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Report - June 24, 2025Geopolitical Flashpoint: U.S.–Iran–Israel Conflict Reaches Temporary Pause After weeks of escalating military engagement, President Trump has declared a phased cease-fire between Iran and Israel, effective June 25. While Israel has not officially confirmed, both sides reportedly agreed to halt attacks if met with mutual restraint. Iran launched 14 missiles toward Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar on Monday in retaliation for the U.S. bombing of its nuclear sites; 13 were intercepted with no casualties. This symbolic attack was designed as a “face-saving” gesture, avoiding a broader conflict or disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil chokepoint. Market Impact: Oil dropped sharply (WTI -7.2%, Brent -6.8%) as war premium unwound. Equities rallied (S&P 500 +1%, Dow +0.9%) on relief from escalation. Risk-off unwound modestly with global equities rising in Asia (Nikkei +1.1%, Hang Seng +1.8%). Strategic Implications: A durable cease-fire is far from guaranteed. Israel may not comply long-term. Iran’s restraint signals desire for diplomatic off-ramp, supported by Qatari mediation. U.S. avoided further retaliation, citing the limited scope of Iran’s action as justification. Trump’s Pressure on the Fed and the ‘Powell Trap’ President Trump has intensified attacks on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, demanding sharp rate cuts (targeting 1–2%). With inflation still near 2.6% Core PCE and tariffs starting to filter through consumer prices, the Fed risks its credibility if it yields to political pressure. Fed Dynamics: Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller (Trump appointees) support July cuts due to labor concerns. Powell testifies before Congress this week, expected to defend central bank independence. Market Reaction: 10-Year yield fell to 4.32%, 2-Year to 3.83%. FedWatch: 22.7% chance of July cut, up from 14.5% pre-Iran strike. Strategic Outlook: Fed faces a no-win scenario: cut and risk inflation, or hold and face political firestorm. Political pressure ahead of Powell’s February 2026 term expiry is rising—Trump may be shaping a post-Powell Fed regime. U.S. Housing Market Update: Rising Inventory, Stalled Buyers May existing-home sales rose +0.8% MoM (vs. -1.3% est.) but remain near record lows (4.03M annualized). Inventory rose +6.2% MoM, +20.3% YoY, yet affordability remains a major obstacle. Median price: $422,800 (near record), +1.3% YoY. Mortgage rates >6.5%, limiting buyer participation. Price cuts surged (1 in 4 listings), showing seller capitulation. Homes are sitting longer (27 days on market vs. 24 a year ago). Implications: Affordability gap persists: $100k income now affords just 37% of listings vs. 65% in 2018. Selective regional strength: Midwest/Northeast stronger than Sunbelt/Southwest. Energy Sector: Fragile but Stabilized for Now Iran’s deliberate avoidance of energy infrastructure has led to a collapse in crude prices post-spike. However, risks remain: Strait of Hormuz still vulnerable; closure would cut ~20% of global oil supply. WTI pulled back to $75.67, Brent at $78.89—still ~10% higher than pre-June levels. Trump publicly pressuring oil markets to keep prices low, signaling political discomfort with oil shocks during re-election year. Energy Equities: Exxon -2.6%, Halliburton -6.8% — oil-linked stocks lagged. European oil names may rally if prices stay elevated: 7.8% EPS boost with +20% oil (Panmure).
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Buranku
GOLD 4H CHART ROUTE MAP UPDATEHey Everyone, Great day on the markets once again. This is an update on our 4H chart idea from Sunday, also playing out perfectly. We started with our bullish target hit at 3375 with no cross and lock confirming the rejection into completing our bearish target at 3306. We will now need to see ema5 cross and lock on either weighted level to determine the next range. We will keep the above in mind when taking buys from dips. Our updated levels and weighted levels will allow us to track the movement down and then catch bounces up. We will continue to buy dips using our support levels taking 20 to 40 pips. As stated before each of our level structures give 20 to 40 pip bounces, which is enough for a nice entry and exit. If you back test the levels we shared every week for the past 24 months, you can see how effectively they were used to trade with or against short/mid term swings and trends. The swing range give bigger bounces then our weighted levels that's the difference between weighted levels and swing ranges. BULLISH TARGET 3375 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3375 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGETS 3439 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3439 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3499 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK ABOVE 3499 WILL OPEN THE FOLLOWING BULLISH TARGET 3561 BEARISH TARGETS 3306 - DONE EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3306 WILL OPEN THE SWING RANGE 3236 3171 EMA5 CROSS AND LOCK BELOW 3171 WILL OPEN THE SECONDARY SWING RANGE 3089 2995 As always, we will keep you all updated with regular updates throughout the week and how we manage the active ideas and setups. Thank you all for your likes, comments and follows, we really appreciate it! Mr Gold GoldViewFX
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Goldviewfx
9
Crude Oil - Major VolatilityDue to what we are seeing between the US, Israel, and Iran - Oil prices have experienced heightened levels of volatility. Since September '23, Oil has respected a clear series of lower highs, with each touch of the orange trendline marked by a red X. Every attempt higher has been faded — and nothing's changed yet. The most recent move started with a bull div at the $55 double bottom — this front-ran the escalation between Israel and Iran, sending price rocketing into $77. At the highs: Bear div forms on RSI RSI rejects clean off 70 Daily candles close below orange trendline Peace talk headlines emerge Price drops nearly 17% from the top Now we’re back inside our white box, a strong demand zone from $64–$67. Depending on how talks go between these countries will determine the next market stricture to develop for crude oil. If talks go well we could see a breakdown of the $64 level into the $58-$61 range or if the war starts to escalate we could see this $64 level hold and head back up towards the trendline.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by VIAQUANT
Buying the Dip or Catching a Knife? My Gold Setup Explained.Entered a long position on XAU/USD from the 1H demand zone following sharp intraday selling into a key support level. With gold hovering near $3,300 and a significant testimony from Fed Chair Powell on deck, the setup aligns with both technical rebound potential and fundamental uncertainty that could fuel upside. The goal here is to play the liquidity vacuum left after aggressive positioning was cleared, with tight invalidation and asymmetric reward. Technicals: • Entry aligned with prior price inefficiency and confluence of multiple demand zones • 1H structure shows clear deviation below the range with immediate buy-side response • EMA channel flattening, indicating potential compression ahead of expansion • First target: $3,352 • Risk-managed with defined stop-loss below $3,260 Execution Note: This is not a “hold forever” trade. It’s an opportunistic reaction to unwind + sentiment imbalance. Fundamentals • Gold saw a 25% surge in 2024 due to safe-haven demand and dovish policy, but enters 2025 under pressure from: ▫️ A strong USD ▫️ Higher cost of carry ▫️ Speculators taking profit • Fed policy remains the core variable: ▫️ A hawkish tone from Powell could weigh on price ▫️ Rate cuts would likely revive bullish momentum • Central bank demand remains supportive • Geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Iran) could trigger safe-haven bids again. Bearish headwinds: • Waning bullish momentum per RSI divergence • Reduced rate cut expectations post-election • Powell’s testimony could revive volatility either way. This is a short-term tactical long, not a macro bet. With sentiment temporarily overextended and key support defended intraday, this is a high R/R window to exploit Powell-related volatility. Let’s see how price reacts into $3,350+. Any sustained strength there would open room toward $3,400, while failure would confirm a retest of $3,260s. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
COMEX:GC1!Long
by AR33_
Dark moment for prices. Will it fall even lower?Information summary: Due to the ceasefire in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite has rebounded, demand for safe-haven assets has declined, and gold prices have plummeted. As an interest-free asset, gold prices are under pressure against the backdrop of declining risk aversion, but there is still buying support at low levels. Investors are currently focusing on the speech of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell at a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee. Powell has been cautious about whether to cut interest rates in the near future. Market analysis: The current market selling sentiment has increased significantly, and for gold, falling has become the only path. It seems that the market has lost hope in gold, and the current gold price has fallen to around 3295, then rebounded slightly, and is currently fluctuating around 3313. The break of 3300 declares that gold still has further room to fall, and from the trend point of view, it is likely to continue to fall. The current trend shows that the important support is around 3285. It is possible that it will fall directly to the current position. The Fed is still speaking, and it is unpredictable whether it will cause drastic fluctuations in gold in the future. However, from today's trend, shorting is the best solution at present, and the upper resistance position is in the range of 3315-3325. Operation strategy: Short around 3320, stop loss 3330, profit range 3290-3285.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by Quaid_1
GOLD ANALYSIS: A Bullish Breakout coming XAU-USD🔍 Key Technical Levels Decoded 🛡️ FORTRESS SUPPORT ZONE: $3,245 - $3,295 🛡️ Psychological level at: $3,250 1. 🎯 TARGET ZONES: Immediate Target: $3,360 (4H FVG - Fair Value Gap) Primary Target: $3,320 - 3,340 2. 🎭 The Liquidity Grab The recent dip was a masterclass in market mechanics: Weak longs were flushed out at $3,293 mean Smart money accumulated at discount prices _______________________________ ⚠️ RISK MANAGEMENT 🚨 DISCLAIMER ⚠️ DYOR
FX:XAUUSDLong
by ONE1iMPACT
1
XAUUSD – Selling Pressure Intensifies, the 3,300 USD 1. Overall Technical Context The XAUUSD daily chart shows that gold is under bearish pressure after failing to break the key confluence resistance at 3,385–3,399 USD, which includes: - Fibonacci retracement levels 0.5 – 0.618 - A strong supply zone that has been repeatedly rejected - A minor swing high formed near 3,451 USD 2. Recent Price Behavior Price has broken below the short-term support at 3,331 USD and is now retesting the Key Lever zone around 3,300 USD, which is a confluence of: - Previous June swing low - Fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the latest upward move from 3,221 to 3,451 - A key previous support zone, potentially forming the right shoulder of a head and shoulders structure If this zone breaks decisively, XAUUSD may continue falling toward the 3,270 – 3,250 USD area, where strong liquidity was previously found. Key Technical Zones Resistance: 3,385 – 3,399: Fibo 0.5–0.618 zone and recent swing high 3,435 – 3,451: Major swing high and starting point of the latest correction Support: 3,300 – 3,320 (Key Lever): Major support currently being tested 3,271 – 3,250: Next support if the current zone fails Suggested Trading Scenarios Scenario 1 – Buy on Confirmation at Key Lever Entry: 3,300 – 3,297 (Key Lever zone) Stop-loss: Below 3,292 Take-profit: 3,310 – 3,315 – 3,320 Condition: Wait for a clear reversal candlestick pattern or signs of selling absorption on H4/H1 Scenario 2 – Sell if Price Breaks Below Key Lever Entry: Below 3,290 (after clear break of Key Lever) Stop-loss: Above 3,298 Take-profit: 3,280 – 3,270 P.S. XAUUSD is currently sitting at a decisive support area around 3,300 USD. The medium-term trend will depend on whether this zone holds. Traders are advised to closely watch price action on the H1–H4 timeframes before executing entries. Follow for more daily trading strategies and don’t forget to save this analysis if you find it helpful for your trading plan. Analyst: @Henrybillion
OANDA:XAUUSD
by Henrybillion
1
Gold prices rose as dollar data was not good 📌 Gold information: Gold prices plunged on Tuesday as a ceasefire was declared in the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, market risk appetite rebounded, and demand for safe-haven assets declined. The ceasefire news pushed global stocks higher, while oil prices fell to a two-week low as concerns about supply disruptions eased. The plunge in crude oil prices also further suppressed gold's inflation hedging appeal. As an interest-free asset, gold prices are under pressure against the backdrop of waning risk aversion, but there is still buying support at low levels. Investors are currently focusing on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's appearance at a House Financial Services Committee hearing. Powell has been cautious on whether to cut interest rates in the near future. 📊Comment Analysis The current market selling sentiment has increased significantly, and for gold, falling seems to be the only way to go. Today, whether you look at rebound short or low long, basically you will not have a chance, that is, falling, it seems that the market has lost hope in gold, and the current gold has fallen to 3295, and the break of 3300 declares that gold has further room to fall. From the trend point of view, it is likely to fall now! The further strong support on the current trend line is around 3274, and it is not ruled out that it will fall directly to the current position. At present, the Federal Reserve is still speaking, and whether it will cause drastic fluctuations in gold in the future is still unpredictable, but from today's trend, shorting is already the best solution at present, and the upper resistance can first look at 3330! 💰Strategy Package Gold: Rebound 3325-3335 short, stop loss 3345, target 3290-3300! ⭐️ Note: Labaron hopes that traders can properly manage their funds - Choose the lot size that matches your funds
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by labaronAA
1
XAUUSD Price Analysis | Bearish Reversal in ProgressGold has sharply broken down from the upper boundary of a well-respected parallel channel, hinting at a potential trend reversal. 🔎 Technical Breakdown: Strong rejection at ~$3,440 resistance zone Break in market structure = early signs of bearish momentum Support 1: $3,300 – key short-term zone Support 2: $3,250 – major confluence level If price fails to hold above $3,300, a continuation toward $3,250 looks likely in the coming sessions. 📊 Trade Setup Bias: Bearish Entry Zone: On pullbacks below $3,390 TP1: $3,300 TP2: $3,250 SL: Above $3,420 (recent swing high) ⚠ Watchlist Dates: 🗓 June 18 – FOMC Meeting (high impact) 💬 What’s your outlook? Will gold hold $3,300 or are bears in control? Let’s discuss below! #Gold #XAUUSD #PriceAction #TradingView #TechnicalAnalysis #Forex #FOMC #MarketOutlook
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by James-Pipstr