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Hanzo | 30-Min Setup / incoming 300 Pip After Break Out Time Frame: 30 -Minute Warfare Entry Mode: Only after verified Break out 🩸Bullish Break : 3338 : 3342.5 Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. ➕ Hanzo Protocol: Dual- Entry Intel Zone Activated: Deep Analysis ( 3338 ) Point why we did chose it ? Solid Key level ➗1st Wick Touch (11 Jun /2025) ➗2nd Wick Touch (12 Jun /2025) ➗3rd Wick Touch (24 Jun /2025) Deep Analysis ( 3338 ) Point why we did chose it ? ➗1st Wick Touch (11 Jun /2025) ➗2nd Wick Touch (11 Jun /2025) ➗3rd Wick Touch (11 Jun /2025) ➗4th x2 Wick Touch (20 Jun /2025) ➗5th x2 Wick Touch (24 Jun /2025) 🔖That means we created a Solid Zone (3338 : 3342) of Breakout on the 30-min Chart - Price must break liquidity with a clear 30-min candle to confirm the move.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by Path_Of_Hanzo
XAUUSD: Breakout or Bull Trap?Gold (XAUUSD) on the daily timeframe is showing signs of a temporary rebound after a sharp drop from the resistance zone at 3,452 USD. Specifically, the price has bounced back from the support area around 3,291 – 3,298 USD – a region aligned with dynamic EMA support and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement of the previous bullish leg. 1. Key Technical Structure: A clear reversal candlestick pattern has formed at a strong support zone, paving the way for a short-term technical rebound. The 0.5 Fibonacci level at 3,346.5 is currently acting as the nearest resistance – aligning closely with today’s closing price. EMA 20 and EMA 50 are beginning to converge, indicating market indecision on the next directional move. 2. Short-Term Price Scenarios: Bullish Scenario: If price holds above the 3,291 – 3,298 support zone and breaks above 3,348, it could retest the 3,400 – 3,452 highs in the coming days. In this case, strengthening EMAs and bullish candle momentum would support this setup. Bearish Scenario: Conversely, if the price fails to break through the 3,348 – 3,352 resistance zone and falls below 3,291 again, the market may head toward deeper support levels at 3,240 – or even as low as 3,167 USD. 3. Trading Recommendations: Short-term Buy if there is a confirmed bullish candle closing above 3,348 with strong volume; stop loss below 3,291. Sell on rally around 3,348 – 3,352 resistance if no clear breakout is confirmed. Apply strict risk management, especially in a choppy market environment ahead of key macroeconomic data at the end of the month. Conclusion: XAUUSD is currently in a “trend re-evaluation zone.” Closely monitoring the 3,291 – 3,348 range will be the key to timing efficient entries in the short term.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
Gold May Slightly Pull Back Around 3,350 USD📊 Market Overview • Gold is currently trading around 3,340–3,345 USD/oz, supported by a weaker USD and lower U.S. yields, with 60 bps Fed rate cut expected by year-end, starting in September • The Israel–Iran ceasefire has eased safe-haven demand, triggering a mild pullback, while support remains near 3,300 USD 📉 Technical Analysis • Key resistance: 3,370 USD (short-term peak) 3,380–3,400 USD (prior highs) • Nearest support: 3,300 (technical bounce zone) Next at 3,275 (momentum weak) • EMA: Price trading below the 9-period EMA on H4, indicating a mild bearish/choppy short-term trend • Candles/volume/momentum: RSI & Stochastics near neutral suggest consolidation or minor retracement . 📌 Outlook Gold may pull back to 3,300–3,320 if the USD rebounds or geopolitical tensions ease further. However, a Fed rate cut in September or renewed Middle East instability could drive prices back up to 3,370–3,400. 💡 Suggested Trade Plan • SELL XAU/USD: at 3,365–3,370 o 🎯 TP: 3,345–3,340 o ❌ SL: 3,380 • BUY XAU/USD: at 3,300–3,310 o 🎯 TP: 3,320–3,330 o ❌ SL: 3,290
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Mian-FXSignals
2
Excellent Scalp opportunities As discussed throughout my yesterday’s session commentary: “My position: I assume no new orders as I will await where Gold will turn next / reveal major move. Either #3,327.80 - #3,332.80 break-out towards #3,352.80 benchmark or big Sell towards #3,300.80 benchmark first, then if #3,292.80 gives away, #3,252.80 benchmark. Trade accordingly.” I have engaged firstly #3,328.80 aggressive Scalp Sell order and closed it on #3,316.80. As I expected DX to touch #52-Week Low’s, I Bought Gold multiple times first from #3,314.80 twice towards #3,319.80 and #3,321.80, also had Swing order (Lower Volume order) on #3,312.80 which was closed on #3,324.80 as I was confident that Gold will stage relief rally due DX taking strong hits. Another excellent session. Technical analysis: The Price-action is basically consolidating again on Hourly 1 chart back within well known range of #3,322.80 - #3,327.80 - #3,342.80 giving Scalpers excellent opportunities for Intra-day Profit as Scalpers are getting most of the returns of current Price-action. Hourly 1 chart is an healthy Ascending Channel already and as weekend break is approaching I may be getting a break-out (the pattern usually breaks to the upside). I am currently on the sidelines, earlier simply holding whatever I have Bought Lower and Sold Higher. I need to state for the record (again) that when I mention pull backs on my analysis I am not suggesting Traders to Short right away, always await my confirmation. We are on a overall Bull market and I have stated since the start of the Year that my strategy is to be Buying (and accumulating) on pull-backs. Those who've been following me for Years are well aware that there was a time for Shorting back when Gold was below #2,000.80 benchmark. Keep in mind that I anticipated that DX could test #52-Week Low’s (currently delivered) and that’s why I have aggressively Bought Gold yesterday. My position: Gold is Trading on relief rally and it is now whether #3,352.80 benchmark will break to the upside and extend the relief rally or reversal there and another decline. I personally lean more to the Bullish side with DX chart as main pointer for Gold on current session.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by goldenBear88
Gold (XAUUSD) – Pullback Setup Before Breakout? – JUNE 26, 2025🟡 GOLD PRICE OUTLOOK – June 26, 2025 Bias: Bullish | Looking for long entry on pullback 📊 Technical Overview : OANDA:XAUUSD Gold continues to build a bullish market structure, forming consistent Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL). Price is currently moving within a rising wedge, approaching a short-term resistance zone. 🔴 Sell Zone (Resistance) : 3359 – 3373 – Rising wedge top + upper trendline – Fakeout trap possible near 3379.26 🟢 Buy Zone (Support) : 3294 – 3300 – Strong confluence zone – Matches previous structure support + trendline – Ideal for HL formation and long setup 🌍 Fundamentals & Macro Drivers : 💵 USD Weakness: • DXY near 3.5-year low after Powell replacement rumors • Boosting gold's upside momentum ☢ Geopolitical Risk: • Iran–Israel ceasefire in place, but fragile • Safe-haven demand still supportive 🏦 Central Bank Demand: • 20% of global gold demand from central banks • China 🇨🇳 & India 🇮🇳 are major buyers 📅 Upcoming Catalysts: • US PCE Inflation & GDP due tomorrow → Weak data = Potential breakout above 3370+ 📌 Trade Plan : ✔ Watch for rejection at 3359–3373 ✔ Long setup if price retests 3294–3300 🎯 Target = 3370+ ❌ Invalidation = Daily close below 3280 📈 Summary : Gold remains structurally bullish, supported by weak USD, central bank demand, and macro risks. Waiting for a healthy pullback into demand for long continuation setups.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by DECRYPTERS
Excellent Scalp opportunities As discussed throughout my yesterday’s session commentary: “My position: I assume no new orders as I will await where Gold will turn next / reveal major move. Either #3,327.80 - #3,332.80 break-out towards #3,352.80 benchmark or big Sell towards #3,300.80 benchmark first, then if #3,292.80 gives away, #3,252.80 benchmark. Trade accordingly.” I have engaged firstly #3,328.80 aggressive Scalp Sell order and closed it on #3,316.80. As I expected DX to touch #52-Week Low’s, I Bought Gold multiple times first from #3,314.80 twice towards #3,319.80 and #3,321.80, also had Swing order (Lower Volume order) on #3,312.80 which was closed on #3,324.80 as I was confident that Gold will stage relief rally due DX taking strong hits. Another excellent session. Technical analysis: The Price-action is basically consolidating again on Hourly 1 chart back within well known range of #3,322.80 - #3,327.80 - #3,342.80 giving Scalpers excellent opportunities for Intra-day Profit as Scalpers are getting most of the returns of current Price-action. Hourly 1 chart is an healthy Ascending Channel already and as weekend break is approaching I may be getting a break-out (the pattern usually breaks to the upside). I am currently on the sidelines, earlier simply holding whatever I have Bought Lower and Sold Higher. I need to state for the record (again) that when I mention pull backs on my analysis I am not suggesting Traders to Short right away, always await my confirmation. We are on a overall Bull market and I have stated since the start of the Year that my strategy is to be Buying (and accumulating) on pull-backs. Those who've been following me for Years are well aware that there was a time for Shorting back when Gold was below #2,000.80 benchmark. Keep in mind that I anticipated that DX could test #52-Week Low’s (currently delivered) and that’s why I have aggressively Bought Gold yesterday. My position: Gold is Trading on relief rally and it is now whether #3,352.80 benchmark will break to the upside and extend the relief rally or reversal there and another decline. I personally lean more to the Bullish side with DX chart as main pointer for Gold on current session.
TVC:GOLDLong
by goldenBear88
1
Hanzo Drex | 15-Min Bearish Reversal Setup – 300 Pips in Sight🔥 Gold – 15 Min Scalping Analysis ⚡️ Objective: Precision Reversal Execution Time Frame: 15 -Minute Warfare Entry Mode: Only after verified Reversals 👌Bearish Reversal : 3346 Price must break liquidity with high volume to confirm the move. ☄️ Hanzo Protocol: Dual-Direction Entry Intel ➕ Zone Activated: Strategic liquidity layer detected — mapped through refined supply/demand mechanics. Volatility now rising. This isn’t noise — this is bait for the untrained. We're not them. 🦸‍♂️ Tactical Note: The kill shot only comes after the trap is exposed and volume betrays their position. 5
CAPITALCOM:GOLDShort
by Path_Of_Hanzo
5
Potential bullish rise?The Gold (XAU/USD) is reacting off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 3,334.86 1st Support: 3,315.22 1st Resistance: 3,356.66 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by ICmarkets
1
Report - June 26, 20251. Ceasefire, Oil, and Market Sentiment: Markets are stabilizing after a volatile stretch driven by geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. A ceasefire, brokered by President Trump, appears to be holding, encouraging risk-on sentiment across global asset classes. Brent crude has fallen back to $68.17 per barrel, erasing earlier war-driven spikes. Traders swiftly sold oil after Iran's symbolic missile attack on a US base in Qatar, interpreting it as a move to de-escalate rather than escalate. This rapid reaction, fueled by open-source intelligence and satellite imagery showing the base was empty, helped unwind the geopolitical premium in crude. Energy consultancy Rystad noted Iran even increased crude exports amid the conflict due to lack of refining capacity. With OPEC+ boosting supply and US shale output high, the market anticipates an oversupplied scenario by year-end. Strategists like Amrita Sen (Energy Aspects) expect crude to test $50–60, while RBC’s Helima Croft said the White House is unlikely to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, given sufficient alternative supply buffers. 2. Equities and Sector Rotation: US equity indices were mixed: the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.2% to 22,237.74, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones dipped slightly. The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) dropped 1.1% to 16.77, signaling easing investor fear. Year-to-date, tech leads with XLK up 31.95%, followed by communications (XLC +23.46%) and discretionary (XLY +18.69%). Defensive sectors lagged: utilities (XLU +19.13%), consumer staples (XLP +9.15%), and real estate (XLRE -1.27%). Recent sector performance reflects a recalibration away from energy and interest-rate sensitive names. XLE has tumbled 4.65% over the past five days, mirroring declining oil, while XLRE’s underperformance worsened, highlighting investor caution in yield-sensitive areas. The growth/value debate continues: large-cap growth (IWF) was the only factor posting a gain (+0.29%), while small-cap growth (IJT) fell 1.2%, underscoring preference for quality and scale. 3. Fixed Income and Sovereign Yields: Rates edged higher. The US 10Y Treasury yield rose 2 bps to 4.32%. Germany’s 10Y bund climbed 3 bps to 2.57%, and UK gilts ticked up 1 bp to 4.46%, driven by expectations of higher issuance to fund increased NATO defense spending. US Treasuries across the curve remain elevated: 1Y at 3.99%, 2Y at 3.77%, and 30Y at 4.81%. Despite global easing signals, sovereign borrowing costs stay elevated, reflecting inflation stickiness and geopolitical risk premia. TIPs and agency MBS have outperformed on a 1Y basis, with TIP +4.7% and GNMA +5.76%. 4. NATO Commitment and Fiscal Risk: At The Hague summit, NATO allies pledged to meet Trump's demand for 5% of GDP in defense spending by 2035, a seismic shift from the previous 2% benchmark. While reaffirming Article 5 commitments, Trump emphasized US support hinges on European “burden sharing,” pressuring Spain for opting out. The summit declaration promises annual roadmaps and a 2029 review—coinciding with Trump’s potential exit from office. Germany’s Chancellor Merz called the commitment a moment of “putting our money where our mouth is,” but bond markets reacted with concern. The FTSE 100 slid 0.5%, and the DAX fell 0.6%, reflecting fiscal anxieties tied to expanded military budgets. 5. Policy Front – Trump’s Tax Push & Debt Outlook: The White House claims its proposed tax bill will lower debt via growth and tariff revenue. CEA estimates show debt-to-GDP dropping to 94% by 2034 with $8.5–11.2 trillion in deficit reduction. Yet the CBO projects the bill would add $2.4 trillion to deficits—and $2.8 trillion when factoring in higher rates. Trump’s pressure campaign on Senate Republicans includes urging round-the-clock negotiations. However, concerns linger among fiscal hawks like Sen. Ron Johnson, who warned of “an acute debt crisis.” 6. Credit Markets and Insurance Breakdown Risk: Credit spreads are holding stable, but US liability insurance is flashing red. Marsh data shows US casualty insurance rates have risen for 23 straight quarters. Executives at Everest and Aspen warn of a “breakdown” in coverage availability due to runaway litigation costs and “forever chemicals” claims. Everest’s reserves for US casualty risks now top $1.7 billion. Insurers are lobbying for tort reform, and rate hikes of 20–25% in excess liability are becoming the norm. This insurance squeeze poses a serious inflationary threat to businesses, especially in logistics, construction, and hospitality. 7. Trade Disruption – FedEx Feels the Pinch: FedEx shares dropped nearly 6% after warning of sharp deterioration in China–US freight, driven by the end of the “de minimis” $800 tariff exemption used by platforms like Temu and Shein. This lane, their most profitable intercontinental route, now faces structural weakness. While Q4 net income rose 13% to $1.65B, guidance for EPS of $3.40–4.00 (below expectations) reflects uncertainty ahead. 8. M&A Spotlight – Brighthouse Bidding Heats Up: TPG and Aquarian Holdings are the final bidders for Brighthouse Financial, a $3.5B life insurer. Despite interest from Apollo, Carlyle, and Blackstone, many walked due to legacy annuity liabilities and high capital charges. The strategic appeal remains strong: control over policyholder premiums enhances credit origination capabilities for private capital platforms. An exclusive negotiation could emerge in the coming week. 9. Political Heat – Warren Targets Private Equity: Senator Elizabeth Warren is probing PE firms (Apollo, KKR, Blackstone, Bain, Thoma Bravo) for lobbying efforts related to the “carried interest” loophole and private credit tax breaks embedded in Trump’s tax bill. The senator demands disclosures by July 2, while Trump pushes for bill signing by July 4. The American Investment Council responded that raising taxes on private capital would “kill jobs” and hurt innovation. The legislation, approved narrowly in the House, slashes taxes and expands debt—a key flashpoint heading into summer recess. 10. Currency, Commodities, and Global Trends: Brent crude trades at $67.95 and WTI at $65.18. Gold holds at $3,335, up 45% YTD, though recent profit-taking has slowed its rally. Silver (+26.2% YTD) and copper (+12.5%) also reflect bullish industrial demand. In FX, GBP/USD is up 0.3% to 1.3705; EUR/USD is at 1.1681 (+0.02%). USD/JPY slid to 144.57 (-0.66%). On a 1Y basis, GBP and EUR are both up over 8%, while the yen is down nearly 10.5%, continuing its depreciation due to BOJ’s dovish stance. --- Equities: Current Positioning: Equities are delicately balanced. The S&P 500 is up +3.6% YTD, Nasdaq +3.4%, but Dow only +1.0%, reflecting the rotation into growth, defensives, and high-cap tech. However, small caps are under heavy pressure (IJR/SPY -1.05% daily, down YTD), and value is again underperforming. Tactical Implications: Overweight: Large-Cap Growth (e.g., XLK, IWF) – Mega-cap tech remains the secular winner (+31.95% YTD in XLK). Given moderating rates and weak cyclicals, expect further leadership unless yields spike. Underweight: Small-Caps (IWM), Real Estate (XLRE), and Energy (XLE) – These are vulnerable to tightening credit, low breadth, and oil retracements. XLRE is -1.27% YTD and XLE dropped -4.65% in the past week alone. Neutral: Financials (XLF) – The sector is at a crossroads. While yields support net interest margins, the liability insurance shock and credit pricing discipline weigh on capital-intensive names. Actionable View: Stay concentrated in quality tech and cash-flow-rich defensives. Consider rotating out of overextended discretionary and look for short-term mean reversion trades in oversold industrials only on technicals. Fixed Income: Market: The UST 10Y yield is at 4.32%, up 2bps on the day. Notably, the 2Y/10Y curve is flattening again (+55bps spread), but with upward pressure on the long end driven by fiscal overhang (NATO rearmament, tax cuts). Strategic View: Short Duration Preferred – Laddered Treasuries and 1–3Y paper outperforming (e.g., SHY +0.65% YTD). Long duration remains risky despite falling inflation, given massive expected issuance. TIPS as Inflation Hedge – TIPs up +4.7% YTD continue to provide inflation-linked protection. Elevated defense and healthcare spending bolster this theme. Credit Call: High-Grade Corporate (LQD) – Valuation remains stretched, but spread stability gives buffer. Prefer LQD over HYG or CWB, where spreads are at risk due to funding costs and insurance withdrawal risk. Action: Maintain a core laddered Treasury base, with modest high-grade credit. Fade the long end on rallies; use TLT as a tactical short if 10Y breaches 4.4–4.5%. Commodities: Key Developments: Brent crude fell sharply (-6.1%) post-ceasefire, now at $67.95. Markets no longer price geopolitical premium. Iran’s production rising, US SPR untapped, and China’s buying shifting. Gold stabilizing at $3,335 after peaking on war fears; silver remains stronger at $36.34 (+26.2% YTD). Outlook: Oil: Short-Term Bearish to Neutral – Expect continued selling on rallies unless supply chain disruptions emerge. Range: $62–70/bbl. Gold: Wait for Re-Entry – Momentum slowing but structural inflation hedging still intact. Look for re-entry near $3,200. Position cautiously if dollar strengthens. Ags: Avoid – Corn and wheat continue to slide. Corn -7.5% MTD and -10.3% 3M; soybeans -11.7% YTD. No catalysts to reverse. Action: Tactical shorts in oil remain viable unless Iran–Strait of Hormuz risk flares again. Hedge tail risks with gold but reduce exposure if USD rallies. Currencies: DXY weakening slowly, but USD/JPY still at 144.5 (-9.42% 1Y), EUR/USD firm at 1.1681. Sterling outperforming: GBP/USD +8.2% 1Y. Implications: Short USD/JPY Holds – BOJ still dovish, yen oversold, risk-on flows support reversal. High conviction macro long on JPY. Watch GBP/USD – Strong rally, nearing overbought territory. Use strength to rotate to EUR if ECB surprises. EMFX Mixed – Avoid high beta EM (ZAR, TRY) due to USD and rates. Selective value in BRL, INR if USD pulls back further. Action: Maintain partial USD hedge via EUR and JPY. EMFX traders should stay risk-off short term; low carry + volatile backdrop makes it unattractive. Credit & Insurance Markets: Everest ($1.7bn reserves) and Aspen warning of “coverage breakdown” in US casualty insurance. Litigation exposure (PFAS, data privacy, social cases) is a systemic risk. FedEx’s collapse in China–US freight (-6% equity) is a red flag on consumption + supply chain health. Expect more insurers to restrict exposure to high-litigation US states or raise rates >25%. Positioning: Be cautious on mid-cap financials, reinsurers, and commercial real estate debt with liability linkage. Corporate credit: Avoid HY and convertibles. LQD remains the safe zone.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
XAUUSD Hello traders. Today’s first trade setup comes from the XAUUSD pair. The pair is currently positioned in an ideal buy zone, and I’ve spotted a potential long opportunity. There are three different take profit levels, all of which are listed below. Personally, I’ll be closing my position at the first TP level: 3366.66. However, keep in mind that two major economic events will be released today: 📌 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (QoQ) – Q1 📌 Initial Jobless Claims These are highly impactful events, so please manage your risk accordingly. 🔍 Trade Details ✔️ Timeframe: 30-Minute ✔️ Risk-to-Reward Ratio: 1:2.5 ✔️ Trade Direction: Buy ✔️ Entry Price: 3336.62 ✔️ Take Profit: 3366.67 / 3382.51 / 3392.36 ✔️ Stop Loss: 3324.97 🕒 If momentum fades or the price consolidates within a tight range, I’ll keep this trade open only until 23:00 (UTC+4). After that, I’ll close it manually—whether in profit or loss—depending on how the price action evolves. 🔔 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. I’m simply sharing a trade I’ve taken based on my personal trading system, strictly for educational and illustrative purposes. 📌 Interested in a systematic, data-driven trading approach? 💡 Follow the page and turn on notifications to stay updated on future trade setups and advanced market insights.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by Nurlan_PT
3
GOLD (XAUUSD): Updated Support & Resistance Analysis Here is my latest support and resistance analysis for Gold. Horizontal Structures Support 1: 3294 - 3312 area Support 2: 3231 - 3287 area Support 3: 3121 - 3176 area Resistance 1: 3338 - 3368 area Resistance 2: 3441 - 3451 area Resistance 3: 3493 - 3500 area Vertical Structures Vertical Support 1: Falling trend line Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDLong
by VasilyTrader
2
XAUMO REPORT: Monday, June 30, 2025 ⚔️ XAUUSD Daily Institutional Analysis Monday, June 30, 2025 ⸻ 1️⃣ Price Structure & Context Current Market Snapshot: • Daily Close (June 28): 3,273.40 • Key Technical Breaks: • Closed decisively below the 0.5 Fibonacci Retracement (3,288) • Breached and retested the Value Area Low (VAL) at 3,285.91 • Clear rejection of the 0.618 retracement (3,316) • Now sitting just above the final liquidity shelf around 3,250. Structural Interpretation: • This marks the final stage of distribution, transitioning into a momentum-driven decline. • Lower Highs: 3,500 > 3,420 > 3,390 > 3,330 • Lower Lows: 3,273 is the weakest daily close in 6 weeks. • Repeated failure to reclaim even modest retracements signals strong bearish acceptance. ⸻ 2️⃣ Volume Profile & Footprint Volume Clusters: • POC: 3,320.39 (major supply concentration) • VAH: 3,396.23 (untested for weeks) • VAL: 3,285.91 (broken and retested) Footprint Analysis: • Persistent negative delta below 3,300 (heavy hitting into bids) • Friday’s volume: 544K vs. 486K average, confirming conviction • No evidence of absorption or meaningful buying at the lows Institutional Interpretation: • 3,320–3,330: Active institutional sell zone • 3,285–3,250: Dense stop clusters from trapped longs • A clean break below 3,250 likely triggers a vacuum flush toward 3,200–3,180 ⸻ 3️⃣ Trend & Momentum • Daily Trend: Steepening bearish slope • Weekly Trend: Ongoing Wave 3 breakdown • Momentum Indicators: • RSI: Sub-45 (bearish bias) • ATR: Expanding (increased volatility) • Failed retracements reinforce selling pressure Conclusion: Momentum remains decisively bearish, accelerating into illiquid conditions. ⸻ 4️⃣ Wave & Fibonacci Confluence Measured Extension Targets: • 1.0 Extension: ~3,258 • 1.272 Extension: ~3,220 • 1.618 Extension: ~3,180 Interpretation: • Primary Target: 3,258–3,250 • Extended Target (if liquidity collapses): 3,180 ⸻ 5️⃣ Liquidity & July 4th Market Closure Schedule: • Monday, June 30: Full liquidity • Tuesday–Wednesday: Gradual volume decline • Thursday, July 3: Early closes, pre-holiday squaring • Friday, July 4: NY COMEX & CME Globex metals closed • Monday, July 7: Liquidity resumes Tactical Impact: • Monday is the only fully liquid session for reliable positioning. • Mid-week thin liquidity is highly prone to false rallies and stop hunts. • Real directional moves typically return after the holiday closure. ⸻ 6️⃣ Stop Hunt & Liquidity Pools Above Price: • 3,316–3,330: Clustered short stops above failed retracement • 3,350: Minor breakout stops Below Price: • 3,250–3,240: Dense stop pockets from dip buyers • Under 3,240: Limited liquidity down to ~3,200–3,180 Institutional Playbook: • Monday–Tuesday: Potential tactical squeeze up to 3,316–3,330 to trigger stops. • Post-sweep fade back to 3,260–3,250. • Friday likely muted due to closure. • Monday, July 7: High-probability directional expansion. ⸻ 7️⃣ Monday, June 30 – Precise Daily Trading Playbook ⸻ 🎯 Scenario A – Reversion Rally into Supply Setup: • Price rallies into 3,316–3,330 during London–NY overlap. • Footprint shows negative delta reappearing. Execution: • Entry: Sell limit 3,320–3,325 • Stop: 3,355 • Target 1: 3,260 • Target 2: 3,220–3,200 • Confidence: 70% ⸻ 🎯 Scenario B – Direct Breakdown Setup: • Price fails to reclaim 3,288 • 1-hour close below 3,250 on expanding volume Execution: • Entry: Sell stop 3,248 • Stop: 3,300 • Target 1: 3,200 • Target 2: 3,180 • Confidence: 85% ⸻ 🎯 Scenario C – Dead Range Pre-Holiday Setup: • Price consolidates between 3,270–3,290 • Volume collapses below 300K Execution: • No trade – stand aside until liquidity returns ⸻ 8️⃣ Hypothetical Institutional Trade Setup • Order Type: Sell Stop • Trigger: 1-hour close under 3,250 on 2x normal volume • Entry: 3,248 • Stop: 3,300 • Target: 3,200 • Position Size: 0.75–1% account risk • Probability: 85% ⸻ 9️⃣ Executive Summary ✅ Trend: Dominant bearish ✅ Momentum: Accelerating downwards ✅ Liquidity: Normal Monday, low mid-week, reactivating post-holiday ✅ Institutional Bias: Sell rallies and exploit stops under 3,250 ✅ Psychology: • Retail FOMO on rallies above 3,316 • Panic if 3,250 breaks ✅ Key Dates: • Monday: Execution window • Mid-week: Thin liquidity, false moves • Friday: Market closure • Monday, July 7: Expected main move ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This analysis is hypothetical and educational. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH (GOLD FOREX) In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character. Change of Character relates to market trend analysis. In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis. 🔘Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market. They believe that the trend is bullish , if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them. The market trend is considered to be bearish , if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them. Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice. One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs. According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs. 🔘Of course, trends do not last forever. A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading. Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation. 📉In a bearish trend, the main focus is the level of the last lower high. While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish . However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal, it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a confirmed violation of a bearish trend. In a bearish trend, CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern. Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold. After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave. 📈In a bullish trend, the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low. While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish. A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern. Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below. In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal. Change of Character is one of the simplest , yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know. First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
XAUUSD D1 Forecast: Gold at Pivotal 325x Support What's Next for the Yellow Metal? Today, we're zooming out to examine the broader picture for Gold (XAUUSD) on the Daily (D1) timeframe. Our latest analysis indicates that Gold has encountered a very strong, critical support level around the 325x region. This is a pivotal point that could significantly influence Gold's medium to long-term direction! 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: The Underlying Forces Influencing Gold While we've observed a degree of USD weakness stemming from speculations around the Federal Reserve (such as the rumours regarding Jerome Powell's replacement) and expectations of interest rate cuts, these factors haven't fully countered Gold's recent decline on the daily chart. Furthermore, the sustained ceasefire between Israel and Iran continues to temper Gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Nevertheless, the current price action at the robust 325x support level presents a significant technical signal. The impact of forthcoming US macroeconomic data (particularly the PCE Price Index on Friday) and speeches from FOMC members will be crucial in confirming or negating our projected movements for Gold. Should positive news for Gold align with this support holding, it could act as a potent catalyst. 📊 XAUUSD D1 Technical Analysis: Projecting Gold's Next Move Given that Gold has reached strong support at 325x, we can anticipate the following scenarios: Bounce from 325x (Potential Upside Phase): If the 325x area (which reinforces the 3264.400 support from image_e9d325.png) holds firm, we expect a strong reaction and an upward move for Gold. The initial target for this bounce would be the 332x region, aligning with resistance levels 3313.737 - 3330.483 from our previous analysis. On a broader timeframe (as illustrated in image_83845c.png), this corresponds to the resistance zone around 3326.022. This 332x area might represent a continuation pattern, suggesting it could be a corrective rally before the resumption of the larger trend. Resumption of Downtrend (After Reaching 332x): Once Gold reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and exhibits bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing candle, a pin bar, or a clear top formation), we anticipate a resumption of the downward movement. The next major target for this decline would be the 317x area, which correlates well with the strong support at 3173.052 on the larger timeframe (as depicted in image_83845c.png). 🎯 XAUUSD D1 Trading Plan: Your Long-Term Strategy Ahead! Considering the current D1 analysis, here's our actionable plan: 1. BUY PHASE (Bounce from Support): Entry: Observe price reaction in the 325x - 326x zone (specifically 3264.400). Only consider buying if there are clear bullish confirmations (e.g., a confirmed bullish pattern on the daily or 4-hour candle, a strong bounce from the zone with significant volume). SL (Stop Loss): Position just below the 325x support zone (e.g., 3245-3240, depending on confirmation). TP (Take Profit): 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3313.737 - 3320 - 3326.022 (key 332x zone). This will be our primary target for the potential bounce. 2. SELL PHASE (Downtrend Resumption): Entry: Once the price reaches and tests the 332x zone (3313.737 - 3330.483 / 3326.022) and shows bearish confirmation signals (e.g., a strong bearish engulfing, pin bar, or clear top formation). SL (Stop Loss): Position slightly above the 332x zone (e.g., 3335-3340). TP (Take Profit): 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 - 3200 - 3173.052 (final 317x target).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by MMFlowTrading
1
XAUUSD Bearish Setup | OB & FVG Confluence | Targeting 3230Title: XAUUSD Bearish Setup | OB & FVG Confluence | Targeting 3230 📉 Analysis Overview (4H Timeframe) Gold (XAUUSD) is currently in a clear downtrend, confirmed by lower highs and lower lows. Recent price action shows strong bearish momentum with confluences of key Bearish Order Blocks (OBs) and Fair Value Gaps (FVGs) forming ideal trade setups. --- 🔍 Key Technical Zones 🔴 Bearish OB: 3355–3370 🟧 FVG: 3340–3355 🔵 Sell Entry Zone: 3300–3310 ❌ Stop Loss: Above 3330 🟢 Bullish OB (Buy Zone): 3255–3265 🟧 Lower FVG (Potential Reaction Area): 3285–3295 --- 🎯 Take Profits TP1: 3270 TP2: 3255 TP3: 3230 --- 💡 Trade Idea Entering short near the 3300–3310 area, which aligns with a previous FVG and resistance area. Strong OB and FVG confluence above make 3330 a logical SL. The downside has clean imbalances and OBs to support price delivery lower. --- 📌 Bias: Bearish ⏱️ Timeframe: 4H 📊 Risk-Reward: Favorable with minimal drawdown near OB rejection zone. --- 💬 Drop your thoughts below or agree if this aligns with your view! #XAUUSD #Gold #SmartMoney #ICT #FVG #OrderBlock #PriceAction #TradingViewIdeas
FX:XAUUSDShort
by Advmawais1
1