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DOW JONES Will the 1week MA200 save the day?Dow Jones / US30 almost reached its 1week MA200 today and immediately rebounded. Last time it approached it so closely was on October 23rd 2023 and last it crossed under it was September 19th 2022. The most recent was the first higher low of the 3 year Channel Up and the latter was the bottom of the last bear market. The 1week RSI hasn't been this low since June 13th 2022, which was again a near 1week MA200 test that caused an immediate rebound to the 1week MA50 before the rejection to the eventual bear market bottom. As long as the 1week MA200 holds and closes the candles over it, we expect the Channel Up to start a near bullish wave like post October 2023. Target 45200 (same as the March 2024 rally) which is around the All Time High. Follow us, like the idea and leave a comment below!!
TVC:DJILong
by TheCryptagon
1
NAS100 - Monthly Demand Zone Rejection | Massive Bullish PotentThe NAS100 has pulled back significantly from its all-time highs, retracing into a major monthly demand zone aligned with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level (16,344.76). 🔍 Key Technical Highlights: Demand Zone: Price has tapped into a historically strong demand block between 14,955 – 16,344 (gray box), which previously acted as a launchpad for the last rally. Fibonacci Levels: Price bounced right off the 50% Fib level, showing early signs of bullish interest. Below lies the 61.8% and deeper retracement levels at 14,955 and 13,872 respectively—strong areas to watch if price dips further. Bullish Reversal Candlestick: Current monthly candle showing potential reversal with high buying pressure. RSI: The RSI is rebounding from near the 40 level, historically acting as support during major bull runs. 🎯 Trade Idea: Entry: Near current levels or on a retest of 16,344 Target: 25,410 (Previous ATH and Fibonacci extension zone, +27%) Stop Loss: Below 14,000 support, giving room for volatility 🧠 RSTRADING View: We’re anticipating a long-term bullish reversal as the market finds footing at a key institutional zone. With macroeconomic optimism returning and tech stocks regaining momentum, NAS100 could be setting up for a new leg higher.
FUSIONMARKETS:NAS100Long
by RSTrad1ng
S&P500 Searching for a BottomExecutive Summary The S&P 500’s Elliott Wave structure suggests the current downtrend is incomplete, with a high-probability target near the 4,300 level based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Global stock markets remain under pressure amid ongoing tariff uncertainty, and Elliott Wave patterns across various indices continue to point to more downside. Current Elliott Wave Analysis Today’s upward volatility is likely a small-degree wave four, with another leg down expected to retest today’s lows in the coming sessions. There is an impulse wave that began in October 2022 and topped in 2025. We are now seeing the after effects of that completed rally. A standard 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of that move places a high-probability support zone around 4,300—a logical target for a ‘normal’ correction of the 2022–2025 rally. Currently, price has paused near the January 2022 high at 4,662, and also sits near the 38.2% retracement level of the 2022 rally, which lies around 4,950. While a move to new highs cannot be fully ruled out, the probability of such a rally is currently low. Given the brief nature of the current decline in both price and duration, a more meaningful correction is still likely. Bottom Line The S&P 500 appears to be in wave ((iii)) or ((c)) of a downward move, with the structure still incomplete. A decline toward 4,300 remains the higher-probability scenario in the near term. We will reconsider the medium-term outlook if the index rallies above 5,488, which would overlap the March 31 low and suggest a possible low is in place.
TVC:SPXShort
by JWagnerFXTrader
1
J225 Analysis📉 Japan’s Nikkei 225 has plunged sharply from its all-time high (ATH) at 42,530, recorded in July 2024, wiping out several months of gains. Price sliced through major support zones at 36,250, 33,817, and is now holding just above 30,373. 🩸 🔻 The sharp drop follows increased global risk-off sentiment, stronger Yen pressure, and Japan’s export concerns tied to U.S. tariff decisions. Investors are reacting to broader uncertainty and capital flow shifts. 🧾📉 🔑 Key Levels: -Resistance: 33,817 ❌ | 36,250 ❌ -Support: 30,373 🛡 📈 Scenarios: -Bullish: Bounce from 30,373 with strong volume could trigger a recovery wave. 📊 -Bearish: A clean break below 30,373 could lead to a deeper correction. 🚨 ⚠️ Volatility Alert: Global macro events and U.S.–Japan trade developments could continue to drive sharp moves. Stay alert and manage risk accordingly. 🎯 📘 This is not financial advice. DYOR and trade safe!
FXOPEN:J225
by juniormoseki1
S&P500 - The Correction Is Over Now!S&P500 ( TVC:SPX ) is retesting massive support: Click chart above to see the detailed analysis👆🏻 Over the past couple of days, we have been seeing a quite harsh stock market "crash" with an overall correction of about -20%. However, as we are speaking the S&P500 is already retesting a major confluence of support and if we see bullish confirmation, this drop might be over soon. Levels to watch: $4.900 Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
TVC:SPXLong
by basictradingtv
52
S&P 500: Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown?Valuation Correction or the Start of a Breakdown? Zoom out. Clear the noise. We might still sweep the lows, but when viewed on the weekly timeframe, this current S&P 500 move looks more like a healthy valuation correction than a structural breakdown. Let’s break it down by the numbers using fractal analysis: 🟩 March 2020 (COVID Crash): ▪️~35% drop ▪️V-shaped recovery ▪️Oversold RSI bounce 🟨 2022 Bear Market: ▪️~27% correction ▪️Multi-month wedge consolidation ▪️Eventually led to an upside breakout 🟦 Now (2025): ▪️~21% correction so far ▪️Retesting long-term trendline ▪️RSI in familiar oversold zone 📊 Fractal Math: - From 35% to 27% = 22.86% decrease - From 27% to 21% = 22.22% decrease Both legs show a consistent ~22% drop in correction depth suggesting bearish momentum is weakening with each cycle. Currently bouncing off the1844 days of support. Is this the bottom? Will there be relief? 🔁 If this pattern holds: - We could see a short-term sweep or deviation under recent lows. - But structure favours a potential recovery from this zone, unless the trendline breaks decisively. 📌 Watch levels closely. Timing matters. 🧠 What’s your take, is this another “buy the dip” moment? Do hit the like button if you liked this update and share your views in the comment section.
SP:SPXLong
by Cryptorphic
NAS100 Rebounds Sharply from Demand Zone – More Upside Ahead?The NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) just delivered a textbook bounce from the key demand zone between 16,800 and 16,900, showing signs of a strong bullish reaction after a sharp drop. This reaction may be the start of a potential bullish reversal, especially with upcoming US news that could add fuel to the move. Key Levels: Demand Zone (Support): 16,800 - 16,900 This zone has held firm and triggered a rapid bullish engulfing move – clear buyer interest! Next Resistance Levels: 18,437 (Mid-range target – strong historical resistance) 19,852 (Supply zone – high confluence area with potential to reject price) Bullish Bias Reasoning: Strong bullish momentum post-dip Buyers defended key structure near 16,826 Clean structure for risk-reward trades Possible double bottom forming on lower timeframes Possible Trade Setup (Not Financial Advice): Entry: 17,000 – 17,100 SL: Below 16,750 TP1: 18,437 TP2: 19,850 Watchlist Alert: US economic data incoming – high-impact news could create volatility and push NAS100 into breakout territory. --- Are you buying the NASDAQ dip or waiting for confirmation? Comment your outlook below!
FX:NAS100Long
by FrankFx14
VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Tariff UncertaintyThe VIX Clips 60 as Market Volatility and Uncertainty Surge on Tariff Announcement The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), often dubbed the “fear gauge,” surged past the 60 threshold this week—the highest level since August 5, 2023—as markets reacted violently to an unexpected announcement by the U.S. President regarding global tariffs. The sharp rise in the VIX, which measures market expectations of 30-day volatility, underscores the profound uncertainty now gripping investors, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting over 1,000 points and the S&P 500 entering correction territory. The trigger? A sweeping tariff policy unveiled by the administration on Liberation Day, a symbolic holiday marking a shift in economic strategy, which has sent shockwaves through global markets. The VIX at 60: A Sign of Extreme Fear The VIX typically hovers around 15-20 under normal conditions, reflecting moderate uncertainty. However, readings above 30 indicate heightened anxiety, and levels above 50 are rare, historically occurring during major crises like the 2008 financial collapse or the 2020 pandemic sell-off. This week’s spike to 60 marks a dramatic escalation, signaling a market gripped by fear. Analysts attribute this to the suddenness and scale of the President’s tariff announcement, which caught investors off guard after a period of relative calm. The Liberation Day Tariff Announcement On Liberation Day—a holiday commemorating historical freedoms—the administration announced a 25% tariff on a broad range of imports from key trading partners, including China, the EU, and others, effective immediately. The move, framed as a “national economic security initiative,” aims to curb perceived trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. However, its immediate impact has been severe: Scope and Speed: The tariffs apply to $500 billion in goods, targeting sectors like semiconductors, automotive parts, and consumer electronics. The abrupt implementation, with no prior warning or negotiation, has left businesses scrambling to adjust supply chains. Political Context: The announcement coincided with domestic political tensions, including debates over inflation and job creation. The White House argued the tariffs would “level the playing field” for American workers, but critics warned of retaliation and inflationary pressures. Market Chaos: Sectors Under Siege The tariff shockwave rippled across asset classes: Equities: The S&P 500 fell 2+% on Monday, its worst single-day drop since March 2020. The Nasdaq, heavily weighted in tech stocks reliant on global supply chains, plunged over 5%. Sectors: Semiconductor firms like Intel and AMD tanked, while automakers such as Ford and Tesla declined sharply. Expert Analysis: A Volatility Tipping Point Historical Parallels and Economic Risks The current volatility mirrors past crises: 2008 Financial Crisis: The VIX hit 80 as Lehman Brothers collapsed, but the current crisis stems from policy, not financial contagion. 2020 Pandemic Sell-Off: The VIX spiked to 82 as lockdowns paralyzed economies, but today’s uncertainty is self-inflicted. However, the tariff-driven uncertainty poses unique risks: Inflation: Higher import costs could push inflation back above 4%, complicating the Fed’s rate-cut path. Global Growth: The World Bank warns that trade wars could shave 2% off global GDP by 2025. Emerging markets, reliant on exports, face currency crises. Looking Ahead: Can Calm Return? Markets may stabilize if the administration signals flexibility. Potential pathways include: Negotiations: A G20 summit in September offers a venue for de-escalation, though diplomatic progress is uncertain. Policy Reversal: If tariffs are delayed or narrowed, the VIX could retreat. However, the President’s rhetoric suggests a hardline stance. Corporate Adaptation: Companies might pivot to domestic suppliers, but such shifts take years, prolonging volatility. Conclusion: A New Era of Uncertainty The VIX at 60 marks a pivotal moment. Markets are now pricing in not just the immediate tariff impact but a broader shift toward protectionism and policy-driven instability. For investors, the path forward is fraught with uncertainty. While short-term volatility may ebb with reassurances, the long-term consequences—trade wars, inflation, and geopolitical friction—could redefine global economics for years. With Liberation Day’s tariffs reshaping the landscape, one thing is clear: the era of low volatility is over. The question now is whether policymakers can navigate this new turbulence—or if markets will remain hostages to fear.
TVC:VIX
by bryandowningqln