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Gold: Short-Term Fluctuations, Long-Term TriumphsAs a market analyst, I observe that global gold prices currently stand at $2,647 per ounce, with February 2025 gold futures on the Comex New York exchange priced at $2,675 per ounce, reflecting a 0.03% increase from the previous day. Over the past week, gold has shown a solid 0.8% gain. From my perspective, gold has had a remarkable year, and while it is now undergoing a phase of correction, I firmly believe this pullback will not last long. My analysis suggests that gold prices will rise further in the coming months. This outlook is supported by several key factors, including loose monetary policies, strong central bank buying activity, and growing demand for safe-haven assets, all of which are likely to drive gold to new record highs this year. I’m also closely following comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell after each meeting, as these are crucial for shaping investor expectations for 2025. Inflation remains a pressing issue, still falling short of the Fed’s 2% target. According to Nicky Shiels, a metals strategist at MKS PAMP SA, gold prices could reach $2,500 per ounce, or even as high as $3,000 per ounce, depending on how effectively the Fed manages inflation. In the short term, my projection is that gold will trade within a range of $2,647 to $2,760 per ounce. For the longer term, I align with Goldman Sachs' forecast that gold could achieve $3,000 per ounce by the end of 2025. This aligns with the broader trends I’m observing, where persistent economic uncertainties and evolving monetary policies continue to shape a favorable environment for gold.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Trader-Briannnn
##Gold Technical Analysis for the Upcoming Week 15/12/2024### Current Market Overview Gold has shown significant price movements recently, encountering challenges in breaking through key resistance levels. As we approach a crucial week with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, here’s a comprehensive technical analysis for gold (XAU/USD) to guide your trading decisions. ### Recent Price Action Breakout Attempt: Gold made an attempt to breach the resistance zone around $2700-$2720 but failed to maintain the bullish momentum. This failure suggests potential exhaustion among buyers and could indicate profit-taking ahead of the FOMC week. Post-PPI Movement: Following the release of the Producer Price Index (PPI) data, gold faced significant selling pressure, highlighting the market's sensitivity to inflationary signals that may influence future monetary policy. Current Price: As of the latest close, gold is trading at $2648, which is below the 60% Fibonacci retracement level from the last bullish impulse. This positioning indicates a possible shift in the short-term trend from bullish to bearish, or at the very least, a period of consolidation. ### Support and Resistance Levels - Support Levels: - Immediate support is noted around $2638. - Further supports are at $2623 and $2590. A break below these levels could accelerate declines towards $2565/2530 or even $2485. - Resistance Levels: - The recent high around $2692-$2721 now serves as key resistance, with $2671 also acting as a hurdle. For gold to reverse the current bearish sentiment, it would need to rise above this resistance zone decisively. ### Potential Scenarios for Next Week Bearish Scenario: If gold continues to trade below the 60% retracement level and fails to reclaim the $2692, we can expect further downward movement. Key levels to monitor would be the mentioned supports. A decisive break below these could indicate a deeper correction, targeting $2530/2485 or lower. Bullish Reversal: Should gold find strength and bounce back—potentially due to renewed safe-haven demand or a dovish signal from central banks—watch for a move above $2722 for confirmation. A sustained rise with good volume could invalidate the current bearish setup and signal a new upward trend. ### Anticipated Impact of FOMC Rate Decision FOMC Statements and Dot Plot: The FOMC's language, especially regarding future rate paths, will be essential. If hints of more aggressive rate cuts for 2025 are suggested, a bullish reaction could ensue for gold. Conversely, a hawkish or neutral stance could exert downward pressure on gold prices. Market Expectations: Current expectations lean towards a rate cut, but traders should be vigilant for indications of the Fed's overall policy aggressiveness. Any surprises in the FOMC decision could lead to substantial price swings for gold. Volatility Ahead: As the FOMC announcement approaches, increased volatility is expected. Traders should be prepared for whipsaws—sharp price movements that may reverse quickly. ### Post-FOMC Scenarios Bullish Case: If the Fed adopts a dovish tone, leading to a weaker dollar and lower yields, gold may become an attractive hedge. If it reclaims and holds above $2680-$2716 post-FOMC, we could see a resurgence in bullish momentum, targeting new highs. Bearish Case: Should the Fed's messaging be less dovish than anticipated, or if fewer rate cuts are indicated, we could see a strengthening of the dollar, pushing gold down further. Prices below $2600 may see intensified bearish momentum. Neutral or Consolidation: If the FOMC decision aligns with expectations without providing new insights, gold might continue to consolidate until another significant catalyst emerges. ### Conclusion The upcoming FOMC decision is pivotal for gold's price trajectory. Prepare for various scenarios based on the Fed's policy direction, and utilize this analysis to guide your trades effectively. Stay informed, stay alert, and best of luck in your trading endeavors!
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSD
by SRFXGlobal
Technical Analysis of Gold (XAU/USD) 15-Minute Chart The current price is trading around 2649. A focus on bearish potential below this level could indicate continuing the downward trend if it breaks down further. A bearish outlook for gold below 2649 with the formation of a head and shoulders pattern coupled with a rising wedge is a significant indication to monitor. If the price tests and breaks below 2645, it could lead to further declines, reinforcing the bearish bias. Always remember to manage risk accordingly and adjust your strategy based on real-time market developments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SRFXGlobal
1216 Weekly outlook GOLDHello traders, December highlights, the last heavyweight data week before Christmas, the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates! The Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision and economic projections this Thursday (03:00), followed by a press conference at 03:30 led by Chairman Powell. Currently, market consensus indicates a 97% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut rates by 25 basis points at its meeting on December 17-18. Importantly, the market expects that after this rate cut, the Fed may begin to pause rate cuts in early 2025. Therefore, Powell's remarks and the latest economic forecasts will be very significant, as the Fed may slow down the pace of rate cuts. With this trend expectation, the inverse correlation of a weakening gold and strengthening dollar has already re-emerged. The latest daily chart of gold compared to the dollar shows that the dollar has consistently remained above the daily EMA and is currently in a consolidation phase, poised for an upward move. Gold is supplemented with this latest daily chart from Monday, which shows a double-top bearish pattern. Currently, the bears are dominant, and the daily candlestick chart is running below the EMA. Scott Rubner, a senior capital flow expert at Goldman Sachs, may provide some insights into capital flows before Christmas: First, the impact of global, especially the Federal Reserve's, interest rate cut expectations. With the market generally expecting a 97% chance of a rate cut at the Fed's December meeting, this could stimulate investors' risk appetite. Rate cuts usually mean lower borrowing costs, which promotes consumption and investment, thereby driving up the stock market. Second, the so-called annual "Santa Claus rally." The "Santa Claus rally" refers to the seasonal rise in the market at the end of each year, driven by holiday spirit and investor optimism. If the market's expectations for rate cuts are confirmed, there is indeed a higher likelihood that the S&P 500 index will rebound in the last few trading days of 2024. Third, the impact of year-end corporate buyback plans on market capital flows. Corporate stock buybacks are an effective means of driving up stock prices. When companies announce large-scale buyback plans, the market usually interprets this as confidence in the company's prospects, which also boosts investor confidence. It is reported that U.S. companies have approved stock buybacks worth $1 trillion by 2025, which could also drive the stock market significantly higher! As risk assets strengthen, investors' risk appetite typically increases. Gold does not generate interest or dividends, so the opportunity cost of holding gold rises. Investors are likely to prefer allocating funds to higher-risk, higher-return assets like stocks rather than traditional safe-haven assets like gold. A weakening of gold before 2025 is highly probable. **Gold** The bullish plan for gold laid out before last Thursday has completed its trading plan, with all profit targets reached. The trading plan from last Thursday aimed to continue the previous upward trend, looking for new bullish entry opportunities. 2690 was identified as a support level for entering long positions, but it became a resistance area on Friday. After no bullish entry signals appeared on the 1-hour chart on Thursday, the updated trading plan based on the latest 4-hour chart is as follows: **Friday 4-hour chart trading plan:** Before the U.S. market opens, look for 1-hour entry signals to short gold. TP1: 2648 TP2: 2618 TP3: 2575 Currently, the first target of 2648 has been reached; it is best to move the stop loss to the entry position and continue holding the short position. Considering the above 4-hour chart, wait for new consolidation signals; before this week's critical data and time points, gold will likely continue to decline, so patience is key! GOOD LUCK! LESS IS MORE!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FUNTRADER-Vera
NQ1 - Buy The Rate Cut DipThese post interest rate decision areas tend to be high volatility with wild whipsaws. We've certainly had high volatility with an immediate slam dump reaction today. But bonds also dumped today and in what appears to be in a high time frame downtrend: This is positive for stock indexes. A 0.25 rate cut does suggest the FED is on track with inflation and it was what was expected. So I think there is a good chance that this dump is the first wave of whipsaw and there may be significant bullish cause in the pipeline. There is no telling where this dump ends but it has hit support and that does somewhat increase the chance of a reversal. I'll give this one room to breathe and it may hit the lower support where I will add to my position if it does. I think we may see a very bullish 2025 and this area might be a great dip buy opportunity. Not advice.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by dRends35
1
Trading Silver: Sell Rallies Amid XAG/USD’s Bearish MomentumLast week, OANDA:XAGUSD made several attempts to break through the 32.30 resistance zone but failed to sustain any momentum. Much like the price action in OANDA:XAUUSD , Thursday was marked by a bearish engulfing candle, which was even more significant given the preceding day's Doji formation. Following the formation of this bearish engulfing candle, the price dropped sharply, reaching a local low around the 30.30 level, marking a 2,000-pip drop from the previous high. The structure forming since mid-September resembles a potential head and shoulders pattern, although it has not been confirmed yet. If the price breaks below the 30.00 zone, it could put further pressure on the selling side, triggering more downside momentum. In this scenario, the next key support level to watch would be around 27.80, with the measured target for the pattern being approximately 25.00. At this point, resistance is positioned at 31.50, and any rallies approaching this level should be viewed as potential selling opportunities. Sellers may look to capitalize on these rallies, anticipating a continuation of the downtrend. Additionally, the bearish outlook is reinforced by a bearish Pin Bar on the weekly chart, which adds further weight to the negative bias. This combination of factors—bearish patterns on both the daily and weekly charts—suggests that the downward pressure could persist, with further downside potential for XAG/USD in the near term. In summary, traders should remain cautious about buying in the current environment. Instead, the focus should be on selling rallies, especially near key resistance levels, while keeping an eye on the 30.00 support level as a key area for potential breakdown.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by Mihai_Iacob
2
DAILY ANALYSIS - XAUUSD (THURS, 19th DECEMBER 2024)Bias: No Bias USD News: -Final GDP q/q -Unemployment Claims Analysis: -Ratecut on FOMC & indications of only 2 rate cut on 2025 -looking for price to retest the bearish structure -Looking for BUY/SELL if there's confirmation on lower timeframe -Pivot point: - Disclaimer: This analysis is from a personal point of view, always conduct on your own research before making any trading decisions as the analysis do not guarantee complete accuracy
BLACKBULL:XAUUSD
by HM_fxtrading
GOLD → The FED Rate Decision Ahead: What Should You Do?Dear Traders, Gold (XAUUSD) has made a notable move, successfully testing the strong support level at 2633 before traders shifted into buying mode. As a result, the price broke above 2643, sparking new optimism as upcoming discussions around potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (FED) take center stage. Currently, there is a 93% probability that the FED will cut rates by 25 basis points. However, the overarching theme is the FED's stance for the future. Hawkish hints regarding 2025 could influence the rate-cutting trajectory, an aspect the market has only partially priced in. This means any indication of a smaller rate cut could fuel strength for the U.S. dollar. Conversely, a deeper cut could act as a bullish catalyst for gold. The spotlight is firmly on FED Chair Jerome Powell's comments, as they will provide crucial insights into the economic outlook for 2024 amidst the backdrop of Trump-era policies that continue to play a pivotal role. That said, downside risks for gold remain elevated, particularly if the FED maintains a hawkish stance in the current climate. Technical Analysis: At the moment, gold prices are consolidating within the range of 2658 - 2633, with a breakout in either direction likely to bring about a strong momentum-driven move. The market is complex and highly volatile right now, which is why traders are advised to hold off on entering positions before the event. Waiting for volatility to subside can offer better clarity on market direction and safer opportunities. Final Advice: Patience is key in such turbulent times. Avoid getting swayed by short-term noise and focus on acting only after a clear trend emerges following the major event.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Bentradegold
Nasdaq Bounce or Break? 21340 Becomes the BattlegroundNasdaq futures may have seen an ugly decline following the Fed’s rate decision but it’s noteworthy the price remained respectful of technical levels, bouncing off 21340.75 at the height of the carnage. It’s far too early to call a bottom, especially with momentum indicators mixed: MACD has crossed over from above, generating a bearish signal, but the long-running uptrend in RSI (14) remains intact. Therefore, rather than trying to anticipate directional risks based on thin volumes going through in Asian trade, I’d much rather see how the price action evolves into Europe and US. If the price tests and holds again 21340.75, longs could be established above the level with a stop beneath for protection. Apart from a minor level at 21608, there’s little visual resistance until the record highs. Alternatively, if the price breaks 21340.75 and cannot reverse back higher, you could flip the setup around, selling beneath the level with a stop above for protection. 20984 and important 50-day moving average are nearby levels of note, with a break of the latter opening the possibility of a deeper flush towards 20400. More broadly, for the carnage witnessed following the Fed, its updated rate projections were not significantly different to what traders were anticipating before the event. And when you step back and look at where markets see the funds rate bottoming this cycle, it’s around 70bps higher than where the Fed’s dot plot indicated. What the Fed signalled was a slower pace of cuts, not a large reduction in cuts. One 25bps move was removed from the profile by the end of 2027. That’s it. Based on the market reaction, you’d think multiple cuts were removed! That makes me think the move was more about market positioning rather than a truly monumental hawkish shift, making me question how long the rout can be sustained when that reality sets in.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by FOREXcom
Price still mitigating the July FOMC as I suspectedPrice is still on its way to mitigate the July FOMC level as I suspected a while back. I just got caught up in the short term and forgot about that prior post I made as a likely target. I was wondering why the July FOMC level hasn't been retested lately as the September FOMC level bounced off. It seems to be repeating the December 23 FOMC level where it makes a suspension above the level before coming back down. Now, I will be closing watching the July FOMC level and if price will come to the tick to it before another rally. The arrows marks every time the market dumps down to a previous FOMC level only to halt mere ticks from it without breaching. If the July FOMC level is to not be breached, then it too should dump down into it by mere ticks. I am still bullish on the Dow and am not going to fall for the manipulation. I will expect that low to be taken and articles mentioning extreme bearishness and another crash. This will be about the time the market forms the low and rallies back up to 46,000
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
$XAGUSD 1H Chart: Bullish Shark Pattern with Target at $31.22PEPPERSTONE:XAGUSD Silver has formed the bullish shark pattern previously anticipated at $30.41. The pattern is now complete, and we saw a pullback below this level to $30.13, establishing a new support. The bullish shark pattern formed at $30.40 has a default target at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level, which is projected at $31.22. Bullish shark pattern formed at $30.41. Price pulled back to $30.13, establishing new support. Target level for the pattern: $31.22.
FX_IDC:XAGUSDLong
by Andre_Cardoso
NQ1 Futures: Targeting Liquidity Zones After FVG FillIdea Overview: The market has completed a Fair Value Gap (FVG) fill on the 4-hour chart, signaling a potential opportunity to go long, aligned with the primary bullish trend on the daily timeframe. Our strategy focuses on targeting the previous resistance level as the initial objective, followed by a slightly higher zone where future liquidity may reside before a potential trend reversal. Strategy Details: Primary Trend: The daily timeframe confirms a bullish trend, supporting long positions. Fair Value Gap (FVG): The 4-hour FVG provides an optimal entry zone, pending momentum confirmation. Initial Target: The nearest prior resistance level is identified as the first take-profit area. Extended Target: A liquidity-rich zone slightly above the resistance, anticipating price action to absorb liquidity before any significant reversal. Key Notes: Momentum Confirmation: Wait for clear momentum signals before entering. Risk Management: Place stop-losses strategically below the FVG zone or recent swing lows. Confluence: Monitor volume and market sentiment for additional validation. Let’s discuss this idea and refine it further together—share your insights below!
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Lordemerson
Crude Oil is looking to clear it's nearest inefficient rangeKeeping it simple we can view this as a lower high > lower low sequence as the high we approached a few days ago was never broken. Clear inefficiency below should be the only range that will hold price up but my eyes are on the lowest daily orderblock at the extreme range retracement. Hourly view shows more detail with support levels being extremely disrespected denoting how sellers have been lurking in the wind. Volume profile also shows super bearish volume in these levels with a small support node below the range.
FX:USOILShort
by HollywooodTrades
Gold - Prepare For A Devastating Drop!Gold ( TVC:GOLD ) will create a massive correction: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Gold rallied more than +70% over the past couple of months, basically without showing any real correction. Therefore it is no surprise that after retesting the channel resistance, Gold is now showing some weakness. It is quite likely that this is just the beginning of a significant drop. Levels to watch: $2.000 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:GOLDShort
by basictradingtv
8
GOLDThe gold price dropped today due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish cut, which sent investors seeking safety into the US Dollar, outpacing demand for gold. As a result, gold fell towards $2,600 and below.. This move was anticipated, as the market had priced in a hawkish cut, and the focus is now on the Fed's expectations for 2025, which suggest fewer interest rate cuts. The drop in gold price is also attributed to the strengthening US Dollar, which is trading near its weekly highs against most major rivals. Additionally, the technical indicators are neutral-to-bearish, developing around their midlines and failing to provide clear directional clues. On dxy rally AUDUSD,USDJPY,EURUSD,USDCAD,GBPUSD will have a change in directional clues
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Shavyfxhub
Bitcoin Futures Confirming 3 Drives of Bearish Divergence In the recent analysis of futures on the daily timeframe, a technical pattern known as the "3 Drives of Divergence" has been confirmed, signaling a potential trend reversal. This pattern, often associated with strong bearish momentum, has been observed with a divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), further supporting the bearish outlook. RSI Divergence: The RSI, a momentum oscillator, shows a bearish divergence where the price makes higher highs, but the RSI makes lower highs. This is a classic sign of weakening upward momentum, often preceding a price decline. Key Levels: Reversal Pivot: If the price closes below 97K on a daily timeframe. This pivot is critical as it is the last resistance before a potential downtrend. Target Futures Gap Fill: Historical price action suggests a gap in the futures market that might get filled. This target zone, marked on the chart, could act as a price magnet for Bitcoin if bearish pressures continue.
CME:BTC1!Short
by RSI_Trading_Concepts