Market Breadth Flashes Warning, but S&P 500 Still Holds SteadyThe S&P 500 continues its slightly positive movement. However, the momentum has been slowing, forming a long, wedge-like pattern. These long wedges have been a recurring feature in the stock market for years. From the monthly timeframe to the 1-hour chart, the market often forms wedges.
Wedge formations tend to break to the downside but can persist for a long time before doing so. The S&P 500 typically makes a sharp correction selloff, then recovers in a "V" shape, followed by the formation of another wedge. This pattern appears to be repeating once again. Still, there are some negative signals that traders should be aware of:
1- The impact of tariffs on growth remains a major unknown. Most tariff deals have not been finalized yet. While the Japan agreement is a positive step, negotiations with the EU will be more significant.
2- Many earnings reports will be released in the coming weeks, potentially shaping market sentiment. These earnings will reflect some of the tariff effects. AI and tech remain the key market drivers, so their results will be especially important.
3- Some breadth indicators are showing early warning signs. One of the most useful is the "percentage of stocks above the 200-day moving average." This metric shows whether the market is broadly participating in the rally or being driven by a few large-cap names. Typically, when the market weakens, traders rotate into mega caps. The rounded numbers below shows the weakness:
March 2024 Top: 5250 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 85%
July 2024 Top: 5675 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 80%
December 2024 Top: 6100 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 74%
July 2025 Current: 6309 - Percantege Above 200 MA: 66%
This shows that fewer and fewer stocks are managing to stay above their 200-day moving average while S&P making new highs. This is not an immediate red flag, but the weakening is apparent.
In summary, the slightly positive outlook remains intact for now and is expected to continue until the wedge breaks with some early warning signs. If that happens, a sharp selloff may follow, creating both selling and buying opportunities. In the short term, 6280 is the immediate support level to watch.
Market indices
Nasdaq Index (US100 / NASDAQ):The Nasdaq index continues to move in a medium- to long-term uptrend, recently testing the 23,000 support zone and bouncing upward.
🔹 Bearish Scenario:
If the price breaks and closes below 23,000, it may lead to a decline toward 22,920, followed by a deeper move toward 22,650.
🔹 Bullish Scenario:
If the price holds above 23,200, further upside toward a new high around 23,400 is likely.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always monitor the markets and perform your own due diligence before making any investment decisions.
Weekly Buy Plan – TASI📈 Weekly Buy Plan – TASI
Context:
Price has made a deep pullback into a higher timeframe discount zone (highlighted in blue).
A sweep of 2024 low has occurred — clearing out liquidity and triggering a potential reversal.
After the sweep, price showed strong rejection and formed a Weekly Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG).
A valid bullish Dealing Range has now formed on the weekly timeframe, indicating a strong bullish intent.
🔍 Trade Plan Details (Weekly Dealing Range Confirmation)
✅ 1. Attacking HTF POI
Price reacted from a weekly demand zone (marked in blue), aligned with a swing low from 2024.
✅ 2. Bearish FVG Formed
Before the reversal, price created a short-term bearish FVG — likely trapping sellers.
✅ 3. Bullish FVG Formed
A fresh bullish weekly FVG formed after the rejection from demand zone.
✅ 4. Closed Above Red Candle Series
Price closed above a cluster of bearish candles, showing momentum shift to the upside.
✅ 5. Breaker Block (Support Confirmed)
Previous structure resistance now acts as support, confirming the valid bullish dealing range.
🎯 Target Plan (Context Target)
As per your trade plan, the external swing high at 12,879 (2024 High) is the primary target — aligning with the bullish dealing range.
USD Weakness Ahead (3-Month Outlook)EUR/USD: Breaking 1.0850, next target 1.1000
GBP/USD: Cleared 1.2750, heading toward 1.2950
AUD/USD: Rebounded from 0.6650, potential 0.6850
NZD/USD: Above 0.6150, could reach 0.6300
Key Drivers:
1. Fed likely cutting rates before ECB/BoE/RBNZ
2. Commodity recovery (helps AUD/NZD)
3. Political risks weighing on USD
Market Mood:
- Traders reducing long USD positions
- AUD/NZD shorts getting squeezed
Risks:
US inflation surprises upside
Geopolitical shocks boost USD safe-haven demand
Sasha Charkhchian
uk100 crazy pump - time to SHORTTeam, those who SHORT UK100, make sure stop loss at 9175
Target 1 at 9135-32
Target 2 at 9109-16
Last few months, UK100 has been aggressively cutting rate due to expose in recession. But now they are out of the wood.
The market has been over pricing and over value.
We expect the market to come down.
Nifty levels - July 25, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
DAX40 Bullish breakout retest support at 24205The DAX remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 24205 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 24205 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
24655 – initial resistance
24780 – psychological and structural level
25064 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 24205 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
24100 – minor support
23921 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the DAX40 holds above 24205. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
US30 Technical Breakdown – 07/24/2025📍 US30 Technical Breakdown – 07/24/2025
🔥 New highs achieved — bulls pushed straight through the 44,867 ceiling and tagged 45,082 before pulling back slightly. This is a key psychological level, and price is now consolidating just below.
We’ve officially shifted into breakout territory. Momentum is strong, and EMAs are fully bullish. But after such a run, we may be due for a retest or short-term correction. Let’s break it down 👇
📊 Current Market Structure:
✅ Series of higher highs & higher lows
✅ EMA 9 > EMA 21 > Price (bullish structure)
✅ Breakout from range: 44,867 → 45,082
🧱 Minor resistance at 45,050–45,082
⚠️ Watch for pullback to 44,750–44,800 zone
🔑 Key Levels:
🔼 Resistance:
45,050 → 45,082 (fresh supply zone)
45,200+ (blue sky if broken)
🔽 Support:
44,867 (former resistance turned support)
44,734 (EMA confluence)
44,450–44,600 (demand zone)
🧠 Market Bias:
📈 Still bullish, but extended.
Above 44,867 = continuation zone
Below 44,734 = momentum shift likely
Rejection at 45,082 could give scalpers a play short 🔄
💡 Potential Trade Setups:
📈 Breakout Buy (Momentum Entry):
Entry: Above 45,100
TP1: 45,200
TP2: 45,300
SL: Below 45,040
CHINA: Catch-Up Potential Remains AttractiveAs the U.S. stock market trades at all-time highs and has returned to its valuation levels of late 2021 (before the 2022 bear market), it may be wise to look at the Chinese stock market as a way to diversify your portfolio.
Regarding the analysis and potential of the S&P 500 Index, I encourage you to read my latest forward-looking study by clicking on the image below. Don’t forget to subscribe to our Swissquote account to be notified every morning when our new daily market analysis is published.
Let’s now turn back to the Chinese stock market. I believe Chinese equities still offer medium to long-term upside potential, both technically and fundamentally.
1) Strong catch-up potential from a fundamental valuation perspective
The Chinese stock market presents an interesting diversification opportunity from a valuation standpoint, with a Shiller PE ratio (CAPE) of 15 compared to 36 for the S&P 500.
Chinese equities are significantly cheaper than U.S. equities and also benefit from an ultra-accommodative monetary policy from the People's Bank of China and an expansionary fiscal policy by the Chinese government. These are key fundamental factors that support strong upside potential for Chinese equities.
2) From a technical standpoint, the ATH is the natural target for Chinese indices
Focusing on the technical analysis of the Shenzhen Composite Index (weekly chart), the setup is clear: a trading range between support at 7,500 points and resistance at 16,000 points. The market has recently built a bullish reversal pattern at the lower bound, making the upper range the natural technical target.
3) Yuan strengthening in Forex is a positive signal for Chinese equities
Finally, one more factor supports Chinese equities from a diversification angle: currency effect. The Yuan Renminbi is technically strengthening, and the USD/CNY pair has just rejected long-term resistance. As a result, international investors could benefit from a stronger CNY in the coming months.
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#Banknifty directions and levels for July 24Current View:
The current view suggests that, as mentioned above,
if the gap-up sustains, we can expect a rally continuation with some consolidation.
In this case, the parameters are showing slight strength,
so the rejection zone may act just around the minor resistance.
Alternate View:
The alternate view suggests that
if the gap-up does not sustain or if the market rejects near immediate resistance with a solid reversal,
then we can expect a minor correction of around 23% to 38%.
However, unless the market breaks below the 38% level,
we cannot confirm a reversal into a bearish trend.
Banknifty levels - Jul 25, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
DXY – The Trap Is Set. The Drop Is Coming.Wave structure complete.
Retail thinks we’re going up. I know where it’s really going.
This is GreenFire Execution, not prediction.
🧠 Final liquidity hunt possibly toward 98.76 or even 101.40, then lights out.
Targeting the big liquidity pocket at 95.215
That’s where legends buy while the crowd panics.
📐 Elliott Wave | Wedge Mastery | Market Psychology
If you understand this chart — you don’t need signals. You need silence and execution.
#DXYSetup | #Wave5Ready | #SmartMoney | #ForexMillionaire | #TradingViewElite
#Nifty directions and levels for July 23rd:Good morning, friends! 🌞
Here are the market directions and levels for July 23rd:
The global market shows no major changes and continues to maintain a moderately bearish sentiment.
Meanwhile, the local market is exhibiting a moderately bullish tone. Today, Gift Nifty indicates a gap-up opening of around 60 points.
What can we expect today?
In the previous session, both Nifty and Bank Nifty couldn't sustain the gap-up start. Structurally, we are still in an unclear zone.
However, my expectation is that today’s market may take some consolidation after the gap-up start.
Looking at the chart, the current view suggests:
* If the market sustains the gap-up and breaks the immediate resistance, we can expect the pullback to continue with a moderately bullish tone.
Alternate view:
* If the gap-up doesn’t sustain and the market declines initially, it may reach the immediate support level.
* If a pullback happens from there, we can expect a range-bound market.
* Conversely, if the support breaks, the correction is likely to continue.
#BankNifty directions and levels for July 23rd:Looking at the chart, the current view suggests:
* If the market sustains the gap-up and breaks the immediate resistance, we can expect the pullback to continue with a moderately bullish tone.
Alternate view:
* If the gap-up doesn’t sustain and the market declines initially, it may reach the immediate support level.
* If a pullback happens from there, we can expect a range-bound market.
* Conversely, if the support breaks, the correction is likely to continue.
The Kiss of Death Trade & Other Reasons for EntryFollowing up on the 2618 opportunity that we looked at on the FOREXCOM:GER40 this past weekend the market has now created more potential trading opportunities to get involved.
1) A bullish bat pattern that has completed due to a result of a complex pullback into the original double bottom.
2) A potential Kiss of Death trading opportunity
3) A bigger potential bullish gartley pattern IF the current 2618 opportunity is violated.
Please leave any questions or comments below & feel free to share your opinion on the setup.
Akil
Japan 225: Breakout Watch as Tariff Cut Fuels RallyThe Japan 225 contract is ripping higher today on a trade deal being reached between the U.S. and Japan, including the apparent lowering of auto tariffs to 15%.
The price has already bounced strongly from uptrend support established in May, putting a potential retest of the June 30 high of 40854 on the cards. With momentum indicators perking up—pointing to building bullish momentum—the case for a topside break is improving.
If the price can break and hold above the June 30 high, watch for a potential run towards 41000—a level that saw plenty of action back in 2024. It looms as a decent level to build setups around.
If the price breaks and holds above 41000, consider establishing longs with a tight stop beneath the level for protection. 41600 and 42480 screen as potential targets, depending on desired risk-reward.
While the setup could be flipped if the price stalls beneath 41000, just how much downside would be forthcoming given the current mood is questionable.
Good luck!
DS
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.00
1st Support: 96.48
1st Resistance: 97.77
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