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2024-11-04 - priceactiontds - daily update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Most went sideways today and we got some marginally lower lows. That was decent enough to disappoint bulls who were used to BTFD for a long long time now. I do think some expansion of the current range is possible but I doubt we get a bigger breakout tomorrow due to US elections. Will the election effect the market big time? No idea but my guess is less than many expect. Can either side end the party for the 0.1% and make them sell their overvalued stonkz? Probably not but I am open to surprises. My guess is we will chop wildy back and forth, like today’s US open. Bears will likely get their second leg down, but it’s too soon. dax xetra comment: 50% pullback of the current range from Thursday’s low to Friday’s high is around 19260 and we closed 19260. Market is in balance at that price and I expect more sideways before we get another impulse down. To guess if we hit 19000 before 19350, is impossible and you should not trade based on those questions. Middle of the range is the worst place for trades, so wait. current market cycle: trading range key levels: 18900 - 19400 bull case: My line in the sand for bulls continues to be 19400 and until they break that price, bears are in full control. For tomorrow I expect more buyers around 19000-19100 and I will continue to look for longs in that area, until it’s clearly broken. Invalidation is below 19000. bear case: Bears prevented bulls from printing 19400, which showed strength and bulls finally gave up around 2 p.m. cet where we broke below 19300. The selling was much weaker than Friday’s rally and already had 3 legs down. Maybe bears can push this down to 19000-19090 but I don’t think the odds are good to take that trade. Shorts above 19300 can work. Most important for now is to not get trapped into bad trades like shorting below 19200 or buying above 19350. Invalidation is above 19400. short term : Neutral. Market needs to move more sideways before we get another impulse, which will probably be down for a second leg. Will look for shorts above 19300. medium-long term - Update from 2024-10-19: 20000 is the goal for 2024, if bulls do not get it until year end, it will probably not happen for the next 5-10 years. This market is beyond overvalued and will drop 30-50% in the next 5 years. I have no doubts about that. That fact should not be relevant to your trading at all. current swing trade: None trade of the day: Shorting 19350 since it was bigger resistance and market tried 3 times to get above and failed.
EUREX:FDXSZ2024
by priceactiontds
XAUUSD - Gold Awaiting US ElectionsGold is below the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe. In today's analysis, I have drawn trade scenarios for you based on various confirmations In each circle we look for one-hour timeframe candles to confirm the expected trend. After a grueling and controversial campaign season, the US election will be held this week. Although many experts believe a clear winner is unlikely to be announced on Wednesday, much of the uncertainty surrounding the US political landscape is expected to ease next week, which may not bode well for gold. This precious metal had significant momentum last month due to the election fluctuations. Market analysts pointed out that the improvement of former US President Donald Trump's chances of victory and the creation of a potential "red wave" (a Republican victory) in Congress raised concerns about the continued unabated increase in government spending. In recent weeks, that fear has extended to either party's control of the White House and both houses of Congress. However, there is a famous saying in the financial markets for times like this: "Buy the rumor and sell the news." Last week, gold prices hit an all-time high above $2,800 an ounce as investors weighed in on rumors surrounding the US election. Dennis Gartman, a noted commodity investor, said he has become more cautious about gold as it draws more attention from investors. However, he added that despite any near-term weakness, gold's long-term fundamentals are well supportive of prices. "The main trend is still bullish," he said. Aside from the geopolitical turmoil created by this election cycle, gold remains well-supported by the sluggish US economy and labor market. In October, the US economy added just 12,000 jobs, well below expectations for 100,000 jobs. Some of the weakness can be attributed to fluctuations caused by cyclone devastation in southern states. However, looking beyond this volatility, sharp downward revisions in August and September suggest that the labor market is cooling. At the same time, this week we also saw that inflation is continuously increasing. The main measure of personal consumption expenditures, the U.S. central bank's preferred measure of inflation, showed that consumer prices held steady at 2.7% over the past three months. The Fed is stuck and will continue to cut interest rates as the labor market weakens. While interest rate cuts may not be as aggressive as they would like, higher inflation means lower real interest rates, which will hurt the US dollar and support gold prices.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by Ali_PSND
Soybean Oil’s Red Pill Moment: The Short Signal Just Hit"You’ve been waiting, watching, wondering when the veil would lift. Today is that day." Soybean oil just crossed a threshold, one that turns theory into action. This isn't just a hint anymore; it’s a red pill moment. Today, we got the confirmation we needed: a Daily bearish momentum divergence trigger has sealed the deal. If you've been waiting for a sign, here it is—the entry point is here. Decoding the Signs from the Commitment of Traders (COT) "What if I told you that the market leaves clues? And only the most discerning see them." Our strategy isn’t based on surface-level movements but on patterns and signals that tell the deeper story. Soybean oil is primed for a down move. Let’s break down the intel: Commercials’ Short Stance Relative to their positioning over the last 26 weeks, commercials have positioned themselves heavily short. Last time they were this committed was December 2023, a setup that spelled trouble for the long side. Overvaluation Across Key Metrics Against gold and treasuries, soybean oil is flashing overvalued based on our WillVal indicator. This isn’t random; the market is overextended and vulnerable to the downside. Bearish “Pinch” Confirmation Two weeks ago, a Bearish Pinch formed on ADX/Stochastic—one of the most reliable indicators of an impending pullback. Today’s momentum divergence confirms it. The alignment is uncanny, if you’re paying attention. Seasonal Trends: Down to December True Seasonal points down, favoring the bears. It’s as if time itself is backing this move. Supplementary Indicators Are Aligned Insider Acc/Dis, %R, and Stochastic are all signaling in unison: the tide is turning. Each of these alone is meaningful, but together, they mark a rare convergence that few recognize. "The trigger is pulled, and now we walk the path." This isn’t a drill. Today’s bearish momentum divergence confirmation is the daily trend trigger we needed, a line in the sand between potential and execution. For those who see beyond the surface, this is your sign to take action. To uncover more of these market signals and gain the insights no one else is sharing, follow @Tradius_Trades. Because once you’re in on the code, everything changes.
CBOT:ZLZ2024Short
by Tradius_Trades
WTI Wave Analysis 4 November 2024 - WTI reversed from long-term support level 66.75 - Likely to rise to resistance level 75.00 WTI crude oil recently reversed up from the long-term support level 66.75 (which has been reversing the price from the end of 2021), standing near the lower weekly Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from the support level 66.75 continues the weekly upward impulse wave (3), which also started from the same support level in September. Given the strength of the support level 66.75, WTI crude oil can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 75.00 (former strong resistance from October).
THINKMARKETS:WTILong
by FxProGlobal
Another chance to buy $USOIL near the bottom of the rangeOn September 9th with oil dropping down to $68 from $84 back in July I pointed out that there was support down in that zone from what I call the "SPR REFILL LEVEL". A month later in early October the price of crude oil had rebounded to $76-$78 and the highest daily low reached $74.51 and the highest high was $78.43. Pretty volatile price action in one of the worlds top commodities that impacts global GDP substantially. By late October, oil had fallen once again back to the "SPR REFILL LEVEL" at the $67 level and once again has been rebounding since and today sits at $71.40 here. The BIGGEST point to remember is that the current political environment has had a massive impact on the price of oil as you can see from the red triangle in the top-left of the chart where back a year ago the strategic petroleum reserve was raided and liquidated significantly into the open market and drove the price of oil down. The market rebounded from the initial waves are revisited that important liquidation level turned prices away this April at $86-$87, right to the DAY's price level from the SPR liquidation level. The market has memory, but we need to mark this info on our charts so we remember too. Clearly you can see this powerful impact on the market and with patience and risk management, you can take advantage of setups like these to make profits or avoid losses. With the Presidential Election ongoing and tomorrow being the last day to vote, the market will begin to discount if Trump with will and encourage new supply of oil to help drive down the price further or will the shorts in oil turn and cover because the market doesn't break down fast enough? There are always risks in trading and hopefully by pointing out the "KEY NEWS LEVELS" we can avoid getting blind-sided by our emotions of fear and greed. There is a weekly uptrend in place from the low in September and if prices hold above $70, I expect continuation to the upside over the next 7 weeks. If prices fall and hold under $70, I will stand aside and look to buy lower in the SPR refill level range near $65-$64 (vs $71.53 last). I'll be in the Key Hidden Levels chat room discussing these charts and more every day. Cheers, Tim 3:21PM EST 11/4/2024
FX:USOILLong
by timwest
1
WTI CRUDE OIL: Strong rebound on the 18 month Support.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 53.224, MACD = -0.080, ADX = 22.753) as it rebounded again on the S1 Zone and already reached the 1D MA50. Even though another test of the S1 Zone is possible according to the multiple tests of the May-June 2023 pattern, the upside is more likely to happen eventually through a test of the 1D MA200. Our target is limited however below the LH trendline (TP = 77.50) as we don't yet have valid grounds to extend buying above it. ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
GOLD_119 2024.11.04 19:01:05 Trading Signal BUYFrankPro Signal for GOLD_119 Type: Screen Signal: BUY TP: 2759.99 SL: 2734.25 Entry Price: 2738.54 Analysis for GOLD Forecast Overall(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST= Strong Down LT= Strong Up Forecast Methods(Short-Term, Long-Term): ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(0) Based on the provided analysis, I will provide separate short-term and long-term predictions for the XAU/USD price. **Short-term (next few days):** The price is expected to be volatile due to the upcoming US presidential election and the Fed's rate decision. The technical analysis suggests that the price is currently finding support near the $2,730 demand area, and the 14-day RSI indicates revived buying interest. However, bearish signals, such as the Head and Shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart and a fake breakout on the daily chart, suggest potential selling opportunities. Given these mixed signals, I predict that the price will likely **stay the same** or experience a **slight decline** in the short-term, potentially testing the support level near $2,711. However, a breakout above $2,800 could signal continued growth. **Long-term (next few weeks/months):** The analysis suggests that gold prices continue to move within an ascending channel, indicating a bullish trend. Moving averages indicate pressure from buyers, and a rebound from the support line on the RSI could signal further price growth. The growth scenario suggests a potential target above the $3,175 level. Given this bullish outlook, I predict that the price will likely **go up** in the long-term, potentially reaching the $3,175 level or higher. However, a breakout below $2,475 would indicate a continuation of the fall. Please note that these predictions are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(1) Based on the provided analysis, here is my assessment of the expected price movement for XAU/USD (Gold) in both the short-term and long-term: **Short-term (next few days to a week)** * The price is expected to stay the same or experience a slight decline. The market is cautious ahead of the US presidential election and the Federal Reserve's policy announcements, which may lead to a temporary consolidation or a small pullback. * The support level near $2,730 is crucial, and if it holds, the price may rebound. However, if it breaks, the price could test the $2,718 or $2,700 levels. * The 14-day RSI indicates revived buying interest, but it's not strong enough to suggest a significant short-term uptrend. **Long-term (weeks to months)** * The price is expected to go up. The forecast suggests that gold may test the support level near $2,690 before rebounding and continuing its growth, with a target above $3,175. * A breakout above the $2,905 resistance area would confirm the growth scenario, and a successful breakout above $2,800 could lead to a test of the all-time high at $2,790. * The overall outlook is bullish, with the market expecting a continuation of the uptrend once the uncertainty surrounding the US election and Fed's policy announcements is resolved. Please note that these assessments are based on the provided analysis and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up Analysis Method(2) **Short-term Analysis (Next few days)** Based on the technical analysis and market context, I expect the gold price to remain volatile in the short-term, with a slight bias towards a pullback or correction. The 14-day RSI is near 60, indicating some buying interest, but the price is still below the $2,746 resistance level, which is the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of the recent rally. The key support levels at $2,730 and $2,718 are crucial, and a failure to hold above these levels could lead to a drop to around $2,711. Additionally, the market is cautious ahead of the US presidential election and the Fed's policy announcements, which could lead to price movements of at least $100 in either direction. **Prediction:** Short-term price movement: **DOWN** (with a target of around $2,711) **Long-term Analysis (Next few weeks/months)** In the long-term, the gold price is expected to continue its growth trend, with a potential target above the $3,175 level. The ascending channel and the 21-day SMA at $2,700 provide a strong support base for the price. However, the long-term outlook is highly dependent on the outcomes of the US presidential election and the Fed's policy decisions. A dovish Fed and a risk-off sentiment could lead to a surge in gold prices, while a hawkish Fed and a risk-on sentiment could lead to a correction. **Prediction:** Long-term price movement: **UP** (with a target above $3,175) Please note that these predictions are based on the available data and are subject to change as new information becomes available. Result: ST=Down LT=Up
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by orbborisson
OIL at this level to $72MODs have suggested that I provide more detail about the picks I make. Sorry. I'm not as verbose as y'all, and I don't like things to be complicated. My trading plan is very simple. I buy or sell at top & bottom of parallel channels. I confirm when price hits Fibonacci levels. Bonus if a TTM Squeeze in in play. I hold until target is reached or end of year, when I can book a loss. So... Here's why I'm picking this symbol to do the thing. Price near bottom of channels (period 100 52 39 & 26) Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) at oversold level VBSM is negative Price at near Fibonacci level Will enter small position at $67, again at $66ish and all in at $65 Target is $72 or channel top Stop loss is $64
TVC:USOILLong
by chancethepug
1
Gold Spot (XAU/USD) Bearish Continuation OutlookAnalysis Summary Lower High (LH) and Weak High: The chart shows a lower high (LH) formation, suggesting that sellers are gaining control and pushing the price down from each attempt to rally. The weak high near 2,762 remains untested, which could be revisited if there is a strong reversal. Supply Zones: Multiple red-shaded supply zones above the current price, especially around 2,750–2,754, indicate resistance areas where sellers have been active. These zones will likely act as barriers if the price retraces upwards, potentially providing opportunities for short entries. Change of Character (CHoCH): A CHoCH was observed at a previous support level, reinforcing a potential bearish trend shift and the likelihood of a continuation downward. Strong Low Support: The chart highlights a strong support level near 2,730, which may serve as a target if the bearish momentum continues. A break below this strong low could indicate further downside potential. Potential Scenarios: Bearish Continuation: Given the lower high and recent rejection from supply zones, the price is likely to continue its downward movement, aiming to test the strong low around 2,730. If this level is broken, it may accelerate the bearish move. Short-Term Retracement: If there is a short-term bullish pullback, the price could retest one of the supply zones above (2,750–2,754) before resuming its downward trajectory. This retracement could provide a more favorable entry for sellers.
PEPPERSTONE:XAUUSDShort
by SwiftSignalFX
XAU / USD ! 11/4! Downtrend - correction continuesXAU / USD trend forecast November 4, 2024 Gold price (XAU/USD) sees modest gains around $2,740 during early Asian trading on Monday, breaking a two-day losing streak. Safe-haven demand for gold may rise due to uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election and Middle East tensions. The upcoming US presidential election on Tuesday is a key focus this week. Analysts at JPMorgan suggest that any decline in gold prices, regardless of the election results, could be a buying opportunity. Gold price continues downtrend H1 - waiting for the US presidential election move and the decision to lower interest rates or not in November 2024 /// SELL XAU : zone 2747-2750 SL: 2755 TP: 50 - 120 - 200 pips (2730) /// BUY XAU : zone 2717-2714 SL: 2709 TP: 50 - 120 - 200 pips (2734) Safe and profitable trading
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Moon-ForexAcademy
3