Could we be entering another phase of gold consolidation?Gold's impressive rally from 2023 to 2025 completed the two-fold formation of the cup-and-handle pattern.
Notably, while gold would typically rally in response to heightened geopolitical tensions—such as the Israel-Iran conflict and the B2 bombing of nuclear power plants—it has instead shown resilience by retreating and displaying minimal sensitivity to these events. This unexpected behavior suggests that gold may be entering a consolidation phase despite the prevailing uncertainties.
As a Tier I asset under Basel III regulations, gold remains a fundamentally strong investment and is expected to resume its upward trajectory, reaching new all-time highs post-consolidation. The $2,800–$3,050 range presents a favorable entry point for market participants.
Futures market
XAUUSD maintaining the falling pattern H4 Timeframe Analysis
Gold is currently holding the falling wedge pattern on H1 & H4 and Market has to lift up at range of 3380-3285.
What's possible scanarios we have?
As we have seen h4 candle closes above 3280-3285 then keep buying and eyes at 3305 then 3320 milestone also I'm holding my buy positions.
On the otherhand if The H4 candle closes below 3280-3275 then buying will be limited and market will join the 3250 zone.i will sell accordingly .
Additional TIP:
Above 3280-3285 keep buy
Below 3275 keep sell
#XAUUSD
GOLD 1. Final GDP q/q
Actual: -0.5%
Forecast: -0.2%
Previous: -0.2%
The US economy contracted by 0.5% in the first quarter, worse than the expected 0.2% decline, indicating a sharper slowdown than anticipated.
2. Unemployment Claims (Week ending June 21)
Initial Claims: 236,000
Forecast: 244,000
Previous: 245,000
Initial jobless claims fell by 10,000 to 236,000, lower than forecast and near historically low levels, suggesting that layoffs remain relatively subdued despite economic challenges.
Context:
Despite the drop in new claims, continuing claims (people receiving ongoing benefits) rose to about 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021, indicating some softening in the labor market. Economists expect the unemployment rate to edge up slightly to around 4.3% in June from 4.2% in May.
3. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025)
Actual: +0.5%
Forecast: +0.1%
Previous: +0.2%
Core durable goods orders, which exclude transportation, rose 0.5% month-over-month, beating expectations and signaling some resilience in business investment.
4. Durable Goods Orders m/m (May 2025)
Actual: +16.4%
Forecast: +8.6%
Previous: -6.3%
Total durable goods orders surged 16.4%, a strong rebound following a prior decline, indicating a pickup in demand for long-lasting manufactured goods.
5. Final GDP Price Index q/q (Q1 2025)
Actual: 3.7%
This measure of inflation in the GDP deflator remains elevated, reflecting persistent price pressures in the economy.
Summary of Market Implications:
The larger-than-expected GDP contraction signals economic weakness, which could increase expectations for accommodative Fed policy.
The drop in initial jobless claims supports the view that layoffs are limited, but rising continuing claims suggest some labor market softness ahead.
Strong durable goods orders point to underlying business investment strength, providing a mixed but cautiously optimistic outlook.
Elevated inflation as shown by the GDP price index keeps inflation concerns alive.
Overall, the data presents a complex picture of a slowing economy with pockets of resilience and ongoing inflationary pressure.
#GOLD
XAUUSD: Market Analysis and Strategy for June 26Gold technical analysis
Daily chart resistance 3400, support 3295
4-hour chart resistance 3370, support 3312
1-hour chart resistance 3350, support 3328
The gold market has recently shown strong resistance to decline, showing signs of stopping the decline and stabilizing for two consecutive trading days. The low point of the hourly chart is gradually moving up. This positive signal further consolidates the support of the market bottom. Today's opening price is around 3330, and the highest point of the oscillation upward is 3350. The recent volatility has decreased. In the NY market, we will focus on today's opening price of 3330 as the dividing line between long and short. If it falls below this position, the lowest target can be seen near 3312. Before that, you can do scalp buying transactions above 3330.
Buy: 3330near
Buy: 3312near
GOLD - SHORT TO $2,800 (UPDATE)Here's an update from my video analysis yesterday. Gold buyers climbed up towards our sell zone of $3,350 last night, where we closed out our intra-day buy's at £2,500 profit.
Gold sellers so far have rejected that resistance zone & dropped down 400 PIPS! If price can hold steady below this zone we can see much more downside to come. But a break above that zone could push price back up towards $3,400 again.
Gold Breakout Done New Short Entry Valid To Get 200 Pips !Here is my opinion on gold at he moment , in 15 mins T.F wr have a fake breakout but 3343.00 forced the price to go down which is a great res for this pair and we have avery good bearish price action and good closure below my res level 3341.00 so it`s my num 1 place to enter a sell trade if the price go back to retest it , and if not , 3383.00 will be my best place to sell it .
Gold Distribution I missed the perfect entry for this distribution model, but since the technical target hasn't been reached yet, I'll look for valid entries if they arise. The time displacement is good, it swept internal liquidity and left more to the downside. It looks more like a trend than a range deviation, so I'll be cautious with this trade if I take it.
SILVER: Bulls Are Winning! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse SILVER together☺️
The recent price action suggests a shift in mid-term momentum. A break above the current local range around 36.463 will confirm the new direction upwards with the target being the next key level of 36.640 and a reconvened placement of a stop-loss beyond the range.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold is challenging ATHGold meets resistance at 3,440 on Friday, despite a surge in geopolitical risks amid the Iran-Israel war. We expect the market to have a correction before rising to all-time highs.
The ideal ATH level is 3,650
What we want to see to achieve ideal level ?
The market rebounded from the POI level driven by a strong bull signal.
The market break and retest the last high at 3,500.
If the market reverses sharply after breaking 3,500, all the above scenarios will be invalid and a false breakout pattern will occur.
Fundamental level that you should pay attention:-
The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision will be announced next week, and investors expect Powell to keep interest rates unchanged.
The Iran-Israel war could intensify geopolitical risks in the Middle East. If tensions escalate further, we expect gold price to surge.
The Federal Circuit will appeal Trump's tariffs as an abuse of presidential power on July 31, 2025
GOLD: Target Is Down! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse GOLD together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 3,342.22 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 3,336.36..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Gold trend analysis and operation ideasPowell reiterated his hawkish stance at the hearing on June 26, emphasizing the lack of progress in inflation but hinting that the trade agreement may lead to a rate cut, making it clear that "the vast majority of FOMC members support a rate cut this year" and retaining the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut, pushing up expectations for a rate cut in September to 74%. Policy expectations repeatedly supported the rebound of the US dollar index to the 106 mark to suppress gold prices, but low real interest rates still provide long-term support. Although Trump announced a comprehensive ceasefire between Iran and Israel on June 23, the terms of the agreement are asymmetric and the conflict continues - Israel launched air strikes on Iran's dAO ammunition depot, the US Department of Defense assessed that the strike would only delay the nuclear process for several months, and Iran suspended IAEA cooperation. Goldman Sachs warned that the escalation of the conflict may cause oil prices to soar to $85 per barrel, coupled with Israel's death threats against senior Iranian officials, the geopolitical risk premium continues to support gold prices.
The 4-hour technical pattern is repaired, the short-term moving average diverges upward, and the K-line stands firm on the moving average support and fluctuates upward. In the short term, pay attention to the breakthrough of the 3350 pressure level and the confirmation of the European and American market retracement. The daily price stabilizes at the 3300 support level, and the downward momentum is weakened. The overall pattern of fluctuations is maintained. Be vigilant about the short-term adjustment risk after continuous highs. In terms of operation, it is recommended to arrange short orders in batches in the 3347-3352 area, and strictly stop loss and take profit.
Operation strategy:
It is recommended to short gold when it rebounds to 3347-3352, with a stop loss at 3360 and a target of 3330-3320
XAUUSD: Gold's Inflationary Tug-of-WarXAUUSD: Gold's Inflationary Tug-of-War – Navigating Powell's Remarks & Key Levels
Hello TradingView community!
Let's dive into Gold (XAUUSD) today, as its price action continues to be shaped by the Federal Reserve's (Fed) cautious stance on inflation and interest rates. Recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell are particularly noteworthy.
🌍 Macroeconomic Drivers: Tariffs, Inflation, and Fed's Deliberation
The market finds itself in a complex situation following key statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell:
Powell indicated that substantial tariffs could trigger a prolonged wave of inflation, potentially moving beyond conventional economic models. This introduces a new and significant factor into the inflation outlook.
Despite recent inflation moderation, Powell stressed the necessity of more data from June and July before considering any rate cuts. This underscores the Fed's cautious approach and lack of immediate urgency.
He also cautioned about the risk of "price shocks turning into persistent inflation".
In this environment, where market sentiment is stretched between hopes for rate cuts and the emerging risk of tariff-driven inflation, Gold maintains its role as a crucial psychological anchor. Should the Fed be slow to react to this potential new inflationary pressure, Gold's appeal could intensify.
📊 XAUUSD Technical Analysis & Trading Plan:
Based on the XAUUSD charts (H4/M30 timeframe) you provided (e.g., image_008403.png): Gold is currently undergoing a corrective or consolidating phase after a notable pullback. The price is trading below shorter-term moving averages, suggesting either bearish momentum or an accumulation phase.
Key Resistance Zones (Potential SELL Areas):
3,352.383 - 3,353.860: An immediate resistance point, coinciding with the 0.5 Fibonacci level.
Higher up: 3,391.750 - 3,395.000: This represents a very strong previous peak and a major resistance barrier.
Key Support Zones (Potential BUY Areas):
3,317.738 - 3,311.214: An intermediate support area, close to the 0.236 Fibonacci level.
3,302.939 - 3,302.857: A strong demand zone, aligning with the recent low.
Further down: 3,286.257: This is the next significant support level if preceding zones are breached.
🎯 XAUUSD Intraday Trading Plan:
Here are our refined zones and targets for today's trading:
BUY SCALP:
Entry: 3316 - 3314
SL: 3310
TP: 3320 - 3324 - 3328 - 3332 - 3336 - 3340
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 3304 - 3302
SL: 3298
TP: 3308 - 3312 - 3316 - 3320 - 3330 - 3340 - 3350
SELL SCALP:
Entry: 3353 - 3355
SL: 3360
TP: 3350 - 3345 - 3340 - 3335 - 3330
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 3390 - 3392
SL: 3396
TP: 3386 - 3382 - 3378 - 3374 - 3370 - 3360
⚠️ Key Factors to Monitor:
Fed Official Speeches: Any new comments from Fed officials regarding inflation or monetary policy outlook.
US Economic Data: Upcoming inflation (CPI, PCE) and employment reports (NFP) will be crucial for policy expectations.
Geopolitical Developments: Ongoing global tensions consistently bolster Gold's safe-haven appeal.
Trade wisely and always manage your risk effectively! Wishing everyone a profitable trading day!
Possible target ~$1800Platinum is breaking out on weekly and daily time scale our of ascending triangle and channels with big volumes.
multiyear breakout possible with high certainty as geopolitical situation will change the things for long as low trust environment (which is not new) but now with attack on Iran, and Ukrain Russian prolonged war and support to Ukraine by many big countries will change the relation for long, specially high tech items, metals and minerals.
Target based on rounding bottom pattern for multiyear breakout. In future it can surpass gold given its ornamental value and almost zero metal loss due to scratching over time.
Gold Drops on Israel-Iran CeasefireGold prices declined as safe-haven demand eased following President Trump’s announcement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. Despite the pullback, gold remains up nearly 23% year-to-date, supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainty driven by Trump’s tariffs, and robust central bank purchases.
Market Focus:
All eyes are now on U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony, which may offer fresh insights into potential near-term interest rate cuts.
Technical Outlook:
Gold remains under bearish pressure as long as it trades below the 3329–3339 pivot zone.
A confirmed 4H candle close below 3329, or especially 3309, would further validate downside momentum toward the support range.
Support Levels: 3302, 3281, 3256
Resistance Levels: 3364, 3393
A clear break below 3302–3281 would open the path toward deeper bearish continuation.
Trading FOMC (short idea)FOMC is coming and we have been stuck in this range for a few days. expect a volatity during the news a spike. both sellers and buyers of the range be aware that news could spike on both sides.
For me, I target for short, because Jerome is my grandpa. Joking.
Short Entry : 3403
SL : 3413
TP 1 : 3311
TP 2 : 3223
TP 3 : 3060
XAUUSD Holds to Decline as Weakness DollarXAUUSD GOLD Outlook – Gold Holds Firm Amid Dollar Weakness and Fed Uncertainty
Gold continues to trade steadily as the U.S. dollar weakens and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policy intensifies. Market speculation is growing following hints that former U.S. President Donald Trump may announce a new Fed Chair as early as September or October.
This development could undermine current Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s influence, potentially shifting the monetary policy outlook. As a result, investor sentiment remains cautious, with many seeking refuge in gold amid the growing ambiguity in central bank direction.
A weaker dollar generally boosts demand for gold, and if speculation around Fed leadership continues, XAUUSD could remain supported or even rally further. Watch for upcoming Fed speeches and political announcements as key drivers.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance zone 3340 / 3345
Support Level 3315 / 3300
Ps Support with like and comments for more analysis Thanks.
GOLD 15M STILL LOOK WEAK AND READY FOR CORRECTION CONTINUATIONIm looking to sell this on 15m time frame
I wait for 1 of this scenarios to play out before i go in
First scenarios
-Possible RE-TEST 3341.50 AREA I have pending SELL here with SL 3350.50
Second scenarios
-Break of 3326.50 I will go in on BREAK OUT with SL 3335.50
I will prefer the first scenarios but let see what Market gave us today
Thanks and Holaaa
Happy Wednesday