Dollar holds steady uptrend despite Trumpโs tariff threats.
President Trump announced a 30% tariff on imports from both the EU and Mexico, a hike from the 20% previously imposed on the EU in April. He also warned that if no agreement is reached on the Ukraine war within 50 days, countries trading with Russia could face a 100% tariff.
Meanwhile, market volatility is being amplified by speculation over Fed Chair Powellโs potential dismissal, as attacks against him intensify from Trump and his allies. Deutsche Bank warned that Powellโs removal could trigger sharp swings in both the dollar and bond markets.
DXY has extended its two-week rally after testing the recent low, approaching the 98.00 threshold. The index remains within the ascending channel, indicating the potential continuation of bullish momentum. If DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.25, the index could gain upward momentum toward 98.60. Conversely, if DXY breaks below the support at 97.60, the index may retreat to 97.00.
Market indices
Bullish rise?GER40 has reacted off the support level which lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and could potentially rise from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 24,135.27
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 23,928.93
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support that aligns with the 71% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 24,624.49
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance.
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DOW (DJI) -- Preparing For The Next Big Move?Hello Traders!
The chart of the DOW is really quite incredible... Recently price formed a textbook Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern, which led to a nice nearly to the all time high. Furthermore price looks to be consolidating in a Bullish Pennant just below the all time high resistance level.
The reason the Pennant below resistance is so significant is because this signals that investors are likely preparing to drive price higher to new highs. Think about it like a fighter resting before the next big fight.
Triple Top: In addition to the pennant price has now hit this resistance level for the 3rd time. The more times price hits a level typically the weaker it gets. After the 3rd hit the chance of a breakout increases dramatically.
In Summary: The "Triple Top" in conjunction with the "Bullish Pennant" means that there is undoubtedly a very high probability that price will breakout and make new all time highs.
This post is primarily meant to be educational vs a trade idea. Its charts like this that invigorate my technical analysis side and I hope it does for you as well.
Best of luck on your trading journey!
Bullish bounce off pullback resistance?Dow Jones (US30) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 44,312.73
1st Support: 44,212.79
1st Resistance: 44,554.09
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NAS100 Forecast 24HAs of Tuesday, July 15, 2025, 2:03:11 AM UTC+4 the forecast for US100 (Nasdaq 100) in the next 24 hours presents a mixed outlook, with underlying bullish sentiment but caution due to ongoing market dynamics and potential for short-term pullbacks.
Factors Contributing to a Bullish Bias:
Underlying Strength and Breakout Behavior: Despite some short-term bearish technical signals, the Nasdaq is described as being in "breakout mode," decisively overriding key levels. This suggests underlying bullish momentum.
AI as a Growth Driver: Artificial intelligence (AI) remains a primary growth driver for the US economy and the technology sector, which heavily influences the Nasdaq 100. Confidence in secular tailwinds like cloud computing and semiconductor demand also persists .
Temporary US Dollar Weakness: The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently in a retracement phase, pulling back after strength. A weaker dollar can provide a relief rally for risk assets like the Nasdaq, making US tech stocks more attractive to international investors.
Potential for Federal Reserve Rate Cuts: While no rate cuts are expected over the summer, a rate cut is considered likely in September. Historically, phases of moderate interest rate cuts in the absence of a recession have been positive for the US stock market.
"Buy on Dip" Mentality: Some analyses suggest that any short-term declines could be viewed as buying opportunities, indicating an underlying positive sentiment among investors.
Strong Earnings Expectations (for some tech): Despite general market concerns, some technology companies associated with AI innovation are expected to perform well, contributing positively to the index.
Factors Suggesting Caution and Potential for Bearish Movement/Volatility:
Escalating Trade Tensions (Trump's Tariffs): President Trump's continued aggressive protectionist stance and new tariff threats (e.g., against Canada) are a significant risk. These can create uncertainty, weigh on corporate profits, and lead to market volatility. This is frequently cited as the main risk for US indices.
Short-Term Technical Bearishness: Some technical analyses indicate a high chance of bearish candle closures across various timeframes (1H, 4H, Daily, Weekly, Monthly) , and some traders are eyeing selling opportunities from specific resistance zones (e.g., around 22,800-22,869).
Overvalued Growth Stocks: Following a recent rally, US stocks, particularly growth stocks, are trading at a premium to fair value. This can limit upside potential and make the market more susceptible to corrections if tariff negotiations falter or earnings guidance disappoints.
Market Seasonality: As we move into the latter half of July, market seasonality can shift from bullish to a more bearish stance.
Earnings Season and "Sell on the News" : While major financial institutions are kicking off Q2 earnings season, there's a potential for a "sell on the news" response, even if earnings aren't particularly bad, given the strong rally stocks have already staged.
Mixed Global Signals: European markets showing mixed performance and pressure from US futures suggest cautious global risk sentiment, which could cap upside for the Nasdaq.
Unfilled Stock Imbalances: Some technical analysis points to an unfilled stock imbalance around 22,300, which could act as a reaction point if the price pulls back.
Key Levels to Watch (Approximate):
Support: 22,600, 22,300 (unfilled imbalance), 21,611 (resistance-turned-support), 20,673 (Fibonacci extension and prior high).
Resistance: 22,800, 22,869, 23,000-23,100 (potential re-entry targets for rally continuation), 25,000-25,100 (approximate imbalance level to be filled).
In conclusion, for the next 24 hours, the US100 is likely to face a battle between underlying bullish momentum driven by AI and potential Fed policy, and the immediate headwinds of escalating trade tensions and some short-term technical bearishness. Traders should be prepared for volatility and quick shifts in sentiment based on news flow, particularly regarding trade and upcoming earnings reports.
For those interested in further developing their trading skills based on these types of analyses, consider exploring the mentoring program offered by Shunya Trade.
I welcome your feedback on this analysis, as it will inform and enhance my future work.
Regards,
Shunya Trade
โ ๏ธ Disclaimer: This post is educational content and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, or trading recommendations. The views expressed here are based on technical analysis and are shared solely for informational purposes. The stock market is subject to risks, including capital loss, and readers should exercise due diligence before investing. We do not take responsibility for decisions made based on this content. Consult a certified financial advisor for personalized guidance.
SPX 6300 Highs to 6200 Lows - Watch Key LevelsThis week earnings season kicks off
-Notables include JPM, GS, BAC, WFC, NFLX, KMI, PEP and others
US Inflation (CPI and PPI) this week
-forecasts are showing HIGHER inflation
-consumers care, but markets may not
6300-6350 key resistance area for SPX
6200 key support area for SPX
If we break the 6200 floor, there's room to fall to 6000-5700 to find stronger support
I discuss the 50 day moving averarages on the S&P and Nasdaq as levels to watch
For the remainder of the month...
7/18 July Monthly Expiration
7/30 US FOMC (with Press Conference)
8/1 US Non-Farm
8/1 US Tariff Deadline (per Trump)
Markets will have to really love a slew of good earnings and good news to see more highs and melt-ups through this typically bumpy season (Aug-Sep)
Thanks for watching!!!
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot and could rise to the 50% Fibonacci resistance.
Pivot: 97.81
1st Support: 97.19
1st Resistance: 99.25
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
SPX - Next Target is 7000- SPX is currently trading around 6200 after breakout previous all time high.
- Price has formed a nice broadening wedge pattern and currently heading towards the next resistance line.
- We can expect a slight correction upt o 6100, and reversal towards 7000.
- I'm expecting SPX to hit 7000 target by Q1 of 2026.
Trade Opportunity
Entry: 6200
TP1: 6400
TP2: 6600
TP3: 6800
TP4: 7000
SL at: 6057
Stay tuned frequent updates
Cheers
GreenCrypto
NAS100/US100 Short Swing Trade for week Risking 1% to make 2%PEPPERSTONE:NAS100 / CAPITALCOM:US100 Short trade for week - its swing trade, with my back testing of this strategy, it hits multiple possible take profits, manage your position accordingly.
This is good trade, don't overload your risk like greedy, be disciplined trader, this is good trade.
Use proper risk management
Looks like good trade.
Lets monitor.
Use proper risk management.
Disclaimer: only idea, not advice
#BankNifty Weekly: Major Levels & Targets You Need to KnowDate: 14-07-2025
#Nifty Bank Technical Levels
Current Price: โน56,765.35
Pivot Point: โน56,849.40
Upside Targets (if price moves above Pivot)
| Target | Price |
| ----------- | ---------- |
| ๐ฏ Target 1 | โน57,596.25 |
| ๐ฏ Target 2 | โน57,816.00 |
| ๐ฏ Target 3 | โน58,178.48 |
| ๐ฏ Target 4 | โน58,540.95 |
๐ฝ Downside Targets (if price drops below Pivot)
| Target | Price |
| ----------- | ---------- |
| ๐ฏ Target 1 | โน56,103.76 |
| ๐ฏ Target 2 | โน55,882.80 |
| ๐ฏ Target 3 | โน55,520.33 |
| ๐ฏ Target 4 | โน55,157.85 |
๐ Support & Resistance Levels
Support: โน56,324.71
Resistance: โน57,376.51
Observations:
Since the current price is below the pivot (โน56,849.40), immediate bearish bias could be assumed unless a strong reversal happens.
A break below โน56,324.71 (Support) could trigger the downside targets.
Conversely, crossing back above the pivot may shift bias to bullish, targeting the resistance and beyond.
#TradingView #Stocks #Equities #StockMarket #Investing #Trading #Nifty
#TechnicalAnalysis #StockCharts #Finance #BankNifty #NiftyBank #WeeklyAnalysis
NASDAQ Is looking for a massive break-out to 24000!Nasdaq (NDX) is most likely taking advantage of the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) as a Support and after hitting it, it appears that the price will look for a way above the Parabola.
This might be similar to what took place after the May 07 test of the 4H MA50. The price broke above that parabolic pattern and peaked on the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we are looking for 24000 as a potential Target in the next 2 weeks.
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๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ๐ธ
๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐ ๐
Dollar looks ready to blast off...we'll see if its a risk assetBasic, strength and pattern analysis. Dollar appears to be completing its Primary A wave of a cyclical correction. Strength has built up, the pattern looks right, and leave it to a large magnitude A wave to complete in a no man's land of Fib support...(ABC extension corrective not pictured).
I would expect a run back up to the Intermediate B over the next 6-8 months, and maybe even higher. One more low is possible, but not necessary...neither from a pattern perspective, nor from a strength perspective, although I have a little extension box below in green, and if it is to extend, that is the target.
Dow Jones Technical Outlook โ July 2025The Dow Jones is currently trading in a tight consolidation range just below its major resistance zone near 45,200.
After a strong bullish rally, the index is showing signs of exhaustion with lower volatility and sideways price action โ forming a potential rectangle pattern. This type of structure typically signals a continuation or reversal, depending on the breakout direction.
๐ Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance: 45,200 โ A breakout above this level may trigger a strong upside rally toward
Support: 44,050 โ A breakdown below this can open the door for a retest of 43,200 or even 42,000.
Price is coiling โ the market is waiting. The next breakout could set the tone for weeks to come.
Nifty Analysis EOD โ July 14, 2025 โ Monday๐ข Nifty Analysis EOD โ July 14, 2025 โ Monday ๐ด
"Broken Support, Fought Resistance โ Tug of War in Play"
Nifty began the day with a classic Open = High (OH) setup, instantly rejecting any bullish intent. The crucial support zone of 25,080โ25,060 was taken out early, and the market went on to mark the day's low at 25,001.95, a level that quickly turned into a decisive battleground.
After a bounce from the low, 25,125 emerged as a stiff resistance that pushed the index back below the broken support zone. For most of the session, the same support zone turned into resistance โ a textbook polarity flip. However, in the final hour, Nifty showed resilience and finally closed back above 25,080, ending the session at 25,082.30.
๐ The structure was full of failed intraday breakouts, signaling confusion and conflict โ likely fueled by a wider CPR, imbalanced market structure, and medium IB of 109 pts. It was a low-volatility session, but packed with psychological tests.
๐ฏ 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
๐ฏ Daily Time Frame Chart with Intraday Levels
๐ฏ Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 25,149.50
High: 25,151.10
Low: 25,001.95
Close: 25,082.30
Change: โ67.55 (โ0.27%)
๐ Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 67.20 points โ small to moderate bearish body
Upper Wick: 1.60 points โ negligible upside attempt
Lower Wick: 80.35 points โ strong defense from dayโs low
๐ Interpretation
Opened higher but got instantly rejected (OH formation).
Sellers took charge early but failed to hold momentum all the way.
The long lower wick reflects buyer presence at key 25,000 zone.
The close below open but above reclaimed support suggests tug of war โ with bulls slightly redeeming themselves by EOD.
๐ฏ Candle Type
Hammer-like red candle โ while bearish on close, the long lower shadow indicates potential exhaustion of selling and hints at reversal if follow-through buying emerges next session.
๐ Key Insight
25,000โ25,020 has emerged as crucial near-term support.
A strong open or close above 25,150โ25,180 may confirm a bullish reversal setup.
Breakdown below 25,000 opens the door for a fall toward 24,950 or lower.
๐ก 5 Min Intraday Chart
โ๏ธ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 188.77
IB Range: 109.20 โ Medium IB
Market Structure: ๐ด Imbalanced
Trades Triggered
09:50 AM โ Long Trade โ โ SL Hit
01:05 PM โ Short Trade โ โ SL Hit
๐ Tough day for directional trades โ false breakouts dominated.
๐ Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
25,125
25,168
25,180 ~ 25,212
25,260
25,295 ~ 25,315
Support Levels
25,080 ~ 25,060
25,000 ~ 24,980
24,965
๐ญ Final Thoughts
โReclaimed ground doesnโt mean victory โ yet. Watch the next move. Rejection below 25,000 ends the bulls' narrative; a strong move above 25,180 rewrites it.โ
โ๏ธ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.