This week's market review and next week's market strategy analys
Gold trading has ended this week. This week can be said to be very exciting. It closed with a positive line this week, with the lowest point near 3247, and then rebounded to 3365 and then retreated. When the non-farm data were all negative, the lowest point fell to 3311 and rebounded. Gold did not fall below the support of 3300. This shows that the gold bulls are still there. We also went long at the bottom many times after the non-farm data. I believe that traders who follow me can see that we have publicly gone long at 3324 many times and exited with all profits. We firmly believe that the retracement is an opportunity to go long, and the market result is just as I analyzed. The bulls returned to the range before the non-farm data. Since the market is closed on Friday for Independence Day, the overall fluctuation of gold will not be large. We will continue to be bullish on gold next week, and the operation will continue to be mainly based on retracement and long. If your current gold operation is not ideal, I hope I can help you avoid detours in your investment. Welcome to communicate with me.
From the 4-hour analysis, pay attention to the 3324 support line below, focus on the 3316 support line, and pay attention to the 3345-50 short-term resistance above, and focus on the 3365-70 line suppression. The overall low-multiple cycle participation main tone remains unchanged. In the middle position, watch more and do less, be cautious in chasing orders, and patiently wait for key points to participate. I will release signals on the free channel for specific operation strategies, and pay attention in time.
Gold operation strategy:
Gold 3324-30 line long, stop loss 3315, target 3365-70 line, continue to hold if broken
Futures market
Silver Futures Rally: Riding the Upper Bollinger Band
Price is riding the upper band, a classic signal of strong bullish trend continuation.
Strong support near $34.50–$35.00 (prior consolidation zone and Bollinger midline).
Psychological support at $36.00 which was broken and now may act as support-turned-resistance.
BANKNIFTY LOVERS Ready towards 60000 + ?/ ( SHORT TERM IBANKNIFTY 30 Mins counts indicate a bullish wave structure.
Both appear to be optimistic, and this index invalidation number is 56910 ( 30 Mins closing)
target are already shared as per implus move
Investing in declines is a smart move for long-term players.
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Market next target 🔄 Disruption Analysis:
📌 Current Scenario:
Price is trading around 3,336.400, just below the identified resistance zone (~3,340-3,343).
A range-bound structure is visible with repeated rejections at resistance and support.
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🚨 Disruption View:
❌ Invalidating Bearish Bias:
The chart assumes a bearish move toward the 3,320 target, but there are early signs of strength near the mid-range (3,335 area).
Failed breakdowns and higher lows indicate buying pressure below 3,330.
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🟢 Alternative Disruption Outlook (Bullish Flip):
If price breaks and holds above 3,343 resistance, we may see:
🔼 Upside breakout toward 3,355–3,360 zone.
📈 Continuation of the larger uptrend from July 1st rally.
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🔁 Key Disruption Levels:
Support: 3,328–3,330 (interim zone to watch before full drop)
Resistance: 3,343–3,345 (bullish breakout point)
Invalidation of Bearish Bias: Closing above 3,345 on strong volume.
XAUUSD Going To Fly SoonGold price regains positive traction and reverses a part of Thursday’s upbeat NFP-inspired losses. US fiscal concerns weigh on the USD and lend support to the commodity amid trade uncertainties. Holiday-thinned liquidity might hold back the XAU/USD traders from placing fresh directional bets.
Stronger NFP puts a lid on goldGold bounced quite strongly on 30 June from around $3,250 the week before that as traders monitored the debate around the American tax and spending bill and its likely effects on the deficit. However, 3 July’s stronger than expected NFP seems to have capped gains for the time being. Further implementations of tariffs has continued to be chaotic.
While there’s no definitive evidence yet that the main uptrend has ended, it certainly seems to have paused for now and been replaced by a short to medium-term sideways trend. 15 May brought a lower low intraday but $3,250 seems to be established as a fairly strong support since then, tested unsuccessfully twice at the end of May and June.
Resistance is less clear: $3,450 seems to be a likely area of reaction but this is approximate. ATR has declined fairly consistently since peaks in April and May but might now be bottoming out while volume is also relatively low now compared to the average early last quarter. The value area between the 20 and 50 SMAs is the main technical reference for now; whether the short-term direction is up or down seems to depend mainly on news, especially American politics.
This is my personal opinion, not the opinion of Exness. This is not a recommendation to trade.
Gold fluctuates near the resistance point, and the short positioSpot gold rose slightly in the European session on Friday (July 4), currently trading around $3,333/oz, up about 0.37%, and is expected to record a considerable increase of nearly 2% on a weekly basis. Behind this wave of gold price increases is the smooth passage of the massive tax cut and spending bill promoted by US President Trump in Congress, which has caused market concerns about the US fiscal situation. At the same time, the continued weakness of the US dollar index has further helped the rise in gold prices. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold continues to be supported by bargain hunting.
Despite the continued rise in gold prices, physical gold demand in major Asian markets has been sluggish. Due to high prices, consumer purchasing interest has significantly weakened. In India in particular, the reduction in gold imports has led to a narrowing of the market discount. The weak demand in the Asian market is in sharp contrast to the risk aversion in the global financial market, highlighting the complexity of the current gold market. On the whole, fiscal concerns caused by the US tax cut bill, the weakening of the US dollar and the potential impact of Trump's tariff policy are jointly driving the upward trend of gold prices. The attractiveness of gold as a safe-haven asset is increasing, especially against the backdrop of increasing global economic uncertainty. In the future, as tariff policies are gradually implemented and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy becomes clearer, the gold market may have more opportunities to rise.
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DIESEL OIL GOES 'STILL-RUNNING', AND IT IS NOT A MEME AGAINDiesel Oil NY Harbor ULSD December 2025 futures contracts are trading around $2.25/gallon, once again above its 52-week average, with recent technical ratings indicating a strong buy.
The market has shown a 4.50% rise in the past 5-Day time span, reflecting bullish momentum.
Fundamental Perspective
Supply: Distillate inventories are 20% below the five-year seasonal average, the lowest since 2022. Refinery utilization is high at 94.7%, leaving little buffer for disruptions.
Demand: Distillate consumption has risen to 3.794 million barrels per day, up 260,000 b/d year-over-year, driven by robust industrial activity and summer travel.
Geopolitics: A U.S.-brokered ceasefire in the Middle East has reduced immediate supply risks, but the situation remains fragile and could quickly change.
Macroeconomic Risks: While fundamentals are bullish, potential U.S. recession risks and data reporting delays add uncertainty. Monitoring GDP growth and manufacturing PMIs is crucial.
Summary
ULSD futures are technically strong and fundamentally supported by tight inventories and robust demand, but traders should remain vigilant for macroeconomic and geopolitical shifts.
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Best wishes,
@PandorraResearch Team 😎
Gold-Silver Discrepancy Analysis – Reevaluation After NFP ReactiAfter taking a loss yesterday, I had to reassess my outlook on Gold. The market behavior leading into and following the NFP event revealed significant discrepancies between Gold and Silver that can’t be ignored.
Since April 24th — the day Gold printed its highest price in human history — the daily chart has shown consistent lower low formations. In contrast, Silver had been forming higher highs on the daily during this same period, showing relative strength.
However, this dynamic began to shift. On the 4-hour chart, Silver is now printing lower lows from last month’s high, aligning more closely with Gold, which has been bearish on both the daily and 4-hour timeframes since its peak.
A key moment occurred just before the NFP release: Silver made a strong run above last week’s high, while Gold failed to even trade above Wednesday’s high — which coincides with the gap fill from last week Tuesday’s open. This divergence in price behavior is crucial.
Gold closed yesterday with a full-bodied bearish engulfing candle, rejecting that same gap area. Meanwhile, Silver’s breakout above last week’s high, despite its internal weakness, is a clear discrepancy of value.
Now, with Silver beginning to shift into lower low structure on the daily and no bullish market structure shift present on the 4-hour chart, the bullish narrative weakens. This divergence between both metals—especially as Silver shows signs of internal breakdown—suggests a high-probability case that the market may be preparing for a broader downside move rather than continuation to the upside.
That said, the key level at 3225/3200, which I marked during my previous bullish outlook, remains on watch. Price reaction at this zone will be critical in determining whether the market still has a chance to reclaim bullish intent or if the short bias continues to play out. If the bearish pressure holds, 3120 becomes a likely target—and a deeper fall toward 2960 wouldn’t be surprising either, considering it aligns with a key discount zone from the weekly timeframe.
7.4 Gold shocks7.4 Gold shocks
Yesterday, the gold price plummeted, but did not fall below 3310. We have analyzed before that the bulls have the advantage above 3300. From yesterday's performance, we can see that the bulls are still in a dominant position.
Today is the last day of this week. At present, the gold price has not fluctuated much and is fluctuating in the range of 3320-3345. The fact that it can still fluctuate under the negative data shows that the bulls are strong and there is a high probability that it will rise next week.
Next, we will shift our focus to the tariff situation on July 9. If there is no definite intelligence report that it has been negotiated, then gold will still be the first choice for safe haven. If the tariff situation becomes tense, then the gold price may form a unilateral rise. If the situation eases, then the gold price may rise and then fall back.
Today, it is recommended to buy near 3320, with a stop loss at 3300. The target is 3340.
If my analysis can help you, I hope you can cheer me up and give me a thumbs up.