DXY strengthens but can it break THIS key level?The US dollar has gained ground this week, with the Dollar Index rising to retest the previously broken April low near the 97.92 level—an important technical zone. The short-term bias would flip to being bullish if this area breaks.
The greenback’s strength has been underpinned in part by unexpectedly strong economic data. For instance, Thursday’s weekly jobless claims came in at 227,000, below the forecast of 235,000. This marks the fourth consecutive weekly decline and the lowest reading in seven weeks, reinforcing the view that the US labour market remains tighter than anticipated.
Adding to this backdrop are President Trump’s threats of higher tariffs and expansive fiscal plans—described as “big, beautiful” spending and tax initiatives. These factors increase the risk of more persistent inflation.
While the Federal Reserve is still widely expected to initiate rate cuts in September, the rising inflationary pressures could slow the pace of easing thereafter. This shift would likely provide support for the dollar so long as investors don't lose trust in US monetary policy.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Market indices
Quick take on the S&P500From the very short-term perspective, the SP:SPX is currently stuck in a tight range. Waiting for a little breakout.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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NasdaqNon-commercials (hedge funds, asset managers, etc.) are adding significant long exposure.
This usually reflects confidence in continued upside, often in line with strong tech earnings, soft landing narratives, or a dovish Fed.
Bias: Bullish
Large speculators significantly increased long exposure on Nasdaq futures, showing strong confidence in continued upside momentum. This aligns with recent tech-led rallies and soft-landing expectations.
DowJones bullish breakout retest?Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 45000
Resistance Level 2: 45445
Resistance Level 3: 46000
Support Level 1: 44000
Support Level 2: 43700
Support Level 3: 43430
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
DXY Bearish Bias
Institutions are currently holding a net short position on the Dollar, indicating bearish sentiment. With a net position of -4,282, we may expect continued weakness in the DXY, especially if price reacts from key supply zones. Swing traders should remain cautious with long setups and prioritize opportunities aligned with USD weakness across major pairs.
NSDQ100 Bullish breakout retest?Donald Trump escalated trade tensions again, threatening a 35% tariff on Canadian goods shortly after reopening trade talks, and floated doubling global tariffs to 20%. This reinforces his aggressive protectionist stance and puts renewed pressure on allies like Canada and Vietnam, the latter blindsided by a 20% levy. Meanwhile, US-China relations may be entering a critical phase, with a possible Trump-Xi summit hinted at by Marco Rubio during talks in Malaysia.
On the geopolitical front, Trump is signaling a harder line on Russia, previewing a “major statement” and backing expanded sanctions as the US sends more weapons to Ukraine. This raises global uncertainty, especially for energy and defense sectors.
Conclusion for NSDQ100 trading:
Rising trade tensions and geopolitical risks may dampen market sentiment and lead to volatility in tech-heavy Nasdaq stocks, particularly those reliant on global supply chains. While traders have grown numb to tariff talk, the cumulative pressure suggests a downside risk is building. In the short term, maintain a cautious stance—watch for potential pullbacks and heightened intraday volatility as policy clarity remains elusive.
Key Support and Resistance Levels
Resistance Level 1: 22940
Resistance Level 2: 23060
Resistance Level 3: 23180
Support Level 1: 22410
Support Level 2: 22300
Support Level 3: 22130
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
are we going ath? let us now~~indices looks green, so we rally?
no trump tariffs?
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SPX500 Bearish Below 6246 – Eyes 6223 and 6195SPX500 Analysis
SPX500 stays under bearish pressure below 6246, targeting 6223 and possibly 6195 if the decline continues.
Recent tariff escalation by President Trump is adding weight to downside momentum across indices.
Pivot: 6246
Support: 6223, 6195, 6143
Resistance: 6268, 6291
Institutional Trading Process 1. Investment Idea Generation
This is where it all begins.
Institutions generate trading ideas based on:
Fundamental research (company earnings, macroeconomic data)
Quantitative models (statistical or algorithmic strategies)
Technical analysis (price action, trends, volume)
Sentiment analysis (news flow, social media, market psychology)
Often, the research team, quant team, or portfolio managers work together to develop high-conviction trade ideas backed by data and analysis.
2. Pre-Trade Analysis and Risk Assessment
Before placing a trade, institutions perform:
Risk/reward analysis
Scenario testing (How does the trade perform in different market conditions?)
Volatility analysis
Position sizing based on portfolio risk budget
Nifty 50 Index (2h time frame)Nifty 50 Index (2h time frame), here is the analysis and potential target levels:
🔍 Technical Breakdown:
Trendline Break: The chart shows a rising trendline which has been broken to the downside.
Ichimoku Cloud: Price has moved below the cloud, indicating bearish momentum.
Arrows & Levels: Two downward arrows suggest potential drop zones.
🎯 Target Levels (as marked on chart):
1. First Target Zone:
📍 Around 24,400
Likely first support zone / take-profit level after breakdown.
2. Second Target Zone:
📍 Around 23,800
Deeper correction zone based on prior support and structure.
✅ Summary:
If the breakdown sustains below the trendline and cloud:
Immediate target: 24,400
Extended target: 23,800
Let me know if you want stop-loss ideas or a risk/reward plan for this trade.
NIFTY BROKE DOWN SUPPORT LEVEL,BUT SOME BOUNCE BACK IS EXPECTEDNIFTY Analysis Update
Recent Price Action
- The **25330** level acted as a significant support zone, as discussed previously.
- The market opened with a gap down below 25330, confirming bearish pressure.
- The next anticipated support at **25200** was also breached, and the session closed below this level.
- With these supports broken, the **25050–25000** range is now identified as the next key support zone.
Technical Indicators
- The **Relative Strength Index (RSI)** is showing extreme oversold conditions across smaller timeframes.
- Such oversold readings typically suggest the potential for a technical bounce or reversal, as selling momentum may be exhausted.
Outlook for Monday
- Given the oversold RSI, there is a heightened probability of a **reversal or bounce** on Monday.
- A rebound towards the **25500-25700** zone is possible, which could serve as a near-term resistance or top before the next directional move.
- If the market manages to close in green, it would confirm the short-term reversal thesis.
Key Levels to Watch
25330: Previous major support (broken)
25200: Next support (broken)
25050–25000: Current support zone
25500-25700: Potential bounce/reversal target
Summary
- **Immediate trend:** Bearish pressure persists after key supports were broken.
- **Short-term outlook:** Oversold conditions suggest a potential bounce; watch for a move toward 25700.
- **Risk:** Failure to hold 25000 could trigger further downside.
Monitor price action closely around the support and resistance zones, and watch for confirmation of reversal signals on Monday.
Bearish Momentum Builds Below pivot zone USNAS100 Analysis
Price has reversed from its ATH and now shows bearish momentum.
Below 22705, downside targets are 22615 and 22420.
Bullish scenario only valid if price breaks and holds above 22815.
Pivot: 22710
Support: 22615, 22420
Resistance: 22815, 22910
DXY (USD Basket) - 3 Month - Short Squeeze In Play?Technicals:
The last 3-month candle closed above the major resistance that tends to hold according to historic levels going back to the year 1967.
Golden Cross is almost complete (50 MA crossing the 200 MA).
Fundamentals:
The dollar has only been more shorted once in history (2018), setting things up for a potential "Short Squeeze" and triggering a "Risk Off" scenario. Tends to hurt risk assets quite hard—for example, tech stocks, crypto, and other leverage plays.
A rise in the DXY could potentially trigger a "Short Squeeze" for foreign countries, companies, and investors that borrow in USD, creating "economic panic" in other countries that get their currency devalued relative to their obligations.
Countries that need USD to service their debt. With the current tariffs, the flow of dollars in the world will change. The question is: what will the effect look like in August when these tariffs start to go live? Like I mentioned before, other countries need the dollars in order to service their debt. If it gets more expensive for US consumers to import (caused by the tariffs), the exporting countries won’t get those dollars—setting it up for a buying cycle that could potentially drive the USD (DXY) higher, even to all-time highs.
Current narrative:
The narrative right now is that the USD will get "worthless," setting the stage to take more risk and use more leverage, maybe without even hedging. A surprise variable to this narrative could be devastating to the financial markets—not just in the US, but even to the world. IF/When this happens, everyone will hunt the USD once again, creating a new bullish narrative for the USD, and everyone will be forced to return to the reserve currency.
Nothing in this post should be considered financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before investing.
20% in 60 daysSince the 90's we have seen many times where the broader market (SPX) has seen a pretty significant pull back, more than 10% and then a rally. Almost every time the market rose more than 20% in 60 days or less has been a good place to take profits. Clearly everything is super bullish right now, and I am not saying this will be the top, I am simply saying, we could experience a correction driven by profit taking. In an uptrend, you want to be a buyer on pull backs, so a pull back could give us another longer term opportunity
Will NIFTY make a price correction?
My first scenario is still valid and I think it is more likely to happen. It seems that Wave-g has ended from the second pattern and I think NIFTY50 will decline at least to the price range of the X-wave and there we need to check the waves again to see what pattern is forming. To confirm this scenario, a break below the key level of 25000 is very important.
I have also proposed a second scenario that this correction may be an X-wave and after that the price can eventually grow to 25680-26133 and spend time there to complete the third pattern. This scenario is also valid as long as the price remains above the level of 25000.
The price correction that is forming can be a double combination pattern like triangle - X - diametric or triangle - X - triangle.
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
Good luck
NEoWave Chart
FTSE100 overbought pullback supported at 8880The FTSE remains in a bullish trend, with recent price action showing signs of a corrective pullback within the broader uptrend.
Support Zone: 8880 – a key level from previous consolidation. Price is currently testing or approaching this level.
A bullish rebound from 8880 would confirm ongoing upside momentum, with potential targets at:
8900 – initial resistance
9040 – psychological and structural level
9090 – extended resistance on the longer-term chart
Bearish Scenario:
A confirmed break and daily close below 8880 would weaken the bullish outlook and suggest deeper downside risk toward:
8840 – minor support
8820 – stronger support and potential demand zone
Outlook:
Bullish bias remains intact while the FTSE holds above 8880. A sustained break below this level could shift momentum to the downside in the short term.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
Nifty levels - Jul 14, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
BankNifty levels - Jul 14, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
US30 Market Recap – 07/11/2025📍 US30 Market Recap – 07/11/2025
Another range-bound day on US30 as price continues to chop between key zones. Bulls pushed into 44,700, but failed to hold gains. We’re now sitting near the mid-range, and market indecision is growing 🤔
📊 Current Structure:
Range: 44,220 (support) ↔️ 44,867 (resistance)
Mid-range: 44,500 zone acting as key pivot
EMA structure still mixed: 20 EMA trying to cross back above 50 EMA
Lower highs building since last test of 44,867 = signs of seller presence
🔑 Key Levels:
🔼 Resistance: 44,701 → 44,867
🔽 Support: 44,260 → 44,220
⚠️ Mid-zone chop: 44,400–44,500 (avoid fomo entries here)
💡 Trade Setup Ideas:
🔻 Short Setup (If rejection holds below 44,500):
Entry: Rejection candle or break/retest under 44,400
TP1: 44,260
TP2: 44,100
SL: Above 44,600
🔼 Long Setup (Only above 44,700 reclaim):
Entry: Strong close + retest above 44,700
TP: 44,867 highs
SL: Below 44,500
🚫 NO-TRADE ZONE: 44,350–44,500 chop range = indecision zone ⚠️