Futures market
Gold Setup: Reject → Engulf → Drop🧠 Trade Breakdown:
Gold dropped hard, forming a clean 15M supply zone (3,330–3,327.50) and leaving behind a juicy imbalance at 3,207. Price has tapped back into the zone, but I’m not pulling the trigger yet — I’m waiting on a clear rejection followed by a bearish engulfing candle after the rejection.
📍 Key Confluences:
• 15M supply zone: 3,330–3,327.50
• Imbalance left behind at 3,207
• Price tapped zone + early signs of rejection
• Entry only after bearish engulfing confirms the move
• Bearish structure lining up with lower high formation
📉 Trade Setup Plan:
• Step 1: Let price reject the zone
• Step 2: Wait for bearish engulfing candle after rejection
• Step 3: Enter on engulfing candle close or slight retest
• SL: Above 3,331
• TP1: 3,318
• TP2: 3,310
• TP3: 3,207 (imbalance fill)
🧠 Mindset Check:
This is Gold — it moves fast, but I move smarter. No engulfing = no entry. Let it prove itself.
Trade simple. Live lavish. — QuilLavish
Start going long on goldAlthough gold is under pressure and weak at present, gold still rebounded near 3295 under the influence of yesterday's major negative news, proving that there is still a large amount of buying funds below, limiting the retracement space of gold; and from 3295 to 3335, there is still a rebound space of $40, proving that gold is not extremely weak. Moreover, there is a gap left above, and there is a technical need to rebound to fill the gap;
In addition, yesterday gold fell sharply due to news, and there should be many longs trapped in the market. If gold is relatively stable, there may be self-rescue behavior of the trapped longs, so gold longs still have the opportunity to rebound to 3340-3350. At present, the main focus is on the short-term support area of 3315-3305, and we can moderately consider going long on gold in this area.
Gold Rebounds Slightly After Dropping to 3295📊 Market Update:
Gold bounced back to 3320 after dipping to 3295 amid USD strength and rising bond yields. The recovery was fueled by short-covering, but traders remain cautious ahead of upcoming U.S. PCE data – the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
📉 Technical Analysis:
• Key Resistance: 3330
• Nearest Support: 3295
• EMA: Price is hovering near the 09 EMA on the H1 chart → neutral to slightly bullish in short-term correction.
• Candle / Volume / Momentum: H1 candles show mild recovery with increased volume, but no clear reversal signal yet.
📌 Outlook:
Gold may range between 3295 and 3330 before a breakout, depending on incoming U.S. economic data. A break above 3330 could trigger a short-term rally.
Gold fluctuates sharply, both bulls and bears have opportunities
💡Message Strategy
1. The decline in gold prices is directly due to the cooling of market risk aversion caused by the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset has weakened. The ceasefire agreement is fragile. Israel and Iran have accused each other of default. Trump criticized both sides. Its sustainability is questionable, adding uncertainty to the gold market.
2. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified at a congressional hearing on June 24 that it is necessary to observe the impact of tariffs on inflation before cutting interest rates. He is not in a hurry to cut interest rates, which has cooled expectations for a rate cut in July. Gold, as a non-interest-bearing asset, is under pressure under high interest rate expectations. The uncertainty of inflation caused by tariffs also limits the attractiveness of gold as an inflation hedging tool.
3. The U.S. Consumer Confidence Index fell to 93.0 in June. Consumers are worried about employment and economic prospects. Although the one-year inflation expectations have fallen, the expectations for rising interest rates have risen, which has weakened the safe-haven demand for gold. In the long run, gold's anti-inflation and safe-haven properties are still there. Global economic uncertainty and a weaker dollar may rekindle demand for gold. Investors need to pay attention to the Fed's policies and the situation in the Middle East and seize the opportunity to allocate.
📊Technical aspects
1. The weekly level switches space around the 10-day moving average. This week has not yet closed, so there is no final conclusion. You can keep it in mind first.
2. The daily line lost the lifeline support area that has been held for a month. The top and bottom are converted to each other. The lifeline position 3355 becomes the resistance range. However, please note that the pattern is closing, which means that the switching space is not the direction. The opening and volume must be opened to guide the direction.
Note that two points are also contradictory points. One is the lifeline 3355 switching space, and the other is that the pattern further closes and accumulates momentum, waiting for the opening to guide the real direction.
3. Five consecutive negatives in four hours, a drop of more than 100 US dollars from 3396 to 3295, and then began to rebound from a low position. This is very embarrassing. If it is a trend, there will be no consecutive positives. action, and will not linger for so long
Then there is only one explanation left, or sweep, pay attention to the lifeline position 3350, the double-line upper rail position 3364, together become the pressure line position of the partial sweep method
There can be a rise in leverage, but it cannot be a breakthrough of continuous rise or steady rise, otherwise the nature will change again
4. The double lines of the hourly chart are close and superimposed in the 3350-3355 area, which coincides with the four-hour lifeline. At the same time, this is also the last rebound to determine the resistance area yesterday afternoon, so as to change the nature
5. The large channel cooperates with the small channel interval. After breaking through yesterday, it further fell in volume. Now the position along the large channel is in the 3340 area. This will be the acceleration point today. Breaking through accelerates the rise, and breaking through accelerates the fall
💰Strategy Package
Short Position:3345-3355,SL:3365,Target: 3300-3290
Long Position:3280-3290,SL:3265,Target: 3340
Gold - This is the official top!Gold - TVC:GOLD - might top out soon:
(click chart above to see the in depth analysis👆🏻)
Since Gold confirmed its rounding bottom in 2019 it rallied more than +200%. Especially the recent push higher has been quite aggressive, squeezing all bears. But now Gold is somehow unable to create new all time highs, which could constitute the a top formation.
Levels to watch: $3.500, $3.000
Keep your long term vision🙏🙏
Philip (BasicTrading)
SPX Bullish Breakout: 18% Upside to $7,300The S&P 500 has broken out of an inverse head and shoulders formation, targeting approximately $7,300 within three months. The MACD shows strong bullish momentum with a recent crossover above the signal line. The price is holding above the 21-day EMA, further confirming bullish momentum.
Bearish direction remains unchanged, wait patiently
Since the sharp drop in gold last Monday (June 16), except for the correction of closing the cross positive line last Tuesday, the daily level has closed five consecutive negative lines since last Wednesday until now, fully demonstrating the weak characteristics of gold prices in recent trading.
From the technical indicators, the 5-day moving average and the 10-day moving average have formed a dead cross, which is an important signal of the weakening of the short-term market trend. The current gold price continues to run below these two moving averages, further verifying the current market situation where the shorts dominate. There is still no big fluctuation in the intraday, short positions are patiently waiting, and the operation still maintains our target of 3310-3305 unchanged.
GOLD: Local Bullish Bias! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 3,314.13 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 3,322.84 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
GOLD My Opinion! BUY!
My dear followers,
I analysed this chart on GOLD and concluded the following:
The market is trading on 3313.7 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 3321.8
Safe Stop Loss - 3309.7
About Used Indicators:
A super-trend indicator is plotted on either above or below the closing price to signal a buy or sell. The indicator changes color, based on whether or not you should be buying. If the super-trend indicator moves below the closing price, the indicator turns green, and it signals an entry point or points to buy.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD) 4-Hour Chart Analysis4-hour chart from OANDA shows the recent performance of Gold Spot priced in U.S. Dollars (XAU/USD), with the current price at $3,313.650, reflecting a decrease of $9.800 (-0.29%). The chart highlights a recent upward trend followed by a pullback, with a support zone around $3,301.186 to $3,313.650 and a resistance level near $3,380.030. The inset provides a zoomed-in view of the price action, indicating potential volatility with a lightning bolt symbol and U.S. flags, suggesting significant market movements or news
Eyes on Powell testimony H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the falling wedge pattern on H1 & H4 now market is range of 3290-3335 structural support.
What's possible scanarios we have?
As we have seen market rejected multiple times today at 3335 and still on downside.
if H4 remains belo6 3330-3335 then keep your eyes at 3305 then 3290 milestone.
On the otherhand if The H4 candle closes above 3335 buyying will be rapture and market will tap the Volume Gap at 3365 then 3380.
Additional TIP:
Above 3335 keep buy
Below 3325 keep sell
#XAUUSD
Still on Falling wedge channel H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the falling wedge pattern on H1 & H4 now market is range of 3290-3335 structural support.
What's possible scanarios we have?
As we have seen market rejected multiple times today at 3335 and still on downside.
if H4 remains belo6 3330-3335 then keep your eyes at 3305 then 3290 milestone.
On the otherhand if The H4 candle closes above 3335 buyying will be rapture and market will tap the Volume Gap at 3365 then 3380.
Additional TIP:
Above 3335 keep buy
Below 3325 keep sell
#XAUUSD
Extra, pre market — June 25, 2025Global financial markets mounted a broad-based relief rally as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased significantly following a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. The U.S.-brokered truce, while fragile, has triggered a visible return to risk appetite across equity, fixed income, and currency markets. U.S. President Donald Trump, despite playing a central role in halting the conflict, publicly rebuked both Israel and Iran for violations, urging Israel via Truth Social to “BRING YOUR PILOTS HOME, NOW!” This unusual stance appears to have stabilized sentiment across asset classes, at least for now.
U.S. equity markets responded favorably to the geopolitical de-escalation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by +507.24 points (+1.2%) to close at 43,089.02, while the Nasdaq 100 added +334.19 points (+1.5%) to end at 22,190.52. The S&P 500 rose +67.01 points (+1.1%), settling at 6,092.18 (Screenshot_1.png). The Russell 2000 also climbed +1.1%, driven by renewed confidence in domestic cyclicals. Volatility sharply dropped, with the CBOE VIX Index falling -11.9% to 17.48, indicating a lower perceived risk premium.
Sector rotation was pronounced. Technology (XLK) led with a +1.8% gain to $247.24, closely followed by Financials (XLF) at +1.5%, and Communications (XLC) at +1.3%. In contrast, Energy (XLE) sank -1.3% to $84.91, weighed down by falling oil prices, and Consumer Staples (XLP) edged down slightly by -0.1% (Screenshot_1.png). Investors appeared to rotate out of defensive sectors into higher-beta growth plays, signaling a risk-on tone.
The sector divergence was matched by style factor dispersion. On a relative basis, Private Equity (PSP/SPY) outperformed all other factors with a +1.2% daily move, followed by IPOs (IPO/SPY) at +0.9% and Hedge Funds (GURU/SPY) at +0.6% (Screenshot_6.png). Among equity styles, Small-Cap Growth (IJT/SPY) posted a +0.6% relative return, while Value (IVE/SPY) and Low Volatility (USMV/SPY) underperformed at -0.3% and -0.6% respectively. This points to growing investor confidence in higher-risk, higher-reward assets, likely fueled by reduced macro stress.
The relief was also evident in global bond markets. U.S. Treasury yields declined modestly as demand for duration returned. The 10-year yield (US10Y) closed at 4.298%, down from earlier June highs, while the 2-year (US2Y) yield dropped to 3.797% (Screenshot_5.png). European yields followed suit: Germany’s 10Y Bund yield dropped to 2.144%, and the UK Gilt yield hovered at 4.475%. Notably, Japanese 10Y yields have increased to 1.404%, up 22.88% YTD, signaling shifting monetary dynamics in Asia.
Credit markets remained resilient. On a year-to-date basis, Local Emerging Market Bonds (EMLC) are outperforming with an 11.3% return, followed by USD Emerging Market Debt (EMB +6.9%), and Convertibles (CWB +5.2%). U.S. Corporate bonds continued to benefit from carry and spread compression, with High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) both showing solid inflows and positive performance (Screenshot_4.png). Fixed income appears to be balancing carry with renewed duration appeal amid easing geopolitical risk and softer Fed expectations.
Commodities, particularly energy, experienced sharp reversals. WTI Crude Oil (CL1) and Brent Crude (CO1) fell 6.0% and 6.1% respectively, closing at $64.37 and $67.14 (Screenshot_7.png). This move reflects the de-escalation in the Strait of Hormuz risk and was compounded by Trump's call to "DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!"—signaling a political push for increased U.S. production. Gold, meanwhile, retreated slightly to $3,328.22 (-0.1%), though remains up 28.4% YTD, having benefited from haven flows during the height of the conflict. Silver saw a similar retreat to $35.74 (-0.5%), though retains a +23.6% YTD gain.
In foreign exchange, the U.S. dollar weakened across major pairs as safe-haven demand declined. The EUR/USD rose to 1.1606 (+8.5% YTD), while the GBP/USD reached 1.3612 (+7.6% YTD). In contrast, the USD/JPY fell to 145.75, marking a -8.7% YTD decline (Screenshot_10.png). The reversal in dollar strength aligns with broader global reflation trades and a moderation in Fed hawkishness, supported by Chair Powell’s comments that the U.S. economy remains “solid” and that tariff impacts may be more muted than feared.
On a global equity level, YTD returns tell a diverse story. Latin America continues to dominate, with Argentina (ARGT +54.2%), Brazil (EWZ +22.6%), and Mexico (EWW +22.0%) leading gains (Screenshot_9.png). Among developed markets, Canada (EWC +27.5%) and Germany (EWG +18.7%) outshine, whereas Turkey (TUR -25.2%) and India (PIN -0.75%) lag meaningfully. In Asia, South Korea (EWY +14.8%) and Taiwan (EWT +13.6%) saw notable performance, bolstered by strength in tech exports and domestic policy easing.
Looking ahead, the sustainability of this rally depends on several unresolved variables. First, the Middle East ceasefire, while currently holding, is inherently fragile. Any renewed hostilities could spike volatility and reverse energy price trends rapidly. Second, the Fed remains in a delicate position. Markets are currently pricing in a prolonged pause, but Trump’s pressure on the central bank and shifting economic data could alter expectations quickly. Finally, watch for China’s re-entry into Iranian oil markets following Trump’s announcement that Beijing “can now continue to purchase oil from Iran.” This move could reignite trade friction or trigger secondary sanctions, especially if EU or U.S. energy security concerns are heightened.
In conclusion, the combination of geopolitical relief, Fed ambiguity, and a rotation into riskier assets has created a fertile environment for short-term bullish momentum. However, macro fragility persists. Investors should remain tactically optimistic but structurally cautious, especially in sectors sensitive to energy prices and interest rates. Keeping a diversified allocation across risk assets, commodities, and high-quality fixed income remains advisable in this unpredictable macro regime.