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XAUUSD Sell ViewGold Holds Steady as Focus Shifts to Fed Policy Over Geopolitical Risk - Gold prices remained resilient. The US Dollar Index slipped 0.23% to 97.74, while U.S. equities ended mixed as markets braced for Federal Reserve policy signals. - The Israel-Iran ceasefire has eased geopolitical concerns, typically a bearish signal for gold. However, the metal’s continued strength, outperforming the weaker dollar, points to renewed institutional and retail accumulation. This highlights a key shift: investors are now prioritising monetary policy outlooks over crisis-driven moves. - All eyes are on Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony, with particular focus on his comments regarding tariffs and interest rates. The CME’s FedWatch tool now shows a 24.8% probability of a July rate cut. Powell’s cautious tone—balancing inflation risks from potential tariffs against economic softness—has added uncertainty to the rate path, especially amid political pressure from the Trump administration. - Gold’s recent price action suggests it’s evolving from a pure safe-haven asset into a hedge against broader monetary and economic instability. With geopolitical tensions easing, traders are now closely watching the Fed’s next steps and the dollar’s direction as key drivers of gold’s trajectory.
FX:XAUUSDShort
by GOLDFXCC
Will the gold price head for 3250 today?Will the gold price head for 3250 today? Latest gold market dynamics and analysis (as of June 27, 2025) Analysis of core influencing factors (1) Geopolitical risks: Risk aversion has cooled but the heat has not subsided Recently, the conflict between Israel and Iran has come to a temporary end. Trump said both sides were "exhausted" and the market's risk aversion demand has declined. But potential risks still exist, such as the attack on Iran's nuclear facilities and the friction in Red Sea shipping. The safe-haven attribute of gold is still in a "wait and see" state. 2) Fed policy differences: interest rate cut expectations fluctuate There are obvious differences between hawks and doves within the Fed. Some members are worried about inflation stickiness, while others support early interest rate cuts. The US dollar index fluctuates in the range of 97-99, and gold shows the linkage characteristics of "dollar rises and falls, and dollar falls and rises". The US PCE data released tonight is the key. If inflation is lower than expected, it may strengthen the expectation of interest rate cuts and boost gold prices; otherwise, it may suppress gold prices. Technical support and resistance: Short-term: $3,280, $3,250 Key resistance: $3,300-3,350-3,380, $3,400 Market sentiment: Gold ETF positions decreased (reduced by 2.29 tons on June 25), indicating that some funds have taken profits, but the medium- and long-term bullish logic has not changed. 4. Investment strategy recommendations Short-term: Range shock 1: As long as the gold price is below $3,300, it is a short-selling idea, short at high prices, stop loss 3300-3305. 2: The key price of the support rebound below: 3280-3250--3165. You can try to go long with a light position at the above price. Be sure to set a stop loss when going long.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by louisa111222
Gold might rebound significantly today, with a potential reversa Gold might rebound significantly today, with a potential reversal zone around 3250–3285. Technically , gold has been in a bear market for the second consecutive week, pushing the RSI into the oversold zone up to 1H timeframe. This suggests a potential rebound soon, allowing the bears to take a breather before resuming the downtrend. Additionally, the price has now approached the ascending trendline that has been drawn since the beginning of the year (spanning six months) making it a significant level (The longer the trendline holds, the more significant its technical relevance), and the current test could trigger a price reaction. Structurally, gold has been range-bound within the 3200–3400 consolidation zone for several months. This has created many supports and resistances in that range, making it difficult for prices to break below that zone in a single move. The 3250–3280 zone is seen as a potential turning point, supported by: 1. The ascending trendline intersecting near 3255 2. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior leg aligning near 3250 3. The support zone hold around 3270-3280 Based on an Elliott Wave theory , the market may currently be in a Complex Corrective Wave or Combination Corrective Wave, consisting of the series of a-b-c subwaves. The current move appears to be approaching the end of minor wave a, with wave b rebound anticipated to follow. From a macroeconomic view , today’s release of the PCE inflation data — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge — and FOMC members speak, could cause significant volatility to gold prices. This is a suitable opportunity for a price reversal during high volatility. The price may be pressured lower before rebounding. The current pressure seem to stem from the market expectations that PCE data will increase due to recent surges in oil prices and the potential inflationary effects of tariffs, leading to current gold selling pressure as market less expect the Fed rate cut. However, if PCE data surprises to the downside, it could trigger the opposite reaction, a gold rebound, as the market would start to price in a higher likelihood of earlier Fed rate cuts. Even if PCE released high, as expected, there might be positions unwind to take profit once the fact is realized, pushing gold prices up. Therefore, the odds currently favor a buy-on-dip in gold. However, even if a price reversal occurs today, a stable upward trend cannot be expected yet. The price remains in a corrective wave, and the Fed is unlikely to rush interest rate cuts soon. They will likely wait for clarity on Trump's reciprocal tariff policy and their economic impact. Moreover, inflation has not yet reached the Fed's target of 2.0%. Therefore, the market could still be disappointed by the Fed's cautious stance during this period, which would continue to pressure gold prices. The expected rebound range is about $70–$100, with an initial target of around 3370–3400, before potentially reversing downward again. Gold prices next week are likely to remain in a rebound theme . Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:GOLDLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil
XAU/USD – Bullish Reversal in Motion? Watch the Breakout ZoneGold just gave us a critical reaction off a key confluence zone — and bulls might finally be waking up. Here's the breakdown: 🔹 Falling Wedge Breakout:
Price respected the wedge support beautifully around the 0.382-0.5 Fib retracement and has now closed above the upper descending trendline. The falling wedge is a bullish reversal pattern, and we may be witnessing the early stages of a trend shift. 🔹 EMAs Realignment Pending:
Price is now testing the 20 and 50 EMAs — a clean break and close above them would likely trigger algorithmic momentum back into bullish continuation, especially if we see a flip of the 0.382 Fib at $3,324 as support. 🔹 Upside Targets: * TP1: $3,372 (0.236 Fib) * TP2: $3,450 (previous structure high) * TP3: $3,539 (full range expansion) 🔹 Invalidation Below:
A break back inside the wedge and below $3,285 would invalidate the bullish bias and likely open the path to deeper correction toward $3,251 or even $3,217. 📌 Key Insight:
The best trades aren’t about prediction — they’re about preparation. This setup is all about reacting to price as it confirms. Let the market tell you when it’s ready to move, then strike with confidence and precision. 💡 Watching for bullish retest + volume confirmation before entering long.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WrightWayInvestments
XAUUSD: Gold's Muted Ascent Below $3350 XAUUSD: Gold's Muted Ascent Below $3350 – Navigating Key Levels Amidst USD Weakness! Hello TradingView Community! Let's delve into the intricate world of Gold (XAUUSD) today. The yellow metal is showing a subtle positive bias, largely influenced by a weaker US Dollar, yet a decisive bullish breakout above the $3350 mark remains elusive. 🌍 Macroeconomic Landscape: Forces Shaping Gold's Path Gold has maintained a slight positive stance for the second consecutive day, but it's struggling to find significant follow-through, staying below the $3350 level in early European trading. USD Under Pressure – A Tailwind for Gold: The primary driver for Gold's recent strength is the weakening US Dollar. Reports suggesting President Trump is considering replacing Fed Governor Jerome Powell have sparked concerns about the US central bank's future independence. This speculation has fueled market expectations for further Fed rate cuts this year, pushing the USD to its lowest point since March 2022, thereby providing support for non-yielding assets like Gold. Cautious Outlook Prevails: Despite USD weakness, a definitive bullish trend for Gold is not yet confirmed. The ongoing ceasefire between Israel and Iran holds firm, with prevailing optimism limiting significant safe-haven rallies. This complex environment necessitates caution before confirming a definitive bottom for Gold or positioning for a substantial recovery from levels below $3300. Key Data Ahead: Traders are keenly awaiting upcoming US macroeconomic data and speeches from FOMC members. These insights will be crucial in influencing XAU/USD, particularly ahead of Friday's pivotal US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index release. 📊 XAUUSD Technical Outlook: Pinpointing Strategic Zones Based on recent technical analysis (referencing image_e9d325.png for key levels), Gold is in a consolidation phase after a recent sharp decline, trading around the $329X mark. Price action below shorter-term moving averages suggests either lingering bearish pressure or an accumulation phase. Strong Support Zones (Potential Buy Areas): Critical demand areas are identified around 3294.414, 3276.122, and notably 3264.400. These levels are crucial for potential price bounces. Key Resistance Zones (Potential Sell Areas): Significant supply zones are found at 3313.737, 3321.466, 3330.483, and 3341.947. These are points where selling pressure may emerge. 🎯 XAUUSD Trading Plan: Your Actionable Strategy Here's a breakdown of the strategic entry and exit points for your XAUUSD trades: BUY ZONE (Strong Support - Long-Term Bias): Entry: 3266 - 3264 SL: 3270 TP: 3280 - 3284 - 3290 - 3295 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3320 BUY SCALP (Quick Buy at Intermediate Support): Entry: 3284 - 3282 SL: 3278 TP: 3288 - 3292 - 3296 - 3300 - 3305 - 3310 - 3320 - 3330 SELL ZONE (Key Resistance): Entry: 3331 - 3333 SL: 3337 TP: 3326 - 3320 - 3316 - 3310 - 3305 - 3300 SELL SCALP (Quick Sell at Near Resistance): Entry: 3313 - 3315 SL: 3320 TP: 3310 - 3305 - 3300 - 3295 - 3290 - 3280 ⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor Closely: US Macro Data: Friday's US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is paramount for market direction. FOMC Member Speeches: Any official comments on monetary policy or inflation outlook will significantly impact USD and Gold. Geopolitical Stability: Developments related to the Israel-Iran ceasefire can influence safe-haven demand.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by MMFlowTrading
Report - 27 june1. Bond Market Exodus: Why Investors Are Ditching US Long-Term Debt In Q2 2025, net outflows from US long-dated bond funds hit $11 billion, marking the fastest pace since early 2020. This comes despite more than $39 billion pouring into short-dated funds, which are still yielding attractive real returns due to the Fed's high policy rate. This flight from the long end is not just about yield differentials — it’s a clear repricing of sovereign risk and fiscal sustainability. The market is beginning to fear that the US is no longer a guaranteed safe haven at the long-duration end of the curve. President Trump’s renewed tax policies — projected to add trillions to the national debt — are weighing on confidence, while incoming tariffs and the risk of structurally higher inflation amplify concerns. “There is a lot of concern domestically and from the foreign investor community about owning the long end of the Treasury curve.” – Bill Campbell, DoubleLine Market Implication: The term premium is re-emerging — longer bonds must offer significantly higher yields to attract buyers. In real terms, longer-dated Treasuries are down ~1% this quarter, clawing back losses after tariff-induced volatility in April. Strategic Allocation: Stay overweight short-duration debt (SHY, BIL, floating-rate notes) for yield preservation and minimal duration risk. Avoid duration extension. TLT, ZROZ, and long-dated corporates may face additional downside as issuance ramps and demand fades. Consider non-dollar fixed income exposure (e.g., EU sovereigns, South Africa, Brazil), particularly where inflation targeting credibility is rising. Macro Impact: This shift jeopardizes debt affordability. With $33 trillion in debt and rising interest expense, the US could face debt spiral risks unless inflation softens or fiscal discipline returns. An elevated term premium can ripple into mortgages, corporate borrowing, and municipal finance, potentially crowding out private investment. 2. Geopolitical Tensions: Iran's Nuclear Program and the Market's Response Despite US claims of obliterating Iran’s nuclear capabilities in recent strikes, preliminary European intelligence indicates Iran’s 408kg stockpile of highly enriched uranium remains largely intact. It was reportedly dispersed before the attacks — undercutting the narrative of complete neutralization. President Trump’s remarks, suggesting “nothing was taken out” of the main Fordow facility due to logistical constraints, reflect a public relations overstatement rather than a decisive strategic victory. While US defense officials stand by the attack’s symbolic impact, reports suggest the nuclear program was set back by months, not years. “Trump exaggerated because he needed to... Anyone who heard his remarks could tell there was a different reality.” — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Market Implication: The gold price remains elevated, closing at $3,328.22, up 0.15% on the day, and +26.81% YTD — a clear hedge against geopolitical instability. Oil markets initially spiked but reversed as the Israel-Iran ceasefire held. Brent Crude ended at $67.14, down -6.1% over the week. Defense stocks, particularly in US and Israeli names, are seeing flows as investors anticipate further defense budget expansions. Strategic Allocation: Hold or overweight gold (GLD, XAUUSD) in strategic portfolios as a volatility hedge. Avoid chasing oil at interim highs unless further strikes materialize — use energy exposure as a short-term trade, not a structural bet. Monitor Iranian retaliation risk and its effect on shipping lanes, which would impact insurance costs and transport-linked equities. Macro Impact: With Iran's capacity largely intact, nuclear diplomacy is effectively frozen. The uncertainty adds to regional instability, and markets may underprice the risk of a re-escalation. Meanwhile, continued weapons development forces global powers to shift attention (and potentially resources) away from economic diplomacy. 3. US Export Collapse: Trade Policy Bites the Domestic Economy In May, US goods exports fell by $9.7 billion (–5.2%), marking the largest monthly decline since the pandemic crash in 2020, according to the Census Bureau. Exports totaled $179.2 billion, sharply down from April’s figures. This contraction followed President Trump’s "Liberation Day" tariff blitz, which spooked global trading partners. Despite some tariff suspensions, others — such as a blanket 10% duty and sector-specific metals tariffs — remain active. “Amid the de-escalation phase of the tariff story, we are now seeing an unwind in both imports and exports.” — James Knightley, ING Key Export Drivers: Industrial supplies (crude oil, metals): Down 13.6% in May after a 16% surge in April. Vehicle exports: Rebounded +3.5% after a 20% drop in April. Trade deficit: Widened to $96.6 billion, above expectations. Practical Market Implications: Logistics & industrial names (FedEx, Caterpillar) face short-term margin pressure. Commodities sensitive to trade flows — particularly metals — could see softening demand (watch steel and copper ETFs like SLX and COPX). Dollar exposure may become more volatile as lower exports pressure the current account, contributing to a weaker dollar narrative. Broader Economic Impact: With inventories full and international demand softening, US manufacturing will decelerate. Capex and employment in export-sensitive sectors are at risk if the trade environment doesn’t stabilize. Investor Strategy: Short-term caution on transportation (e.g., FedEx reported a sharp drop in China-US freight). Reallocate toward domestic-facing sectors (utilities, consumer staples) that are more insulated from trade. Currency traders may view this as a signal to fade the USD if combined with Fed dovishness. 4. US Debt Avalanche: The Bond Exodus and What It Means for Markets Investors are rapidly fleeing long-term US bonds, with net outflows reaching $11 billion in Q2, the sharpest retreat since early 2020, according to EPFR data. This comes amid growing concern over the US’s ballooning debt load, worsened by Trump’s proposed tax cuts and trade tariffs. “It’s a symptom of a much bigger problem... concern about owning the long end of the Treasury curve.” — Bill Campbell, DoubleLine Why It Matters: Trump's tax plan is forecast to add trillions to federal debt, compelling the Treasury to issue a flood of bonds. Simultaneously, tariffs are feared to fuel inflation, which erodes bond values — especially those with long durations. Market Movement: Long-term US debt fell ~1% in Q2 (Bloomberg index). In contrast, short-term US bond funds gained $39 billion in inflows, driven by high yields at the front end of the curve. “With inflation still above target and heavy government supply, this is driving skittishness about the long end.” — Robert Tipp, PGIM Practical Investment Outlook: Expect higher yields at the long end of the curve if debt issuance remains elevated and inflation expectations rise. Flattening yield curve risk if short-end rates remain high while long-end selling continues. Duration-sensitive portfolios (e.g. pensions) may suffer performance drag unless repositioned. Global Spillovers: A weaker long bond market raises benchmark rates globally, making it costlier for emerging markets to borrow. Foreign investors (e.g., Japan and China) may diversify out of Treasuries, potentially moving capital into higher-yield EM debt or European assets. The sell-off contributes to dollar weakness, especially when coupled with trade disruptions and Trump’s criticism of the Fed. Investor Strategy: Reduce duration exposure; consider floating-rate notes or shorter-dated fixed income instruments. Explore international bonds, especially EM local currency debt, which is currently outperforming. Use steepening yield curve trades (e.g., 2s/10s steepeners) as a way to hedge fiscal risks. 5. Iran’s Nuclear Resilience: What Intel and Markets Tell Us Despite claims from President Trump that Iran’s nuclear capabilities were “obliterated” in recent airstrikes, early intelligence assessments suggest otherwise. According to European and US officials, Iran’s 408kg stockpile of near-weapons-grade uranium remains largely intact, having been dispersed to other locations before the strikes. “It did not achieve anything... Trump exaggerated.” — Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Strategic Interpretation: US and Israeli strikes targeted Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — key nuclear infrastructure. While significant damage occurred, no total structural collapse was confirmed. This reinforces that Tehran maintains breakout capacity, and could resume enrichment rapidly if it chose to. “The nuclear programme suffered enormous damage... but not complete destruction.” — Rafael Grossi, IAEA Market Impact and Geopolitical Outlook: The revelation that Iran’s uranium reserves survived the assault reduces confidence in the effectiveness of US deterrence. Oil markets remain unfazed. Traders priced in the symbolic nature of Iran’s missile response and read the US-Israel actions as limited in strategic disruption. Brent crude fell sharply by 6.1% to $67/bbl post-ceasefire — evidence markets anticipate no extended supply shock. What to Expect: Volatility premium on oil is falling. No major disruption to Strait of Hormuz = no major repricing. Increased likelihood of backchannel diplomacy, especially as Tehran seeks to assert survival and avoid regime destabilization. However, shadow escalation (e.g., cyber, proxy strikes) remains plausible. Practical Asset Implications: Oil traders are in sell-the-spike mode: Risk-on reactions are now short-lived. Defensive commodity plays (e.g., gold) saw a pullback as perceived geopolitical risk faded. Military-industrial equities may experience cooling momentum unless new threats emerge. Risk of sanctions rollbacks or renegotiations could reprice energy and emerging market assets tied to Iran’s trade (e.g., India, China). 6. Export Shock: Tariffs Bite into US Trade Performance US goods exports plummeted by 5.2% in May, marking the sharpest drop since 2020, as President Trump’s aggressive “Liberation Day” tariff strategy triggered a major disruption in global demand for American goods. Total exports fell to $179.2bn, down $9.7bn from the prior month. Breakdown: Industrial supplies (including oil and metals): –13.6% Vehicles: +3.5% (recovering from a –20% collapse in April) Trade deficit widened to $96.6bn, beating Wall Street expectations. “This is the tariff shock starting to filter into real data.” — ING’s James Knightley Economic Implications: Tariff retaliation and inventory overhang are key drivers of the export decline. Partners reduced US imports anticipating further tariffs or supply chain reshuffles. The loss of export revenue compounds fiscal stress, especially with simultaneous tax cuts and increased military spending. Sectoral Risks: Energy exporters (e.g., Texas oil firms) are hit hard — crude exports falling. Industrial metals and machinery producers face slower foreign orders. Shipping and logistics (e.g., FedEx) flagged the US–China lane as the weakest and most unpredictable trade route. Market Outlook: Dollar weakness persists, with the Dollar Index near a 3-year low, reflecting investor fear over twin deficits (fiscal + trade). Equities may remain resilient, especially domestically focused or tariff-insulated names. However, multinationals with global exposure could underperform due to shrinking foreign sales. What to Expect: Volatility in trade data until clarity returns on tariff regimes. Renewed calls for bilateral trade talks or exemptions from key US partners (e.g., EU, Mexico). Watch for nearshoring trends to accelerate as companies avoid tariff risk. 7. EM Rally: Emerging Markets Outshine Developed Peers Amid US Fiscal Anxiety In a stunning reversal of past trends, emerging market (EM) assets are rallying across asset classes in 2025 — defying both the global macro gloom and the shadow of US tariff policy. By the Numbers: JPMorgan EM Local Bond Index: +10% YTD MSCI EM Equity Index: +10% MSCI World (Developed Markets): +4.8% EM bonds in global AUM: Rising from a low 5% share This rotation reflects a clear diversification trend away from dollar assets, fueled by erratic US policymaking, record federal debt, and a weakening dollar. The Treasury-specific risk premium is rising — and EMs are absorbing the flow. Drivers of the Rally: Dollar weakness: Eases FX pressure, gives central banks room to cut. Inflation-adjusted yields in EMs at 20-year highs, making debt highly attractive. Declining fiscal risks in EMs contrast with ballooning G7 debt burdens. China and South Korea lead equity optimism with innovation themes and policy clarity. “Even small inflows are having disproportionately large effects.” — Goldman Sachs’ Kevin Daly Risks and Rotation: Geopolitical conflict in the Middle East did not dent EM flows — a clear sign of confidence in regional resilience. Oil prices falling reduced tail risks for EM energy importers like India and South Korea. Still, EM equity outflows in Q1 were sizable (–$22bn), only partially reversed in May–June (+$11bn net). Practical Strategy for Investors: Local currency bonds in Brazil, South Africa, Indonesia — rich yields, FX tailwinds. Tech-heavy equity plays in China and Taiwan — exposure to global AI boom. EM corporates still lag — cautious positioning advised due to higher default risk. What to Watch: Further EM policy easing, especially in Asia, will support equities. US yield volatility may occasionally disrupt flows, but the narrative has shifted. Multi-asset portfolios should consider overweighting EM exposure tactically in H2 2025. 8. Shell, Sovereign Risk, and the Oil Sector Outlook: BP Takeover Denied, Sector Under Pressure Shell’s explicit denial of takeover talks with BP, despite media speculation, offers clarity but also raises key strategic questions for the European energy sector. The sector continues to grapple with sluggish price action, mounting decarbonization pressures, and a renewed focus on capital discipline. Key Takeaways: Shell stated it had “no intention” of acquiring BP and had not been in talks, invoking a six-month standstill period under UK takeover law. BP shares rose 1.3%, Shell +0.5%, largely a relief rally and not based on synergies. This quells short-term merger speculation, but it underscores the pressure on oil majors from activist investors (e.g., Elliott’s 5% stake in BP) demanding deeper cuts, higher returns, and optionality in energy transition strategy. “Shell has preferred buybacks to acquisitions.” — Wael Sawan, CEO Sector-Wide Implications: BP’s aggressive renewables push has backfired, denting valuation and making it a takeover target. Oil majors are capital-rich but investment-conservative, amid uncertain demand outlook and energy policy volatility. High integration costs and risk of job losses are politically toxic, limiting mega-deal feasibility. Practical Market Interpretation: With Brent crude hovering around $68–$70, oil equities remain valuation-sensitive and vulnerable to dividend cuts or FX shocks. Investors should favor capital-efficient names with strong free cash flow and disciplined buyback programs. Avoid speculative merger plays; instead, track cost reduction execution and decarbonization pace. What to Watch: Further activist pressure on BP and Total to streamline operations. Potential US M&A activity in smaller shale players instead of global giants. Any signs of OPEC+ discord or US SPR use amid volatile demand expectations. 9. New World Development: Hong Kong’s Property Giant Faces Systemic Risk New World Development (NWD), one of Hong Kong’s largest property conglomerates, is undergoing a delicate refinancing operation amid ballooning debt, weak property sales, and a declining tourism-reliant retail economy. The implications ripple across the Asian credit markets, Chinese property sector, and Hong Kong's financial stability. Key Financials: Net debt: HK$124.6bn Refinancing talks: HK$87.5bn in bank loans Interest costs > operating profits in 2H FY2024 Annual loss: HK$20bn, the first in two decades Shares down 22% YTD, market cap ~HK$14bn The developer’s leverage and stalled mainland China expansion expose it to credit market deterioration, at a time when trust in property-linked balance sheets is thin. “It won’t be a question of how much you’re willing to pay — the cover won’t be available.” — Everest CEO Jim Williamson, referring to US casualty insurance but resonant here too. Systemic Concerns: Barclays estimates NWD accounts for 7% of all HK commercial property loans — nearly double Evergrande’s systemic exposure in mainland China. Property defaults or asset fire-sales could cause bank provisioning hikes, spread to retail REITs, and exacerbate deflationary pressures. Mitigating Actions: NWD pledged flagship assets (e.g., Victoria Dockside) as collateral. Actively selling projects at discounts. Chow Tai Fook Enterprises selectively buying assets, indirectly supporting liquidity. However, refusal to engage with bondholders, deferred perpetual interest payments, and a leadership reshuffle have eroded market confidence. Strategic Implications for Investors: Avoid unsecured Chinese real estate debt—bondholder transparency is poor. Favor secured exposure or government-backed REITs tied to stable rental income. Look for HKMA guidance: policymakers are signaling banks to avoid panic provisioning, implying the government will step in to prevent contagion. Broader Macro Read: Reflects fragility of China’s "recovery-lite" property model, where urban development exceeds real demand. HK real estate’s softening is also a proxy for declining mainland tourism, rising capital costs, and shifting investor preferences. 10. Meta’s Copyright Win: Legal Green Light for AI Model Training Meta's recent legal victory over authors suing for unauthorized use of books in AI training marks a critical turning point in the legal framework surrounding AI development. The U.S. District Court ruled that the tech giant’s use of millions of texts to train its LLaMA models constituted “fair use”, delivering a massive tailwind to AI innovation — and to equity investors betting on the sector. Case Summary: Plaintiffs included notable authors like Ta-Nehisi Coates. Meta trained its AI on LibGen-sourced books without permission. Judge Chhabria: Ruled for Meta due to “poor argumentation” by plaintiffs — not because the court inherently favored AI use. “This ruling does not stand for the proposition that Meta’s use of copyrighted materials to train its language models is lawful. It stands only for the proposition that these plaintiffs made the wrong arguments.” — Judge Vince Chhabria Precedent and Practical Impact: Reinforces the fair use doctrine for transformative technologies. Encourages aggressive data utilization strategies by other firms. Raises the bar for future copyright suits, requiring stronger arguments like market harm (e.g., reduced author royalties). Implications for Tech and Equity Markets: AI development costs may fall sharply as legal uncertainty fades. Generative AI leaders (Meta, Anthropic, OpenAI) now face fewer near-term litigation barriers. Paves the way for AI ETF inflows, bolsters AI-leveraged tech indices (e.g., SOXX, QQQ). Equity long positions in semis (NVDA, AMD), cloud (MSFT, GOOGL), and enterprise AI (CRM, ORCL) become even more strategic. Regulatory Outlook: A longer-term battle is likely over “market dilution” claims. Courts may soon have to decide whether AI-generated outputs undermine economic incentives for human creators. Policy frameworks from the EU or US Congress are likely within 12–18 months. Strategic Takeaways for Investors: Increase exposure to AI infrastructure (e.g., Nvidia, Micron, Arista). Maintain vigilance on evolving IP litigation trends — regulatory tone may shift depending on 2025 political outcomes. Avoid over-concentration in companies still facing unresolved copyright or data privacy battles (e.g., Open-source LLMs with gray training data). 11. ETF Innovation: ‘Autocallables’ Go Retail – A Structural Shift in Yield Exposure The launch of the first US-listed ETF tracking autocallable structured products by Calamos Investments, with JPMorgan support, signals a transformative shift in how retail investors access complex income strategies. Once limited to ultra-high-net-worth clients, these derivatives — with yields near 14.7% — are now democratized through a simple ticker trade. What Are Autocallables? Autocallables offer periodic coupons unless a linked index (e.g., S&P 500) falls below a pre-set barrier. If the barrier is breached consistently, investors risk losing principal. They are akin to structured credit instruments but are tied to equity indices, not borrowers. Triggered by market declines. Maturity: typically 3 years, quarterly checks. Final protection barrier: ~60% of starting level — breach = principal loss. ETF will hold 52+ autocallables diversified by issuance date. Investment Mechanics: Calamos Autocallable Income ETF (CAIY) charges 0.74% annual fee — above the average for US derivative-income ETFs (0.51%). It’s part of a wider trend: structured outcome ETFs have exploded from $3.5bn in 2019 → $179bn today (Morningstar). Mimics yield exposure of high-yield bonds, but linked to equity volatility. Analyst Commentary: Ben Johnson, Morningstar: “ETFs are taking share from all financial products — not just mutual funds, but also from bespoke structured notes.” Elisabeth Kashner, FactSet: warned of misunderstanding risks: “Advisers will struggle to explain these. If markets fall, protection and yield disappear.” Practical Implications: Retail investors gain access to high-yielding structured credit proxies. If adopted at scale, this could divert flows from traditional high-yield bonds and annuities. Volatility derivatives embedded in autocallables will impact options markets and hedging strategies. Risk Outlook: In a sharp downturn, coupon stops and capital protection collapses — potentially leading to double-digit losses. These ETFs may suffer sudden illiquidity if linked indices breach multiple trigger levels at once. Systemic Considerations: Broad adoption of these ETFs could amplify equity downside during sharp corrections — as dealers hedge risk via S&P futures. Scenario: A systemic correction triggers autocallable barrier breaches, prompting delta-hedging cascades → market destabilization. Investor Strategy: Use as non-core, tactical exposure for income in low-volatility environments. Monitor S&P drawdowns and ETF option volumes for stress signals. Avoid relying on these instruments for downside protection in portfolios targeting retirement stability. 12. Wall Street Outlook: Dollar Slide, Powell Speculation, and Inflation Signaling Markets steadied this week as geopolitical tensions cooled with the Iran-Israel ceasefire, but underlying stress in key asset classes persists — particularly in foreign exchange and rate-sensitive sectors. Traders are recalibrating for what could be a pivot in US monetary policy, as political noise intensifies over Fed leadership and dollar weakness accelerates. Dollar Pressure Deepens: The US Dollar Index slid to a three-year low, falling 0.5% after the Wall Street Journal reported that President Trump may replace Fed Chair Jay Powell earlier than expected. The euro surged to $1.1710, its strongest level since September 2021. “We suspect that some of this narrative is seeping into perceptions,” said Macquarie’s Thierry Wizman, pointing to speculation over Fed independence. This decline is especially concerning given the rebound in Treasury yields, which would traditionally support the greenback. Instead, we are witnessing a breakdown in classic correlations, as political interference becomes a dominant narrative. Powell’s Job and Policy Path: The idea of a “shadow chair” to pressure the Fed into rate cuts has unnerved institutional allocators. The White House denied imminent changes but confirmed the president’s “right to change his mind.” This raises risk premiums around Fed credibility, especially with inflation still a threat and growth signals weakening. Any leadership uncertainty at the Fed historically results in higher long-end yields due to perceived policy drift or political bias. Safe Havens and Gold Dynamics: Gold fell 0.2% to $3,324/oz, losing some haven allure post-ceasefire. Continued outflows are expected unless inflation data surprises to the upside or Fed intervention appears politically constrained. Equity Markets: S&P 500 closed just under its all-time high, up 0.6%. Risk-on sentiment is heavily liquidity-driven, with AI optimism (led by Nvidia) adding a secondary tailwind. Oil and Inflation: Brent crude rebounded to $68.49/bbl, up 1.2%, despite subdued supply risk. Inflation-linked assets remain moderately priced, but any disruption to the Strait of Hormuz or further US-China escalation could reignite tail-risk pricing. Practical Implications: Dollar weakness can spur a rotation into EM equities, gold, and real assets. Investors should brace for increased FX volatility and repricing of global rate differentials. Portfolios with high USD exposure may benefit from increased geographical diversification. TIPS and short-duration Treasuries become more attractive as stagflation hedges in case Powell is replaced with a dovish successor.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Buranku
6.27 Gold price will break down6.27 Gold price will break down U.S. Treasury Secretary Bensont asked Congress to remove the "899 retaliatory tax clause". The European Union is considering reducing tariffs on U.S. imports in order to quickly reach a trade agreement with the United States. Yesterday, gold failed to break through 3350. Affected by international news, it has fallen all the way and has broken through 3300 today. Currently, the price of gold is close to the daily trend line, and PCE data will be released today. It means that there is still room below. If there is more negative news today, the price of gold may fall below the daily trend line. Today's strategy can be to go long above 3285. If the news released today is not negative, then you can add positions after the correction. Otherwise, close the position and wait. The target is set at 3300/3315. The stop loss is placed at 3275. If it fluctuates between 3285-3300 today, you can keep the order until next Monday to observe the closing. Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can help you.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EmilyShared256111
Gold Caught Between Bulls and Bears as Uncertainty BuildsGold prices continued to edge lower today, hovering around $3,320 per ounce, showing little change from the previous session. Interestingly, even as the US dollar dropped to its lowest level since February 2022 and Treasury yields fell, gold’s rebound remains limited — weighed down by a string of upbeat US economic data. The US Dollar Index (DXY) slipped nearly 0.6% to 97.13, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.259% — both typically bullish signals for gold. However, optimism around the US economy is tempering safe-haven demand. Adding to the uncertainty, reports suggest former President Donald Trump may announce a replacement for Fed Chair Jerome Powell as early as September or October, sparking speculation over future monetary policy direction. Meanwhile, Fed officials such as Susan Collins and Thomas Barkin have reiterated that there is no strong case for rate cuts in July, warning that inflation could reaccelerate — especially under the pressure of renewed tariffs. 🔎 Technical view: Gold remains supported near the 50-day moving average at $3,322, but RSI indicates growing bearish momentum. A breakout above $3,400 could reignite upside movement. However, if the price breaks below $3,300, the next key supports lie at $3,245, and deeper at $3,200.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Edward_TradingFX
1
Bearish reversal off pullback resistance?The Silver (XAG/USD) is re4acting off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could drop to the 1st suport. Pivot: 36.76 1st Support: 35.73 1st Resistance: 37.29 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:XAGUSDShort
by ICmarkets
XAU/USD GOLD 4H + 1H PREMIUM TECHNICAL OUTLOOK – JUNE 27, 20254-HOUR TIMEFRAME – HIGHER TIMEFRAME BIAS Gold continues to trade near its all-time highs, consolidating just below a recent swing high of $3,315. Despite minor pullbacks, the macro trend remains bullish, with bullish structure still intact. Recent price action shows shallow retracements and strong rejections of key fib levels, a typical sign of underlying smart money accumulation. Price Action & Market Structure Gold recently printed a Break of Structure (BOS) at $3,290, followed by a retest of the broken level. We observed a Change of Character (CHoCH) near $3,300, quickly invalidated by bullish strength – further confirming accumulation behavior. Market remains in bullish alignment unless $3,250 is broken decisively. Key Support & Resistance Zones Resistance $3,315–$3,320 Demand $3,275–$3,282 Support $3,250 Targets $3,340 / $3,355 Smart Money Concepts (SMC) Liquidity Grab beneath $3,275 likely triggered retail stop hunts 4H Bullish Order Block between $3,275–$3,282 remains unmitigated Imbalance Zone: $3,283–$3,289 – price may wick into this before launch Sell-side liquidity taken below $3,275 → bullish reaction Buy-side liquidity sits above $3,315 → likely short-term magnet ZOOMING INTO 1-HOUR CHART – INTRADAY SETUPS The 1-hour chart aligns with the bullish higher-timeframe bias, offering two potential premium-level setups: Setup #1: Bullish Rejection from 4H OB Entry Zone: $3,275–$3,282 This setup targets a liquidity sweep beneath $3,275 followed by bullish mitigation of a clean order block and imbalance zone. Confluence across fibs, OB, and structure support increases probability. Setup #2: Breakout Retest Play Trigger: Clean breakout and retest of $3,315 Entry: On successful retest (bullish confirmation candle) Ideal if momentum pushes through local resistance, clearing buy-side liquidity. Reclaim of structure suggests smart money continuation. Bearish Contingency (Low Probability for Now) If price breaks below $3,250 and confirms below structure: Look to short on retests into $3,275 Target next demand around $3,235 Until that happens, bullish bias remains dominant. Gold remains one of the most structured and responsive instruments to smart money technicals right now. A well-planned entry around demand, imbalance, or breakout levels provides excellent RRR potential if structure holds.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Tami512
XAUUSD PLAN – June 26Price is inside a Wyckoff range – we're watching for buy setups 🔼 Resistance: 3356 – 3369 Support: 3325 – 3305 🔴 SELL GOLD 3380 – 3383 | SL: 3388 (small lot) TP1: 3375 TP2: 3365 TP3: 3355 TP4: 3345 Open TP: 3330 🟢 BUY GOLD 3315 – 3312 | SL: 3307 (small lot) TP1: 3320 TP2: 3330 TP3: 3340 TP4: 3350 Open TP: 3370 Scalping strategies will trigger if price reacts at the above zones.‼️ Note: Use full Take Profit and Stop Loss for safety and better results.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EliseLunaTraders
Tightening Triangle Signals Major Move Ahead for Crude OilChart Overview (30-Minute Timeframe) Instrument: Crude Oil Futures (OIL) Current Price: ~$64.77 Recent Trend: Strong bearish drop followed by consolidation --- 🔺 Key Patterns & Structures Identified 1. Descending Triangle (Current Price Action) The current price is tightly compressed within a descending triangle, with a horizontal support near $64.70 and a descending trendline from the recent highs. Bearish bias is typical in this pattern, but a breakout to the upside is possible, especially with bullish volume or news catalysts. 2. Previous Breakdown A sharp decline occurred from a resistance zone around $78.00 (highlighted in red). This breakdown was decisive and fast, breaking through former support levels (green zone around $68–$69). 3. Support Zone Holding The support at ~$64.70 has been tested multiple times but is still holding, suggesting buyer interest at this level. 4. Volume/Volatility Contraction Price is consolidating in a tight range between ~$64.5 and ~$65.3. This compression of volatility often precedes a significant breakout or breakdown. --- 🔁 Possible Scenarios ✅ Bullish Breakout Trigger: Break above the descending trendline (~$65.3–$65.5). Target: Revisit prior support zone at $68.00, possibly higher. Confirmation: Strong bullish candle with increased volume. ❌ Bearish Breakdown Trigger: Break below horizontal support at ~$64.70. Target: Possible drop toward $62.00–$61.00, depending on momentum. Confirmation: Strong bearish candle closing below support with high volume.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Aria-Margot-Fx
Gold's Head and Shoulders Suggests Bearish SignalChart pattern-Head and Shoulder Gold pared most of its gains as US and China trade tensions eased. It hits an intraday low of $3291 and is currently trading around $3294.81. Gold prices are holding below the short-term moving averages 34 EMA and 55 EMA and above the long-term moving averages (200 EMA) on the 4-hour chart. Immediate support is at $3340, and a break below this level will drag the yellow metal to $3330/$3300. The near-term resistance is at $3385 with potential price targets at $3400/43420$3450/$3475/$3500/$3550. It is good to sell below $3295 with a stop-loss at $3340 for a target price of $3000.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by FxWirePro