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Prices are entering critical battleground between bulls & bears(The following is solely personal opinion and not investment advice. Please exercise your own judgment before making any decisions.) Last week, the market was driven by positive news and continued its upward breakout, now surpassing the 200-day moving average. This week, attention should be paid to price and volume performance. If prices fail to break higher convincingly, a pullback may begin. However, if positive sentiment continues to dominate, the upward trend could persist. Key resistance levels are at 20,700 and 21,070. If the price breaks above 20,700 this week without showing signs of significant retracement, the market may test higher levels. On the downside, the key support zone lies between 19,978 and 20,255. If the price struggles to maintain upward momentum and consolidates below the 200-day moving average, the likelihood of a downward reversal increases. The first target on the downside would then be in the 18,277 to 18,588 range. Last week’s performance serves as a reminder that when most expect the Fed’s FOMC decisions to trigger a market drop, prices often behave contrary to expectations. In the current market environment, it’s crucial to recognize that the market won’t rise or fall indefinitely. At critical price levels, risk control and timely position adjustments are essential.
OANDA:NAS100USD
by zygliu
NASDAQ Potential Bullish Reversal OpportunityNASDAQ price action went through a massive correction during the global tariff war. However after potential recent developments, we may finally see a direction towards the resolution of widespread tariff based uncertainty across the macro economic landscape. This presents us with a potential Reversal opportunity if we see the formation of a credible Higher High (given a potential proper break out) on the Daily and shorter timeframes. Trade Plan : Entry @ 20440 Stop Loss @ 19500 TP 1 @ 21380
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by LevelsBySBT
The final rally or the beginning of hyper-inflation? This is an ascending wedge, (65% chance of a break to the downside statistically,) that the S&P500 has been trading in for it's entire life cycle. All historical data points to a final topping process as market makers head back for the top trend to liquidate short positions that took positions on the last plunge. The former sell-off showed no signs of big money taking full exit from the market as it was quite gradual; allowing short positions to stack at back tests of key resistance areas. Therefore, it stands to reason that the oversold daily RSI was going to allow for a powerful bounce to catch shorts off guard. The market will not sell off largely until shorts have capitulated as exchanges and banks load up for a final rally to completely remove those positions and sell new highs. when this happens, there will be no gradual dump but, instead, a red waterfall with news about hyperbolic, impending disasters coming out after the largest institutions push the sell button. Breaking that top trend on the 3 month logarithmic chart would be a first in market history and denote hyper-inflation followed by the coming crash being even more violent then anyone believes is possible. It is a good time to start scaling out of the market little by little.
SP:SPX
by fishguru73
Trade Idea: US30 Short ( SELL STOP )Technical Analysis Overview: 1. Daily Chart: • Price has retraced sharply into resistance (near 41,300–41,400), rejecting the 200-day EMA zone. • MACD still negative but turning up—suggests potential for a failed bounce. • RSI at 55.33—approaching overbought in a corrective move, ripe for reversal. 2. 15-Min Chart: • Bearish divergence forming on RSI with lower highs. • MACD is turning down with momentum fading after a recent high around 41,665. • Price has broken short-term moving average support, with momentum shifting down. 3. 3-Min Chart: • Clear bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows. • MACD and RSI confirm short-term weakness. • Price hovering near local support (around 41,302), if broken, would confirm further downside. ⸻ Fundamental Context (Macro): • FOMC & NFP results (recent) suggest continued uncertainty in interest rate direction. • US manufacturing and employment data have shown mixed signals—equities vulnerable to downside corrections amid macro volatility. • Seasonally, May is often a pullback month (“Sell in May”). ⸻ TRADE IDEA – SHORT US30 • Entry: 41,295 (current price at resistance zone) • Stop-Loss (SL): 41,670 (above recent intraday high and 15-min resistance) • Take-Profit (TP): 40,500 (prior support zone on 15-min chart) FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Short
by KeN-WeNzEl
Bearish revrsal off pullback resistance?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could reverse from this level to the 1st support. Pivot: 101.78 1st Support: 98.90 1st Resistance: 103.41 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
US500 bearish 12 May - 16 May 2025S&P 500 Bearish Outlook: Targeting $5,100 Amid Rising Uncertainty As of May 12, 2025, the S&P 500 (US500) stands at 5,661, reflecting a robust recovery from its April lows. However, I anticipate a bearish shift, projecting a decline towards the $5,100 level in the near term. Several converging factors underpin this outlook: 1. Anticipated Weakness in Core CPI Data The upcoming release of the April Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) on May 13 is poised to be a pivotal event. While the year-over-year Core CPI is forecasted at 2.8%, matching the previous month's figure, the month-over-month increase is expected to rise to 0.3%, up from 0.1% in March. This acceleration suggests persistent inflationary pressures, potentially prompting the Federal Reserve to maintain or even tighten monetary policy, thereby exerting downward pressure on equities. 2. Deteriorating Market Sentiment and Forecasts A notable shift in market sentiment is evident, with key indicators turning bearish. A prominent S&P 500 model has signaled its first bearish outlook since February 2022, reflecting growing investor apprehension. Additionally, leading financial institutions have revised their S&P 500 targets downward: Goldman Sachs: Reduced from 6,500 to 5,700 RBC Capital Markets: Lowered from 6,600 to 5,500 Oppenheimer: Cut from 7,100 to 5,950 Yardeni Research: Adjusted from 7,000 to 6,000 These revisions underscore the mounting concerns over economic headwinds and market volatility. 3. Sectoral Divergence: Opportunities Amidst the Downturn While the broader market faces challenges, certain sectors may exhibit resilience or even bullish tendencies: Healthcare: Continues to serve as a defensive sector, with companies demonstrating solid quarterly results and reaffirming full-year guidance despite tariff impacts. Energy Infrastructure: Firms like Enbridge and TC Energy benefit from long-term structural tailwinds, including rising energy demand and global energy security priorities. Financials and Technology: Sectors represented by ETFs such as XLK and XLF are highlighted for their strong fundamentals and growth prospects. Conversely, consumer discretionary sectors are showing signs of strain, with negative revenue surprises and companies like Harley-Davidson withdrawing their 2025 outlooks amid tariff uncertainties. 4. Implications of the US-UK Trade Deal Recent developments in the US-UK trade agreement further contribute to market uncertainty. While the deal includes exemptions for certain British goods, such as aerospace components and a quota of 100,000 UK-made cars annually, it also maintains a baseline 10% tariff on foreign goods. This policy introduces complexity and potential cost pressures for multinational companies operating across borders. Moreover, the agreement has faced criticism for being one-sided, with concerns that it may not adequately protect domestic industries or address broader trade imbalances. Such apprehensions can dampen investor confidence and contribute to market volatility. The convergence of persistent inflation, cautious monetary policy, revised market forecasts, and the complexities introduced by recent trade agreements suggest a bearish trajectory for the S&P 500, with a potential decline towards $5,100. Investors should remain vigilant, monitoring sector-specific developments and macroeconomic indicators to navigate the evolving market landscape. Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:US500Short
by Zezu_Zaza
Bank Nifty 54,800–55,600 As we all know, Bank Nifty is highly sensitive and tends to react quickly to news events. Currently, there is ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan, which has caused Bank Nifty to open with consistent gap-downs, followed by rangebound movement for the rest of the day. However, recent developments indicate that Pakistan has realized it cannot continue the conflict without risking being removed from the global map. As a result, they are now ready for a ceasefire. As I said, Bank Nifty is very sensitive, hence we can see a good gap-up opening. Bank Nifty can jump towards the 0.886 Fibonacci level, which is nothing but 54,800–55,600 zone. Traders should remain cautious but optimistic, and watch key levels carefully.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by utradewithme
Golden Rejection Candle Strategy–Catch Explosive Intraday Moves!Hello Trader! Are you tired of buying options and watching premiums die slowly? Or chasing breakouts that reverse the moment you enter? Here’s your solution – the Golden Rejection Candle Strategy , designed especially for option buyers who want timed entries, fast momentum, and defined risk . What is a Golden Rejection Candle? A special candlestick that forms when price hits a strong level (like VWAP, trendline, or demand/supply zone) and gets instantly rejected. It leaves behind a long wick (shadow), showing that buyers or sellers stepped in with force . This candle often marks the start of a sharp intraday reversal . It's not just a random wick — it’s a smart money footprint . Live Chart Example – Nifty Spot vs Option Premium (23950 CE) Date: 9th May 2025 Timeframe: 1 min (Spot), 1 min (Options) Spot Chart Setup: Nifty approached a marked green support zone and created a strong wick rejection with a small body candle — classic sign of buyers defending the level. Confirmation Candle: The next candle broke above the rejection candle’s high, confirming the reversal setup. Premium Reaction: On the 1-min ATM Option chart (23950 CE), premiums jumped from 270 to 344 – a clean 26% gain within few minutes. Risk-Reward Snapshot: Entry was at breakout, SL just below rejection wick, and target hit in a single momentum burst — the kind of move option buyers live for. How to Trade It as an Option Buyer Choose the Right Strike: Use ATM or slightly ITM options to get faster movement when price reverses. Entry Strategy: Wait for the next candle to break the rejection candle’s high/low. No break = No trade. SL Placement: Keep it just beyond the wick. Small loss if wrong, big reward if right. Exit Plan: Aim for intraday resistance/support or spike-based exits — option premiums often give quick moves post-rejection. What NOT to Do: Don’t enter on the rejection candle itself — wait for confirmation. Avoid trading this pattern in low volume or middle of the range. Don’t hold blindly — if premium spikes, take the money and run! Rahul’s Tip: “Sudden reversals are where option buyers make money — not slow trends. The rejection candle shows intent. The breakout shows confirmation. Combine both.” Conclusion: The Golden Rejection Candle Strategy gives you an edge that most random trades lack — timing, context, and structure. If you're an option buyer, this can be your go-to setup to avoid traps and enter only when smart money steps in. No more guessing. No more fear. Just clean, price-action-based entries that make sense. 👇 Have you ever used rejection-based setups? Drop your favorite trade below! Let’s learn together. If you found this post valuable, don't forget to LIKE and FOLLOW! I regularly share real-world trading setups, actionable strategies, and learning-focused content — all from real trading experience , not theory . Stay connected if you're serious about growing as a trader!
NSE:NIFTYEducation
by TraderRahulPal
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