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2025-02-20 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Interesting day ahead of us. Selling was strong but bulls retraced 70% of it already. If bears come around again and keep this a lower high below 22230, it would show some strength and we could expect another test of 22000. The daily chart looks much more bullish than bearish. Big tails below bars and all bars closing above their mid-point. We have also touched the bull trend line above the daily 20ema. If anything I have a long bias but due to Opex I tend to lean neutral for tomorrow. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 22000 - 22500 bull case: Another dip another bad follow-through. Bulls buy it all and they have all the arguments on their side. They bought where they had to and we now have a decent two-legged pull-back to the bull trend line. Market is free to melt higher but tomorrow is opex and I fare best when I lean neutral on those days and trade less. Invalidation is below 21900. bear case: Bears can generate enough selling pressure to go down hard but as soon as the momentum is gone, so are the bears and market just reverses. I doubt bears can keep this a lower high and continue inside the bear channel. If they do, a weekly close below 22k would be amazing for them. That is the only target I have for them for tomorrow because I can’t imagine this going below 21900. Above 22200 bears just have to cover and we could accelerate upwards. Invalidation is above 22230. short term: Neutral. No bigger opinion on who wins this tomorrow. Both have reasonable arguments and we are inside the big bull channel and now also inside a bear channel. I wait for strong momentum again. medium-long term - Update from 2024-02-16: Bulls are on their way of making a new ath again. So no bearish thoughts until market character changes dramatically again. I can see this going up to 23000 but not beyond. No bigger opinion on a medium-term outlook for this. trade of the day: Buying 22k. Was close enough to the bull trend line, daily 20ema and bears found no acceptance below it.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD strong bullish mode opportunity all time high market (gold big flying soon) 1. Resistance Area May Not Hold The marked resistance area could be weak if bullish momentum continues strongly, especially with a breakout above recent highs. If price consolidates near resistance without strong rejection, it may indicate accumulation rather than reversal 2. Support Areas Could Fail The support zones might not hold if there's a strong bearish catalyst, like economic news or a shift in market sentiment. A breakdown below the strong bullish support area could signal a deeper pullback. 3. Alternative Scenarios Instead of bouncing from the lower support, the price might consolidate and range before a clear breakout direction. A false breakout above resistance could trigger a liquidity grab, leading to a sharp drop instead of an upward move. 4. Indicators & Confirmation Needed The chart does not include indicators like RSI, MACD, or moving averages, which could provide additional confirmation
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Fx_Oliviaa
Gold Double Top Form - Selling opportunityGold price over the previous week has declined significantly creating a double top (bearish reversal pattern) in the process. I will wait patiently for price to tap into the order block, indicated by a rectangle as seen on the charts. After which I will look for a bearish pattern, preferably using candlesticks on the 15mins timeframe for a sell. My take profit will be at the previous week's low or the low indicated by a line.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by akademik-Trader
Gold (XAU/USD) Bullish Trend – Retest of Support Before BreakoutGold (XAU/USD) Bullish Trend – Retest of Support Before Breakout 🚀 📊 Timeframe: 4H 💰 Current Price: $2,938 📈 Trend: Strong Uptrend with Higher Highs & Higher Lows Market Overview: Gold is following a well-established bullish trend, consistently respecting the trendline support and bouncing off key support zones. The price is currently retesting a critical support level at $2,865, which aligns with previous breakout zones. Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Support Zones: $2,865 (Major trendline support) ✅ Resistance Zones: $3,000 (Psychological level & next target) ✅ Potential Deeper Pullback: $2,730 (Secondary support) Technical Analysis: 🔹 Trendline Holding: Price has respected the trendline multiple times, acting as dynamic support. 🔹 Support Zone Confirmation: Each dip into the support zones has led to a continuation of the uptrend. 🔹 Potential Breakout Towards $3,000: If support holds, gold could target the psychological level of $3,000. Trade Plan: 🔹 Bullish Scenario: A successful retest of $2,865 with bullish confirmation (strong candles, wicks rejecting lower levels) could trigger an entry. Target: $3,000 (resistance zone) 🔹 Bearish Scenario: If price breaks below $2,865, we could see a correction to $2,730 before resuming the uptrend.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by NexusTradesZone
Gold Analysis – Ascending Channel with Resistance RejectionGold (XAU/USD) Analysis – Ascending Channel with Resistance Rejection 📉 📊 Timeframe: 4H 💰 Current Price: $2,939 📈 Trend: Uptrend within an ascending channel Market Overview: Gold is currently trading inside an ascending channel, respecting both dynamic support and resistance. However, the price has shown multiple rejections at the resistance zone, indicating a potential pullback. Key Levels to Watch: ✅ Resistance Zone: $2,950 - $2,960 (Strong rejection area) ✅ Support Levels: $2,920 (Dynamic support), $2,882 (Major support) ✅ Critical Breakdown Level: Below $2,882 could signal a deeper correction Technical Pattern: 🔹 Double Top Formation at Resistance: Price failed to break higher, showing a bearish reaction. 🔹 Dynamic Support Retest: The price could test the ascending channel support near $2,920. 🔹 Lower Highs Forming: A sign of weakening bullish momentum. Trade Plan: 🔹 Bearish Scenario: If price rejects the resistance again, expect a pullback towards $2,920 - $2,910. A breakdown below the ascending channel could trigger a drop to $2,882 or lower. 🔹 Bullish Scenario: If price holds above $2,920, bulls may attempt another breakout towards $2,960+.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by NexusTradesZone
Gold pulled back and corrected, but did not change its gains.Technical analysis of gold: The strong upward trend has not stopped, and the gold price has hit a new high during the day. The continuous new highs of gold also confirm the energy and market trend of the bulls, but we have also made it clear that even if the market is very strong, it is not recommended to chase more. The more it falls back, the probability of being trapped can be avoided to a large extent! After gold hit a new record high today, some bulls took profits, so there was a wave of correction, but this correction is expected to be limited, so it is not advisable to chase the short operation, and the short short can be quickly entered and exited. As long as it does not fall below the 2916-20 range in the future, it is still an opportunity to go long. After all, the trend and fundamentals are still bullish, so pay attention to the long position near 2920; At present, the moving average support of the market pattern is rising, and the short-term moving average support of the market that falls back and adjusts is temporarily pierced. The focus is still on the long-term moving average support level of 2920 and the low point of 2918 yesterday. When the gold price adjusts to around 2920, you can start to go long. If the market continues to adjust but does not fall below 2918, you will still be bullish! This round of target is to continue to set a new high! On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold is recommended to go long on the correction, supplemented by shorting on the rebound. The short-term focus on the resistance of 2954-2960 on the upper side and the short-term focus on the support of 2918-2920 on the lower side. Friends must keep up with the rhythm. Gold operation strategy reference: Short order strategy: Sell gold when it rebounds to 2950-2953 TP around 2940-2930 Long order strategy: Buy gold when it falls back to 2918-2920 TP around 2930-2940
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by phsephse
1
Bearish drop off 50% Fibonacci resistance?COPPER is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could reverse from this level to our take profit. Entry: 4.6819 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Stop loss: 4.7856 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 4.5406 Why we like it: There is a pullback support. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:COPPERShort
by VantageMarkets
ALUMINIUM Approaches Major Resistance – Will Sellers Step In?PEPPERSTONE:ALUMINIUM is approaching a significant supply zone, an area that has previously acted as strong resistance, indicating the potential for a pullback if sellers regain control. If the market confirms resistance at this level, the price could move downward toward the 2,677 level, which serves as a logical target for this setup. Conversely, a failure to hold resistance could indicate a potential bullish shift and further upside. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmation signals, such as bearish engulfing candles, long upper wicks rejecting the supply zone, or increased selling volume, before considering short positions. Let me know your thoughts or any additional insights!"
FUSIONMARKETS:XALUSDShort
by DanieIM
REAL TIME DATA XAUUSD⚡ Ultra-Aggressive Execution Plan 🚀 ⏳ Price Action Confirmation: Look for a rejection candle at $2,948.00 before entering short. 🏦 Order Flow Validation: Monitor for large sell orders stacking up near $2,950.00. 🔥 Institutional Expectation: Price likely to reject from $2,950.00 and retrace toward $2,938.00. 🔥 FINAL DECISION – MILKING THE MARKET STRATEGY! 🏆💰🚀 📌 Verdict: SELL at resistance ($2,948.00) 📌 Exact Entry: $2,948.00 📌 Stop-Loss: $2,953.00 📌 Take-Profit: $2,938.00 📌 Institutional Bias: Potential reversal after liquidity grab above $2,950.00. 🚀 SHORT GOLD & MILK THE MARKET! 💰🔥📊
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by MAHARLIKA_FX
Will We See the Euro Trading Below Par?CME: Micro EUR/USD Futures ( CME_MINI:M6E1! ) #Microfutures Since the US election last November, the Euro currency has lost ground against the US dollar, with the EUR/USD exchange rate sliding from 1.08 to as low as 1.02. A combination of new policies from the Trump administration aims to strengthen the dollar. Recent efforts to end the geopolitical crisis will not support the euro. On the contrary, they could push the European common currency below the critical 1-dollar level. Quick Review of the EUR/USD Price Trend The euro has swung widely against central bank policies and geopolitical events: • 2020: The Fed implemented massive stimulus measures in response to the pandemic. Lowering interest rates and increasing money supply reduced the value of the USD • 2021: The faster vaccine rollout and quicker reopening of the US economy boosted economic growth and investor sentiment towards the USD • 2022: (1) The Fed raised interest rates to combat inflation, making the USD more attractive to investors compared to the Euro. (2) Europe faced an energy crisis due to its dependence on Russian gas. This crisis led to economic uncertainty and weakened the euro. (3) Ongoing geopolitical tensions created economic instability in Europe, further weakening the euro against the USD • Q4 2022 and 2023: European Central Bank abandoned its long-held zero-rate policy in September 2022. It raised rates eight times to 4.00%. These actions narrowed the interest rate differentials between the US and Europe, and helped the euro rebound • 2024: The EUR/USD moved mainly sideways in the range of 1.06 and 1.12. Fed easing and rebounds of US inflation contributed to the mild volatility. • Q4 2024 to Current. Dollar ascended quickly after the election win of Donald Trump. Investors expect strong dollar with the support of the new America First policies Ukraine Peace Talks and Possible Outcomes On February 12th, Presidents Trump and Putin agreed to immediately start negotiations to end the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. On February 18th, US and Russian officials held peace talks in Saudi Arabia. The two sides agreed to create a high-level team to lead the Ukraine peace talks. Neither Ukraine nor the EU participated in the meeting. How the peace talks would progress remain highly uncertain. Using Game Theory, we could break them down into two mutually exclusive and collectively inclusive outcomes: • Peace: US, Russia, Ukraine and the EU sign a peace agreement to end the conflict and ensure long-lasting peace. Whether it will be a fair treaty is a hotly debated topic. • No-Peace: Peace talks break down. The 3-year-long conflict continues. This could last for years but eventually will lead to a win/loss outcome or a draw. From an investing perspective, “No-Peace” is equivalent to “Risk On”. It may imply higher gold prices, higher energy costs and lower equity value. Meanwhile, “Peace” means “Risk Off”. We may see declining gold, lower oil and gas, and rising stock prices. However, it would be difficult to pick the price direction if we can’t predict the outcome. Peace or No Peace – A Steep Cost for Europe For better or worse, the recent events are a wakeup call to European countries. The US had defense spending totaling $967 billion in 2024, which is 3.49% of its GDP. For a comparison, the total defense spending for EU member states reached $358 billion in 2024. This represents around 1.9% of the EU's GDP • The US accounted for 73% of the defense spending in the 32 countries in NATO • Since 2022, the US contributed to 2/3 of all the financial aids sending to Ukraine The US administration intends to cut its financial support. Europe will have to increase defense spending dramatically. In a worst case, a complete breakdown in Cross-Atlantic relations could see the US exiting NATO and all US troops withdrawing from Europe. How much is the spending gap? In 2024, Russia had defense budget of $462 billion, or 6.7% of its GDP. Ukraine had defense budget of $40 billion, or 22% of its GDP. • EU plus Ukraine spent $64 billion less than Russia in defense budget. In my opinion, in a Peace scenario and with reduced US involvement, the EU defense budget must surpass that of Russia to ensure Ukraine to stay on top. I find this to be 2.5% of GDP. This means a 32% increase or $471 billion in total defense spending. For No-Peace, the EU will be fighting an active war. NATO will need to maintain a standing army of 1 million troops and rebuild an entire defense industry. In this scenario, I feel that the defense budget needs to double 5% of GDP. budget to raise a large army and rebuild an entire defense industry. This means a 163% increase or $942 billion in total defense spending. If the above numbers sound outrageous, Israel, a country constantly fighting for its survival, will serve as a good refence point. In 2024, Israel's defense spending amounted to 117.5 billion Israeli shekels (around $32.5 billion USD), which is 6.7% of its GDP. The EU has an estimated GDP growth at 0.9% in 2024 and a forecast growth of 1.5% in 2025. The defense budget increase will cause mandatory cuts in non-defense spending. The combined effect will be negative, pushing GDP growth into a negative territory. In my opinion, re-arming Europe is critical to its survival. However, defense buildup comes at a steep cost. The expectations of lower GDP growth will push the value of Euro currency lower, likely below the 1-dollar critical level. Commitment of Traders shows diminishing bullish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 11th, total Open Interest (OI) for CME Euro FX Futures is 622,873 contracts. “Asset Manager” (i.e., hedge funds) own 338,182 in Long, 177,937 in Short and 35,597 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 1.9:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 1,014 while increasing short positions by 2,249. • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on the Euro. Trade Setup with Micro Euro/USD Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the CME Micro Euro/USD Futures ($M6E). M6E contracts have a notional value of 12,500 euro. With February 19th settlement price of 1.0435, each March contract (M6EH5) has a notional value of $13,044. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $260. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March M6E contract and the euro drops to $0.99. A short futures position would gain $668.75 (= (1.0435 – 0.99) x $12500). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +257% (= 668.75 / 260). The risk of shorting euro futures is rising euro. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set a stop-loss at 1.06 when entering the short order at 1.0435. If euro rebounds, the maximum loss would be $206.25 ( = (1.06 – 1.0435) *12500). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
CME_MINI:M6E1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
XAUUSD (Gold) Analysis Report: Market Trends and Future OutlookXAUUSD (Gold) Current Market Overview Gold has experienced a slight downturn recently, reflecting broader market uncertainties and shifts in investor sentiment. However, technical analysis indicates that a bullish move could be on the horizon if certain conditions are met. Technical Analysis Trendline and Key Levels The current analysis suggests that the market is slightly bearish. However, a potential bullish move could be observed if the market breaks above the established trendline. Key levels to watch include: Retracement Level: 2342.35 Target Levels: 2483.74 and 2601.55 A break above the trendline and the retracement level of 2342.35 could set the stage for upward movement, potentially reaching the target levels of 2483.74 and 2601.55. Conclusion While the gold market currently shows signs of a slight downtrend, a bullish move could be imminent if critical technical levels are breached. As always, it is essential for traders and investors to conduct thorough analysis and consider all factors before making any decisions. This report aims to provide insights and assist in understanding the potential future movements in the XAUUSD (Gold) market. Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. We are not SEBI registered advisors.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Kaviarasu_Chandrasekar