Market indices
US30: Short setup brewingSitting in a rising wedge with bearish divergence after running into resistance at 43100, the US30 contract finds itself at an interesting juncture on the charts. If it can’t stage a definitive break above these levels, a short setup could be on the cards.
If the contract cannot break and hold above 43100, traders could look to initiate short positions targeting the 200-day moving average initially. If that were to give way, the target could be lengthened to 42000, where wedge support is currently found. A stop above 43100 would protect against reversal.
While MACD has staged a bullish crossover, the momentum signal is countered by what’s still bearish divergence between RSI (14) and price despite the latest bounce.
Given the proximity to month end—a period notorious for window dressing and false signals—the preference would be to wait for another retest and failure at 43100 before initiating the trade.
A de-escalation in trade tensions, lower crude prices and the prospect of a Fed rate cut as soon as July have been tailwinds for the contract over recent days. If it can’t continue to rally in this environment, it questions just what would be required to deliver further upside, just as negative tariff headlines potentially loom.
Good luck!
DS
SPX is overheated, a correction is necessary📉 Market Update: No, It Has Nothing to Do with Trump
This move has nothing to do with Trump’s dramatic announcements. The reality is simple: the MACD on the daily chart is overheated, and a healthy correction is needed — likely down to the 5,520 level — before resuming the uptrend.
Now, does it surprise anyone that Trump acts like a PR agent for his investors? He always seems to drop “bad news” at the exact moment the charts call for a pullback. My guess? They're shorting right now.
🪙 Bitcoin Stalling
CRYPTOCAP:BTC is also losing momentum, and looks like it’s in need of a short-term correction as well. This suggests a week of consolidation ahead for the whole crypto market.
But let’s be clear:
🚀 The Bull Market Is Not Over
The weekly charts remain very bullish, and this trend could last another 4–6 months. The macro bullish structure for crypto remains intact.
However, in TradFi, there are cracks:
🔻 20-year bonds sold at 5.1% — a major recession red flag
💸 Tariffs are putting pressure on global trade
📉 The entire traditional market is starting to de-risk
🔮 What to Expect
Short-term correction to ~5,518 (first bottom target)
A possible rebound after healthy consolidation
A continued uptrend in crypto unless key support breaks
I’ll publish a new update when conditions change.
📌 Follow me to stay ahead of the market. And as always: DYOR.
#CryptoMarket #Bitcoin #MACD #TechnicalAnalysis #CryptoCorrection #BullishTrend #RecessionWarning #TradFi #Altcoins #BTC #MarketUpdate #TrumpEffect #DYOR
Bullish bounce for the Dow Jones?The price is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as an overlap support and could bounce from this level to our take profit.
Pivot: 42,588.80
1st Support: 42,119.27
1st Resistance: 43,222.33
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Bullish bounce off 50% Fibonacci support?DAX40 (DE40) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 23,409.26
1st Support: 23,261.27
1st Resistance: 23,759.37
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
nasdaq100OANDA:NAS100USD
has reached the previous highest level.
We see that the trendline has made a high possibility of the nasdaq 100 to reach a new high level because the price has gone above the previous high level, and came back to test it.
Now the price is going back up. It is fascinating as to what nasdaq100 will do next and how
other indices will be affected, including Gold and forex...
My opinion on nasdaq100:
1. It has made a different move compared to the previous high levels when they reached this level. Previously when the price reached the horizontal line (the resistance level) price began to push down and create very long spikes.
2. Nasdaq100 will go way too high and spike on that highest trendline. Spike from that level thereby create a new resistance level.
3. And then price will begin to push down strong. This will happen only if there will be a very strong spike meaning an incredible amount of sells pushing the price down.
Nasdaq100 OANDA:NAS100USD has reached the previous highest level.
We see that the trendline has made a high possibility of the nasdaq 100 to reach a new high level because the price has gone above the previous high level, and came back to test it.
Now the price is going back up. It is fascinating as to what nasdaq100 will do next and how
other indices will be affected, including Gold and forex...
My opinion on nasdaq100:
1. It has made a different move compared to the previous high levels when they reached this level. Previously when the price reached the horizontal line (the resistance level) price began to push down and create very long spikes.
2. Nasdaq100 will go way too high and spike on that highest trendline. Spike from that level thereby create a new resistance level.
3. And then price will begin to push down strong. This will happen only if there will be a very strong spike meaning an incredible amount of sells pushing the price down.
NAS100 Rejection at Trendline Resistance: Pullback ExpectedThe NAS100 (4H chart) shows a rejection near the upward sloping trendline resistance and the marked stop-loss zone around 22,335.4. After a strong bullish rally, price failed to break above the resistance and is now showing signs of a pullback. A correction toward the previous breakout zone and target level of 22,012.1 is anticipated. This move aligns with typical price behavior following a resistance rejection, offering a potential short opportunity with tight risk control.
25171 below sustain take put optionlast 3 week exp( 5 jun, 12 jun,19) all of price touched high and low compination*
check on{ one day time frame}
5 jun -{high 24897 low 24613}
12 jun - {high 25198 low 24826}
19 jun -{high 24862 low 24733}
coming 26 jun my point of target 24862
everything mention about my chart
just is my point of view idea ,,I am not sebi reg
thank you ,,,,happy day happy profit
NASDAQ: Short-lived pullback ahead of major breakout.Nasdaq has entered strong bullish territory on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 66.290, MACD = 331.080, ADX = 18.600). Despite that, it remains inside a slow moving Channel Up for the past month in contrast to the more aggressive bullish waves of the Channel Up in April and May. The 4H RSI peak may be similar to May 12th and April 24th. We believe that at least a +9.69% rally will emerge to approach the top of this 3 month Channel Up. Stay bullish, TP = 23,400.
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UK100 - Long?📈 Possible Scenarios After the “UP” Signal on FTSE 100 (UK100):
✅ Scenario 1: Reversion Rally (Most Probable Based on the Indicator)
The “UP” label suggests the system has detected short-term exhaustion to the downside.
Price may now revert higher toward the previous breakdown zone (~8,740–8,755), acting as a first resistance and potential take-profit zone.
If momentum picks up, a second leg higher toward ~8,770 is possible, especially if other indices (e.g. DAX, US500) are bouncing as well.
🔹 Trade Idea: Long from signal candle close with SL just below the low of that candle, targeting 20–40 pts higher.
⚠️ Scenario 2: Shallow Bounce & Continuation Lower
If the bounce stalls below the 8,740 level and price begins consolidating with weak candles, this could signal a bearish continuation pattern.
In that case, expect a retest of 8,700 or even 8,680.
🔹 Action: Tighten stop once price hits +15 pts from entry. Watch for bearish reversal candles near 8,740.
🧠 Confluence Tips:
✅ Check if RSI is crossing back above its moving average from oversold territory — this adds confidence to the long setup.
🔁 Align the signal with other indices (e.g., if DAX or US100 also showed reversion UP signals at the same time, it strengthens the case).
📊 If volume increased on the signal candle, it likely confirms real interest at that level.
📌 Summary:
Your indicator just printed an “UP” reversal — historically this is a high-probability bounce zone. Immediate price action over the next 2–3 candles will confirm whether this is a true reversion move or just a pause before further downside.
Nasdaq All-Time Highs, S&P Close, Blast Off or Breakdown?What an incredible melt-up since April 7 lows in the US markets.
Trump vs Musk - ignored
Iran vs Israel - ignored
High Valuations - ignored
FED Pausing - ignored
The US economy is resilient and it's a good thing because the world is performing really well (EX-US). Europe/China/India/Emerging Markets are outperforming the US by 15-16% YTD
The USD is having one its worst years ever in 2025
Gold, Silver, Bitcoin are great diversifiers in my opinion for 2025
Oil prices are incredibly volatile and energy stocks and commodities in turn are showing
volatility and big swings
As we near end of month and end of Q2, I have to believe the market is due for a small pause or pullback sooner rather than later - but we'll see
Thanks for watching!!!
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0.
If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown.
Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time.
It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year.
The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market.
The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending).
Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities.
What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years.
All the best,
Tim
April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
US100 - USTEC - Sells....📉 Textbook Short with ELFIEDT – RSI + Reversion
Instrument: US Tech 100 (USTEC)
Timeframe: 15-Minute
Date: 25 June 2025
Indicator: ELFIEDT RSI + Reversion
🔍 What Happened:
On 25 June, just after the New York open, ELFIEDT’s “DOWN” signals triggered in rapid succession—right near the session high around 22,296.
The market had been pushing upward aggressively, but ELFIEDT detected a shift in momentum and printed multiple clear short signals before the reversal even began.
💰 The Outcome:
Price dropped sharply from the signal zone, falling more than 70 points shortly after.
Anyone following the system’s guidance would have had:
✅ A clean short entry
✅ A tight risk level (just above the signal candle)
✅ A fast move in their favor
This is exactly how the ELFIEDT system is designed to operate—catching turning points early and cleanly.
📌 Why It Matters:
ELFIEDT doesn’t just follow price. It detects exhaustion, imbalance, and timing shifts with precision—giving you clear, visual BUY and SELL labels on the chart.
You don’t need to second guess or overanalyze—just follow the signals.
📈 Trade with Confidence:
This chart is a perfect example of how ELFIEDT helps traders stay ahead of reversals, avoid chasing, and trade with structure.
Let the indicator do the heavy lifting—your job is execution.