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Xauusd sell From a technical perspective, last week's failure near the top boundary of an ascending channel extending from late July and the subsequent pullback from the all-time peak could be seen as a sign of bullish exhaustion. However, mixed oscillators on the daily chart warrant some caution before positioning for further losses. Hence, any further decline is more likely to find some support near the $2,720-2,715 horizontal zone, below which the Gold price could aim to challenge the trend-channel support, currently pegged near the $2,690 region. Some follow-through selling would mark a bearish breakdown and pave the way for some meaningful corrective fall in the near term. Gold now sell 2740 Support 2730 Support 2725
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by JohnHarry_7
7
Mastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading ProfitabilityMastering the Risk/Reward Ratio: A Key to Trading Profitability In the world of trading, achieving success isn't merely about selecting the right stocks or making spot-on predictions. True profitability lies in managing risk effectively, a skill that can be the difference between sustained growth and heavy losses. A primary tool for this is the risk/reward ratio—a fundamental element in a trader’s toolkit. This metric helps traders maintain discipline and clarity, ensuring each trade has a strong potential for profit while keeping possible losses in check. Whether you’re new to trading or have years of experience, understanding and using the risk/reward ratio can transform your approach. It’s not about maximizing the number of wins but ensuring that the rewards consistently outweigh the risks. Here, we’ll explore how this ratio impacts trading strategy and why it’s critical for long-term success. Understanding the Risk/Reward Ratio The risk/reward ratio is a straightforward formula that compares the profit potential of a trade to its possible loss. Essentially, it answers the question: How much can I gain for every dollar I risk? For example, if you're willing to risk $100 for a possible $300 gain, your risk/reward ratio is 1:3, meaning you could make $3 for every $1 at risk. Example of a 1:3 risk-reward ratio in EUR/USD This concept encourages traders to evaluate the potential downside of a trade before jumping in, moving away from focusing solely on potential gains. By keeping a balanced view of risk and reward, traders can avoid seemingly attractive trades that may carry excessive risk, enabling them to approach the market with a disciplined, long-term mindset. Why Risk/Reward Matters Every trade involves risk, and the ability to manage it effectively often differentiates successful traders from those who struggle. Using the risk/reward ratio ensures that each trade is structured with a clear plan, protecting capital while allowing for potential profits. Without this focus on risk, traders may chase high returns without properly assessing the downside, leading to costly mistakes. Combined with tools like stop-loss orders and position sizing, the risk/reward ratio becomes part of a broader risk management strategy. These components work together to balance profit potential with loss control, which is essential for traders aiming to sustain profitability over time. Here you can find a comprehensive article on stop-loss strategies. Risk/Reward Ratio vs. Win Rate A common misconception among novice traders is that trading success depends on winning more trades than losing ones. Experienced traders know that profitability has more to do with how risk is managed in losses than how many wins you achieve. The risk/reward ratio addresses this, making it possible to be profitable even if a trader wins less than half of their trades, as long as the wins are substantial enough to offset the losses. For example, if a trader wins only 40% of the time but maintains a 1:3 risk/reward ratio, the profits from winning trades can cover losses from losing trades while still yielding an overall profit. Here is a comprehensive table comparing risk/reward ratios to win rate profitability. Advantages of a Disciplined Risk/Reward Approach One of the most valuable benefits of using the risk/reward ratio is the structure it brings to trading. It helps traders stay rational and minimizes emotionally driven decisions, such as holding onto losing positions with the hope of a reversal. By maintaining a favorable risk/reward ratio, traders enter each trade with a defined plan, reducing the chance of impulsive, loss-heavy decisions. Furthermore, applying a risk/reward framework ensures that trades are entered only when the reward justifies the risk. Over time, this disciplined approach fosters consistency and sets the stage for more predictable results. Steps to Calculate Risk/Reward Ratio Calculating the risk/reward ratio is a simple yet impactful process that enhances trade planning. Here’s a step-by-step guide: 1- Determine Your Risk: Define the amount you’re willing to lose if the trade moves against you, which is the difference between your entry price and stop-loss level. 2- Define Your Reward: Establish the potential profit if the trade goes in your favor, measured from the entry price to your target profit level. 3- Calculate the Ratio: Divide the potential reward by the potential risk to get your risk/reward ratio. For instance, if you’re buying a stock at $100 with a stop-loss at $95, your risk is $5. If you aim to sell at $115, your reward is $15, giving you a 1:3 risk/reward ratio. Choosing an Ideal Risk/Reward Ratio The ideal risk/reward ratio can vary based on trading style and goals, though many traders aim for a minimum of 1:2 or 1:3. Higher ratios like 1:3 allow for a more forgiving approach to losses, where a trader doesn’t need a high win rate to be profitable. However, shorter-term traders might use lower ratios (e.g., 1:1.5) while aiming for a higher win rate to balance profitability. Ultimately, the best ratio depends on factors like trading frequency, volatility, and risk tolerance. Day traders may prefer a 1:2 ratio, allowing for quicker exits with decent returns. Swing traders, on the other hand, might look for a 1:3 ratio or higher to justify holding positions longer despite potential market fluctuations. Managing Risk with the Right Tools Achieving long-term profitability requires more than just a favorable risk/reward ratio; it also demands effective risk management. Stop-loss orders, for instance, are invaluable for capping potential losses. Placing stops at logical price points, such as below support levels or above resistance levels, helps protect positions without risking premature exits. Similarly, maintaining discipline by skipping trades that don’t meet your risk/reward criteria can prevent excessive losses. Proper position sizing and a detailed trading plan round out this approach, ensuring that each trade aligns with your overall strategy and risk tolerance. Here is a comprehensive guide about the Risk Management Final Thoughts: The Power of the Risk/Reward Ratio in Trading The risk/reward ratio is more than a calculation—it’s a mindset that can lead to stronger, more disciplined trading decisions. By assessing potential risks and rewards before each trade, you can avoid impulsive choices and safeguard your capital. This approach brings clarity and control to trading, even amid market unpredictability. While the risk/reward ratio may be a straightforward tool, its impact is profound. Focusing on balancing risk with reward enables traders to protect themselves from major losses while pursuing worthwhile gains. The next time you plan a trade, remember to ask: “Does this meet my risk/reward criteria?” If not, stepping back could be the wisest move. Risk management is essential for lasting success, and the risk/reward ratio serves as a constant guide. Consistently applying this ratio fosters discipline, confidence, and, ultimately, greater profitability in your trading journey. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
1
Gold price analysis November 5Fundamental Analysis Gold prices reversed intraday losses to hit a more than one-week low and traded around $2,738, largely unchanged on the day ahead of the European session on Tuesday. Safe-haven demand stemming from a bitterly contested US presidential election and the risk of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East provided some support for the precious metal. Furthermore, the unraveling of the “Trump deal”, coupled with bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates further amid signs of a cooling US labour market, continued to drag US Treasury yields lower. This, in turn, fueled fresh US dollar selling and became another factor in favour of non-yielding gold amid cautious sentiment across global equity markets. However, the upside momentum in Gold remains limited as traders seem reluctant to place positive bets ahead of the key event risks this week – the US presidential election and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. Meanwhile, the release of the US ISM Services PMI Index on Tuesday will be looked at for short-term trading opportunities later in the North American session. Technical Analysis Gold is trading sideways in a narrow range between 2747 and 2725. Today the market is focused on this range as it breaks out of the notable port zone of 2758-2760 and 2712-2710 to generate reasonable BUY and SELL signals. Today’s strategy is quite basic in a day when gold is trading dull and trendless.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TVS-Trader
Gold Technical Outlook: Bearish Bias Amid Election Volatility Technical Analysis The price dropped and hit our target perfectly. Today, the market will be influenced by the U.S. election, introducing potential volatility and random movements. Despite this, the overall bias remains bearish. As long as the price trades below 2749, the bearish trend is likely to persist, targeting 2731. Any sustained move below 2731 could accelerate the decline toward 2720 and 2712. Conversely, a bullish reversal would be confirmed by a break above 2758, opening the path toward 2775. Bearish Scenario: The price may retest 2749 before resuming its downward trend toward 2731 and 2712. Stability below 2739 reinforces the bearish outlook. Bullish Scenario: A 4-hour candle close above 2758 would indicate a potential bullish shift, with subsequent targets at 2775 and 2788. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 2739 Resistance Levels: 2749, 2758, 2775 Support Levels: 2731, 2712, 2695 Trend Outlook: Above 2758: Uptrend Under 2758: Downtrend
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by SroshMayi
Palladium: Analyzing the Recent Surge in PricesSince the beginning of August 2024, Palladium has experienced a notable surge in value, reaching approximately $1,250 today. This strong bullish rally signals renewed interest in the precious metal, driven by various market dynamics. However, as the price approaches a critical supply area, traders must exercise caution and prepare for potential market reversals. Price Movement and Historical Context The recent price increase in Palladium has not gone unnoticed, and it coincides with a historical trend. Over the past five years, data shows that Palladium has typically encountered a reversal in value around this time of year. This historical pattern serves as a vital reference point for traders considering their next moves. Evaluating Supply Areas and Potential Reversals As Palladium nears a significant supply area, it becomes essential to analyze price action carefully. Before contemplating any short positions, it is prudent to wait for a clear bearish pattern to emerge. This approach minimizes the risk of entering prematurely, particularly in a market characterized by bullish momentum. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Insights The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals contrasting positions among market participants. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions, indicating optimism regarding Palladium's future performance. Conversely, "smart money" or institutional investors have begun to build bearish positions, suggesting that they anticipate a potential downturn. This divergence in sentiment may create a volatile environment as both sides adjust their strategies. The Importance of Patience In the current landscape, patience is crucial. Rushing into trades without solid confirmation can lead to unfavorable outcomes. By waiting for a clear bearish signal, traders can better position themselves for potential market reversals. This disciplined approach aligns with the principles of risk management and enhances the chances of executing successful trades. Conclusion In summary, Palladium's recent rally to $1,250 places it at a critical juncture. As it approaches a historically significant supply area, traders must remain vigilant and analytical. Observing the emergence of a bearish pattern, coupled with insights from the COT report, will be essential in determining the appropriate timing for any potential short positions. With patience and a strategic mindset, traders can navigate the current market conditions effectively. What are your thoughts on Palladium's trajectory, and how do you plan to position yourself in this evolving landscape? ✅ Please share your thoughts about PA1! in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
NYMEX:PA1!
by FOREXN1
5
WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Eyeing Potential Demand Zone RecoveryWTI crude oil is currently trading around $68.25 as of this Tuesday, following a significant gap-down opening to start the week. The move lower was largely influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East, as recent developments suggested a more contained military approach, which alleviated fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt oil supply. Upcoming U.S. Economic Data: GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus The U.S. economic calendar this week includes key data releases, beginning with the flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 on Wednesday, projected to show an annualized growth rate of around 3%. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could bolster the USD, adding pressure to USD-denominated assets like crude oil, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Following the GDP report, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will provide additional insight into U.S. labor market conditions, which could further influence dollar strength and, subsequently, WTI prices. Technical Analysis: WTI Trading in Demand Zone From a technical perspective, WTI crude is currently positioned within a demand zone, where buyers could be eyeing a recovery of Monday's gap-down. This demand zone represents a critical area where traders are observing whether buying interest will drive prices higher to close the gap. A recovery attempt here, with a tight stop loss, could offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup, particularly if data later in the week doesn’t significantly strengthen the USD. Conclusion The WTI crude oil market remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data this week, with a stronger USD potentially capping any recovery attempts. However, should the upcoming data align with current estimates or underperform, there may be room for WTI to rally from its demand zone, attempting to reclaim some of the lost ground from the recent gap-down. Traders may want to monitor these key levels and events closely, as they could provide both direction and confirmation for near-term price movement in WTI crude oil. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by FOREXN1
6
WTI Dips as Israel Avoids Targeting Iran’s Oil: What’s Next?The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US crude oil benchmark, is trading around $70.60 during Thursday's London session. The price edged lower following reports that Israel has assured the United States it will not target Iran’s nuclear or oil facilities in its planned retaliatory attacks. This news, as reported by senior Biden administration officials and the Wall Street Journal, came after the US sought to prevent further escalation in the Middle East to avoid a potential surge in oil prices. Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East and Oil Prices Oil markets have been on edge due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly following the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Any potential retaliation involving Iran has been closely watched, given Iran’s role as a major oil producer in the region. Had Israel planned to target Iran’s oil infrastructure, it could have led to significant supply disruptions, pushing oil prices higher. For now, traders are breathing a sigh of relief with the promise from Israel to avoid targeting these facilities, but geopolitical tensions still remain a key factor that could influence WTI in the near future. Should tensions escalate further, WTI prices could quickly rebound on supply concerns. OPEC and IEA Cut Global Oil Demand Forecasts This week also brought another major development for oil markets as both the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered their forecasts for global oil demand growth in 2024. The IEA now estimates global oil demand will grow by 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), bringing total demand to 104.3 million bpd next year, which is 300,000 bpd below previous estimates. These cuts are being driven by several factors, including the weakening global economic outlook and persistent challenges in key oil-consuming regions. In particular, China’s economic stimulus measures have failed to provide a meaningful boost to oil demand, further weighing on oil prices. This downward revision in demand growth expectations has created additional headwinds for crude oil prices, contributing to the recent decline in WTI. Technical Outlook: Bearish Sentiment But Potential Long Retracement From a technical standpoint, WTI is currently trading within a key demand area, suggesting that some buyers may step in to support prices. While the forecast based on seasonality points toward a bearish trend in the near term, there are some indications that a deeper long retracement could occur. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report shows that institutional investors, also known as "smart money," are maintaining long positions, indicating potential underlying support for oil prices. This dynamic suggests that while prices may experience further pressure in the short term, a retracement to the upside could occur if demand for oil begins to pick up or if geopolitical tensions resurface with greater intensity. Conclusion: WTI Traders Remain Cautious Amid Mixed Signals For now, WTI remains in a delicate position, influenced by a mix of geopolitical risks, lower global demand forecasts, and technical factors. The assurance from Israel that its retaliatory strikes will avoid targeting Iran’s oil infrastructure has alleviated some immediate concerns about a spike in oil prices. However, the ongoing geopolitical situation remains fluid, and any sudden escalation could quickly reverse the current price trajectory. At the same time, the reduced demand growth outlook from both OPEC and the IEA creates a bearish overhang for crude prices. With China’s stimulus measures failing to spark a meaningful recovery in demand, traders will be closely watching for any new developments that could shift the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. In summary, WTI may continue to face downward pressure in the short term, but a potential long retracement remains on the table, especially if market conditions or geopolitical tensions shift in the coming days. For now, traders are likely to stay cautious, awaiting clearer signals before taking decisive positions. ✅ Please share your thoughts about WTI in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
BLACKBULL:WTILong
by FOREXN1
1
GOLD → The US election and how does XAUUSD depend on it?FX:XAUUSD is waiting for strong news. The price continues to test and even update local lows, but in the next 1-2 days you need to be careful as high volatility is expected. The main issue on the agenda is the US presidential election. High volatility is expected. Until last week, markets were pricing in a Trump victory (his policies on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs will put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the US dollar). But on Monday, the situation showed a slightly different picture, with the odds of a Harris victory (opposite, successor, policies) rising In addition, expectations of a less aggressive easing cycle from the Fed are also supporting the dollar. Also, markets are taking into account the ongoing Middle East conflict between Israel and Iran. Technically, the emphasis of the flat boundaries. While the price is trading inside, but most likely an attempt to get out of the accumulation will be formed.... Resistance levels: 2745, 2758 Support levels: 2731, 2724, 2713 Technically, gold continues to test support with the aim of retesting deeper liquidity zones below. But the risks are quite high right now. Gold is still feeling the support, so there could be unpredictable market reactions depending on the outcome! Regards R. Linda!
FX:XAUUSDShort
by RLinda
6
Gold within stagnation zone due ElectionsTechnical analysis: Trading continues on very Low rate and Volatility on most levels is easing. Since #2,752.80 benchmark I mentioned many times on my remarks got invalidated and Gold is unable to stage recovery attempt above it, Bearish pattern on Hourly 4 chart reversed the Price-action towards #2,722.80 Support extension (Monthly Low's) and besides Sellung pressure evident throughout yesterday's and today's session, that was maximum for Buyers (at least for for current fractal). Daily chart is even more Bearish than its Moving Averages suggest (and break of former Ascending Chanel and trendline) so another candle is required to cross in Bearish values and reveal true Nature of the future trend which will restore the Selling bias according to my estimations. I am still looking for a complete frame fill at #2,700.80 benchmark first then #2,652.80 benchmark in extension if post-Election candles arrive and global economy feels significant relief which will add confidence into all asset classes and safe-havens such as Gold may lose (Investors losing interest). My position: As it was the case many times before, pre-Election candles carry thin Volume usually so I will monitor the Price-action from sidelines.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by goldenBear88