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2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Bullish read was perfect and good for 300+ points. Now the air gets thinner again. Above 19500 longs are probably not a good trade since the downside is sub 19100 and upside probably limited to 19700 max. If market holds above the 1h 20ema tomorrow, I’ll try longs but if now, we could see some profit taking again. comment : Hope you took the amazing longs today. Now it’s very tough to be a bull above 19500. We have big rejections from 19500 and 19600 on Wednesday and we have to assume that these prices continue to be resistance. If you want to buy this you would have to risk down to 19080 to make maybe 100 points. Not a good trade. I would rather try to scalp for 10-20 points than coming up with good trades from 19500. I will look for longs near the 30m or 1h 20ema, if they show to be support. No shorts until US starts the selling too. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19700 bull case: Bulls want to retest 19650 and then also the ath at 19802. No reason to not get there because we have multiple measured move targets or patterns that lead there or higher. 20000 is still possible, if we get follow through buying tomorrow. If you are thinking “this can’t go higher, the german economy is a dumpster fire and all news are beyond bad blablabla” I got bad news for you. This has nothing to do with any logical reason to trade near the ath. Everyone who wanted to short this because of logical reasons already has and market is moving where the least resistance is. Call it a pain trade if you will. We have 2 years of negative GDP print and dax is going for 20000. Stop looking for reasons why markets are doing stuff. Senseless waste of time and energy. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears want to keep 19500-19650 resistance to prevent more bulls to join for 19800 or 20000. I would not look for shorts to be honest. US markets are unstoppable and you would try to short during a euphoric wave. I do think below 19400 more bulls would cover again and we can trade to 19100 again but I would only join them on strong momentum but I still favor the bulls to print 20000 rather than bears selling this down below 19200 again. Invalidation is above 19700. short term: Neutral. Leaning slightly bullish if we just continue higher and we have a clear support with the 30m or 1h 20ema. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: Took most off on 19500, leaving runner for 20000. trade of the day: I called the long and long it was.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-11-07 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. All bullish targets are met for me and I will not long anything above 5980 anymore. Too early for shorts, wait for bears to come around with force. Blow-off top with 6050 or 6100 is not out of the question, so best to join on momentum or sit on hands. Next big points will be made to the downside. comment: All my bullish targets are now met and I would not look for longs above 5980. I got one more measured move higher to 6160 but that’s just beyond insane to expect this to be hit. But so was 6000 and here we are. All bubbles burst eventually, so will this. current market cycle: bull wedge key levels: 5720 - 6013 bull case: Bulls got 6000 and now want to continue and make this look like a real breakout above the bull wedge to trap many weak traders into longing this above 6000 and make them exit liquidity. At least that’s what I see potentially happening here. No interest in longs up here or looking for arguments for bulls. This is the biggest bubble there ever was. Next big points will be made to the downside. Invalidation is below 5720. bear case: Bears still don’t have much. The selling will start once enough bulls begin to take profits. Market is trying again to break above a multi week bull pattern and those rarely succeed. Don’t try to be an early bear and burn your account. This could easily go 50-100 points higher before turning. Measured move down from 6000 to 5730 leads exactly to the September low, where the bull trend line started. If we hit that price in 2024, you read this here first. Invalidation is above 6050. short term : Neutral. Scalps only for me until bears come around big time. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-13: Very rough guess for the remaining trading weeks in 2024. Spike up, decent correction (~10%), nasty (blow off top) year end rally if earnings hold in Q4. Don’t trade based on that guess. Update 2024-11-07: Blow-off top happening right now and 6013 could be the end of it, I don’t know. Next comes the correction before bulls try another run at the highs during santa rally. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Buy anwhere. Again. 1h 20ema not touched since Tuesday. Trends do not get stronger than this.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
FED RATE DAY , XAUUSD ANALYSIS SEMS 8-11-24🚨Fed Expected to Lower Rates, But Inflation Puts Limits on Future Cuts📌 The Federal Reserve is projected to reduce the federal funds rate by 0.25% on Thursday, bringing it to a range of 4.5%-4.75%. However, bond market signals suggest that the pace of future rate cuts may be slower than initially expected. The yield on two-year Treasuries, a reliable indicator of Fed policy shifts, shows caution. This yield has historically anticipated Fed actions, such as rate hikes in 2021 and the easing measures started last September. 📝Gold Price Outlook Amid Fed Rate Cut📊 If the Fed opts for gradual rate cuts in the coming quarter, it could weaken the US dollar, which tends to boost gold as a non-yielding asset. A weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors. Investors expect gold to rise following the rate cut, as lower rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold. However, with the anticipated rate cuts already priced into gold's current price, the short-term impact may be limited. Expected Price range as per our panel analysis : 🔻Upper Range : $2730-$2760-$2790-$2820-$2850 🔺Lower Range: $2650-$2620-$2590-$2560-$2520 Range Breakout:$2620-2790 will Lead to Further Decline or Further Ascend. Despite this, analysts are optimistic that gold could reach $3,000 per ounce by year-end.( $2790 All time high on 31-10-24) 📌Gold and Interest Rates 📝💰 Gold generally moves inversely to interest rates—lower rates typically push gold prices higher by making non-yielding assets like gold more appealing. As the Fed is set to lower rates this week, many investors predict a rise in gold prices. But if these cuts are already priced in, the short-term impact could be minimal.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by sagaahhelite
VX Paths Before FOMCLooks like we'll have a pretty good setup with VX during or after FOMC. We'll probably get some volatile movements after the minutes release and then more volatility during and after Powell's speech starting 30 minutes later. VX has been getting crushed all week, back below 16 now. This will be a key watch during the volatility. I could see it spiking up to 16 and failing. If we get an initial sell off, you could look for longs when VX hits 16, stop above. Other scenario is VX doesn't rally at all and goes straight down even more which would spark yet another rally for SPY. Downside target = ~14.75 First upside target = 16.60 VX below 16 = Bullish SPY VX above 16 = Bearish SPY
CBOE:VX1!
by AdvancedPlays
Chart Idea - Bearish Setup on YM1!E-Mini Dow Jones had been making a bearish divergence on daily TF since July 2024. We also have been seeing it in an upward trend since Aug of this year. It finally it breaking today. It seems that the daily candle will close below the trend line today. If it does, we can look at the beautiful short setup on the retracement. Entry - 42950-43000 SL - 43600 TP1 - 42000 TP2 - 41000 We hardly see these kind of clean setups. There is a high probabilty that it will play out before elections in November. Not a financial advice !!
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Short
by smwajeeh
Gold Rebounds to $2700! Post-Trump Rally Shows Signs of PullbackFollowing Trump’s election-driven downturn, gold prices have fully rebounded, climbing back to the $2700 mark. However, after this sharp rise, signs of a potential pullback are becoming apparent. I believe gold is nearing a short-term peak, making this an opportune moment to start selling and capture possible downside moves to lock in profits during the adjustment. Keep an eye on the market and stay flexible to manage the upcoming volatility.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Wealth_Waves
Update on the Gold Long Trade: +10.41R Hey Traders! 📈 I'm excited to share that I closed the Gold trade at a rewarding 10.41RR! 🎉 This trade highlights the power of multi-timeframe analysis and disciplined risk management. Recap of the Trade: Market Context: On the daily timeframe, Gold was in a retracement phase. By zooming into the 1H timeframe, I spotted a reaccumulation pattern, indicating a potential continuation of the uptrend. Entry Setup: After the retracement, the 1H chart showed a strong breakout, confirming the uptrend. I entered a long position, aligning with the overall market direction. Risk Management: Implemented a trailing stop to protect profits while allowing the trade to breathe and capture additional upside. Key Takeaways: Multi-Timeframe Analysis Works: Combining higher and lower timeframes can reveal high-probability setups that might be missed when looking at a single timeframe. Stay Disciplined with Risk Management: Using tools like trailing stops can help maximize gains and limit losses. This experience reinforces how effective market structure analysis and proper risk management can lead to successful trades. I hope this breakdown helps you in your trading journey! Did you catch this move or spot similar setups? Share your experiences below! Let's continue to learn and grow together. 🚀 Happy Trading! Disclaimer: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Trading involves risk, and you should conduct your own research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TraderOuss_LumaNex