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ASX intraday dips continues to attract buyers.AU200AUD - 24h expiry Trend line support is located at 8500. Further upside is expected although we prefer to buy into dips close to the 8500 level. A move through 8550 will confirm the bullish momentum. The measured move target is 8675. Short term RSI has turned positive. We look to Buy at 8500 (stop at 8440) Our profit targets will be 8660 and 8675 Resistance: 8550 / 8600 / 8675 Support: 8525 / 8500 / 8450 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
OANDA:AU200AUDLong
by OANDA
$SPX RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14 SP:SPX RECAP of Last Week Feb 10-14 Last week was inflation data week and Monday and Tuesday we opened with a gap up and then stayed flat from there until CPI on Wednesday where we dropped down and filled the Monday gap and bounced on the 50 Day Moving Average. After CPI (which came in HOTTT) and the bounce on the 50Day we took it to the downtrend and then pushed passed resistance And then saw resistance at ATH’s - not making new ATH’s even though we did see that in SPY Friday closed Flat, SPY 0.00%, SPX -0.01% Vix UP 4.06% and we closed within the implied move on the day. —— Watching just the 35EMA and the 30min 200MA we opened the week neutral and when price dropped to the 50DMA the 35EMA bounced on the 30min 200MA and we bounced it from there. —- Stupid Willy reading overbought with initial red signal line
SP:SPX
by SPYder_QQQueen_Trading
4
“Rheinmetall Pushes DAX Higher“ but until When?. Trend Lines and Moving Averages: • Moving Averages (MA): Check the 50-day and 200-day moving averages. DAX is trading above these averages and the 50-day is above the 200-day, that generally indicates an upward trend. A crossover (where the 50-day falls below the 200-day) might suggest a shift to a bearish trend. Stay tuned!! • Trend Lines: Draw trend lines connecting recent highs & lows. An upward-sloping trend line suggests bullish momentum, Which, in reality triggers an alarm for shortterm buyers to start selling and waiting for a pull back to buy cheaper by waiting downward-sloping bearish pressure. 2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): • An RSI above 70 typically indicates that the asset might be overbought, suggesting a possible pullback or consolidation.
FX:GER30Short
by Sal98
3
NAS100...Ever The Bullish Instrument...Part 18..Retracement ModeLike I have been saying for months... NAS100 is an eternally bullish instrument and the only way to trade it with 100% success is to trade your HL's to HH's. After looking that the daily timeframe closely, you will see that the last new low created was on October 31, 2024 followed by a new high on December 16, 2024. Since then the price has consolidated within that created range before finally registering a new ATH on Friday 2/14/2025. The easiest way to trade this instrument is to take your largest HL and exiting on your HH's... In the event that you get a consolidation move in the form of a LH, take your profits and wait for the next HL. What am I looking for? 1. Since taking profits from my buys, I am now waiting for the next HL before buying again. 2. Any retracement sells I am taking are only temporary to my largest HL as the market will always remain bullish Since I am not a signal service, please do not expect me to tell you when and how I trade, I am sharing this information so that you can see that it is possible to become a 100% trader with the right level of patience and consistency. I will repeat...profits taken at the HH (ATH) Now I wait for the next HL to be completed. Have a great trading week. HL's to HH's GUARANTEED! #oneauberstrategy #aubersystem #whywewait #zigzagtheory #patience #auberstrategy
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by Auberstrategy
15
NIKKEI FULL TRADE-ABLE SETUPSBelow are Dual-Scenario Trade Setups for three trader types—Short-Term, Swing, and Macro—based on the previously completed top-down technical analysis. Each category includes a Primary (Bias-Aligned) setup reflecting the overall bullish consolidation bias, plus an Alternate (Contrary) setup in case price breaks key levels and invalidates the primary scenario. 1. Short-Term Trader (Intraday to Multi-Day) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Aligns with the broader uptrend and the ongoing range support near 38,900–39,000 on lower timeframes. Looks for a short-term rally if price reclaims local resistance. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Await a 1H candle close above ~39,300 (near local lower-high pivot). • Look for an uptick in volume or a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart confirming momentum. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 39,000, just below the bullish order block / recent intraday support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~39,500 (immediate overhead supply). • TP2: ~39,700–39,800 (previous swing highs). • Risk Management: • Position size to risk 1–2% of trading capital, with an approximate 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio depending on final entry fill. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Activates if the support region (38,900–39,000) fails, flipping short-term bias to downside momentum. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Break and 1H close below 38,900, confirming invalidation of the bullish order block. • Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 becomes a secondary entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Just above 39,100 to cover a potential reclaim attempt. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~38,600 (recent minor support). • TP2: ~38,200 or deeper if intraday selling accelerates. • Risk Management: • Adjust position size for volatility around a breakdown; aim for a 1:2 R:R or better. 2. Swing Trader (Multi-Week) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Builds on the daily chart’s bullish structure near 38k support, looking for a potential run toward the 40k–41k resistance region. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Daily close above ~39,500 with sustained volume, suggesting an attempt at the next resistance band (40k+). • Bullish crossover on daily MACD or RSI crossing above ~55 can reinforce the entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Beneath 38,500 on a daily closing basis, below the recent consolidation floor to allow for volatility. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~40,000–40,200 (major daily supply zone). • TP2: ~41,000 (upper band of daily range). • Risk Management: • Aim for a moderate position size, seeking a 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trailing stops thereafter. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Triggered if daily price closes convincingly under 38k support, negating the bullish mid-range bias and opening downside toward deeper weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Daily close below ~38,000, plus follow-through selling on the next session. • This invalidates the bullish structure, suggesting a larger correction could unfold. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above 38,800 on a daily closing basis, covering a possible reclaim of the broken support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~37,000 (prior daily pivot and potential institutional demand). • TP2: ~36,000 or lower if the weekly chart’s deeper support is tested. • Risk Management: • Use swing-sized position. Target a 1:2 R:R minimum, reducing or trailing stops near key fib or structural supports. 3. Macro Trader (Multi-Month to Longer-Term) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Leverages the long-term uptrend visible on the weekly chart, anticipating that consolidation near ~38k–39k eventually resolves to the upside toward prior highs (~42k). • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Weekly close above 40k, demonstrating a clear breakout from the consolidation range. • Confirmation via weekly momentum indicators turning bullish (e.g., weekly MACD crossing positive). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 36k on a weekly closing basis, below major prior structure and the 100/200-week MAs. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~42,000–43,000 (historic weekly resistance). • TP2: Potential extension beyond 45k if the bull trend accelerates. • Risk Management: • Lower leverage or a smaller position. Potentially add on retests of the breakout zone. Seek a 1:3 or better R:R over a longer horizon. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Engaged if price fails at the top of the range and breaks down significantly below the multi-year trendline or major weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Weekly close below 35,500–36,000, confirming the breakdown of the bullish structure from a macro standpoint. • Negative slope on weekly MAs or a strongly negative MACD cross might reinforce the short bias. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above ~37,500 on a weekly closing basis, allowing some volatility above the broken support region. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~32,000–33,000 (major prior pivot / weekly volume node). • TP2: ~30,000 or lower if a full cyclical retrace unfolds. • Risk Management: • Employ conservative position sizing given the longer timescale. Aim for a balanced risk-reward approach, partial profit around TP1, and trailing stop for the remainder. Summary of the Dual-Scenario Approach • Primary Setups in each category lean bullish, reflecting the broader uptrend and stable support around 38k–39k. • Alternate (Contrary) Setups engage only if key supports break or resistance strongly rejects price, confirming a structural shift. This dual approach covers both sides of the market, ensuring readiness for continued consolidation/breakout to the upside or a sudden downside invalidation of the current range.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
Swiss 20 (SWI) / Swiss Franc Index QuoteKey Indicators On Trade Set Up In General 1. Push Set Up 2. Range Set up 3. Break & Retest Set Up Notes On Session # Swiss 20 (SWI) / Swiss Franc Index Quote - Double Formation * Trendline 1&2 | Continuation Area * ABC Flat | Wave Feature & LH's | Subdivision 1 - Triple Formation * Numbered Retracement 0.786 Area | Subdivision 2 * 012345 Wave & Entry Bias | Long Support | Subdivision 3 * Daily Time Frame | Trend Settings Condition Active Sessions On Relevant Range & Elemented Probabilities; European-Session(Upwards) - East Coast-Session(Downwards) - Asian-Session(Ranging) Conclusion | Trade Plan Execution & Risk Management On Demand; Overall Consensus | Buy
EASYMARKETS:SWICHFLong
by TradePolitics
NIKKEI FULL-TRADEABLE SETUPS 1. Short-Term Trader (Intraday to Multi-Day) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Aligns with the broader uptrend and the ongoing range support near 38,900–39,000 on lower timeframes. Looks for a short-term rally if price reclaims local resistance. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Await a 1H candle close above ~39,300 (near local lower-high pivot). • Look for an uptick in volume or a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart confirming momentum. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 39,000, just below the bullish order block / recent intraday support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~39,500 (immediate overhead supply). • TP2: ~39,700–39,800 (previous swing highs). • Risk Management: • Position size to risk 1–2% of trading capital, with an approximate 1:2 or 1:3 R:R ratio depending on final entry fill. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Activates if the support region (38,900–39,000) fails, flipping short-term bias to downside momentum. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Break and 1H close below 38,900, confirming invalidation of the bullish order block. • Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 becomes a secondary entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Just above 39,100 to cover a potential reclaim attempt. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~38,600 (recent minor support). • TP2: ~38,200 or deeper if intraday selling accelerates. • Risk Management: • Adjust position size for volatility around a breakdown; aim for a 1:2 R:R or better. 2. Swing Trader (Multi-Week) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Builds on the daily chart’s bullish structure near 38k support, looking for a potential run toward the 40k–41k resistance region. • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Daily close above ~39,500 with sustained volume, suggesting an attempt at the next resistance band (40k+). • Bullish crossover on daily MACD or RSI crossing above ~55 can reinforce the entry. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Beneath 38,500 on a daily closing basis, below the recent consolidation floor to allow for volatility. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~40,000–40,200 (major daily supply zone). • TP2: ~41,000 (upper band of daily range). • Risk Management: • Aim for a moderate position size, seeking a 1:2 or 1:3 R:R. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trailing stops thereafter. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Triggered if daily price closes convincingly under 38k support, negating the bullish mid-range bias and opening downside toward deeper weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Daily close below ~38,000, plus follow-through selling on the next session. • This invalidates the bullish structure, suggesting a larger correction could unfold. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above 38,800 on a daily closing basis, covering a possible reclaim of the broken support. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~37,000 (prior daily pivot and potential institutional demand). • TP2: ~36,000 or lower if the weekly chart’s deeper support is tested. • Risk Management: • Use swing-sized position. Target a 1:2 R:R minimum, reducing or trailing stops near key fib or structural supports. 3. Macro Trader (Multi-Month to Longer-Term) A) Primary (Bias-Aligned) Setup • Rationale: Leverages the long-term uptrend visible on the weekly chart, anticipating that consolidation near ~38k–39k eventually resolves to the upside toward prior highs (~42k). • Execution Parameters: • Entry Trigger: • Weekly close above 40k, demonstrating a clear breakout from the consolidation range. • Confirmation via weekly momentum indicators turning bullish (e.g., weekly MACD crossing positive). • Stop-Loss Placement: • Under 36k on a weekly closing basis, below major prior structure and the 100/200-week MAs. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~42,000–43,000 (historic weekly resistance). • TP2: Potential extension beyond 45k if the bull trend accelerates. • Risk Management: • Lower leverage or a smaller position. Potentially add on retests of the breakout zone. Seek a 1:3 or better R:R over a longer horizon. B) Alternate (Contrary) Setup • Rationale: Engaged if price fails at the top of the range and breaks down significantly below the multi-year trendline or major weekly support. • Execution Parameters: • Alternate Entry Trigger: • Weekly close below 35,500–36,000, confirming the breakdown of the bullish structure from a macro standpoint. • Negative slope on weekly MAs or a strongly negative MACD cross might reinforce the short bias. • Stop-Loss Placement: • Above ~37,500 on a weekly closing basis, allowing some volatility above the broken support region. • Take-Profit Levels: • TP1: ~32,000–33,000 (major prior pivot / weekly volume node). • TP2: ~30,000 or lower if a full cyclical retrace unfolds. • Risk Management: • Employ conservative position sizing given the longer timescale. Aim for a balanced risk-reward approach, partial profit around TP1, and trailing stop for the remainder. Summary of the Dual-Scenario Approach • Primary Setups in each category lean bullish, reflecting the broader uptrend and stable support around 38k–39k. • Alternate (Contrary) Setups engage only if key supports break or resistance strongly rejects price, confirming a structural shift. This dual approach covers both sides of the market, ensuring readiness for continued consolidation/breakout to the upside or a sudden downside invalidation of the current range.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
NIKKEI SWING SET UPS ## SWING-TRADING (MULTI-WEEK) NIKKEI SETUP ### Overall Context - **Market Sentiment & Positioning**: Institutional flows remain cautiously optimistic, with elevated hedging but steady inflows into key equity segments. The broader late-cycle expansion continues, while inflation shows signs of moderating. - **Monetary Policy & Macro Factors**: Central banks globally are shifting toward accommodative policies, generally supporting equities. However, pockets of economic slowdown or negative surprises in data releases can quickly alter sentiment. - **Technical Structure**: On the daily timeframe, the Nikkei has been building a bullish structure near the 38k zone, suggesting that dips into this area are often bought. Price attempts to push toward the 40k–41k region align with prior swing highs, forming a natural upside target for swing traders. --- ### A. PRIMARY (BULLISH) SWING SETUP 1. **Rationale** - Seeks to capitalize on the Nikkei’s ongoing daily uptrend, with price consolidating above 38k. - The daily momentum indicators and supportive macro environment suggest that further upside is possible if the index breaks its near-term resistance. 2. **Execution Parameters** - **Entry Trigger**: - Look for a daily close above ~39,500 on strong volume, indicating a renewed push toward the 40k region. - A bullish crossover in technical indicators (e.g., MACD, RSI above ~55) can provide additional confirmation. - **Stop-Loss Placement**: - Below ~38,500 on a daily closing basis, allowing room for typical market volatility while protecting against a deeper breakdown. - **Take-Profit Levels**: 1. **First Target**: Approximately 40,000–40,200, a significant daily resistance zone and psychological round number. 2. **Second Target**: Around 41,000, aligning with higher-end resistance if bullish momentum persists. - **Risk Management**: - Maintain a 1–2% account risk per trade. Position sizing should factor in the distance to your stop. - Upon reaching the first target, consider partial profit-taking and moving the stop-loss to break-even. 3. **Supporting Factors** - **Institutional Flows**: Large funds often continue buying dips in a stable macro environment, providing a cushion under prices. - **Liquidity & Rates**: The supportive, lower-rate backdrop can encourage investors to hold equities longer, favoring sustained uptrends. --- ### B. ALTERNATE (BEARISH) SWING SETUP 1. **Rationale** - Becomes actionable if the daily close undercuts ~38,000, suggesting the potential for a more pronounced corrective phase. - Negative macro catalysts or a notable shift in risk sentiment could accelerate selling and undermine the current range-bound bullish bias. 2. **Execution Parameters** - **Entry Trigger**: - A daily close below ~38,000, followed by a second day of downside confirmation or inability to regain that level. - **Stop-Loss Placement**: - Above ~38,800 on a daily closing basis, invalidating the bearish scenario if price reclaims the broken support. - **Take-Profit Levels**: 1. **First Target**: Near 37,000, which historically has acted as a pivot/demand area on the daily chart. 2. **Second Target**: Around 36,000, if downside momentum accelerates. - **Risk Management**: - Maintain a 1–2% risk allocation. - Consider partial profit at the first target and tighten stops if the market heads lower in a sustained fashion. 3. **Supporting Factors** - **Macro & Policy Shifts**: A sudden spike in inflation, unexpected central bank hawkishness, or severe economic data misses can quickly unwind bullish positions. - **Institutional Hedging Unwind**: If selling pressure builds, existing hedges may intensify the move lower as positions are adjusted or closed out. --- ## KEY RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES - **Data & Catalysts**: Swing traders should be mindful of earnings seasons, central bank announcements, and major geopolitical developments that can cause multi-day moves or gaps. - **Trend Confirmation & Timely Exits**: Use daily closes (as opposed to intraday fluctuations) to confirm breakouts or breakdowns. Partial profit-taking at predefined levels and trailing stops on the remaining position help lock in gains while allowing participation in extended runs. - **Sizing & Leverage**: With multi-day to multi-week holding periods, ensure that margin usage and stop placements accommodate overnight and weekend risk. --- ### CONCLUSION For swing traders in the Nikkei, the **primary** approach aims to ride the prevailing daily uptrend toward the 40k–41k region, while the **alternate** scenario provides a structured plan if price breaks below ~38,000, indicating a deeper pullback. By integrating broader institutional positioning and macroeconomic indicators into a technical framework, traders can position themselves for potential multi-week opportunities while maintaining a disciplined risk posture.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
NIKKEI SHORT TERM SET UPS SHORT-TERM (INTRADAY TO MULTI-DAY) NIKKEI SETUP Overall Context Institutional & Derivatives Backdrop: The broader market environment remains cautiously bullish, supported by stable liquidity and a net long gamma bias among dealers. This typically helps dampen extreme volatility and allows for orderly trend development. Macro Influences: The global economy sits in a late-cycle expansion phase, with moderating growth but still supportive monetary policies. Headline inflation is easing from prior peaks, and major central banks are leaning toward rate cuts, collectively creating a generally favorable backdrop for equities. Technical Structure: On lower timeframes, the Nikkei has established a significant support zone around 38,900–39,000. This zone has consistently attracted buyers, indicating that the short-term bullish case remains intact unless price decisively breaks below it. A. PRIMARY (BULLISH) SHORT-TERM SETUP Rationale Capitalizes on the bullish consolidation above 38,900–39,000, where price tends to bounce and maintain its uptrend on 1H/4H charts. With institutional flows still leaning risk-on, a break back above local resistance could trigger fresh buying interest. Execution Parameters Entry Trigger: Wait for a 1H candle close above approximately 39,300 (the local lower-high pivot). Look for a confirming signal such as a bullish engulfing bar on the 1H chart or an uptick in volume to validate momentum. Stop-Loss Placement: Beneath 39,000, just below the short-term bullish order block and the primary intraday support zone. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 39,500, a nearby overhead supply area where price has previously reacted. Second Target: Around 39,700–39,800, aligning with recent swing highs. Risk Management: Keep risk per trade to about 1–2% of total trading capital. Once price reaches the first target, consider partial profit-taking and moving the stop to break-even to protect gains. Supporting Factors A generally bullish sentiment across major equity indices, fueled by easing global monetary conditions and stable liquidity. The presence of robust institutional accumulation zones that tend to absorb selling around key supports. B. ALTERNATE (BEARISH) SHORT-TERM SETUP Rationale Activated if the short-term support at 38,900–39,000 fails to hold. A decisive break below this level may signal that short-term momentum is shifting negative, possibly driven by unexpected macro data or profit-taking. Execution Parameters Entry Trigger: A clear 1H close below 38,900, confirming breakdown of the bullish order block. Any retest that fails to reclaim 39,000 further strengthens the short setup. Stop-Loss Placement: Above 39,100, allowing some buffer for a potential false breakdown. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 38,600, a minor support that could provide a short-term bounce or partial profit zone. Second Target: Approximately 38,200 if selling pressure accelerates and the market continues to slide. Risk Management: Maintain a 1–2% risk limit. Consider partial profit-taking at the first target and use a trailing stop on any remaining position in case of further downside. Supporting Factors Institutional hedging through puts or a sudden shift in risk appetite can amplify downside moves once a key support is lost. Macro catalysts (e.g., negative economic surprises, renewed geopolitical tensions) could quickly erode bullish sentiment. KEY RISK & TRADE MANAGEMENT CONSIDERATIONS Event Catalysts: Keep track of economic releases and central bank announcements, as unexpected news can drive significant intraday volatility. Liquidity & Volatility: Even though overall liquidity is robust, short-term spikes in volatility can create price gaps. Adjust position size and stops accordingly. Partial Exits & Trailing Stops: Reduce risk once initial targets are hit. Securing gains while leaving room for extended moves can be an effective way to balance profit potential and capital preservation. CONCLUSION For short-term traders focusing on the Nikkei, the primary strategy leverages ongoing bullish momentum off the 38,900–39,000 support zone. The alternate strategy provides a clear roadmap should price break below this critical level, indicating a short-term trend reversal or corrective move. By integrating disciplined entries, well-placed stops, and prudent risk management, traders can navigate intraday to multi-day swings in the Nikkei efficiently.
SPREADEX:NIKKEILong
by EliteMarketAnalysis
GER40 MACRO SET UPS MACRO-TRADING (WEEKLY) GER40 SETUP Overall Context Long-Term Trend & Technicals: The weekly trend remains positive, with price generally trading above major moving averages (e.g., 50-, 100-, 200-week). Technical indicators such as trend strength and momentum suggest sustained bullishness, though extended rallies can encounter profit-taking. Institutional & Macro Backdrop: Institutional leverage is elevated, reflecting strong engagement in risk assets. A late-cycle expansion globally, paired with moderating inflation, has thus far supported equities. Europe’s slower growth compared to the U.S. is a point of caution, but overall liquidity remains ample. Policy Environment: Major central banks have signaled a tilt toward easing, which may keep downward pressure on short-term rates. This backdrop, combined with a relatively stable yield environment, can bolster equity valuations if economic data remains supportive. A. PRIMARY (BIAS-ALIGNED) SETUP Rationale Builds on the established weekly uptrend, indicating that longer-term market participants view pullbacks as potential buying opportunities. Macro factors—including declining inflation and generally accommodative monetary policies—sustain the underlying bullish case. Execution Parameters Entry Triggers: A weekly close above a prior swing high, typically around 22,800–23,000, confirming continued bullish momentum. Alternatively, a buy-on-dip approach if price retraces to a major weekly support zone (e.g., 19,700–20,000) and subsequently forms a bullish reversal pattern. Stop-Loss Placement: Beneath ~19,500 on a weekly closing basis, providing a buffer under a key weekly order block or major moving averages. This helps avoid getting whipsawed by normal market fluctuations. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 23,850, reflecting a higher extension based on weekly chart projections. Second Target (Optional): Approximately 25,000, should bullish momentum continue and the market enter a more extended rally phase. Risk Management: Adopt smaller position sizes befitting multi-week holds, limiting exposure to 1–2% of total capital. Consider adding to positions (pyramiding) if price breaks into new highs and retests them successfully as support. Supporting Factors Institutional Trend Following: Large funds typically hold positions for weeks to months, providing steadier upward pressure if the macro environment remains favorable. Policy & Liquidity Tailwinds: Continued central bank easing and ample liquidity help sustain the higher timeframe uptrend, making deep corrections less likely unless a major shift in sentiment occurs. B. ALTERNATE (CONTRARY) SETUP Rationale Activated if the weekly structure convincingly breaks down—such as a decisive weekly close below 19,700, suggesting a reversal in long-term trend dynamics or a deeper correction. Could be driven by negative macro catalysts: a sudden rise in inflation, aggressive policy changes, or a significant geopolitical escalation. Execution Parameters Entry Trigger: A weekly candle closes well below ~19,700, then fails to regain that level on a retest (now acting as resistance). Stop-Loss Placement: Above ~20,000, invalidating the short if price recovers into the prior trading range. Take-Profit Levels: First Target: Around 18,000, tied to a historically significant weekly support area. Second Target (Optional): Near 17,000, if downside momentum strengthens and the market transitions into a sustained bearish phase. Risk Management: Keep total risk around 1–2% on this position. Remain prepared to exit swiftly if a false breakdown occurs and the market reclaims the broken support. Supporting Factors Macro Disruptions: A destabilizing shift—like a policy surprise, economic recession signals, or a global risk-off event—can rapidly deflate bullish sentiment. Institutional Unwinding: High leverage can exacerbate selling if funds de-risk en masse following a weekly close below major supports. KEY RISK MANAGEMENT NOTES Longer Holding Periods: Macro trades often span multiple weeks or months; ensure margin use and stops accommodate potentially large swings. Major Catalysts: Central bank statements, systemic geopolitical events, and global economic indicators can create sizable weekly gaps, requiring wider protective stops. Scaling & Exit Strategy: Consider partial profit-taking at the first target to lock in gains. For the remainder, a trailing stop can help capture further upside while limiting downside risk. CONCLUSION The macro (weekly-focused) GER40 setup outlines a primary bullish scenario aligned with a long-standing uptrend, as well as a clearly defined alternate plan should key support levels give way. By combining strategic entries near crucial technical zones with thorough risk management, macro traders can position themselves to capture major market trends while staying alert to potential regime shifts that could trigger a sustained decline.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
2
UK100 (FTSE)-Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasMidterm forecast: 8380.25 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend. Technical analysis: A trough is formed in daily chart at 8006.10 on 12/20/2024, so more gains to resistance(s) 8833.83, 9000.00, 9100.00 and more heights is expected. Take Profits: 8664.21 8765.00 8833.83 9000.00 9100.00 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . . . . Hit the 'BOOST' button 👍 . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback in the comments below! (e.g., What did you find most useful? How can we improve?) 🙏 Your support is appreciated! Now, it's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
ICMARKETS:UK100Long
by ForecastCity
28
GER40 Medium Term Setups Medium-Term (Daily) GER40 – Analysis & Signals --- Market & Institutional Context Macro: Easing inflation and accommodative liquidity conditions continue to support equity markets. Europe’s slower growth vs. the U.S. means the GER40 can be more sensitive to negative local data. Institutional & Derivatives: Overall supportive flow, but hedging remains elevated. This environment can still present favorable swing opportunities, provided key supports hold. --- Primary (Bullish) Swing Setup Technical Rationale The daily chart shows higher highs and higher lows, sustained above major moving averages. Institutional sentiment, paired with macro tailwinds, suggests buying dips into established support levels or breakouts above recent swing highs. Entry Points Breakout Entry: A daily close above ~22,800 confirms continued bullish momentum. Pullback Entry: Bullish reversal signals off 21,700–21,900—a known demand zone/order block. Stop-Loss Beneath 21,700 to allow room below key daily support and avoid minor noise/whipsaws. Targets First Target (TP1): 23,200–23,300 (short-term extension) Second Target (TP2): 23,850, if bullish momentum persists Risk Management Risk 1–2% of account capital. Consider partial profit at TP1, move stops to breakeven on remaining position. --- Alternate (Bearish) Swing Setup Technical Rationale Engages if the GER40 breaks its bullish structure on the daily timeframe. Negative economic data or unexpected shifts in sentiment can accelerate selling if key supports give way. Entry Trigger A decisive daily close under ~21,700, followed by a failed retest of that zone (now acting as resistance). Stop-Loss Above 22,000, invalidating the short if price re-enters the previous range. Targets First Target (TP1): Around 21,000 Second Target (TP2): ~20,500 if downside momentum accelerates Risk Management 1–2% risk allocation. Scale out partial positions at TP1, tighten stops if the market recovers above broken support. --- Additional Risk Notes Overnight Events: Swing trades often span multiple days/weeks. Stay mindful of economic data releases, central bank decisions, and geopolitical news—any of which could create gaps. Institutional Hedging: Elevated put-buying may exacerbate downside once pivotal levels break. Trail & Scale: When price moves favorably, partial profit-taking and trailing stops can lock in gains while letting profits run. --- Disclaimer This analysis is for educational purposes and not financial advice. Make sure to conduct your own due diligence and manage risk appropriately. More detailed insights, including live trade management and ongoing macro commentary, are available in our premium channels.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
GER40 SHORT TERM SETUP. GER40 Overview & Signals Market & Institutional Context Macro Environment: Moderately bullish, supported by easing inflation and accommodative policy trends. Europe’s growth is slower than the U.S., but risk appetite remains high overall. Institutional Positioning: Balanced but leaning bullish, with dealers net long gamma (helping reduce extreme volatility). Put-buying is present, indicating hedging activity—important to watch if price breaches key supports. Liquidity & Volatility: Ample liquidity generally, though leverage is elevated. That can enhance directional moves when key levels break. --- Primary (Bullish) Short-Term Setup Technical Bias The 1H/4H charts show higher highs and higher lows. Institutional sentiment backs a near-term bullish structure unless it invalidates key support. Trade Entry Signal: Look for a decisive 1H close above the 22,600–22,620 order block, then a break above ~22,800 on solid volume/confirmation. Stop-Loss Place stops just below 22,400, protecting against minor intraday pullbacks while keeping risk contained. Targets TP1: 22,950–23,000 (round number + minor Fib extension) TP2 (if momentum persists): 23,100–23,200 Risk Management Risk 1–2% of account size. Consider partial profit at TP1 and trail stops to breakeven or slightly in profit for any remaining position. Why It Works Macro Tailwind: Improving global risk appetite, stable short-term funding, and supportive derivatives flows. Reduced Volatility Spikes: Net long gamma positioning typically dampens extreme selloffs. --- Alternate (Bearish) Short-Term Setup Technical Bias Activated if the bullish structure fails, signaling a momentum shift on any negative catalyst (economic data miss, geopolitical risk, etc.). Trade Entry Signal: A solid 1H candle close below 22,400, followed by a retest that fails to reclaim 22,500. Stop-Loss Above 22,600 to invalidate a short if buyers push price back into the previous range. Targets TP1: ~22,200 (recent volume support) TP2 (if downward momentum accelerates): ~21,900 Risk Management Keep risk at 1–2%. Take partial profit at TP1, tighten stops on the remainder. Why It Works Institutional Hedging: Elevated put-buying can exacerbate a down-move if key supports fail. Macro Risks: European data disappointments or risk-off catalysts could drive a near-term pullback. --- Final Notes on Execution Event Catalysts: Watch central bank commentary, inflation data, and geopolitical news flow, as any surprises may shift sentiment swiftly. Partial Profits & Trailing Stops: Always consider scaling out at the first target to lock in gains, then let the remainder ride if momentum remains strong. Position Sizing: Align trade size with stop distance and overall volatility. Elevated leverage means bigger moves when technical levels break. --- Disclaimer: These insights reflect an analysis of short-term market conditions and are not financial advice. Always perform your own due diligence and manage risk responsibly.
PEPPERSTONE:GER40Long
by EliteMarketAnalysis
1
2025 Market Outlook - Cautiously Bullish (Important Bar Counts)Hey Everybody, Thanks for checking out the video. I'm reviewing all major instruments, US and Non US. US has carried the financial markets since 2020 and 2022 and this year out of the gate we're seeing big runs in "uninvestable" spaces like Europe and China. I say that jokingly because of how bad everything thought non US assets were, but here we are watching DAX, FTSE, and HSI running to double digit gains while the US lags behind. Will the US catch up and the global economy tide rise to lift all boats or are we truly seeing a catch up trade that will have headwinds uncertainties a plenty? Time will tell. This week is a holiday shortened trading week, RBA and RBNZ expected to cut rates, Europe and US printing PMI on Friday. BABA and BIDU earnings this week (China related), and NVDA earnings next week (#2 market cap in US). I discuss the big bar counts that I'm watching closely on SPY, SPX, XSP, RSP, NDX, QQQ, DIA, NVDA, META, NFLX, and others that I believe technically will matter for limited upside momentum without a bigger pause, snapback or correction ahead. Cautiously optimistic is a perfect play for 2025. I'm off to a good start for the year and intend to keep that way without chasing or doing anything silly. Thank for watching.
SP:SPX
by ChrisPulver