Gold From a technical perspective, the overnight breakdown through the $3,260 resistance-turned-support and the subsequent slide below the $3,300 mark on Friday favors the XAU/USD bears. However, oscillators on the daily chart – though they have been losing traction – are yet to confirm the negative bias. This, in turn, warrants some caution before positioning for deeper losses and suggests that the Gold price could find some support near the $3,265-3,264 horizontal zone. Some follow-through selling, however, should pave the way for a fall towards the $3,223-3,222 intermediate support en route to last week's swing low, around the $3,200 neighborhood.
Futures market
CRUDE OIL Bullish Breakout! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL is making a bullish
Correction from the lows and
The price made a bullish
Breakout of the key horizontal
Level of 60.10$ then made a
Retest and a rebound so we
Are bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further bullish
Continuation on Monday
Buy!
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GOLD Trade Plan 08/05/2025Dear Traders,
after FOMC and After Powell's speech, we saw heavy fluctuations in gold. I expect the price to drop below the 3300 zone, which is a buying area, and from there, we could see a strong move toward the all-time high.
If you enjoyed this forecast, please show your support with a like and comment. Your feedback is what drives me to keep creating valuable content."
Regards,
Alireza
View on the short-term trend of gold!📌Fundamentals:
Gold prices fell sharply. After Trump announced a "breakthrough" trade deal with the UK, market expectations for more similar deals increased, weakening gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
📊Technological aspects:
Gold quickly fell in the Asian session and then quickly stretched back up. As of now, it has stood above 3320. So the possibility of gold falling again is relatively small. And there is a possibility that gold will further hit Thursday's high of 3360-70. If 3202 to 3435 is regarded as wave a, then 3438 to today's low of 3275 is wave b. So the current rebound from 3275 will go up in wave c. The first suppression position above is 3360-70, the high point of yesterday's rebound. At present, gold has stabilized above 3320, so the next bullish target for gold is to test 3360-70. After the pressure appears, follow the trend and go short.
Silver USM2 Projections: 2032As we see USM2 Expand along this exponential line we can project around $33 trillion USDM2 around 2032. Silver, which is currently undervalued relative to many assets may fall again against M2, or rise. It seems to have hit resistance currently. Here I have outlined three scenarios:
Red: Silver falls against M2, but is nominally higher by 2032 at $43 an ounce.
Orange: Silver meets resistance again along this line at $72 an ounce.
Green: Silver reaches 2011 resistance at $294 an ounce.
Projecting the 1980 peak onto 2032 M2 supply gives $1746.
Of course we may see any range in between here, but buying at $33 and it being worth $43 in 2032 still outperforms 4% compounding on cash by about 10%.
2025 is 1969? Downtrend to 26,000Just some observations but I can see NUMEROUS similarities between the two charts
There are 8 instances that are EXACTLY the same between the two. This is more than random chance.
1. Range
2. Yearly Open at top of the range before the spike down
3. 1962 and Covid Dump
4. Bullish grind
5. Bearish downtrend STOPPING right AT the top of the range box
6. Bullish retrace back to highs
7. Equal highs suspended above the top of the range box
8. Yearly Open at top of the sell off
9. Yearly downtrend selling off to hit EXACTLY the middle of the range box
Gold Weekly Summary and Forecast 5/10/2025As predicted last week, I did expect gold's bullish trend to continue when 3165 was tested. However, it didn't go as predicted but went straight up to 3430. With corrections in the last days of this week, gold still closed the week with a positive candle. I am expecting the bullish trend to continue next week.
I will look in smaller timeframes for intraday trading ideas. Next week it should test 3500 again. If 3500 is broken, my ultimate target for next week will be 3647.
Let's see how the market plays out next week.
USOIL: Expecting Bearish Movement! Here is Why:
The charts are full of distraction, disturbance and are a graveyard of fear and greed which shall not cloud our judgement on the current state of affairs in the USOIL pair price action which suggests a high likelihood of a coming move down.
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NQ 1W Following weeks before summerIn my opinion these are the key levels which we have to look at to determine short narrative. If we consider higher prices then I would prefer the grey fvg stay unfilled and retest the current weekly tail. After which we shall run up strongly through the imbalance and likely revisit 21k.
On the other hand if we anticipate slower growth or even consolidation, I would like to see these levels inverted for this case. Important to mention we ve got a large monthly candle tail which can be easily rebalanced to during the summer season when less volatility can appear, which will be seen in consolidation and further continuation later on
Gold will continue to grow and exit from pennantHello traders, I want share with you my opinion about Gold. After looking at this chart, we can see how the price of Gold has been developing inside an upward pennant, formed after a powerful impulse from the buyer zone. This earlier move created a strong bullish foundation, supported by consistent reactions from the support area, which has since become a key defensive level. After the breakout from the upper boundary of the previous ascending channel, the price entered a phase of consolidation. However, rather than fading, the price action has remained tightly squeezed between the support line and the resistance trendline, creating the structure of a classic pennant. This pattern usually signals continuation, especially when supported by strong preceding momentum, which is exactly what we’re seeing here. Currently, the price is hovering around the support line of the pennant and has already shown signs of bouncing back up. If this rebound continues, the next logical move is a breakout through the resistance line of the pennant, with the 3450 level as a target. It aligns perfectly with the upper boundary and represents a strong technical TP1. Please share this idea with your friends and click Boost 🚀
GOLD Possible bearish movesGOLD Weekly Outlook – Waiting for a Clean Entry
My focus this week on gold is based around the recent mitigation of the 3H supply zone. It was a clean setup, but unfortunately I didn’t get tapped in — and with it being late Friday, I decided to wait for a better entry, potentially on Monday.
As bullish pressure begins to weaken, I’m also keeping an eye on the 4H supply zone above, which could offer a stronger bearish reaction and a better opportunity to sell.
On the flip side, for any potential bullish continuation, I can see price sweeping the liquidity sitting below and then reacting from the 5H demand zone I’ve marked out. That area could provide the base for a re-accumulation and another move to the upside.
Confluences for GOLD Sells:
- Clear bearish reaction from the 3H supply zone with a completed Wyckoff distribution
- Liquidity to the downside remains untapped
- Weakening bullish momentum opens room for a possible sell-off
- DXY is showing short-term bullish strength, supporting a bearish bias on gold
P.S. If price reverses and takes out the current supply zone, I’ll be watching the next 4H supply zone for further reaction — but in the meantime, I’ll adapt by monitoring for a closer demand zone setup.
Have a great trading week ahead and stay sharp, traders!
XAUUSD Daily Outlook – Monday, May 12, 2025🔍 Daily Structure Summary:
After rejecting from the ATH zone (3500), price formed a corrective wave, with a clean bullish reaction from 3284–3292, now confirmed on Daily.
Friday’s daily candle closed bullish, forming a strong wick rejection from demand, indicating buy-side interest around 3290.
EMAs show price still in a pullback phase, with EMA21 and EMA50 overhead acting as dynamic resistance (~3360–3380).
📌 Key Daily Zones & Levels
Zone / Level Description
3448–3500 🔺 Premium Supply Zone – major rejection area (same as Weekly top)
3380–3395 🔁 Daily FVG + EMA confluence – near-term resistance zone
3340–3360 🔁 Old support → new resistance – possible rejection if unconfirmed
3284–3292 ✅ Confirmed Demand – recent bounce and bullish PA
3250–3265 🔵 Last defense zone – if this breaks, 3220 may be exposed
3220–3235 🔵 Major Daily Demand – matches Weekly BOS and potential reversal zone
📈 Current Price Action Notes:
Price is pushing away from 3290, aiming toward 3340–3360, where we may see the first intraday test of resistance.
A clean break above 3360 would open space toward 3380–3395, where FVG and EMA50 could slow price.
If price fails to hold above 3290, it may revisit 3250–3265 for a deeper liquidity sweep.
🧠 Flow Outlook for Monday:
Bullish scenario:
Price holds above 3290 and forms higher low → potential to reach 3360–3380 intraday. If that breaks, we target 3395.
Bearish scenario:
If we reject below 3340 and lose 3290 again, price may head back toward 3250–3235 for stronger demand testing.
📌 Summary of Levels (For May 12):
Type Price Zones Notes
Resistance 3448–3500 Premium HTF rejection zone
3380–3395 FVG + EMA confluence
3340–3360 Near-term intraday resistance
Support 3284–3292 Daily demand, bullish reaction confirmed
3250–3265 Key intraday demand & bounce zone
3220–3235 HTF daily demand + structure base
Gold: Potential Bullish Reversal Setup on XAU/USD from QML ZoneHello guys!
What I see:
QML in Lower Time Frame:
Price is currently testing a QML zone from a lower timeframe (marked in light blue).
This area aligns with a significant reaction point, suggesting institutional interest.
QML in Higher Time Frame:
Below this lies a higher timeframe QML, acting as a secondary support.
This adds confluence for a potential strong bullish rejection if the price dips further.
Engulfed Level:
A previously engulfed resistance level has been marked, showing where sellers lost control.
Price returning toward this area with reduced momentum indicates possible accumulation.
Targets Identified:
Multiple target levels are projected with an ascending structure.
These align with liquidity pools above recent highs, suggesting buy-side liquidity engineering.
Market Structure:
Current price behavior suggests the formation of higher lows and potential bullish continuation.
A corrective move into the QML zone could spark a strong impulsive leg upward.
XAUUSD Weekly Outlook – May 12–17, 2025High Timeframe Bias: Bullish with active pullback under premium supply
🔍 Macro Structure Insight:
Market structure remains bullish on Weekly, with a recent ATH at ~3500.
Price showed a strong rejection from the 3448–3500 premium supply zone but found support near 3284–3292.
We are currently in a retracement phase, and the next few candles will determine if it’s a reload or deeper correction.
📌 Key Weekly Structural Zones
Zone / Level Description
3500 ✅ ATH – liquidity sweep & rejection
3448–3500 🔺 Premium Weekly Supply – key rejection zone
3380–3395 🔁 Weekly FVG – potential short-term resistance
3284–3292 🔵 Fresh Support – demand reaction after daily wick bounce
3220–3250 🔵 HTF Weekly Demand – equilibrium & previous BOS zone
3120–3150 ❗ Critical Support – losing this would break bullish structure
📈 Fibonacci Weekly Extension Zones (Above ATH – 2285 → 3500 Leg)
Extension Level Target Price Description
1.0 3500 Current ATH
1.12 3560 First minor extension
1.18 3590 Shallow breakout target
1.236 3620 Key fibo confluence zone
1.272 3645 Round-level + breakout magnet
1.33 3680 Sentiment shift potential
1.414 3720 Major HTF fibo extension
1.5 3760 Mid-range round milestone
1.618 3800–3820 Golden extension + HTF magnet zone
🔁 Scenarios for This Week:
Bullish Continuation:
If 3284–3250 holds as a higher low → market may aim for 3380–3395, then test 3448–3500 again.
Breaking above ATH could trigger targets toward 3560 → 3590 → 3645.
Bearish Retracement:
If price breaks below 3250, a deeper move toward 3120–3150 could begin. This would threaten the weekly bullish leg.
⚠️ Watch for:
Weekly close below 3250 = short-term bearish shift
Push and hold above 3360–3380 = signs of bullish continuation
Rejection from 3448–3500 again = potential double-top liquidity trap
Gold Market Analysis – Weekly Outlook 10-05-2025Wondering where gold is heading next? Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered.
Our technical analysis indicates that gold has once again entered bearish territory on the 4-hour chart as of Friday’s close. This marks the second time in two weeks that gold has shifted into a bearish trend, further supporting our current outlook.
We have maintained a bearish bias on gold for several weeks, and the latest movement in the moving averages continues to validate this view, at least in the short term. Our team is actively monitoring the market for sell opportunities on lower timeframes, aiming to maximize profitability.
Stay tuned for further updates from the InvestmentLive trading desk.
Dow Jones Month of May Has Revealed Its Hand The first 10 days has trades in May and it has now shown its hand on what type of cycle this is. It is not a trending cycle nor a market maker cycle but a range bound cycle.
Just like in February, the Monthly open, in orange, is going to be major support until it breaks through it.
The purple line is May's FOMC release.
Look for a flush of the two equal lows and price to form a bottom slightly under the Monthly Open before a rally higher.
FOMC releases are used as MAJOR, MAJOR support and resistance levels. Expect May's FOMC level to do the same. Expect May's Monthly Open to be the price that price mean reverts around.
The average Monthly range is 3000 ticks. Using the Monthly open as roughly the 50% area, the range should be about 39,200-42,200
Below is a guide for upcoming daytrades and what to look for:
A layering into FOMC with the removal of the three lows. Two of which are suspended above the FOMC level
Major support trade where price flushes the lows under the Monthly Open and a rally back inside.
A short trade after price runs the highs of the two equal highs inside of the peak high.
Moral of the story?
Break out your range playbooks and fade every break. Look for highs and lows to be put in under/ over major swings. Price will run these levels.
Up again for goldHi traders,
Last week gold immediately went up and made a correction down.
On Friday price rejected from the 4H BPR so next week we could see more upside.
Let's see what price does and react.
Trade idea: Wait for a small correction down on a lower trimeframe to trade longs again.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with wave analysis, please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
GOLD : This time is different Hello !
No, this time is now different. It was a joke.
*****************************************************
1- Bar pattern of the last bull run is a true way of gold for us. This is almost perfection.
***
2- The objective is 7000-8000$ per once. The top momentum can really hit 10k or 12k if the demand explode, because today, we are in a connected world.
***
3- The top is when Ma deviation is 200% of the 200 MA Monthly in RED like 2011. However, il will update in weekly because is very interesting. You will find below this idea.
***
4- What is the signification for the equity ?
The signification is : No New bullrun until the top of the gold. Probably a consolidation at those levels. However, we are in capital rotation, so, we can easily imagine an explosion of gold if Market drop hard.
***
5- At this level, if you buy now, you can do an easily 100% and maybe 200%.
Learn the 4 Best Strategies to Maximize Your Profits in Trading
In the today's article, we will discuss 4 classic yet profitable forex and gold trading strategies.
1️⃣Pullback Trading
Pullback trading is a trend-following strategy where you open the positions after pullbacks.
If the market is trading in a bullish trend, your goal as a pullback trader is to wait for a completion of a bullish impulse and then let the market correct itself. Your entry should be the assumed completion point of a correctional movement. You expect a trend-following movement from there.
In a bearish trend, you wait for a completion of the bearish impulse, let the market retrace, and you look for short-entry after a completion of the retracement leg.
Here is the example of pullback trading.
On the left chart, we see the market that is trading in a bearish trend.
A pullback trader would short the market upon completion of the correctional moves.
On the right chart, I underlined the buy entry points of a pullback trader.
That strategy is considered to be one of the simplest and profitable and appropriate for newbie traders.
2️⃣Breakout Trading
Breakout trading implies buying or selling the breakout of a horizontal structure or a trend line.
If the price breaks a key support, it signifies a strong bearish pressure.
Such a violation will trigger a bearish continuation with a high probability.
Alternatively, a bullish breakout of a key resistance is a sign of strength of the buyers and indicates a highly probable bullish continuation.
Take a look, how the price broke a key daily resistance on a daily time frame. After a breakout, the market retested the broken structure that turned into a support. A strong bullish rally initiated from that.
With the breakout trading, the best entries are always on a retest of a broken structure.
3️⃣Range Trading
Range trading signifies trading the market that is consolidating .
Most of the time, the market consolidates within the horizontal ranges.
The boundaries of the range may provide safe points to buy and sell the market from.
The upper boundary of the range is usually a strong resistance and one may look for shorting opportunities from there,
while the lower boundary of the range is a safe place to buy the market from.
EURCAD pair is trading within a horizontal range on a daily.
The support of the range is a safe zone to buy the market from.
A bullish movement is anticipated to the resistance of the range from there.
Taking into considerations, that the financial instruments may consolidate for days, weeks and even months, range trading may provide substantial gains.
4️⃣Counter Trend Trading
Counter trend trading signifies trading against the trend.
No matter how strong is the trend, the markets always trade in zig-zags. After impulses follow the corrections , and after the corrections follow the impulses.
Counter trend traders looks for a completion of the bullish impulses in a bullish trend to short the market, and for a completion of bearish impulses in a downtrend to buy it.
Here is the example of a counter trend trade.
EURJPY is trading in a bullish trend. However, the last 3 bearish moves initiated from a rising trend line. For a trader, shorting the trend line was a perfect entry to catch a bearish move.
Such trading strategy is considered to be one of the most complicated , because one goes against the crowd and overall sentiment.
With the experience, traders may combine these strategies.
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