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Dow Jones 4H Chart Analysis: Support Test & Potential Reversal 📉 Downtrend: The price was falling sharply before forming an upward channel. 📊 Channel Break: The price broke below the ascending channel 🚨. 🟦 Support Zone: The blue area marks a strong support region 📌. 🔵 Bounce Expected? If the price holds, a rebound could happen 📈. 🎯 Target: The projected upside target is 42,758.3 🚀. ⚠️ Risk: If the support fails, the price may drop further ⛔. 🔴 Watch for: A confirmed reversal near support or further breakdown!
CAPITALCOM:US30
by Jameshead007
NAS100 - Stock market still in a downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down, it will be clear that it is heading for further moves. At the channel ceiling, I could be close to the next sell-off. As the new US tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, new evidence suggests that they may be less than the markets had expected. According to a recent report in the Toronto Star, Canada is likely to face the lowest level of tariffs, while Mexico, another member of the US trade agreement, is likely to face a similar situation. In addition, Trump’s recent statements about significant progress in controlling fentanyl (an industrial drug), are seen as a positive sign for improving trade relations. In this regard, CNBC reported that VAT and non-tariff barriers will not be taken into account in calculating the tariff rate, or at least not fully. The main concern is that by threatening to impose a 25% tariff, Trump is actually preparing Canada and Mexico to accept higher rates than the current conditions. It seems that his goal is to impose the highest possible tariff level. This decision could be an incentive to increase tariff revenue to reduce taxes. Of course, such an approach is associated with high risks, since any level of tariffs can lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners. In the case of Europe, tariffs imposed on American goods are higher than in other countries, but a large part of them relate to the automotive industry. Europe has previously announced that it is ready to reduce these tariffs. The question now is whether the EU will take a different approach than Mexico and Canada? That is, first impose higher tariffs and then negotiate to reduce them. This scenario could ultimately benefit the US economy, as the bulk of its trade is with Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, China remains a complex challenge, as it is the main target of Trump’s tariff policies. In addition, the US president recently proposed imposing tariffs on Venezuela, which could be a pretext for intensifying trade pressure on China. Polls show that 50% of the market expects new tariffs on China, which indicates the level of investor concern. The European Union has reacted to the Trump administration’s decision to impose new tariffs on imported cars and expressed regret over the move. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc will seek a negotiated solution to ease tensions, but she has also stressed that Europe’s economic interests will be protected against US trade policies. The US credit rating has risen to a new low, according to a new report from Moody’s, which warns that tax cuts and trade tariffs could widen the country’s budget deficit. Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say investors expect the effective tariff rate on all imports to be between 9% and 10%, although some analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested a rate of 18%. However, inflation and exchange rate expectations point to lower figures. If Trump’s promise of “reciprocal tariffs” is implemented, the effective tariff rate could be even lower than 5 percent, although this depends on whether the agricultural sector is also subject to tariffs. Some reports also suggest that non-tariff barriers may be completely ignored. According to Deutsche Bank, it is very difficult to determine market expectations precisely. But if the tariff rate ultimately falls between 5 and 7.5 percent, markets are likely to react with more confidence. Otherwise, more volatility and turbulence in financial markets are expected. At the beginning of the year, markets were in a positive and optimistic mood. The Republican victory in the election, the continuation of tax breaks and the possibility of new support packages were among the factors that reinforced this optimism. However, factors such as the high US budget deficit, the deadlock in Congress and the high inflation rate have now challenged this optimism. Meanwhile, two important support tools that were effective in the past may no longer be as effective: 1. During Trump’s first term, the stock market was of particular importance to him. Even during the COVID-19 crisis, he constantly talked about the stock market and considered it part of his successes. The term “Put Trump” meant that even if he made harsh statements, he ultimately acted in the market’s favor. 2. But now, in Trump’s second administration, he talks about “short-term pain” and “economic detoxification.” Tariff threats, reduced investment and policy uncertainty have caused the S&P 500 to fall 10% since February. Trump still considers the market important, but he is no longer as staunchly supportive of it as he used to be. In addition, this week will include the release of a series of key economic data. Including: • Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS. • Wednesday: ADP Private Employment Report •Thursday: ISM services index and weekly jobless claims. One of the big risks to the markets is that economic data remains weak while the ISM price sub-indices rise. Such a situation could signal a deflationary tailwind. In such a situation, even if the Federal Reserve moves to lower interest rates, it will still be difficult for the stock market to grow.
CAPITALCOM:US100Short
by Ali_PSND
SPX500 Long at 55301. All timeframes are massively oversold due to the huge sell-off on Friday night 2. It is the start of the week, and it opened at the low, which tends to mean there would be some strength to go up 3. Unfortunately, I cannot check if there is a harmonic pattern due to technical difficulties. 4. This is at excellent support as it is at the year low 5. There is a lot of divergence due to this not being a long consolidation try to exit at M15 overbought 6. Stop loss below 5500
SPREADEX:SPXLong
by JavonDias_Trading
US30 Trade Outlook – 31/03/2025🚨 US30 Trade Outlook – 31/03/2025 🚨 📊 Market Structure & Key Levels US30 is currently consolidating after a steep selloff from the 42,800s. Price is sitting near short-term support at 41,434, but momentum remains bearish unless bulls step in fast. 🔍 Key Observations: 🔻 Strong Bearish Momentum – Sharp drop from resistance zones 🔹 Support Holding (for now): 41,400 🔻 Breakdown Risk: Below 41,400 opens the door toward 40,678 🎯 Trade Plan: 🔻 Short if 41,400 fails → Target 40,678 🔹 Long only if price reclaims 41,800+ and EMAs flip bullish ⚠️ Wait for clean confirmations – no chasing moves.
FX:US30
by h4rVey
US 100 Index – All Eyes On President Trump!Risk sentiment crumbled on Friday, taking the US 100 down 3% and within touching distance of its 2025 lows at 19113 from March 11th. More importantly it brought the index to a potentially crucial first retracement support level at 19065. Further details on this in the technical section below. The weekend brought little in the way of positivity, with protests against Tesla and Elon Musk across Europe, and comments from President Trump stating he ‘couldn’t care less’ if automakers raise prices in response to his 25% tariff on imported vehicles, as US consumers will buy American cars. Regarding ‘Liberation Day’, as he calls it, which is Wednesday April 2nd, where he has previously promised to impose reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, he stated late on Sunday that ‘You’d start with all countries, so let’s see what happens’, which indicates he is in no hurry to back down. Although, as we all know, President Trump is unpredictable, so anything is still possible! So, at the start of a potentially pivotal week for the direction of the US 100 index moving forward into the start of Q2 its probably no surprise to see it probing lower levels again. The focus for traders is likely to remain on the scope and size of the tariffs President Trump imposes, whether there are any reprieves or reductions provided to certain countries, and the extent of retaliatory action taken by trading partners such as the EU. Concerns over the strength of the US economy also remain a hot topic for traders and in that regard, there is some tier 1 data to consider across the week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Tuesday 1500 BST), ISM Services PMI (Thursday 1500 GMT) and then the Non-farm Payrolls (Friday 1330 BST) update all have the potential to impact the direction of the US 100 index. Oh, and did I forget to mention that the week finishes with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell speaking at 1625 BST on Friday? It really is a week that has it all! Technical Update: 38% Retracement Support to Hold Again or Give Way? Perhaps with the benefit of hindsight, it wasn’t too much of a surprise that having seen the US 100 index trade to the March 11th low of 19113, a reactive recovery materialised. As the chart above shows, the decline was a 14% move within a 4-week period between February 18th to March 11th, although perhaps more importantly, it approached support at 19065, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of October 2023 to February 2025 strength. Traders will often focus on retracement levels within sharp phases of price activity, as potential support or resistance, from which reactive moves can be seen. It might be argued this was the case within the US 100 index. Interestingly, as impressive as the recovery from the March 11th low appeared, this was held and reversed by resistance at 20307, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of February to March weakness. See chart above. What Now? It would seem within the coming week, the first potential support to monitor on a closing basis is still the 19065 retracement, with 20307 continuing to represent possible resistance. While closing breaks of either of these levels won’t guarantee a significant price movement with much still dependent on the outcome of events across the week, a closing breakout may lead to a more extended price move in the direction of any break. Support: Closing breaks under the 19065 support might suggest resumption of recent declines, with risks possibly then emerging to test 18111, which is the deeper 50% retracement, may be even further if this is in turn breached. Resistance: If 20307 is broken to the upside on a closing basis, it may lead to a further retracement of the February to March weakness, with the 50% level standing at 20679, or even 21050, which is the higher 62% retracement. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Pepperstone
Precision Trading – How Our Trade Played Out PerfectlyIntroduction In trading, precision and patience are everything. We don’t chase trades—we wait for the perfect confluence of technical factors to align. This trade idea followed our systematic approach, utilizing ranges, Fibonacci levels, internal & inducement liquidity, break of structure (BOS), entry confirmation patterns, and harmonics. Here’s a breakdown of how it all unfolded. 1. Identifying the Range Before executing, we mapped out the market structure to establish a clear range. The price action showed a well-defined consolidation zone, which helped us anticipate liquidity grabs and potential reversal points. 2. Fibonacci Confluence – 78.20% Level Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we identified the 78.20% level as a strong reaction point. This aligned with other key technicals, increasing our confidence in the trade setup. 3. Internal & Inducement Liquidity Liquidity is key in trading. We spotted internal liquidity zones where price was likely to manipulate weak hands before the actual move. Inducement liquidity was also present, providing additional confirmation that price would tap into deeper levels before reversing. 4. Break of Structure (BOS) and Entry Confirmation Once BOS occurred in alignment with our anticipated liquidity grab, we looked for our **entry pattern**. The market printed a textbook confirmation, allowing us to enter with precision and minimal risk. 5. Harmonic Pattern for Additional Confluence The final piece of confirmation was a harmonic pattern, further validating our entry. These patterns, when combined with our overall strategy, add an extra layer of probability to our trades. Trade Outcome The execution was flawless! 🎯 The price respected our levels, moved in our favor, and hit our target zones with precision. This is the power of structured analysis and disciplined execution. 📉 Key Takeaway:Never trade blindly! Always have a solid confluence of technicals before taking a trade.** 🔎 What’s your go-to confirmation before entering a trade? Let’s discuss in the comments! 📩 #ForexTrader #ForexLifestyle #ForexSignals #DayTrading #TradingMindset #ForexMoney #PipsOnPips #ForexSuccess #ForexMotivation #MillionaireMindset #TradingStrategy #FXMarket #ForexWins #TradeSmart #MarketAnalysis #WealthBuilding #Investing #PriceAction #ChartAnalysis #Scalping #SwingTrading #FinancialFreedom #MakingMoneyMoves #HustleHard #NoDaysOff #MoneyMindset
FX:GER30Education
by Vusizwe_Capital
Stock Markets Decline Amid Trump Tariff NewsStock Markets Decline Amid Trump Tariff News Comparing the approximate difference between last week's opening and closing prices on stock index charts: ➝ The US S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) fell by 2.4%. ➝ The European Euro Stoxx 50 (Europe 50 on FXOpen) dropped by 2%. Why Are Stocks Falling? The bearish sentiment in stock markets is largely driven by news surrounding White House tariff policies, as reflected in Federal Reserve statements late last week: ➝ Boston Fed President Susan Collins stated that tariffs will "inevitably" fuel inflation, at least in the short term. ➝ Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin noted that rapid shifts in US trade policy have created uncertainty for businesses. US developments are also weighing on European stock markets, which were already under pressure following President Donald Trump’s announcement of a 25% tariff on foreign cars. Trump has also threatened further tariffs on the EU and Canada, heightening trade tensions. Today, the Euro Stoxx 50 index opened with a bearish gap, hitting its lowest level since early 2025, falling below the previous yearly low of 5,292. This reflects growing market concerns ahead of 2 April, when Trump is expected to confirm the implementation of new tariffs. Technical Analysis of the Euro Stoxx 50 Index (Europe 50 on FXOpen) Since late 2024, the price has been moving within an ascending channel (marked in blue), but today, it has fallen below the lower boundary—suggesting the channel is losing relevance. Bearish dominance is evident through the following signals: ➝ The 5,550 level proved to be an insurmountable resistance for bulls. ➝ The median of the blue channel acted as resistance (marked by a red arrow). ➝ The 5,406 level shifted from support to resistance (marked by black arrows). If the bearish trend persists, the Euro Stoxx 50 index (Europe 50 on FXOpen) could continue fluctuating within a descending channel (outlined in red). This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:ESX50
by FXOpen
1
DAX: CORRECTION OR NEW TREND?Analyzing the 60-minute chart, I believe there is still room for further downside in order to complete what I interpret as a five-wave structure within a larger corrective wave C, which itself forms part of a broader wave 4 of higher degree. This corrective phase appears to be unfolding within a clearly bullish long-term trend, as confirmed by the weekly chart, which remains well-aligned to the upside. 📉 Potential downside targets: 22,024 21,741 Once this corrective move is complete, I expect the uptrend to resume, potentially offering renewed long opportunities aligned with the prevailing weekly bullish structure.
CAPITALCOM:DE40
by COLOMBINI-TRADING
NASDAQ Bullish Reversal (Potential Tariff Resolution?) NASDAQ price action went through a massive correction with a drop from the top worth approx. 14%. However after the passing of the latest FOMC Meeting, we may finally see a direction towards the resolution of widespread tariff based uncertainty across the macro economic landscape. This presents us with a potential Reversal opportunity if we see the formation of a credible Higher High (given a potential proper break out) on the 4 HR and shorter timeframes. Trade Plan : Entry @ 20045 Stop Loss @ 19070 TP 0.9 - 1 @ 20923 - 21020
ICMARKETS:USTECLong
by LevelsBySBT
Precision Trading – How Our Trade Played Out PerfectlyIn trading, precision and patience are everything. We don’t chase trades—we wait for the perfect confluence of technical factors to align. This trade idea followed our systematic approach, utilizing ranges, Fibonacci levels, internal & inducement liquidity, break of structure (BOS), entry confirmation patterns, and harmonics. Here’s a breakdown of how it all unfolded. 1. Identifying the Range Before executing, we mapped out the market structure to establish a clear range. The price action showed a well-defined consolidation zone, which helped us anticipate liquidity grabs and potential reversal points. 2. Fibonacci Confluence – 38.20% Level Using the Fibonacci retracement tool, we identified the 38.20% level as a strong reaction point. This aligned with other key technicals, increasing our confidence in the trade setup. 3. Internal & Inducement Liquidity Liquidity is key in trading. We spotted internal liquidity zones where price was likely to manipulate weak hands before the actual move. Inducement liquidity was also present, providing additional confirmation that price would tap into deeper levels before reversing. 4. Break of Structure (BOS) and Entry Confirmation Once BOS occurred in alignment with our anticipated liquidity grab, we looked for our entry pattern. The market printed a textbook confirmation, allowing us to enter with precision and minimal risk. 5. Harmonic Pattern for Additional Confluence The final piece of confirmation was a harmonic pattern, further validating our entry. These patterns, when combined with our overall strategy, add an extra layer of probability to our trades. Trade Outcome The execution was flawless! 🎯 The price respected our levels, moved in our favor, and hit our target zones with precision. This is the power of structured analysis and disciplined execution. 📉 Key Takeaway: Never trade blindly! Always have a solid confluence of technicals before taking a trade. 🔎 What’s your go-to confirmation before entering a trade? Let’s discuss in the comments! 📩 #ForexTrader #ForexLifestyle #ForexSignals #DayTrading #TradingMindset #ForexMoney #PipsOnPips #ForexSuccess #ForexMotivation #MillionaireMindset #TradingStrategy #FXMarket #ForexWins #TradeSmart #MarketAnalysis #WealthBuilding #Investing #PriceAction #ChartAnalysis #Scalping #SwingTrading #FinancialFreedom #MakingMoneyMoves #HustleHard #NoDaysOff #MoneyMindset
FX:NAS100
by Vusizwe_Capital
Will the Fear Gauge Flash Red?The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street's closely watched "fear gauge," is poised for a potential surge due to US President Donald Trump's assertive policy agenda. This article examines the confluence of factors, primarily Trump's planned tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions, that are likely to inject significant uncertainty into the financial markets. Historically, the VIX has proven to be a reliable indicator of investor anxiety, spiking during economic and political instability periods. The current climate, marked by a potential trade war and heightened international risks, suggests a strong likelihood of increased market volatility and a corresponding rise in the VIX. President Trump's impending "Liberation Day" tariffs, set to target all countries with reciprocal duties, have already sparked considerable concern among economists and financial institutions. Experts at Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan predict that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation, slower economic growth, and an elevated risk of recession in the US. The sheer scale and breadth of these tariffs, affecting major trading partners and critical industries, create an environment of unpredictability that unsettles investors and compels them to seek protection against potential market downturns, a dynamic that typically drives the VIX upward. Adding to the market's unease are the growing geopolitical fault lines involving the US and both China and Iran. Trade disputes and strategic rivalry with China, coupled with President Trump's confrontational stance and threats of military action against Iran over its nuclear program, contribute significantly to global instability. These high-stakes international situations, fraught with the potential for escalation, naturally trigger investor anxiety and a flight to safety, further fueling expectations of increased market volatility as measured by the VIX. In conclusion, the combination of President Trump's aggressive trade policies and the mounting geopolitical risks presents a compelling case for a significant rise in the VIX. Market analysts have already observed this trend, and historical patterns during similar periods of uncertainty reinforce the expectation of heightened volatility. As investors grapple with the potential economic fallout from tariffs and the dangers of international conflicts, the VIX will likely serve as a crucial barometer, reflecting the increasing fear and uncertainty permeating the financial landscape.
CBOE:VIXLong
by UDIS_View
SPX: tariffs combined with inflationInflation expectations are on the rise again in the US. As markets are closely watching developments with trade tariffs, in combination with increasing inflation, the sentiment ended the week in a red zone. During the week, the S&P 500 was struggling to sustain a bit of positive sentiment, however, Friday's trading session brought back significant sell off of stocks. The week started at 5.780, but it ended at 5.580, losing 1,97% on Friday. In the last six weeks, the index spent five weeks in negative territory. Tech companies were the ones that dragged the rest of the market to the downside. META and Amazon were down by 4,3%, Apple dropped by 2,66%, Tesla lost 3,51% in value. Trade tariffs are still a cloud which brings high uncertainty to the market. News reported that both Canada and the European Union are considering reciprocal measures as a response to the imposed US tariffs. The US Administration announced last week potential 25% tariffs on all car imports to the US. As long as this kind of trade war is in the open space, it could not be expected that the market would consolidate and stabilize. In this sense, further high volatility might be expected. In the week ahead, the NFP and unemployment data for March will be posted, so this would be a day to watch.
SP:SPX
by XBTFX
Falling towards pullback support?S&P500 (US500) is falling towards the pivot which acts as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which is an overlap resistance. Pivot: 5,405.74 1st Support: 5,176.07 1st Resistance: 5,769.85 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
ICMARKETS:US500Long
by ICmarkets
1