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S&P 500 Rally: Why a 5k Target Might Be More Likely Than 7kSince November of last year, the SP:SPX has surged by 50%, and if we look at the gains from this year alone, we're seeing around a 30% increase. Additionally, the rise from August is 20% which is significant in just five months. Considering the rapid pace of these increases, especially for such a major index, it gives me the impression that the S&P 500 may be overstretched. Statistically, such strong rallies either follow a deep bear market or precede a significant pullback. Since we haven't experienced a strong bear market recently, I believe a correction could be on the horizon. Technically, the market remains in an uptrend, but the price action from August has been in steps. This type of movement often signals distribution and a potential reversal. In conclusion, while a new all-time high by the end of the year is almost certain, I'm not overly optimistic about the long-term outlook. A pullback to around 5,000 seems more likely to me than a rally to 7,000.
SP:SPXShort
by Mihai_Iacob
Bullish Potential for DJIA Towards 45,700 Amid Support BreakdownKey Observations Fibonacci Extension: • Fibonacci Extension is used to calculate potential price targets after a pullback. • Fibonacci Extension Levels: o 0%: 43,507.08 (beginning of the rise). o 100%: 45,762.55 (full price target). o The 45,762.55 level, as the 100% Fibonacci Extension target, serves as a potential take profit area if the price successfully rebounds from support and breaks through previous resistance. Support and Resistance: Main Support: • 43,507.08: Key support near the trendline. • 43,329.65: First horizontal support level. • 42,738.60: Second support if breakdown occurs. • 41,697.23: Last support that maintains the long-term bullish trend. Main Resistance: • 44,040.00: Initial resistance area. • 44,369.69: Second resistance level. • 44,902.61: Strong resistance (Fibonacci Extension 61.8%). • 45,762.55: Fibonacci Extension 100% as the main target. ________________________________________ Potential Scenarios Bullish Scenario: • If the price rebounds from the support area between 43,507.08 and 43,329.65, there is potential for a move towards 44,369.69 and 44,902.61. • A breakout above 44,902.61 will push the price towards 45,762.55 (100% Fibonacci Extension target). Bearish Scenario: • If the price falls below 43,329.65, the next critical support areas will be 42,738.60 and 41,697.23. SMA 50: • The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 43,509.70 still serves as dynamic support near the current price. ________________________________________ Conclusion • The 100% Fibonacci Extension at 45,762.55 is the main bullish target if the price can rebound from support at 43,507.08 and break through the resistance at 44,902.61. • The support area between 43,507.08 and 43,329.65 remains a crucial level to maintain the bullish momentum. ________________________________________ Bullish Strategy Entry: • Buy in the support area between 43,507.08 and 43,329.65. Target: • Target 1: 44,369.69 • Target 2: 44,902.61 • Target 3: 45,700 (Fibonacci 100%). Stop Loss: • Below 42,738.60 to limit risk. ________________________________________ Bearish Strategy (If Breakdown Support) Trigger Entry: • If the price drops below 43,329.65 (horizontal support) and fails to rebound. Target Profit: • Target 1: 42,738.60 (next support). • Target 2: 41,697.23 (strong last support). Stop Loss: • Place the stop loss above 43,507.08, the former support now turned resistance after the breakdown. • This ensures that risk is controlled if the breakdown fails and the price reverses. ________________________________________ Important Notes • Risk-Reward Ratio: Ensure a minimum risk-reward ratio of 1:2 to maintain a profitable long-term strategy. • Confirmation: Look for a bearish candlestick pattern or high volume during the breakdown to validate the signal.
BLACKBULL:US30Long
by KepoinTrading
NAS100 UPDATE - Severe Divergence20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Dear Friends: (Away from charts) It will be prudent to give your mind, body and soul a good rest, to recharge for the new upcoming exciting year! How I see it: Keep in mind NASDAQ is seriously diverted on all Time Frames! "BAKED IN" Rate Cut Bets = Institutions Maximizing Profits Strong bullish price action with no selling resistance Bull Imbalances all the way! How far can bulls drive it up, who knows? All I know for a fact is that Nasdaq is in "SEVERE" overbought territory! Keynote! The 1HR TF gives me the best view of only the tip of the iceberg of the scale of the 1st divergence level. Please examine your RSI on all TF's, from 1Hour - 1Month closely I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
ICMARKETS:USTECShort
by ANROC
US30 Still Bearish and will likely fall to 43300US30 failed to stay above the 43800 support Line causing price to be stalled between 43800 resistance area and 43500 support area. This is a very week support area and price will likely gravitate to the 43500 line by tomorrow so an intraday short is an idea to consider. Price is nicely falling within the trend channel and shows no immediate or on coming sign of recovering. Short- Look to take a short to 43500 TP1 or 43300 TP2 Good Trading.
OANDA:US30USDShort
by leslyjeanbaptiste
Elliott Wave View: DAX Pullback Should Find BuyersElliott Wave view in DAX suggests that Index shows an incomplete bullish sequence from December 27, 2018 low favoring more upside. On the 1 hour chart below, we can see the rally to 13374.27 ended wave 3 and the pullback to 12890.56 on December 10, 2019 low ended wave 4. The Index has resumed higher in wave 5 with internal subdivision as a 5 waves Elliott wave impulsive structure. Up from 12/10/2019 low, wave (i) ended at 13219.03 and wave (ii) pullback ended at 13124.24. Index then extended higher in wave (iii) towards 13423.41 and wave (iv) pullback ended at 13255.55. The final leg wave (v) is proposed complete at 13407.66 and this ends wave ((i)) of 5 in larger degree. Expect Index to pullback in wave ((ii)) to correct the cycle from December 10, 2019 low before the rally resumes. We don’t like selling the pullback. As far as pivot at 12890.56 low stays intact, dips should continue to find support in the sequence of 3, 7, or 11 swing. Potential target higher is 100% – 123.6% Fibonacci extension from December 27, 2018 low which comes at 13640 – 14204 area.
XETR:DAX
by Elliottwave-Forecast
not yet sober; continue with bearish sentiment. Resistance level : 20070-20090 Support Level : 19670 - 19568 If breakdown thru 19303 the next bus stop will be 19080 i.e 🆘 level as you can see from 1h chart. Tradeplan : buy into support and sell at resistance, set your SL/TP. From today macro overview, most of the traders likely to short the index. To trade for 100-150pips profits for tomorrow and within this week for 200pps is feasible. Remember your SL and locked in profit. tradingview.com/news/mtnewswires.com:20241216:G2446630:0-hong-kong-stocks-extend-slide-on-disappointing-chinese-economic-data-ganglong-china-property-slumps-10/ The Hang Seng Index fell 0.88%, or 175.75 points, to close at 19,795.49. For D chart We are hopeful to see the reversal; the MACD Signal is now breaking above zero level and although the KDJ still in bearish zone. Let's continue to monitor; while waiting for more positive news and hopefully Santa remember to drop by the index chimney to give it a boost we shall zen with 📙 and 🍵! Happy Trading Everyone!
PEPPERSTONE:HK50Short
by ChenQianYu
1
BankNifty Intraday Support & Resistance Levels for 17.12.2024On Monday, BankNifty opened negative, made a high of 53738.90, and fell to a low of 53335 during the session. It closed almost flat at 53581.35, losing just 2 points over the previous close. Both the Weekly Trend (50 SMA) and Daily Trend (50 SMA) remain positive. Demand/Support Zones Near Demand/Support Zone (75m): 52264.55 - 52665.15 Far Demand/Support Zone (Daily): 51693.95 - 52197.25 Far Demand/Support Zone (125m): 51693.95 - 51906.90 Supply/Resistance Zones Near Supply/Resistance Zone (Weekly): 53741.40 - 54467.35 (tested)
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by PriteshPal