.
• Stoch RSI: Crossover from oversold — minor bounce brewing.
• Chikou Span (HA): Still below price = bearish lag.
• Volume: Weak green = bounce lacks conviction.
Conclusion: Micro bounce trap. Stay patient for SELL SIGNAL from higher TF.
⸻
1H + 4H (Execution Timeframe)
• MA Confluence: Perfect bearish alignment (EMA21, SMA50/84/200 all above price).
• Ichimoku: Bearish TK cross, Chikou Span far under price (lagging confirmation).
• Stoch RSI: Just crossed from oversold on 1H — temporary pullback likely.
• MACD: Red, contracting — confirms bounce but no reversal.
• Fib Level: 61.8% & 78.6% = 3,260 - 3,275 resistance hot zone.
Conclusion: Perfect zone for sell trap. Wait for bounce toward Fib+MA confluence, then strike.
⸻
D1 (Trend Validation Layer)
• Chikou Span (HA): Bearish – lagging behind price, rejection at cloud = LONG-TERM SELL BIAS.
• Ichimoku Cloud: Price under cloud, future cloud bearish.
• Volume: Distribution spike from 3,500 = institutional sell.
• Stoch RSI: Near mid-zone = no help to bulls.
Conclusion: Downtrend intact. D1 confirms all signals. Time to hunt shorts.
⸻
Final Calibrated Hypothetical Trade Setup: XAU/USD (May 13, 2025)
Order Type: Sell Limit
• Entry: 3,263.00 (Fib 61.8%, SMA84 resistance, Chikou below)
• Stop Loss 1: 3,276.00 (Above SMA50 & Ichimoku Cloud)
• Stop Loss 2: 3,290.00 (Failsafe beyond Ichimoku Flat Kumo)
• Take Profit 1: 3,209.00 (Volume support, Fib minor)
• Take Profit 2: 3,183.00 (Daily Fib 100% AB=CD + institutional demand)
• Confidence Level: 91%
• Risk:Reward: 1:3.6
⸻
Execution Rules
• Only place order if Stoch RSI is above 80 on 15M/H1 at time of entry.
• Confirm Chikou Span still below Heikin Ashi price.
• Volume candle must not break upper band = no breakout.
⸻
Justification
This setup is the offspring of two powerful systems fused in battle:
• MA + Ichimoku + Fib give sniper zones.
• Stoch RSI and Chikou confirm killer timing.
• Volume shows us when the smart money exits — and we ride behind their smoke.
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XAU/USD Tactical Kill Zones – Calibrated by Multi-System Fusion
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1. RED ZONE – NO TRADE / TRAP AREA
Definition: Conflicting signals, exhaustion zones, or fake-out setups. Do not freaking touch.
• Price Above 3,290
• Overextended against higher timeframe trend.
• Chikou Span may cross price — invalidates bearish setup.
• FOMO-buyers get slaughtered here.
• Price Below 3,200 Without Breakout Volume
• Could be fake breakdown into accumulation.
• Stoch RSI may show oversold and HA reversal brewing.
• Potential for bear trap reversal.
⸻
2. YELLOW ZONE – WAIT & WATCH / REACTION ZONE
Definition: Transitional price zones. Wait for confirmation before engagement.
• Price Between 3,240 – 3,260
• Pullback rally zone. Price flirting with EMA21, SMA50, and Fib 61.8%.
• Stoch RSI climbing toward OB. Chikou still under price.
• Wait for Stoch RSI OB + HA candle rejection + volume spike for sell trigger.
• Price Between 3,209 – 3,200
• First support cluster.
• Watch for volume spike and RSI divergence. Decide whether it’s bounce or breakdown.
⸻
3. GREEN ZONE – HIGH PROBABILITY EXECUTION ZONE
Definition: Multiple timeframe confluence. This is where the kill shot is taken.
• SELL ENTRY ZONE (Green Box):
• 3,263 – 3,275
• Fib 61.8% – 78.6%
• SMA84, SMA50, EMA21 cluster
• Ichimoku flat Kumo rejection
• Chikou below price (Heikin Ashi candle)
• Stoch RSI must be OB with bearish crossover
• TP ZONE 1 (Green TP):
• 3,209 – 3,200
• Fib support + Volume support
• First liquidation level from sell pressure
• TP ZONE 2 (Green TP):
• 3,183 – 3,175
• Fib 100% AB=CD completion
• Strong volume absorption zone
• Potential D1 reversal point
XAUUSD at Critical Support – Bullish Continuation or Pullback 🔍 Market Overview
The chart shows a technical setup with clear support and resistance zones, alongside key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) to guide directional bias.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: ~$3,445–$3,460
This is a historically reactive area where price has reversed sharply in the past. A breakout above this zone would suggest strong bullish continuation.
Strong Supporting Zone: ~$3,375–$3,390
Currently being tested. If the price holds here, it could act as a launchpad for a bullish move toward resistance.
Support Zone: ~$3,320–$3,340
If the strong support breaks, the next downside target would be this zone, which aligns with the 200 EMA (blue line) — a dynamic support level.
📈 Moving Averages
50 EMA (Red): Currently at $3,345.60, serving as a short-term dynamic support.
200 EMA (Blue): Currently at $3,304.13, marking a critical longer-term support. Price staying above this EMA reflects a bullish bias.
🔀 Probable Scenarios
Bullish Case (Preferred Scenario)
If price holds the strong supporting zone and breaks above current highs (~$3,395), it could rally toward the resistance zone at $3,445–$3,460.
Break and close above resistance may open the door for further upside continuation.
Bearish Case
A rejection from current levels or a break below $3,375 would likely lead to a retracement toward the support zone ($3,320–$3,340).
A break below the support zone and the 200 EMA would shift the structure into bearish territory.
✅ Bias & Recommendation
Current Bias: Cautiously Bullish
As long as the price remains above the strong supporting zone and 50 EMA, bulls have the upper hand.
Look for confirmation with a higher low or bullish engulfing candle before entering long.
Trade Idea:
Long Entry: On bullish confirmation above $3,395
Target: $3,445–$3,460
Stop Loss: Below $3,375 (support break)
Gold is trading sideways, can the bearish trend continue?🗞News side:
1. China-US trade relations eased, suspending some tariffs and countermeasures
2. Russia and Ukraine suspended firing for 30 days, and the India-Pakistan conflict was temporarily mediated
📈Technical aspects:
The trading strategy given today, if brothers have reference and follow the trading strategy to participate in long orders, I think you should all have good gains on hand. At present, gold is in consolidation, the 4H moving average is in a short position, and the MACD dead cross continues to increase, so the short-term short momentum still exists. From a technical point of view, in the downward trend from last week's high of 3347 to the current low of 3207, 3260 is at a key position. Therefore, we pay attention to the possibility of gold rebounding to 3260 in the evening.
If you agree with this view, or have a better idea, please leave a message in the comment area. I look forward to hearing different voices.
OANDA:XAUUSD FX:XAUUSD TVC:GOLD FXOPEN:XAUUSD FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
Gold has Expecting Bearish PatternAccording this analysis use trade carefully,
/025Best Regards Mr Martin Date 12 / 05 2025
Current market overview the market is exhibiting a bearish trend with a symmetrical triangle pattern immediate resistance 4240 with the further levels at 3200 / 3180 / 2140 on the downside support is these are found these indicators will suggest the bearish trend there's potential a corrective move if support levels hold.
you may see more details in the chart Ps Support my work with like and comments for for better experience i will share Here.
GOLD SUFFERED LOSSES IN THE WAKE OF U.S AND CHINA TRADE TALKThe United States and China reached a significant trade agreement on May 12, 2025, following high-level negotiations in Geneva. The agreement establishes a 90-day truce in the ongoing trade dispute, during which both countries have committed to significantly lowering tariffs on each other’s goods.
The U.S. reduced its tariff from 145% to 30%, while China cut its rate from 125% to 10%.
This move boosted investor confidence, triggering a broad risk-on rally across global markets.
As at the time of writing, gold as a safe haven suffered the most in the wake of this decision, down by 3.46%, while WTI and S&P 500 gained 4.02% and 3.95% respectively.
From a technical perspective, gold maintains a bearish outlook, characterized by a series of impulsive declines followed by corrective pullbacks to the downside. Meanwhile, prices are seen supported around $3200 demand zone.
Technically, a potential pullback would target around $3271 to $3291 and a breakout of $3300 would open the floor for a possible reversal of trend on the 2H. Whereas a break blow $3200 would likely usher in $3135 as per analysts. Meanwhile, breakout of these levels is not ruled out.
UPCOMING CATALYST
On the radar this week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is set for release on Tuesday, May 13 at 4:30 PM GMT+4. On Thursday at 4:30 PM GMT+4, markets will watch for Core PPI, Retail Sales Index, PPI, and Weekly Unemployment Claims. Then at 4:40 PM, Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver opening remarks at the Second Thomas Laubach Research Conference in Washington, D.C.
Consumer sentiment data is scheduled for release on Friday. These data points and event have the potential to stir market volatility. Hence presenting potential risk and reward opportunities.
Copper Cup and Handle ready to explode to 10,677Copper is an interesting market because it tends to follow the major markets.
It doesn't have that safe haven status feel and every broker quotes Copper differently.
Whether you're trading on US or LSE, it is subjective to the broker.
Right, now it's priming itself for great upside which could signal upside for general markets and indices.
Hopefully, the recession fears may come to an end. But we can only hope.
Once the price breaks above the brim level, the target will set to around 10,677.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
5.13 Gold Technical Analysis
Due to the sudden drop in risk aversion, funds have flowed out of the precious metals market. The current gold market is facing a fierce game between long and short positions. On the one hand, the optimism brought about by the easing of trade tensions suppresses gold prices; on the other hand, the risk aversion demand generated by economic uncertainty, potential spot shortages and continued inflows of ETF funds provide support for gold prices. This complex market environment makes the trend of gold prices full of variables.
Citigroup has significantly lowered its gold price expectations. The US labor market is showing signs of fatigue. The current market focus has shifted to the April core CPI data to be released today. Its stickiness expectations (0.3% month-on-month) may further consolidate the Fed's "standstill" policy stance and provide fundamental support for the US dollar.
Technical aspect: Spot gold rebounded at the neckline position, and the moving average cross was under pressure to move down to 3300. The K-line combination was under pressure to focus on 3270. At the same time, pay attention to the buying sentiment at the lower edge of the 3205/3200 range. In terms of daily structure, the price saws around the MA30 life moving average. The key long-short watershed this week is still at 3200, and the KDJ/MACD cross is downward. If the market loses 3200 in the short term, then the support will be found at 3135/3100 below; in the short term, if the daily price can recover 3320, then the market will continue to rise to 3330. The short-term market is still in a wide range of fluctuations;
Combined with the 1-hour K-line chart, the European session rebounded and oscillated. Under pressure, pay attention to the 3278 line. KDJ/MACD corrected upward. Pay attention to the moving average support near 3240. Pay attention to the impact of CPI data in the European and American sessions. The technical side continues to see a rebound. Don't chase orders too much in trading. This week's gap of 3288-3325 is the key to the bulls.
In terms of trading, the US session temporarily plans to participate in long positions in batches near 3220/3230, and defend 3204; short positions pay attention to short-term participation in batches near 3275/3288, and defend 3293.
Gold outlook: inflation, tariffs, and the key level to watchI'm long-term bullish on gold. With Trump pushing for 10% tariffs across the board, inflation risks are rising. Add tax cuts and already low unemployment, and you have a recipe for more upside. But why is there a risk that the price drops first, before heading higher? Watch the video to learn.
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GOLD🟡 GOLD (XAUUSD) Analysis Update – May 13, 2025
Initial setup published on May 8:
Main bias: Bearish from the resistance level at 3421
Targets:
🎯 1st target: 3288
🎯 2nd target: 3250
🎯 3rd target: 3124
🔍 Current Situation:
Price is bouncing off last week's weekly low (red line at 3241).
A technical rebound up to the 3285 area is possible, which could act as a retest before a continuation to the downside.
The downtrend that started on May 7 is still in play, but a daily close below 3241 is needed to confirm continuation towards 3124.
📌 Key Levels to Monitor:
Main resistance: 3421
Intermediate zones: 3288 / 3250
Critical support levels:
3241 (weekly low – confirmation for further downside if broken)
3124 (extended target if breakdown occurs)
🧭 Possible Strategies:
Aggressive short entry on rejection around 3285, with a stop above 3295–3300
More conservative short if there's a confirmed break and close below 3241
Gold Holds Key Support Ahead of CPIOANDA:XAUUSD Gold (XAU/USD) edged higher to $3,255 early Tuesday as traders awaited the US April CPI report. While the 90-day US-China tariff truce improved market sentiment and limited gold’s upside, geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, the Middle East, and South Asia continue to drive safe-haven flows. A de-escalation in US-China trade tensions triggered the recent pullback, with price failing to reclaim the $3,271 resistance. The $3,213 area remains a major support. A break above $3,271 is needed to resume bullish momentum, while failure to hold $3,213 could expose $3,127.
Resistance : $3,271 , $3,305
Support : $3,213 , $3,127
XAUUSD Price Outlook – Bearish Setup in Play ??Asset Overview
The chart represents a price action analysis with support and resistance zones, along with EMA indicators (50 and 200), likely on a 4H or 1H timeframe.
Key Technical Levels
Resistance Zone: ~3,400 to 3,450
First Support Zone: ~3,230 to 3,250
Second Support Zone: ~3,090 to 3,130
Indicators
EMA 50 (Red): Currently around 3,340, acting as dynamic resistance.
EMA 200 (Blue): Positioned near 3,232, reinforcing the first support zone.
Price Action Insight
Price had a strong uptrend, peaking above 3,440 before pulling back.
A lower high may be forming, suggesting possible trend exhaustion.
The current bounce appears to be a retracement back toward resistance or EMA 50.
Projected Move (As Illustrated on Chart)
Short-term bullish move into the resistance zone (~3,400–3,450).
Failure to break above resistance leads to sharp rejection.
Price retraces to first support zone (aligned with EMA 200).
If support fails, deeper drop expected toward the lower support zone (~3,100).
Strategic Notes
📉 Bearish Bias if price fails to break above resistance.
🔍 Watch for bearish candlestick patterns or divergences near resistance.
🛡️ First support aligns with EMA 200, making it a critical level for bulls to defend.
🔻 Breakdown below 3,230 opens room for larger correction to 3,100–3,090.
Conclusion
Currently, the chart suggests a potential short opportunity if price confirms rejection at resistance. The EMA cross structure remains bullish long-term, but momentum is weakening, and failure to reclaim highs could shift sentiment bearish in the short to mid-term.
XAUUSD May 12 New York real-time trading strategy analysis.The normal plan is to trade in a unilateral falling market. However, Russia's negotiation agreement with Ukraine has not stopped. While the cashing sentiment has risen, the tax issues between the United States and China have declined. This is why the New York market continued to rebound to 3247 and then fell back to 3220.
If the price of the New York market cannot continue to break through the position of 3233 and stabilize. Then the price will continue to fall. The target is below 3190. There may be support at 3200, but it will not be too strong. But if the position of 3233 stabilizes and breaks through above 3348 again. Then we need to pay attention to the position of 3360-3375 again.
XAUUSD Analysis todayHello traders, this is a complete multiple timeframe analysis of this pair. We see could find significant trading opportunities as per analysis upon price action confirmation we may take this trade. Smash the like button if you find value in this analysis and drop a comment if you have any questions or let me know which pair to cover in my next analysis.
Gold on a declineTechnical analysis: Even though the Price-action invalidated the Lower High’s (Hourly 4 chart’s) Ascending Triangle trendline, it failed to test the #3,200.80 benchmark / acting as an first Medium-term Support zone, so Technically Gold is is still near Lower High’s Lower zone extension, and if Price-action closes the session above #3,200.80 benchmark, Gold will be Targeting #3,300.80 benchmark / fractal on yet another Buying sequence. If however #3,200.80 - #3,192.80 first Short and Medium-term Support gets invalidated, then the Hourly 1 chart’s variance of #3,152.80 benchmar should be tested, in case of Bearish sequence below, Price-action will be calling for #3,100.80 final line of the defence and as discussed, possible Stabilization zone ahead of possible relief rally. Subsequently, previous Hourly 4 chart’s Support of #3,252.80 benchmark was firmly broken and current configuration pointed out to a new bigger proportion downtrend, where Fundamentals are confirming the as well the speculative downtrend in continuation.
My position: Gold found the Support almost delivering Double Bottom formation and market closing is on main stage. Either closing above #3,200.80 benchmark and #3,300.80 re-test or DX delivering Buying sequence in extension / in that case Gold eyes decline in continuation.