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How to flip $2,000 into a million in a bubble. In this post I want to share with you an idea I've shared with my friends irl who have market exposure. Heading into the 2022 high I strongly encouraged my friends to sell stocks. We were heading into a multi decade resistance level and I'd put the odds somewhere around 80% there'd be a notable reaction to this level. Could be a pullback, could be a crash. If it's a pullback it's easy to get back in, not so easy to get out in a crash. So, no brainer. Late 2022 I started to tell them it was worth getting back in as long as they used good stop loss rules and then when we got to a 76% retracement of the 2022 drop I started to explain the concept I'll discuss in this post to them. First let's lay the groundwork for this. We can focus on the things we know. It's a known that indices have uptrended for a long time. And it's a known of trend development that trends do not get slower. A trend is always increasing in velocity. It goes up faster and faster and then when it comes down it comes down faster than it went up. This is always what happens. Trends speed up. Regardless of the direction. Now, in 2022 we hit a multiple decade resistance. This was evidenced by a local market top. Confirming the market also seems to care about this level. Whatever happens, this is likely to be a major pivot point in the trend. Either we'll top out here or well head into a stage of hyper overperformance. In this overperformance, we will likely see indices up 100% from the current highs. 200 - 300% is on the table, 100% is a number that would have high odds of hitting, based on historical breaks like this. And if the resistance is actionable, this could all come crashing down in a horrific way. If you accept these premises that the market is due to either crash up or crash down, then it makes no sense at all to have common stock exposure (Or whatever you prefer). If the long bet is wrong, you can take crippling losses and if the long bet is right you can make a lot more money betting on the hyper aggressive breakout. Around 4500 I started to tell my friends this. I told them if I was them I'd drop my stocks. Bank the profits on those and then I'd take 10 - 20% of what I'd made in profits and use these to buy a portfolio of aggressive OTM calls. My thinking here is if the market yanks, no big deal. SPX could drop 90% and my friends would take rather nominal losses. Giving back a fraction of what they made in the rally rather than seeing all their positions go from profits top negative. On the other side of the coin, if the breakout comes - they'd make a lot more on the calls than they'd make with common. Depending on aggression level, they'd make a crazy amount more. A rally similar to the Nasdaq breakout would translate as something like this on SPX. At this moment in time you can buy Jan 2027 calls for under $150. In the event this move happened, these would be worth min over $65,000. A bit under $75,000 if the move is completed faster and this is not even accounting for the potential of an IV boost if the market goes into hyper performance. $2,000 into a series of bets on that happening would return over a million in the event that it did actually happen. This is not without risk. The plan I proposed to my friends has one main risk and that is the market slowly continues to uptrend. Making good gains but not hitting the bubble conditions to make it realistic these deep OTMs actually trade (For context, the statistical probability of profit on these right now is 0.2% - something would have to change). In that scenario, they'd take some small losses on the call portfolio and they'd have missed out on whatever the gain of just owning the underlying asset would be. That's the potential cost of the bet. On the upside of that, my friends who had 10s or even 100s of thousands exposure to the bear move can covert this to a few grand risk and still make mega bank if the bubble thesis comes into play. If SPX hits the 100% move inside of 2 years, these calls pay somewhere around $25,000 per $130 risked. In the event this heads into a blow off event they start to get up to close to $100,000 on those positions. This is hyper high RR way to bet on a developing bubble. Ensure you do not have excessive losses in a crash and the price of this is basically you convert your bet into a bet that the market will not range. If the market ranges for a year or two, this idea suffers. I think this is the wise thing to do at this point if speculating in stocks. We're into a binary level in my opinion. A polarising decision will come in this area. The smart thing to do is to put a hard cap on risk exposure so all bearish tail events do not hurt you and have the potential to make 1,000s of % of profit in the event of a bullish tail event. I think the probability of a tail event in the coming years is high now. Rarely is the probability of a tail event high, but rarely do we test multiple decades of resistance in indices. There is so much that can be made or lost in a tail event, that it makes a lot of sense to think about how you can structure bets to survive or thrive in the different outcomes. If this proves to not be the end stages of a bubble, then I think it's only reasonable to assume we're actually somewhere in the middle of a bubble. Which means something exceptional is likely to come in the following years - whatever way this inflection point resolves itself. In my opinion, if you want to bet on continued up moves in indices, you might as well bet on a full fledged bubble. The odds of indices breaking resistance and slowly limping higher I consider super low. I think we reverse or we fly. I have my bets structured to benefit from either one.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by holeyprofit
1
My expectations for US30 at H4Hi Guys! We are at US30 H4, I do my trade at M1 or M5 but I wish to share my view point with you about it in H4, Hope it will be useful... We need to see how the price closes in the 4-hour time frame at point A. The first scenario: if it breaks the channel (Channel) with a powerful bearish candle, the possibility of continuing the bearish trend until reaching point B, which is the intersection of the three trend lines (T1, T2, T3) and the bottom of the bearish channel (CH) and also a beautiful number (around of 43000), is very high; There is a gap that the price is very willing to see, so in this scenario it is possible for the downtrend to continue for at least half of the gap. The second scenario: if the price touches the bottom of the channel (Channel) and makes weak Bullish or bearish candles in the 4-hour time frame, the possibility of the price returning to the upward trend is very high, in this scenario, the price is likely to complete its second movement size (leg2) and complete the project 3 collisions (1,2,3) move towards the beautiful number of 46,000 Both scenarios are beautiful scenarios that can be easily seen, it should be seen which scenario is not easily seen, the probability of its occurrence will be higher. Wishing you successful trading My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help. I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
TVC:DJI
by ali_kasma
U.S. Long Term Interest Rates at 8% ?U.S. 30 - Year Yield/Rates (TYX) could rise to 8% in 2025. TYX completed an Elliott five - wave Impulse pattern from March 2020 to October 2023. Subsequently there was a clear Elliott wave Single Zigzag into the September 2024 bottom. TYX could be in the early phase of Primary wave , if so it could reach 8% in 2025. Weekly RSI is in the neutral zone at only 58.19%. Price could rise significantly before reaching the overbought zone at 70.00%. Price has again pushed above Ichimoku cloud resistance. A decisive move above this zone implies a multi month rally. TYY could reach 8% sometime n 2025.
TVC:TYXLong
by markrivest
BANKNIFTY : Trading plan and levels for 16-Dec-2024Intro: Review of Previous Day’s Plan Yesterday’s chart depicted key levels for supply, resistance, and demand zones. The anticipated plan highlighted a sideways consolidation around the "Last Resistance for ATM" zone, followed by a bullish breakout near 53,700. As per the actual market movement, Bank Nifty tested the resistance at 53,700 but failed to sustain momentum, leading to a pullback towards the Opening Support Zone. This reaffirms the importance of respecting identified zones and acting on confirmation signals. Color Coding in the Chart: Yellow: Sideways trend Green: Bullish trend Red: Bearish trend Trading Plan for 16th December 2024 If Gap Up Opening (200+ points above previous close) A gap-up scenario would place Bank Nifty near the upper resistance zone (54,092 to 54,322). In such cases: Action Plan: Wait for the first 15-30 minutes to observe price stability. If an hourly candle closes above 54,322, initiate a long position with a target of 54,787 (supply zone). If prices show rejection from 54,322, expect a retracement towards the Opening Support Zone (53,700 to 53,540). Avoid chasing the gap-up blindly; confirm the breakout or reversal with volume and price action. If Flat Opening A flat opening would likely position Bank Nifty around the Opening Support/Resistance Zone (53,700 to 53,540). Action Plan: Monitor price action within this zone. A strong breakout above 53,700 can lead to bullish momentum, targeting 54,092 first and then 54,322. On the flip side, if Bank Nifty breaks below 53,540, a bearish trend may develop, pulling prices toward the Opening Support at 53,398 and potentially the Last Support for Intraday at 53,074. Be cautious and use tight stop losses, especially if volatility is high. If Gap Down Opening (200+ points below previous close) A gap-down opening may test the Last Support for Intraday (53,074). Action Plan: If Bank Nifty holds above 53,074, consider entering a long position with a target of 53,540 and 53,700. Look for bullish reversal candles at this level. If prices break below 53,074, a bearish trend could extend toward 52,700 and further to the Mitigated Demand Zone (52,484 to 52,311). Avoid entering counter-trend trades unless clear reversal signs are observed. Risk-averse traders should wait for price action confirmation to avoid false breakouts. Tips for Risk Management in Options Trading: Use defined stop losses to protect your capital, particularly on hourly candle closures beyond invalidation zones. Avoid over-leveraging and position your trades based on your risk tolerance. As a guideline, limit exposure to 2-3% of your total capital per trade. Focus on ATM or slightly ITM strike prices with adequate liquidity for intraday trades. Avoid OTM options during volatile conditions. Implement a time-based exit if the trade does not hit the target within a predefined period. Summary and Conclusion: Bank Nifty’s price movement today will likely hinge on the interaction with key zones like 53,700 (Opening Resistance) and 53,074 (Last Intraday Support). Use the first 30 minutes post-opening to observe stability, and act based on breakouts or reversals. Follow a disciplined approach and avoid emotional trading. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. The above plan is for educational purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTYLong
by LiveTradingBox
NIFTY : Trading Plan and levels for 16-Dec-2024Trading Plan for Nifty 16-Dec-2024 Intro: Yesterday's Plan vs Actual The chart uploaded for 15-Dec-2024 accurately depicted the market's movement. As anticipated, Nifty faced sharp recovery from mentioned zone after a sharp decline in prices. Monday’s plan builds on these insights, focusing on opening scenarios and trading strategies. Plan for Different Opening Scenarios Scenario 1: Gap-Up Opening (100+ Points Above 24,781) If Nifty opens significantly higher, near or above 25,053 : Expect resistance around 25,053 (marked red on the chart). Observe for rejection signals such as bearish candles or reduced buying momentum. Plan of Action: For aggressive traders: Initiate a short position with a target of 24,767 , placing a stop-loss above 25,100 on an hourly candle close basis. For conservative traders: Wait for a pullback toward the consolidation zone ( 24,653 - 24,767 ) for potential long positions, targeting a retest of 25,053 . Watch out for a decisive breakout above 25,053 , which can trigger further bullish momentum toward 25,335 . Scenario 2: Flat Opening (Near 24,781) If Nifty opens near the previous close: The consolidation zone ( 24,653 - 24,767 ) will act as a critical area. Plan of Action: Initiate long positions if Nifty sustains above 24,767 with targets of 25,053 . Place stop-loss below 24,653 . If Nifty slips below 24,653 , short positions can be considered with a target of 24,542 . Ensure a tight stop-loss above 24,653 . Pay attention to the price action in the yellow trend zone, as sideways movement could lead to traps. Scenario 3: Gap-Down Opening (100+ Points Below 24,781) If Nifty opens near 24,542 or lower: 24,542 is the opening support level (marked green on the chart). Observe for sharp recovery signs like bullish engulfing candles. Plan of Action: For bulls: Look for a recovery from 24,542 to target 24,653 with a stop-loss below 24,500 . If 24,542 breaks decisively, expect bearish momentum toward 24,217 . In this case, initiate shorts with a target of 24,217 and stop-loss above 24,542 . Risk Management Tips for Options Trading Avoid taking positions during the first 15-30 minutes of market opening to avoid false moves. For intraday options trading, use at-the-money or slightly in-the-money options to minimize time decay impact. Set a fixed risk percentage (e.g., 2-3% of your capital) per trade. Stick to it strictly. Avoid holding positions beyond your planned targets. Use trailing stop-losses to lock in profits during trending moves. Summary and Conclusion The key zones to watch today are: Support: 24,542 , 24,653 . Resistance: 25,053 , 25,335 . Green trend indicates bullish potential, yellow for sideways movement, and red for bearish scenarios. Adapt to price action at critical levels and prioritize proper risk management. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI-registered analyst. All views are for educational purposes only. Traders should conduct their own analysis or consult with their financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by LiveTradingBox
Momentum is slowing down for SPX500USDHi traders, Last week SPX500USD started a coorection down (wave 4). The momentum of this pair is slowing down and it looks like it is making an ending diagonal. So next week we could see price come into the lower Daily/ Weekly FVG and from there we could see another upmove. Trade idea: Wait for the correction down to finish into the FVG's and a change in orderflow to bullish. After that you could trade (short term) longs. If you want to see more from my analysis, please make sure to follow me, give a boost and respectful comment. This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my analysis. I do not provide trade signals. Don't be emotional, just trade! Eduwave
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by EduwaveTrading
The Bitcoin Dilemma.The Bitcoin Dilemma. Unlimited Upside Potential Since Bitcoin's price is largely driven by speculative growth capital flows, much like the S&P 500, it has the potential, over very long periods of time, for continual price increases. $100K, MIL:1M , $10M, even higher... Unlimited Downside Risk Unlike an index of stocks, which can rotate out underperforming companies, Bitcoin as a standalone asset cannot. S&P 500 in comprised of 11 sectors, where an underperforming sector can pick up the slack, as capitals rotate out of the leaders. Bitcoin cannot. If faith in Bitcoin wanes or it is outcompeted by newer technologies or regulatory changes, there is no mechanism to replace it or adapt its structure. This makes it susceptible to large drops in value if the market turns negative, with theoretically no bottom in sight. #bitcoin #spx #capitalflows With all that said, I am a chart trader. I will follow the trends, using proper risk and money management, no matter how compelling (or not) a narrative or story line is. Hope you enjoyed my thoughts on this delicate subject for some! Remember, there is always something we do not know, and accepting that is the 1st step to growing and learning.
SP:SPX
by Badcharts
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of Dec 13, 2024Technical Analysis and Outlook: During the trading session this week, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a consistent steady to a lower trajectory, progressing towards our newly established support target of 6034. There remains the potential for a further decline to the subsequent Outer Index Dip level at 5980. Conversely, a notable upside movement via the previously retested Key Res 6090 level is anticipated, which may facilitate a rally to the Outer Index Rally target of 6123; this development will likely pave the way for the next phase of the bullish trend.
SP:SPX
by TradeSelecter
BANKEX S/R for 16/12/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) : Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BSE:BANK
by zenthosh
SENSEX S/R for 16/12/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) : Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BSE:SENSEX
by zenthosh
MIDCAP NIFTY S/R for 16/12/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) : Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:NIFTY_MID_SELECT
by zenthosh
FINNIFTY S/R for 16/12/24Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) : Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:CNXFINANCE
by zenthosh