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#202507 - priceactiontds - weekly update - daxGood Evening and I hope you are well. comment: Last week my bearish take was wrong again and market moved closer to 23000 than below 22000. Until bears start closing gaps below and breaking bull trend lines, this is still max bullish, no matter the valuations. Still hard to buy the highs, given that we are trading either above or at the high of all of the ones you can draw. We are also far away from the daily 20ema and markets always come back to them. For now it’s useless to look for shorts because bears are not doing anything to have a decent trade setup for shorts. Bulls buy every dip and make money, so join them until it stops working. Trade small. current market cycle: Bull trend (very climactic move last weeks, market needs to take a breather but it doesn’t) key levels: 21800 - 23000 bull case: Not much difference to last week, other that we are 700 points higher. Bulls buy it all because it continues to be profitable. Clear bull trend line around 21800 and if we get there, we can expect heavy buying to happen but I highly doubt we get there in the first place. Upper target is 23000. I expect a sideways correction much more than one to the downside. Longs closer to 22000 are better than ones closer to 22600, obviously. Invalidation is below 21800. bear case: A decent pull-back is overdue but that does not make it happen tomorrow. Bears need to start by closing the gap down to 22150 and testing the bull trend line. For now we can’t expect them to get much more than that. It’s likely that we only see the beginning of more profit taking, once we stop making daily new ath and market stops finding buyers buying new highs. Hasn’t happened yet, so don’t spend too much time looking to short this. Daily close below 22000 would be a huge surprise to me and then we can talk lower targets. Invalidation is above 23000. short term: Neutral until we have a daily close below 22000. Can only look for longs until we clearly stop making daily new ath and see bigger selling pressure. medium-long term from 2024-02-16: As much as I would love to see this 30% lower, it’s not happening anytime soon. Market will probably has to move sideways for some weeks before this could go down. For now it’s still only up. 23000 likely next. current swing trade: Burned the last shorts. Only long scalps for me as of now. chart update: Just highlighted current bull trend lines.
XETR:DAX
by priceactiontds
New highs area +$1,000/share unlocked for NasdaqSeems like 2 months of sideways downtrending (since mid December) is over for Nasdaq. Unless any surprise political shock news come out (we all know that can be a challenge with Trump) we could see Nasdaq reach $23,000 per share area in drawn upcoming green period. This would also reflect directly on upward momentum for several bluechip stocks: Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL Microsoft Corporation NASDAQ:MSFT Amazon.com Inc. NASDAQ:AMZN Alphabet Inc. NASDAQ:GOOGL Meta Platforms Inc. NASDAQ:META NVIDIA Corporation NASDAQ:NVDA Tesla Inc. NASDAQ:TSLA Intel Corporation NASDAQ:INTC
IG:NASDAQ
by ProfitTradeRoom
Dollar Index - Trump & TariffsWith a lot of fundamental conflicts at play, one being the tariffs war on China, EU, Mexico and Canada (we don’t know yet if any more countries will be affected), we are seeing the result in price action. We are trading in a range from 110.176 - 106.969 and so far, Dollar has managed to support the weekly BISI @ the 107.500 region but also trade up to and reject the 109.770 HTF PD array. Ultimately, it will be fundamental news that will grant dollar the necessary volatility to run to liquidity pools. My guess, to the downside
TVC:DXYShort
by LegendSince
DXY │ S&P500 │NAS100 │GOLDFUNDAMENTAL, SENTIMENTAL AND TECHNICAL ANALYSIS of DXY and its implication on the correlated instruments noted in the title. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS Bullish Indicators: 1. Stock Market: The market is near its highest point (6118 vs. a high of 6130), indicating positive investor sentiment. 2. Unemployment Rate: At 4%, it's relatively low and shows stability compared to the previous month (4.1%), which suggests a healthy labor market. 3. Business Confidence and PMI: Business Confidence (50.9) and Manufacturing PMI (51.2) are above 50, indicating economic expansion. 4. Current Account to GDP: Improved from -3.8% to -3%, indicating a slightly better external position. Bearish Indicators: 1. GDP Growth: Both the quarterly (2.3%) and annual growth rates (2.5%) have declined, signaling a slowing economy. 2. Non-Farm Payrolls: Significant drop from 307K to 143K, suggesting weakening job creation. 3. Inflation: Increased from 2.9% to 3% with a MoM rise of 0.5%, indicating growing inflationary pressures. 4. Balance of Trade and Current Account: The trade deficit widened from -78.94 to -98.43 USD Billion, and the current account deficit worsened, showing external sector weakness. 5. Government Budget Deficit: Increased from -5.4% to -6.2% of GDP, reflecting fiscal strain. 6. Consumer Confidence and Retail Sales: Consumer Confidence fell to 67.8 from 71.1, and Retail Sales dropped by -0.9%, suggesting weaker consumer spending. Overall Sentiment: Bearish Despite some positive indicators like the stock market's strength and a stable labor market, the slowdown in GDP growth, weak payroll data, rising inflation, worsening trade balance, and declining consumer confidence suggest a cautious outlook. The economy appears to be losing momentum, leading to a bearish sentiment overall. SENTIMENTAL ANALYSIS Large spec commercial traders are particularly bearish against the dollar ( Commitment of Traders (COT) Analysis for USD Index (ICE Futures U.S.) ) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 1. DXY 2. S&P500 3. NAS100 4. GOLD
TVC:DXYShort
by Austin_Palmer
Upcoming Weekly AnalysisFA Analysis: 1- From macro-economic perspective, next week we have the Fed Minutes which is irrelevant and late in the week very relevant data to confirm the economic slowdown. 2- Trump likes attention; so expect every day at least one tweet. TA Analysis: 1- Price reached last year high. Price closed very bullish in weekly and daily, but just below last year high. 2- Price completed the compression to the top. 3- My ST&MT Outlook is Sell . Hence, I see price going to visit the bottom of the weekly range. Wish you a relaxing weekend and a green upcoming weeks!
FOREXCOM:NAS100Short
by OTM-Fadhl
NIFTY : Trading levels and plan for 17-Feb-2025 🔍 Market Context: NIFTY has shown a strong downtrend with critical resistance and support levels forming significant zones. The price action near key levels will determine the direction for the day. Let’s break down possible scenarios. 1. Gap-Up Opening (100+ Points Above 22,996) If NIFTY opens above 22,996 , it enters the "Opening Resistance/Support Zone". Sellers may step in around this zone, leading to a possible rejection and downside move toward 22,918 . If the price sustains above 23,135 , bullish momentum could extend toward the 23,359 resistance zone. Profit booking is expected around 23,359 , making it a key level to watch for reversals. 🔹 Action Plan: ✅ If NIFTY faces rejection at 22,996 , consider short trades with a target of 22,918 .✅ If price sustains above 23,135 , go long with a target of 23,359 .✅ If NIFTY reaches 23,359 , consider partial profit booking. 💡 Tip: In a gap-up scenario, option premiums inflate. Consider spreads instead of naked options to control risk. 2. Flat Opening (Between 22,918 - 22,996) A flat open indicates uncertainty, keeping price inside the No Trade Zone (22,912 - 22,996) . A breakout above 22,996 signals bullish momentum toward 23,135 . A breakdown below 22,918 invites selling pressure toward the 22,743 - 22,677 support zone. 🔹 Action Plan: ✅ Avoid taking trades within 22,912 - 22,996 until a clear breakout occurs.✅ If price breaks 22,996 , go long with a stop-loss below 22,900 .✅ If price breaks below 22,918 , go short targeting 22,743 . 💡 Tip: Flat openings often trap traders. Wait for 15-30 minutes before entering trades. 3. Gap-Down Opening (100+ Points Below 22,743) A gap-down opening below 22,743 signals bearish sentiment. The 22,508 level is a critical intraday support – breaking below it can accelerate selling pressure. If NIFTY bounces back from 22,508 , it could trigger an intraday pullback toward 22,743 . 🔹 Action Plan: ✅ If price sustains below 22,743 , go short with a target of 22,508 .✅ If price holds 22,508 and reverses, consider long trades for an intraday recovery.✅ A move above 22,743 can lead to short covering toward 22,918 . 💡 Tip: In a gap-down scenario, IV (Implied Volatility) spikes, making option premiums expensive. Selling OTM call options can be a profitable strategy. ⚠ Risk Management & Options Trading Tips 🔹 Always use stop-loss – Never trade without a predefined risk level.🔹 Position sizing is key – Avoid over-leveraging.🔹 Trade with confirmation – Enter only after clear price action signals.🔹 Manage time decay – If buying options, choose ATM or ITM strikes to reduce theta decay. 📌 Summary & Conclusion ✅ Key Levels to Watch: Resistance: 22,996 / 23,135 / 23,359 Support: 22,918 / 22,743 / 22,508 ✅ Trading Plan Overview: Gap-Up: Watch for rejection at 22,996 , possible breakout toward 23,135 . Flat Open: No Trade Zone between 22,912 - 22,996 – wait for breakout. Gap-Down: If below 22,743 , bearish sentiment dominates with 22,508 as the key support. 💡 Final Tip: Trade with discipline and follow your plan. Avoid emotional decisions – the market rewards patience! 🚀 📢 Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered analyst . This trading plan is for educational purposes only . Please do your own research before taking any trades. 📊
NSE:NIFTYLong
by LiveTradingBox
BANKNIFTY : Trading levels and Plan for 17-Feb-2025🔍 Market Context: BANKNIFTY has been volatile with key resistance and support levels forming strong zones. A structured approach is necessary to navigate different opening scenarios effectively. --- 1. Gap-Up Opening (200+ Points) Scenario If BANKNIFTY opens above 49,242 , it enters the Opening Resistance/Support zone. A rejection here can trigger a short trade , targeting 48,827 . Sustained buying above 49,242 may lead to a rally toward the next resistance at 49,800 . Breakout above 49,800? Expect a push toward 49,984 , where partial profit booking is advised. 🔹 Action Plan: ✅ Watch for rejection at 49,242 – Short with SL above 49,300. ✅ If breakout and sustain above 49,242 , go long for 49,800 . ✅ Above 49,800 , confirm strength before fresh longs. 💡 Tip: In a gap-up, options premiums are inflated. Use spreads instead of naked options. --- 2. Flat Opening (Within 49,070-49,242) A flat open suggests uncertainty – potential No Trade Zone . A breakout above 49,242 confirms bullishness. A breakdown below 49,070 invites selling toward 48,827 . 🔹 Action Plan: ✅ Avoid aggressive trades in the 49,070-49,242 range (No Trade Zone). ✅ If price moves above 49,242 , take longs with SL below 49,070 . ✅ Below 49,070 , short for 48,827 . 💡 Tip: Wait 15-30 minutes before entering trades in flat openings to avoid fake breakouts. --- 3. Gap-Down Opening (200+ Points Below 48,827) A gap-down near/below 48,827 signals bearish sentiment. 48,461 is key intraday support – breaking below leads to further downside. A pullback to 48,827 may offer a shorting opportunity if resistance holds. 🔹 Action Plan: ✅ If below 48,827 , go short targeting 48,461 . ✅ Watch for a bounce at 48,461 – a strong recovery may trigger reversals. ✅ If recovery sustains above 48,827 , consider longs with SL below 48,750 . 💡 Tip: In a gap-down, IV spikes, increasing option prices. Selling OTM calls can benefit from premium decay. --- ⚠ Risk Management & Options Trading Tips 🔹 Never overleverage – Always define a stop loss before entering a trade. 🔹 Use spreads – Instead of buying naked options, use vertical spreads to limit risk. 🔹 Watch for traps – Avoid chasing prices at the open; let the market structure develop. 🔹 Be mindful of time decay – For long options trades, prefer ATM strikes to minimize theta decay. --- 📌 Summary & Conclusion ✅ Key Levels to Watch: - Resistance: 49,242 / 49,800 - Support: 48,827 / 48,461 ✅ Trading Plan Overview: - Gap-Up: Watch for rejection at 49,242 , breakout potential toward 49,800 . - Flat Open: No Trade Zone in 49,070-49,242 – wait for confirmation. - Gap-Down: Below 48,827 , bearish trend continues toward 48,461 . 💡 Final Tip: Stick to your trading plan and avoid emotional decisions. Trading is about discipline, not predictions! --- 📢 Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered analyst . This trading plan is for educational purposes only . Please do your own research before taking any trades. 📊
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by LiveTradingBox
Nas100NAS100 is approaching a key resistance level at 22,000—a strong barrier that has held firm in the past. 🔹 If price breaks above 22,000, we look for a confirmed breakout and take an entry. 🔹 If it gets rejected, our first support zone is 21,830 to 21,850. Why is this level important? ✅ The 9 EMA aligns as support ✅ It previously acted as a key resistance twice before turning into support If price drops further, our next key support is 21,820, and below that, we have a strong buy zone at 21,650. Why? ✅ It aligns with the trendline support ✅ The 20 EMA adds confluence By watching these levels closely, we can react accordingly and position for high-probability trades!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Sharpshane
Nas100 NAS100 is approaching a key resistance level at 22,000—a strong barrier that has held firm in the past. 🔹 If price breaks above 22,000, we look for a confirmed breakout and take an entry. 🔹 If it gets rejected, our first support zone is 21,830 to 21,850. Why is this level important? ✅ The 9 EMA aligns as support ✅ It previously acted as a key resistance twice before turning into support If price drops further, our next key support is a strong buy zone at 21,650. Why? ✅ It aligns with the trendline support ✅ The 20 EMA adds confluence By watching these levels closely, we can react accordingly and position for high-probability trades!
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Long
by Sharpshane
Breakout or More Range Trading?The price is currently consolidating between 6,031 and 6,098, awaiting a breakout direction. Bullish Scenario: Price is expected to retest 6,031 before attempting a move higher. Stabilizing above 6,031 will allow liquidity accumulation, potentially driving a rally toward 6,080 and 6,098. A breakout above 6,098 could extend gains to 6,122 and 6,150. Bearish Scenario: If the price breaks below 6,010, this could confirm a shift to a bearish trend. Further downside targets include 5,979 and 5,920. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 6070 Resistance Levels: 6098, 6122, 6150 Support Levels: 6031, 6010, 5973 Trend Outlook: Bullish above 6,031, targeting 6,098 Bearish below 6,010, targeting 5,979
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by Disco-Dave
Ready to break out of consolidation and aim for 24,600Nasdaq is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 54.119, MACD = 45.480, ADX = 25.617) as it is trading sideways for the last 2 months. The 2 year Channel Up is intact and such consolidation patterns have broken out aggressively in the past to the new HH. As long as the 1W MA50 is supporting, the long term bullish trend will stay intact and we can aim for a total of +43% price increase (TP = 24,600) from the last HL, a -4% drop rate from the last one.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by Disco-Dave
SPX Losing Steam As RRP Runs to ZeroSP:SPX has been enjoying lots of liquidity from the reverse repo facility at the Fed recently, but this balance is soon going to zero as indicated by the trend shown in the chart. The orange line is an inverted RRP chart to show the correlation with SPX going up. As liquidity in RRP runs out, the monthly SPX MACD also looks as if it's ready to swing down. The timing for when SPX rolls over is a challenge due to many factors, but RRP is on track to be zero within a month, and this will take away one major liquidity source driving markets. This event will be one to keep an eye on.
TVC:SPXShort
by DarklyEnergized
DXY Long into Zero Issuance WindowThe DXY was hammered when bad economic data came in last week. It also took a hit when a 30-year bond auction rallied the long bond, and caused yields to drop. This move of dropping also occurred as the Treasury issued bills almost every day of the month, but now there's a window where no bonds will be auctioned until Tuesday. The chart structure shows a falling wedge consolidation which bounced from the bottom, and this is a key level which resulted in a pivot going back to November 2023. If DXY can solidify a support where there used to be resistance, this could add confidence to a further swing upward.
TVC:DXYLong
by DarklyEnergized
BANK NIFTY S/R for 17/2/25Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by zenthosh