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Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 99.61 1st Support: 99.36 1st Resistance: 100.03 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
SNP500/EquitiesThe current macroeconomic backdrop, shaped by the Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady at 4.25%–4.50%, highlights growing concerns over economic risks, particularly stemming from trade tensions and inflationary pressures triggered by tariffs. Despite a strong April jobs report, the Fed is signaling increased caution, warning that the risks of both higher inflation and higher unemployment have risen. Treasury yields are reflecting this shift in sentiment, with the 2-year yield falling to 3.76% and the 10-year yield at 4.29%, suggesting that markets are beginning to price in a slower growth environment and potential future rate cuts. In this environment, real estate investments are proving resilient. The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) is up +3.14% year-to-date, outperforming broader equity indices such as the S&P 500 (SPX), down –4.69%, and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX), down –6.19%. Real estate typically benefits from a stable or declining interest rate environment, as lower yields reduce the discount rate applied to property cash flows and enhance the appeal of steady income-generating assets like REITs. Additionally, real estate assets—especially in sectors like multi-family housing and industrial logistics—can provide some inflation protection through lease repricing and consistent demand. By contrast, the broader equity markets are showing signs of strain. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have delivered negative returns year-to-date, reflecting investor unease around earnings growth, margin pressures from tariffs, and general macroeconomic uncertainty. Defensive equity sectors are faring better—Financials (XLF) are up +2.75%, and Consumer Staples and Health Care are showing modest gains. Technology and cyclical sectors such as Materials (XLB –0.39%) and Energy (XLE –0.30%) are underperforming, indicating a rotation into safer assets. The VIX (Volatility Index) at 24.72 confirms heightened risk aversion among investors. Given this backdrop, a prudent portfolio strategy for the next three to six months would prioritize capital preservation, income generation, and inflation protection. A recommended tactical allocation might include 30–35% in real estate, leveraging XLRE and potentially private REITs in stable segments. Allocating 25–30% to defensive equity sectors, such as financials and consumer staples, can provide exposure to more stable earnings. Exposure to high-beta sectors like technology should be limited to 10–15%, given continued volatility and valuation risks. Holding 20–25% in cash or short-term Treasuries provides flexibility, especially with yields still elevated, while a 5–10% allocation to alternatives such as gold (XAUUSD +28.90% YTD) or inflation-protected securities like TIPs adds a useful macro hedge. Looking forward, real estate is likely to remain attractive if the Fed maintains a dovish tilt or initiates rate cuts later in the year. Sectors with strong fundamentals, such as housing and logistics, should continue to perform well. Equities, however, are expected to remain volatile, with upside capped unless trade uncertainty is resolved or corporate earnings show resilience. Investors should favor value-oriented, dividend-paying stocks with lower volatility. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar may soften gradually as rate expectations fall and inflation hedges rise in importance, further supporting real asset classes.
OANDA:SPX500USD
by Buranku
S&P500: Hit its 4H MA50. Can it provide a price push?S&P500 (SPX) is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 52.949, MACD = 19.450, ADX = 31.038) as the index just hit its 4H MA50, which is holding since April 22nd. This is at the bottom of the 4H Channel Up so as long as it holds, the signal is bullish. In the meantime the index again hit the P1 level, which was previously a Resistance. As long as this demand zone holds, we are aiming at the R2 level (TP = 5,790). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
CAPITALCOM:US500Long
by InvestingScope
1
S&P 500 Monthly : Major Correction or Reloading Phase?Wavervanir_International_LLC | May 7, 2025 The S&P 500 may have just completed a long-wave ABC correction on the monthly chart. Price rejected the 0.886 Fib zone (~5693) and is now printing bearish momentum with a distribution-style volume spike. 🔍 Bearish View (65%) Wave (C) likely peaked. Momentum divergence + high-volume rejection. Target zone: 4611 (0.5 Fib + prior structure support). 📈 Bullish View (35%) Higher low above 5400 + clean breakout above 5700 could target 6144. 📊 Market at an inflection point—watch liquidity, macro signals, and Fed tone closely. #SPX #SP500 #TechnicalAnalysis #Fibonacci #ElliottWave #Macro #BearishOutlook #BullishScenario #TradingView #Wavervanir
FX:SPX500Short
by Wavervanir_International_LLC
Hanzo : NAS100 15m: Breakout Zone Confirmed After Liquidity Trap🆚 Nas100 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup 🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M) —————— 💯 Main Focus: Bullish After Break at 19950 We are watching this zone closely. 💯 Main Focus: Bearish After Break at 19715 We are watching this zone closely. ——— 👌 Market Signs (15M TF): • Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 19930 • Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 19650 • Strong Rejections seen at: ➗ 19750 – Major support / Key level ➗ 20100 – Proven resistance
FX:NAS100
by Path_Of_Hanzo
Trade Idea: US30 Long (BUY LIMIT)Technical Overview Daily Chart (Macro View): • Trend: Recent bounce from major support near ~37,600 after a sharp selloff. • MACD: Still bearish but showing early signs of momentum reversal (histogram rising). • RSI: Neutral (~53.8), coming up from oversold territory—indicative of potential recovery. • Price: Holding above 41,000, a key psychological level and previous consolidation zone. 15-Minute Chart (Swing/Short-Term View): • Price: Forming higher lows after a significant bounce. • MACD: Nearing a bullish crossover. • RSI: Moderately bullish at ~56.87. 3-Minute Chart (Entry Precision): • Price: Recently broke above short-term moving average. • MACD: Bullish with strong histogram momentum. • RSI: Slightly overbought (~52.90), but not extreme. ⸻ Fundamental Context (as of May 2025): • Market sentiment is cautiously bullish after Fed pause hints and solid tech earnings. • Inflation pressures are easing slightly, supporting risk-on sentiment. • Recent volatility due to rate expectations and macro data; however, markets are recovering from sharp selloffs. ⸻ Bias: Long Position US30 shows a strong recovery setup with macro support, bullish lower-timeframe confirmation, and neutral-to-bullish momentum indicators. Entry (Buy Limit): 40,960 – small retracement near the short-term EMA and previous breakout on the 3-min chart. Stop Loss (SL): 40,700 – below the recent swing low and psychological round level. Take Profit (TP): 41,560 – retest of minor resistance from earlier consolidation area, offering a solid risk-reward. FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
STOCKS | MARKET WATCH | Why Long-Term Investing Still Wins🤯 The start of 2025 was a bit of a rollercoaster for stocks. Global markets got seriously rattled in the first few months by some sudden jitters. When President Trump announced those aggressive tariffs, it caused significant concern among investors, sending stock markets tumbling and prompting a flight to safety. Like Reuters said, April was "epic" for crazy market swings – the VIX fear index shot up to levels we hadn't seen since 2020 and 2008, and then just as quickly dropped back down. Markets went wild. But then, by late April, the panic kind of ... disappeared. Once President Trump paused the implementation of the most severe tariffs, stocks bounced back pretty sharply. The S&P 500 recovered most of what it lost. After that nasty drop, it ended April only about 5% lower than it started the year. The Nasdaq, with all its tech stocks, pretty much ended the month where it began. So, after all that drama, major US stock markets weren't far from their all-time highs, showing how fast that "fear" can vanish. 📊 How key indexes did S&P 500 (USA): 📉 Dipped in early April but bounced back late. Ended April around -5% for the year, after almost hitting a bear market. Nasdaq Composite (USA): 📉 Similar story. Tanked on the tariff scare, then rallied when things calmed down, ending April pretty much flat for the year. MSCI World (Global developed markets): 🤷‍♂️ Had its ups and downs along with the US markets. By the end of April, it was pretty much flat for the year – no big moves for the overall world index. MSCI Emerging Markets: 📉 Didn't do as well as developed markets. Asian stocks, especially, took a hit early April because of trade war worries, so this index lagged, even though it recovered a bit by the end of the month. FTSE/JSE All-Share (South Africa): 🇿🇦 The odd one out! The JSE jumped about +5% in the first three months of 2025, mainly thanks to mining stocks. It even hit a record high in March. The April craziness shook it up too, but because it did so well earlier, it was still slightly up for the year by late April. Takeaway? Global stocks were jumpy, but they mostly recovered. By late April, most major indexes were close to where they started the year. South Africa's market was the exception, having a good first quarter that helped it weather the April storm. ⏳ Staying invested beats trying to be a stock Wizard All this back and forth can make investors nervous. You start thinking, "Should I just sell now before it drops even more?" But history usually says that's the wrong move. Just sticking with it usually works out better than trying to guess the market's next move. BlackRock's iShares recently pointed out that "waiting for the 'right time' to invest might mean missing out on the best days," while staying invested lets you benefit from that "compounding" thing and get through the short-term bumps. Simply put, if you sit on the sidelines during big swings, you often miss the big rebound days. One study even showed that if you missed just the five best market days over 20 years, you'd end up with way less money than someone who just stayed in the market. The legendary investor Charlie Munger put it simply: "The first rule of compounding: never interrupt it unnecessarily." Trying to jump in and out of the market around all the volatility is super tough – the biggest up days often follow right after the biggest down days. On the other hand, patient investors who just ride out the noise tend to grab more of those long-term gains. After all, with compounding, those small gains build on each other over time. 💰 The awesome power of compounding over time Compounding basically means the sooner you invest and the longer you stay invested, the more your returns build on each other like a snowball rolling downhill. For example, the total return JSE All-Share index was up almost 23% over the last year. That kind of gain shows how just staying invested during good times can really grow your wealth. If you'd panicked and pulled out, you would have missed most of that growth. Over longer periods, like 5 to 10 years, the JSE has almost always gone up. The big lesson is that it's about "time in the market," not trying to "time the market," that really makes your returns grow and smooths out those bumps along the way. 🌍 What's driving the markets and the economy There were a few big things happening that explain why the markets moved the way they did. 🇺🇸 US GDP Slowdown: The US economy actually shrank a bit in the first quarter of 2025. A lot of people blamed this on a big surge in imports as businesses bought stuff ahead of those potential President Trump tariffs. Even though this news spooked the stock market briefly in late April, underlying consumer spending was still looking pretty decent. 📈 US Company Profits: On the bright side, US companies reported some pretty strong profits. Analysts were expecting good growth in earnings for the S&P 500 in the first quarter, even with the economic slowdown. And it turned out even better – a lot of companies beat expectations, and overall earnings were up quite a bit from last year. This helped keep stock prices from falling too much during the pullbacks. 🇪🇺 European Spending Boost: In Europe, governments are starting to spend more. Germany, for example, proposed a huge fund for infrastructure and energy. The EU is also loosening its spending rules and increasing defense budgets. Some experts think this could actually boost Europe's economic growth a bit each year, which would mean better profits for European companies. Some even think European companies might see faster profit growth than US companies in the next few years because of this spending. 🇨🇳 Asia and Trade Wars: Asia was the weak spot. China's economy showed some signs of trouble, with a survey suggesting its manufacturing activity might have shrunk in April after a couple of months of growth. This seemed to be a direct result of the US tariffs. Asian stock markets took a hit on the tariff news, which dragged down the overall emerging markets index. Basically, tariffs and trade tensions hurt growth in Asia and its markets, which then affected returns in emerging markets globally. ✅ The bottom line Early 2025 reminded us that markets can freak out quickly – but they can often bounce back just as fast. The swings felt scary, but history tells us that just sticking with your investments usually pays off. Major stock markets are pretty much where they were a few months ago, while economies and company earnings are still moving forward. For long-term investors, that wild week in April just reinforced an old lesson: stay invested and let compounding do its thing. As some experts say, "get invested and stay invested" because the most volatile times often have the biggest market gains. By sticking to your plan, you avoid missing those big up days when the "fear" fades and markets recover. _________________________ SP:SPX Sources: Recent market reports and data including the April SATRIX 2025 market newsletter “Once Again, Volatility Blinked and Fear Lost., nasdaq.com, reuters.com, ishares.com, insight.factset.com, reuters.com, iol.co.za
SP:SPXLong
by CryptoCheck-
Surgical strike on Nifty call sellers at 24800-900Market Update: Nifty Outlook Today, amid news of an Indian Army operation, Nifty opened with a significant gap down but swiftly recovered, showing strong upward momentum. Currently, the chart structure indicates the need for a higher low to set the stage for the next leg of the uptrend towards the 24,800–24,900 zone. A flat opening in the next session could provide the ideal setup for a strong rally. Notably, a sustained move above 24,500 could trigger a "surgical strike" on call sellers positioned at the 24,800–24,900 levels, potentially leading to sharp short-covering. We recommend closely tracking price behavior near key support areas for confirmation of the next move.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by utradewithme
Next strike on 55690Market Update: Bank Nifty Outlook Today, following news of an Indian Army operation, Bank Nifty witnessed a significant gap-down opening. However, it quickly recovered and moved upward with strong momentum. Currently, based on the chart structure, we require the formation of a higher low to confirm the next leg of the uptrend toward the 55,690 level. If Bank Nifty opens flat in the next session, there is a strong potential for a sustained rally on the upside. We advise closely monitoring price action around key support zones for confirmation.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by utradewithme
Mongoose Capital: Macro Dashboard – US500 Fed & Recession WatchOverview: The Mongoose Capital Macro Dashboard offers a high-level view of key macroeconomic metrics driving market sentiment. Designed for the US500 (S&P 500 index), this tool tracks the interplay between Federal Reserve policy expectations, recession risk signals, and overall macro conditions in a clean, multi-panel layout. Key Features: FFR Cut Probability: Real-time assessment of Federal Reserve rate cut odds. Macro Conditions Score: Composite indicator showing the alignment of liquidity, inflation, labor market health, credit spreads, yield curve status, and global growth. Recession Risk Gauge: Aggregated recession probability, with dynamic background shading to reflect rising or falling risk. Yield Curve & Credit Spreads: Plots to monitor inversion trends and credit market health. Macro Event Markers: Highlights key events like CPI and FOMC meetings. How to Use: Optimized for the US500 on the 1D or 1W timeframe. Use the Macro Conditions Score and FFR Cut Probability as a context filter for your trade setups. Watch for Recession Score shifts (3/5 or higher) to flag caution zones. Best Practice: This dashboard is built for situational awareness, not as a direct buy/sell signal. Combine with technical analysis for trade execution. Example Chart Setup: US500 1D / 1W chart Apply as an overlay to maintain macro visibility alongside price action. Built by TheRealMongoose / Mongoose Capital.
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheRealMongoose