NAS100USD: Volatility Opens Door for Sell Setup in NY SessionGreetings Traders,
As we enter the New York session—a period known for heightened volatility—we note that NAS100USD remains in a broader bullish environment. However, current price action suggests the potential for a short-term reversal, prompting us to explore selling opportunities.
Key Observations:
1. Bearish Internal Structure Developing:
Despite the overall bullish trend, internal price action reveals a sequence of lower lows, indicating the formation of a bearish microstructure. This internal weakness is reflected in the way bearish arrays—such as mitigation blocks and fair value gaps (FVGs)—continue to act as resistance zones.
2. Mitigation Block & FVG Alignment:
Recently, price delivered a strong displacement to the downside, followed by a retracement into a mitigation block that aligns with a fair value gap. This confluence reinforces the bearish bias and suggests institutional selling may be active in this zone.
3. Downside Targets – Gap Fill & Liquidity Pools:
The first downside target is a nearby inefficiency (gap) in price action, which the market often seeks to fill. The second target lies below, where sell-side liquidity pools are likely resting.
Trading Plan:
Monitor price behavior within the current resistance zone. If confirmation of continued bearish momentum appears, short positions targeting the aforementioned levels may be viable.
Stay focused and wait for confirmation before committing to any positions.
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Market indices
The Relief Rally is at ResistanceThe SPX touched the main support line, it bounced after the "Buy the Dip" setup until it reached the S/R level at 5,600. This level is at the end of the relief rally, and we can say we're "back to normal".
However, this is a critical point where this support was broken in the past and since support turns into resistance when broken, the most probably price action is a retracement back to the main support line, where depending how the market interprets the Fed Decision it may create a bounce and we can expect it to be consolidating in a trading range.
The main S/R trading range becomes , and if the market gains enough momentum, it could jump to the upper trading range .
It is not likely that the Fed will lower interest rates, since the effects of Tariffs is yet to be known. Inflation has been kept in check since the "soft landing", currently at 2.40%. Lowering interest rates now without knowing the collateral damage of tariffs would be a wild bet.
NAS100 1H | Major Rejection Zone – Time to Sell?NAS100 is trading inside a key supply zone, showing clear rejection signs near 19,825, with a potential downside move on the table.
Watch These Levels:
Resistance (Rejection Zone): 19,825
First Support: 18,328
Major Demand Zone: 16,948
Bearish Bias if price fails to break and close above 19,825.
A break below 18,328 could trigger a deeper drop toward 16,948.
Trade Plan:
Sell near 19,825 with SL above zone
Target 18,328 → 16,948
Bullish reversal only above clean breakout
What do you think—pullback or breakout?
#NAS100 #NASDAQ #Indices #PriceAction #SupplyAndDemand #SmartMoney #ForexTrading #TechnicalAnalysis #LuxAlgo #US100 #CFD
GRMAN 40 (DAX) BEARS ON THE HORIZONThe 10 year German Bond yieds have been falling since March from 2.95% to current levels just above 2.4%. The falling yields are mainly due to the ECB intrest rate cuts, which lowered its benchmark rate by a quarter percentage point to 2.25% on April 17 for the seventh time. Bond yields fall when interest rates fall; they have to, since bonds reflect the cost of borrowing money. They also fall when there is flight to safety from the stock market to the bond market when investors are looking for moderate returns. Falling yields in the 10 year German note shows that investors are buying bonds for moderate returns and selling the German stocks.
Technically, yesterday the DAX daily candle closed as a long legged doji which shows there's indecision at this level. Further price action at this zone should confirm weakness at this level, probably a shooting star with high volume.
Analysis of the DXY's Trend and Operational SuggestionsDuring today's US market trading session, from a technical analysis perspective, on the daily chart level, the stochastic indicator forms a death cross and diverges downward, which is undoubtedly a strong bearish signal. In terms of the K-line pattern, the current price continues to be under pressure from above, and the overall trend is weak. At the 4-hour level, the stochastic indicator also forms a death cross and points downward. The K-line presents a horizontal consolidation pattern in the shape of a straight line. This pattern usually indicates that the price is accumulating downward momentum, so it can be regarded as an important basis for bearish sentiment under pressure. By comprehensively considering the technical indicators of various cycles and the K-line pattern, the current market is clearly under the dominance of bears, and its weak characteristics are fully manifested.
The DXY encounters strong suppression at the mid-axis position of the daily chart, and the suppression effect is significant. Combining the current market environment and technical trends, it is expected that the DXY will continue its downward trend, and its subsequent performance remains pessimistic.
DXY
sell@99.700-99.500
tp:99-98.500
Investment itself is not risky; it is only when investment is out of control that risks occur. When trading, always remember not to act on impulse. I will share trading signals every day. All the signals have been accurate without any mistakes for a whole month. No matter what gains or losses you've had in the past, with my help, you have the hope of achieving a breakthrough in your investment.
5600: Bullish Border or Bear Trap?Theta’s Working. Setup’s Lurking.
This market’s behaving like it needs a reboot. We’ve got the classic tag‑n‑turn setup doing a dodgy impression of itself-upper band got touched, but instead of a clean pivot, we’ve now got a bearish pulse bar flashing and a near‑miss on the lower Bollinger Band. It’s like waiting for a bus, getting two at once, and realising they’re both headed to “Confusion Junction.”
So here’s the deal: 5600 is now the cliff edge. Stay above, and we’ve got some bullish life. Drop below, and we’re in breakdown city. If you’re testing the waters today, keep it light. FOMC is on deck, and that alone can whiplash any intraday idea straight off your charts.
Meanwhile, theta quietly does its work in the background, even if price action’s stuck in a tight horizontal fog. And for the more cautious of you yes, we’re experimenting with broken wing butterflies as a way to lean into the system without going full throttle. More on that in today’s Fast Forward call.
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SPX Market View
Let’s break down the weirdness.
We’re in a mechanical tag‑n‑turn, but it’s misbehaving.
Usually, the upper Bollinger Band tap sets off a swift reversal. But this time? We got the tag… and then nothing. Just sideways drift. Until yesterday, that is, when bear pulse bars flickered in, suggesting sellers might finally be stretching their legs.
Now? We’re hovering just shy of a lower Bollinger Band tag, with the bands pinching tighter than a miser’s wallet. This setup is usually the calm before either a surge—or a slip.
Enter the line: 5600.
• Above 5600: bull bias stays alive.
• Below 5600: breakdown setup gets the greenlight.
The GEX crowd seems to be repositioning slightly, but the main range remains intact. Volatility premiums are compressing again, suggesting the real move hasn’t triggered yet.
If you’re risk‑curious but cautious, broken wing butterflys are worth exploring. By placing your risk off-centre, you create room to collect theta while limiting max damage if direction gets wonky. I’ve been testing it in real-time, and I’ll share specifics on today’s mentorship call.
And then, of course, we’ve got the FOMC main session coming up.
If that makes your stomach churn—don’t trade it. Watch it. Tomorrow’s another day. No one gets a prize for being caught on the wrong side of a news candle.
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Expert Insights:
Assuming a tag means turn – the tag-n-turn isn’t magic. Wait for confirmation.
Forcing trades around news events – FOMC days don’t need your capital.
Underestimating sideways risk – no trend doesn’t mean no danger.
Skipping risk-defined plays – BWB’s give breathing room when setups are unclear.
Failing to adjust bias – bullish and bearish both live here—bias must shift with price.
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Rumour Has It…
A mysterious algorithm known only as “TurnTagger X” is reportedly running its own contrarian SPX strategy. It waits for tag-n-turn setups-then does the exact opposite, cackling through your stops. One trader claims it’s powered by caffeine, salt, and old Janet Yellen quotes. Could be hedge fund AI… or just your broker’s cat walking on the keyboard.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
AI-Powered ETFs Go on Strike
A rogue batch of AI ETFs issued a joint statement this morning refusing to rebalance “until humans stop panic-buying tops.” BlackRock is reportedly negotiating with a mediator chatbot named GaryBot-9000.
Retail Traders Launch ‘NapMap’ App
After months of whipsaw hell, Reddit traders launched NapMap – a tool that identifies the safest hours to sleep through “algorithmic tantrums.” It’s already outperforming the S&P.
CBOE Announces ‘Calm VIX’
The Chicago Board of Exchange revealed its newest product: a “Calm VIX” that tracks how unbothered markets pretend to be. Readings are currently at ‘Zen Master’ despite 4 black swans circling the drain.
This is entirely made-up satire. Probably!
Breaking scoops courtesy of the Financial Nuts Newswire-because who needs sanity?
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Fun Fact
The phrase “broken wing butterfly” comes from aviation-not options. Pilots once used the term to describe asymmetric recovery manoeuvres. Traders later borrowed it to describe strategies with off-centre risk profiles-ideal when you expect range but want room for error.
Bonus trivia: the strategy can be structured for credit or debit, making it one of the few “choose-your-own-adventure” plays in options.
Cartoon metaphor for using broken wing butterflys in volatile markets.
DowJones INTRADAY awaits Fed Rate Decision Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 41,450
Resistance Level 2: 41,900
Resistance Level 3: 42,470
Support Level 1: 40,220
Support Level 2: 39,760
Support Level 3: 39,150
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
NSDQ100 INTRADAY awaits Fed Rate Decision Macro & Central Banks
The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Officials say policy is well-positioned, despite political frustration.
China is adding stimulus: cutting rates, reducing bank reserve requirements, and increasing gold reserves for the sixth month in a row.
Markets
U.S. stock futures are higher.
The U.S. dollar is recovering after three days of declines.
The U.S. and China will restart trade talks — the first since the Trump-era tariff war.
Companies
Novo Nordisk shares are rising on expectations of less competition for its obesity drug Wegovy.
WeightWatchers has filed for bankruptcy.
Earnings reports this morning: Walt Disney, Uber, Barrick Gold.
Earnings reports this afternoon: Arm Holdings, Occidental Petroleum, Carvana, Flutter.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 20,190
Resistance Level 2: 20,510
Resistance Level 3: 20,930
Support Level 1: 19,330
Support Level 2: 19,020
Support Level 3: 18,570
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DOW JONES Can this Channel Up hold after the Fed Rate Decision?Dow Jones (DJIA) has been trading within a Channel Up since the April 24 Low and yesterday's correction (technically its Bearish Leg) stopped on the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). Having formed already a Golden Cross, as long as this 4H MA50 holds, it should technically fuel the pattern's new Bullish Leg.
The 'weakest' Bullish Leg within this Channel Up has been +3.58%, so we expect a minimum repeat of that, giving a Target at 42100 on the short-term. This falls perfectly at the bottom of the 5 week Resistance Zone.
If this Channel Up doesn't get invalidated after today's Fed Rate Decision, it will most likely push the price there.
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Very Strong performance by Nifty to close in Positive todayDespite the fear of escalation of tensions at Indo-Pak border and Indian carrying out Operation Sindoor Nifty closed in Green today. This signifies the strength of Indian market, India as an Economy and India as a country. Very few would have imagined that Indian markets will close in Green today when the market begun early morning. The situation still remains fluid/dynamic and explosive. so still investors should keep stop losses and trailing stop losses in place.
Supports for Nifty remain at: 24315 (Strong Mother line for hourly chart), 24202, 24083, 23944 and 23754 (Strong Father Line support). Below 23754 Bears can take control of the market and drag it towards 23K.
Resistances For Nifty remain at: 24430, 24528, 24616 and 24863. Closing above 24863 can empower Bulls in a big way to Pull Index towards 25K+ levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Hanzo : US30 15m : Breakouts Zones / Next Move is Confirmed 🆚 US30 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
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💯 Main Focus: Bullish After Break at 41150
We are watching this zone closely.
💯 Main Focus: Bearish After Break at 40950
We are watching this zone closely.
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👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 41300
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 40990
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 40950 – Major support / Key level x3 Retest
➗ 40690 – Major support / Key level x5 Retest
➗ 41150 – Proven resistance
Hanzo : NAS100 15m: Best Breakout Zones Confirmed After Liquidity Trap
Massive GER30 Short 1. This trade is at an all-time high and has made a double top on weekly with massive divergence
2. H4 is overbought and has a double top with divergence as well
3. This will indicate a fall until H4 is oversold to compensate for the sharp movement up
4. Stop loss of 250 pips
5. There is a Deep Crab pattern on M15
Risky Long Setup on Dow Jones Ahead of FOMC – Wait for ConfirmatPotential Risky Long Setup
If the price breaks and holds above 41,160, a risky long position could be considered. This path is illustrated with the blue line on the chart.
For a more reliable entry, we need to see the market retest the 41,392 level once more. If we get a third reaction from this level, we’ll wait for a clear trigger to go long. This potential setup is shown with the orange line on the chart.
📅 This analysis is conditional on FOMC news aligning with the overall trend of the market.
🧠 All scenarios reflect the thoughts of a risk-taking trader – remember, nothing is impossible in the market!
#DowJones #DJI #FOMC #TechnicalAnalysis #RiskyTrade #PriceAction #Forex #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #LongSetup #BreakoutTrade #DOW #US30
Dow Jones at Critical Levels!Dow Jones Technical Outlook:
Currently, the Dow Jones remains within a broader bearish structure 📉, trading near the lower boundary of its descending channel.
Nonetheless, the formation of higher highs and higher lows on the daily and 4H timeframes ⏰ suggests that a potential bullish reversal may be developing 🔄.
The 40,700 – 40,300 range is a key decision zone ⚡️:
• A confirmed breakout above this level could trigger a minor bullish rally 🚀.
• Conversely, a failure to hold above this area and the formation of new lower highs and lower lows would reinforce the ongoing bearish trend 📉.
Additionally, the recent bullish weekly and monthly closes 📅 support a bias toward further upside momentum.
In the initial phase, we may see a corrective move to the downside on lower timeframes to form a wick (shadow) for the monthly candle before any significant bullish continuation 🔄📈.
Stay flexible and monitor price action closely! 👀
BankNifty levels - May 05, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
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Nifty levels - May 08, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!