Futures market
WTI breakout coming ? WTI has had a relatively range-bound year. Thinking back to what I said at the beginning of the year, that was what I predicted. I have drawn the vertical lines to show this year's range, and for me, this indicates a sell-the-rally mode that traders have adopted. You can see the triangle that has been forming over the past few years will break out soon. I prefer the downside break but just in case the opposite happens I have drawn the boxes of support and resistance I have observed. I have shown the chart for the 2008-2024 period because it gives a great perspective.
Daily Analysis of Gold Ounce to USD – Issue 172The analyst believes that the price of { XAUUSD } will decrease in the next 24 hours. This prediction is based on quantitative analysis of the price trend.
Please note that the specified take-profit level does not imply a prediction that the price will reach that point. In this framework of analysis and trading, unlike the stop-loss, which is mandatory, setting a take-profit level is optional. Whether the price reaches the take-profit level or not is of no significance, as the results are calculated based on the start and end times. The take-profit level merely indicates the potential maximum price fluctuation within that time frame.
COCOA overbought, high demand, low supply, but overboughtHi guys, we are going to take a look at a short term correction on the Cocoa, hence it has reacehed very high level in the RSI area, and it is very overbought. Keep in mind that this commodity is very volatile so treat with caution and be careful with your risk management!
Entry: 12,650
Target: 12,039
Stop: 13,080
As always my friends happy trading!
P.S. If you have questions or inquiries about one of my existing set-ups or personal questions / 1 on 1 sessions consider joining my channel so you can follow up with me in private!
WTI - Short Setting UpWTI - Is almost at my sell zone.
Once we hit the sell zone, if we do, then I will be looking for price action and also for the buy orders to be fading out.
Nasdaq 2025 outlookAs we complete 2024 and the significant move we have experienced in the NQ this year, its time to have a look at the possible outcome for 2025. the ascending triangle suggests a topping pattern and as the Santa Claus rally completes and portfolio adjustments for year-end, I have to conclude that we will see a reasonable correction in January/February next year. I have drawn boxes to indicate my support and resistance areas. As we all have found out this year sentiment is a primary driver of markets but we are so extended and selling rallies is challenging. I don't believe in fighting the trend but look for a set-up that limits your risk, happy holidays and take care
XAUUSD Bullish Momentum Towards $2652The XAUUSD is currently at $2646
Looking for a 6pts Bullish Run towards $2652.
(Direction for LTF-Trades)
THE KOG REPORT - UpdateEnd of day update from us here at KOG:
We wanted that extension level 2645 for the long which gave us a nice early session move into the order region today. Excalibur activated short from there and we managed another short ending the day on Gold early due to the pre-event price action.
We're now bouncing support 2630 which needs to hold us up to target that higher order region again where we are expecting price to settle. FOMC tomorrow so please reduce lots and expect the range to start chopping.
As always, trade safe.
KOG
Crude Oil long term analysis⭕WTI has taken downward trend since (18Jul 24) , Because of industrial countries had bad data and concern about suffering recession the price gone down.
🔻In the another side OPEC+ decided increaseof their supply.
🔻China's data not promising, China is the biggest importer of Oil in the world so its pridectable to effect oil price.
🟢Middle east and tension of that has no end ,Analysts alarm to happening War and Geopolitical things limtied down trend of price.
🟢Fed's recently reduced intrest rate by 0.5 which is big move since years ago ,And they decided to cutting rate by 0.25 from other meetings it mean Soft Landing , in this case it will help to US Gov'
to improve the economic and WTI price mostly dependent to US economic so it will help to growth Oil price
🔵So many countries economics related together so if US ecnomy will recovery it self
China , Japan , Euro zone , Australia , Canada , ..... will betterment too so if the economics of countries better so productions and output will growth that causes import Oils and counsume.
✅In my idea 66$ to 63$ very big support area and good place to order Buy.
my expectation is WTI in 2025 will growth smoothly to our other targets.✔✔
💌pls add your idea too and let me know❗❓
XAUUSD - gold waiting for the Federal Reserve meeting!Gold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 1H time frame and is trading in its medium-term bearish channel. In the authentic failure of the support area, we can see the continuation of the gold decline and the demand zone. Within the zone of demand, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. If the resistance range is broken, you can sell in the supply zone.
The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting is scheduled for today. According to a recent report by Crédit Agricole, it is expected that during the December meeting, the interest rate will be reduced by 0.25%, bringing it to a range of 4.25-4.50%.
While this rate cut has largely been priced into the market, the Fed’s monetary statement may carry a hawkish tone. It is anticipated that the Federal Reserve will indicate slower rate cuts in 2025 due to resilient economic conditions and persistent inflation. Crédit Agricole predicts that Jerome Powell, the Fed Chair, will likely hint at pausing rate cuts early in 2025.
Additionally, recent employment and inflation data from November suggest that the Fed is in a position to implement this rate cut.
However, the risks associated with persistent inflation indicate that the rate-cutting cycle will progress more gradually. Crédit Agricole estimates that interest rate projections for 2025 could be revised to 3.625% and for 2026 to 3.125%. These figures represent reductions of 0.75% in 2025 and 0.5% in 2026, showing smaller decreases compared to earlier forecasts.
According to the Financial Times, Israeli negotiators have met with mediators in Doha to discuss a ceasefire with Hamas and the release of hostages from Gaza. These talks are taking place ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration in January. Both Israeli and U.S. officials remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement, though disagreements over key details persist.
The Israeli negotiating team arrived in Qatar on Monday, focusing on resolving major points of contention. It is expected that both sides will respond to a recent mediator proposal, which includes a six-to-eight-week ceasefire and the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners.
These discussions have intensified following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. elections. Steven Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East, has met with Benjamin Netanyahu and Qatar’s Prime Minister to advance the agreement.
Despite progress, significant challenges remain, including disagreements over the number of hostages to be freed and the presence of Israeli forces in Gaza. While Hamas has softened its stance somewhat, substantial differences still exist.
UBS, in its recent report, has projected that gold prices will reach $2,900 per ounce by the end of 2025. A key factor highlighted by UBS is the continued demand for gold from central banks, driven by the declining value of the dollar and diversification of reserves. UBS expects central bank gold purchases to remain strong throughout 2025, supporting elevated gold prices.
Moreover, investor demand for gold as a hedge against geopolitical and policy uncertainties will play a significant role in maintaining high gold prices. UBS points to ongoing concerns about the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Middle Eastern tensions, and uncertain fiscal and trade policies under the incoming administration of Donald Trump. These factors could boost investment in gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Lower interest rates and a weaker U.S. dollar are additional factors that could drive gold prices higher. UBS predicts that interest rate cuts will continue and the dollar will weaken further, which will bolster demand for gold.
In addition to gold, UBS has identified opportunities in copper and other transition metals. Global investments in power generation, energy storage, and electric transportation are expected to serve as long-term drivers of demand for these metals.
XAUUSD: Bearish Correction Expected After Wave ((4)) CompletionGold appears to be completing an Elliott Wave correction pattern
Wave ((4)) is forming a regular correction near $2665 level
Once Wave ((4)) is complete, expect Wave ((5)) to move towards $2600-$2590 area
Key invalidation level remains at $2699.91
Short positions can be considered after Wave ((4)) completion and momentum confirmation
Current price action suggests limited upside potential before bearish continuation
Keep in mind wave patterns can shift. Always use proper risk management and wait for clear confirmation before entering trades.
Stay cautious around key economic events and monitor dollar strength which could impact the expected move.
Gold / down trendThere was a nice LQ sweep from a swing high. Currently, an N3 is being built.
On the 1 and 4-hour chart, the trend has turned bearish.
There is potential for the price to move down to the recent swing low.
In the meantime, there should be reactions at the marked key price levels.
XAUUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION)hello my fellow traders, what do you think about this chart.
current price: 2648
currently gold is working under resistance level and is about to go high. after breaking out bearish parallel channel market is back to its bullish movement and is trying to break the resistance above. after rejecting 2632 buyers are strongly supporting gold and has taken market back to its bullish track. if market continue its current trend then its first target will 2665 then after small retracement its next target will be. 2675.
key points:
demand zones: 2665, 2675
supporting area: 2645, 2636
don't forget to like, comment and follow.
thanks for your precious time and support.
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) -Trading Plan Using Wkly and Dly Open PricesAnalysis:
Weekly Opening Price:
The price action has struggled to hold above the weekly open level (2,660.81), showing signs of weakness after a strong rally. This level now acts as a key resistance for buyers to reclaim.
Daily Opening Price:
The daily open at 2,649.01 is serving as a pivot point for today's session. A sustained move below this level indicates potential bearish continuation.
Trade Plan:
Entry Zone: Positioned near the daily open price rejection.
Stop-Loss: Placed above the key resistance area (blue zone).
Target: Aiming for the key support level at 2,580.00, aligning with previous significant structure.
Key Levels:
Resistance:
Weekly Open: 2,660.81
Next resistance: 2,666.12
Support:
2,622.89 (prior key daily level)
Final Target: 2,580.00
Notes:
If buyers fail to reclaim the weekly open, sellers could dominate with a target toward the 2,580 zone.
A clear break above the weekly open invalidates the setup.
XAUUSD IDEAThere is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market.
Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies
Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance.
Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2658, 2675
Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620
XAUUSD SELL Hi Traders
What are you Thing About GOLD
The Price will Showed in Sell Side
Resistance Zone 2655/60
Support Zone 2630/20
Lets Like and Share Your Idea.
GOLD → Ahead is the Fed and the rate decision. What to do?FX:XAUUSD tested strong support on Tuesday at 2633 before traders moved into a buying phase, hoping a possible rate cut would support their intentions
There is a 93% probability that the Fed may cut interest rates by 0.25%. But the thing to pay attention to here is the general backdrop - the Fed's stance. Hawkish hints about 2025 could have a much bigger impact than a rate cut, which is partially already factored in by the market.
Any hint of fewer rate cuts next year could be a growth driver for the dollar. Powell's comments play an important role in assessing the situation for next year against the backdrop of Trump's policies
Downside risks for gold are quite high due to the controversial situation in favor of the Fed's hawkish stance.
Technically, the emphasis is on the local channel. A price exit beyond 2658 or 2633 will be accompanied by a strong impulse.
Resistance levels: 2658, 2675
Support levels: 2645, 2633, 2620
The situation is very controversial and complicated, that's why several directions relative to the key zones are indicated on the chart.
Everything depends not only on the actual rate numbers, but also on the Fed comments, namely we are interested in the tone and stance for next year. Recommendation - skip trading before the event and wait until volatility decreases to be able to adequately perceive the market position
Regards R. Linda!
gold forming bearish#XAUUSD firstly today Is Fed rate, price expected maybe differ from what we are expecting. #Gold have been sideways since past hours which holds multiple breakout, now below 2645 holds bearish which will fall below 2639-2628, stop loss 2652.75, but if the H1 candle closes any longer candle on buy then possible reach is 2674 which holds sell retracment also.
Gold price analysis December 18Fundamental Analysis
Gold prices rose on an overnight rebound from the $2,633 area, or above a one-week low, and attracted some buyers during the Asian session on Wednesday. The rise may have been due to some repositioning ahead of key central bank event risks, although the upside is likely to remain limited as traders may opt to await the outcome of the crucial two-day FOMC policy meeting later today. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points and adopt a more cautious stance on future rate cuts.
Technical Analysis
As the previous analysis shows, gold prices are still in a downtrend until they close above 2690. 2664 is not seen as a key resistance zone at the moment. We have to wait until the 2673 and 2690 zones for the price to continue to be the focus zone of today for the main SELL strategies. The destination zone is 2633 and 2615 for the SELL strategies.
Trading price zone
BUY zone 2634-2632 Stoploss 2629
BUY zone 2616-2614 Stoploss 2611
SELL zone 2673-2675 Stoploss 2678
SELL zone 2691-2693 Stoploss 2696
XAU/USD Expected Last Long Swing trade of year 2024 in Spot Considering the completion of the corrective downside move in gold, we can expect two swing-long trades this month.
Make sure you follow your risk-reward ratio during placing these trades.
Trade no. 1 - Entry - 2636
SL - 2694
TP - 2790
Trade no. 2 - Entry - 2605
SL - 2694
TP - 2790
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however I advise placing Multiple Buy limit orders within a 15 or 30 minute timeframe. Entry from the most recent or closest low & high level should be in retest.
Stop Loss 🛑: Using the 4H period, the recent / nearest low level.
Goal 🎯: 75.500
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Take advantage of the target and get away 🎯 Swing Traders Please reserve the half amount of money and watch for the next dynamic level or order block breakout. Once it is resolved, we can go on to the next new target in our heist plan.
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DJI - Has the DJI finished its profit taking?The DJI completed a cup and handle formation and run up, completed full EW moves and traced back to the 150 SMA after a nice profit taking moves. Will the santa claus rally will move it back up or the bears are strong enough to break below?
XAU/USD Tradin Plan For TodayI will be looking at four potential scenarios for today's price movement. The price is currently consolidating near the middle of the range, with a previous day's high (PDH) around 2659 and a previous day's low (PDL) near 2633. Key levels to watch include the local highs and lows marked by the yellow zones.
Key Levels:
PDH (2659): Potential liquidity grab or breakout target for bullish scenarios.
PDL (2633): Major downside liquidity target if bearish pressure dominates.
Local Support Zone (around 2642): A key area for potential bounces or breakdowns.
Local Resistance Zone (around 2649): A significant level to watch for rejection or continuation.
Neutral Bias for now: The price is in a range with no clear directional dominance.
Watch for liquidity sweeps, market structure shifts (MSS), and confirmation signals before entering trades.
Scenarios to Watch:
1.Bullish Breakout (Green Scenario - Top Right):
Plan: If price sweeps local liquidity near 2649 and breaks structure to the upside, look for confirmation on a retest of the yellow zone.
Target: PDH at 2659 or higher.
Confirmation: Break of structure + bullish retest.
2.Bullish Reversal from Support (Green Scenario - Bottom Left):
Plan: If price drops to the 2642 support zone, wait for signs of accumulation (Wyckoff phases) and a structure shift upward.
Target: Local highs around 2649 or PDH at 2659.
Confirmation: Bullish structure shift + FVG retest.
3.Bearish Rejection (Red Scenario - Top Right):
Plan: If price taps into resistance at 2649 but fails to break higher, watch for a bearish structure shift (MSS).
Target: Local support at 2642 or PDL at 2633.
Confirmation: Bearish structure break + retest.
4.Bearish Breakdown (Red Scenario - Bottom Left):
Plan: If price breaks below 2642 support and confirms a bearish retest, expect continuation towards the PDL at 2633.
Target: PDL or lower.
Confirmation: Bearish retest of broken support.
Use M1 for precise entries after liquidity sweeps.
"Patience, precision, and discipline are key. Watch for structure shifts and enter with confidence. Trade safe!"
