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The Nasdaq 100’s rally may be coming to an endThe Nasdaq 100 has staged an impressive rally over the past two weeks, climbing more than 12% since Monday 21 April to close at roughly 19,970 on Monday 5 May. However, if there were a point at which the advance might pause, it could be near current levels. The index has risen to a key area of technical resistance in the 19,900 to 20,200 range, which could prove challenging to break through, especially given the uncertain outlook. One driver behind the Nasdaq 100’s rise has been the fall in implied volatility, as indicated by the VXN. While the better-known Vix measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 over the next month of trading, the VXN measures volatility on the Nasdaq 100. It has recently dropped to a reading of 25.7, down from more than 50 in April, as shown on the chart below. This decline in implied volatility probably triggered significant unwinding of put positions in the options market, allowing market-maker hedging flows to provide a tailwind for stocks. But with the VXN now back at levels last seen on 2 April, this tailwind may no longer be available to support the market. Additionally, the Nasdaq 100 has returned to the 61.8% retracement level, a significant Fibonacci level that frequently acts as strong resistance and could help determine whether the recent rebound is genuine or merely a short-term blip. Just above this 61.8% retracement lies the 200-day moving average, another level that typically provides strong resistance. Furthermore, the 19,950 region has consistently acted as both support and resistance, dating back to June 2024. With these three resistance areas converging, it may be challenging for the tech-heavy index to sustain its upward momentum. Should stocks begin to reverse lower, initial support may be around 19,300, followed by a gap at 18,240. That said, if the Nasdaq 100 somehow manages to overcome all these hurdles, it could rise to 21,100 – though such a move appears unlikely at this stage. Written by Michael J. Kramer, founder of Mott Capital Management Disclaimer: CMC Markets is an execution-only service provider. The material (whether or not it states any opinions) is for general information purposes only and does not take into account your personal circumstances or objectives. Nothing in this material is (or should be considered to be) financial, investment or other advice on which reliance should be placed. No opinion given in the material constitutes a recommendation by CMC Markets or the author that any particular investment, security, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. The material has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research. Although we are not specifically prevented from dealing before providing this material, we do not seek to take advantage of the material prior to its dissemination.
CMCMARKETS:NDAQ100
by cmcmarkets
S&P500 -Weekly forecast, Technical Analysis & Trading IdeasPrevious forecast result: As you can see in the 4CastMachine forecast on 12/03/2025, the price, after rejecting the sell zone, began its sharp decline and touched all TPs. Midterm forecast: While the price is below the resistance 6149.57, resumption of downtrend is expected. We make sure when the support at 4804.01 breaks. If the resistance at 6149.57 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of downtrend- will be invalid. CSEMA:S&P Technical analysis: While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue. A trough is formed in daily chart at 4807.10 on 04/07/2025, so more gains to resistance(s) 5698.65, 5791.00, 5896.50 and maximum to Major Resistance (6149.57) is expected. Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses. Relative strength index (RSI) is 55. Take Profits: 5509.32 5363.90 5261.00 5122.47 4944.41 4804.01 __________________________________________________________________ ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView, . . . . . . . . Hit the 'BOOST' button 👍 . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback in the comments below! (e.g., What did you find most useful? How can we improve?) 🙏 Your support is appreciated! Now, it's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Have a successful week, ForecastCity Support Team
VANTAGE:SP500Short
by ForecastCity
16
Trade Idea: Long (MARKET)Technical Confluence: Daily Chart: • Strong bullish engulfing recovery from recent support (~37,700). • MACD starting to curl back up from deeply negative levels — possible trend reversal. • RSI recovering above 50 (currently 52.49), suggesting bullish strength resuming. 15-Min Chart: • Sustained uptrend with pullbacks respecting the moving average. • MACD crossing positive territory. • RSI at 64.77 with room to move higher before hitting overbought levels. 3-Min Chart: • Tight consolidation after a sharp breakout to 40,766 — forming a potential bull flag. • RSI at 58.89 — mid-level with upward momentum potential. • MACD histogram shrinking — possible continuation breakout imminent. ⸻ Fundamental Context: • Market Sentiment: U.S. markets are generally supported due to strong earnings reports and decreasing recession fears. Treasury yields have stabilized, and risk appetite is returning. • Upcoming Events: FOMC rate decision is key — bullish bias if they hold or soften tone. ⸻ Trade Details: • Entry: 40,770 • Price is consolidating just under this resistance. Enter on breakout with volume confirmation. • Stop Loss (SL): 40,350 • Below recent support on the 15M chart and under the moving average. Conservative SL with volatility in mind. • Take Profit (TP): 41,450 • Measured move from the flag pattern and aligns with Fibonacci extension and historical resistance. FUSIONMARKETS:US30
FUSIONMARKETS:US30Long
by KeN-WeNzEl
BOJ vs Fed: Fueling a Japan 225 Recovery?After an aggressive selloff that pushed Japan 225 (Nikkei) into oversold territory, the index printed a solid bullish reaction off the 30,500 key zone. This area aligns with prior demand and offers a clean invalidation level for long positioning. With heavy bearish sentiment already priced in, I’m positioning long with TP near the premium zone around 40,000. The fundamental picture may be stormy, but technically, this is a textbook reversal play, I’m ready to ride it. Technicals: • Price reacted from major support around 30,500–30,800 zone, a level that held in the past. • Daily imbalance filled, creating the perfect spot for a potential rebound. • Descending channel break on lower timeframes indicates early bullish structure shift. • Target zone: 39,000–40,000. • SL: Below recent swing low, respecting tight risk management. Fundamentals: • Global Risk-Off Sentiment: Recession fears and tariffs pushed risk assets lower — Nikkei included. • Tariff-Driven USD Weakness: US tariffs created uncertainty and drove global equity selloffs. However, hopes for a US-Japan trade deal are increasing, favoring the JPY and supporting Japanese equities. • BOJ-Fed Divergence: BoJ is expected to raise rates due to broadening inflation, while the Fed is seen cutting rates soon. This differential supports capital inflows into Japan. • Flight to Safety: Japan’s stable economy and improving policy outlook make it attractive as global volatility increases. The selloff may have been excessive due to panic over macro headlines. However, price structure tells its own story, and it’s hinting at a bullish reversal. With multiple technical and fundamental confluences lining up, this is a well-balanced long opportunity with clear risk parameters. Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
OANDA:JP225USDLong
by AR33_
US500: A correction will give a perfect opportunityHello, The US500 has rebounded, maintaining its trendline as trade tension concerns subside. A promising trade setup is emerging, pending a minor correction on lower timeframes. The 2-hour and 4-hour charts indicate this correction is underway. Long term target: $6,953 Consider entering a buy position near the moving averages, aligned with MACD signals. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:US500Long
by thesharkke
KEEP LONG ENTRIES FOR NEXT TOP AT 46500We will move our pivot point up from previous pivot, target price is 46500, timezone is marked between 2nd to 23rd December 2024 to align with the top. Price and time are growing out in well structured Phi models and we expect that if 46500 price is reached within the marked timezone then a strong market correction will follow. Although our actual projection for the major market top still remains at 27th October 2025 we expect that markets will begin to stall if price reaches the 46500 price level earlier. Trade safe
TVC:DJILong
by MENA-MARKETS-PRO
Nifty Analysis EOD - May 6, 2025 - Tuesday🟢Nifty Analysis EOD - May 6, 2025 - Tuesday 🔴 📌 Opening Mood: A deceptive start near resistance—buyers had a moment, but bears owned the day. 📊 Nifty Summary: Nifty opened at 24,509, precisely at the psychological and structural resistance zone. The first candle itself (O=H) reflected immediate selling pressure, and the index slid quickly, dropping 140+ points in the first hour. It tested the support zone around 24,330 ~ 24,365, which had earlier acted as resistance—a polarity zone now holding as support. Despite multiple attempts, Nifty couldn’t break back above the upper consolidation band (around 24,400–24,410). For most of the day, it traded in a tight 40–50 point range and eventually settled near the lower end of that range at 24,379.60, while intraday close came in at 24,331.80. ⏱ Intraday Walk (5-min Time Frame Highlights): 🔻 First hour: Quick 140-point drop straight into support 🔄 10:30 AM–2:50 PM: Multiple bounce-back attempts failed at 24,400 and 24350 🧊 3:00 PM–3:30 PM: High volatility zone, test both sides of the range and the day ends with a new low. 🔒 Close: Near day’s low—weak handoff for next session 🧭 Daily Candle Breakdown 📌 Today’s Candle Type: Strong Bearish Candle 📖 Know How of Candle Type: This candle type signals strong seller dominance. The real body is wide with almost no upper wick, implying bears controlled the day from start to end. Appears frequently after a failed attempt to break resistance. 📌 Today’s OHLC: Open: 24,500.75 High: 24,509.65 Low: 24,331.80 Close: 24,379.60 Change: –81.55 (–0.33%) 📐 Candle Structure: 🔹 Real Body: 121.15 points → Strong Red Body (Bearish Control) 🔹 Upper Wick: 8.90 points → No meaningful buying (Daily TF, Intraday No Wick) 🔹 Lower Wick: 47.80 points → Slight pullback, but bears still dominate(Daily TF) 📌 Interpretation: Bears were in control from the opening tick The candle sits near the bottom of the day’s range Comes after a bullish candle at resistance → Potential short-term reversal signal Watch for confirmation below 24,330 to trigger an extended downside ⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update 📌 Strategy Parameters: ATR: 290.90 IB Range: 129.85 IB Category: Medium IB Market Structure: Balanced 📌 Trade Highlights: 🔹 Trade Count: 1 ✅ Long Trigger @ 11:25 AM → Minor profit as Trade Time Exit Trigger 🔮 What’s Next? 🟥 Short bias: Only below 24,330 with conviction 🟩 Long bias: Only if the price crosses and sustains above 24,460 ~ 24,490 ⚠️ Between these levels: Avoid directional bets. Look for scalping setups only. 🔍 Support & Resistance Levels 📌 Resistance Zones: 24,400 ~ 24,420 (Immediate hurdle) 24,480 ~ 24,530 (Key zone with 24,500 psychological level) 24,590 24760~24,800 📌 Support Zones: 24,365 ~ 24,330 (Immediate support) 24,290 24,245 ~ 24,240 24,188 24,050 24,000 ~ 23,950 23,820 23,710 ~ 23,660 🧠 Final Thoughts "In tight ranges, patience is not just a virtue—it’s a strategy. Let the levels do the talking." ✏️ Disclaimer This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NSE:NIFTY
by kzatakia
S&P500 Stuck between the 1D MA50 and 1D MA200.The S&P500 index (SPX) is now on a short-term correction following the impressive recovery of the last 30 days that made it almost test its 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). This is a technical rejection but the fact that the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is now the Support can be encouraging. The reason is that since January 2023, every time the index broke above its 1D MA50 it turned into a Support that held and produced an immediate bullish extension on every occasion except for one time (Sep 2024), which still recovered 1 week after. As a result, it is more likely for SPX to test its All Time High (ATH) by July than entering a long-term correction again. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:US500Long
by TradingShot
May 6, 2025 - Markets Hold Their Breath Before Powell SpeaksHello everyone, it’s May 6, 2025 and markets are once again at the mercy of politics, Powell, and presidential mood swings. After a 9-day rally, U.S. markets finally took a breather yesterday, with mild profit-taking ahead of the much-anticipated Federal Reserve decision. Investors are caught between two competing visions: Trump’s push for massive rate cuts, insisting inflation is a myth cooked up by bureaucrats, and Powell’s more sober stance acknowledging inflation isn’t dead, the economy is softening, and premature easing could trigger full-blown stagflation. With Friday’s job report stronger than expected, Powell is expected to hold rates steady, staying cautious while tariffs and growth clouds loom. Markets are pricing in a July cut at best, but uncertainty lingers mostly around what Trump might tweet in reaction to Powell’s speech tomorrow night. Meanwhile, despite the 90-day tariff moratorium, the trade war narrative hasn’t vanished. NYSE:F suspended its 2025 outlook, citing $1.5 billion in expected tariff costs and four major risks: disrupted supply chains, retaliatory measures, unclear tax policies, and emission rules. NASDAQ:MAT is also hedging its bets shifting production out of China and pausing forecasts, while begging for zero tariffs on toys “for the kids.” Their stocks dropped modestly after hours. OANDA:XAUUSD surged again to $3,368, as fear and safe-haven demand ticked up. BLACKBULL:WTI rebounded to over $58 following an OPEC statement, helping airline stocks breathe a bit. BINANCE:BTCUSDT continued its meteoric rise, now sitting around $94,400. On the macro front, inflation data like CPI and PPI are being shrugged off everyone’s waiting to see if Powell plays ball with Trump. There’s hope, too, that all this chaos is just Trump’s way of muscling the world into negotiation especially China and if a “deal” emerges, markets could rip higher. Until then, we’re stuck dancing between uncertainty and hope. Asia opened strong this morning, led by China’s cautious optimism. Futures point slightly lower in the U.S., and volatility remains king. The Fed could flip the script tomorrow or keep us hanging. Stay buckled in.
SP:SPX
by SmartApingAI
DowJones INTRADAY falling resistance at 41420Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 41420 Resistance Level 2: 41900 Resistance Level 3: 42470 Support Level 1: 40240 Support Level 2: 39760 Support Level 3: 39150 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US30
by TradeNation
S&P500 INTRADAY resistance at 5510US stock futures are signaling a second straight day of losses. Palantir shares dropped 9% pre-market after its earnings disappointed high expectations. Ford also fell, withdrawing its financial guidance and warning that new tariffs would hurt profitability. In Europe, political uncertainty hit German markets as Friedrich Merz failed to secure a majority vote to become Germany’s next chancellor, delaying his swearing-in and shaking investor confidence. The DAX index slid 1.4% on the news. Meanwhile, EU-US trade tensions are intensifying. The European Union expects new US trade probes could expose up to €549 billion ($622 billion) worth of EU exports to American tariffs, adding pressure to already strained transatlantic negotiations. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 5693 Resistance Level 2: 5780 Resistance Level 3: 5876 Support Level 1: 5512 Support Level 2: 5438 Support Level 3: 5390 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation