Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could drop to the 1st support.
Pivot: 98.59
1st Support: 97.69
1st Resistance: 99.25
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Market indices
S&P 500 Wave Analysis – 23 June 2025- S&P 500 reversed from support area
- Likely to rise to resistance level 6065.00
S&P 500 index recently reversed from the support area between the support level 5930.00 (which reversed the price multiple times from the start of June) and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the sharp upward impulse 1 from last month.
The upward reversal from this support area stopped the previous minor ABC correction 2 from the start of June.
S&P 500 index can be expected to rise to the next resistance level 6065.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1).
EUR/USD Macro Structure | Don’t Miss the Cycle ShiftAfter reviewing the 12M, 2M, and currency indexes — this isn’t just a bounce, it’s a potential macro reversal.
EUR/USD (2M Chart)
We’ve now got two Morning Star Dojis followed by a bullish engulfing — price is climbing steadily toward 1.16319 (neckline zone). If we break and retest clean, 1.25560 becomes a high-probability target. I view this as the neckline of a multi-year W-formation.
💶EUR Index (16D Chart)
The breakout has already occurred. Retest is happening now around the 1.057 zone. Fibonacci structure supports continuation, and volume confirms strength. If momentum holds, 1.085 – 1.130+ are valid extensions.
💵 USD Index (DXY - 16D Chart)
Meanwhile, the dollar is breaking down from a neckline around 98. If the 97–98 range gives way, we may revisit 88.253, confirming a shift in USD dominance.
🌐 Fundamental Alignment:
The Eurozone is pushing hard for digital transformation, with the ECB advancing legislation on the digital euro. Christine Lagarde has been vocal about blockchain innovation — and XRP’s involvement in cross-border integration is no coincidence.
🎯 Key Price Levels:
1.16319: Neckline (retest zone)
1.25560: Mid-term target
1.60195: Macro expansion (long-term, structure-dependent)
📌 I encourage all traders to zoom out and track structure across multiple timeframes. Sometimes the past holds clues to the future.
USD Bears Show Big Response to Rate Cut TalkThe bearish trend in USD has run for most of this year so far, and this has happened even as many members of the Fed refrain from talking up possible rate cuts. Last week, Jerome Powell once again reiterated that he thought tariffs would produce inflation, and he seemed to dismiss the forecasts that indicated two possible rate cuts in 2025.
Another inflationary factor showed with geopolitical risk, as tensions between the U.S. and Iran threatened to impact oil prices. And given how most consumer products in the U.S. transport via trucks, that could produce vulnerability to inflation from higher oil prices.
But, so far, we've seen a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' phenomenon around that, as Iran's retaliation hasn't seemed to excite markets, with oil prices heading lower after the attack. We've also seen the bid that drove the USD after the weekly open evaporate, and the daily bar is currently showing as a bearish engulfing candlestick.
There's quite a bit of U.S. drive from the calendar for this week including speeches from Jerome Powell along with numerous other Fed members. Friday brings the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and sellers, at this point, seem to have an open door to make a run at the lows in USD. - js
24 June nifty breakout & breakdown levels 🔺 Bullish (Call Option / CE) Strategy:
✅ Buy CE (Call Option) when:
Above 24,710 → Entry for bullish trade
"Above 10m hold CE by buy level"
Above 24,870 → Stronger confirmation
"Above Opening S1 10M Hold CE By level"
Above 25,020 → Positive trade view
"Above 10M hold positive trade view"
Above 25,130 → Safer CE entry zone
"Above 10M hold CE by entry level"
Above 25,233 → Closing shot level
"Above 10M Closing Shot cover level"
🔻 Bearish (Put Option / PE) Strategy:
✅ Buy PE (Put Option) when:
Below 24,710 → Entry for bearish trade
"Below 10m hold PE By level"
Below 24,870 → Bearish confirmation
"Below Opening R1 10M Hold PE By level"
Below 25,020 → Negative trade view
"Below 10M hold nigeative trade view"
Below 25,130 → Risky PE zone
"Below 10M hold PE By Risky Zone"
Below 25,233 → Safer PE Zone
"Below 10M hold PE By Safe Zone"
NASDAQ Will the 4H MA200 support the Channel Up?Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up since mid-May and today almost touched the pattern's bottom, making a Higher Low. At the same time, the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) is right below it, the medium-term's natural Support.
Since the 4H RSI also bounced on the 32.20 Support, which is where the pattern bottomed on May 23, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start, as long as of course the 4H MA200 holds. The Target is the 1.382 Fibonacci extension at 22300.
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👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
US 100 – Potential For Further Geo-Political Volatility AheadEarly trading this Monday morning has been dominated by President Trump's surprise weekend decision to launch airstrikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, which may increase the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East.
After closing at 21,652 on Friday, this news led the US 100 to a gap open lower to 21,375 in early Asian trading, however, this drop didn't last long and the index has since recovered to trade back up to 21600 again at the time of writing (0800 BST).
Looking forward, the focus for traders may continue to be on Iran's next move. So far they have confined their retaliation to missile attacks on Israel, but they did issue a statement saying they reserve all options to defend themselves.
Fresh attacks on US bases in the region, or deciding to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping supply route for Oil and Gas from the region, may undermine risk sentiment which could lead to renewed selling of the US 100, while any options suggesting a potential quicker resolution to this conflict may be seized upon by traders to push the index back up to higher levels seen in the middle of last week.
There are scheduled events released across the week that may also be relevant, these include the testimony of Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell to congress at 1500 BST on Tuesday and Wednesday, as well as the next US PCE Index update at 1330 BST on Friday, which is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
Technical Update: Assessing Support and Resistance Levels
Escalation of hostilities in the middle east over the weekend may leave traders uncertain as to the direction of the next price activity for the US 100 moving forward.
However, technical analysis can help to outline potential support and resistance levels, which if broken to the up or downside, might offer clues on where the index may move.
Potential Support Levels:
Looking at the chart of the US 100 index below, it could be argued that Monday’s lower opening level has already tested what traders may be viewing as support at 21373. This level is equal to half the May 23rd to June 11th phase of price strength.
Having seen an initial recovery following tests of this 21373 level, it may now have been strengthened as a support focus. This means closing breaks below 21373, while not a guarantee of further price declines, may suggest tests of the next support at 20666, which is the May 23rd price low, even 20360, the 38% Fibonacci retracement level, could be possible.
Potential Resistance Levels:
In terms of resistance levels to monitor this week, as the chart shows, Friday’s activity did see a sell-off from its 21905 session high. This confirms sellers have been active at this level previously and may prove to be again.
As such, traders may now be watching the defence of this 21905 level on a closing basis, as breaks above this resistance may now be required to see attempts to push to higher levels which may include a challenge of resistance at 22074, the June 11th session upside extreme, possibly then 2226, the February 18th high.
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Potential Bullish Scenario for DXY, target objective is 99.392Higher timeframe analysis
As discussed in last week's analysis of the DXY, the higher timeframe draw on liquidity is the bearish monthly Fair value gap set at 101.977. This warrants a higher timeframe bullish bias until this level has been achieved.
Intermediate timeframe analysis
We note the relative equal highs on the daily and 1H chart at 99.392. This serves as a intermediate timeframe draw on liquidity and target objective.
Also note that the buyside of the curve of the market maker buy model has commenced which further fuels bullish sentiment.
Scenario 1
On the 1H chart, note the relative equal lows at 98.482. These lows are expected to be ran to serve as a liquidity primer for the bullish 1H order block at 98.436 which is expected to be respected and held. This poses a rather handsome risk to reward ratio.
Scenario 2
Should price push past the invalidation point of the bullish 1H order block we could see it head to the bullish 1H order block at the initial accumulation at 98.219. The reward on this setup would make up for the loss of scenario 1.
Disclaimer
The above analysis is intended for educational purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice.
DXY: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 98.274 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 98.606 .Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Technical Weekly AnalysisStart your week by identifying the key price levels and trends.
The SpreadEx Research team has analysed the most popular markets, including stocks, indices, commodities & forex.
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Analysis
Germany 40 has turned bearish and is now in an impulsive move lower. It is trading at 23,222, notably below its VWAP of 23,732. The RSI at 39 signals weak momentum. Support is seen at 22,867, with resistance higher at 24,597.
UK 100 remains in a bullish trend but has shifted into a correction phase. The index trades at 8,778, slightly below its VWAP of 8,831. The RSI is at 50, showing a balanced momentum. Support lies at 8,750, with resistance at 8,904.
Wall Street continues in its bullish trend but is undergoing a correction. It is trading at 42,249, just under the VWAP at 42,460. The RSI at 51 suggests a neutral outlook. Support is at 41,857, and resistance stands at 43,062.
Brent Crude is in a very strong bullish impulsive phase, trading at 7,633 above its VWAP of 7,015. The RSI at 66 indicates strong upward momentum. Support is at 6,016, while resistance is found at 8,015.
Gold remains bullish but is now in a correction/sideways phase. It trades at 3,364, very close to its VWAP of 3,360. The RSI at 52 implies a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Support is at 3,289, with resistance at 3,438.
EUR/USD continues in a bullish correction phase, with the pair trading at 1.1475 - down from the recent 3yr high - and its VWAP close at 1.1450. RSI is steady at 54, suggesting moderate buying interest. Support is at 1.1338, and resistance is at 1.1592.
GBP/USD is still bullish but in a correction phase, currently trading at 1.3390, just below the VWAP at 1.3512. RSI at 42 points to weakening momentum. Support is at 1.3380, with resistance at 1.3639.
USD/JPY has broken out above a triangle pattern into a bullish impulsive run, trading at 147.86, well above its VWAP of 144.52. RSI at 67 confirms strong buying pressure. Support is at 142.04, and resistance is at 147.01.
DXY Daily And 4hr chart analaysis The DXY remains in a bearish trend and is expected to continue declining toward the 99.442 level. From there, a potential reversal could occur, with a projected target around 95.75. However, while I anticipate the index may reach that level, there’s also a realistic possibility it could reverse earlier around the 96.00 area and resume a bullish trend from that point.
Nas100/US100 Short Setup based on Fundamentals
Hello everyone. We have seen the Nasdaq form a new local top at the 22k area and is now heading back down.
There are many reasons why price is falling but remember this only a temporary sell off as the master trend on the highest time frame is up not down.
Today (Friday 20th June) is OPEX. $6.6 Trillion of options are set to expire today and the Max Pain level is 21,500. Price could drive there to render most options worthless.
Institutions and hedge funds have increasingly added short positions or are sitting on the side lines. Indicating lack of buying from the larger players for the time being.
Buying volume is lower than the selling volume at the top of this rally.
We have 2 weeks roughly until trump tarrifs are implemented and not many trade deals have been made.
Iran-Israel conflict with a possible US involvement.
FED is leaning towards a more hawkish approach due to tarrifs but says the US economy is still growing.
How I am looking at this for the near future. In the chart I have marked my entry, My SL, My Max TP and where I would take partials on the way down. I may also even scale in more if I see the opportunity.
Thanks for reading.