SPX500 Outlook – CPI Data in Focus, Key Pivot at 6282SPX500 – Market Outlook
U.S. futures are climbing as Nvidia plans to resume chip sales to China, fueling positive momentum across tech and growth sectors.
However, investor caution remains ahead of key events:
Major banks ( NYSE:JPM , NYSE:WFC Wells Fargo, NYSE:C Citigroup) will report earnings, offering insights into the financial sector.
All eyes are on the June CPI report, expected at 2.6%. A higher reading could reinforce bearish pressure, while a softer print would support continued bullish momentum.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 has bounced from the demand zone and is now trading above the pivot at 6282, which keeps the bullish trend in play.
As long as the price holds above this level, we expect continuation toward 6341, and if broken, extended upside toward 6394.
To shift bearish, price must break and close below 6223, which would open the path toward 6142.
Pivot: 6282
Resistance: 6341 – 6394
Support: 6225 – 6191 – 6142
Event Watch : CPI data release today – anything above 2.6% may trigger downside; below 2.6% could support further upside.
Previous idea:
Market indices
Nas100 Long We Currently Have an Ascending triangle (bullish continuation pattern) Forming After Asian Session & Price is consolidating just below the resistance level, forming higher lows.
We Have a Clearly defined demand zone below current price (gray box), Which also marks out our Bullish Order Block Formed Yesterday Which Price Should Come Retest Before Continuing Upwards.
Pro Tip for CPI Events
Expect increased volatility and fakeouts within the first few minutes.
Wait for a 5–15 min candle close for confirmation before entry.
Use lower timeframes (1m–5m) for entries, but keep higher timeframe structure in mind.
Remember To Like & Subscribe For More A+ Setups✅
deepseek→→U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlookchina deepseek↓↓
### **U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Recent Analysis and Outlook**
#### **1. Current Market Trends and Driving Factors**
- **Trade Policies Boost the Dollar**: U.S. President Trump recently announced new tariffs on Canada (35%), the EU, and Mexico (30%), triggering risk-off sentiment and pushing the Dollar Index (DXY) from 97.20 to around 98.00.
- **CPI Data as a Key Variable**: The U.S. June CPI data, released today (July 15), will influence market expectations for Fed rate cuts. Stronger-than-expected inflation could reinforce the dollar's rally, while weak data may weaken it.
- **Shift in Market Sentiment**: Unlike the "dollar sell-off" trend in early 2025, recent market reactions have leaned toward treating the dollar as a "safe-haven asset" rather than selling it solely due to trade war concerns.
#### **2. Technical Analysis**
- **Key Resistance and Support Levels**:
- **Resistance**: 97.80-98.00 (short-term critical range). A breakout could test 98.50 or even 99.00.
- **Support**: 97.50 (50-day moving average). A drop below may target 96.38 (June low).
- **Technical Indicators**:
- **MACD**: A golden cross has formed on the daily chart, but it remains below the zero line, suggesting the current rebound may still be corrective.
- **RSI**: Near the 50 neutral zone, not yet overbought, indicating room for further upside.
#### **3. Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook**
- **Short-Term (1-2 Weeks)**:
- **Bullish Scenario**: If CPI data is strong and DXY breaks above 98.20, it could challenge 98.50-99.00.
- **Bearish Scenario**: Weak CPI data or progress in trade talks may push DXY back to 97.30-96.50.
- **Long-Term (Second Half of 2025)**:
- **Structural Pressures Remain**: Despite the short-term rebound, the dollar still faces long-term challenges, including widening U.S. fiscal deficits, de-dollarization trends, and concerns over Fed independence.
- **Historical Trend**: After falling over 10% in the first half of 2025, DXY may continue its downtrend in the second half, though the pace of decline could slow.
#### **4. Key Risk Factors**
- **Fed Policy**: If CPI data reinforces a "higher-for-longer" rate outlook, the dollar may strengthen further. Conversely, rising rate-cut expectations could weigh on the dollar.
- **Geopolitics and Trade Talks**: Compromises from the EU or Mexico could reduce safe-haven demand, while failed negotiations may fuel further dollar gains due to risk aversion.
### **Conclusion**
The DXY is at a critical juncture, with short-term direction hinging on CPI data and trade policy developments. Technicals lean bullish, but long-term fundamentals remain challenging. Traders should closely monitor the 98.00 breakout and today’s CPI data impact.
The best strategies if the US dollar rebounds this summerFor several months now, the US dollar (DXY) has been under pressure against the major currencies, falling by over 11% since the start of the year. However, technical and fundamental signals suggest that a low point could be reached this summer. In this scenario, it is essential to measure the possible consequences on the markets and anticipate the best strategies to protect or boost your portfolio.
At this stage, the US dollar has not confirmed a major low, but it will eventually happen, so it's important to anticipate the consequences for all asset classes, and identify the best strategies to implement at an early stage, particularly on Forex.
In this new analysis in the TradingView columns, we ask a number of questions, including the impact on gold, the price of bitcoin and Forex vehicles for exposure to a possible rebound in the US dollar.
1) On the technical front, many of the bearish targets have been made
The first point to watch is the technical configuration. The DXY is now evolving on long-term support levels, with divergences indicating that the downtrend is running out of steam. Indicators such as the RSI and MACD show that selling pressure is weakening on the weekly timeframe. The monthly uptrend line is still active, although the signal varies according to the scale chosen. It's still too early to say that the US dollar has made its final low, but it's worth bearing in mind that most of the bearish technical targets in Elliott waves have been made.
2) If the US dollar were to rebound this summer, what impact would this have on gold and the bitcoin price?
Secondly, a rebound in the dollar would have a direct impact on other asset classes. Gold is influenced by several fundamental factors, notably its inverse correlation with the US dollar and the impact of GOLD ETFs, which are themselves closely linked to the underlying trend in the US dollar. Overall, we believe that if the US dollar were to rebound, gold would lose a good third of its bullish fundamentals. The table below summarizes the factors influencing gold's underlying trend.
Crypto-currencies, and Bitcoin in particular, could also be penalized by a stronger dollar and a contraction in global liquidity (M2). The US dollar plays a very direct role in the calculation of M2 global liquidity, and the bitcoin price is highly correlated with the underlying trend in M2 global liquidity. This indicator, which aggregates the money supply of the major economies converted into US dollars, generally acts on bitcoin with an average lag of around 12 weeks. The latest statistics show a new all-time high for this global liquidity.
This factor is helping to sustain the upward trend observed since April, despite a complex fundamental context marked by a Federal Reserve determined to maintain a restrictive monetary policy in the short term.
The US dollar, by strengthening or weakening, directly modifies the total value of M2 expressed in dollars.
This contributes to the extent of global liquidity and, consequently, to the evolution of bitcoin. Consequently, if the US dollar rebounds this summer, expect a bearish impact on BTC from this autumn onwards.
3) If the US dollar rebounds this summer, what are the best Forex strategies to consider?
Finally, on a practical level, there are several strategies to consider. On Forex, a dollar rebound scenario calls for monitoring major pairs such as EUR/USD, in order to identify selling entry points if a top is confirmed.
But the most direct and unleveraged way to gain exposure to the US dollar (DXY) is through ETFs. Should the US dollar rebound, then exposure to a US dollar (DXY) ETF may be a good strategy. Unlike futures and CFDs, there's no leverage, so it allows for better risk management.
We also suggest that you keep a close eye on the USD/CAD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD currency pairs in the event of a summer rebound scenario for the US dollar against a basket of major currencies.
We will continue to bring you regular analysis on the US dollar to determine whether or not a major low will emerge this summer.
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NIFTY 2HNifty is currently trading around the 25,200 level and has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the chart, which typically indicates a period of consolidation before a major move. This pattern reflects a balance between buyers and sellers, with price making lower highs and higher lows, gradually converging towards the apex. A breakout from this triangle, especially with strong volume, signals the potential start of a new trend. In this case, if the breakout sustains and is followed by a successful retest of the breakout zone as support, it strengthens the bullish outlook. Based on technical projections, there is a strong possibility that Nifty could rally towards the 28,000 level, marking a significant upside move from the current range. However, traders should monitor volume and price action closely to confirm the breakout's strength.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Investing in the stock market involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Please consult with a certified financial advisor or conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. We are not responsible for any losses incurred as a result of using this information. Stock market investments are subject to market risks; read all related documents carefully.
Dow Jones H4 | Rising into a multi-swing-high resistanceThe Dow Jones (US30) is rising towards a multi-swing-high resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 44,845.48 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
Stop loss is at 45,240.47 which is a level that aligns with the 127.2% Fibonacci extension.
Take profit is at 44,124.85 which is an overlap support.
High Risk Investment Warning
Trading Forex/CFDs on margin carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Leverage can work against you.
Stratos Markets Limited (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (tradu.com ):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Global LLC (tradu.com ):
Losses can exceed deposits.
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$RUSSEL: Completion of Cup and Handle formation or higher?The small cap index $RUSSEL has had a good past couple of months and has bounced back from its lows. We visited the small cap index on May 1st when we identified the trend reversal. The $RUSSEL was in the recovery mode after the Liberation Day capitulation.
IG:RUSSELL in a bounce back mode. But upside is capped @ 2400 for IG:RUSSELL by RabishankarBiswal — TradingView
This cup and handle pattern is still on hold, and I also predicted that the upside is capped @ 2400. Currently the $RUSSEL is @ 2222.
So how much upside can we expect from here with TVC:DXY making new lows? My assumption is that $RUSSEL will fail to break above 2400, and the handle part will not break out of the reverse neckline. So, the upside in the small caps is capped @ 2400 which seems to be a major resistance indicating a 9% upside from here.
Verdict : $RUSSEL Cup and handle pattern nearing completion. 2400 is the upper resistance. Still some more room to run.
BANK NIFTY -1D - BEARISH EXPECTINGChart Insights : Day Chart
Index Trading at 56800 on 15-Jul-2025
Observed RSI Divergence on Bank Nifty 1 Day Chart.
- Bearish RSI Divergence: While Bank Nifty has been making higher highs, the RSI hasn’t followed suit. This disconnect suggests buyers are losing steam.
- Rising Wedge Pattern: The index is trading within a rising wedge—a bearish formation that often precedes a pullback. Breaking Rising Wedge would confirm the same.
Lets wait and see
Water point of view, the dollar needs a small shock rise after fWater point of view, the dollar needs a small shock rise after falling too much, slow down and continue to fall............
It was pulled up to the upper boundary before, and the decline was smooth and fast. What should I do if the decline is too fast? Slow down
Continue to see the decline, the trillion-dollar debt of the United States is a big pit, depreciation will prolong life
Major LowI'm buying puts expiring on October 31st, All Hallow's Eve.
I'll give price room to keep melting up to 666 at the farthest, that is my stop level. If we breach that price, then just know that tech is unstoppable and Artificial Intelligence is the Mark of the Beast.
If the market doesn't drop here, then the sky is the limit.
#Nifty directions and levels for July 15th:Good morning, Friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for July 15th:
There have been no major changes in the global market; it continues to maintain a moderately bearish sentiment, and our local market is also reflecting the same tone. Today, Gift Nifty is indicating a neutral to slightly gap-up start.
So, what can we expect today?
Current View:
Structurally, we are still in a minor downtrend. So, if the market fails to sustain the neutral start, we can expect a minor correction in the initial stage.
if the correction comes with a solid structure or the price consolidates around the immediate support, then the correction is likely to continue.
On the other hand, if the correction reaches the support with gradual moves, then the support may hold, and we can expect a minor pullback with a bearish bias.
Alternate View:
If the market takes a pullback, we can expect a maximum of 38% to 50% retracement on the upside. However, since we are still in a downtrend, once the pullback starts correcting again, we may expect a range-bound market or further correction, similar to what we saw in the last session.
#Banknifty directions and levels for July 15th:Current View:
Structurally, we are still in a minor downtrend. So, if the market fails to sustain the neutral start, we can expect a minor correction in the initial stage.
if the correction comes with a solid structure or the price consolidates around the immediate support, then the correction is likely to continue.
On the other hand, if the correction reaches the support with gradual moves, then the support may hold, and we can expect a minor pullback with a bearish bias.
Alternate View:
If the market takes a pullback, we can expect a maximum of 38% to 50% retracement on the upside. However, since we are still in a downtrend, once the pullback starts correcting again, we may expect a range-bound market or further correction, similar to what we saw in the last session.
#SENSEX Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 15/07/2025Sensex is likely to kick off the session with a gap-up opening around the 82500 level, reflecting early bullish momentum. If this initial strength holds and the index begins to build above the 82600–82650 zone, it could signal the start of a recovery leg toward higher resistance levels at 82800, 82900, and potentially 83000+. Sustained action above 82650 may encourage momentum traders to chase strength during the day.
However, the 82500–82650 range will act as a battleground. Failure to defend this zone could invite selling pressure. A breakdown below 82500 may expose the index to intraday weakness, opening downside targets at 82200, 82100, and even 82050. In this case, expect volatility to increase near support levels.
Traders should approach with a flexible strategy—watching for breakout confirmation above 82650 or signs of reversal pressure below 82500. Today’s early range could set the tone for the entire session.
#NIFTY Intraday Support and Resistance Levels - 15/07/2025Nifty is expected to open with a gap-up today near the 25050–25100 zone. If the index sustains above this level after the opening, bullish momentum could follow with potential upside targets of 25150, 25200, and 25250+. This zone will act as the key intraday support-turned-demand area.
However, if Nifty struggles to hold above 25200–25250 and shows signs of reversal from this zone, we might witness selling pressure. A rejection from this region could lead to a pullback toward 25150, 25100, and 25050 levels.
On the downside, a breakdown below 24950 will signal further weakness. If that level is breached decisively, it can lead to sharp downside movements toward 24850, 24800, and even 24750. This would indicate a reversal of early bullish sentiment.
Today’s session could remain volatile around key levels. It’s advisable to watch price action around the 25050–25250 range for intraday confirmation before taking directional trades.
[INTRADAY] #BANKNIFTY PE & CE Levels(15/07/2025)Bank Nifty is expected to open with a gap-up near the 56950 zone. If the index sustains below the 56900–56950 resistance range after the initial up-move, it could face selling pressure. A downside move from this level may trigger a correction toward the 56750, 56650, and 56550 zones. This level becomes a key intraday resistance.
On the downside, a breakdown below the 56650 level could intensify selling, leading to further downside targets of 56250, 56150, and 56050. This zone must be monitored closely as it holds short-term support strength. A decisive move below 56650 will shift sentiment bearish for the session.
On the other hand, a breakout and sustained move above 57100 could attract bullish momentum and may lead to upside targets of 57250, 57350, and even 57450+. Price action around the 57000–57100 mark will be crucial to determine any bullish continuation.
Overall, today's session is expected to open strong but watch for follow-through near the key zones. Traders should remain cautious and wait for confirmation around 56900–57100 for direction clarity.