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Dow: Key data, earnings and US election all coming upStocks rebounded on Monday with oil prices taking a 5% plunge, amid an apparent easing in Middle East tension. The restrained reaction by Israel after recent attacks has spurred optimism, with markets hoping for stability in the region. European indices closed higher as we begin a very busy two weeks, with lots of data, US election and central banks meetings on the way. Treasury yields could take toll on stocks With the 10-year rising to a new 3-month month high of 4.29%, this could unravel risk assets. Having just closed lower for the fifth consecutive day, resulting in a weekly loss of more than 2.5%, the Dow could be the one to watch for potential underperformance. Small caps also slumped last week, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished flattish, helped by Tesla’s earnings and Nvidia surging to a new record high. Looking under the hood, financials (XLF) led the drop on Friday with a fall of 1.1% and nearly 2.1% for the week. Industrials (XLI) lost 2.8% on the week, while energy (XLE) lost 0.6% on the week and ensured a hattrick of weekly losses. Technology (XLK) was flat on the week, while semiconductor (SMH) rose 0.6%. Once again gold outperformed with GLD rising 0.8% last week. With financials and industrials taking the biggest hit, and energy also not doing great, the Dow and Russell are the obvious markets for the bears to potentially target, if sentiment turns sour again. Economic Data Points to Slower Rate Cuts Last week’s stronger economic indicators have reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may take a measured approach to future rate cuts, but will that change in the week ahead with some top-tier data to come including JOLTS, non-farm payrolls and ISM surveys? Last week’s data releases—such as jobless claims, services PMI, and durable goods orders— all surpassed forecasts, suggesting economic resilience. If we see a similar outcome from most of this week’s data releases, then that could even raise question marks over further rate cuts beyond the two more priced in for this year, as the Fed may be more inclined to wait and see before easing policy further. While a strong economy supports corporate earnings, it can also sustain higher yields, which may weigh on stock valuations. As a result, traders and investors are closely watching incoming data to gauge whether the Fed will indeed adopt a more gradual approach to rate reductions. US Election Uncertainty Adds Pressure The US presidential election is also in focus, with polls and odds markets showing a close race. Some betting markets are leaning toward a Trump victory, while other polls show a tie. A Trump win could have inflationary implications, potentially impacting the Federal Reserve’s approach to rate policy. Given Trump’s policies, investors may anticipate a more aggressive Fed response to manage potential inflation, which could affect stock prices and increase market volatility. The uncertain outcome has led investors to adopt a cautious stance, with many waiting to see how the election results may influence the Fed's future policy decisions and overall market sentiment. This has been evident in markets falling last week, VIX rising and gold hitting new record highs. Upcoming Earnings and Economic Reports As we head into a pivotal week and a half, several high-impact events could shape market direction. Investors are bracing for a series of earnings reports from major companies, often referred to as the "Magnificent 7" stocks, alongside the US monthly jobs report. These, combined with the US election on November 5, represent a series of risk events that could sway investor sentiment. Given the recent increase in yields, strong economic data, and the close election race, it is unlikely we’ll see investors rush to buy the dips. For now, a cautious approach may be warranted as investors navigate these uncertainties and await clearer signals for the market’s direction. Week ahead: Jolts, BoJ, NFP and lots of earnings There are at least a couple of major macro factors that could impact the Dow this week, while on a micro level, several tech names are reporting their results. 1) JOLTS Job Openings (Tuesday) With the Fed’s focus turning to employment, we will give preference to any labour market indicators over other data releases in the next couple of months. Though this data release is not very up to date (with this one covering August), it can still impact the market because job openings are a leading indicator of overall employment, and they usually take a few months to be filled. Last time we saw a surprisingly strong print of 8.04 million, aiding the dollar’s rally. 2) US nonfarm payrolls (Friday) Last month’s surprisingly good nonfarm payrolls data helped to fuel a big rally in the dollar as the market was forced to drop its calls for further outsized rate cuts from the Fed. Let’s see if those numbers will be revised and whether the strength in the labour market continued for another month. Any further strength in employment data could even call into question the now lower expectations of 50 basis points worth of more rate cuts in the next two FOMC meetings in 2024. This will undoubtedly move the Dow and other US indices too. Dow key levels to watch The technical Dow forecast has turned a tad bearish following last week’s drop. The last weekly drop of a similar magnitude took place in early September. That time, though, there was no immediate election risk, and so the index quickly bounced back and went on to hit new records in the pursuing weeks. This time, it could be different. Still, we will need to see a lower low to confirm the bearish reversal beneath the last short-term low at 41,800. If seen, we could see a sizeable drop with the next obvious support not seen until around 40,900 to 41,000 area. The longer-term trend line and 200-day average converge around the psychologically important area of 40,000. Standing in the way of these potential support levels is another one close to where the market finished on Friday and where it has staged a bounced from today, around 42,000. In terms of resistance levels to watch, the most important one in my view lies at 42,400 to 42,500. This area is now pivotal insofar as the short-term technical outlook is concerned. By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
FOREXCOM:US30
by FOREXcom
Yen Bullish Three Drives PatternHow to identify the Three Drives pattern? The three drives harmonic pattern is identified by various three higher highs or lower lows. They gather in a reversal of the existing trend. Every move lower or higher is quantified by using the Fibonacci extension and retracement levels of 61.8 and 127.2 percent. In some instances, the definition of the 3-drive pattern may be expanded to include various Fibonacci retracement or extension levels, like a 161.8 percent extension rather than a 127.2 percent extension. The pattern also works without Fibonacci levels, but it may be less accurate. Bullish Three Drives pattern The pattern begins with a bearish swing to give traders their first drive. Traders can then notice a retracement higher into the 61.8 percent level of the first drive to give traders the A point. From here, the price turns lower again to give the second drive which should complete into the 1.27 percent extension of the first drive. From here, the price correct higher once more. It goes back up into the 61.8 percent retracement of the second drive to give us our B point. Then there will be one final push lower with price trading down to the 1.27 percent extension of the second drive to give a third drive that completes the pattern and offers a buying zone.
TVC:JXY
by SEYED98
9
NIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 29-Oct-2024 Intro: On the previous day, Nifty displayed a upward movement from the provided levels in yesterdays trading plan and minor fluctuations within key levels. The chart illustrates potential sideways movement in yellow , an expected bullish trend in green , and a bearish trend in red . For today's trading, we will observe various opening scenarios and outline strategies accordingly. Trading Plan for 29-Oct-2024 Gap Up Opening (100+ points above) If Nifty opens with a 100+ points gap up, it is likely to face resistance near the 24,453 - 24,563 range, which is marked as the Opening Resistance / No Trade Zone . Observe price action here. If Nifty sustains above 24,563 , it may target the Profit Booking Zone around 24,715 - 24,759 . However, if it fails to break above the resistance, expect a potential retracement towards the Opening Support at 24,282 . – In case of strong selling pressure, Nifty could pull back further, aiming toward 24,162 as a potential support. Flat Opening (within 50 points of the previous close) With a flat opening, focus on the initial 30 minutes to gauge market sentiment. If prices sustain above the 24,453 level, we may see a push toward 24,563 . A breakout above 24,563 will likely lead to a bullish trend targeting Profit Booking Zone at 24,715 - 24,759 . However, if it fails to sustain above the No Trade Zone , expect sideways movement or a dip toward 24,282 . – Any move below 24,282 could potentially extend towards 24,162 , testing the Last Intraday Support level. Gap Down Opening (100+ points below) In a gap-down opening, monitor the 24,282 level as the immediate support. If it holds, Nifty may attempt to retest the Opening Resistance Zone around 24,453 . A breakout above this level could bring sideways or bullish momentum up to 24,563 . Failure to reclaim 24,282 may lead to further downside pressure, potentially pulling prices to the Last Intraday Support at 24,162 . – Watch for price stability around 24,162 if it is reached, as this may serve as a potential reversal point. Risk Management Tips for Options Trading Consider setting a defined stop-loss for each options position based on volatility levels; hourly candle closes can be useful for managing intraday risk. Avoid over-leveraging. In options trading, position sizing should reflect the inherent risk and potential for quick price changes. Utilize trailing stops to lock in profits if Nifty moves favorably. This is particularly effective in highly volatile sessions. Summary and Conclusion Today, focus on the key zones: 24,453 - 24,563 as resistance and 24,282 as support. A break above or below these levels could set the day's trend. Use a balanced approach, aligning with the prevailing sentiment indicated by the chart structure. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis is based on personal views and technical parameters. Please conduct your research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTY
by LiveTradingBox
BANKNIFTY : Trading Levels and Plan for 29-10-2024 Intro: On the previous day, Bank Nifty showed a mixture of consolidation and upward movement and resistance at higher level from and to recommended levels , suggesting potential momentum above certain levels. The chart highlights yellow zones as areas likely to see sideways movement, green zones as potential bullish areas, and red zones for bearish momentum. Today, we’ll explore trading strategies for different opening scenarios. Trading Plan for 29-Oct-2024 Gap Up Opening (200+ points above) If Bank Nifty opens with a 200+ points gap up, it is likely to encounter resistance around the 51,478 level, marked as the Last Resistance for Intraday . If prices sustain above this level, we may see an upward movement towards the Profit Booking Zone / Sideways Zone between 51,955 - 52,160 . However, if it fails to break this resistance, expect potential retracement towards the Opening Support at 51,080 . – If selling pressure builds, Bank Nifty may pull back further to retest 50,985 as an additional support level. Flat Opening (within 100 points of the previous close) With a flat opening, monitor the first 30 minutes for price action clarity. If Bank Nifty trades above 51,478 after initial consolidation, it could signal a bullish push toward 51,955 . A breakout above this resistance might lead the price to test the upper bounds near 52,160 . Conversely, if it struggles to hold above 51,478 , a sideways or slight bearish trend might develop towards 51,080 . – Any dip below 51,080 may attract additional selling pressure, possibly pushing prices towards the Pending Buyer’s Order Zone around 50,638 . Gap Down Opening (200+ points below) In a gap-down scenario, focus on 50,985 as a crucial support level. If Bank Nifty maintains this level, it might attempt to rebound towards 51,478 . A successful move above 51,478 could bring sideways to bullish action up to 51,955 . If, however, the index breaks below 50,985 , expect it to test the Pending Buyer’s Order Zone at 50,638 , a key level for potential trend reversals. – Failure to hold at 50,638 may lead to further bearish momentum. Risk Management Tips for Options Trading Set defined stop-loss levels for each trade based on market volatility; hourly candle closes can serve as an effective risk management tool. Avoid over-allocating capital in options trading. Use smaller position sizes to manage potential market swings. Consider trailing stops to protect profits if Bank Nifty moves favorably in your direction, especially during periods of heightened volatility. Summary and Conclusion Today, the primary levels to watch are 51,478 as the last intraday resistance and 50,985 as key support. A break beyond these levels could determine the market's directional bias. Adopting a flexible strategy and monitoring early price action can provide valuable insights for effective entries. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. This analysis represents my personal view and is based on technical levels. Please do your research or consult a financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by LiveTradingBox
2
US30 - Dow Jones IndustrialThe week’s key economic updates kick off tomorrow with the Labor Department's Job Openings and Labor Market Turnover Survey (JOLTS), which is anticipated to provide new insights into labor market dynamics. In its previous report, JOLTS indicated a 4.3% increase in job openings, bringing the total to 8.04 million. However, hiring, layoffs, and resignations all saw a decline, aligning with the Federal Reserve's decision to implement a 50 basis point interest rate cut. For the upcoming September report, analysts predict job openings will decrease by 0.6%, reaching 7.99 million. Additionally, the Conference Board will release its October Consumer Confidence report. Of particular interest will be the job confidence component, as it could offer a complementary perspective to JOLTS findings. The day will also see the release of the Case-Shiller report, the first of several upcoming housing market indicators. According to economists surveyed by Reuters, the 20-city composite index for August is expected to show a moderation in home price growth, down to 5.0% year-over-year from the previous 5.9%.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by thabang01
Weekly Technical AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends. The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Analysis Germany 40 Germany 40 remains bullish in an impulsive phase above the VWAP despite the pullback over the past week. The current price is 19,500, positioned above the VWAP (20) of 19,361. Support is now at 19,004, while resistance stands at 19,718. The RSI is 57, indicating ongoing bullish momentum with slight moderation. UK 100 The UK 100 remains neutral in a consolidation phase after a failed breakout through the top of the range. The current price is 8,246, just below the VWAP (20) of 8,287. Support is identified at 8,185, while resistance is at 8,389. The RSI is 45, reflecting balanced momentum with no directional bias either way. Wall Street Wall Street is bullish but in a corrective phase. The price is currently 42,290, the furthest it's been below the VWAP (20) of 42,651 since early September. Support is at 41,792, with resistance at 43,510. The RSI is 47, flipping to bearish after a 2-month spell over the 50 level. Brent Crude Brent Crude remains neutral in a consolidation phase with no clear directional bias. The short term price trend is negative with the price of 7235, below the VWAP (20) of 7543. Support is located at 7067, with resistance at 8019. The RSI is 42, indicating a lack of clear momentum. Gold Gold remains very bullish still in an impulsive phase as the price tracks sideways in a narrow range under record highs. The current price is 2,733, above the VWAP (20) of 2,683. Support is found at 2,592, and resistance is at 2,775. The RSI is 65, reflecting strong bullish momentum without being overbought. EUR/USD EUR/USD is bearish in an impulsive phase, continuing to show strong downward momentum. The current price is 1.0787, below the VWAP (20) of 1.0877. Support is at 1.0740, with resistance at 1.1014. The RSI is 30, indicating strong bearish momentum and an oversold market. GBP/USD GBP/USD remains neutral but with a bearish bias. The current price is 1.2950, slightly below the VWAP (20) of 1.3029. Support is at 1.2914, while resistance stands at 1.3144. The RSI is 37, indicating weaker momentum with a potential for further downside. USD/JPY USD/JPY continues in a bullish impulsive phase. The current price is 153.54, even above the upper standard deviation of the VWAP (20) of 150.07. Support is at 146.77, and resistance stands at 153.50. The RSI is 71, signalling strong bullish momentum with overbought conditions.
SPREADEX:GDAXI
by Spreadex
10/28 GEX of SPX for this weekThis week is especially exciting because, on Thursday, we’ll be releasing our automatic GEX level indicator! (Halloween night, yes, very spooky...) Here's a little preview of what’s coming—just a few more days to go, and we can hardly wait! Based on the key aggregated GEX levels valid as of today's market open, we can see that SPX started the week in a positive territory following last week's minor correction. Currently, the gamma profile suggests positive outlooks through Friday as the market opened above the HVL level, which is now at 5820. The primary levels to watch are: Call Wall (5900): This level, with the highest positive Net GEX value, may serve as a strong resistance point this week. As the price approaches this level, upward momentum may slow as market liquidity tends to stabilize movements here. Put Support (5800): This is the key support level where negative gamma presence helps cushion price declines. Should the price dip below this level, moves might accelerate, so it’s worth monitoring movements around 5800. With the gamma profile above the current HVL level (5820), GEX is positive , which can help stabilize the market and support further gains. Observing options market dynamics, this level suggests the direction of momentum, where market participants may anticipate further upside. As we saw last week, this level could mark a point of heightened volatility for SPX! Additional important levels, like the 2nd Call Wall and 2nd Put Wall, can also be seen on the chart, providing potential barriers and support points for price movements throughout the week. Gamma levels are updated multiple times daily and may shift with market moves.
SP:SPX
by TanukiTrade
MIDCAP NIFTY S/R for 29/10/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. RSI: RSI readings greater than the 70 level are overbought territory, and RSI readings lower than the 30 level are considered oversold territory. Combining RSI with Support and Resistance: Support Level: This is a price level where a stock tends to find buying interest, preventing it from falling further. If RSI is showing an oversold condition (below 30) and the price is near or at a strong support level, it could be a good buy signal. Resistance Level: This is a price level where a stock tends to find selling interest, preventing it from rising further. If RSI is showing an overbought condition (above 70) and the price is near or at a strong resistance level, it could be a signal to sell or short the asset. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
N
by zenthosh
SENSEX S/R for 29/10/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. RSI: RSI readings greater than the 70 level are overbought territory, and RSI readings lower than the 30 level are considered oversold territory. Combining RSI with Support and Resistance: Support Level: This is a price level where a stock tends to find buying interest, preventing it from falling further. If RSI is showing an oversold condition (below 30) and the price is near or at a strong support level, it could be a good buy signal. Resistance Level: This is a price level where a stock tends to find selling interest, preventing it from rising further. If RSI is showing an overbought condition (above 70) and the price is near or at a strong resistance level, it could be a signal to sell or short the asset. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BSE:SENSEX
by zenthosh
BANKNIFTY KEY LEVELS FOR 29/10/2024//@description // All credit goes to Tony for the concept of this indicator. His Trading View link: www.tradingview.com // Note: The calculation method in this indicator differs from Tony's, but the concept is derived from his work. **Explanation:** This trading system helps you avoid blind trades by providing confirmation for better entries and exits. It considers volume, past prices, price range and indiavix. **Entry/Exit Points:** - **Entry/Exit Lines:** Use the BLACK line for long trades and the RED line for short trades, based on confirmation from your trading plan. - **Stop Loss:** For long trades, set the stop loss at the RED line below. For short trades, set it at the BLACK line above. - **Take Profit:** For long trades, target the next RED line above. For short trades, target the next BLACK line below. **Timeframe:** Use a 5 timeframe for trading. **Risk Disclaimer:** This setup is for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for your gains or losses. Check the chart for more details.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by nandupk
C WAVE CRASH Setup from 5880 to 5944 ideal target 5910 The chart posted is my view and it is BEARISH on ALL counts Waves A and C will be equal at 5944 but also can be counted as complete at 5880 area were wave C is .786 of wave A and wave A low 5119 x 1.382 = wave B top at 5669-5119 = 550 x 1.382 = 760 plus 5119 =5879 . .If we are in the The ending Diagonal we will stop at same targets .I will move to 100 % long puts at 5920 plus and in the QQQ at 503 Market if touched MIT
SP:SPX
by wavetimer
1
Brief drop due to Electrions chaos, then back up a month afterI was checking last elections on 2012, 2016 and 2020. Seems that there is a brief drop before elections each time (5% to 10%) in the overall S&P500 (SPX). This year, seems that drop is not meaningful yet. Regarthless, I think going defensive this week to be heavy in cash. Then buy back into the market if price hits 5400 previous to Dec. It it do, I'll buy back 25% of SPX and wait if the trend still going in the direction to hit ~5000. If it do, might be back fully invested into the market to hope for a bounce back up signal. We can protect ourselves of a 10% loss if I get this one right OR we can miss 5% on profits if the trend keeps going up in Nov and Dec. Messy chart but I put my resistances and trends in here. Any thoughts?
SP:SPXShort
by lealvillarreal
Technical bounce in Nifty today, recovery can be a long processToday what we saw can be called as technical recovery by Nifty in the process of bottom formation. Actual recovery can still be a long process. Bulls can be back inn business only if we get a closing above mother line of 50 days EMA that is at 24898. 24898 is a critical level because mid channel resistance for the current parallel channel as well as Mother line. Whether Nifty can weather the storm and move ahead is only a question which time will answer in the short term. Long term investors can see current situation as partial entry zone for large and mid-caps which have given a good result this quarter or are giving a good result. Supports for Nifty remain at: 23865, 23684, 23464 (Father line Strong support 200 days EMA) and 23626 (Strong Parallel Channel Bottom Support). Resistances for Nifty Remain at: 24492 (Today's high and strong Trend line resistance), 24679, 24898 (Strong Mid-channel and Mother line resistance of 50 days EMA), 25221 and 25623. Strong momentum and positive action has potential to take Nifty back to 26K+ levels. As on date even after strong resilience shown by Nifty FIIs are still on the selling side as they were net sellers of Equity worth Rs.3228 Crores. DIIs and Retail investors have been on the buying side at every dip. This is what is not allowing the Nifty to fall currently beyond 200 days EMA. Let us see who given in first. Very interesting tussle going on between FIIs and DIIs + Retail investors combination. Shadow of the candle for tomorrow is neutral to slightly positive but it is hanging by a thin thread. (Approach for long term should be cautious but positive. Approach for short term is still very cautious as we are not out of deep waters).
NSE:NIFTY
by Happy_Candles_Investment