Midweek XAUUSD Insight | Dual View SetupPair: XAUUSD
Bias: Bullish
HTF Overview (Left Panel – 3H): Price action has been moving within bullish structure, with a major higher low currently holding strong. This HL is the key pivot I’m watching for continuation.
Refinement Zone (Middle – 30M): We’ve tapped into a 30M OB and are now sitting in mitigation territory. No signs of reversal yet, but the setup is maturing.
Entry Technique (Right Panel – 15M View): Just waiting for that classic Smart Money confirmation — LTF CHoCH, liquidity sweep, then return into OB. Will refine down to 5M for precise entry if price plays out clean.
Entry Zone: Waiting on confirmation around the OB zone
Target Zones: Based on HTF structure continuation
🧠 Mindset Note: Setup is solid, but patience wins. Let the story unfold — we only strike with clarity and precision.
Bless Trading!
Futures market
GOLDThe US 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.29%, down about 0.03 percentage points (0.64%) from the previous day’s level around 4.32%–4.34%.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is trading near 97.877, showing relative stability with minor fluctuations
Impact on Markets Today
The slight decline in the 10-year yield suggests modest easing of bond market pressure, possibly reflecting cautious investor sentiment amid ongoing fiscal concerns and expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year.
The DXY near 97.9 indicates a moderately strong dollar, though recent trends show some weakening due to fiscal worries and softer economic data.
Together, a stable-to-slightly weaker dollar and a modestly lower 10-year yield can support safe-haven assets like gold, though elevated yields still pose a headwind. But despite the dips of both the 10 year bond yield and the dollar index GOLD lost over 500pips from Asian session to Newyork session trading.
In brief: The US 10-year yield’s slight dip combined with a steady DXY reflects a market balancing inflation, fiscal concerns, and Fed policy outlook. This environment supports cautious risk-taking with safe-haven demand still relevant.
#gold #dollar
Gold Trading Analysis and Strategies for Sideways Decline MarketAfter Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, market risk aversion significantly cooled, and gold prices plunged by more than $30 in early trading. Although the stability of the ceasefire agreement remains doubtful, the rebound in risk appetite has dominated market trends, with stock markets rebounding, oil prices falling, and demand for safe-haven assets declining.
From a technical perspective, the moving average system on the daily chart of gold shows an intertwined state, indicating a relative balance between bulls and bears. The current key resistance above is near 3350, which is an important psychological threshold. If effectively broken, it may open up upward space; the lower support is focused on the 3285-3290 range, which is the lower edge of the May consolidation platform. A break below this level may intensify correction pressure. The loss of the midline in the 4-hour chart further confirms the short-term weak structure, providing technical support for the downward trend.
XAUUSD
sell@3330-3340
tp:3320-3310
buy@3285-3290
tp:3310-3320
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Gold $3300 TestWith geopol tensions easing, gold prices have continued to pullback and this morning brought the first re-test of $3300 in a couple of weeks. So far, that support has held and with the Fed talking up rate cut potential even in light of higher inflation projections, that's a factor that could contribute to bullish moves in gold. The bigger question is price action related, however, and whether the build of short-term higher-lows at $3300 earlier today can lead to a larger tide of strength.
The prices of $3325.60 and $3350.02 are both key short-term resistance levels, and if bulls can power through that, the door opens for re-tests of $3400 and then $3435.
On the underside of prices, the $3250 level was a key swing of support as taken from prior resistance, and that's the next major spot below. - js
Extra infoGeopolitical Gold Risk: EU Alarmed Over U.S. Custodianship
Rising geopolitical volatility and former President Trump’s escalating rhetoric against the U.S. Federal Reserve have sparked renewed European concerns over national gold reserves stored in the U.S., especially in Germany and Italy. Both nations hold the second and third-largest gold reserves globally (3,352 and 2,452 tonnes respectively), with a significant portion—over $245 billion in total—custodied at the New York Fed.
Lawmakers and public advocacy groups across the political spectrum in both countries are urging repatriation of gold to domestic vaults, citing Trump’s erratic policy stances and potential interference with central bank independence. The Bundesbank continues to defend New York's strategic value, while Italy remains silent. A growing number of central banks globally are reportedly shifting or planning to shift gold home as a precautionary move.
Japan’s Political Shifts: LDP Faces Voter Blowback Over Inflation
Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a historic electoral defeat in Tokyo’s local assembly elections, signaling growing voter discontent over surging food prices and stagnant wages. The LDP lost 8 of its 30 seats, surrendering its top position to Governor Yuriko Koike’s regional party, Tomin First.
With upper house elections on July 20, this loss raises risks of further political fragmentation. The populist right-wing Sanseito party gained seats for the first time, showcasing a shift toward fringe movements. PM Ishiba’s government also faces diplomatic and economic pressure as Trump threatens tariffs on Japanese imports. Tokyo’s results act as a warning sign that inflation and trade anxieties are materially influencing voter behavior.
U.S.-Korea Defence Diplomacy: Rolls-Royce Eyes GE Replacement
As South Korea reassesses its KF-21 fighter jet engine partner, UK officials are lobbying aggressively for Rolls-Royce to replace GE Aerospace, citing U.S. export restrictions that limit Seoul’s ability to sell jets internationally. The KF-21’s export prospects to Indonesia and the UAE are reportedly at risk due to American national security clauses.
Rolls-Royce proposes a joint development model to de-risk the engine program. However, entrenched U.S.–Korea defense ties, including Hanwha’s integration with U.S. military platforms, complicate this pivot. The U.K. seeks not only defense industrial collaboration but strategic geopolitical alignment with Seoul as a hedge against U.S. protectionism.
Energy Sector on Edge: Majors Withdraw Staff Amid Escalation Risks
European energy giants BP, TotalEnergies, and Eni have begun evacuating foreign staff from Iraqi fields, citing risk of Iranian retaliation after U.S. strikes on Tehran’s nuclear facilities. Operations remain intact, but local authorities confirm precautionary withdrawals, with Total reportedly pulling 60% of its expats.
Rumaila, Zubair, and southern Iraqi fields are proximate to Iranian territory and vulnerable to missile or proxy militia attacks. Analysts caution that Iran could exploit asymmetric tactics via regional militias, threatening key infrastructure without directly engaging U.S. forces. Shell, also present via Basra Gas, declined comment. The withdrawal underscores the fragile security balance as military posturing continues to escalate.
Oil Markets Volatile: Trump Demands Surge in U.S. Production
Following Brent crude’s spike to $81.40 and a subsequent intraday fall to $76.90, President Trump urged the Department of Energy to “DRILL, BABY, DRILL!!!” to stabilize prices. His public messaging emphasizes a fear that elevated oil costs play into enemy strategies, pressuring energy firms and OPEC+ to expand output.
So far, Middle East supply has not been disrupted, and no damage to the Strait of Hormuz—which handles 21 million barrels/day—has been recorded. However, analysts from S&P, SEB, and RBC warn of continued upside risk if Iran or its proxies target tankers, refineries, or pipelines. Several tankers have already changed course or anchored to avoid chokepoints, signaling preemptive market caution.
Financial Markets and Central Bank Tensions
Trump’s repeated interventions into Fed policy, combined with tariff-driven inflation concerns, have created a highly politicized environment for monetary policy. He has publicly demanded immediate rate cuts to 1–2%, pressuring Powell amid signs of internal division among Fed governors.
With inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target but geopolitical risks rising, Powell must testify to Congress this week and defend the institution's independence. A shift in Fed leadership post-2026 under a Trump administration may fundamentally reshape U.S. monetary credibility if dovish, politically loyal appointees take over.
European Fixed Income Competition: Vanguard Cuts Fees
As competition heats up in Europe’s bond ETF market, Vanguard has slashed fees on 7 of its 15 European fixed income ETFs. The changes reduce average expense ratios to 0.11%, part of a broader push to gain share from leaders like BlackRock and State Street.
This move aligns with Vanguard’s U.S. fee overhaul earlier this year, aimed at democratizing access to fixed income. European investors increasingly demand lower-cost bond solutions as the bond market now exceeds equities in size, yet remains more opaque and less efficient. The fee cut should help catalyze inflows from cost-sensit
Market next move 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Support Holding Firm:
The analysis assumes the price will drop after failing resistance, but the current price action is showing higher lows, suggesting accumulation.
The support area has been tested multiple times, showing strength.
2. Volume Analysis Contradiction:
Recent green volume bars indicate buying interest at lower levels.
No significant volume spike on the last downward leg, suggesting lack of strong selling pressure.
3. Potential Inverted Head and Shoulders:
The current formation could be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup.
If confirmed, this could lead to a breakout above the resistance area, not a drop.
4. Trendline Breakout Watch:
There's a potential bullish breakout of the descending trendline.
A break above 3,320 USD could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a target near 3,340–3,350 USD.
CAD Option Flow Positive Sentiment. It's worth taking a closer Based on the analysis of yesterday's trading on CME, we have captured an excellent portfolio in the lens.
The trader methodically formed this position in a 5-minute period of time, which is a good sign.
Сonfirmation - the market is already moving in his direction
But, reasonable entry level - above 0.7339.
Don't rush it. The risk/profit ratio is still at acceptable levels, but it's worth waiting for the resistance to be overcome.
Market next target 🔁 Disrupted Analysis (Bullish Scenario Instead of Bearish)
1. Support Holding Firm:
The analysis assumes the price will drop after failing resistance, but the current price action is showing higher lows, suggesting accumulation.
The support area has been tested multiple times, showing strength.
2. Volume Analysis Contradiction:
Recent green volume bars indicate buying interest at lower levels.
No significant volume spike on the last downward leg, suggesting lack of strong selling pressure.
3. Potential Inverted Head and Shoulders:
The current formation could be the right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders pattern, a classic bullish reversal setup.
If confirmed, this could lead to a breakout above the resistance area, not a drop.
4. Trendline Breakout Watch:
There's a potential bullish breakout of the descending trendline.
A break above 3,320 USD could invalidate the bearish thesis and suggest a target near 3,340–3,350 USD.
XAUUSD:Sharing of the Latest Trading StrategyAll the trading signals today have resulted in profits!!! Check it!!!👉👉👉
Following Trump’s announcement of a comprehensive ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, market risk aversion has significantly subsided, with gold prices plunging over $50 at one point. Internal Fed divergence on rate cuts has intensified: if Powell signals limited rate cuts this year, it may strengthen the dollar and suppress gold; conversely, a dovish stance could ease downward pressure on gold prices.
Short-term drivers: The retreat of geopolitical risks and rising risk appetite are the main causes of gold’s decline, while a weakening dollar and potential Fed dovishness still provide support.
Medium-to-long term: Global economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and expectations of Fed easing policies continue to form structural support for gold.
Technical Analysis:Bull-bear forces are relatively balanced.Key resistance: Near 3345,Support zone: Focus on 3285–3290.
Trading Strategy:
Adopt a buy-on-dip approach on pullbacks.
buy@3285-3290
TP:3320-3330
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CRUDE set to fire 82 $ 90 $ 104 $ ????Crude Daily Elliot waves count suggest big UP setup in progress right now
55 $ key level to watch for buyer Extension point
Due to amid middle-east war situation may trigger Up move impulse wave towards 82 $ to 104 $ range
EW count are keeping changing during different price action in different time frame & multiple forecast .
this educational based chart as per EW theory method
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD June 24, 2025
🌀 Wave Structure
Looking at the H1 chart during the Asian session today:
+ Price broke below the previous low at 3341, invalidating the idea that Friday’s rally marked the beginning of a new uptrend.
+ Instead, the rally appears to be forming a wave X in a larger WXY corrective structure.
+ Given the current complex corrective pattern, it’s challenging to precisely define the exact wave shape and targets.
🔻 Wave Y Structure:
+ The price action suggests the formation of a 5-wave decline, with the market currently in wave 4.
+ Wave 4 target zone: 3357 – 3363 → Sell zone.
+ After completing wave 4, we expect a continuation of the downtrend via wave 5, with a target around 3327 – 3324 → Buy zone.
+ Once wave 5 completes, we anticipate at least a corrective upward retracement, with targets at 3363 – 3376 (these are the TP levels for the buy trade).
⚡️ Momentum Analysis
+ D1 timeframe: Momentum is turning bullish, suggesting a potential rally lasting around 5–8 D1 candles after wave 5 finishes.
+ H4 timeframe: Momentum is declining and may enter oversold territory within 1–2 candles, supporting the completion of wave 5.
+ H1 timeframe: Momentum is rising and approaching overbought levels, indicating a likely end of wave 4 within 1–2 H1 candles.
📌 Trade Plan
🔹 SELL ZONE: 3363 – 3365
+ SL: 3373
+ TP1: 3342
+ TP2: 3330
🔹 BUY ZONE: 3327 – 3324
+ SL: 3317
+ TP1: 3342
+ TP2: 3363
+ TP3: 3376
+ Important Note:❗️
- If price reaches these zones with a Mazuboru candle (long-bodied candle with no wick) and fast volatility, do not enter immediately.
- Wait for the candle to close. If the zone breaks, keep an eye on the next support area around 3313 for potential reactions.
GOLD Ceasefire Violations Alleged:
Despite the ceasefire, both sides have accused each other of violations:
Israel reportedly struck a radar site north of Tehran just hours after the ceasefire was due to take effect, but refrained from further attacks following a direct call between Trump and Netanyahu.
Iranian missiles were fired toward Israel after the ceasefire announcement, but it is unclear if these were intentional breaches or operational delays.
GOLD safe haven appeal resumes buying in the face of war and geopolitical tension in middle east
Could the Copper drop from here?The price has rejected off the resistace level which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 4.8811
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 4.9661
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 4.7176
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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25/6/25 Bears Need More Follow-through Selling
Tuesday’s candlestick (Jun 24) was a big bear bar closing near its low.
In our last report, we said traders would see if the bears can create sustained follow-through selling following the sell-off in the night session, or if the market would trade lower but find support around the 4030-50 area instead.
The market sold off sharply, and the breakout point and the 20-day EMA were tested.
The bulls hope the top of the 3980 breakout point area and the 20-day EMA will act as support.
They hope to get a retest of the Jun 20 high, even if it only forms a lower high.
They must create strong bull bars to show they are back in control.
The bears want the current move to form a major lower high (vs April) and a failed breakout above the trading range. So far, the market is reversing lower from a lower high.
They want a resumption of the broad bear channel and the third leg down with the first two legs being Jan 17 and May 8.
They must create more follow-through selling to increase the odds of a resumption of the broad bear channel.
Production for June should be more or less around May's level.
Refineries' appetite to buy so far looks decent.
Export: Looks strong in the first 25 days +5%
For tomorrow (Wednesday, Jun 25), traders will see if the bears can create more follow-through selling.
The move down is strong enough for traders to expect at least a small sideways to down leg after a small pullback.
Andrew
GOLD PULLS BACK TO BUY ZONE!Hey Traders so looking at Gold as we can see it has now pulled back to the trendline and is testing support at $3300 level.
So if bullish now is the time to buy it with a stop loss under support at 3237 or even maybe even 3200.
Also Seasonally Gold normally bottoms in the Summer around July or August.
Imo a wide stop is need to let the market breathe we don't want to be stopped out due to normal daily movement.
If bearish however be very careful this seems to me like strong bull market. I wouldn't think about shorting unless breaks below trendline and below 3200.
Always use Risk Management!
(Just in we are wrong in our analysis most experts recommend never to risk more than 2% of your account equity on any given trade.)
Good Luck & Hope This Helps Your Trading 😃
Clifford
Bullish bounce off pullback support?XAU/USD is reacting off the support level which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 3,298.57
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci projection and the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 3,258.87
Why we like it:
There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 3,393.70
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us!
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
USOIL Expected to Rebound to the 68–70 ZoneUSOIL has shown signs of short-term overselling, and a technical rebound is likely during today’s session. Traders participating in crude oil can consider buying on dips, focusing on short-term opportunities with proper position management. Quick entries and exits are recommended.
Review and plan for 25th June 2025Nifty future and banknifty future analysis and intraday plan.
This video is for information/education purpose only. you are 100% responsible for any actions you take by reading/viewing this post.
please consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
----Vinaykumar hiremath, CMT