WALLSTREE 30, DOW JONES Forecast December - JanuaryWe've been pushing price higher in the dow, now we might be wrapping up Sell side before racking up more Buy side.
Market indices
NIFTY S/R for 16/12/24Support and Resistance Levels:
Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline.
Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down.
Breakouts:
Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold.
Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying.
MA Ribbon (EMA 20, EMA 50, EMA 100, EMA 200) :
Above EMA: If the stock price is above the EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum.
Below EMA: If the stock price is below the EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum.
Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set.
Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward.
Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop.
Disclaimer:
I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
DXY POTENTIAL BUY OPPORTUNITY!DXY (US dollar index) May continue to wax stronger! From the technical standpoint, we can see how price formed a double button and successfully broke the neckline. This is an insight that buyers are likely to dominate the market and trade a new high! Coming week we anticipate retail sales report and Fed rate cuts. It’s good we stay informed and plan accordingly for the week!
Nasdaq may retrace to support/trendline, before it continues itsNasdaq may retrace to support/trendline, before it continues its uptrend.
4.23 Breakouts in Bubbles. In 2022 SPX hit the 4.23 extension of the 2008 crash and went into about a year long bear move.
Now we're trading back above that and around where I'd think max reasonable tolerance for a 4.23 false breakout would be.
Major 4.23 breakouts are historically exceptional events. In this post I'll show you examples of what happened on breaks of them.
Let's first look at the evidence for these fibs having been useful before for the SPX rally. We'll look and see if they have reactions that would seem "Beyond chance" and if they do, then it's reasonable to think the 4.23 decision will be important too, right? And if not, then no. But obviously we'd not have a post if not.
Quite useful. Not perfect, certainly very useful. Being aware of big decisions at or around these levels helped a lot.
The 4.23 reaction here was very shallow. 4.23's are prone to much deeper corrections and this would be a big risk if we're inside of a false breakout of the 4.23. But if we're actually breaking it, something wild usually happens above the 4.23.
Here's the fibs from the Black Monday move.
The breakout above it would go on to be known as the dotcom and housing bubbles and the GFC crash would end on the 4.23 retest.
Interesting, right?
That was around 1996 and that happened to be the same time Nasdaq broke the 4.23.
This happened after the Nasdaq break.
A headliner stock of the Nasdaq bubble was CSCO. That had a couple big reactions to fibs on the way up and broke the 4.23.
And this happened.
Remember that time GME went up 100% in a day?
That was on the 4.23 break.
Then it hyper boomed and mean reverted. As with the other examples.
This is a fun one. It's off topic on the bull stuff but we'll be quick. Remember that time some oil contracts negative?
4.23 breaks usually look something like this.
The red trend feeling extremely strong at the time but being tame relative to the blue trend.
This part of the move will have some crash pullbacks in it but feature exceptional bullish engulfing candles.
All of that stuff almost invariably ends up in a bust, but it's a lot of fun at the time.
SPX × US10Y: A Signal for Market Tops and Economic Shifts1. Combining Equity Levels and Yield Sensitivity
SPX (S&P 500) reflects equity market strength and investor sentiment. When SPX is rising, it typically indicates optimism or strong earnings growth expectations.
US10Y (10-year Treasury yield) reflects the cost of capital and inflation expectations. Rising yields can signify tightening financial conditions or economic overheating.
When you multiply these two metrics, the product magnifies the impact of simultaneous market exuberance (high SPX) and rising yields (high US10Y). A very high SPX × US10Y value could indicate a market environment where valuations are stretched, and higher yields are increasing the cost of capital—often a precursor to market corrections.
2. Historical Patterns
In prior market tops, both equity valuations (SPX) and yields (US10Y) often peak together before significant corrections:
Dot-Com Bubble (2000): SPX was highly elevated, and rising yields signaled an end to loose monetary conditions.
2007-2008 Financial Crisis: SPX was at record highs, and US10Y yields were climbing, reflecting tighter monetary policy.
2021-2022 Post-Pandemic: SPX hit record highs, and yields started to rise sharply as inflation surged, leading to a market correction.
The SPX × US10Y value tends to peak during these moments, providing a warning signal of market excess.
If you are using the SPX × US10Y (multiplication) instead of division, it can still serve as a market indicator, though the mechanics are slightly different. Here’s why the product of the S&P 500 and the 10-year Treasury yield (SPX × US10Y) might be relevant for predicting market tops:
3. Economic Logic Behind the Indicator
A. Reflects Cost of Capital
Rising US10Y yields increase the discount rate used to value stocks. High SPX × US10Y suggests equities are vulnerable to revaluation if yields continue to rise.
B. Overheating Economy
High SPX × US10Y often coincides with an overheating economy, where inflation pressures push yields higher, while equities are driven by optimism. This imbalance can quickly reverse if monetary tightening occurs.
C. Peak Growth Phase
A peak in the SPX × US10Y value might signal the economy is at the late stage of the business cycle, where growth slows, and equities face headwinds.
4. Why It May Predict Market Tops
Valuation Excess: A high SPX × US10Y product reflects elevated valuations combined with tightening financial conditions.
Transition to Risk-Off Environment: Rising yields make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, potentially triggering equity outflows.
Fed Policy Influence: If yields are rising due to Federal Reserve tightening, equity markets often react negatively as borrowing costs rise and liquidity is withdrawn.
Buyside liquidity needed For long term short ahead. 12/13-12/20i am looking for Sellside imbalance buy side inefficiency to get tapped into and a market structure shift for a Swing trade on dxy/usd pairs - if it doesn't give me a market structure shift and a reaction then i will wait for the buyside liquidity to be breached and to be patient. There will definitely be a scalp coming into Monday NY session.
I am going to be patient and wait i will be using stop losses and wait to see how this plays out for swinging. i think it would help you guys to see my scalps because im only scalping for 15pips no more than 30pips at most
if i do get a scalp i will show and post win or loss transparency is a huge thing right now
Possible Start of a pullback.Daily chart Nasdaq STILL show bullish momentum however the 1hr and smaller timeframes on friday show lower high and lower low. will this be the start of a correction?
US 30 Stuck at a support line around 43794 at Market Close. US30 has been resting on the support line at 43794 for the last 7 hours. We are currently in 2 shorts and hoping price breaks down past this support level to the second support below at 43360. If price does break the current support it will likely head down there to return in a week or two. Based on what's happening with the individual companies represented by the Dow Jones the sentiment is that US30 will continue to fall for now.
Take shorts as long as the market allows you to, but be mindful and prepared for a consolidation or market manipulation. Keep your risk low and follow the trend.
Let me know your thoughts!
Daily Market UpdateFriday 13 December 2024
Gift Nifty was showing a 100 points gap down opening for the index. Nifty opened with 50 points gap down and fell 186 points (-0.76%) in the first hour. In the second hour, the index fell another -0.71% to 24180, the day’s low from where the recovery started. The second hour closed with a loss of 74 points (-0.30%) at 24278, just above the support of 24250. Then the market rallied in the third hour. It rose 281 points (1.16%) in the third hour and then continued to rise with every passing hour. Day’s high was 24792 and the index closed the day with a gain of 219 points (0.89%) at 24768. I mentioned in my report on 4 December 2024 that till 24100 is intact, this is a buy on dips market. Today was a confirmation of that.
All the sectoral indexes had a similar pattern on the hourly and daily charts.
Even Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 had a similar pattern. For Midcap, I wrote yesterday that “It closed below the rising trendline from which it fell on 7 November 2024. After a one way upside move, there is a possibility for the index to retrace to 58000/57500 (-1.69%/-2.54%).” Midcap 100 bounced from the low of 58012, just above the first support of 58000. It closed the day flat.
For the Smallcap 100, yesterday I mentioned that “It is possible for the index to retrace to the level of 19000/18930 (-2.39%/-2.75%) before making a fresh upside move.” 19047 was the low for the day and it closed with a loss of -0.30%.
Biggest sectoral gainers for the day were FMCG 1.29%, Infra 1.19%, Private Bank 0.80%, IT 0.64%, Auto 0.48% and Energy 0.46%. Whereas the biggest losers were Metal -0.72%, Media -0.59%, Realty -0.44%, Pharma -0.32% and PSU Bank -0.18%.
Reliance was down -1.22% in the opening hour. In the second hour, it made a doji with the low at 1239. Then the stock rallied and closed at 1272, near day’s high, which was 1275. It gained 0.79% for the day and closed in green for the first time this week.
NAS100USD: Capitalizing on Bearish Displacement!Greetings Traders!
In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, the M15 timeframe shows a recent shift to bearish price action, marked by significant displacement to the downside. This displacement provides strong evidence of institutional sell order distribution, as seen in the large bearish candles that led to a bearish break of structure.
Key Observations:
1. Premium Price Retracement:
After the bearish break, price retraced into deep premium levels, where institutional arrays are present.
These premium zones offer opportunities to seek confirmations for selling toward discount prices.
2. Breaker Block as a Key Zone:
Price has retraced into a premium breaker block, a critical mitigation zone.
What is a Breaker Block?
Breaker blocks are mitigation zones created as institutions mitigate losses from opposing orders placed during the prior trend.
Once price retraces to these zones, institutions close those losing positions and reinstate new orders to align with the prevailing trend.
Trading Strategy:
Entry: Look for confirmation at the premium breaker block to align with institutional order flow.
Target: The primary target is the liquidity pool in discount prices, adhering to the principle of selling in premium and booking profits in discount zones, mirroring institutional strategies.
If you have insights or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s analyze, learn, and succeed together!
Kind Regards,
The Architect
Long Biased Market -> Wait for CorrectionPrice is moving towards a weak low. This should be ignored and we should wait until we reach the stronger level of demand formed via double bottom + absorption pattern.
Bullish Order Flow, but we need to wait until we reach a fair value to enter this market.
DXY Technical Analysis: Quasimodo Pattern Alert!The DXY (US Dollar Index) chart reveals a significant Quasimodo Pattern, a classic trend reversal signal indicating potential downside momentum. The key resistance level at 107.14 stands strong. If this level isn’t broken, we may see the price sliding down to the 104.13 support zone.
💡 What does this mean for the markets?
1️⃣ Forex: A weaker DXY could drive EUR/USD and GBP/USD higher, while USD/JPY might head lower.
2️⃣ Gold: A declining dollar often supports gold prices, pushing them upward.
3️⃣ Crypto: A DXY drop may provide a bullish push for risk assets like BTC and ETH.
4️⃣ Stock Market: A weaker dollar could benefit US exporters, potentially boosting equity markets.
🔍 Key focus now: Will the 107.14 resistance hold, or will we see a reversal from here? Stay tuned—big moves could be ahead! 📉📈
THE ONLY BULLISH WAVE COUNT The chart posted is the only bullish wave count based on what I see . I will await confirmation and take only a small long and Move to a 100 % puts if we rally above 6108
S&P Head and Shoulders by January - Knees and Toes by February?The S&P 500 has recently formed a solid left shoulder and is now halfway through developing the head of a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern and divergence suggest we could form the right ear this week. This classic chart formation is often a sign of an upcoming trend reversal, typically from bullish to bearish. If the current pattern continues to unfold, the index could complete the right shoulder by January, signaling a shift in market sentiment. The key to confirming this reversal will be a break below the neckline, which is the support level formed between the left shoulder and head (aka the pearl necklace). Traders will be watching closely for any signs of weakness in the market as the price approaches this critical level. While the pattern isn't set in stone, the possibility of a bearish trend emerging by early next year is something investors should keep an eye on. If the pattern completes, the S&P could experience a significant pullback, so keep your eyes peeled because it could get bananas. A move above the current zone could cancel out this pattern from forming.
Chance of forming: <50%
Nifty is again a rising star..We today saw Nifty rising like a Phoenix to close the day at 24768 after making a low of 24180. In one of the most volatile session Nifty gained 588 points from day's low. The rise was from the right side bud of the star formation which gave superlative support to Nifty on the weekly chart. The weekly candle formation is of the shape of Thor's hammer which means further upside cannot be ruled out subject to Nifty closing above 24860. In such a scenario further resistances for Nifty will be at 25240 and 25514.
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25514 is the sigma resistance of the Star which can be little difficult to conquer but in case this level is conquered by Bulls further upside of 25665, 25919 and finally 26K+ levels cannot be ruled out. Supports for Nifty remain at 24500, 24184, 23907, 23396 (Mother line of 50 Weeks EMA) and finally 23187 which is the channel bottom support.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock. We do not guarantee any success in highly volatile market or otherwise. Stock market investment is subject to market risks which include global and regional risks. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message.
Market Year Wrap With Gary Thomson: 2024 Market Insights & 2025 Market Year Wrap With Gary Thomson: 2024 Market Insights & 2025 Outlook
As we approach the close of 2024, it’s time to reflect on results and think of potential opportunities for the year ahead. Join Gary Thomson, the COO of FXOpen UK, as he sums up the key market trends that shaped 2024 and provides insights on what to expect in 2025.
- Inflation and Interest Rates
- Forex Market Trends
- Commodity Markets
- Stock Market Highlights
- 2025 Outlook
🌐 FXOpen official website: www.fxopen.com
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing your money.
Why I see US 30 more bearish currently!!Hello guys,
** Today all had great bullish effect apart from that index.
** The index already slipped down a strong uptrend and retraced to and then went down from it (the long purple line)
** The index should go above the light purple downtrend line above 44340 (my Fib level too) to break that bearish wave and go up, but till now it can not! once it will close a 4h candle on, will turn the index to bullish
** There is still in yellow rectangle so strong support area where the last big bullish wave started from and I see that the index intends to revisit that area again at 43810 to gain back the buying power.
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
Imob real state brazil trend downIMOB the main index about real state in Brazil has just collapsed after Central bank raike its interest rate and guidance for more increase in the next months due to it most real state companies will suffer quite a bit cause they need quite huge amount of capital for keep the business running mainly for costs to build.
US30 Continues to Fall. Likely to go to 43360 US30 Retested upper supports at 0500 and 0600 Hours. At that point we were looking for entries on an intraday short. Which we took. US30 is currently Falling and will likely hit 43369 area before looking to return bullish as the Dow Jones continues to show signs of weakness.
If you are already in a short you can hold it. If you want to get in on an entry price is quickly approaching a week support line at 43800. If it breaks this support, look for a retest for a clean entry.
If you are waiting for the Bullish trend we will be waiting at least 5 trading days at this point.
Let me know your thoughts!
My new target for DAX!Hello guys,
Dax is planning still to go up and broke the downtrend line and my target is on the chart!
My ideas are exclusive to myself only and is not regarded as an advice for traders or investors and are not more than personal thoughts which I just wanted to share with you all and I do hope they could help.
I am not selling any signals and I do not take money favour any trades recommendations. They are free of charge all lifelong but I keep the copy rights of them though to not be copied or shared or sold.
