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How to Identify Market Downtrends Without Fundamentals🔍 A Fundamental Perspective On December 18, 2024, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them to a range of 4.25%–4.5%. However, their guidance suggested a slower pace of rate cuts in 2025, with projections of only two reductions instead of four as previously expected. This cautious stance, driven by lingering inflation concerns and a resilient labor market, triggered a sharp market sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted over 1,100 points, recording its steepest single-day drop since 1974. 🔍 Market Breadth: A Technical Perspective If you’re not tracking fundamental events, Market Breadth indicators can offer valuable insights into market trends and the health of the index. 1️⃣ US30 Market Breadth EMA 20 The histogram bars in yellow reflect the number range of stocks in the DJIA with strong uptrends. Recently, the height of these bars has been steadily declining, signaling that fewer stocks are maintaining bullish trends. 2️⃣ Market Breadth MACD Conversely, the red line of the MACD indicator, which represents stocks in a strong downtrend, has been rising. This divergence indicates that bearish momentum is building across the market. 3️⃣ Market Breadth EMA Alignment The red line crossing above the green line in this indicator confirms a strong downtrend, providing additional evidence of bearish dominance. 📈 Price Action Analysis The price has broken below the ascending channel, which further supports the bearish case. Combining this with signals from the Market Breadth indicators strengthens the probability of a sustained downtrend in the DJIA. ✅ Key Takeaway By analyzing Market Breadth and combining technical indicators, you can gauge the market's strength even if you're not following the fundamentals. As DJIA breaks below critical technical levels, traders should exercise caution and watch for further confirmation of bearish trends.
TVC:DJIEducation
by Investic_analytics
Save Millions by Monitoring Your Portfolio with the VIXGreetings Everyone, Let’s face it: trading is hard. You’ve done your research—checked and triple-checked everything. The fundamentals of the company? Solid. The option chain? Looks great. The volume? Perfect. You’ve been patient, waiting for that perfect breakout, confirming the validity of the support level on the retest. Confidently, you hit “buy,” and for a moment, you breathe a sigh of relief. This trade will work out… right? But just a few days later, horror sets in. One single wick—just one—obliterates your positions. Thousands of dollars gone. Your carefully constructed trades set ablaze by volatility you didn’t see coming. Enter the Volatility Index (VIX) The VIX, often called the “Fear Index,” is a real-time pulse of the broader market, derived from the S&P 500 options market. Unlike your standard indicators, the VIX offers insights into market volatility and trader sentiment. It tends to move inversely to the market—when fear is high, the VIX spikes, and when confidence reigns, the VIX calms down, often reverting to its historical average (a concept known as mean reversion). What Makes the VIX So Powerful? 1. A Market Barometer The VIX is like a weather forecast for traders. Here’s what the levels mean: • VIX Below 20: Markets are stable, with low volatility expected. Ideal conditions for trend-following strategies. • VIX Above 30: High volatility is brewing. Risk-on positions could be in jeopardy, and hedging becomes critical. 2. Real-Time Sentiment The VIX is calculated minute-by-minute from SPX options, capturing real-time expectations of market volatility over the next 30 days. This means you don’t just rely on hindsight—you get a forward-looking view. How to Use the VIX in Your Trading Strategy 1. Portfolio Risk Management Use the VIX as an early warning system. Spikes in the VIX can signal when to reduce your exposure to equities or risky positions. For example: • High VIX (>30): Consider hedging with options, selling high-beta stocks, or adding defensive assets. • Low VIX (<20): A good environment for taking calculated risks or riding existing trends. 2. Timing Your Trades • Mean Reversion Opportunities: If the VIX spikes to extremes, it often reverts to its average (~20). This can signal an opportunity to go long on stocks after the panic subsides. • Avoid Complacency: When the VIX is at historic lows, the market may be overly complacent. Watch for potential pullbacks or corrections. Why Does This Matter? Because volatility can destroy your portfolio if you’re not prepared. The VIX allows you to anticipate market conditions, adjust your risk exposure, and stay one step ahead of the next move. It’s not just about finding the perfect trade setup—it’s about understanding the environment in which you’re trading. The VIX gives you that critical context, turning the market from a chaotic gamble into a manageable system. My Strategy: As of late, I have been taking a trend trading approach to monitoring the VIX (fear index) Is the price ranging or Is it trending? If it’s trending I ask myself what direction is it trending in —- is it a bullish trend or a bearish trend? From there I can monitor closely daily or every couple days to see how it’s developing. This indicator helps 1. Reduce Trading Anxiety 2. Helps me deleverage sometimes just at the nick of time 3. Keeps me objective. Final Thoughts The next time you are making a decision about a trade, realize that your ticker does not exist in a vacuum. Thanks for checking out my post please leave a like! Thanks, CL
TVC:VIXEducation
by coilemard
US Index Bullish after the FOMC Fed rate Cut off to 4.5US index bulish after the FOMC Fed rate cut. Now the Price is still at 108.133 and the last resistance was break on the current level and wait for the confirmations The next level will be 109.156 and 109.954. The USD positive impact will have a negative impact on major pairs and gold; be careful when opening the trades. *Note: When the USD idex is strongly bullish and sentiments also show the data will impact after the gold bullish recovery.
PEPPERSTONE:USDXLong
by Bloom_Forex_Official
us100 LONGus100 LONG 💎Please don't be greedy ENTRY : yellow point TP : blue lines SL : below red line for LONG position above red line for SHORT position ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 1: Please respect the yellow entry point, otherwise you risk entering too early before my strategy or too far, thus reducing gains and aggravating losses in the event of a stop loss ⛔️INSTRUCTIONS 2: For risk and money management: 5% of your wallet for LEV X ≤20 And 3% of your wallet for LEV X ≥ 20
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by RODDYTRADING
DXY ANALYSISWe are focusing on the 4-hour time frame chart to analyze the potential moves and changes in DXY's price. Based on my bias, I am expecting a sell in the market today. Let's see what kind of opportunity the market provides. It is very important to get confirmation before taking a trade, so always wait for confirmation. Always use stoploss for your trade. Always use proper money management and proper risk to reward ratio. This is just my analysis or prediction. #DXY 4H Technical Analyze Expected Move.
TVC:DXYShort
by TradeTacticsreal
DXY (THE DOLLAR INDEX)1. If the Dollar Breaks Out Above Resistance This scenario indicates bullish momentum, meaning the dollar could strengthen further. Implications: Continuation of Uptrend: Breaking resistance often signals strong buying interest or positive sentiment. Next Target: The price may move toward the next resistance level or a new high. Market Sentiment: This could result from strong economic data, higher interest rate expectations, or geopolitical factors favoring the dollar. Traders’ Actions: Enter long (buy) positions after confirming the breakout. Set stop-loss orders just below the breakout level to manage risk. --- 2. If the Dollar Fails to Break Resistance This scenario indicates a potential reversal or consolidation below the resistance level. Implications: Reversal to Downtrend: Failure to break resistance often signals profit-taking or bearish sentiment. Support Retest: The price might fall to test lower support levels. Market Sentiment: This could occur due to weak economic data, dovish central bank policies, or stronger foreign currencies. Traders’ Actions: Consider short (sell) positions if rejection at resistance is confirmed. Monitor for bearish patterns (e.g., double top or bearish engulfing candles). --- Confirmation is Key Volume Analysis: A breakout with high volume is more reliable, while rejection with high selling volume confirms resistance. Economic Data Events: Major announcements like interest rate decisions or employment data can influence the direction. Would you like help with specific dollar pairs or technical analysis?
TVC:DXY
by TRADE_CENTER_1
Hellena | SPX500 (4H): Short to support area 5846.5.Colleagues, I assume that price is completing a five-wave upward movement. I believe that the price may reach the resistance area of 6181.6 then I will consider only downward movement in correction to the area of 5846.5. It is possible that the price will immediately start moving towards this area, but this is a more risky plan. Still, I would like to see the completion of all waves “5” in one place! Manage your capital correctly and competently! Only enter trades based on reliable patterns!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Hellena_Trade
17
New Setup: QQQ Update"Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear, not absence of fear." QQQ: Only 6% of stocks are trading above it's 5-day average. Also the last time we saw such extreme levels lately was back on Aug 5th and Apr 15th. If you take a look at the QQQ chart, April 15th did continue to pull back like the SPY, but on Aug 5th it quickly bounced. So for right now the name of the game is to hold tight and be patient. Wait until I see the Markets start to get ready to close above its daily 5sma before looking for new setups.
INDEX:NCFD
by StockHunter88
Possible Cypher bullish pattern for Dow?Hi Guys, The US 30 has been getting sold off from its most recent high and there has been minimal to no interest for any support thus far. Currently it is testing the 50DMA and close to daily support level., where we may see a small bounce up to lower time frame resistance levels. A break and close below the 50DMA and further a break below support opens the door for the Dow to head to the FVG below, and a test of the 100DMA and a very obvious demand zone where a bullish move looks inevitable. If price does move to that area then there will also be the entry point for a bullish cypher pattern with excellent fib ratios. All in all nice confluence at the cypher entry point if price can get there. Daily RSI is currently not yet in oversold but could end up being so if we move down to the cypher entry zone, which will add to confluence. Furtermore, if the Dow can rally from there back up to the high then there could again be strong selling pressure at the 2.0 retracement of the bear market high to low located at around 45300 level. ( Dow did not quite hit that level on this swing lower and RSI was not in overbought albeit showing clear divergence)) Two potential huge risk to reward trades if price reaches these levels. Safe Trading all
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by elyask120
US100 4HNasdaq analysis ( link here ): Although we were only 100 points away from my target zone and it was a successful analysis, even this slight deviation is not acceptable in my evaluation—the exact predicted level must be reached. The price reached 22,129, but it has yet to hit the zone starting at 22,230. Therefore, I cautiously maintain a bullish outlook and am closely watching the price reaction at the key levels of 21,000 support and 21,620 resistance for further insights into the Nasdaq's movement.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by GreyFX-NDS