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Top 5 Weekly Trade Ideas #4 - VX BreakoutLooks like the market is preparing for some volatility heading into FOMC, which is not something not we've been seeing as of late. We could be due for a sharp correction if this continues, but of course it could also just be some hedging and might not amount to anything. Pretty good looking chart, nice bounce off the low at 15.80, but for now it is still in the range from 15.80 - 16.80. Given the inverse H&S + channel break and bounce at 15.80 I'd expect more upside in the short term, but it has to clear 16.80 first. If it does and keeps going, look out below on ES.
CBOE:VX1!Long
by AdvancedPlays
Silver XAG/USD Bearish FlagThe XAG/USD pair on the M30 timeframe presents a potential selling opportunity due to a recent downward breakout from a well-defined Flag pattern. This suggests a shift in momentum towards the downside in the coming Hours. Key Points: Sell Entry: Consider entering a short position around close to the breakout level. This offers an entry point near the perceived shift in momentum. Target Levels: 1st Support – 30.11 2nd Support – 29.86 Your likes and comments are incredibly motivating and will encourage me to share more analysis with you. Best Regards, KABHI FOREX TRADING Thank you.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by KABHI_TA_TRADING
10
XAUUSD - sells in play?Here is our in-depth view and update on XAUUSD . Potential opportunities and what to look out for. This is a long-term overview on the pair updated from the previous one. Last time, we took a step back and took a look at XAUUSD from a bigger perspective (H4 time-frame). We are still using H4 to show you the sells we have in play. XAUUSD is currently trading at around 2670s . If you remember our previous long-term view on OANDA:XAUUSD you should remember that after hitting the top of the area at around 2714 (a bit higher) we were automatically looking for sells. We are currently holding a few sell positions at 2680s as the price failed to break higher. Personal opinion: The direction for now is bearish in our opinion. We are looking for sells and we do believe gold could see some massive sell-offs in December before the year of 2024 ends. KEY NOTES - XAUUSD completed the predicted long-term move to the upside. - XAUUSD sells were called at the top of the area (2714). - XAUUSD failed to break higher and is following the long-term analysis. Happy trading! FxPocket
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by FxPocket
3
Trading is a Game of Probability------For SMC TradersFocus on Risk Management and High-Probability Setups Trading is fundamentally a game of probabilities, which means you should take risks that align with your capital and personal risk tolerance. There is no "holy grail" strategy in trading. Instead, you need to think from both sides of the equation: start by assessing the risk you’re taking on in a trade rather than focusing on potential profits. When you prioritize managing risk, profits will follow naturally. One of the most common mistakes traders make is to focus solely on profits. They imagine the rewards but fail to account for the risks involved. Trading success comes from understanding and managing the probabilities on both sides—risk and reward. The Foundation of Trading: Risk Management 1.Control Risk Per Trade Self-Funded Accounts: Limit risk to 1%-2% of your account balance per trade. Funded Accounts: Limit risk to 0.25%-1% of your account balance per trade. 2. Adjust Stop Loss Dynamically to Protect Capital When the trade moves in your favor, focus first on securing your stop loss. Once the market breaks a recent high or low, move your stop loss to breakeven. Avoid chasing extreme risk-reward ratios like 1:30 or 1:50, which are often overhyped on social media. In reality, a 1:5 to 1:10 risk-reward ratio is excellent and more realistic. Rather than aiming for exaggerated profits, concentrate on protecting your capital and waiting for high-probability entries. Discipline and Patience: The Keys to Consistent Success Avoid Emotional Trading Emotional trading is a major obstacle to profitability. To succeed, you must remain emotionless and stick to your plan. Only take trades at high-probability Points of Interest (POI) and avoid impulsive entries. Be Patient and Wait for the Right Setup Patience is a vital part of trading. The market doesn’t always offer high-quality opportunities, so it’s crucial to wait for everything to align with your trading plan before entering a trade. Key Takeaways Risk per trade for self-funded accounts: 1%-2% Risk per trade for funded accounts: 0.25%-1% Focus on high-probability trading setups and always protect your capital by adjusting your stop loss. Aim for realistic risk-reward ratios (e.g., 1:5 to 1:10) rather than chasing extreme and impractical goals. Discipline and patience are the foundations of long-term trading success. Remember, trading is a long-term game of probabilities. Protect your capital, trade rationally, and patiently wait for high-probability opportunities to achieve consistent profitability.
ICMARKETS:XAUUSDLong
by Smart-Trader-KIMMM
Trade Idea Setting Up Into Support Santa Rally I am positioning myself to take part in the year-end rally and the December 18th FOMC. I can smell another 8% rally coming. I will see how price gets into the support zone and when it starts holding, I will get in. The stacked highs are the target. The triple top over 45,000. I have a feeling the market will close 2024 over the 45,000 level for headlines. The two biggest clues for this trade Idea is the peak formation low and the creeping trend. Creeping trends are used as order flow for the reversal back up. Once all the shorts start covering, a squeeze happens. What I am looking for is the creeping trend's capitulation into support. There is probably 2000 ticks of upside potential here.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Long
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
7
GOLD/XAUUSD UPDATED LONGTERM VIEWHello traders, we might see a 3000 per ounce of GOLD/XAUUSD end of year or next year. This is not a financial advice, I see on Weekly candle only but the chart is on lower timeframe. WE wait below the zone. those previous idea still valid. if you can wait we wait the zone for LONGS. This is only my view. Lets see how this idea plays. For more Longterm views on FOREX, CRYPTOS or other Currency follow for more. youre here for free see it for yourself. Thank you for some people still following me even thou Im not totally active on posting on charts. Im focus on Longterm view. ciao......
TVC:GOLDLong
by D1GITALTRADES
Smart Gold Trading Strategy: Catching the Next Big Move! Hello, traders! 👋✨ Welcome to a new market analysis. Today, we’re diving into a trade on gold (XAU/USD) on the 1-hour chart. 🚀 This precious metal continues to provide great opportunities, and this time is no different. I’ve decided to go long at the 2670 level, and here are the details of my strategy: - Entry (Long): 2670 - Take Profit (TP): 2734 - Stop Loss (SL): 2606 This trade is supported by technical analysis. The price appears to be holding a key support level, and indicators are signaling potential for an upward move. The stop-loss is set at 2606 to protect against unexpected reversals, while the take-profit target at 2734 aligns with a strong resistance zone. The risk-to-reward ratio here looks very promising. 📈 While my target is set, I’m always ready to adjust. If I see an opportunity to take profits earlier, I won’t hesitate to act. Staying flexible is key in trading! 📊🚀 What do you think of this setup? Are you trading gold this week? Let me know in the comments, and don’t forget to like and subscribe for more trading insights! 🔥 Disclaimer: This content is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk and consult a professional before making investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by MetalsMine
Gold Wave Analysis 18 December 2024 - Gold under bearish pressure - Likely to fall to support level 2555.00 Gold under the bearish pressure after the earlier breakout of the key support level 2617,00 (which is the lower border of the sideways price range inside which the price has been trading from November). The breakout of the support level 2617,00 stopped the earlier impulse wave 3 of the higher order impulse wave (5) from last month. Gold can be expected to fall further to the next support level 2555.00 (which stopped the earlier medium-term correction (4) in November).
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by FxProGlobal
Where May Equity Markets Finish For 2024?As we are approaching year end, this is a great time as a trader to go back and see how different markets performed relative to the positions you had throughout the year. Many different sectors had excellent performances this year such as the precious metals complex, with Gold hitting all time high levels, and the crypto market led by Bitcoin. With that said, the ES contract has hit a new all time high this year and is trading right near the $6,000 level which was first achieved this year. Traders often reference the “Santa Clause Rally” referring to a move higher in markets to finish out the year on a high note. With the year winding down, there are only a few more trading days along with some important economic data that will have an impact on how prices settle for the end of the year. Also, with the selling pressure seen today across several markets, there would need to be a catalyst to send prices back near all time highs. Looking ahead to next year, there is still a lot of uncertainty about the markets based on tensions in the Middle East, a new presidential cycle starting in January, and the Fed’s plans for rate cuts or pauses for 2025. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs tradingview.com/cme/ *CME Group futures are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of loss. Copyright © 2023 CME Group Inc. **All examples in this report are hypothetical interpretations of situations and are used for explanation purposes only. The views in this report reflect solely those of the author and not necessarily those of CME Group or its affiliated institutions. This report and the information herein should not be considered investment advice or the results of actual market experience.
CME_MINI:ESZ2024
by CME_Group
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr dax futures - Neutral. Big up, big down, big confusion. Can the selling continue and accelerate? Yes. Can we also see a bigger bounce from 20000? Also yes. Not as easy to trade as you might think because bounces can be big and you have to trade really small. Huge volatility is not the time to swing for the fences. 19802 is the next target for bears (breakout retest) and chances are good that we get there. 20000 is a very important number and that is why the path leading down to 19800 could be choppier than your account is comfortable with. comment : Bull trend is likely over and I will give my bigger outlook on the next weekly update. US session closed it around 20000 and that price is the obvious magnet. 1h close below brings 19800 in play but it’s also possible that we bounce from here. Selling was strong enough that the best bulls can get over the next days is some sideways movement. Don’t short the hole. We have quad witching this week and markets can always do a huge pullback. current market cycle: bull trend is very likely over - expecting more sideways until end of 2024 before the real selling can begin key levels: 19800 - 20400 bull case: Bulls could be running for the exits to secure the profits. It’s hard to tell in quad witching weeks because prices tend to get distorted. In any case the upside will very likely be limited now. Best bulls can hope for tomorrow is sideways around 20000. Any bounce above 20200 would surprise me. Invalidation is below 19800. bear case: Huge day for the bears and they want to accelerate this down to trap many late bulls. 19800 is the breakout retest and their next target. If we drop below, this could get really nasty. 19600 is close to the big bull trend line and other markets have already broken theirs, so it could happen this week. If you still have long positions, I would not hope for a huge year end rally and just get out. Invalidation is above 20400. short term: Neutral around 20000. Bears need follow through down to 19800 and they can get it but always remember, markets can have huge pullbacks and huge volatility comes with big risk, so trade small. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Choppy EU session and it closed near the open. FOMC totally changed the markets and now it comes down to tomorrow’s follow through by the bears. No trade of the day. You could not have known what Jpow says and how markets react. Don’t fool yourself.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
2024-12-18 - priceactiontds - daily update - sp500Good Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr sp500 e-mini futures - Neutral. Selling was too strong to be just a pullback in this bull trend. Best guess is that the trend is over and we are in a huge two-legged correction down to 5800 or lower. 5927 was the low from my W2 and we can expect sideways to up around this price. The lower bull wedge trend line should get a retest. comment : Bull trend is over. We are likely in a trading range the next weeks until we begin a new bigger bear trend. Bulls can still make a higher but it has gotten very unlikely after today’s selling. Huge follow-through would be down to 5800 but that’s a bit much for now. A bounce could retest the lower bull wedge line around 6000-6050, depending on when we get there, if we get there. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 5800 - 6050 bull case: Bulls might be running for the exits. Very interesting day tomorrow if bears can close another one below 6000 or if we trade back up. I would only take longs on very strong momentum. First target for bulls is 6000 and then 6050ish. Invalidation is below 5800. bear case: Bears with a huge surprise bar, changing the market character and ending this rally. Now their target is to keep the market below 6000 and then they have a chance of selling down to 5800. It is still somewhat unlikely to see bigger follow-through selling during these weeks of the year but it could happen. Right now it’s best to be flat and wait if bears want more blood. Invalidation is above 6100. short term: Neutral. Only small scalps for me to either direction. Can have bigger swings going into Opex on Friday. Expecting a bigger bounce going into the last 2 weeks of December and then much bigger selling in Q1 2025. medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Nothing. Don’t gamble FOMC or other news releases.
CME_MINI:MES1!
by priceactiontds
VX hit 20VX: Daily: -broke a downtrend in momentum Weekly: (will publish separately) -hit the uptrend line and bounced away ES: breaking down YM: breaking down NQ: also large candle though support PA and rsi not broken yet it would be nice to get a bounce in the indices and pullback in the vx, but thats hard to tell with so many trend violations today. could see bounce, or just sideways hold before the next drop Notes: --yield curve no longer inverted; reverted this week --there have been a few one-day-wonder pulbacks in the market lately with a MM revival the following day; this feels different...
CBOE:VX1!Long
by Lingamfelter
GOLD Consolidation Ahead of Key Fed DecisionGold Technical Analysis Gold continues to consolidate between 2,638 and 2,653, awaiting a breakout. Currently, the price may attempt to test 2,638, and a 4-hour candle close below this level would confirm a bearish trend, with a target of 2,623. Conversely, stability above 2,653 would support a bullish move, with a potential target of 2,665. Today's Fed rate decision will significantly impact the market. A 0.25% rate cut would likely have a bullish effect. However, the key focus will be on Powell's remarks during the meeting—if he signals further rate cuts in the next meeting, this could strongly support a bullish trend. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2645 Resistance Levels: 2653, 2665, 2678 Support Levels: 2635, 2623, 2612 Bearish Momentum: Below 2,638 Bullish Momentum: Above 2,653
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi