Market indices
Watch out for SPX500USDHi traders,
Last week SPX500USD made a gap lower but after the fill it went further up and broke the previous swing high (ATH). This could be the last wave 5 (orange) of wave 3 (red).
So next week we could see this pair go lower for a (big) correction down.
Let's see what the market does and react if it reaches the Daily bullish FVG's.
Trade idea: Wait for price come into the Daily bullish FVG's to trade longs again. At the moment price is too high to trade.
If you want to learn more about trading FVG's & liquidity sweeps with Wave analysis, then please make sure to follow me.
This shared post is only my point of view on what could be the next move in this pair based on my technical analysis.
Don't be emotional, just trade your plan!
Eduwave
NAS100 Breakout – Eyeing Bullish Extensions or False Break?The NAS100 (US100) is in full breakout mode on the daily, surging past previous highs near 22,140 with strong momentum. Price is now trading at ~22,550, decisively above prior resistance, which could now act as support if we retest.
🔎 Multi-Timeframe Breakdown:
✅ Daily Chart:
• Massive bullish structure intact.
• Clean breakout above horizontal resistance at 22,140.
• Price riding an aggressive ascending trendline — watching for sustained closes above breakout level.
✅ 4H Chart:
• Higher lows and bullish impulsive candles confirm buyers in control.
• Multiple support zones below (22,300, 22,100) for potential retests.
• Key short-term resistance formed near 22,650 — a rejection here could trigger correction.
✅ 1H & 23m Charts:
• Micro pullback seen after tagging fresh highs; price still holding above short-term trendlines.
• Consolidation zone between 22,500–22,600 could be decisive for next move.
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📌 Key Zones to Watch:
• Support: 22,300 / 22,140
• Resistance: 22,650 / 22,800
• A breakout retest could confirm continuation; otherwise, failure to hold support might signal a fakeout.
⸻
📈 Bias: Bullish (Long)
While momentum remains strong, be prepared for potential sharp corrections given overextension.
⸻
What do you think? Drop your thoughts below! 🚀👇
NI225: Move Down Expected! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse NI225 together☺️
The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 40,150.79 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 39,753.50..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
US30 DETAIL ANALYSIS
1. Fundamental Analysis
The US30, tracking 30 of the largest publicly traded companies in the U.S., currently reflects a mixed but cautiously optimistic macroeconomic backdrop.
Economic Growth Outlook
The U.S. economy contracted by 0.5% annualized in Q1 2025, revised down from initial estimates. The contraction was largely driven by a surge in imports before new tariffs took effect, which distorted net exports. As a result, the Federal Reserve revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast to approximately 1.4%—a downgrade from the previous 1.7% projection. Private-sector forecasts, including those from Deloitte and S&P Global, echo this view, suggesting a growth range between 1.1% and 1.5% for the year.
Inflation & Federal Reserve Policy
Core PCE inflation—the Fed’s preferred metric—rose to 2.7% year-over-year in May, above the central bank's 2% target. Similarly, core CPI held at 2.8%. While inflation is cooling compared to previous cycles, it remains sticky. Consequently, the Fed has signaled no immediate plans to cut rates, with the earliest possibility being in September. Inflation expectations for year-end 2025 have been revised up to around 3%, in part due to geopolitical shocks and new tariffs.
Labor Market & Consumption Trends
The unemployment rate remains stable near 4.2%, reflecting labor market resilience. However, real disposable income and consumer spending both declined in May, down 0.3% and 0.7%, respectively. The drop indicates potential weakening in consumer demand and future GDP prints. Confidence indices also showed a dip, although a decline in inflation expectations could moderate the downside pressure.
Tariff Effects and Global Risk
Average U.S. tariff levels are at historic highs, ranging between 15–19%, weighing on import costs and corporate margins. The ongoing trade frictions with China, coupled with Middle East tensions (particularly between Israel and Iran), add geopolitical volatility and inflationary risks. Leading institutions warn of stagflation—a toxic mix of slow growth and persistent inflation—pressuring equity valuations.
2. Commitment of Traders (COT) Report Evaluation
The latest COT data reflects a nuanced view of institutional behavior in equity index futures:
Asset Managers have increased net long exposure to US indices, including the Dow, suggesting underlying bullish conviction from long-term holders.
Leveraged Funds (Hedge Funds) have shown mixed sentiment—reducing short positions, but not aggressively adding longs—indicating a cautious optimism.
Retail Traders are predominantly short , which often signals further upside potential due to their tendency to be positioned against the dominant trend.
This asymmetric positioning—combined with macro and structural tailwinds—strengthens the smart money bias toward continuation of the bullish trend, especially as the Dow approaches key technical levels.
3. Technical & SMC-Based Analysis
The daily US30 chart reflects a clear bullish structure, rooted in classic Smart Money Concepts:
Market Structure
A Valid Break of Structure (BOS) confirms upside intent, following a successful sweep of internal liquidity.
The sequence of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL) remains intact.
Internal Liquidity has been swept, with price now targeting external liquidity near the All-Time High (ATH) zone.
Key Technical Levels
Buying Area 1: Around 43,150 – labeled as the H4 inducement zone. A retest here with bullish price action (engulfing or FVG fill) may trigger continuation long entries.
Buying Area 2: Between 42,450–42,650 – a deeper demand zone where price previously showed strong displacement. A high-probability re-entry zone upon confirmation.
Short-Term Sell Area: Around 44,800 – this zone aligns with potential distribution. Short positions should only be considered here upon confirmation of bearish BOS.
ATH & BSL: The final liquidity target in the current structure, marking the range highs.
Liquidity Pools
Sell-Side Liquidity (SSL): Around 41,800, and a Strong Low exists near 40,900 – both are key areas to be respected in the bullish thesis.
Price is currently aiming toward external BSL above ATH, which is likely to be swept before any significant correction.
4. Strategic Outlook & Trade Plan
✅ Bullish Continuation Scenario
Buy Entry #1: 43,150 zone – confirmation through bullish PA on retest.
Buy Entry #2: 42,450–42,650 – deeper re-entry upon mitigation of FVG or OB.
Take Profit Targets:
TP1: 44,800 (potential distribution zone),
TP2: 45,200 (external BSL at ATH).
Stop Loss: Below 42,200 (under Demand Area 2 or SSL).
⚠️ Bearish Contingency (Only if BOS to Downside)
Monitor for failed structure or strong rejection at 44,800–45,200.
BOS below 43,000 could shift structure and signal a move toward the 42,200 zone.
Break of Strong Low (~40,900) invalidates bullish structure.
Conclusion
The current market environment supports a measured bullish bias in the US30, driven by:
Resilient labor and inflation expectations moderating;
Institutional accumulation per COT data;
A technically clean smart money bullish structure;
Potential for liquidity sweep above ATH before any significant distribution.
That said, macro risks such as tariffs, global geopolitical tensions, and sticky inflation remain key wildcards that could introduce volatility.
NOTE: ONLY FOR EDUCATIONAL PURPOSE NOT A FINANCIAL ADVICE
Medium to long term targets for Nifty. We have used parallel channel and Fibonacci retracement on Nifty weekly chart to gauge medium to long term targets for Nifty.
The Fibonacci retracement points out that the support for Nifty will remain at 25233(Fibonacci Support and mid channel support), 23903 (Important Fibonacci support), 23774 (Important Mother line support or 50 weeks EMA, channel bottom support). Nifty can go below these levels only in situation of another major global event or some major local event. If we get a closing below 23774 the Bear will be in commanding situation and will have the power to take Nifty further down towards 21743 which was the recent low we reached during Indo-Pak conflict.
The resistances for Nifty now are at 26277 (Major Resistance, Previous All Time high of Nifty), The next leap of faith for Nifty can be towards 27665 after we get a closing above 26277. (This will be a major hurdle and in next 1 year or so it is highly unlikely that we will cross this level unless we hit a euphoria zone.) This zone is also the current channel top zone. In very unlikely circumstance of Nifty crossing 27665 the next target for Nifty will be at 29539. (This looks possible in 18 to 24 months). We will be very lucky to reach this zone earlier. You never say never in the market.
As of now the local factors remain optimistic but there is a concern by experts related to valuation of market. As the Nifty PE currently is around 23. The results in the next couple of quarters will determine if Bull market stays active.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
The HK50 Robbery: Can You Grab the Cash Before the Cops Arrive?🚨 HK50 "Hong Kong 50" HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot & Trap Escape Plan! 🚨
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re plotting the ultimate heist on the HK50 "Hong Kong" Index Market Cash market! Our master plan focuses on a long entry—targeting the high-risk ATR Zone (overbought, consolidation, potential reversal). Beware: Bears are lurking, and traps are set! 🏆💸 Book profits fast, stay wealthy, and trade safe! 💪🎉
🔓 ENTRY: The Vault Is Open – Swipe the Bullish Loot!
Buy Limit Orders: Place within 15-30min (recent swing low/high).
Alert Recommended! Don’t miss the heist.
🛑 STOP LOSS: Escape Route
Set near the latest swing low or below 4H MA (~23500.00).
Adjust based on risk, lot size, and multiple orders.
🎯 TARGET: 24700.00 (or Run Before It Hits!)
Scalpers: Only long-side plays! Use trailing SL to lock profits.
Swing Traders: Execute the robbery plan patiently.
📡 MARKET INTEL: Why HK50 "Hong Kong" Index Market is a Bullish Target
Fundamental Drivers: Macro trends, COT data, geopolitics, sentiment.
Intermarket & Index-Specific Factors in play.
👉 For full analysis, check the linkss below! 🔗🔗
⚠️ TRADING ALERTS: News & Position Safety
Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
Trailing SL is a MUST to protect profits.
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"CHINA50 Money Heist: Will You Join the Gang or Get Robbed?"🚨 CHINA50 HEIST ALERT: Bullish Loot & Trap Escape Plan! 🚨
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Based on 🔥Thief Trading Style🔥 (technical + fundamental analysis), we’re plotting the ultimate heist on the CHINA50 Index Cash market! Our master plan focuses on a long entry—targeting the high-risk Red Zone (overbought, consolidation, potential reversal). Beware: Bears are lurking, and traps are set! 🏆💸 Book profits fast, stay wealthy, and trade safe! 💪🎉
🔓 ENTRY: The Vault Is Open – Swipe the Bullish Loot!
Buy Limit Orders: Place within 15-30min (recent swing low/high).
Alert Recommended! Don’t miss the heist.
🛑 STOP LOSS: Escape Route
Set near the latest swing low or below 4H MA (~13150.00).
Adjust based on risk, lot size, and multiple orders.
🎯 TARGET: 13840.00 (or Run Before It Hits!)
Scalpers: Only long-side plays! Use trailing SL to lock profits.
Swing Traders: Execute the robbery plan patiently.
📡 MARKET INTEL: Why CHINA50 is a Bullish Target
Fundamental Drivers: Macro trends, COT data, geopolitics, sentiment.
Intermarket & Index-Specific Factors in play.
👉 For full analysis, check the linkss below! 🔗🔗
⚠️ TRADING ALERTS: News & Position Safety
Avoid new trades during high-impact news.
Trailing SL is a MUST to protect profits.
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DXY BANK VAULT BREAK-IN: Your Dollar Index Profit Blueprint🚨 DXY BANK HEIST: Dollar Index Breakout Robbery Plan (Long Setup) 🚨
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📈 ENTRY: BREAKOUT OR GET LEFT BEHIND!
Wait for DXY to cross 99.300 → Then strike hard!
Buy Stop Orders: Place above Moving Average.
Buy Limit Orders: Sneak in on 15M/30M pullbacks (swing lows/highs).
Pro Tip: Set a BREAKOUT ALARM—don’t miss the heist!
🛑 STOP LOSS: DON’T GET LOCKED UP!
For Buy Stop Orders: Never set SL before breakout—amateurs get caught!
Thief’s Safe Spot: Nearest swing low (2H chart).
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🏴☠️ TARGET: 102.300 (Bank Vault Cracked!)
Scalpers: Long only! Trail your SL like a pro thief.
Swing Traders: Ride this heist for maximum payout.
💵 MARKET CONTEXT: DXY IS BULLISH (But Traps Await!)
Fundamentals: COT Reports, Fed Plays, Geopolitics.
Intermarket Sentiment: Bonds, Gold, Stocks—all connected.
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Nifty 50 Hourly Chart Update 📊 Nifty 50 Hourly Chart Update 📊
Nifty’s leap hits 25,600 🚀
But signs of a short-term pause are showing up… ⚠️
🔹 RSI at 75 🔼
🔹 ATR dropping 📉
🔹 Price at Pitchfork & Gann Square resistance 🎯
📉 A mild reversal may be on the cards before the next move.
⏳ A better entry opportunity might come in the next few days. Stay patient, stay sharp! ⚔️📅
Nifty July 1st Week Analysis Nifty is looking positive for the week ahead, and we can expect momentum to continue up to 26000-26148 levels.The Important level to watch for upside would be 25750-800, and if Nifty breaches downside support of 25550, then we can expect a small retracement up to 25200-300 on the downside.
All levels are marked in the chart posted.
S&P 500 Daily Chart Analysis For Week of June 27, 2025Technical Analysis and Outlook:
During the current trading week, the S&P 500 Index has predominantly demonstrated an upward trajectory, surpassing the Mean Resistance level of 6046, the Outer Index Rally target of 6073, and the critical Key Resistance threshold of 6150. Currently, the index is exhibiting a bullish trend, indicating potential movement towards the Outer Index Rally objective of 6235. However, it is essential to note that there is a substantial probability that prices may retract from their current levels to test the Mean Support at 6136 before experiencing a resurgence.
Nifty Auto Index – Breakout Watch with Bullish MomentumNifty Auto Index—Breakout Watch with Bullish Momentum
Timeframe: Daily
Current Price: ₹24,007.95
Trend: Consolidation Breakout / Bullish Setup
🔍 Technical Highlights:
Consolidation Zone: Price has remained in a tight sideways range for the past 5 weeks (~₹23,000–₹24,000), indicating accumulation.
Breakout Attempt: Price is currently testing the upper band of this consolidation box (as seen in the green highlighted zone).
Support Zone: Strong support from both PEMA Bands and Developing Weekly/Monthly CPR (₹23,670–₹23,837).
📌 Trade Idea:
Trade Type: Positional Swing Long
Entry: On daily close above ₹24,050 with volume confirmation
Targets:
T1: ₹24,345
T2: ₹25,343
Stop Loss: ₹23,670 (below Monthly CPR and PEMA support)
⚠️ Risk Management Notes:
Risk-to-reward is favorable if entered near breakout with SL below the CPR zone.
Monitor for any rejection at weekly/monthly H3 zones for partial booking.
Avoid fresh longs if the index fails to hold above ₹24,000 by the end of the week.
The Nifty Auto Index shows strong signs of bullish momentum as it attempts to break out of a 5-week range, supported by PEMA and Camarilla levels. A close above ₹24,050 may initiate a new swing leg toward ₹25,000+.
USNAS100 |Bullish Trend Holds Above Pivot – Eyeing 22790 & 23000USNAS100 | Bullish Movement
The price has stabilized above the key pivot level at 22640, confirming a continuation of the bullish trend toward the next resistance at 22790.
As long as the index remains above 22640, the uptrend is expected to extend toward 22790 and potentially 23000, with minor pullbacks likely to retest the pivot.
Currently, USNAS100 is consolidating between 22640 and 22790.
A 1H candle close below 22640 would signal a bearish correction toward 22520 and possibly 22410.
Pivot Line: 22640
Resistance Levels: 22790, 23000
Support Levels: 22520, 22410
previous idea:
NAS100 Will Go Up From Support! Buy!
Please, check our technical outlook for NAS100.
Time Frame: 9h
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a key horizontal level 21,651.9.
Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 22,171.9.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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