NQ: 175th trading session - recapRather good session today, good pre-market prep. However, I was a bit too tired which is obviously not good. But I walso don't want to put too much caffeine into my body that can't be healthy.
Also, take every clue you get as indication on what might happen. I know that you want "the range to break/ the pullback to continue", but if it simply doesn't do those things then take that as negative consolidation.
Futures market
Can the 3370 support level turn the tide?The Asian session low of 3413 rebounded to 3500 under pressure, and then fell back to 3370 in the evening, with a single-day fluctuation of more than 100 points. Since the 14-day bull market started at 2959 on April 7, the gold price has soared 500 points, and the short-term overbought has triggered technical correction pressure. The current market presents a strong pattern of "buying on every correction", and even if there is a long upper shadow, the bullish sentiment still dominates the market.
From a technical perspective, the support near 3370 is crucial. If it holds, the bullish trend will continue; otherwise, a break may trigger a deeper adjustment. Although there is short-term profit-taking pressure, the overall market is bullish. It is recommended to pay attention to the key support level of 3370 and be alert to low-long opportunities in repeated fluctuations.
Gold intraday high V reversal looks to continueToday's market analysis and interpretation:
First, the gold daily level: After closing with a full increase of 100 US dollars yesterday, it continued to rise by nearly 90 US dollars today. The daily line may not feel the acceleration, but from the weekly line, the trend of continuous large positives for nearly three weeks and an increase of more than 500 US dollars, it seems to be accelerating to the top; although the overall bullish trend this year will not be affected at all, in the short term, some bulls may flee due to the accelerated pull, that is, profit-taking, which is often more likely to happen; In addition, yesterday's research report focused on interpreting the trend of 2956 to 3500. It is very likely to cycle the previous wave of 2832 to 3167. The maximum retracement of 618 division position just confirms the previous top and bottom support of 3167. In addition, from the wave shape, if 2832-3167 belongs to the first wave, 3167 to 2956 belongs to the second wave, and the third wave is calculated by 1.618 times the first wave, it is exactly 3498, which is today's intraday high of 3500. Then the fourth correction wave may be brewing in the follow-up, which is generally the third wave 382 or 50 division, and it generally will not fall below the first wave high of 3167. Therefore, in the next few days, if 3500 cannot be broken through again, the correction will focus on the 382 division support 3292 and the 50 division support 3228. The limit is that it is unlikely to fall too far from 3167, and then Waiting for the opportunity of band bullishness, each squat adjustment is to further continue the bullish trend;
Second, gold 4-hour level: the current MA5-day moving average support is barely holding up temporarily, and the top is a bearish pattern of "evening star" with a large Yin wrapped in Yang. It needs to be combined with the subsequent K-line pattern. If there are continuous Yins and large Yins continue to appear, then this cycle will begin to be under pressure, and the MA10-day support of 3428 and the middle track of 3378-72 will be gradually tested below;
Third, gold hourly level: Asian session continues to rise sharply, but the European session suppresses the 3500 line and falls back, temporarily supporting the middle track. The inability of the European session to attack increases the risk of further downward adjustment tonight; once the middle track is effectively lost, it will continue to fall. Finally, tonight, we can gradually see the 66-day moving average, which is also the lower track of the white channel in the figure, about 3380; The short-term resistance is the 10-day moving average and the white channel counter-pressure point, concentrated at 3470-3480, which happens to be the 618 division point of the European session's decline and rebound; therefore, pay attention to 3470-3480 tonight. If it cannot withstand the pressure, it will continue to decline and gradually look at 3428 and 3411. The strong support is in the range of 3380-3370 tonight. If it stabilizes here, it will rebound to confirm the middle track, and the ups and downs will be huge.
Crude oil trend will remain volatile and upwardOn Tuesday, crude oil prices rose slightly, mainly driven by investors' short - covering. WTI crude oil rose to a maximum of $64.05 per barrel.👉👉👉
Currently, the oil price is in a fragile rebound stage, which is supported more by short - term technical factors rather than fundamental improvements. Trade concerns and policy uncertainties are continuously undermining market confidence.
Trading recommendations mainly focus on going long on pullbacks and shorting on rebounds as a supplement. In the short term, pay attention to the resistance level of 64.3-64.8 above, and the support level of 62.0-61.5 below.
Oil trading strategy:
buy @ 62.00-62.30
sl 61.10
tp 63.20-63.60
Set necessary SL orders to control trading risks!
Gold🔢 Elliott Wave Count
The waves are labeled (1) through (5), indicating the current move is within the 5th wave of a major impulsive cycle.
The third wave was the largest, which aligns with typical Elliott Wave behavior.
The fourth wave appears to have completed around 2022.
📊 Key Technical Levels
Major Resistance (~$3,500): The 5th wave is approaching a critical resistance zone, marked by the blue horizontal line near $3,500.
Support Zone (~$2,175): A strong support level from the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement is highlighted in orange. This could serve as a downside target if a correction occurs.
📈 Price Channels
There is a primary ascending channel that has guided price action since the 2015 low. The current price is testing the upper boundary of this channel — a classic signal of potential overextension.
A steeper internal channel has formed, indicating a sharp acceleration in bullish momentum over recent years.
USDJPY / 6J1! - Compelling reversal pointThe Yen futures (inverted from USD.JPY) are entering a multi-year resistance level. Considering the yen has arrived at this zone on one-sided trading with high momentum, a reversal trade is compelling from a market psychology perspective. As an additional non-technical confluence, there are also news rumours circulating on social media streams regarding an imminent new trade agreement between the two countries.
If prices remain static for the next hour, the daily close will print a shooting star reversal candlestick pattern. Using a retracement entry at today's developing POC, which roughly aligns to the 0.382 intraday fib level, with a stop above the intraday (H1) swing high. A RR at opening of approximately 1:10 is available. Ideally, risk would be managed on H1 time frame for this type of trade.
Note USD.JPY Forex charting will be inverted from the futures.
Gold: Bearish, may fall below 3300📊 Yesterday, gold resumed its bullish move after a minor pullback, breaking through the 3400 level and reaching around 3440 during today’s early session, before starting to retrace.
📉 In the chart I shared yesterday, the black line represents the key bull-bear boundary. The current price has already broken below this level, and if it fails to reclaim it, the trend may shift toward bearish in the short term.
📌 Key support levels to watch:
First support: 3383
Next support: 3350
If selling intensifies, there’s a real chance price may break below 3300
Gold is strong and faces adjustments today!For gold today, the morning surge and fall broke the pattern of the morning cycle rise, which means that this wave of unilateral rise from 3211 to 3357 can temporarily come to an end. This time the whole increase was as high as 146 US dollars, and there was no correction throughout the whole process. This kind of extreme market situation is rare in history. The bold ones will die of overeating and the timid ones will starve to death. It is very suitable for novices who have just entered the market. Blindly chasing more will have a miraculous effect, which is the so-called novice protection period.
As the market will be closed tomorrow for Easter, gold is destined not to rise like yesterday, but will enter a period of shock correction. The decline from 3357-3320 reached 37 US dollars, so focus on the pressure of 3342 and try to participate in the short position to see the decline. The strong pressure is at the high point of 3356-3357. If it does not break the high during the day, you can still go short; the support below is 3320-3305. If it touches 3305, you can go long to see the rebound.
Gold pullback corrects bullish trend but remains unchanged!In today's short-term operation of gold, it is recommended to focus on longs on callbacks, supplemented by shorts on rebounds. The upper short-term focus is on the 3350-3357 first-line resistance, and the lower short-term focus is on the 3310-3315 first-line support. All friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3355-3357, stop loss 6 points, target around 3335-3320, and look at 3315 if it breaks;
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3310-3315, stop loss 6 points, target around 3335-3345, and look at 3360 if it breaks;
Daily chart MACD double lines upwardThis week, the market focused on three core events, namely, the direction of Trump's tariff policy, the progress of the US-Iran nuclear negotiations, and the trend of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. Based on the evolution of these events, it is recommended that everyone should pay close attention to the trend of the US dollar. As for the performance of gold this week, we continue with our consistent views and adhere to the strategy of bullish but not guessing the top. The specific trading strategy is to wait for a callback before arranging long orders. Once there is an adjustment opportunity, we can go long on the bullish trend.
From the analysis of the 4-hour chart, the lower support is near the 3385-3393 line, and the upper pressure is around the 3440-44 line. Given that the current price is at a historical high, it is recommended to be cautious in chasing orders and wait patiently for sufficient adjustments before entering the market.
Operation strategy:
Gold is recommended to go long at the 3385-93 line, with a stop loss at 3378, and the target is the 3435-3440 line. If it breaks, continue to hold;
Gold opened higher this week with great momentumInterpretation of the news: U.S. President Trump’s extensive tariffs and uncertainty about his trade policy have disrupted global markets and dimmed the global economic outlook. This has prompted investors to withdraw from US assets. In addition, Trump's criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell last week pushed the US dollar index to a low in more than three years, making gold denominated in US dollars more price-competitive for overseas buyers. I believe that the recent rapid rise in gold prices is mainly driven by three aspects: concerns about the global trade war, a weaker US dollar, and risk aversion caused by the high uncertainty of Trump's policies.
Analysis of gold trend: The current trend of gold is non-technical, that is, hedging due to tariff conflicts. With the escalation of tariffs, gold continues to be abnormally strong. With a slight easing, gold will also fall back quickly. Although there was no major fundamental event last weekend, the overall market sentiment is dominated by gold mainstream hedging, and potential concerns about the US debt crisis and the credibility of the US dollar continue! Last week, gold adjusted in the short term, falling directly from above 3350 to 3284, and then quickly rebounded due to the influence of fundamentals, which basically met the expectations of the day, but from the closing point of view, the weekly line closed with a large positive line with an upper shadow slightly longer than the lower shadow, and after such a pattern ended, gold is expected to continue to hit a new high at the beginning of this week.
The Dual Crisis of the US Dollar and US DebtGold has been strong recently, and both technical and fundamental factors show that bulls are in a dominant position. Although there is no clear reversal signal at the daily level of gold, the high-level pullback is more like a normal adjustment in the rising process rather than a trend reversal. We still need to remain vigilant and pay close attention to market dynamics, especially the risk of high-level reversal. At present, the upper resistance is 3485-3490, and the lower support is 3444-3440. In terms of operation, I suggest shorting on rebounds and long on pullbacks. Once the market direction changes suddenly, it is particularly important to withdraw in time and avoid risks.
Operation strategy 1: It is recommended to go short at 3465-3470 on the rebound, stop loss at 3480, and the target is 3445-3430.
Operation strategy 2: It is recommended to go long at 3430-3425 on the pullback, stop loss at 3417, and the target is 3450-3480, and the target is 3500 if it breaks through.
Will gold continue to rise after the correction?At present, the short-term support of 4 hours is at 3442 of the 5-day moving average. If the extremely strong pattern falls back to 3442, it will be more. Further support is near the early high of 3435, which is also the support level for falling back and long positions. At the same time, it is also near the middle track of the hourly level, and the maximum support level for falling back at the hourly level. The intraday watershed is the early low of 3412. If it is broken, the market will turn weak. From the perspective of time, gold will rise in the Asian session, and there will be a second high in the European session. Focus on the strength of the European session to layout the US session. Today, gold will rise to $3,500, and the expected rise this year is $4,200-4,700. On the whole, today's short-term operation of gold suggests that callbacks should be the main focus, and rebound shorts should be supplemented. The top short-term focus is on the first-line resistance of 3500-3530, and the bottom short-term focus is on the first-line support of 3410-3440. All friends must keep up with the rhythm.
Short order strategy:
Strategy 1: Short 20% of the gold position in batches when it rebounds to around 3500-3503, stop loss 6 points, target around 3470-3450, and look at the 3440 line if it breaks;
Long order strategy:
Strategy 2: Long 20% of the gold position in batches when it pulls back to around 3440-3443, stop loss 6 points, target around 3475-3495, and look at the 3500 line if it breaks;
XAU/USD M30(30-min XAU/USD):
Strong bearish momentum recently with a steep drop.
Price is currently consolidating in a tight range — kind of a bearish flag or descending triangle pattern.
Wait for breakout the zone with volume or retest the trendline.
Volume spiked on the sell-off, and tapered off during this sideways movement — typical of a bearish continuation.
XAUUSD GOLD PRICE WEEKLY UPDATEOANDA:XAUUSD
GOLD has been forming a massive bullish cup and handle pattern since 2011. it has almost been completed which is looking quite bullish. ofcourse we still need to break the upside in order to move further upside.
I think within 1.5 year we will see atleast $3000 on the chart. despite people fear over recession i still believe within by the end of next year we will see gold price close to 3k.
Disclaimer: this is not financial advice
Gold - still bullish. Already in wave iii of 5 targeting 3200+ ?Gold is now trading higher than the previous ATH at the end of October 24 and is still within the rising channel.
This might already be subwave iii of 5 targeting the 3200+ area later this year.
That could then mark the end of this bullish trend.
Gold levels for long positions target ATH.GOLD (XAU/USD) – Smart Money Buying Opportunity!
Gold just tapped into a key Buying Zone after pulling back from its All-Time High (ATH).
Price is now sitting at a potential launchpad for bulls, aligning perfectly with Smart Money Concepts.
Entry Zone: 3357 – 3350
Target: 3500
SL: Below 3328
Risk-to-Reward: Ultra clean setup with 3R+ potential
Backup Plan: Extreme Buying Zone at 3244 for deeper entries
This is a textbook liquidity sweep and demand re-test, with a high chance of bullish continuation.
Patience pays. Let the market come to you and strike with precision!
Like, share, or save if you're trading Gold this week!
Silver Price Forecast(04-22-2025): Retest and Potential ReversalI’m anticipating that Silver prices will retest the 33.6 - 33.7 area in the near term. Once this level is reached, I expect a potential reversal and subsequent decline from there.
Key Points to Watch:
Retest Zone: The 33.6 - 33.7 range is critical, and price action within this zone will be key to determining the next move.
Potential Fall: After the retest, a downward move could unfold, presenting potential selling opportunities.
Confirmation: Always look for confirmation signals, such as price rejection or bearish indicators, before considering any trades.
As always, keep an eye on market conditions and trade responsibly!
Analysis of gold trading ideasThe XAU/USD market continues its impressive rally, recently reaching a new all-time high at 3500 before pulling back toward support and the previous day's high. The price action completed an ABC structure prior to this retracement.
Currently, the market may be forming a triangle or flag pattern, similar to past consolidation setups. As long as the price remains above the upward trendline and the critical 3420 support level, the probability of a trend continuation remains high. A retest of the ATH level followed by a move higher is likely, with the next target at the resistance zone around 3520