Gold: Breakout and Potential retraceHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring XAUUSD for a selling opportunity around 3,340 zone, Gold was trading in an uptrend and successfully managed to break it out. Currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the retrace area at 3,340 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
Futures market
Gold GC1! heading to $3,476 next with a 4.15R long trade TVC:GOLD Gold/ COMEX:GC1! hit the 0.705 fib level right between the 0.618 and 0.786 what I like to call the sweet spot for fibonacci tools. If it misses the 0.618 then the 0.705 is just as good, signals are showing a bottom forming and slowly but sure the rsi is about to cross up over 50, it should pump hard this time
-4.15R trade
-1.5% capital risk
-as soon as gold starts to move, we'll drag our stop loss to or even past break even if it really pops up hard...
XAUUSD Technical Analysis – June 24, 2025On June 24, 2025, XAUUSD (spot gold) continues to face significant bearish pressure after failing to hold above the key resistance zone around 3,383 – 3,400 USD/oz. This area marks a confluence of the 0.5–0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels and a high-volume distribution zone, signaling strong supply dominance in the short term.
Technical Structure and Fibonacci Analysis
- The recent swing high was established at 3,451 USD, completing a bullish wave from the low of 3,223 USD.
- Price was unable to break through the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at 3,399 USD, leading to a sharp pullback.
- The current structure suggests the formation of a potential head and shoulders pattern, which would confirm if the market breaks below the 3,300 USD support zone.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
- Major resistance: 3,383 – 3,400 USD (Fibonacci 0.5–0.618 zone, high-volume area)
- Immediate support: 3,300 – 3,310 USD (historical reaction zone and 0.618 retracement of the recent bullish leg)
- Deeper support: 3,223 USD – previous swing low and a key target if the bearish trend confirms
Potential Scenarios
- Bearish scenario: If the price sustains below 3,350 USD and decisively breaks 3,300 USD, it may signal the start of a medium-term downtrend, with targets near 3,200 USD or even lower.
- Bullish scenario: A bounce from the 3,300 USD support could trigger a short-term recovery, but traders should closely watch the reaction near the 3,383 – 3,400 USD resistance zone to assess supply pressure.
RSI and Momentum Indicators
- The 14-period RSI is trading below the 50 level and pointing downward, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant.
- The RSI has also crossed below its moving average, reinforcing the negative outlook.
Ps: XAUUSD is currently in a critical phase as it tests the 3,300 USD support level. A break below this level could confirm further downside and strengthen the bearish trend. Traders are advised to remain cautious, wait for clear price action confirmation, and apply strict risk management as volatility increases.
Gold Spot / U.S. Dollar (1h Chart) - OANDA1-hour chart from OANDA shows the price movement of Gold Spot against the U.S. Dollar (XAU/USD). The current price is $3,323.720, reflecting a decrease of $45.480 (-1.35%) over the last hour. The chart includes a candlestick representation with a notable downward trend, a support level around $3,324.455, and a resistance zone between $3,352.955 and $3,360.000. The time frame displayed ranges from 12:00 to 3:00, with the data updated as of 12:52 PM PKT on June 24, 2025.
XAU/USD 15M CHART PATTERNHere's a summary of your XAUUSD (Gold vs. USD) trade setup on the 15-minute chart:
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📈 Trade Type: Buy
Entry: 3324
🎯 Take Profits (TP):
TP1: 3340
TP2: 3365
TP3: 3397
🛑 Stop Loss (SL):
SL: 3293
---
🧮 Risk-Reward Ratios (Approximate):
Target Profit (Pips) Risk (Pips) RR Ratio
TP1 16 31 1:1.94
TP2 41 31 1:1.32
TP3 73 31 1:2.35
---
✅ Notes:
Trend Confirmation: Make sure there is bullish momentum (e.g., break of a recent high, bullish candlestick pattern, or moving average crossover).
News Risk: Check economic calendar (e.g., USD news, Fed meetings) to avoid volatility surprises.
Manage Position: Consider partial take-profit at each level and trail your stop loss accordingly.
XAUUSD OANDASell scalp 3408-3418
• Trigger condition: price touches supply + appears Pin-bar/Bearish Engulf H15 with spike volume; DXY & US10Y do not decrease sharply.
• Entry 3408-3415 $, SL 3422 $, TP1 3400 $ (+6 $) → move SL BE; TP2 3390-3392 $ (+16 $).
2️⃣ Buy scalp 3332-3342
• Trigger condition: Hammer/Bullish Engulf M5-M15 at demand, volume dries up then increases; DXY does not break +0.2 %.
• Entry 3336 $, SL 3325 $, TP1 3346 $ (+10 $), TP2 3356-3360 $ (+20 $).
Cancel: H4 close > 3422 or < 3325; level 1 news (PMI, Fed) in 30 minutes.
Xauusd market update This chart shows a bullish setup for Gold (XAU/USD) on the 30-minute timeframe as published on June 24, 2025. Here's a quick breakdown:
🔍 Key Elements:
Current Price: ~$3,323.63
Strong Support Zone: ~$3,297–$3,323 (highlighted in yellow at the bottom)
Immediate Resistance Zone: ~$3,390–$3,410
Upper Target/Resistance: ~$3,430–$3,440
🧠 Analysis Insight:
The price recently tested the lower support zone and bounced off sharply.
A bullish reversal is anticipated with an upward projection marked by the blue arrow.
The setup suggests a long (buy) position is favored from current levels (~$3,323) with targets around the previous supply zone ($3,410–$3,430).
✅ Bullish Confirmation Factors:
Double-bottom–like formation at support
Strong historical support zone held
Sharp V-shape recovery projection
⚠️ Risk Area:
Stop loss likely sits just below the support at around $3,297.
Invalidates the idea if price breaks and sustains below this level.
Let me know if you'd like help with a trade plan or backtest for this idea.
XAUUSD Breaks Trend – Deeper Correction Ahead?Gold (XAUUSD) has just broken below its rising H4 trendline and the key support zone around 3,340 – a strong signal for a potential short-term downtrend. A sharp bearish candle with high volume confirms sellers are now in control.
The 3,360–3,365 zone has flipped into resistance and may act as a retest area before further declines.
If price fails to hold 3,320,
the next targets are 3,300–3,280,
possibly down to 3,260.
Volume Profile indicates money is leaving the upper range, reducing the chance of a strong rebound.
Preferred strategy: wait for a pullback to 3,355–3,365,
set SL above 3,370,
and aim for TP at 3,300–3,280.
Caution: the Fed’s “higher for longer” stance and USD strength are applying pressure on gold. Long positions are risky at this stage. Monitor the 3,300 level closely for potential buyer reaction.
Are you ready for the next wave of gold market?Gold fell back as expected after opening high. Today's strategy arranged long orders at 3350-3352, and successfully closed the market at around 3362 with profit. The subsequent three short orders also closed the market at a profit as expected. The points were perfectly predicted, and the long and short positions were perfectly grasped during the day. The strategic ideas were disclosed in advance and all were fulfilled.
At present, the overall trend of gold is still bullish, and it is in the adjustment stage in the short term. The large range this week is 3340-3405. Although there is a rebound, the upward pressure is still not small, and the gold price may continue the wide range of long and short fluctuations. Pay attention to the 3355-3340 area below. In terms of operation, long orders are arranged according to the strength of the retreat; pay attention to 3385 in the short term above. If it can effectively break through, look at 3395-3405. The strong pressure is still at the 3405 line. If it does not break, it will still fall under pressure. On the contrary, if it stabilizes, it is expected to hit last week's high.
Operation suggestion: When gold falls back to around 3355-3340, long orders can be arranged in batches, with the target at 3370-3380. Short orders will be adjusted according to the real-time market, please pay attention to the bottom 🌐 notification for specific points.
Gold May be going to correction IF...What will gold be worth in 2030?
Gold price prediction overview:
Year ----Gold price prediction
2025 ----$2,410 to $3,265
2026 ----$2,800 to $3,805
2027 ----$3,400 to $4,400
2030 ----Peak price: $5,155
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Gold – Daily Trading Plan (Tuesday 24 June 2025)Risk-off demand fading:
A Middle-East cease-fire headline knocked some “safe-haven” premium out of Gold overnight.
Firm USD & higher-for-longer Fed stance: Dollar strength keeps metal under pressure.
Spot reference: 3 325 $/oz at 09:30 CET after an Asian-session sweep to 3 316 $.
A) Short on pull-back
Action : Sell 3 340–3 350 $ (FVG cluster + trend-line retest)
SL : M15 close > 3 360 $
TP : 3 316 $ → 3 300 $ → 3 285 $
B) Momentum continuation
If price fails to rally above 3 334 $ and prints a fresh bearish engulfing M15
Invalidation : Micro high > 3 335 $
Target : Same downside ladder
C) Bullish rescue (low-prob)
Clean break & H1 close above Asian High 3 357 $ + fill of H1 FVG
Invalidation : H1 close > 3 368 $
Target : 3 390 $ / 3 405 $
As long as 3 357 $ caps any rebound, bias stays short-side, favouring sell-the-rally opportunities into the 3 340s with room down to the psychological 3 300 $ handle (and 3 285 $ extension).
Flip to neutral/long only on an H1 closure above 3 360 – 3 368 $.
XAU / USD 2 Hour ChartHello traders. Happy Tuesday. I got up in the middle of the night and as I take a look at gold's progress with the overnight sessions, I have marked my current area of interest for potential scalp trades in either direction. I will be waiting for Pre NY volume to come in to see if we correct any moves made during the Asian and London sessions. Big G gets all my thanks. Let's see how the next current 2 hour and 4 hour candle's close. Be well and trade the trend.
Bearish Wave Builds Below Key ETH Supply ZoneFenzoFx—Ethereum failed to break above $2,813.0 and is now trading around $2,430 after trimming nearly 5.0% of recent losses.
The $2,687.0 area, backed by the 50-period SMA, acts as a premium supply zone. A bearish wave could follow, targeting $1,779.0, supported by prior monthly lows and RSI divergence.
The bearish outlook is invalidated if ETH/USD closes above $2,813.0.
Gold Outlook: Bullish Bias Builds🧠 Combined Market Intelligence Report
Focus Asset: XAU/USD (Gold/USD)
Current Price: $3,381.65
🌍 Macro Overview: Key Weekly Market Themes
🏦 Central Bank Policy Divergence
Federal Reserve: Held rates steady; Powell struck a more cautious tone. Seven members now forecast no cuts in 2025. Rate cut probability softened early in the week, then revived after Fed Governor Waller hinted at a possible July cut.
Swiss National Bank (SNB): Cut rates to 0.00%, surprising markets and signaling potential for negative rates if needed.
Bank of Japan (BOJ): Maintained rates at 0.50%, slowed bond tapering, signaled caution amid trade and inflation uncertainty.
ECB & BOE: Mostly neutral/dovish tones. ECB may cut in 6 months; BOE remained split.
🧩 Implication: Diverging monetary paths and policy uncertainty support demand for neutral reserve assets like gold.
⚔️ Geopolitical Risk: Israel-Iran Conflict
Markets opened bullish on gold due to de-escalation signals from Iran, but risk-off sentiment returned midweek after:
Trump’s “unconditional surrender” demand
Iran’s “irreparable damage” threat
Reports of possible U.S. strikes
By Friday, Trump hit “pause” for 2 weeks of diplomacy.
🧩 Implication: Geopolitical tension is unresolved. Gold remains a top safe-haven hedge as military conflict risk persists.
📉 Macro Data Weakness
U.S. Retail Sales: -0.9% (vs. -0.4% expected)
U.S. Industrial Production: -0.2%
Philly Fed Manufacturing: -4.0
UK Retail Sales: -2.7% m/m
Eurozone Wage Growth: 3.4% y/y (missed expectations)
Australia Jobs: -2.5k (vs. +15k expected)
🧩 Implication: Global slowdown signals strengthen gold’s appeal as a defensive and inflation-hedging asset.
📊 Technical Outlook for XAU/USD (Gold)
🔹 Current Price: $3,381.65
🔸 Key Indicators (1D)
Indicator Value Signal
RSI 55.65 Slightly bullish (>50)
Stochastic %K / %D 51.23 / 53.33 Neutral zone
Williams %R -44.18 Mid-range, no strong signal
Bollinger Mid-Band 3,381.55 Price = BB midline (balance point)
Keltner Mid-Channel 3,381.94 Matching price (consolidation)
📍 Key Price Levels
Support: $3,360 → $3,345
Resistance: $3,410 → $3,430
Breakout Point: Close above $3,410 confirms upside momentum
Breakdown Point: Close below $3,360 confirms renewed selling pressure
📈 Forecast for Gold (XAU/USD) – Next 1–5 Days
🔮 Fundamental Bias: 🔼 Mildly Bullish
Unresolved geopolitical tension = sustained safe-haven flows
Global economic softness = pressure on real yields
Mixed Fed tone, SNB cut = supportive macro backdrop for gold
📉 Technical Bias: 🔁 Neutral to Bullish
RSI above 50, price above major midlines = buyers still in control
Consolidation at key pivot level ($3,381) suggests accumulation, not exhaustion
If price breaks above $3,410 and sustains, rally toward $3,430–3,460 is likely
If price breaks below $3,360, watch for a retest of $3,345–3,330 support zone
🎯 Final XAU/USD Forecast Summary
Time Frame Direction Price Targets Confidence Risk Catalyst
1–2 Days 🔁 Sideways-to-Bullish $3,390 → $3,410 Moderate News on Fed, Trump-Iran
3–5 Days 🔼 Bullish $3,430 → $3,460 High Breakout + geopolitics
Bearish Case 🔽 If < $3,360 $3,345 → $3,330 Moderate Peace deal + strong USD
⚠️ Trade Considerations
If bullish breakout (> $3,410) → potential swing trade toward $3,460
If failed breakout (< $3,360) → reversion trade toward $3,330
Avoid aggressive positions until volatility picks up, as current setup is range-bound with breakout potential.
The Support and Resistance outlined in green and red are the respective support/resistance for this pair currently for 1M-1Y timeframes!
No Nonsense. Just Really Good Market Insights. Leave a Boost
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you Influencing Factors on Gold Prices:
- Geopolitical Factors:
Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which will greatly ease tensions in the Middle East. The market's safe-haven demand triggered by the Israel-Iran conflict will drop significantly, and investors' safe-haven buying of gold will correspondingly decrease, thus exerting downward pressure on gold prices. Historical experience shows that when there was an expectation of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, gold prices once fell significantly due to the reduction in safe-haven demand.
- Market Expectation Factors:
Although Fed Governor Bowman hinted at a possible rate cut in July, which is positive for gold, the impact of the ceasefire news may be more direct and significant. Currently, market expectations for a Fed rate cut remain uncertain—CME data shows the probability of a rate cut in July is only 8.3%. In this context, the cooling of risk aversion triggered by the ceasefire may temporarily dominate the trend of gold prices, causing gold to face correcton pressure.
- Technical Aspects:
Before the ceasefire news emerged, gold prices fluctuated in the range of $3,350-$3,395, with $3,350 providing certain support and $3,400 serving as the upper resistance level. It is expected that after the ceasefire news is announced, gold prices may test the support at $3,350. If the support fails, they may further fall to around $3,300.
Today's gold trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
XAUUSD sell@3365~3355
SL:3380
TP:3345~3330
Gold Short Term OutlookYesterday’s chart idea is playing out as analysed.
Gold failed to break above the $3,395 resistance and has now pulled back, currently testing the first support zone — aligned with the 4H 200MA and Daily 50MA.
If this area fails to hold, price is likely to head toward the next key support zone, where we expect a potential reaction.
To resume bullish momentum, we need to see a strong close above $3,346. Key bullish zones remain $3,375 and $3,395.
📌 Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
$3,375 • $3,395 • $3,418 • $3,439
Support:
$3,361 • $3,346 • $3,330 / $3,306
$3,287 – Critical demand zone
🧠 Fundamental Focus:
All eyes are on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony today, which may offer clues about the Fed’s rate outlook and inflation stance. Any hint of continued hawkishness could weigh on gold, while dovish commentary may trigger renewed upside interest.
Expect heightened intraday volatility around his remarks — stay cautious.
6.24 Strategy after the sharp drop in gold6.24 Strategy after the sharp drop in gold
After Iran launched a retaliatory strike against the United States on the 24th, the United States chose to cease fire and did not expand the conflict. The market's risk aversion sentiment quickly fell, suppressing the price of gold.
Yesterday, the price of gold fluctuated violently. Although there was a rebound, the overall trend was still weak. The price of gold failed to effectively break through the previous key resistance of 3400 after multiple upward explorations, indicating that the upward movement was weak and the market's short-selling pressure continued to increase.
At present, the price has fallen below the important support level of 3330. If it cannot recover quickly in the future, 3316 will still not be the end point in the future market.
In terms of operation, it is recommended to short on the rebound and go long at low levels
BUY: around 3320
SL: 3315
TP: 3335
SELL: around 3340
SL: 3351
TP: 3290
Thank you for your attention. I hope my analysis can help you.
GOLD (XAUUSD) – Daily Outlook for June 24, 2025Sunday’s open saw Gold gap nearly 200 pips due to rising US-Iran tensions, but the move was quickly filled as headlines cooled off. Despite the initial volatility, Gold has now broken its intraday bullish trend, closing below 3344.03.
I’m now expecting a potential test of the higher timeframe bullish trendline that has held since December 2024. If price taps into that zone, I’ll look for high-risk/high-reward buys at 3274.00.
Trade Setup:
HRHR Buys: 3274.00
Safe Buys: Break & hold above 3380.00
Safest Buys: Break above 3428.00
Bearish Bias: Below 3230.00 only
Until then, it’s a waiting game as we track structure and momentum.
GOLD: In a Very Complex ScenarioGOLD: In a Very Complex Scenario
Gold remains in a highly complex scenario, as price action appears disconnected from current news events.
The absence of bullish volume is concerning and suggests a lack of conviction in the market.
A significant move may unfold precisely when it's least anticipated.
You may watch the analysis for further details
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️