Yesterday DOW - Shorts🔻 US30 Reversal: How the Indicator Gave the Short from the Top
Yesterday, the ELFIEDT – X-REVERSION indicator gave stacked SELL signals near the very top of the move on US30 (15m chart) — before the full selloff began.
🧠 Here's how disciplined traders could have executed it step-by-step:
1️⃣ Signal Confirmation
A double “DOWN” label printed at the close of a large bullish candle.
This is where most retail traders are still buying — but the indicator identifies it as potential exhaustion.
2️⃣ Immediate Action Plan
Once the bar closed, a short trade could be entered at market or on a minor pullback.
✅ Stop-loss is always placed just above the signal candle’s high.
This setup offers minimal risk and sets up a great R:R profile.
3️⃣ Trade Progression
The next few candles confirmed rejection.
Even after some sideways chop, price continued lower — eventually giving up 400+ points from the signal area.
4️⃣ Why It Worked
Price was overextended.
RSI confirmed reversal (bearish momentum shift).
Signal printed on the close, giving live execution opportunity — no repainting.
✅ Key Lesson: The strongest trades with this system come when you follow the rules without hesitation. The signal doesn't lag — it prints at the very edge of emotion and momentum.
💡 Bonus Tip: If you trade other US indices like NAS100 or SPX at the same time — when they all print reversal signals simultaneously, the move is usually stronger.
📍 This was a textbook short setup using X-REVERSION.
Market indices
NASDAQ - Long now!⚡️ NAS100 15-Min Reversal Signal – Caught the Bottom?
The ELFIEDT – X-REVERSION indicator just printed a clean BUY signal on NAS100 after a strong sell-off into new session lows.
📉 Price had already extended far from structure
📈 RSI momentum began shifting and reversed sharply
✅ Volume spike and RSI reversal confluence added weight to the signal
📍 These types of signals are designed to catch mean reversion moves — especially powerful when price accelerates into extremes and the candle closes with absorption.
🎯 Remember: the signal is plotted on the close of the bar, meaning it doesn’t repaint and allows for real-time decision-making with a clear stop-loss just below the low.
💡 Watch for a potential retrace toward structure or session VWAP.
US30 Potential Rebound from Key Support Zone
US30 Potential Rebound from Key Support Zone 🚀📊
📉 Analysis Overview:
The US30 (Dow Jones Index) is currently testing a major support zone near the 41,800–41,900 range, a level that has held firm multiple times in the past (highlighted with green arrows and orange circles). This area has acted as a demand zone, leading to strong bullish reactions previously.
🔍 Key Technical Highlights:
🔸 Support Zone: Clearly respected at ~41,800. Price is once again bouncing here.
🔸 Resistance Zone: Around 43,250–43,500. This area has acted as a ceiling, where price struggled to break through.
🟢 Reversal Indicators: Multiple successful defenses of the support zone suggest accumulation and possible bullish reversal.
📈 Target Projection: If support holds, the price may rally toward the target zone near 43,496.4, as shown by the purple arrow.
📌 Conclusion:
As long as the 41,800 support holds, US30 shows bullish potential toward the 43,500 resistance. A break below this zone would invalidate the bullish scenario and shift focus back to the lower support near 41,250.
🛑 Risk Management Tip: Watch for confirmation candles and volume before entering long positions. Always set a stop-loss below the support zone.
DAX | Bearish Below 23810–23690, Targeting 23395 and 23160DAX | Technical Analysis
The price has stabilized below the pivot zone (23810 – 23690), confirming the continuation of bearish momentum.
📉 As long as the price remains below 23810 and 23690, the downtrend is expected to persist, with a potential move toward 23395. A confirmed break below this level could extend the decline toward 23160.
Pivot Zone: 23810 – 23690
Resistance Levels: 24085, 24300
Support Levels: 23395, 23160
Trend Outlook: Bearish Momentum
Nifty Analysis EOD – June 19, 2025 – Thursday🟢 Nifty Analysis EOD – June 19, 2025 – Thursday 🔴
📉 Bookish Spinning Top Doji – Another Day of Indecision on Expiry
Nifty opened with a mild +16-point gap-up and immediately dipped to test the Previous Day Low (PDL), marking the day low at 24,738.10. A quick reversal took the index 125 points higher, reaching a high of 24,863, only to settle back into theta-eating mode around VWAP.
Just as things looked ready to turn, a 13:50 breakout attempt fizzled as the price faced rejection above the CPR zone, leading to a final dip below the previous low, touching a new intraday low at 24,733.
Though the intraday close was at 24,744.70, the settlement close was 24,793.25 — a 47.65-point difference that’s not trivial, especially on expiry day.
The entire day remained a narrow-range, rollercoaster ride — clearly showing neither bulls nor bears could take charge. The total range was just 130 points, forming a textbook Spinning Top, which reflects market contraction.
📌 Now what?
Keep a close eye on the range:
🟢Bullish Breakout ➤ above 24,862 (CDH)
🔴Bearish Breakdown ➤ below 24,733 (CDL)
The squeeze is on. Expansion is near.
🕯 5 Min Time Frame Chart with Levels
🕯 Daily Time Frame Chart
🕯 Daily Candle Breakdown
Open: 24,803.25
High: 24,863.10
Low: 24,733.40
Close: 24,793.25
Change: −18.80 (−0.08%)
📊 Candle Structure Breakdown
Real Body: 10.00 pts → 🔻 Small Red Candle
Upper Wick: 59.85 pts
Lower Wick: 59.85 pts
🔍 Interpretation
Equal wicks show balanced buying and selling.
Small real body signals strong indecision.
Intraday volatility was neutral despite expiry impact.
🕯 Candle Type
⚖️ Perfect Spinning Top / Doji-like Candle – Indicates market contraction, waiting for directional resolution.
📌 Key Insight
The market continues its tight range-bound structure.
Any breakout beyond 24,865 or breakdown below 24,730 could trigger directional moves.
Till then: “Wait and watch mode.”
🛡 5 Min Intraday Chart
⚔️ Gladiator Strategy Update
ATR: 240.08
IB Range: 125.00 → Medium IB
Market Structure: ⚖️ Balanced
Trades:🚫 No Trade Triggered by System
📌 Support & Resistance Zones
Resistance Levels
24,894 ~ 24,882
24,972 ~ 25,000
25,060 ~ 25,080
25,102 ~ 25,125
Support Levels
24,825 ~ 24,847
24,725 ~ 24,735
24,660
24,590
💭 Final Thoughts
The market is compressing like a coiled spring.Spinning tops near resistance often signal upcoming volatility.Let the breakout come to you — don’t pre-empt, participate.
🧠 “When the market sleeps in narrow ranges, it dreams of big moves.”
✏️ Disclaimer
This is just my personal viewpoint. Always consult your financial advisor before taking any action.
NASDAQ Analysis Stalking shorts on the Daily - nearby.
My weekly sentiment is bearish cause of technical factors.
Among the catalysts is bullish performance on the US Dollar index and price action compared to the US30 & US500.
Look to sell near 4H swing high, entry using the 15M bearish ChoCh only after three legs of bullish correction on the 1H frame into the highlighted levels of the swing high.
Anticipation is for the third leg to react bearish and the fourth leg to deliver impulse to the sell side.
DAX Can today's 1D MA50 test start a new rally?Last time we looked at DAX (DE40) more than 2 months ago (April 04, see chart below), we took a long-term buy on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the bottom of the 2.5-year Channel Up, targeting 25400:
The price reacted favorably, rising almost instantly, almost hitting the top of the Channel Up on June 05. Since then it got rejected and pulled back to hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) today.
Based on the previous Bullish Legs of the Channel Up, this seems to be a technical correction (blue ellipse patterns) that only served as a 1D MA50 test to accumulate more buyers and extend the uptrend.
If the current Bullish Leg rises as high as the previous one (+38%), we should be expecting 25900 by the end of Q3.
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SPY where are we going into OPEX and last week of June tradingYesterday was almost an indecision candle on daily. Markets cheered the jobs data earlier in day with a nice green candle, however the pump faded going into FOMC, where AMEX:SPY and SP:SPX were around 600/ 6000 at 2pm. FOMC event mostly turned out to be a "non-event". While the no rate cut and 2 for 2025 were largely expected, Powell spooked the markets commenting that he expects higher inflation in months ahead due to tariffs. Off course this set of a set of comments from Trump which was expected as well.
While markets are closed today (Juneteenth) futures are open, and in after hours and now we have drifted downwards... as of this writing SPX is around 5950. Bulls lost the 9 sma yesterday and now are trying to defend the 20 sma. Tomorrow is OPEX so expect some volatility and movement to where big money is positioned.
Certainly bulls can show up and reclaim 9 ma at 6003 or if we lose 5950, the next level down is below 5800. Meanwhile JPM collar is intact... Do we go down from here. Tomorrow will be key as we will know if we have lost 20 sma or regained 9 sma and how this week candle looks like.
Bulls can charge but is there enough gas in tank to make meaningful upside move? Maybe possible pump to open next week (around 6060 was recent high), but bears are now lurking to take us down towards that 5800 level next week.
As I said earlier tomorrow will be telling and I will update over the weekend.
Nifty 50 Trapped in a Tight Range – Breakout or Breakdown Ahead?📍 Market Overview:
For over a month now, the Nifty 50 Index has been moving sideways in a tight consolidation range, frustrating both bulls and bears. Since May 12, 2025, the index has fluctuated between 24,350 on the lower side and 25,250 on the upper side, forming a classic rectangular pattern often associated with accumulation or distribution phases.
This zone is now becoming a crucial battlefield that could define the index’s direction for the coming sessions.
🔲 The Consolidation Zone
Support Zone: 24,350 – 24,450
Resistance Zone: 25,150 – 25,250
Consolidation Duration: ~30+ days
Current Price: 24,793.25
This range has seen multiple rejections at the top and bottom, reflecting indecisiveness in broader market sentiment. Traders are waiting for a trigger — either fundamental or technical — that could push the index out of this range with strength.
📈 Bullish Scenario: Breakout Above 25,350
If Nifty 50 breaks and sustains above 25,350, especially with higher volume and a strong daily close, it could signal a bullish continuation pattern. This scenario would be supported by:
A potential breakout from the rectangle consolidation.
Positive sentiment from global markets or domestic catalysts (monsoon, earnings, policy announcements, etc.)
A shift in FII or DII buying behavior.
📌 Breakout Target:
👉 26,000 – 26,100 (Based on measured move projection)
📌 Next Resistance Zone:
👉 26,050 – 26,200
In this case, traders may look for long opportunities with trailing stop-losses under the breakout zone.
📉 Bearish Scenario: Breakdown Below 24,350
On the flip side, a decisive breakdown below the 24,350 mark, especially with increased selling pressure and bearish candles, may lead to a quick decline toward the next major support levels.
📌 Breakdown Target:
👉 23,550 – 23,400
📌 Next Support Zone:
👉 23,500 – 23,300
This could trigger panic selling or profit-booking in frontline stocks. Caution is advised in such scenarios, and shorting opportunities may arise for experienced traders.
🧠 Strategic Insights for Traders
Avoid trading within the range: Unless you're scalping, wait for breakout/breakdown.
Watch global cues and FII flows: They often align with large breakouts.
Stick to risk management: Whichever direction the index moves, always set a stop loss.
🚀 Final Thoughts
The market is clearly in a wait-and-watch phase, but such consolidation periods often precede large moves. Nifty’s current structure suggests a breakout or breakdown is imminent — and being positioned correctly can make a big difference in returns.
Stay alert. Don’t predict — prepare.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any securities. Trading and investing in the stock market involve risk, including the risk of losing capital. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading decisions. We are not responsible for any losses incurred from decisions based on this analysis.
Nifty levels - Jun 20, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
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BankNifty levels - Jun 20, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
US30 Breaks Key Support as Geopolitical Risk Weighs on SentimentUS30 – Technical Overview
Amid rising Middle East tensions, the indices market remains under bearish pressure, with risk-off sentiment dominating.
US30 dropped to the 42160 level, as previously forecasted, and has now broken below it.
As long as the price trades below 42160, the bearish trend is expected to continue toward 41780, and potentially 41310 if that level fails to hold.
Key Levels:
• Pivot: 42160
• Support: 41900 / 41780 / 41310
• Resistance: 42310 / 42410 / 42580
NASDAQ 100 Under Pressure –Watching 21470 Break for ContinuationUSNAS100 – Technical Overview
USNAS100 has reached the support level we highlighted yesterday and continues to trade within a bearish trend, especially after confirming a 1H close below 21635.
Bearish Outlook:
As long as the price remains below 21635, the next target is 21470.
A break below 21470 would confirm further downside toward the support zone at 21375 and 21250.
Bullish Scenario:
Bullish momentum may return if the price breaks above 21635 on the 1H timeframe, targeting 21780 and potentially 21930 and 22090.
• Support: 21470 / 21375 / 21250
• Resistance: 21780 / 21930 / 22090
Geopolitics vs. Fed: SPX500 Trading Below Key Pivot at 5966SPX500 – Overview
Geopolitical Tensions & Rate Decisions Keep Markets on Edge
Investor focus has shifted from monetary policy to geopolitics, as speculation grows over a potential U.S. military strike on Iran.
According to Bloomberg, senior U.S. officials are reportedly preparing for possible action in the coming days. This comes as global markets remain cautious ahead of key central bank meetings that are expected to provide updated guidance on growth and inflation.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 5966.
A break and hold below 5966 targets 5938, with further downside toward 5902 and 5885
For a shift to bullish momentum, price must stabilize above 6010
• Support: 5938 / 5902 / 5885
• Resistance: 5989 / 6010 / 6041
DAX topping formation “neckline” resistance at 23,700The DAX equity index remains in a bearish technical setup, in line with the prevailing downward trend. Recent price action is forming a corrective pullback, suggesting temporary relief within a broader negative structure.
Key Technical Levels:
Resistance: 23,700 (previous intraday consolidation zone)
Support levels:
22,880 (initial target)
22,640
22,500 (longer-term support)
Bearish Scenario:
If the index rallies toward the 23,700 resistance and faces a rejection, this would likely confirm a continuation of the downtrend. In that case, downside momentum could accelerate toward the 22,880, 22,640, and potentially 22,500 support zones over the longer term.
Bullish Alternative:
A breakout above 23,700, confirmed by a daily close, would invalidate the bearish outlook and shift momentum in favour of the bulls. This would open the door for a move toward 23,920 and possibly 24,100 resistance.
Conclusion:
The bias remains bearish unless the DAX can break and close above 23,700. Traders should watch for price action around this key level to confirm trend direction. A rejection favors short positions targeting lower support levels, while a breakout invites a shift to a more constructive outlook.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 Under Pressure: Possible Short Setup Brewing on the 4HI'm currently eyeing the US30 (Dow Jones Index) for a potential short opportunity based on multi-timeframe structure 📊.
🔍 Weekly Overview:
The weekly chart continues to show sustained pressure, with this week and last week both closing bearish. The sellers are clearly in control at the macro level. 🔻
📆 Daily & 4H Structure:
Drilling down to the daily and 4-hour charts, we can clearly see a break of structure (BOS). The 4H specifically is showing textbook signs of a bearish trend with lower highs and lower lows forming consecutively 🪜🔽.
🎯 Trade Plan:
I'm watching for a pullback into equilibrium, ideally near the 50% level of the recent Fibonacci range. If price revisits that zone, I’ll be looking for short confirmations to ride the momentum back toward the previous lows, as marked on the chart. 🧠💸.
US dollar, a potential bullish divergence to watchThe US Federal Reserve (FED) recently updated its economic projections against a backdrop of growing uncertainty. It is now openly concerned about a scenario of stagflation, a combination of weak growth, persistent inflation and rising unemployment. This concern stems in particular from the as yet unquantified impact of the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, as well as rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East.
Gloomy forecasts, but monetary policy still flexible
At its last meeting, the FED kept its key rate in the 4.25% - 4.5% range, while publishing gloomy forecasts for the US economy. By the end of 2025, it anticipates PCE inflation at around 3%, unemployment at 4.5% and moderate growth. Despite this worrying picture, the central bank is still planning two rate cuts this year, demonstrating its determination to support economic activity.
Nevertheless, this monetary stance is the subject of debate within the committee: ten members support the cuts, while seven believe that rates should remain unchanged. Jerome Powell, Chairman of the FED, advocates caution, insisting on the need to observe the evolution of economic data before acting, particularly in view of the delayed effects of tariffs.
The FED is faced with a dilemma: it must curb inflation without destroying growth. Its diagnosis of stagflation is harsh, but perhaps too pessimistic if inflation figures remain under control. A rate cut in September is still conceivable, but will largely depend on the evolution of geopolitical tensions and international trade in the weeks ahead.
Below, you can see the table with the latest update of the FED's macroeconomic projections
US dollar (DXY), a potential bullish technical divergence to be monitored
The FED's confirmed intransigence is having an impact on the foreign exchange market. While the US dollar has been the weakest Forex currency since the beginning of the year, it has been stabilizing for several weeks now. If the FED maintains its current wait-and-see stance on a resumption of Fed funds rate cuts, the US dollar could be close to a low point on the Forex market.
At present, there are no resistance breaches to suggest this, but a potential bullish technical divergence has appeared on the weekly timeframe. In the past, this signal was a precursor to a future rebound in the US dollar against a basket of major Forex currencies.
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