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4/1 Gold Analysis & Trading SignalsThe combination of fundamental influences and technical patterns led to a sharp surge in gold prices after the market opened yesterday. The upward momentum only slowed during the New York session, but prices remained above 3100. However, after this rally, the technical setup is not particularly favorable for bulls. That said, if fundamental factors continue to support the market, any technical pullback could provide another buying opportunity for bulls. Key Considerations: 🔸 Besides technical factors, we need to monitor geopolitical tensions—if the situation eases, demand for gold as a safe haven could decrease. 🔸 If tensions escalate further, gold is likely to rise, making it unwise to blindly short the top. Instead, we should adjust our trading strategy based on market developments while using technical patterns for entry and exit points. 🔸 If a pullback occurs, support is seen around 3109. 🔸 If the price continues upward, given current market conditions, a single rally is unlikely to exceed $30, so the first resistance zone is estimated at 3136-3145. Trading Strategy for Today: 📈 Buy in the 3111-3101 range 📉 Sell in the 3135-3145 range Stay flexible, follow the market closely, and adjust strategies accordingly. Let me know if you need further insights!
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by China_MsWang
XAUUSD:Adhere to the strategy of selling at high levelsI have consistently adhered to the strategy of shorting gold. Today, after the gold price spiked upwards, it showed a pattern of being under pressure. The price reached a peak of 3149 and then pulled back. After fluctuating during the U.S. trading session, it continued to decline. Currently, it has broken below the intraday demarcation level of 3120, which in the short term indicates that the bullish trend has temporarily come to an end, and a retracement and adjustment trend has started. This is also the risk that has been repeatedly highlighted. One should not be blindly carried away by the bullish sentiment and should always maintain a sense of reverence for the market. In the early morning, when the price tested the resistance level around 3135, short positions could be initiated. Now, the price has plummeted rapidly to the resistance level of 3100. It is estimated that most long positions have been stopped out, but we have still achieved the take-profit. In the subsequent trading, focus on the resistance level around 3130. If this level is not breached, one can continue to chase short positions. XAUUSD Trading Strategy: sell@3130 TP:3110-3100
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDShort
by LeoBlackwood
XAUUSD SHORTXAUUSD short again, 9yr high for Gold and still holding on to my shorts. another day, another entry. Setting my position at 3138 // TP 3000 SL 3238 A lil discouraged with the current rallies, however, this is what trading is like, you take your L's, gather your emotion, recalculate and execute again(when you're less emotional). Sticking to my Short positions because I believe that this will reverse, it may take a while but im willing to wait. Setting my TP to my previous target to cover previous losses and SL a lil bit further to secure my positions. This isnt a trading or financial advice but my personal trading plan. Let's see how this trade rolls. Day 14of100 L:5 W:1
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by delrosariohanan
Silver (XAG/USD) Rising Wedge Breakdown – Bearish SetupMarket Overview & Context Silver (XAG/USD) has been in a strong uptrend, forming higher highs and higher lows over the past few weeks. However, recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum as a bearish Rising Wedge pattern emerges. This technical pattern often signals a possible trend reversal or correction. This analysis focuses on a 4-hour (H4) chart, which provides a medium-term perspective for traders. The market has recently encountered a strong resistance zone, and multiple price rejections indicate a potential downward move. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation The Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that occurs when the price moves higher within two converging trendlines. This structure suggests that while buyers are still in control, their momentum is weakening. Key Characteristics of the Rising Wedge in This Chart: Uptrend with Weakening Momentum: The price has been rising, but the higher highs are becoming less aggressive. The slope of the highs is flatter compared to the lows, which indicates declining bullish strength. Converging Trendlines: The price is getting squeezed between support and resistance. This tightening range typically precedes a breakout, with a higher probability of a bearish breakdown. Bearish Implications: A breakdown below the wedge’s lower trendline confirms bearish sentiment. The price could drop sharply toward the next major support level if sellers gain control. Key Technical Levels & Trading Strategy 1️⃣ Resistance Zone (Supply Area) – $34.50 to $34.60 The price has repeatedly tested but failed to break above this zone. This confirms that sellers are active in this area, leading to multiple rejections. A strong supply zone, making it an ideal stop-loss placement for short trades. 2️⃣ Support Level (Demand Area) – $30.50 to $30.60 This level has acted as major support in previous price action. If the breakdown occurs, this is the primary downside target for sellers. 3️⃣ Stop Loss – $34.61 Positioned just above resistance to minimize risk exposure. Ensures that if price moves against the trade, losses are contained. Trading Plan & Execution 📉 Short (Sell) Setup – Bearish Breakdown Expected ✅ Entry: A confirmed breakout below the rising wedge’s support trendline (~$33.50 - $33.80). ✅ Stop Loss: Placed slightly above $34.61, ensuring risk control. ✅ Target: $30.56, aligning with previous support zones and technical projections. Risk-Reward Analysis Entry at breakdown (~$33.50) Stop loss (~$34.61) – Risk: ~1.1 points Target (~$30.56) – Reward: ~2.9 points Risk-to-Reward Ratio: ~1:3, making this a highly favorable short setup. Confirmation Signals to Watch Before Entering a Trade 📉 Break and Retest of Support as Resistance If price breaks below wedge support and retests it as new resistance, it strengthens the bearish case. 📉 Volume Spike on Breakdown A sharp increase in volume when breaking support confirms strong selling pressure. 📉 RSI Divergence (Bearish Signal) If the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows lower highs while the price makes higher highs, it suggests momentum weakness and a pending breakdown. Potential Trading Scenarios 📌 Bearish Scenario (High Probability) – Breakdown Confirmation If the price breaks below the wedge’s lower trendline and closes below $33.50, it will likely accelerate downward toward $30.56. Traders should enter short positions and hold for the target while managing risk with stop-loss levels. 📌 Bullish Scenario (Low Probability) – Invalidating the Pattern If the price breaks above $34.60 and holds, the rising wedge pattern is invalidated. This would signal continued bullish strength, and traders should avoid short positions. Conclusion & Final Thoughts ✅ The Rising Wedge Pattern suggests a potential bearish reversal in Silver (XAG/USD). ✅ If the price breaks the lower trendline, a drop toward $30.56 is highly probable. ✅ Traders should wait for confirmation signals before entering a trade. ✅ Risk management is crucial, with a stop-loss above $34.61 to minimize exposure. 🔹 This setup presents a strong risk-to-reward opportunity, making it ideal for traders seeking short positions in Silver.
OANDA:XAGUSDShort
by GoldMasterTrades
Gold adjustment continues to riseFrom the 1-hour gold chart, overnight gold closed at around 3123, with a starting point of 3076 and a high of 3128. The US session bottomed out and rebounded to a low of 3100, and retested the low of 3111 in the early morning. ​Today's Asian session continued to rise to around 3148, with a starting point of 3119. The current trend fell back. But it did not break the upward trend line. The overall structure is still running strongly. Intraday key points: top and bottom conversion support 3128 - 3125, and the upper potential channel upper rail top pressure 3155 - 3157. In terms of operation, it is still mainly long: 1. Extremely strong strategy: that is, if it fluctuates in the range of 3128 to 3110 after midnight, it will go long on dips when the Asian session retests the low point, or break 3128 to chase long. 2. European trading strategy: split positions to go long near 3132-33, 3125-28, and adjust positions to exit if it breaks 3119. 3. Oscillation strategy: European trading breaks the watershed 3119 and turns to oscillation to go long. Pay attention to the support of 3111-3110 and 3100. Whether you can make a long decision on the spot, be cautious to go long if the European and US tradings fall. 4. Pressure risk reminder: above 3156-57, you can consider shorting, and if the speculative loss breaks 3165, adjust positions to exit. 5. Risk event: Trump will announce equal tariffs. If it meets or exceeds expectations, the price of gold is expected to rise again; if the policy is relaxed, the price of gold may usher in a substantial adjustment.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Wealth-Helmsman
GOLD - Day Trading with RSI 04/02/2025 Weekly and Daily Timeframes (W & D): GOLD is still in an uptrend, as the RSI's WMA45 is still hovering near the 70 level, and RSI remains above both of its moving averages. H4 Timeframe: This timeframe is currently showing a correction. However, it's not yet considered a downtrend because the WMA45 is still in the high region, close to the 70 level. But, RSI has dropped below the WMA45. At present, the RSI on H4 is facing dynamic resistance from the WMA45 above and has support around the 4x level (43-48). The corresponding temporary price levels are approximately 3128 (resistance) and 3088 (support). This end-of-uptrend correction on H4 could lead to high price volatility. GOLD may move within a 300–400 pip range (between the resistance from WMA45 and the RSI support around the 4x zone). H1 Timeframe: Currently in a downtrend, as RSI is moving below both of its MAs, and the WMA45 has a noticeable downward slope. H1 also has RSI support at the 30 level (temporary price ~3086) and resistance at WMA45 above (temporary price ~3130). Since we’re focusing on intraday trading, priority is given to the H1 trend. Figure 1 Trading Plan: SELL Entry Zone: When RSI on M15 approaches upper resistance: levels 50–55 or 65–70. Confirm Entry: Conservative/Safe approach: when M5 ends its uptrend and reverses (see example in Figure 1 – M5 ends uptrend when RSI crosses below both MAs). Or when bearish divergence appears on M5. Or even earlier, when there’s divergence on M1 and M5's WMA45 flattens out. Stoploss: 20–30 pips above M5’s recent peak. Or if RSI on M5/M15 breaks through its previous high. Take Profit: 100 pips or R:R >= 1:1. Or when M5’s downtrend ends (when RSI crosses above both MAs). You can check out the indicators I use here: www.tradingview.com
FX:XAUUSDShort
by dangtunglam14
Gold setup (XAU/USD) Chart analysis Gold (XAU/USD) Scenarios *Market Overview:* - Gold is currently trading around *$3,132.70*, maintaining its upward trajectory. - The price remains *above key moving averages* (7, 21, and 50 EMA), signaling ongoing bullish strength. *Critical Price Levels:* - *Resistance Zone ($3,140-$3,145):* Price has tested this level but hasn’t managed to break through convincingly. A strong move above could open the door for further gains. - *Support Area ($3,127-$3,130):* Holding above this region is crucial for buyers to maintain control. - *50 EMA ($3,110.38):* Acts as a dynamic support; a drop below this level may indicate weakening momentum. *Potential Scenarios:* 🔹 *Bullish Outlook:* - A *decisive breakout* above *$3,145* could accelerate gains, pushing towards *$3,160-$3,170*. - Increased buying pressure with strong volume would reinforce the uptrend. 🔻 *Bearish Outlook:* - If Gold *fails to hold support* at *$3,127, we might see a pullback towards *$3,110** (50 EMA). - A break below *$3,110* could shift sentiment, potentially leading to a dip toward *$3,070-$3,080*. *Final Thoughts:* Gold remains *bullish* but needs to clear resistance for further upside. If support holds, buyers may push higher; otherwise, a retracement could be in play.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSD
by elitetrader9090
Gold (XAUUSD) 15-Minute Chart Analysis: Bullish Setup with Key SGold (XAUUSD) 15-Minute Chart Analysis Key Technical Indicators: Current Price: $3,122.28 30 EMA (Red Line): $3,115.90 (Short-term trend indicator) 200 EMA (Blue Line): $3,081.17 (Long-term trend indicator) Support Zone: Around $3,106.62 Target Point: $3,154.02 Analysis: Trend: The price is in an uptrend, as it is trading above both the 30 EMA and 200 EMA. The 30 EMA is acting as dynamic support, showing strong buying interest at pullbacks. Key Levels: Support: $3,106.62 (marked in blue) is expected to hold as a key support level. Resistance Zone (Previous Supply Area): Around $3,090-$3,100 (shaded purple) was previously a resistance zone but has now turned into support. Target Level: $3,154.02 is the expected bullish target if the price respects the support zone. Trade Setup: Bullish Scenario: The price may pull back to the support zone (~$3,106.62) before bouncing higher towards the target. Stop Loss: Below $3,106.62 to minimize risk. Entry Point: A retest of the support area with bullish confirmation could provide an optimal entry for a long trade. Risk Management: Stop Loss: Set just below the support zone. Reward-to-Risk Ratio: Favorable if targeting $3,154.02 with a stop at $3,106.62. Conclusion: The chart suggests a bullish outlook, with price expected to continue its upward momentum if support holds. A breakout above $3,123 could further confirm bullish strength. Caution: If the price breaks below $3,106, further downside movement toward the 200 EMA ($3,081.17) is possible.
CAPITALCOM:GOLDLong
by EA_GOLD_MAN_COPY_TRADE
Gold Blows Past 50-Year Channel — New Supercycle Target $4200Original post + 75,000 pips see below Intra trade idea + 46,000 pips see below Gold has officially broken out of its long-term rising channel, confirming a macro expansion phase. With geopolitical tensions (Russia-Ukraine, Middle East, Taiwan), central bank buying at record levels, and Bitcoin showing signs of a breakdown, gold is being revalued as the ultimate safe-haven. Fibonacci extensions from past cycles point to a third major all-time high between $4,270 and $4,600. We remain long and expect continued institutional rotation from crypto to gold as macro risks intensify. This move appears to be part of a larger historical pattern where each major gold bull market has topped at the -1.414 Fibonacci extension — a level that aligns closely with $4,270. BTC, meanwhile, is showing early signs of correction due to extreme mining difficulty, potential miner capitulation post-halving, and rising macro uncertainty — suggesting capital is flowing back into more traditional hard assets. We’ll monitor how the April open plays out, but with the technicals, fundamentals, and macro narratives all aligning, gold’s breakout seems far from over. 📍Gold has printed one of its most aggressive quarterly candles in history, currently trading around $3,117 — a full breakout above the long-standing macro trend channel, confirming a decisive phase shift in the market. 📍This breakout is not a wick or deviation — Gold has broken clean through the upper boundary of its decades-long rising channel, invalidating the idea of a return to mean and instead pointing to an acceleration phase. 📍Previous all-time highs in Gold have aligned closely with the -1.414 Fibonacci extensions of major bull runs. The first major top (1980) and the second (2011) respected this exact Fib level. Projecting that logic forward, the current structure suggests a third ATH around $4,270 (-1.414), with further upside possible toward $4,608 (-1.618). 📍The March 2025 candle is extremely strong — nearly a vertical move — and while a small short-term pullback is possible depending on April’s open, the longer-term picture remains undeniably bullish. 📊 Technical Outlook: ✅ Breakout above long-term macro channel = structural shift. Re-entry into the channel is highly unlikely at this point. ✅ Major Fib levels ahead: $3,582 (-1.0), $4,270 (-1.414), $4,608 (-1.618). ✅ Gold is showing repeating expansion behavior from prior cycles, with historical confluence at Fibonacci projections. 📍Key Support Levels: ❗ $2,948 – Now flipped to support (-0.618 Fib) ❗ $2,609 – Deeper support (-0.414 Fib), unlikely to be retested unless macro conditions shift 📍Key Resistance Levels: 🎯 $3,582 – Next technical barrier (-1.0 Fib) 🎯 $4,270 – Targeted 3rd ATH (-1.414) 🎯 $4,608 – Macro extension (-1.618), likely terminal point of current cycle 🌍 Fundamental & Geopolitical Context (as of March 2025): 🛑 1. Rising Global Tensions Fueling Safe-Haven Demand The Russia-Ukraine war shows no sign of de-escalation, with new reports indicating increased mobilization on both sides. Simultaneously, conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has intensified, spilling over into broader regional instability in the Middle East. U.S.-China tensions have also resurfaced after Taiwan conducted military exercises and received advanced weaponry from Western allies, provoking responses from Beijing. Trump's renewed political presence and rhetoric on “America First” policies, combined with potential NATO withdrawal, have created uncertainty about future global order. All of this is driving institutions, central banks, and retail investors alike into hard assets like gold — the original safe haven. 📈 2. Central Banks Are Buying Gold at Record Levels 2024 saw the largest central bank gold purchases in history, led by China, Russia, and emerging markets seeking to de-dollarize. The trend has continued into Q1 2025, with multiple central banks publicly declaring increased gold reserves. This structural shift in reserves policy underpins gold demand even during minor pullbacks. 📉 3. Bitcoin Facing Pressure – Gold Poised to Outperform? Bitcoin mining difficulty is at an all-time high as we approach the April 2025 halving. Margins for miners are shrinking rapidly. Many publicly listed mining firms are capitulating or reducing operations — hash rate divergence suggests instability. With interest rates still elevated and risk assets under pressure, Bitcoin is struggling to maintain its highs. Technicals on BTC suggest a correction from current ~$70K levels down to $50K, potentially driven by miner distribution, ETF rotation, and lack of momentum. This has caused a relative rotation from crypto risk assets back into traditional inflation hedges like gold. 🛢 4. Inflation, Oil, and Economic Instability Oil has broken above $100 again amid Middle East instability, feeding back into global inflation concerns. The U.S. economy is showing signs of stagflation: stubborn inflation with weakening job growth. The Fed remains hawkish due to CPI persistence, making liquidity tighter — typically gold-positive. 📉 Bearish Scenario: ❌ Only a breakdown below $2,948 would indicate failed structure. This would put gold back inside the channel, negating the breakout — but with current macro tailwinds, this appears extremely unlikely. ⚡ Summary & Alignment: 🔹 Technicals: Massive breakout above channel + historical Fib extensions imply $4,270–$4,600 targets. 🔹 Fundamentals: War, inflation, de-dollarization, and central bank demand all reinforce gold’s bullish case. 🔹 Bitcoin Weakness: Mining costs + halving + macro pressures = BTC to $50K risk, leading capital rotation into gold. 🔹 Geopolitics: Global uncertainty at multi-decade highs — gold thrives on instability. 📈 Outlook: Extremely Bullish for Gold As fiat volatility, geopolitical instability, and crypto fragility intensify, gold continues to assert its role as the ultimate store of value. Technically and fundamentally, it is aligned for a macro push toward $4,270–$4,600 over the coming quarters. Original idea: Intra idea: Tags: gold, XAUUSD, commodities, forex, technicalanalysis, fibonacci, breakout, macro, geopolitics, safehaven, bitcoin, goldpriceforecast
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Who-Is-Caerus
XAUUSD-GOLD can still break upward ? read captionGold (XAU/USD) has just soared to a new all-time high, reflecting heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties. The surge comes as global markets react to inflation concerns, geopolitical tensions, and shifting monetary policies, further strengthening gold’s position as a premier store of value. With central banks increasing their reserves and investors seeking stability, the precious metal continues to shine, marking a historic moment in the financial markets.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by SadarExplore
Nasdaq updated forecast with sell-side & buy-side targetsNQ futures aiming at 18900 level off these last highs. Now seeing developing weakness... expecting sellers to take it down for one more low as we approach the implementation of Trump's tariffs on 4/2. Look for renewed buyer strength after the next set of lows as we approach the next FOMC rate decision into first half of May 2025. This is a great swing trade setup for TQQQ, if desired, or long dated in-the-money QQQ call options.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by DaveTradesLive