Xauusd market This chart illustrates a potential bullish reversal setup for Gold Spot (XAU/USD) on the 2-hour timeframe. Here’s a breakdown of the analysis:
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🟦 Key Observations:
1. Current Price: $3,274.175 — down by 1.61%, indicating a recent bearish move.
2. Support Zone: Price has entered and reacted from a major demand zone (light blue box near 3,250), suggesting buying interest.
3. Projected Price Path (black dotted lines):
Initial bounce toward the first resistance around 3,320.
A pullback may occur, potentially retesting lower support before resuming upward movement.
Price is expected to climb toward higher supply zones at:
3,360
3,400
3,440
4. Bullish Reaction Icon (⚡️): Marks a potential reversal or liquidity grab before a bullish impulse.
5. News Event Icons (🇺🇸): U.S. economic data releases are anticipated near July 2–4, which could trigger volatility and confirm the direction.
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📈 Outlook Summary:
Bias: Bullish (short to mid-term)
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3,250 – 3,270 zone
Targets: 3,320 → 3,360 → 3,400 → 3,440
Invalidation: A clean break and close below 3,240 would challenge the bullish outlook.
Let me know if you’d like a breakdown of entry/exit strategies or risk management tips based on this setup.
Futures market
XAUMO REPORT: XAUUSD WEEKLY ANALYSIS
Period: Monday June 30 – Friday July 5
Focus: US Independence Day (July 4), NY Market Closure Impact
🟢1. Price Action Context
Last Week (ending June 28):
Weekly bearish engulfing closed near the lows (~3,250 area).
Series of failed rallies above 3,330.
Price compressed in a tight lower range—distribution, not accumulation.
Monday June 30 – Friday July 5:
Market begins in a low-confidence, low-volume environment.
Tuesday–Wednesday: traders will be positioning ahead of July 4 closure.
Thursday (July 4): NY market closed—no COMEX metals futures settlement.
Friday (July 5): NY market reopens—liquidity and volume surge back in.
🟡 2. Range, Support & Resistance
Composite Volume Profile:
VAH: ~3,410
POC: ~3,330 (where the heaviest volume has been transacted)
VAL: ~3,250 (final defense)
Support:
3,250: major structural shelf
3,200: next key liquidity target
Resistance:
3,330–3,350: loaded supply zone
3,390–3,420: overhead liquidity from prior weeks
Interpretation:
Price under POC, hugging VAL, is bearish.
Acceptance under 3,250 sets up a vacuum to 3,180–3,200.
🔵 3. Volume Footprint and Delta
Footprint Characteristics:
Strong negative delta (-21K) as price approached 3,250.
Buyers unable to lift offers at 3,300+.
Repeated ask dominance = supply persistence.
Institutional Read:
They’re selling into every bounce, and liquidity thinness around July 4 increases stop-hunt potential.
🟣 4. Trend and Wave Structure
Weekly trend: bearish
Daily trend: bearish with lower highs and lower lows
Wave count:
Wave 1: 3,500 ➡ 3,273
Wave 2: retrace ~3,330
Wave 3: active—projected target 3,180
🟤 5. Stop Hunt Zones
Above:
3,330–3,350: obvious short stops and breakout buy stops.
Below:
3,250: stop cluster from dip buyers and trapped longs.
Expected Behavior:
Institutions use Wednesday and low liquidity Thursday to spike stops before the real move on Friday.
Stop Hunt Scenario:
July 3–4: quick liquidity sweep above 3,330.
July 5 (Friday): NY reopen—supply steps in, drives price back down.
🟢 6. Market Closure & Liquidity Impact
NY Market Closure Schedule:
July 4 (Thursday):
NY COMEX metals closed for Independence Day.
Forex open but liquidity ~40% of normal.
Price can move erratically with minimal volume.
July 3 (Wednesday):
Early close in many US desks.
Position squaring—thin books.
July 5 (Friday):
Liquidity flood back in—true directional follow-through likely.
Implications:
Avoid heavy positioning during July 4 closure.
Expect false breakouts and “ghost candles”.
Major moves likely Friday July 5 during NY session.
🟠 7. Psychological Dynamics
Retail:
FOMO if price spikes above 3,330 on low liquidity.
Fear if price knifes under 3,250 without volume confirmation.
Institutions:
Use the holiday to:
Clear out stops.
Create liquidity pools.
Accumulate positions for Friday’s push.
🔴
8. Tangible Day-Trader Scenarios
🟢 Scenario A: Pre-Holiday Stop Hunt Trap
When: July 3–4
Price spikes over 3,330 on low volume.
Footprint shows negative delta quickly after.
Execution:
Sell limit ~3,340.
SL: 3,375.
TP: 3,200.
Note: Keep size reduced—thin conditions are volatile.
🟣 Scenario B: Post-Holiday Breakdown
When: Friday July 5
NY opens, volume returns.
Price fails to reclaim 3,250 after test.
Execution:
Sell stop 3,249.
SL: 3,310.
TP: 3,180.
Scale in as confirmation strengthens.
🟠 Scenario C: Holiday Range
When: July 4–early July 5 pre-NY
Price likely ranges 3,250–3,330.
Avoid entries unless volatility contraction ends with volume breakout.
🟡 9. Hypothetical Institutional Trade Plan
✅ Order Type: Sell Stop
✅ Entry: 3,249
✅ Stop Loss: 3,310
✅ Take Profit: 3,180
✅ Position Size: Max 0.5–1% account risk
✅ Trigger: NY session reopens Friday with volume confirmation
✅ Confidence: 85% (post-holiday breakdowns historically have high follow-through)
🟢 10. The Executive Recap
✅ Timeframe:June 30–July 5
✅ Trend:Weekly/Daily bearish
✅ Volume:Negative delta clusters
✅ Stop Hunts:
3,330–3,350 (trap)
3,250 (flush)
✅ Liquidity Event:July 4 closure reduces liquidity by ~60%
False moves likely
Major move probable Friday NY session
✅ Execution:
Low liquidity: reduced size
Confirmation: delta + volume
No chasing pre-closure
#GoldTrading #XAUUSD #ForexTrader #PriceActionTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #VolumeProfile #FootprintAnalysis #InstitutionalTrading #DayTrading #MarketAnalysis #ForexSignals #ComexGold #TradingStrategy #MarketPsychology #LiquidityTraps #StopHunt #NYMarketClosure #July4Trading #MetalsMarket #TrendAnalysis #WaveAnalysis #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #ForexEducation #CMEGroup #TradingMindset #RiskManagement
⚠️ Disclaimer : This is a purely educational scenario. You are the only one responsible for your risk.
gold strong upwardGold will continue its strong upward trend, the corrections seem to have come to an end, the gold price is certain to reach above $3500, if the current price and the price of 3235 break down, you should not panic, the direction of the gold price movement is still towards the ceiling ( ATH ) CMCMARKETS:GOLD
ICT Price Delivery Theory - 23-27 June ICT Price Delivery Theory Starting from first day of the week 23/06 with 3 session starting from Asia with half of London Accumulation (Blue Line) then NYC Start with Expansion and Retracement to hunt the stops for long and short positions (Orange Line)
Finally it goes to Reversal till 2nd NYC Session(Green line)
Gold Extends Decline Amid Easing Safe-Haven DemandGold continues its downward trajectory as safe-haven sentiment weakens. Geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel appear to be easing following a ceasefire agreement, reducing the perceived need for defensive assets such as gold.
At the same time, the market is reassessing its expectations regarding U.S. monetary policy. With the Federal Reserve unlikely to cut interest rates in the near term—and concerns about inflation resurfacing due to potential tax policy changes under former President Donald Trump—gold is facing a dual source of short-term pressure.
Investor sentiment is currently shifting toward riskier assets, as capital flows increasingly favor equities over gold. This risk-on environment has further eroded demand for traditional safe havens.
From a technical perspective, gold failed to break above the $3,350 level, signaling waning bullish momentum. This may indicate the onset of a short-term corrective phase.
On the political front, recent remarks by Donald Trump—including the possibility of a long-term diplomatic solution with Iran and discussions around replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—have introduced additional volatility into global financial markets.
Furthermore, according to market data I have reviewed, gold sales in the second quarter have shown signs of slowing. Buyers are becoming more cautious amid elevated price levels, while many investors are choosing to take profits, contributing to an increasingly two-sided market dynamic.
Despite this, I maintain a positive medium- to long-term outlook for gold. The U.S. dollar is currently at its weakest point in three and a half years, offering significant support. Notably, central banks managing over $5 trillion in assets are planning to increase their gold reserves within the next one to two years—a strong structural driver for gold’s long-term growth.
In summary, I believe gold is currently experiencing short-term corrective pressure due to a combination of geopolitical developments, interest rate expectations, and shifting investor sentiment. However, its long-term outlook remains solid, supported by a weaker dollar, global macroeconomic risks, and continued central bank accumulation.
Will the FALL continues?Last trade idea was fulfilled and went into the downside. Targeted 3250. If this 3250 major support area breaks down, we can expect a bigger downside move.
However, there’s a huge buying that happened at that level. It may first have a pullback upwards before it continues its decline. RSI is also at oversold level.
Bullish reversal can be confirmed if 3350 gets broken.
GOLD 4H: structure broken - phase reversal beginsTwo key directional signals were recorded on the gold chart: first, a breakdown of the ascending channel, followed by a confident downward exit from the triangle with a clear fixation under the $3297 boundary. Both figures worked independently, but consistently - and strengthened the impulse towards selling.
The price has already gone beyond the lower boundary of the triangle ($3297), confirming the bearish scenario. Candlesticks closing under the level and local consolidation from below is a characteristic formation before the momentum continues.
Technical parameters:
- Channel breakout: completed
- Triangle breakout: $3297 level
- Retest from below: expected as confirmation
- EMAs reversed downwards, structure broken
- Volumes strengthened at the moment of breakout
Tactical plan:
- Sell after retest of $3297
- Targets on the move: $3248 and $3201
- Stop: above $3305 (above the area of false outs).
The current structure indicates the end of the accumulation phase and the beginning of the downward momentum. As long as the price holds below $3297 - shorts are the priority.
"Pricing Perfection: The Thin Ice Beneath Record Highs"As markets push to all-time highs, the rally feels less like euphoria and more like walking a tightrope. What happens when the market prices in perfection
The S&P 500 is sitting at all-time highs, not because the world is perfect — but because the market is betting that it will be. This rally is no longer driven by surprises or revisions — it’s driven by expectations that everything will go right: inflation will cool, rates will drop, earnings will beat, AI will deliver, and geopolitical tensions will stay neatly compartmentalized.
In reality, we are walking on thin ice. Beneath the surface lies fragile market breadth, decelerating economic data, and a Fed that continues to speak hawkishly even as liquidity props things up. Any minor deviation from this “Goldilocks” scenario — a hot CPI, a guidance miss from a mega-cap, or a geopolitical headline — has the power to trigger sharp repricing.
When the market prices in perfection, it doesn’t need a bear to show up. It just needs something less than ideal. At these levels, risk becomes asymmetric — all reward is front-loaded, but the pain, if it comes, is unpriced and sudden.
The current equity landscape isn’t just optimistic — it’s priced for flawless execution across earnings, rates, geopolitics, and liquidity.
That leaves asymmetric downside risk if even a minor narrative breaks. Trump has become know for creating larger than minor narratives... ;)
XAUUSD – Smart Money Flow & Weekly OutlookGold reacted precisely at the key OB zone near 3270. Following a clear Break of Structure (BOS) on the H4, Smart Money may be redistributing positions.
🔍 Main scenario:
Price is expected to retrace to the 3349–3360 OB zone, where strong sell-side reactions may occur.
If that fails, the next likely move is a drop toward the high-liquidity demand zone at 3215, where buyers could re-enter.
📰 Key macro drivers:
Final GDP and PCE data show slight economic cooling in the US, reinforcing expectations that the Fed will maintain higher-for-longer rates.
Trump’s recent comments stir political uncertainty, increasing safe-haven demand for gold.
🎯 Strategy:
Look for confirmed short setups near 3349–3360.
Consider longs at 3215 if strong bullish reaction forms.
Gold 4H-figment of my imagination. Chart Overview:
Timeframe: 4H (MCX)
Current Price: ₹95,524
Volume: 1.6K
Trend: Short-term bearish
📉 Observations:
1. Break of Support Zones:
Multiple support zones have been drawn on the chart:
Around ₹96,200, ₹94,700, ₹91,800, and finally near ₹86,600–82,200.
Price is now trading below the ₹96,200 support, showing clear weakness.
2. Structure:
This looks like a lower high – lower low formation.
Recent price action has broken previous swing lows, indicating bearish momentum continuation.
3. Next Key Supports:
₹94,700 – could act as the next immediate support (minor bounce possible)
₹91,800 – stronger historical zone
₹86,600 to ₹82,200 – major demand zone (strong support last seen in April)
4. Volume Analysis:
Volume hasn’t spiked significantly on the recent fall, suggesting no panic yet, but also lack of buying interest.
📌 Conclusion:
The trend is weak and corrective, favoring sell on rise until price reclaims ₹96,200 convincingly.
Safe buy zone: Near ₹91,800–₹86,600, if price shows reversal signals.
Watch out: If ₹91,800 breaks, ₹86,600 or even ₹82,200 could be tested.
Market next move Disruption (Bearish Scenario):
1. False Breakout Risk:
The price has recently tested the lower support range (red boxes) several times without strong follow-through. This could suggest weak buying momentum.
2. Volume Spike Trap:
The large volume spike on the wick down may represent stop-loss hunting or a liquidity grab rather than true accumulation. If it were strong accumulation, we would expect a more sustained bounce.
3. Resistance Zone Ahead:
The price is nearing resistance around $3,275–$3,280, where previous breakdowns started. If it fails to break above this zone decisively, a rejection and continued downtrend is possible.
4. Lower High Formation:
The most recent price action could form a lower high, suggesting a continuation of the bearish trend instead of a reversal.
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🔽 Bearish Path (Alternative Projection):
Price retests $3,275–$3,280, fails to break out.
Drops below the red box support (~$3,260).
Heads toward the next support levels around $3,240 or lower.
📉 "Target becomes invalidated if price fails to hold above the red box support zone."
XAUUSD H4 Structure – Eyes on 3225 POI for Possible ContinuationXAUUSD has been in a structured 4H pullback, and price is now approaching a key high-timeframe zone around 3225 — marked by prior CHoCH and unmitigated price action. This level has the potential to act as a base for bullish continuation, but I will only act based on lower timeframe structure.
The trap for most traders is entering too early just because price hits a level.
My approach is different — I wait for the market to tell me when it’s ready.
🔍 The Flow I Follow (As Always):
HTF Context – Price is pulling back within a broader bullish range
POI Identified – 3225 zone = key area of interest
Wait for LTF Shift – I’ll only consider a trade if:
- M15 shows CHoCH (shift in internal structure)
- Followed by a BOS (momentum confirmation)
Then, and only then, I enter. Otherwise, I let it go.
🧠 Why This Matters:
This structure-first mindset keeps me out of random trades.
I don’t predict — I align.
No M15 shift?
No BOS?
No trade.
📊 Chart Context:
The chart attached shows:
Previous CHoCH levels
Recent BOS confirming internal structure break
Cleanly marked POI around 3225
Still no valid LTF shift — so it’s a “watch, not trade” phase
📖 From the Book Philosophy:
“The chart is the mirror. It reflects your level of patience, not your level of prediction.”
This setup reflects exactly what I teach in my book The Chart Is The Mirror — how to stop reacting to candles and start respecting structure.
No signals.
No indicators.
Just clean alignment of levels and psychology.
SILVER XAGUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS HIGHER TIME FRAME Macro and Geopolitical Drivers: Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could drive safe-haven demand for silver, though recent profit-taking amid such tensions indicates mixed trader sentiment. U.S. economic data releases, including consumer sentiment and Federal Reserve commentary, may impact expectations for interest rate cuts, which typically support precious metals. A stronger U.S. dollar or higher Treasury yields could pressure silver prices downward.
Supply and Demand Dynamics: Silver’s ongoing supply deficit (projected at 149 million ounces in 2025) and strong industrial demand from solar, electric vehicles, and electronics continue to support a bullish outlook. However, potential tariff impacts from U.S. policy under President Trump could dampen industrial demand, introducing volatility.
Weekly Outlook: Silver’s price action may oscillate between $34.176 (support) and $37.47009 (resistance) this week. Bullish momentum from supply deficits and industrial demand could push prices toward the resistance, but overbought signals (e.g., Stochastic Oscillator near 90) and potential short-selling pressure in COMEX futures might lead to consolidation or a pullback to support. Key drivers to watch include U.S. economic data, Fed commentary, and geopolitical developments.
Critical Note: The $37.47009 resistance may be tough to breach without significant catalysts, and large short positions could trigger volatility.
#silver
Gift Nifty bullishNSEIX:NIFTY1!
We are already bullish in Gift Nifty, in the analysis of which it was bought from 24930. Now the current market price of 25728 is near the previous resistance point 25856, which can become a profit book point, but the close of 26082 again gives bullishness to the market,
Otherwise, according to the report, buy support is again seen at 25350, which can be traded with a close stoploss of 25130.
Bearish market near bottom expecting bullish reversal soonWe are currently in a bearish structure until the price breaks above 3300.
Until then, we can look for sell opportunities around the key levels of 3281, 3290, and 3300.
Downside targets are in the range of 3255 to 3235,
which also align with the 1-hour timeframe bullish order blocks.
From this higher timeframe bullish order block zone,
we may also see a potential bullish reversal.
Additionally, a countertrend scalp buy entry is possible around 3264–3267,
with upside targets at 3281, 3290, and 3300.