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The Daily Edge - 20th Feb 2025Indecision at Previous ATH as Shorts Remain in Focus Market Overview Wednesday’s daily candle printed a doji, testing the previous ATH and 2940 consolidation high. Entered shorts at these levels, took an initial loss, but considering re-engagement today. While this goes against the Monthly and Weekly trends, the Daily timeframe shows indecision, reinforcing a short bias for now. Key Observations Daily doji signals indecision – price failed to break convincingly above 2940. 4H remains bullish – trend strength contradicts daily indecision. POI for longs at 2920 – bullish close above Friday’s bearish PA suggests support below Wednesday’s low. Shorts remain in focus – targeting 2865 but will re-evaluate if invalidated. Our Next Steps Manage short positions, watching for reaction toward 2865. Remain flexible – exit shorts if structure shifts, reassess for re-entry. Monitor 4H structure & POI at 2920 – if price finds support, consider a shift to longs. Reflection Prompt How do you balance short-term trade setups with higher timeframe trends while managing risk effectively? #XAUUSD #Gold #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #PriceAction #PipsnPaper
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by PipsnPaper
Copper Elliott Wave Forecast: Bullish Breakout Targeting $5+Copper’s Elliott wave price structure suggests a completed contracting symmetrical triangle (ABCDE) correction, followed by the start of a five-wave impulse. The chart shows: Primary Degree Count: The rally from the $4.00 low (Wave E) marks the start of a five-wave impulse pattern. Intermediate Degree Count: Wave (i) of ((iii)) topped at $4.8346. Wave (ii) of ((iii)) is in progress, likely finding support above $4.42-4.54. Wave (iii) of ((iii)) is expected to extend toward the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level (~$5.00). Wave (v) of ((iii)) could reach the 2.618 Fibonacci extension (~$5.59). The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows overbought conditions, suggesting a short-term correction before the next rally. COPPER'S ALTERNATE COUNT There is an alternate count we are keeping an eye on (labeled in red). The alternate count would suggest that the February 14 high was wave ((iii)) and a sideways grind is unfolding in wave ((iv)). This sideways grind would need to hold above $4.46 to remain valid. The alternate count would imply a more mature advance with less upside potential. BOTTOM LINE Copper’s Elliott Wave count suggests an impulsive rally targeting $5.00+. A corrective pullback toward $4.42-4.54 offers potential buying opportunities. Bulls remain in control unless price drops below $4.18.
FX:COPPERLong
by JWagnerFXTrader
2
Tracking Crisis with Stocks/Gold RatioGold Surges with Three Major Crises Over the past 25 years, we have witnessed three significant financial crises: the Dot-Com Bubble, the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the recent 9% inflation crisis. In each of these events, a distinct pattern emerged—gold surged before the crisis reached its full intensity. Historically, gold's price has experienced notable gains before economic downturns: • Dot-Com Bubble: +34% surge • 2008 Financial Crisis: +89% surge • Inflation Crisis (2022): +24% surge Currently, gold has surged 83% from its trough in November 2022. Given this historical correlation, could we be on the verge of another financial crisis? Why Are Central Banks Stockpiling Gold? This current gold rally bears similarities to past surges but also has a crucial distinction. While demand for gold remains strong, this time around, central banks are leading the charge in purchasing gold at an unprecedented rate since 2022. Gold serves a dual function: 1. Inflation Hedge – A safeguard against inflation. 2. Currency Hedge – Protection against currency devaluation. Central banks' aggressive gold acquisitions suggest expectations of prolonged inflation and currency instability. As fiat currencies weaken, inflationary pressures mount, reinforcing gold’s attractiveness as a safe haven asset. Fundamental Indicators Paint a Cautionary Picture A deeper dive into key economic indicators suggests a challenging outlook. Here are some red flags: • Treasury Bonds in a Downtrend – Indicating a loss of confidence in long-term debt securities. • Interest Rates Remain High – Despite inflation cooling from 9% to 3%, borrowing costs remain significantly higher than pre-2022 levels. Elevated interest rates place pressure on businesses and, eventually, stock prices. • Inflation Remains Stubborn – The lowest recorded inflation since the peak was 2.4%, but it has now ticked back up to 3%. With ongoing tariff escalations, inflation could reignite. These fundamental factors indicate that financial markets remain vulnerable to shocks, reinforcing the case for cautious positioning. The Technical Outlook: A Bullish Trend Still Holds Despite fundamental concerns, technical analysis suggests that the current AI-driven market rally, which began after the introduction of ChatGPT, remains intact. A strong uptrend line connecting all major troughs continues to act as a support level. Timing the Bear with the Crisis The bond market is already signaling distress. If equity markets break below this well-established uptrend line, my strategy will shift dramatically. Instead of looking for buying opportunities on dips, I will pivot to selling on strengths, anticipating a market downturn. My Trading Strategy: Still Buying on Dips I have provided a daily chart with updated trendlines, marking key support and resistance levels. My trading approach will be guided by these levels to manage risk effectively. Preferred Instruments: Outright futures and call options. Market Outlook: Cautiously bullish. While economic conditions warrant vigilance, technical indicators suggest that the bullish trend remains intact—until proven otherwise. Happy trading! Please see the following disclaimer and information that you may find useful: E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: NQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $5.00 Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures & Options Ticker: MNQ Minimum fluctuation: 0.25 index points = $0.50 Disclaimer: • What presented here is not a recommendation, please consult your licensed broker. • My mission is to create lateral thinking skills for every investor and trader, knowing when to take a calculated risk with market uncertainty and a bolder risk when opportunity arises. Trading competition: www.tradingview.com Trading the Micro: www.cmegroup.com CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups in real-time and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
COMEX:GC1!Long
by konhow
New update for Gold Futures.**Gold Futures: A Comprehensive Update** Hey everyone! It's been a while since my last post, and there's been a lot happening in the gold market. Let's take a closer look at the current state of gold futures and what's driving the market right now. **Price Trends** Gold prices have been trading around **$2,900** per ounce, struggling to break above this level. The price has been relatively stable, but there's a lot of speculation about where it might head next. **Market Drivers** Several factors are influencing gold prices at the moment: **US-Russia Talks** The ongoing discussions between the US and Russia regarding the war in Ukraine are causing some uncertainty. Any significant developments could impact gold prices as investors look for safe-haven assets. **Federal Reserve Policies** Comments from Fed officials about inflation and interest rates are also affecting the market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman mentioned that rising asset prices may have hampered progress on inflation. This kind of news can make investors nervous and drive them towards gold. **US Dollar Strength** The US Dollar has been rebounding, which typically puts downward pressure on gold prices. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, which can dampen demand. **Technical Analysis** The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently around **68**, suggesting a lack of fresh impetus. If sellers enter the market, the price could test the February low of **$2,864**. This level is crucial as a break below it could lead to further downside. **Upcoming Events** There are a few key events to keep an eye on: **Fed Minutes** The release of the Fed’s January meeting minutes could provide insights into future policy directions. This will be closely watched by market participants. **US Economic Data** Reports like Non-Farm Payroll and Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be key indicators to watch. These reports can give us a better understanding of the US economy and influence Fed policy decisions. **Claims About Trump and Musk Auditing Fort Knox Gold Reserves** Donald Trump and Elon Musk have indeed raised concerns about the gold reserves at Fort Knox. Trump has publicly stated that he wants to ensure the gold is still there, and Musk has echoed these sentiments on social media. However, it's important to note that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has confirmed that the gold reserves are audited annually and that all the gold is present and accounted for. **Gold Bar with Silver Allegations** There have been rumors circulating online about a gold bar with silver found at Fort Knox, but there is no verified evidence to support this claim. The U.S. Mint and other official sources have not reported any such discovery. It's likely that this is just another conspiracy theory without any factual basis. **Conclusion** While it's always good to question and seek transparency, the claims about Trump and Musk auditing Fort Knox and finding a gold bar with silver seem to lack credible evidence. The official stance is that the gold reserves are well-documented and secure.
COMEX:GC1!
by OakleyJM
Gold Breaks Out of Triangle Pattern: Targeting $2,970–$2,980This chart shows a breakout from a triangle pattern on the 1-hour timeframe for gold (XAU/USD). The breakout has occurred above the resistance of the triangle, indicating potential bullish momentum. - Resistance Zone: The previous resistance level was around 2,936–2,940, which was tested multiple times before the breakout. Now, this level may act as new support. - Target: The projected target for this breakout is near 2,970–2,980, aligning with the height of the triangle pattern. A successful retest of the breakout level could confirm further bullish movement toward the target zone.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Gold evening analysisThe current market of gold is in the big pendulum market at the end of the fishtail, and the market tail fluctuations are often relatively large. The recent bullish strength is mainly due to the impact of Trump's successive tariff increases. The US's major policy strategy is to reduce debts both internally and externally, so the money market is bound to gradually enter a tightening phase for a long time in the future, and inflation will not rise. This is a gradual process and cannot be transferred by human will. For the short-selling layout of gold in a larger cycle, the second stage of the short-selling phase (the first stage is 2940 to 2880) is best when the daily line appears to have a peak pattern. In the near future, long positions only need to be short-term long positions. Because many people are engaged in leveraged markets, which will invisibly magnify risks, a rise of tens of dollars will intuitively feel very high. Doing fundamental analysis is not about paying attention to the market of tens of dollars, thinking that the current gold fluctuation is 50-60 US dollars a day. Such fluctuations + high leverage will especially affect the trading accounts of retail friends. Gold is indeed bullish. At a glance, there is no highest, only higher. However, high-level risks often accumulate at such times. Short-term heavy positions are a gamble. The current fluctuations are only suitable for 1/3 of the previous positions or even lower. Pay attention to the support of 2910 area below, and you can short. At the same time, pay attention to the stabilization of 2945 area above. If the daily line closes firmly tonight, we will focus on the probability of a large correction of 2977 78.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by mykvmykv
Gold NEW ATH to $2,954?! (1H UPDATE)Gold on the 4H TF is within its final Wave 5 bullish move, there’s no arguing with that. The only thing to debate is how high can Wave 5 push up before reversing? While it’s possible that Wave 5 has now peaked at $2,942 & ready for a major correction, on the 1H TF I see a small possibly of it creating a new ATH toward $2,954. HIGH RISK TRADE. Confluences👇🏻 ⭕️Distribution Schematic Taking Place Between Wave 3 High, Wave 4 Low & Wave 5 High. ⭕️Wave E Rejected From Psychological Number Of $2,940 (LQ Trap). ⭕️No Strong Sell Off Yet To Indicate A Reversal Has Started.
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by BA_Investments
Oil on the rise!?Recent COT data shows a decrease in short interest from commercial money, potentially signaling a shift in sentiment. Seasonal trends also support a bullish outlook for oil, with historical data indicating a strong price rise between February 7 and March 5. Over the past 34 years, oil has gained 69.7% of the time, with an average increase of 4.79%. From a technical standpoint, the price has broken higher from a corrective channel, suggesting further upside potential. A move toward the early 2025 highs of 80.44 could be on the cards. A breakout above this level would confirm a large bottom formation, paving the way for further gains in the months ahead. Trade setup: Buy on dips to 72.26, with a stop loss at 69.90, targeting a move to 80.44.
TRADENATION:WTILong
by Signal_Centre
1
price line up new ATH, strong bulls⭐️ Smart investment, Strong finance ⭐️ GOLDEN INFORMATION: Gold price (XAU/USD) gains traction in the Asian session on Thursday, staying near its record high from the previous day. Concerns over a potential global trade war rise as US President Donald Trump threatens new tariffs, boosting demand for the safe-haven metal. Meanwhile, a drop in US Treasury yields further supports gold's appeal. ⭐️ Personal comments NOVA: Bulls dominate, uptrend continues to create new ATH, a series of new tariff policies will be announced in the near future ⭐️ SET UP GOLD PRICE: 🔥 SELL GOLD zone: $2956 - $2958 SL $2963 TP1: $2950 TP2: $2940 TP3: $2930 🔥BUY GOLD zone: $2926 - $2928 SL $2923 scalping TP1: $2932 TP2: $2936 TP3: $2942 🔥 BUY GOLD zone: $2893 - $2895 SL $2887 TP1: $2902 TP2: $2910 TP3: $2920 ⭐️ Technical analysis: Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order. ⭐️ NOTE: Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well - take the number of lots that match your capital - Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account - Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Nova-Scalper
4
Rice Production: Record-High U.S. Stocks and India’s Export SurgU.S. Rice Market Developments U.S. rice production is forecast at 222.1 million cwt, reflecting stable output despite shifting market conditions. However, exports have been revised downward by 4.0 million cwt to 96.0 million cwt, primarily due to a decline in long-grain rice shipments. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are projected to rise by 3.5 million cwt to 47.0 million cwt, marking a 10-year high. The increase in supply has also led to a reduction in the average farm price, now estimated at $15.40 per cwt, down $0.20 from previous projections. India’s Expanding Role in Global Trade India continues to dominate the global rice export market, with shipments revised upward to 22.0 million metric tons. The country’s aggressive export strategy, despite recent regulatory interventions, has kept global supply levels high. Increased demand from key importers, including China, has further supported India’s leading position in the market. Global Supply and Consumption Trends Global rice ending stocks have been reduced by 0.5 million metric tons, now forecast at 181.6 million metric tons, primarily due to lower reserves in India and Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, global consumption is set to reach 530.5 million metric tons, with rising demand from Asian economies. Market Outlook The combination of record-high U.S. stocks and India’s robust export performance presents a complex picture for rice markets. While U.S. prices remain under pressure due to surplus stock, India’s export dominance is expected to sustain strong global trade flows.
CBOT:ZR1!
by juliakhandoshko
Gold XAUUSD Intra-day Move 19.02.2025📊 Market Structure & Price Action Analysis: Uptrend Confirmation: Gold has been respecting the ascending channel since $2,880, indicating strong bullish momentum. Key Support Zone: $2,923 - $2,925, which aligns with the trendline support and has held twice. Rejection from Resistance: $2,939, suggesting a temporary pullback before another bullish leg. Potential Buy Zone: If price revisits $2,923 - $2,925 and holds, it presents a good long opportunity. 📈 Intraday Scalping Trade Signal (BUY Setup) ✅ Buy Entry: $2,923 - $2,925 (Wait for confirmation with bullish price action) 🎯 Take Profit (TP1): $2,939 (Short-term target) 🎯 Take Profit (TP2): $2,946 - $2,950 (Channel resistance) 🛑 Stop Loss: Below $2,915 (Trendline breakdown invalidates setup) ⚖ Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 or higher 🕵 Confirmation Checklist Before Entry: ✅ Bullish Candlestick Formation (e.g., bullish engulfing, pin bar at support) ✅ Trendline & Support Hold at $2,923 - $2,925 ✅ Volume Increase on Buy Pressure ✅ DXY (Dollar Index) Weakness for Additional Confirmation ⚠ Risk Management: Exit immediately if price closes below $2,915, as it would indicate a trendline breakdown. Move SL to Breakeven once TP1 is hit. Avoid Chasing Entry if price already starts moving higher without touching the buy zone. 📌 Trading Tip: Monitor gold's reaction at $2,923 - $2,925; a strong bounce confirms bullish strength. 🚀 Like, follow and comment your concern.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Quinn901
GOLD - After correct to support line, price can bounce to $2930Hi guys, this is my overview for XAUUSD, feel free to check it and write your feedback in comments👊 Recently price started to grow inside upward wedge, and soon reached $2855 level and broke it, after which made retest. Then Gold some time traded near this level, corrected to support area and then continued to move up. Later it reached resistance line of wedge, before making a gap, after which price turned around and dropped. Price almost fell to support line of wedge and then bounced up to resistance area, after which quickly fell back. Next, price in a short time rose to resistance line of wedge, breaking $2930 level, but then started to decline. In my opinion, after a breakout of $2930 level, Gold can bounce up to $2970 from support line and exit from wa edge. If this post is useful to you, you can support me with like/boost and advice in comments❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by WalterMoon
3
Gold (XAUUSD) Recovery in Sight? 7 Hour Deadline📈 Gold (XAUUSD) Recovery in Sight? 📈 After a sharp drop, watching for a potential retracement into the 2,942 - 2,946 zone before the next move. 🔸 Current Price: 2,927 🔸 Target Zone: 2,942 - 2,946 🔸 Deadline: Before 14:00 UTC Will price reach this level before the deadline? Let’s see how it plays out! 🔥 Drop your thoughts below! 👇🏼 #Gold #XAUUSD #Trading #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #MarketMoves #PriceAction #DayTrading
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by GlobalHorns