Falling towards major support?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance that aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Pivot: 41,520.25
1st Support: 40,653.80
1st Resistance: 43,238.47
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Market indices
Nikkei 225 H4 | Rising toward a 61.8% Fibonacci retracementThe Nikkei 225 (JPN225) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 38,651.50 which is a pullback resistance that aligns closely with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss is at 39,000.00 which is a level that sits above a multi-swing-high resistance.
Take profit is at 37,840.09 which is a pullback support that aligns closely with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
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Can Geopolitics Redefine Market Risk?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), which analysts widely dub the "fear gauge," currently commands significant attention in global financial markets. Its recent surge reflects profound uncertainty, particularly from escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. While the VIX quantifies market expectations for future volatility, its current elevation signals more than mere sentiment. It represents a sophisticated repricing of systemic risk, capturing the implied probability of significant market dislocations. Investors find it an indispensable tool for navigating turbulent periods.
The dramatic escalation of the Iran-Israel proxy conflict into a confrontation, involving the United States, directly fuels this heightened volatility. Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities on June 13, 2025, prompted swift Iranian retaliation. Subsequently, on June 22, the U.S. launched "Operation Midnight Hammer," conducting precision strikes on key Iranian nuclear sites. Iran's Foreign Minister immediately declared diplomacy over, holding the U.S. responsible for "dangerous consequences" and vowing further "punishment operations," including a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
This direct U.S. military intervention, particularly targeting nuclear facilities with specialized munitions, fundamentally alters the conflict's risk profile. It moves beyond proxy warfare into a confrontation with potentially existential implications for Iran. The explicit threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global chokepoint for oil supplies, creates immense uncertainty for energy markets and the broader global economy. While historical VIX spikes from geopolitical events often prove transient, the current situation's unique characteristics introduce a higher degree of systemic risk and unpredictability. The Cboe VVIX Index, measuring the VIX's expected volatility, has also risen to the higher end of its range, signaling deep market uncertainty about the future trajectory of risk itself.
The current environment necessitates a shift from static portfolio management to a dynamic, adaptive approach. Investors must re-evaluate portfolio construction, considering long exposure to volatility through VIX instruments as a hedging mechanism, and increasing allocations to traditional safe havens like U.S. Treasuries and gold. The elevated VVIX implies that even the predictability of market volatility is compromised, demanding a multi-layered risk management strategy. This specific confluence of events might signify a departure from historical patterns of short-lived geopolitical market impacts, suggesting geopolitical risk could become a more ingrained and persistent factor in asset pricing. Vigilance and agile strategies are paramount for navigating this unpredictable landscape.
Nifty directions and levels for June 23Good morning, Friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for June 23:
Market Overview
The global market is showing signs of consolidation with some cautious sentiment, and our local market is also reflecting the same.
However, Gift Nifty is indicating a 130-point negative start.
So, what can we expect today?
The structures in the higher degree timeframes are slightly different from one another, so we can't take any firm decision in advance.
However, my expectation is that the market may close with a negative bias today.
Let’s look at the chart for more clarity.
On the 15-minute chart, both Nifty and Bank Nifty appear to be showing a similar structure.
Current View
The current view suggests that if the market sustains the initial gap-down and consolidates, we can expect the correction to continue.
In this case, even if there is a solid pullback, the market may not move much higher.
This would mean it could consolidate between the previous day’s high and the upcoming low.
Alternate View
The alternate view suggests that if the market takes a pullback initially, it may consolidate within the previous day's range.
If it breaks the previous high after that, we can expect further rally continuation, possibly in a diagonal pattern.
#Banknifty directions and levels for June 23:Current View
The current view suggests that if the market sustains the initial gap-down and consolidates, we can expect the correction to continue.
In this case, even if there is a solid pullback, the market may not move much higher.
This would mean it could consolidate between the previous day’s high and the upcoming low.
Alternate View
The alternate view suggests that if the market takes a pullback initially, it may consolidate within the previous day's range.
If it breaks the previous high after that, we can expect further rally continuation, possibly in a diagonal pattern.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 23/06/2025A flat opening is expected in Nifty today. If Nifty sustains above the 25,050–25,100 zone after the open, we can expect an upside rally toward 25,150 → 25,200 → 25,250+ levels. This bullish momentum may continue if Nifty remains strong above 25,100.
However, any downside momentum may begin if Nifty starts trading below 24,950, which is a crucial support zone. In such a scenario, the index could slip toward 24,850 → 24,800 → 24,750- levels.
For intraday trades, focus on breakout or breakdown levels, and manage risk with trailing stop-losses in place.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(23/06/2025)A flat opening is expected in Bank Nifty today. After the open, if Bank Nifty sustains above 56,050, an upside rally is likely toward 56,450+. A further continuation of this rally could occur if the index trades above 56,550–56,600, with extended targets up to 56,750 → 56,850 → 56,950+.
On the downside, if Bank Nifty trades below 55,950, some selling pressure may emerge. However, 55,550 will act as strong support for today’s session. A major downward move is only expected if this support breaks, opening potential targets of 55,250 → 55,150 → 55,050-.
Fx Outlook for the Week June 23-27 Fx Outlook for the Week June 23-27
#DXY
#USDJPY
#EURUSD
#GBPUSD
#GOLD
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The technical analyses provided herein are based solely on my personal analysis and are intended for my own study and reference. They do not constitute a recommendation or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. Any decision made by individuals based on this analysis is their own responsibility, and I assume no liability for any losses or damages incurred as a result of using this information. It is advisable to conduct thorough research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nasdaq continuation sellsH4: STILL BULLISH INTERNALLY WITH OUR LAST SIGNIFICANT HL AT 21000
-Possible major chOch on H4 is very possible due to the HTF major zone we at
-Wait for proper H1 & lower tineframe confirmations before jumping in any trades
H1: BEARISH MARKET STRUCTURE STARTING TO PLAY WITH LAST LH AT 21925
-Potential continuation of sells all the way down to take out H4 hl a 21000
-We recently broke below a buying range on H1 & created a selling range
-Possible pullback buys before sells within that range are imminent
M15: We have a nice supply+fvg for sells at 21835
-Wait for price to pullback in there then M1 chOch then attack
Triple Top Forming on NAS100? Reversal Attempt BrewingNAS100 may be carving out a triple top or micro head-and-shoulders, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. A confirmed break of the current range is still required to validate downside momentum. With heightened geopolitical risk (U.S. strike on Iran), capital may rotate into gold and oil, weighing on equities. This is a low-risk, short-term idea only—more structure and confirmation needed before hunting larger trend moves.
NASS1001. Nasdaq 100 (NASS100) Performance
As of mid-June 2025, the Nasdaq 100 index is around 21,600 to 21,700 points, showing moderate volatility with recent declines amid geopolitical tensions and trade concerns.
Technology stocks, including semiconductor giants like NVIDIA and Broadcom, remain influential on Nasdaq movements.
Market sentiment is cautious due to escalating Middle East conflicts and US-China trade uncertainties.
2. US 10-Year Treasury Yield (US10Y)
The US 10-year Treasury yield is hovering around 4.3% to 4.4% in June 2025.
Yields have edged up recently, reflecting inflation expectations and Federal Reserve monetary policy stance.
Rising yields often pressure growth stocks, including tech-heavy Nasdaq components, due to higher discount rates on future earnings.
3. US Dollar Index (DXY) Dynamics
The DXY has been relatively stable but showed some weakening in 2025 despite rising Treasury yields, reflecting complex market dynamics including geopolitical risks and shifts in capital flows.
A weaker dollar can support Nasdaq by boosting earnings of multinational tech firms through favorable currency translation, while a stronger dollar can weigh on exports and earnings.
4. Interplay Between NASS100, US10Y, and DXY
Rising US10Y yields tend to put downward pressure on Nasdaq 100 due to increased discount rates and borrowing costs for growth companies.
DXY movements influence Nasdaq via currency effects on multinational revenues and investor risk appetite.
Recent geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties have increased market volatility, occasionally decoupling typical correlations.
Softer inflation and weak labor data have temporarily boosted investor sentiment, supporting modest Nasdaq gains despite yield pressures.
Conclusion
the Nasdaq 100 faces pressure from rising US 10-year Treasury yields, which increase discount rates on tech stocks, while geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties add volatility. The US Dollar Index’s relative weakness provides some support to Nasdaq earnings, partially offsetting yield headwinds. Market participants remain cautious, balancing inflation data, Fed policy, and global risks in their outlook.
#NASS100
USTECH H4 AnalysisUSTECH Showing a bullish Flag. If it breaks this zone above, Most probably can fly up to 22,106.35 and higher TO 23,200. If no, Can rally between 20,800, 20,400 or even lower. Trading Analysis from 23-06-25 to 27-06-25. Take your risk under control and wait for market to break support or resistance on smaller time frame. Best of luck everyone and happy trading.🤗
US30 H4 AnalysisUS30 Showing a bullish Flag to 42,762. If it breaks this zone, Most probably can fly upto 44,000 and higher. Trading Analysis from 23-06-25 to 27-06-25. Take your risk under control and wait for market to break support or resistance on smaller time frame. Best of luck everyone and happy trading.🤗
DE40 H4 Analysis 23 Jul to 27 Jul - Bullish FlagDE40 Showing a bullish Flag 23,735 - 23,800. If it breaks this zone, Most probably can fly upto 24,466 and higher. Take your risk under control and wait for market to break support or resistance on smaller time frame. Best of luck everyone and happy trading.🤗
US Missiles Flyin'! Buy USD vs EUR GBP AUD NZD CAD CHF JPY!This is the FOREX futures outlook for the week of Jun 22-28th.
In this video, we will analyze the following FX markets:
USD Index, EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD, CAD, CHF, and JPY.
The USD is the world's reserve currency. When there are geo-political hot spots in the world, the USD sees inflows from investors. In light of US strikes against Iranians nuke sites last night, buying the USD versus other currencies is prudent and wise.
The USD should see more gains as long as the current tensions are high. If Iran comes back to the negotiations table, then the environment switches back to a risk on scenario, where the outflows from the USD go back into riskier assets like the stock market.
Enjoy!
May profits be upon you.
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The Market Sways and Trump sets a deadline ‼️ Hey hey, hope all is well, don't have too much time so just gonna keep this short and get at what we need right now, thanks for tuning in.
‼️ If you've been following the news then you understand that tensions are pretty high, the conflict in the Middle East is progressively getting worse and worse by the day with The United States now looking to play peacemaker between Iran and Israel.
‼️ Trump himself has given a two week deadline for him to decide on whether or not the United States will join the fight and bomb Iran which notably has the market shaken. Below I've added a link with a reference to an article which highlights the recent news and trumps deadline.
www.npr.org
‼️ Historically, we've seen trump do this before, he's no stranger to setting deadlines, especially when it comes to global conflicts. As the article also references, trump has done this before, take April 24th for example when a reporter asked Trump on his position with continuing military assistance for Ukraine: "You can ask that question in two weeks, and we'll see" responded Trump. It's become a tactic that Trump has used often throughout his term's prompting the question of whether or not we will really see him take action by the end of the two weeks or not. So we should take that understanding and take everything with a grain of salt.
‼️ The market itself is already use to the idea of war or joining a fight like we had to deal with when fighting started between Ukraine and Russia which shook the market before things ultimately got back to routine and the market was able to price in the war. I do have to note though that the global conflicts in Ukraine are much more different than those in the Middle East so that should be taken into consideration as well.
‼️ That being said on Saturday Trump made the announcement that the U.S had launched an attack on three of Iran's main nuclear sites signifying the U.S may be ready to join the fray. That or they have taken advantage of the high tensions to launch an attack of their own to beat at Iran's nuclear progress in order to delay, prevent them from acquiring a nuclear capability understandably.
‼️ I have to go but for technical analysis we'll be watching that 200 EMA for our bullish and bearish convergences, as well as news which will give us an idea of what way the market will head. Definitely one of those times to sit and watch how things play out, we've already come relatively close to retesting our all time high breaking above 6,000 so the market's definitely got some energy. We've dealt with this before but should the U.S really get itself involved with the war and bomb Iran then I would expect the global markets to react heavily. We've seen the U.S offer aid to countries such as Ukraine but when speaking about joining war that's a different matter entirely.
‼️ Definitely be mindful of the news the next few weeks as things progress and don't be to rash with your decision and choices, stick to what's worked and let's focus on what's worked. Paying mind to our indicators and strategies alongside much patience.
‼️ Thank you for tuning in with me as always, appreciate the constant support and wishing all the best. Feel free to keep tuned for more and thanks again.
Best regards,
~ Rock '
DXY BULLISH MOMENTUM ABOUT TO BEGIN !The recent price action shows lower highs and lower lows, indicating a bearish market structure. The latest move bounced slightly off the 98 level, suggesting it is being respected as support, further US attacked Iran called successful operation which in my opinion could give a boost to DXY . watch tightly !
TA BY MIRZA
NIFTY MAY HIT 25800 in JUNE 2025I am posting this just to record my analysis. I am using some logics to analyze and forecast moves. You may find it interesting that yes with true logic and observation on data pattern and chart pattern, yes it possible to forecast at some extend.
May be I will be wrong but it's all about probability, it's in 28% probability of winning but with a high reward.
Don't take any trade or financial action based on this. It's just a post of idea and knowledge sharing.
Thanks for reading.
Bye.
Falling expected of $$ Index.📉 DXY Analysis – June 22, 2025
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is showing clear signs of rejection from the Daily Time Frame Swing Supply Zone around 99.000. A confirmed Head & Shoulders pattern on the H1 chart suggests a short-term bearish reversal. Price action remains under the 100 EMA on the 4H, and the market continues to respect the descending trendline.
Technical Outlook:
🔻 Target 1: 98.000
🔻 Target 2: 94.650 (Major support zone)
📈 RSI divergence confirms downside pressure.
🧭 Fundamental View:
Fed Pivot on the Horizon: Softer inflation and weakening U.S. macro data (e.g. unemployment ticking up, sluggish GDP) increase the probability of a rate cut by Q3 2025.
Risk-On Sentiment Returning: Global risk appetite is improving, pulling capital away from safe-haven USD assets.
Geopolitical Tensions (US–Iran–Israel): Ongoing Middle East conflict is driving temporary spikes in DXY due to safe-haven demand, but if escalation slows or a ceasefire is reached, this could accelerate downside moves in the dollar.
Oil Impact: Rising oil prices due to conflict could hurt the U.S. economy further, worsening the Fed’s policy dilemma and adding pressure on the dollar.
Bias: Bearish
❌ Invalidation above 99.200
🔎 Events to Watch: Fed speeches, PCE inflation, geopolitical developments in the Middle East
#DXY #Forex #USD #Geopolitics #USIranIsrael #HeadAndShoulders #Fed #MacroAnalysis #Tradewithnajamahmed #TechnicalAnalysis #DollarIndex