Futures market
Silver sideways consolidation support at 3500Silver – Technical Analysis
The Silver price action continues to exhibit a bullish sentiment, underpinned by a prevailing rising trend. However, recent intraday moves indicate a corrective pullback, reflecting short-term consolidation within the broader uptrend.
Key Technical Levels:
Support:
3,500 – Primary support and previous consolidation zone; critical for maintaining bullish structure.
3,450 – Secondary support; potential downside target if 3,500 fails.
3,390 – Key lower support; aligns with a broader demand area.
Resistance:
3,720 – Immediate upside resistance; first target on a bullish bounce.
3,790 – Intermediate resistance; aligns with recent swing highs.
3,850 – Long-term resistance target; marks the upper boundary of the current bullish channel.
Scenario Analysis:
Bullish Continuation (Base Case):
A bounce from the 3,500 level would affirm the corrective pullback as temporary, with potential for a bullish continuation targeting 3,720, followed by 3,790 and 3,850 over a longer timeframe.
Bearish Reversal (Alternative Scenario):
A daily close below 3,500 would undermine the current bullish outlook and signal a deeper retracement, with downside risk toward 3,450 and potentially 3,390, where structural support may stabilize price.
Conclusion:
Silver remains structurally bullish, with the current pullback offering a potential entry point within the trend. The 3,500 level is the key pivot—holding above it supports further upside continuation, while a breakdown below would raise the risk of a deeper correction. Traders should watch for price action confirmation at this level to validate the next directional move.
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XAU/USD 30 June 2025 Intraday AnalysisH4 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
You will note that price has targeted weak internal high on two separate occasions forming a double top which is a bearish reversal pattern. This is in-line with HTF bearish pullback phase.
Remainder of analysis and bias remains the same as analysis dated 23 April 2025.
Price has now printed a bearish CHoCH according to my analysis yesterday.
Price is now trading within an established internal range.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to trade down to either discount of internal 50% EQ, or H4 demand zone before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,500.200.
Note:
The Federal Reserve’s sustained dovish stance, coupled with ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, is likely to prolong heightened volatility in the gold market. Given this elevated risk environment, traders should exercise caution and recalibrate risk management strategies to navigate potential price fluctuations effectively.
Additionally, gold pricing remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic developments, including policy decisions under President Trump. Shifts in geopolitical strategy and economic directives could further amplify uncertainty, contributing to market repricing dynamics.
H4 Chart:
M15 Analysis:
-> Swing: Bullish.
-> Internal: Bullish.
On H4 TF price has been failing to target weak internal high, therefore, it would not be unrealistic if price printed a bearish iBOS.
The remainder of my analysis shall remain the same as analysis dated 13 June 2025, apart from target price.
As per my analysis dated 22 May 2025 whereby I mentioned price can be seen to be reacting at discount of 50% EQ on H4 timeframe, therefore, it is a viable alternative that price could potentially print a bullish iBOS on M15 timeframe despite internal structure being bearish.
Price has printed a bullish iBOS followed by a bearish CHoCH, which indicates, but does not confirm, bearish pullback phase initiation. I will however continue to monitor, with respect to depth of pullback.
Intraday Expectation:
Price to continue bearish, react at either M15 supply zone, or discount of 50% internal EQ before targeting weak internal high priced at 3,451.375.
Note:
Gold remains highly volatile amid the Federal Reserve's continued dovish stance, persistent and escalating geopolitical uncertainties. Traders should implement robust risk management strategies and remain vigilant, as price swings may become more pronounced in this elevated volatility environment.
Additionally, President Trump’s recent tariff announcements are expected to further amplify market turbulence, potentially triggering sharp price fluctuations and whipsaws.
M15 Chart:
Gold price bull-bear life and death line--3300Gold price bull-bear life and death line--3300
Gold rose in the Asian session today
Buy on dips and technical rebound:
Last Friday (June 28), gold fell 2%, hitting a low of $3247/ounce. Some investors believed that it was oversold in the short term and bought on dips during the Asian session.
Key support level of $3,270:
From a technical perspective, there is a concentrated area of institutional buying near $3,270, which will trigger a short-term rebound.
Near $3,300 is still a strong resistance range.
Although Powell maintains a hawkish stance, the market is still betting on a rate cut in September (with a probability of more than 90%), and the decline in the US dollar index supports gold.
As shown in Figure 4h:
The current fluctuation range of gold price: 3240-3300, with a fluctuation range of nearly 60 US dollars
Short selling strategy:
Sell: 3295-3300 range
Stop loss: 3305
Target: 3280-3270-3250
Buy 1: 3250 (conservative)
Buy 2: 3270 (stable)
Buy 3: 3280 (aggressive)
Stop loss: 3240
Target: 3300-3320+
It is recommended to pay attention to the long-short strength dividing line near 3300
Standing at 3300, the market will continue to rise this week
As long as the gold price is below 3300, take a high-altitude mentality
WTI OIL TRADING IDEA 1 JULY 2025WTI Crude Oil is currently trading around $64.77, following a recent rejection from the $76–78 resistance zone. This area represents a strong supply zone and coincides with the upper boundary of a long-term descending channel, indicating institutional selling pressure. From a Smart Money Concepts (SMC) perspective, this move appears to be a liquidity grab above previous highs, where price tapped into a bearish order block before aggressively reversing. Price action confirms this bearish sentiment, with a visible rejection and bearish engulfing candle suggesting that sellers are defending the region aggressively.
On the supply and demand side, the $76.77–78.30 zone is the immediate supply zone, while the next key resistance above lies between $79.37 and $93.94. On the downside, demand lies at $58.69–64.00, with major demand and liquidity resting around $55.00 and $51.79. Fundamentally, the recent spike in oil prices was largely driven by heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly renewed conflict concerns between Iran and Israel. However, as no direct disruption to oil supply has occurred, the geopolitical risk premium is now being priced out. Additionally, concerns over global demand, especially from China and Europe, along with a gradual and controlled U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) refill, are putting downward pressure on prices despite OPEC+ maintaining output cuts.
Based on this analysis, the trade idea favors a bearish swing setup. A short position around $64.00–66.00 could be considered, targeting $58.69 as the first take-profit level, followed by $55.00 and $51.79 for extended targets. The stop loss should be placed just above $78.50 to allow room beyond the supply zone and trendline. This setup offers a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:3. However, if price breaks and holds above $78.50, it may signal a structural shift toward bullish momentum, likely driven by unexpected geopolitical escalation or a change in OPEC strategy. In such a case, the bias should flip to bullish, with potential targets around $89.00–93.00.
XAUUSD H1 I Bearish Drop Based on the H1 chart analysis, we can see that the price is trading near our sell entry at 33192, which is a pullback support.
Our take profit will be at 3297.07, a pullback support.
The stop loss will be placed at 3350.85, which is a swing high resistance.
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Gold Wave Analysis – 30 June 2025
- Gold reversed from support level 3250.00
- Likely to rise to resistance level 3400.00
Gold recently reversed up from the support level 3250.00 (which stopped wave (b) at the end of May, as can be seen from the daily Gold chart below) intersecting with the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the upward impulse from May.
The support level 3250.00 was further strengthened by the upward-sloping support trendline from February.
Given the clear daily uptrend, Gold can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 3400.00, which stopped the previous short-term correction ii.
Bitcoin UpdateWe’re back looking at the #Bitcoin chart. While BTC stays above the 55-day MA (currently at 101,116), we remain overall bullish. But here’s the catch:
🔍 What I’m watching:
• The MACD is still below zero — no clear buy signal yet.
• The RSI is encouraging (above 50), but…
• 📉 No surge in volume = caution.
• DMI also not giving a strong green light.
👉 So, we might need more consolidation before the next leg higher. Patience is key!
If BTC clears these highs?
🎯 I’d target ~114,000 (top of the long-term channel since 2021).
For now, staying positive but waiting for that volume confirmation. 💪
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XAUUSD Analysis – June Monthly CloseGold starts the week with a weak bounce attempt after a strong bearish momentum on Friday, which pushed the market below the key 3254 support. The downtrend structure remains valid with a clear pattern of lower highs and lower lows on the 4H chart.
At the moment, price is trapped inside the 3254–3295 range. Despite the strong bearish pressure, we have yet to see a meaningful correction after the sharp drop on June 28th. This opens the door for a potential intraday pullback to test minor supply and moving average resistance near 3291–3297.
However, today is monthly candle close, which means increased volatility and possible false breakouts—especially during US sessions. Traders should be cautious with breakout traps, especially around 3305–3310, where stop hunting might occur.
The bigger picture still favors the bears unless gold manages to break and hold above the descending trendline and the EMA cluster.
📌 Trade Setup (Short Bias – Intraday Correction)
SELL zone: 3291 – 3297
SL: 3303 (Above supply & EMA test zone)
TP1: 3278
TP2: 3255
TP3: 3215
This is not a high-conviction swing setup but a tactical short based on potential rejection from previous supply and dynamic resistance. Small lot size is recommended due to the wider stop-loss and low R/R reward unless high volatility plays in our favor.
📊 Key Intraday Levels
R3: 3342
R2: 3322
R1: 3295
Pivot: 3254
S1: 3214
S2: 3180
S3: 3123
"BREAKOUT ALERT! XAU/EUR Bear Raid – Get In Before The Drop!"🤑 GOLD HEIST ALERT! 🚨 XAU/EUR Bearish Raid Plan (Thief Trading Style) 💰🔥
🌟 Greetings, Market Pirates & Profit Snatchers! 🌟
Based on the 🔥Thief Trading Strategy🔥, we’re plotting a high-stakes bearish raid on XAU/EUR ("The Gold Market"). Our mission? Short the breakout & loot the downside!
🎯 TRADE SETUP (Scalping/Day Trade)
Entry (Sell Zone) 📉: 2841.00 – Wait for Neutral Level breakout, then strike!
Pro Tip: Place sell-stop below support or sell-limit on pullback (15-30min TF).
Set an ALERT! Don’t miss the breakout moment.
Stop Loss 🛑:
"Stop right there, cowboy! 🤠 If you’re entering on a sell-stop, DO NOT set SL before breakout!
Thief SL Rule: Nearest swing high (30min TF) – Adjust based on your risk & lot size.
Rebels, be warned – stray at your own peril! 🔥
Target 🎯: 2815.00 (Lock profits & escape like a pro thief!)
💡 WHY THIS HEIST? (Bearish Triggers)
Technical Setup: Oversold bounce? Trap. Strong bearish reversal brewing.
Fundamentals: Macro risks, COT data, geopolitics – Gold’s under pressure!
News Alert 🚨: High-impact events ahead! Avoid new trades during news – trail stops to protect gains.
💥 BOOST THE HEIST! 💥
Like & Boost this idea to strengthen our robbery crew! More loot = more winning trades. Stay tuned for the next heist! 🚀💰
⚠️ Disclaimer: Trade at your own risk. This is not financial advice – just a strategic raid plan. Manage risk wisely!
Gold Slides Further as Market Risk Eases and Inflation LoomsGold Slides Further as Market Risk Eases and Inflation Looms
Gold continues to extend its downward momentum for the second consecutive week, sliding from 3451 to 3283—a decline of nearly 4.85% in just 10 days.
Today, all eyes are on the U.S. inflation data. While the broader market reaction remains uncertain, gold appears particularly vulnerable to further downside pressure.
The temporary ceasefire between Israel and Iran, coupled with advances in the U.S.-China trade talks, has eased geopolitical tensions, diminishing the immediate appeal of safe-haven assets like gold.
Even if prices rebound toward 3300 or even 3350 in a deeper pullback, the overall trend remains bearish.
PS: This analysis assumes normal market conditions and excludes the influence of potential manipulation.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day
Previous analysis:
GOLD BUY + SHORT TRADE IDEA Buy Signals !
We Are Looking For Buy trade Reasons : Consolidating Upto Demand Thats We Are Looking For A Bullish Move to Supply Zone
Buy Zone : 3269-3263
Targets : 3300/3325
SL : 3255
Sell Signal !
We Are Looking For Best Sell Trade Reasons : Order Block H1 + H4 Thats We Are Take Sell With Best Entry With High Target Sell Side Liquidity
Sell Zone : 3327-3334
Target Sell Side Liquidity - 3245-3250
SL 3345
XAUUSD: We must adapt to the market conditions! Bears in ChargeGold prices dropped as Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, causing a significant decline. We anticipate this trend to persist, as recent price data, including volume and price momentum, indicates a strong seller’s control in the current market conditions. We have two targets for you to set your own based on your analysis, along with a stop-loss based on your strategy.
We appreciate your unwavering support throughout the years. Please like and comment.
Team Setupsfx_
❤️🚀
Analysis of Crude Oil's Opening Market Strategy on MondayWTI crude oil futures stabilized for the second consecutive day, maintaining fluctuations within the broad range of Tuesday and oscillating around the key level of $65.12. A sustained break below this level would confirm the resurgence of selling pressure, and a breach of $64.00 could trigger a decline toward $61.90. On the upside, if the price holds above $65.12, it may drive a short-term rebound to $67.44, and if momentum strengthens, it could further test $71.20.
Crude oil prices remain range-bound, but downward pressure is building. Robust U.S. demand provides support, yet macroeconomic caution and uncertainties over OPEC+ intentions are suppressing market sentiment. A decisive break below $65.12 would confirm the bearish trend, with bears targeting $61.90. Conversely, if this level holds, neutral-to-bullish logic remains valid, though upside potential remains constrained unless supply-demand signals converge overall.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@63.1-63.3
TP:66.3-69.9