BankNifty levels - May 09, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
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Market indices
Nifty levels - May 09, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
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DOLLARThe Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting on May 7, 2025, resulted in the decision to hold the federal funds rate steady at 4.25% to 4.50%, maintaining the current policy stance amid rising economic uncertainty primarily driven by trade tensions and tariff impacts.
Key Points from the FOMC Decision and Statement:
The Fed acknowledged that economic activity continues to expand at a solid pace, with the labor market remaining strong and unemployment stable at low levels.
Inflation remains somewhat elevated, with core inflation around 2.6%.
The Committee highlighted increased uncertainty about the economic outlook, especially due to the effects of President Trump’s tariffs, which could raise both inflation and unemployment risks.
The Fed is taking a data-dependent, wait-and-see approach, prepared to adjust policy as needed based on incoming economic information.
The Fed continues to reduce its holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities as part of monetary policy normalization.
Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Fed does not plan preemptive rate cuts and will monitor how tariffs affect inflation and growth before making further moves.
Market and Economic Context:
Despite President Trump’s calls for rate cuts to stimulate growth amid tariff pressures, the Fed resisted, citing the need to balance its dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability.
The Fed noted the risk of stagflation-a combination of slowing growth and rising inflation-due to tariff-induced supply chain disruptions and pricing pressures.
Market expectations shifted after the meeting, with traders now pricing in a lower probability of near-term rate cuts, pushing the first likely cut to July or later in 2025
Summary of Geopolitical and Economic Risks Impacting the Fed’s Decision:
Trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China remain a major source of uncertainty, affecting business confidence, supply chains, and inflation dynamics.
Inflation pressures from tariffs and supply disruptions complicate the Fed’s inflation targeting.
Labor market strength provides some support for the economy, but downside risks from trade policies are growing.
The Fed is navigating a delicate balance between controlling inflation and avoiding a sharp economic slowdown or rise in unemployment.
In brief:
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady reflects caution amid mixed economic signals and geopolitical uncertainty, especially tariff-related risks. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to adjust policy as clearer data emerge on inflation, employment, and growth impacts from trade policies.
Impact on the US Dollar
The dollar stabilized and experienced a slight "micro bounce" ahead of the Fed meeting, partly due to optimism about upcoming U.S.-China trade talks.
However, broad skepticism remains about the dollar’s strength amid economic uncertainty and ongoing capital outflows from U.S. assets by major Asian investors.
Market consensus expects the dollar’s longer-term weakness to persist, as investors weigh the risks of slower growth and tariff-related disruptions.
Impact on Bond Markets
The Fed’s steady rate decision and cautious outlook have led to flattening or modest declines in Treasury yields, as investors price in delayed rate cuts and economic slowdown risks.
Uncertainty about trade policy and inflation is keeping bond markets volatile, with investors seeking safe-haven assets amid stagflation concerns.
Impact on Gold Prices
Gold prices have been supported by safe-haven demand amid geopolitical and trade tensions, rising inflation concerns, and a weaker dollar environment.
The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady without signaling imminent cuts keeps real yields low or negative, which is bullish for gold.
Tariff-related inflation and geopolitical risks (including U.S.-China tensions, Taiwan conflict risks, and Middle East instability) continue to underpin gold’s appeal as a hedge.
DAX Intra-day Analysis – 08 May 2025Market participants are closely monitoring the escalating geopolitical tensions between India and Pakistan, as well as ongoing global trade discussions—particularly between the U.S. and China. These factors may influence sentiment and market volatility throughout the session.
Possible intra-day price behavior to consider:
• If the index approaches the 23,600 level but fails to sustain above it—especially if accompanied by technical signs of slowing momentum—some traders may interpret this as a scenario where the index could revisit the 23,100 zone.
• A sustained move below the 23,000 level could potentially open the way for further downside exploration toward the 22,400 area, which has previously acted as a zone of interest.
• In the event the index approaches 22,400 and shows signs of holding above it, a short-term bounce toward 23,100 could be observed. Alternatively, if downward pressure persists and the 22,400 level does not hold, attention may shift toward the 21,900 area as the next significant support.
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US500 - Which way will the stock market go?!The index is trading above the EMA200 and EMA50 on the four-hour timeframe and is trading in its ascending channel. If the index moves down towards the specified demand zone, one can look for further S&P buy positions with a good risk-reward ratio.
In its meeting last night, the U.S. Federal Reserve decided to keep the federal funds rate steady within the 4.25% to 4.50% range. This decision comes amid growing concerns about simultaneous rises in inflation and unemployment, particularly driven by the tariff policies of the Trump administration.
This marks the third consecutive time this year that the Fed has held rates unchanged, reflecting mounting economic uncertainty and fears of stagflation.Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that the combination of high inflation, slow economic growth, and rising unemployment could lead the economy into stagflation. He noted that newly imposed tariffs could delay the disinflation process for up to a year or more.
The Trump administration has introduced steep tariffs, including a 145% levy on imports from China. These measures have contributed to rising prices and slower economic growth, placing additional strain on monetary policymakers.
Following the Fed’s announcement, stock markets exhibited volatility. The S&P 500 initially fell but ended the day higher. Bond yields declined, while the U.S. dollar strengthened.
Powell emphasized that future monetary policy decisions will be heavily data-dependent, and the central bank stands ready to act swiftly if necessary. He acknowledged that the economic outlook remains uncertain, requiring cautious and adaptive policy management.
Faced with escalating uncertainty and inflationary pressures stemming from new trade measures, the Fed has adopted a cautious stance. Given the current mixed economic indicators, the central bank is expected to maintain its interest rate policy until the economic picture becomes clearer.
Economists at Goldman Sachs have issued a warning that U.S. inflation is on the rise and may reach 3.8% by the end of 2025. According to their analysis, the weakening of the U.S. dollar and the implementation of tariff policies are the main drivers of increased inflationary pressure. Additionally, changes in import demand could elevate production costs and further intensify price increases.
The Wall Street Journal reported that new tariffs may raise the prices of smartphones and laptops by up to 30%. Contrary to popular belief, this inflationary impact may not be temporary and could result in sustained upward pressure on prices.
Meanwhile, ahead of the FOMC meeting, Alphabet (Google’s parent company) saw its stock plunge over 8%, falling to $149.50. Eddy Cue, a senior executive at Apple, disclosed that for the first time in April, user activity on browsers and search engines had declined. In response, Apple is exploring the integration of AI-powered search into its browsers—a move that could pose a serious threat to Google’s advertising revenue.
Simultaneously, President Trump announced he would not enforce the AI content restriction law, initially introduced during the Biden administration and scheduled to take effect on May 15. This decision comes just before his trip to the Middle East, where countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have voiced frustration over chip access restrictions.
Trump administration officials are currently drafting new legislation aimed at tightening control over the export of advanced chips. This initiative may form part of a broader agreement, as the UAE has pledged to invest up to $1.4 trillion in U.S. technology and infrastructure over the next decade.
Nifty preparing itself for Big Momentum Today 8may 2025 Nifty traded in just tiny range even on expiry Day. so, what will be next Move?
it is ready for bearish momentum ?
First reason: I have noticed multiple weakness through Wick which is representing by arow on chart.
Second reason: whenever market traded in narrow range (around 8-10 hourly candle) in past few days it gave breakdown represented drawing 4 yellow area see on chart.
DXY Rebounds on Fed Pause and Trade Deal Hopes.Macro approach:
- DXY edged higher, recovering earlier losses as the Fed held rates and Powell was cautious.
- Jun cut hopes faded, though markets expect three cuts this year, potentially lifting DXY short-term.
- A potential US-UK trade deal also helps ease bearish sentiment on the dollar.
Technical approach:
- DXY is hovering around the key resistance at around 100.200, confluence with EMA21, indicating a potential short-term correction.
- If DXY closes above the resistance at 100.200, the price may continue to claim to retest the following resistance at 101.800.
- Conversely, closing below the current trendline may lead DXY to retest the swing low at around 98.000.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
When Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction - Its implicationWhen Stocks & Bond Move Opposite Direction what does it mean?
We have observed a divergence between the stock and bond markets since 2020. While U.S. Treasury bonds entered a bear zone, the stock markets continued their upward climb. What are the implications of this decoupling?
Will the stock market resume its uptrend and hit new highs? Or is this merely a retracement before further downward pressure?
Micro E-mini Nasdaq Futures and Options
Ticker: MNQ
Minimum fluctuation:
0.25 index points = $0.50
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Technical Breakdown on US 100 1H TimeframeTechnical Breakdown on US100 1H Chart using Volume Profile, Gann, and CVD + ADX
1. Key Observations (Volume, Gann & CVD + ADX Focused)
a) Volume Profile Insights:
Value Area High (VAH): 20,080
Value Area Low (VAL): 19,720
Point of Control (POC):
Recent Session: 19,828.32
Previous Session: 19,760.96
High-volume nodes: Between 19,750 – 19,830 (acceptance zone with strong historical interest).
Low-volume gaps: 19,840 – 19,950 and above 20,100 (potential fast-move areas).
b) Liquidity Zones:
Stop Clusters Likely at:
Above 20,100 (psychological level and channel top).
Below 19,720 (value rejection zone).
Order Absorption Zones:
19,828 – 19,850 shows thick absorption based on CVD response and price stall.
c) Volume-Based Swing Highs/Lows:
Swing High: 20,080 (volume spike with slight wick rejection).
Swing Low: 19,700 (demand step-in area).
d) CVD + ADX Indicator Analysis:
Trend Direction: Uptrend (strong green candle series with rising CVD).
ADX Strength:
ADX > 20 with DI+ > DI- → Confirmed uptrend.
CVD Confirmation:
Rising CVD + bullish price action → Strong demand from market buyers, aligning with breakout above POC.
2. Support & Resistance Levels
a) Volume-Based Levels:
Support:
VAL: 19,720
POC (Current): 19,828.32
POC (Previous): 19,760.96
Resistance:
VAH: 20,080
Round number & psychological level: 20,100
b) Gann-Based Levels:
Gann Swing Low: 19,700
Gann Swing High: 20,080
Key Retracement Levels (Range: 19,700 – 20,080):
1/2: 19,890
1/3: 19,827
2/3: 19,953
3. Chart Patterns & Market Structure
a) Trend: Bullish (confirmed by rising ADX + CVD).
b) Notable Patterns:
Breakout from consolidation range above POC (strong volume confirmation).
Ascending channel structure supporting higher lows.
No divergence in CVD → healthy trend continuation signal.
4. Trade Setup & Risk Management
a) Bullish Entry (If CVD + ADX confirm uptrend):
Entry Zone: 19,828 – 19,850 (retest of POC/consolidation base)
Targets:
T1: 20,080 (VAH/Swing High)
T2: 20,200 (Channel Top)
Stop-Loss (SL): 19,700 (below swing low)
RR: ~1:2.3 minimum
b) Bearish Entry (If CVD + ADX flip bearish later):
Entry Zone: 20,080 – 20,100 (failure to break channel top)
Target:
T1: 19,828 (POC retest)
Stop-Loss (SL): 20,150 (above channel breakout zone)
RR: ~1:2
c) Position Sizing: Risk only 1-2% of capital per trade. Avoid oversized trades in extended trends.
US30 Pushing Into Resistance Again – 08/05/2025🧨 US30 Pushing Into Resistance Again – 08/05/2025 🧨
US30 is knocking on the resistance door again! 📈
After grinding up from 39,775 and defending the key 40,700–40,800 zone, price is now challenging the 41,300–41,400 area, which rejected price earlier this week.
Momentum is holding but slowing slightly — we’re stuck between strong support and a heavy ceiling 💥. EMAs still bullish, but risk of a fakeout is growing if we don’t break soon…
🔍 Updated Key Zones:
🔹 Resistance = 41,300 – 41,400
🔹 Support = 40,694 – 40,800
🔹 Last higher low = 39,775
🔹 EMA 20 + EMA 50 still trending up — short-term bullish bias ✅
🎯 Trade Scenarios to Watch:
🔺 Break + hold above 41,400 = potential expansion toward 41,800–42,000 zone
🔻 Fail to hold 40,700 → could trigger dump back toward 39,775
📉 Lose 39,775 = confirmed shift in structure → shorts into 38,800–39,200 🔥
🧠 Trader Mindset Reminder:
🟡 Don’t chase up here — wait for breakout confirmation or rejection
🟢 EMAs are still your friend → trend is your ally
❌ Avoid fakeouts — this zone has trapped before!
Bullish continuation?Dow Jones (US30) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance which lines up with the 145% Fibonacci extension.
Pivot: 40,653.80
1st Support: 39,774.46
1st Resistance: 42,181.26
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Understanding the Crab's Potential Ascent Before the DescentCurrent market analysis suggests a potential temporary surge in the Nasdaq index, colloquially referred to as a "crab walk," possibly reaching a level of 20.4 before a significant correction.
While this upward movement may present short-term opportunities, it is crucial to recognize its potential transience.
DOLLAR INDEX (#DXY): Classic Trend-Following PatternI spotted a nice bearish pattern on Dollar Index chart on a daily timeframe.
The price formed a bearish flag pattern.
Trading in a bearish trend, the violation of a support of the flag is a strong
trend-following signal.
We can expect a movement down to 98.95
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(08/05/2025)Flat opening in banknifty. After opening if banknifty sustain above 54550 level then expected upside movement upto 54950+ level in opening session. Downside movement expected if banknifty starts trading below 54450 level. Downside 54050 level will act as an important support for today's session. Any major downside only expected below this support level.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 08/05/2025Flat opening expected in index. After opening it will face major resistance at 24500 level. If reversal from this level can give downside movement upto 24250 support level. Strong upside rally only expected if nifty starts trading and sustain above 24500 level. Currently nifty consolidating in between range of 24250-24450 levels.