Futures market
Trading Strategy (XAUUSD) – June 25, 2025 After a sharp decline in the previous session, XAUUSD has shown a mild recovery and is currently trading around 3,332 USD. However, price action suggests this could merely be a pullback within a broader downtrend, as gold has yet to break above the key resistance zone.
Technical Analysis
Price Action
Gold has bounced from the support zone between 3,291 – 3,317 USD, which has historically acted as a strong demand area. This zone also aligns with the Fibonacci 0.382 retracement from the previous bullish leg.
However, XAUUSD remains below the key resistance zone at 3,373 – 3,392 USD, which is a confluence of:
- The Fibonacci 0.618 retracement from the most recent downtrend
- A historical supply zone that has been rejected multiple times
- The upper boundary of the sideways range formed since May
- If price fails to break through this zone in the coming sessions, the risk of continued downside remains high.
RSI Indicator
- The RSI (14) is currently hovering around the neutral zone (49–54), indicating that the rebound lacks the strength needed to confirm a trend reversal.
- The RSI has not crossed above the 55 threshold, suggesting the dominant trend is still bearish.
Key Technical Levels to Watch
Resistance:
- 3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluent resistance zone (Fibonacci 0.618 + prior supply zone)
- 3,435 – 3,452 USD: Major swing high, a key medium-term reference level
Support:
- 3,291 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support zone, still holding strong
- 3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential downside target if the bearish momentum resumes
Suggested Trade Setups
Scenario 1 – Buy if price holds above 3,291 and shows confirmation signals
Entry: 3,295 – 3,300 USD
Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD
Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD
Conditions: Must show clear bullish reversal patterns (Pin Bar, Bullish Engulfing) on H1 or H4 timeframe
Scenario 2 – Sell if price rejects from resistance zone with confirmation candle
Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD
Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD
Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD
Conditions: Clear bearish rejection candle + declining volume
Note: XAUUSD is currently in a technical rebound phase after a strong drop but lacks solid reversal confirmation. Traders should closely monitor the price reaction near the 3,373 – 3,392 USD resistance zone over the next sessions. This area will determine whether the downtrend will resume or a reversal begins.
Stay tuned for more daily trading strategies, and make sure to save this analysis if you find it helpful for your trading plan.
Strategy analysis by @Henrybillion
XAUUSD Technical Outlook – Rebound or Trap?1. Market Overview
After a sharp rejection near the 0.618 Fibonacci level, XAUUSD has pulled back and is now trading around 3,323 USD. Although price has stabilized somewhat, technical indicators suggest this is likely a corrective move within a prevailing downtrend.
2. Technical Analysis
Price Action
XAUUSD is currently hovering near 3,323 USD after a failed attempt to break above the resistance zone at 3,373–3,392 USD — an area marked by:
The 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent downtrend
Repeated historical rejections.
The upper boundary of a sideways consolidation range from early June.
Recent candlesticks show indecision and rejection from higher levels, suggesting sellers are still in control.
Support Zone Behavior
The price recently bounced from the 3,294–3,317 USD range, where strong historical support and the 0.382 Fibonacci level align.
This zone continues to hold, but if broken, could open the door to deeper declines toward the 3,250 or even 3,224 USD levels.
RSI Indicator
RSI remains flat around the neutral zone, indicating a lack of bullish momentum.
No significant divergence or breakout signals are currently visible on the daily RSI chart.
3. Key Technical Levels
Resistance:
3,373 – 3,392 USD: Confluence resistance zone (0.618 Fib + historical supply).
3,435 – 3,453 USD: Previous swing high – key medium-term benchmark
Support:
3,294 – 3,317 USD: Immediate support, holding for now.
3,250 – 3,224 USD: Potential next target zone if bearish pressure resumes.
4. Trade Setup Scenarios.
Scenario 1 – Buy if support holds and bullish confirmation appears
Entry: 3,295 – 3,305 USD.
Stop-loss: Below 3,289 USD.
Take-profit: 3,340 – 3,355 – 3,370 USD.
Condition: Look for bullish reversal patterns (e.g., Bullish Engulfing, Pin Bar) on H1–H4.
Scenario 2 – Sell on rejection from resistance zone
Entry: 3,370 – 3,375 USD.
Stop-loss: Above 3,392 USD.
Take-profit: 3,330 – 3,310 – 3,290 USD.
Condition: Clear bearish rejection candlestick with diminishing volume
Note:
XAUUSD remains in a vulnerable state. The current move may be a technical rebound rather than a true reversal. Traders should watch closely how price behaves around the 3,373–3,392 USD zone in the coming sessions. A breakout could signal a new bullish leg, while another rejection would likely confirm a continuation of the bearish trend.
Gold Price Struggles at Key Support ZoneTechnical Analysis – Data as of June 25–26, 2025
In the latest trading sessions, XAUUSD continues to move within a narrow range, reflecting a cautious market sentiment awaiting clearer signals. The daily chart shows price hovering around the 3,341 USD level — aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and intersecting key descending trendlines and previous correction zones.
1. Notable Price Action:
Gold has bounced slightly from the 3,294 USD support and retested the 3,360–3,365 USD resistance but failed to break through.
Small-bodied candles with long wicks indicate indecision, suggesting that neither buyers nor sellers have a clear upper hand.
The descending trendline (blue line) is acting as a significant resistance barrier, with each bullish attempt being rejected.
2. Key Support and Resistance Levels:
Immediate Support: 3,294 – 3,296 USD
Nearby Resistance: 3,360 – 3,365 USD
Crucial Breakout Zone: 3,382 – 3,394 USD (Fibonacci 0.618 – 0.786 of the latest downleg)
3. Short-Term Trading Strategy:
If XAUUSD maintains support above 3,294 USD, a short-term technical rebound toward 3,360 – 3,394 USD is possible.
However, a clean break below 3,294 with strong volume could trigger further downside momentum, potentially targeting 3,265 USD or even 3,221 USD.
4. Overall Outlook:
The market is currently in a state of uncertainty, with neither side showing dominance. Traders are advised to wait for a decisive breakout in either direction before entering new positions. Breakout trading strategies with volume confirmation should be prioritized in this phase.
Diamond Targets Loaded 🔱 XAUUSD Trade Setup 🔱
Timeframe: 30m
📈 Price is currently respecting the ascending channel with bullish momentum. We have a clear breakout target area identified.
🎯 Target Zones (Diamonds):
💎 Diamond 1 → 3340
💎 Diamond 2 → 3345
💎 Diamond 3 → 3350
🔻 Support Zone: 3330
💣 Treasure Miss (SL): 3328
Gold may continue to rebound to 3350-3360If gold can stand above 3330 today, it will stimulate long trading behavior to a certain extent, especially the self-rescue behavior of trapped longs. Gold may continue to rebound and is expected to reach the 3345-3355 area. So there is no need to risk shorting gold near 3330 for the time being; although gold may continue to rebound, it is still under pressure in the 3350-3360-3370 area; and gold is still weak overall, so we can consider shorting gold in the 3350-3360 area and look at the target area of 3325-3315.
The Premium privilege of my account will end on June 26, and it will stop updating here from tomorrow. Friends in the channel have already made a lot of money by following my trading strategy. Friends who have not joined yet can join and receive the latest trading strategies and trading signals as soon as possible to escort your trading!
XAU/USD - Channel Breakout (26.06.2025)The XAU/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a Potential Buying Opportunity due to a recent Formation of a Channel Breakout Pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the upside and a higher likelihood of further advances in the coming hours.
Possible Long Trade:
Entry: Consider Entering A Long Position around Trendline Of The Pattern.
Target Levels:
1st Resistance – 3385
2nd Resistance – 3410
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XAU/USD Reversal Signal Bullish Momentum: Targeting 3337The XAU/USD 15-minute chart indicates a strong bullish reversal after price action bounced from the key support zone near 3302. A clear breakout from the descending channel signals that bearish momentum has faded. Price is now trading above the Ichimoku cloud, reinforcing the shift in short-term sentiment. This move is supported by strong bullish candles and rising momentum, suggesting buyers have regained control. The price has also broken a key intraday resistance level, opening the door for further upside. The projected move targets the upper resistance zone around 3377, as marked on the chart. With favourable risk-to-reward and confirmation from technical indicators, this setup aligns well with a bullish intraday trade.
Entry Point: 3330
Target Point: 3377
Natural Gas Futures Signal Breakdown Below Mid-Band Support
The most recent candle closed below the middle Bollinger Band (20 SMA), indicating potential downside momentum.
The price recently spiked toward the upper band (~$4.20) but was strongly rejected, creating a bearish reversal pattern.
Volume has been increasing on down days, especially the last few sessions, suggesting institutional selling pressure.
GDP and price range accumulated above 3300⭐️GOLDEN INFORMATION:
Gold prices held firm during the North American session on Wednesday, climbing over 0.30% as easing tensions between Israel and Iran boosted risk sentiment. Meanwhile, disappointing US housing data could prompt future action from the Federal Reserve (Fed). However, Fed Chair Jerome Powell's continued hawkish stance has limited further upside for the precious metal.
At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $3,334, up 0.34%, as the US Dollar pares earlier gains and Wall Street posts modest advances.
⭐️Personal comments NOVA:
moving in accumulation range following 2 trend lines, trading above 3300
⭐️SET UP GOLD PRICE:
🔥SELL GOLD zone: 3364- 3366 SL 3371
TP1: $3352
TP2: $3345
TP3: $3330
🔥BUY GOLD zone: $3302-$3300 SL $3295
TP1: $3315
TP2: $3328
TP3: $3340
⭐️Technical analysis:
Based on technical indicators EMA 34, EMA89 and support resistance areas to set up a reasonable BUY order.
⭐️NOTE:
Note: Nova wishes traders to manage their capital well
- take the number of lots that match your capital
- Takeprofit equal to 4-6% of capital account
- Stoplose equal to 2-3% of capital account
June 26, 2025 - XAUUSD GOLD Analysis and Potential OpportunitySummary:
The situation is getting interesting — Trump is reportedly considering naming Powell’s successor early, which is providing support for gold.
For now, the plan is to buy on dips to support. However, if Trump changes course again, we must stay flexible and respond to any reversals with clear plans.
🔍 Key Levels to Watch:
• 3370 – Resistance
• 3364 – Resistance
• 3350 – Midpoint / Bull-Bear Line
• 3340 – Key Resistance
• 3329 – Support
• 3312 – Intraday Key Support
• 3300 – Psychological Support
• 3295 – Support
• 3285 – Support
📉 Intraday Strategy:
• SELL if price breaks below 3325 → watch 3321, then 3312, 3305, 3300
• BUY if price holds above 3335 → target 3340, then 3345, 3350, 3358
👉 If you want to know how I time entries and set stop-losses, hit the like button so I know there's interest — I may publish a detailed post by the weekend if support continues!
Disclaimer: This is my personal opinion, not financial advice. Trade with caution and always manage your risk.
6.26 Gold intraday analysis guideOn Wednesday (June 25), international spot gold rose slightly during the US trading session, but was still suppressed by the 20-day moving average (US$3,355). The RSI (14) was at 48.7, in the neutral range of 40-60, suggesting that the market lacks a clear direction. US$3,355 (20-day moving average) has become the recent watershed between long and short positions. If it breaks through this level, it may test the psychological barrier of US$3,400. The support below is US$3,245 (the low point on May 29). If it fails, it may drop to the integer level of 3,200 and US$3,121 (the low point on May 15). Stability of the geopolitical situation: If the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East continues, the outflow of safe-haven funds may further suppress the gold price. Fed policy expectations: If the July non-agricultural and CPI data show that inflation is cooling down, it may rekindle expectations of interest rate cuts and boost gold. The current gold market is in a "wait-and-see mode", and both long and short sides lack decisive momentum. Traders need to pay close attention to: US economic data: especially employment and inflation indicators for the Fed's policy path. Geopolitical dynamics: Any breakdown of the ceasefire agreement could quickly push up safe-haven demand. Dollar trend: If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, a stronger dollar may further suppress gold prices. Gold is expected to maintain range fluctuations in the short term, with the $3,355 moving average resistance and $3,245 support forming a key trading range. The direction of the breakthrough depends on new fundamental catalysts.
Personal operation analysis:
Trend: Oscillating trend
Support: Near 3,300.00
Resistance: Near 3,335.50
Strategy:
View logic: Short view near 3,335-3,340, stop loss 3,345, take profit near 3,300--3,280, and follow the stop loss 300 points.
Crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, waiting for direction
💡Message Strategy
Middle East ceasefire eases supply concerns, but risk premium remains
Oil prices rose more than 1% on the day as investors weighed the status of the ceasefire between Iran and Israel. Although both sides have announced an end to hostilities, US intelligence reports show that Iran's nuclear capabilities have only been temporarily damaged. ING analysts pointed out that although immediate concerns about supply disruptions have subsided, potential risks remain, a factor that may support spot prices in the short term.
Previously, crude oil prices soared after the US military action on Iranian infrastructure, but prices have retreated as the ceasefire continues. Although the geopolitical premium has been reduced, it has not been fully digested.
API shows a sharp drop in inventories, traders await EIA report
Industry data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that US crude oil inventories fell sharply by 4.23 million barrels in the week ending June 20, far higher than the expected drop of 800,000 barrels. Gasoline and distillate inventories increased by 400,000 barrels each.
Market focus now turns to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) report scheduled for release on Wednesday. Traders were expecting a 1.2 million-barrel draw in inventories, and confirmation of that figure by the EIA, widely viewed as an industry benchmark, would reinforce expectations of tighter supply.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil fluctuates upward in the medium term and tests around 67. The K-line closes with a large real negative line, which has not yet destroyed the moving average system and is still supported. The medium-term objective upward trend remains unchanged.
However, from the perspective of momentum, the MACD indicator crosses downward above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is weakening. It is expected that the medium-term trend of crude oil will fall into a high-level oscillation pattern.
The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) is in a narrow range of consolidation, with a small fluctuation. The oil price repeatedly crosses the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction fluctuates. In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator fast and slow lines slowly rise below the zero axis, and the long and short positions are in a stalemate, with no obvious advantage on one side. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain a consolidation pattern during the day.
💰Strategy Package
Short Position:67.00-67.20,SL:67.80,Target: 65.50-64.50
Long Position:64.00-64.20,SL:63.50,Target: 65.50-66.50
Daily Analysis- XAUUSD (Thursday, 26th June 2024)Bias: Bullish
USD News(Red Folder):
-Final GDP q/q
-Unemployment Claims
Notes:
- Minor support form
- Looking for price to reach 0.382 fib level
- Potential BUY if there's
confirmation on lower timeframe
- Pivot point: 3305
Disclaimer:
This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy.
Gold Peaked, Deep Analysis: MACD & RSI, Targets: $3,131 & $2,904Gold (XAUUSD) already peaked. The 22 Apr session was a clear top signal. A very strong one at that. The chart is showing a lower (red arrows) and overall distribution channel. Trading volume continues to drop. Bearish volume is predominant.
Gold produced a strong rally, it lasted 159 days. Total growth amounts to +39% from bottom to top, starting November 2024, end April 2025.
It's been 64 days since the all-time high. No new highs, no bullish momentum. Geopolitical factors that would push Gold to new all-time highs, a war, did show up recently, a surprise event and yet Gold's price failed to move higher. This is a warning signal.
The RSI is weak now. Gold is trading very high, a very strong price but with a risk RSI. This is another warning signal, a strong one. Bullish would be the contrary, low price with a strong RSI. A weak RSI at this point can be interpreted as the bullish force being exhausted.
The daily MACD is pretty bad. Trending fully down with no possibility of anything bullish. Here is the chart.
This is a friendly reminder. Switch to Crypto.
You've been warned.
Namaste.