Market indices
24589 proving to be a difficult resistance to conquerNifty once again tried to sustain the levels above 24500 but again faced resistance and pulled back. Amidst the drums of Ind-Pak war beating and ongoing tariff war the investors are afraid to take seriously long positions. Also we will have a US Fed rate decision coming up which is also adding to the investor anxiety. Mid and Small cap took the maximum brunt today due to all these factors. The Nifty resistance at 24589 is proving very difficult to be conquered with all the noise going around. Nifty resistance levels remain at 24509 and 24589 if we get a closing above 24589 Nifty can easily move for war 24813, and 25162. Supports for Nifty on the down side are at 24365, 24048, 23852 and the zone between 23515 (Mother line) and 23461 (Father line). If we get a closing below 23461, Nifty can again fall to the levels of 22802, 22148 or even 21625. (That is in adverse geo-political developments). A lot right now depends on Macro factors affecting the index and overall situation on Geo-Political front.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Extremist George Simion Leads Romania's Presidential Race The BET index, Romania’s main equity benchmark, is currently down only 3% following the shocking rise of far-right candidate George Simion to the top spot in the presidential race. This reaction appears highly underpriced given the substantial political and economic risks now looming over the country. A sharper correction—closer to 10% or more—is not only justified but likely overdue if Simion maintains or expands his lead.
We’ve seen a similar scenario unfold before: when Călin Georgescu, also associated with extreme-right narratives, unexpectedly won the first round of a previous election cycle (eventually annulled by the Constitutional Court), the BET index tumbled nearly 10% before stabilizing after the court’s decision. The current 3% drawdown feels detached from both precedent and the present risk profile.
Investors Are Already Voting With Their Feet
Capital flight has begun. Multiple institutional investors have reported reallocating capital away from Romanian assets. The leu has started to devalue against both the euro and the dollar, and Romania’s external borrowing costs are spiking—an early sign of waning investor confidence.
If George Simion were to win the presidency, the country could face a downgrade back to junk status. Romania barely emerged from junk in the last cycle, and ratings agencies have been flagging political instability and lack of institutional reforms as key risk factors. A Simion presidency would severely aggravate these concerns.
Risk Premium Not Yet Reflected in Stocks
From a valuation standpoint, Romanian equities still price in too much optimism. Domestic consumption remains weak, inflation is sticky, and the cost of financing is rising. Against this backdrop, a populist president with an unpredictable economic agenda could trigger capital controls, undermine central bank independence, or alienate EU partners—all of which should justify a steep risk premium.
What Could Happen Next?
A swift correction toward 10–15% on the BET index is possible if polls solidify Simion’s lead.
Leu depreciation could accelerate if the central bank is forced to defend the currency amid political turbulence.
Foreign investors may avoid Romanian bonds altogether, driving spreads up even further and pushing the yield curve into inversion.
Conclusion
Markets have a tendency to underestimate political risk—until they can’t anymore. Romania’s current situation is one of those moments. A 3% drop in the BET is not enough. If George Simion wins the presidency or even enters the second round with strong momentum, Romanian assets could face a reckoning. Investors should watch closely—and consider reducing exposure before the correction becomes disorderly.
Dow Jones Index (US 30) – Further Recovery Potential?The Dow Jones Index (US 30) has moved steadily higher over the last 10 trading days as traders continue to unwind short positioning attached to the popular sell US assets idea that seemed to dominate at the beginning of April, in the pre President Trump 90 day tariff pause era.
At the start of this new week, after a period of quiet trading on Monday, mainly due to the UK bank holiday, the focus for traders across the next 4 days may well be on whether President Trump and his negotiating team can report progress on trade deals with allies, as well as the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (Wednesday 1900 BST) and Press conference, led by Chairman Powell (commencing 1930 BST).
Now, while no change to US interest rates is expected at this meeting, the update from policymakers regarding their current outlook for the economy, inflation and path of interest rates across the rest of the year, could well generate some market moving headlines that may impact whether the US 30 continues to post fresh highs, or gives up some of its recent gains.
Technical Update: Further Recovery Potential?
The recent sharp sell-off that saw the Dow Jones Index fall more than 19% eventually found support around 36873, which was a level that was equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the October 2022 to December 2024 strength.
This type of decline back to such a retracement can sometimes see a reactive recovery materialise from the downside extremes in price, and as the weekly chart below shows, 36873 seems to have helped prompt the recent upside move.
Interestingly, the reactive recovery in the index has now seen closing breaks above 40783, a level that is equal to the 50% Fibonacci retracement of December 2024 to April 2025 price weakness, and traders may now be viewing this move as suggesting further possibilities for a more extended phase of price strength.
Assessing the Daily Chart
While the weekly chart levels are useful, it can also be helpful to assess the daily chart to try to gauge which levels, if broken, may suggest earlier clues for the next possible directional move in the Dow Jones Index, in the run up to, during and after the Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting and Press Conference.
Possible Resistance Levels:
With recent price strength breaking above resistance at 40783 (50% retracement of the latest decline) this may lead to a more sustained period of price strength.
As such, this may result in further attempts to push higher towards 41809, which is the 61.8% retracement, possibly even towards 42834, which is the March 26th session high.
Possible Support Levels:
The recent strong rally from the weekly support at 36873 (50% retracement of the October 2022 to December 2024 advance), possibly points to this as a long term support.
However, is there anything within the daily chart that may offer clues to shorter term support levels?
By calculating Fibonacci retracements of the April/May 2025 price strength, we can see the 38.2% level stands at 39991.
If closing breaks under this potential support were to occur, then risks might turn towards a more extended phase of price weakness towards 39570, the 50% retracement support level, even 39150, which is equal to the deeper 62% retracement.
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Hanzo | US30 15 min Breaks – Will Confirm the Next Move🆚 US30 – Hanzo’s Strike Setup
🔥 Timeframe: 15-Minute (15M)
——————
💯 Main Focus: Bullish Break at 41000
We are watching this zone closely.
💯 Main Focus: Bearish Break at 40950
We are watching this zone closely.
———
Analysis
👌 Market Signs (15M TF):
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 40850
• Liquidity Grab + CHoCH at 41000
• Strong Rejections seen at:
➗ 40800 – Major support / Key level
➗ 41000 – Proven resistance
🩸 Key Zones to Watch:
• 41000 – 🔥 Bullish breakout level X 6 Swing Retest
• 41100 – Strong resistance (tested 5 times)
• 40950 – Equal lows
• 41050 – Equal highs
BankNifty levels - May 07, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
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Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
Nifty levels - May 07, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
US30 (Dow Jones) – Trade Update | May 6, 2025As shared earlier today, price tapped perfectly into the demand zone around 40,920, and we're now seeing the bounce unfold.
✅ I’m currently looking to go long, targeting the 15-min FVG zone (around 41,160–41,240) — as per this morning’s projection.
🎯 Trade idea remains the same:
Valid bullish structure forming
Patience for price to push into the key supply/FVG zone
Will reassess for shorts once that level is reached
⚠️ As always: This is my personal prediction, not financial advice. Please do your own analysis, especially on a volatile NFP day like today. Protect your capital first.
#US30 #DowJones #LongSetup #FVGTarget #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TradingUpdate #VERUMAcademy
DAX40 INTRADAY corrective pullback supported at 22226The DAX40 continues to exhibit bullish sentiment, aligning with the prevailing short term uptrend. Recent price action suggests that the index experienced an oversold rally, which subsequently spiked above near a key resistance zone — the previous intraday consolidation level around 22,226.
This area now serves as a critical pivot point. A corrective pullback to 22,226, followed by renewed buying pressure, would likely confirm a bullish reversal, with upside targets at:
22,804 – Near-term resistance
23,252 – Medium-term resistance
23,475 – Long-term resistance level
However, if price breaks and closes firmly below 22,226 on a daily basis, the bullish scenario would be invalidated. In that case, the DAX40 could extend corrective pullback toward:
21,900 – Immediate support
20,457 – Major downside target
Conclusion
The bias remains bullish above 22,226, with rallies from that level offering potential long opportunities. A daily close below 22,226, however, would shift sentiment and open the door for bearish continuation toward lower support levels.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Is everyone missing the leading diagonal Ive seen conflicting Elliot Wave Counts with both Bullish counts suggesting a new ATH is at hand as the decline is only a 3 wave decline and not five and bearish counts suggesting this is only a bear market rally since the Trump Tariff Tantrums.
However if we look at the decline as either a leading diagonal in a primary 4th Wave of an overall bull market or a leading diagonal which often occurs in reversal of trend from Bull to bear or vice versa.
What is not commonly recognized is that the C wave in these structures is often pronounced and extended.
If this count is correct the Dow has about 1000 points of upside before a very sharp decline in an E wave that will probably throw-over the lower trendline and find support in the 35000 area for a significant Wave 2 or B wave rally.
The typical characteristics of the e wave are sharp and deep.
S&P500 Short Update: Break of TrendlineThis is an update to my short idea 2 days ago. I believed that the reversal for S&P500 has already begun and that I expect a move down from the breaking of the lower trendline.
Apologies for the audio as I am testing out a new setup (with a new portable microphone).
Bearish correctionDax is falling after reaching its upper bound, but has failed to move above it. The rejection of price from the all-time high zone may yield a correction towards the midpoint of the previous bullish trend. However, if price action regains upward momentum, the indice may stall the bearish correction and try to pursue the bullish continuation.
Taiwan Dollar Weakens Past 30 per USD Amid Trade Rumors and CentThe Taiwanese dollar weakened past 30 per USD on Tuesday, reversing a two-day rally and retreating from its strongest level in nearly three years.
📉 Recent gains in Asian currencies like the TWD and MYR were fueled by speculation over regional support for U.S. trade talks. However, Taiwan’s central bank denied any such coordination, stating the U.S. made no formal request. President Lai Ching-te also warned against spreading misinformation.
🔧 As a key player in global chip production, Taiwan remains highly exposed to shifts in trade dynamics and geopolitical risks.
Will NASDAQ Continue Its Climb? Here's my Trade Plan.📈 NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) Technical & Price Action Outlook 💡🚀
The NASDAQ has been in a strong bullish trend, driven by optimism around interest rates, tech earnings, and positive momentum. 📰💻 While price has pushed up aggressively, it’s now trading near key highs and buy-side liquidity zones—a spot where I’m anticipating a possible pullback. 🔁💰
I’m watching closely for a retracement into the 50% Fibonacci zone—my point of interest for a potential long setup. 🎯📐 However, I’ll only consider entering if price breaks structure bullish (BoS) after the pullback. 📊🧠
The index is still recovering from earlier 2025 losses, and resistance lies just ahead—so risk management is key. 🧘♂️⚠️
Not financial advice.
From Euphoria to Exhaustion: DAX 8H Short LoadedAfter an impressive rally, DAX has now returned to its previous highs. But this upward move looks more like an engineered push rather than a healthy breakout. From a technical and sentiment-based perspective, it feels overextended. That’s why I initiated a short position from this level. No need to predict the top—just follow the setup and manage risk.
Technicals:
• Price has returned to previous highs after a sharp V-shaped recovery.
• The rally lacks structure—no clear consolidation or volume support.
• We’re also near a historical EQ level that has acted as a turning point before.
Fundamentals:
• Philips cut its 2025 profit margin forecast citing U.S. tariffs as a major drag—this isn’t an isolated signal.
• Hugo Boss and other exporters confirmed revenue weakness due to U.S. trade tensions, adding to the bearish bias for European equities.
• President Trump’s warning about additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals could severely affect key European sectors.
• Global trade uncertainty and tariff retaliation fears have returned. These external shocks are significant for export-heavy indices like the DAX.
• With the Fed’s policy decision pending and no concrete trade deals, markets are shaky. Sentiment remains fragile.
This isn’t just a chart move — it’s a narrative setup. Markets can push higher on euphoria, but engineered rallies without backing tend to snap. I don’t need to catch the top perfectly — just be in when reality bites back.
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
Bank Nifty Short Trade – All Targets Achieved✅ Bank Nifty Short Trade – All Targets Achieved
📉 Setup Type: FVG Rejection + MSS Breakdown
🕒 Timeframe: 15-Minute
📊 Market Bias: Bearish
📍 Entry Price: ₹55,144.20
🔴 Stop Loss: ₹55,386.10
🎯 Targets:
• Target 1 Hit – ₹54,934.80
• Target 2 Hit – ₹54,725.40
• Final Target 3 ✅ ₹54,516.00 ✔️
🧠 Trade Breakdown:
BankNifty rejected from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, followed by a clear Market Structure Shift (MSS). Price consistently traded below the EMA ribbon, confirming the bearish momentum.
This setup played out exactly as planned with all 3 targets being cleanly hit.
📈 Key Highlights:
✔️ Rejection from FVG
✔️ EMA + Structure Confirmation
✔️ MSS + Strong Momentum
✔️ Clear Risk-to-Reward Execution
🟢 Conclusion:
A textbook short setup – clean structure, solid confirmation, and disciplined execution.
Such precise setups don’t come every day!
DAX H4 | Falling toward an overlap supportThe DAX (GER30) is falling towards an overlap support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 22,794.30 which is an overlap support.
Stop loss is at 22,200.00 which is a level that lies underneath a swing-low support.
Take profit is at 23,447.57 which is a multi-swing-high resistance.
High Risk Investment Warning
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 63% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Losses can exceed deposits.
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US30 (Dow Jones) – Bounce + Rejection Setup – May 6, 2025🔍 Setup Summary:
Price followed my Tuesday prediction precisely, breaking down from the mid-range and now tapping into a demand zone. From here, I expect a bounce into the descending channel, targeting the 15-min FVG and supply zone around 41,160–41,220, before a potential rejection for a deeper move down.
📉 Trade Idea:
Waiting for confirmation of bullish intent from the current demand zone (~40,960–41,000), with a potential retracement into the FVG zone. I’ll then be watching closely for bearish price action to re-enter short in line with overall structure.
✅ Confluences:
Demand zone reaction expected
15-min Fair Value Gap + trendline + supply confluence
Downward channel still in play
Previous prediction unfolding as expected
📌 Bias: Short-term bullish bounce, then bearish continuation
🕒 Timeframe: 15-minute chart
🎯 Watch Levels:
Entry long: ~40,960–41,000 (confirmation needed)
TP1 (for longs): 41,160
Re-entry short zone: 41,160–41,220
Extended bearish targets: below 41,000
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This idea reflects my personal analysis and bias. It is not financial advice. Always do your own research, apply risk management, and trade only when you have clear confirmation. Protect your capital first.