Futures market
XAUUSD H4 | Bearish Continuation Based on the H4 chart, the price is rising toward our sell entry level at 3344.40, a pullback resistance.
Our take profit is set at 4365.47. a pullback support that aligns close to the 78.6% Fibo retracement.
The stop loss is set at 3381.54, above a swing high resistance.
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XAU.usd watch $3407/18: Key Resistance and end of "Wave B" ?Part of my ongoing analysis of Gold (see below).
Per the last plot, we bounced exactly where hoped.
We may well be at "Wave B" end point near $3400.
This is bears best and last chance to get a lower low.
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Last Plot that caught our bounces EXACTLY
Previous Plot called the last Dip Entry EXACTLY
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I will post updates on this Idea as price action progresses.
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Please follow and like, for more EXACT plots to use in your trading.
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Gold Price Analysis May 7Yesterday's D1 candle continued to be a FULL candle with a 100 price increase. At the beginning of the day, the market opened with a bearish price gap, showing that the market also wants to cool down and today.
Gold is sideways in the range and is running a corrective downtrend.
The support zone for BUY strategies is around 3371, this is the EMA 34 of the h1 frame and is partially supported by the trendline. The next notable area is 3352, which is the old candle wick area and also the support area of yesterday's European session.
The two SELL areas are around 3402 and the Gap opening area is 3423.
GOLD BUY SETUP The $3277:$3278 buy zone for gold could be attributed to several factors:
- *Support Level*: This price range might be acting as a support level, where gold prices find buying interest or bounce back. Traders might be looking to buy at this level, anticipating a potential price rebound.
- *Technical Analysis*: Buyers might be using technical indicators, such as moving averages or Relative Strength Index (RSI), to identify $3277:$3278 as a buying opportunity. Bullish signals or potential reversal patterns could be driving buying decisions.
- *Market Sentiment*: Shifts in market sentiment, driven by news or economic data, can impact gold prices. If sentiment is bullish, traders might be more inclined to buy at $3277: 3278$
Gold prices pulled back. Will prices continue to fall?Latest news: Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, which boosted market risk appetite; coupled with a sharp rise in the US dollar and US bond yields, gold prices plummeted in the Asian morning trading session.
US President Trump and British Prime Minister Starmer announced a "breakthrough agreement" on trade, which made market traders predict that the United States would also reach such an agreement with other countries. This prediction has made market buyers lose motivation.
Quaid believes that if the United States and China reach an agreement, gold prices will face great resistance to rise, and gold prices should fall back to $3,200/ounce.
Market trading analysis:
The upward trend of gold paused and started a sharp decline.
As described by the RSI, buyers are losing momentum. This is not good for gold, and the price has now fallen below $3,300/ounce. Quaid believes that it will continue to fall and may fall to the cycle low of $3,202/ounce.
Short-term trading strategy:
Short at 3280, stop loss at 3290, and take profit at 3260.
Quaid believes that if the price of gold falls below the downward resistance level of 3275, you can continue to hold your position and choose the right time to trade.
GOLD 30m Buy Setup | FVG + Fib Discount + Reversal Block🌟 GOLD (XAUUSD) Buy Opportunity | May 9, 2025 | 30m SMC Setup
This GOLD setup on the 30-minute timeframe presents a textbook Smart Money entry. We’ve got a deep retracement into the 61.8% Fibonacci level, clear Fair Value Gap (FVG) demand zone, and a sharp rejection wick + micro reversal block right at the zone.
🔍 KEY CONFLUENCES:
🔻 Deep Discount: 61.8% Fib zone
🟧 FVG block inside key institutional candle
🧱 Reversal block right before the reaction
💥 Aggressive price rejection at 3,297 zone
📈 Targeting premium levels ~3,369.6
🛡️ SL below 70.5% (~3,293.2) — safe under liquidity grab
📈 Setup Specs:
Timeframe: 30min
Direction: Long
Entry Zone: 3,302 – 3,303
TP: 3,369.6
SL: ~3,293.2
RR: Approx. 1:8+
💡 Trade Logic:
Smart Money engineered a sweep of local lows, then left an imbalance (FVG) as the market shifted. The 61.8% retracement + bullish wick combo confirms intent. The reaction is strong — we expect price to fill the inefficiency and target premium liquidity above.
🎯 Chart Ninja Tip:
“Where price pauses, Smart Money loads. Where it explodes, they’ve already finished.”
Gold: Bearish Trend Continues as Prices Retreat from HighsIn the gold market today, there has been a certain rebound, which is stronger compared to before. However, after the price soars, it quickly falls back, further confirming the overall bearish tone. During the US trading session, we decisively placed a short order at the price of 3360, and subsequently, the market plummeted as expected. Judging from the current trend, gold is still in a bearish trend of pulling back from a high level. If there is a rebound in the future, we can still seize the opportunity to go short.
Technically, the moving average of the one-hour level of gold has started to turn downward. During the US trading session, after gold soared, it immediately entered a mode of significant decline, and the trend highly coincides with expectations.
Nevertheless, there are two possibilities for the subsequent market: if there is a substantial rebound in gold, then the market is likely to maintain a pattern of large-range fluctuations; but if the rebound fails to break through the level of 3320, it is sufficient to indicate that the bullish momentum is weak, and at that time, gold is very likely to completely enter a unilateral bearish trend.
Therefore, in the subsequent US trading session, we should focus on the pressure-bearing situation when gold rebounds to the level of 3320. Once it is blocked here, we can place a short order at a high price and grasp the profit-making opportunity under the bearish trend.
XAUUSD
sell@3320-3325
tp:3300-3280
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
Gold Pullback Incoming!Gold has struggled to break through its daily highs for the past week. I am looking for another push up to the $3360-$3370 range. If it fails to break that level again, we may see support levels around $3200 being retested. In my opinion, there is even potential for it to go lower. I'd love to hear your thoughts in the comments!
*Side note:* With the U.S. dollar falling in value and ongoing economic uncertainty, I believe gold has tremendous upside potential over the next 12-18 months. FX:XAUUSD
May 8th Trade Journal & Stock Market AnalysisEOD accountability report: +463
Sleep: 6 hour, Overall health: :thumbsup:
I have been traveling the last few days and didn't have a chance to trade. just finally catching up on things again and getting hte videos out.
**Daily Trade recap based on VX Algo System**
— 10:20 AM VXAlgo ES X1 Buy signal (2x signal)
— 11:30 AM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
— 12:30 PM VXAlgo ES X1 Sell Signal (2x signal)
— 2:11 PM Market Structure flipped bearish on VX Algo X3!
— 3:00 PM Market Structure flipped bullish on VX Algo X3!
Next day plan--> Over 5650 = Bullish, Under 5650 = Bearish
Video Recaps -->https://www.tradingview.com/u/WallSt007/#published-charts
The buy low and long strategy is coming!From the 4-hour analysis, the support below is around 3308-3300. If it does not break, the main bullish trend will remain unchanged. The upper side pays attention to the short-term suppression of 3360-66. The daily level stabilizes above this position and continues to maintain the low-multiple rhythm.
Gold operation strategy:
1. If gold falls back on the 3325-3320 line, go long, and if it falls back on the 3310-3300 line, it will cover long positions. The target is 3355-3360.
Scalping Trade – Technical Analysis on Gold (1-Minute Timeframe)
In this brief analysis, we examine a scalping opportunity on Gold (XAU/USD) using the 1-minute chart, focusing on a short-term technical setup supported by both price action and indicators.
The chart displays a well-defined downward trend, confirmed by two descending red trendlines. These trendlines have been respected consistently by the price, indicating a strong bearish structure. At the time of analysis, the price action approached a key resistance zone around the 3,319 level.
This resistance is notable for two reasons: it represents a horizontal level tested multiple times, and it coincides with a descending trendline, forming a confluence that increases the probability of a price rejection. This dual-resistance scenario presents a compelling case for a short entry.
A sell position was initiated near this resistance area. The stop loss is placed above the resistance zone, near 3,325, to protect against a breakout. The take profit is set around 3,301, targeting a recent support level established by a strong previous low. This provides a clean technical target within the current structure.
Supporting this trade idea, both the MACD and Stochastic Oscillator are showing overbought signals and have begun turning downward, suggesting weakening bullish momentum and the potential for a bearish reversal.
The trade offers a risk-to-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.97, which is considered favorable in scalping strategies, where precision and timing are critical.
Bullish Airlines Cleared for Altitude!After squinting at the 4H chart like Sherlock with a caffeine addiction, I’ve confirmed: our price broke out of a flag pattern like it was tired of napping. It even did the polite thing—came back to retest—like, “Excuse me, just checking if I actually broke out. Yep. Cool.”
Now it’s back on its bullish treadmill, charging uphill like a gym bro after pre-workout.
As long as we’re above 3200, this beast might just pump harder than Bitcoin on caffeine and hopium.
🎯 Final destination? 161.80% Fib extension at 3580.22—aka “Mount Take Profit.”
Pack snacks. It’s a climb.
Retrace Complete...but we need 1 more Sweep on Gold!This pullback is what I waited for and it took all week for it to happen. Not sure if I will get the bullish move today being that it is Friday. But if they hit the level I'm looking for I will try at least once. Keeping expectations low since its the end of the week. but things are shaping out for us to have a STRONG bullish week next week.
USOILCurrent USOIL Price Drop (May 2025)
WTI crude oil (USOIL) has declined sharply in early May 2025, Key drivers include:
OPEC+ Surprise Supply Increase: OPEC+ announced plans to raise output in June, reversing earlier production cuts and flooding the market with additional barrels.
Tariff-Driven Demand Fears: U.S.-China trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs threaten global economic growth, reducing oil demand forecasts.
Dollar Strength: The U.S. dollar (DXY) has rebounded due to delayed Fed rate cuts and safe-haven demand, pressuring dollar-denominated oil prices.
EIA/Goldman Sachs Forecasts: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Goldman Sachs revised 2025–2026 oil price forecasts downward, citing oversupply risks and weaker demand.
Shifting Dollar-Oil Correlation
Historically, oil and the dollar were inversely correlated (strong dollar = lower oil prices). However, this relationship is weakening due to:
U.S. as a Net Oil Exporter: The U.S. is now the world’s largest crude producer. Higher oil prices improve the U.S. trade balance (vs. worsening it when the U.S. was a net importer).
Petrodollar Dynamics: As the U.S. exports more oil, revenue from oil sales strengthens the dollar, creating a positive correlation in certain scenarios.
Geopolitical and Policy Shocks: Tariffs, OPEC+ decisions, and Fed policy now dominate price action, overshadowing traditional correlations.
Future Directional Bias
Bearish Factors
OPEC+ Supply Surge: Increased production (post-June 2025) could push prices toward $50–$55/barrel (Goldman Sachs base case).
Recession Risks: Weak demand from China/Europe and U.S. tariff impacts may trigger a global slowdown, further depressing oil prices.
Dollar Strength: Fed rate cuts delayed until July 2025 or later could sustain dollar strength, capping oil’s upside.
Bullish Catalysts
Supply Disruptions: Escalating Middle East tensions or OPEC+ policy reversals could tighten supply.
Weaker Dollar: If the Fed signals rate cuts or tariffs ease, dollar weakness could lift oil prices.
Outlook:
USOIL faces downside risks in the near term due to oversupply and demand concern
Exogenous Shocks: Exogenous shocks to the U.S. real interest rate can cause a modest and short-lived decline in the real price of oil. Although there is a higher opportunity cost of holding inventories, oil inventories may increase, reflecting the decline in global real activity associated with higher U.S. real interest rate
0805 Gold buyers are not swayed by the Fed's rate decisionHello traders,
Fed's Hawkish Hold & Policy Deadlock (May 7 Meeting)
Rates unchanged, no cuts planned. Powell warned tariffs hurt inflation/employment, limiting Fed’s ability to ease.
Stalemate: Trump won’t drop tariffs; Fed won’t cut amid trade risks. Gold’s appeal weakens if rates stay high.
China-U.S. Tensions Escalate
Tariff talks stalled despite Swiss meetings. China’s rate cuts hint at preparing for worst.
Tech war: Trump may lift AI chip curbs to lock China out of global markets, diverting capital from gold.
Gold’s Outlook
Risks Up: U.S.-China breakdown or Fed panic-easing.
Risks Down: Tech truce or tariff U-turns.
Key: Watch politics (talks/Trump) over data. Gold’s moves hinge on policy shifts, not just rates.
On 4h chart, in the Asia morning, Gold was only slightly affected by Fed, but quickly stabilized above the EMA and regained upward momentum.
This could be a great chance to reenter open longing trade on GOLD with 3 targets marked on this chart.
GOOD LUCK!
LESS IS MORE!