NAS100 1WTake a look at this chart! After a solid uptrend, the price broke an important ascending trendline and corrected down to the 0.5 Fibonacci level — right where a key structural support zone is (that blue area near the bottom).
From there, we’ve seen a strong bounce back upward, and now the price has reached a critical zone:
Previous resistance
The 0.618 to 0.786 Fibonacci retracement area
And most importantly, a retest (pullback) to the broken trendline
There are two possible scenarios ahead:
1. If the price breaks and holds above this resistance zone, we might see the continuation of the bullish move.
2. But if it fails to break through, the market could enter another corrective phase.
Also, keep in mind that we have the interest rate decision this week. With Trump applying repeated pressure, there’s a chance rates might be cut — which could fuel a green, bullish market.
Market indices
DJT a trigger for stock markets?During Friday's session on WS, DJT closed near Fib. 0,382, a regular level for wave 4 termination.
During the last weeks, a "Contracting Triangle" and even a "Thrust" at 14140 apparently has been formed, which is slightly above the upper resistance-line of the trend-channel and not unusual.
This indicates, that the bullish sentiment of the last periods might be over.
Furthermore SPX and NDX, both closed well above Fib. 0,618, which often is a level for trend reversal.
DJI is also very close to this level. (It will be only a question of hours!)
NIFTY50.....Buying panic all around!
Hello Traders,
the NIFTY50 has extended my cited price area to ~24620 range. It was exactly @ 24589.15 points!
Here, a wave iii (blue) ended!
Chart analysis:
If this was all of waves (5) of iii (blue), the next move could be a wave iv (blue) to around the range of 23709 to 23845.15 zone! This one should morph into an a-b-c correction, or a triangle. While triangles are the most often failed chart patterns during a wave iv of any degree is, we will focus on the a-b-c correction!
So, one higher high is still missing, but I guess the next high will be just a wave ((i)) of v (blue) with more highs to come!
As I am in a hurry, only a short update today. I'll try to publish another update by Wednesday.
Have a great Sunday.....
Ruebennase
Please ask or comment as appropriate.
Trade on this analysis at your own risk.
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Caution time in niftyFrom few days market is going sideways in direction while number of declining stocks in market have surpassed the number of advancing stocks which shows us the underlying selling in stocks. This shows underlying weakness in stock market. This may change in future but currently need to be cautious in market. Tighten your stoplosses or trade with low position size.
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SET : Short term support & resistanceAs shown in the chart, the stock is currently trading between well-defined support and resistance levels on the weekly timeframe. The long-term support zone aligns with the historical low established during the last major market crisis, which has been retested recently. This confluence suggests a strong structural base unless macro conditions deteriorate significantly.
Given that the price has held this crisis-era support, the probability of a sustained breakdown remains limited at this point. However, if this level is breached decisively, it would indicate a major shift in the long-term trend — potentially transitioning from a cyclical correction into a secular downtrend. In such a case, the technical landscape would deteriorate into what could be described as a prolonged bearish phase or even a structural bear market.
Until then, the current price action can be interpreted as a high-stakes accumulation or bottoming process, with key resistance levels to watch for any signs of reversal confirmation.
Weekly Market Wrap Nifty, Mid & Small Caps, and S&P 500 OutlookNifty ended the week on a strong bullish note, closing at 24,346, up by 307 points from the previous week. The index traded within a tight range, hitting a high of 24,589 and a low of 24,054, aligning perfectly with my projected range of 24,650–23,400.
📌 Key Technical Levels to Watch:
Nifty closed just below a crucial Fibonacci resistance at 24,414.
A daily close above 24,414 next week could open the door for a sharp move towards the next major resistance at 24,770.
While my system suggests a broader range of 24,900–23,800, I personally hope for a healthy consolidation to cool off some momentum—paving the way for a stronger, faster rally in the coming weeks.
Caution Zone:
A break below 23,800 might signal the return of bears, potentially dragging the index down to test critical support at 23,200/23,100.
Midcap & Smallcap Watch:
I’ve received a lot of queries about Midcap and Smallcap indices, and here’s the honest truth—they remain in a 'no-trade' zone. Despite Nifty's strength, the rally hasn’t lifted most Mid & Small Cap stocks.
👉 Investors holding quality, fundamentally strong stocks in these segments should stay calm, but avoid high PE or overvalued stocks until we get a clear monthly buy signal on the charts.
🌍 Global Markets – S&P 500 Analysis:
The S&P 500 closed the week at 5,686, just above the strong Fibonacci level of 5,637. Sustaining above this level could lead to a rally toward 5,770/5,821. However, a failure to hold this support might trigger a 2–3% pullback, which could ripple across global markets, including India.
📣 Bottom Line:
Nifty bulls need a close above 24,414 to push higher.
Mid & Small Cap space remains tricky—stay selective.
Watch global cues, especially from the US, for broader market direction.
Stay nimble, stay informed. ✅
UK100 FTSEWhat is UK100?
UK100, commonly known as the FTSE 100 Index or the Footsie, is the United Kingdom’s premier stock market index. It tracks the performance of the 100 largest and most highly capitalized blue-chip companies listed on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). The index is capitalization-weighted, meaning companies with larger market caps have a greater influence on the index’s movements.
As of March 2025, the FTSE 100 had a total market capitalization of approximately £2.12 trillion.
The index includes many internationally focused companies, so its performance is influenced by global economic factors and currency exchange rates, not just the UK economy.
Does Bond Yield Affect UK100?
Yes, bond yields significantly affect the FTSE 100 in several ways:
Rising UK government bond yields (gilts) increase borrowing costs for companies, which can reduce profits and weigh on stock prices, including those in the FTSE 100.
Higher bond yields also make fixed-income investments more attractive relative to equities, potentially causing capital to flow out of stocks and into bonds, putting downward pressure on the index.
Conversely, falling bond yields lower borrowing costs and often encourage investment in equities, supporting the FTSE 100.
Bond yield movements are also influenced by monetary policy expectations, inflation outlook, and fiscal policy, which indirectly impact stock valuations.
Recent volatility in German and UK bond yields has caused ripple effects in the FTSE 100, reflecting concerns about interest rates and economic outlook.
Major Companies That Make Up UK100 (Selected Key Constituents)
The FTSE 100 includes companies from various sectors such as banking, energy, healthcare, consumer goods, and industrials. Some of the largest and most influential companies by market capitalization as of 2025 include:
Company Sector Approx. Market Cap (2025)
AstraZeneca Healthcare £190+ billion
Shell Energy £185+ billion
HSBC Holdings Banking & Financials £130+ billion
Unilever Consumer Goods £100+ billion
Rio Tinto Mining & Materials £95+ billion
BP Energy £85+ billion
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) Healthcare £75+ billion
Diageo Consumer Goods Large-cap
Barclays Banking & Financials Large-cap
British American Tobacco Consumer Goods Large-cap
The FTSE 100 covers 20 industry sectors, with Banks, Health Care, Industrial Goods & Services, and Energy sectors making up about 50% of the index’s total capitalization.
Summary
What is UK100? The FTSE 100 Index, tracking the 100 largest UK-listed companies by market cap
Bond Yield Impact Rising yields increase borrowing costs and attract capital to bonds, often pressuring stocks; falling yields support equities
Key Companies AstraZeneca, Shell, HSBC, Unilever, Rio Tinto, BP, GSK, Diageo, Barclays, British American Tobacco
In conclusion, the UK100 (FTSE 100) is a major UK stock market index heavily influenced by global economic factors, including bond yields. Movements in UK government bond yields affect corporate borrowing costs and investor asset allocation decisions, thereby impacting the FTSE 100’s price action. The index is dominated by large multinational companies across diverse sectors, making it a broad indicator of UK-listed blue-chip performance
GER40What is GER40?
GER40, commonly known as the DAX 40, is Germany’s premier stock market index that tracks the performance of the 40 largest and most liquid German blue-chip companies listed primarily on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It reflects the overall health of the German economy and is a key benchmark for European equity markets.
The DAX 40 is a market-capitalization-weighted index using a free-float methodology, meaning it only considers shares available for public trading.
It is a total return index, which means dividends paid by constituent companies are reinvested in the index calculation.
The index replaced the previous DAX 30 in September 2021 by expanding the number of constituents from 30 to 40 companies.
Does Bond Yield Affect GER40?
Yes, bond yields do affect the GER40 price movements, as they influence the cost of capital, investor risk appetite, and economic outlook:
Rising German government bond yields typically increase borrowing costs for companies, which can weigh on corporate profits and stock valuations, potentially pressuring the DAX 40 lower.
Higher yields may also make fixed income more attractive relative to equities, causing capital to flow out of stocks into bonds.
Conversely, falling bond yields lower borrowing costs and often signal economic uncertainty, which can support or sometimes depress stocks depending on the context.
The DAX 40’s sensitivity to bond yields is also influenced by broader European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy and global risk sentiment.
Additionally, the US Treasury yields and US Dollar strength indirectly impact the GER40 by affecting global capital flows and export competitiveness of German multinational companies.
Companies That Make Up GER40 (Selected Major Constituents)
The DAX 40 consists of 39 companies (due to share classes) across various sectors. Here are some key members with their sectors and approximate market caps:
Company Ticker Sector Market Cap (Approx.)
Adidas AG ADS Personal Goods €36.5 billion
Airbus SE AIR Aerospace & Defence €122.8 billion
Allianz SE ALV Life Insurance €141.1 billion
BASF SE BAS Chemicals €40.2 billion
Bayer AG BAYN Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology €22.6 billion
BMW AG BMW Automobiles & Parts €44.7 billion
Deutsche Bank AG DBK Banks €45.0 billion
Deutsche Telekom AG DTE Telecommunications €157.0 billion
Infineon Technologies AG IFX Technology Hardware & Equipment €37.8 billion
Mercedes-Benz Group AG MBG Automobiles & Parts €50.8 billion
Siemens AG SIE Industrial Conglomerate (Included in DAX)
SAP SE SAP Software & IT Services (Included in DAX)
Volkswagen AG VOW3 Automobiles & Parts (Included in DAX)
Deutsche Post AG DHL Commercial Transportation €45.4 billion
Munich Re (Muenchener Rueck) MUV2 Reinsurance €80.5 billion
(There are 39 stocks tracked due to share classes; full list includes companies from chemicals, healthcare, insurance, technology, automotive, and industrial sectors.)
Summary
What is GER40? Germany’s main blue-chip index tracking 40 largest companies on Frankfurt Stock Exchange
Bond Yield Impact Rising yields can pressure stocks via higher borrowing costs; falling yields can support stocks depending on context
Key Companies Adidas, Airbus, Allianz, BASF, Bayer, BMW, Deutsche Bank, Deutsche Telekom, Infineon, Mercedes-Benz, Siemens, SAP, Volkswagen, Munich Re, Deutsche Post, etc.
The GER40 is heavily influenced by Germany’s economic conditions, ECB policy, global trade dynamics, and bond market movements. Rising bond yields generally create headwinds for the index, while falling yields and accommodative monetary policy tend to support it.
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Recently, the economic data of the United States has shown mixed performance. The non-farm payrolls added in April were higher than expected, but the data for March was revised downward, and the number of initial jobless claims also exceeded expectations. Overall, the U.S. Dollar Index still has a trend of fluctuating. Pay attention to the resistance level of 100.3742 above and the support level of 99.2702 below. In terms of trading operations, it is mainly advisable to take short positions on rebounds.
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US30What is US30?
The US30, also known as the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) or simply the Dow 30, is a widely followed stock market index that tracks the performance of 30 large, publicly traded U.S. companies. These companies are considered some of the most important and influential in the U.S. economy, representing a diverse range of sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, consumer goods, and industrials.
The index is price-weighted, meaning that stocks with higher share prices have a greater impact on the index’s value than those with lower prices. The DJIA is calculated by adding the prices of all 30 component stocks and dividing by a divisor that adjusts for stock splits and other corporate actions.
The US30 acts as a barometer of the U.S. stock market and overall economic health, though it only includes 30 companies and is not weighted by market capitalization like the S&P 500.
Companies That Make Up the US30 (As of 2025)
The 30 companies in the US30 include some of the largest and most influential U.S. corporations:
Apple Inc. (AAPL) – Technology
Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) – Technology
Nvidia Corporation (NVDA) – Technology
Visa Inc. (V) – Financial Services
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) – Healthcare
Procter & Gamble Company (PG) – Consumer Goods
Walmart Inc. (WMT) – Retail
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) – Financial Services
The Coca-Cola Company (KO) – Consumer Goods
The Home Depot, Inc. (HD) – Retail
McDonald's Corporation (MCD) – Consumer Services
UnitedHealth Group Incorporated (UNH) – Healthcare
The Travelers Companies, Inc. (TRV) – Insurance
The Boeing Company (BA) – Aerospace & Defense
Amgen Inc. (AMGN) – Biotechnology
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) – Financial Services
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) – Machinery
Merck & Co., Inc. (MRK) – Pharmaceuticals
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) – Technology
Chevron Corporation (CVX) – Energy
IBM Corporation (IBM) – Technology
Honeywell International Inc. (HON) – Industrials
Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) – Technology
The Walt Disney Company (DIS) – Media & Entertainment
Nie, Inc. (NKE) – Consumer Goods
Verizon Communications Inc. (VZ) – Telecommunications
American Express Company (AXP) – Financial Services
3M Company (MMM) – Conglomerates
Walgreens Boots Alliance, Inc. (WBA) – Retail
Dow Inc. (DOW) – Chemicals
How Bond Yields and the US Dollar (DXY) Affect US30 Price Movement
Bond Yields Impact
Rising bond yields (especially U.S. Treasury yields) generally increase borrowing costs for companies, which can dampen corporate profits and weigh on stock prices, including those in the US30.
Higher yields can also make bonds more attractive relative to stocks, causing some investors to shift capital out of equities and into fixed income, putting downward pressure on the US30.
Conversely, falling bond yields reduce borrowing costs and can boost stock valuations, supporting gains in the US30.
US Dollar Index (DXY) Impact
The US Dollar Index (DXY) measures the strength of the dollar against a basket of major currencies.
A stronger dollar can hurt multinational companies in the US30 by making their exports more expensive and reducing the value of overseas earnings when converted back to USD, often leading to downward pressure on the index.
A weaker dollar tends to support US30 companies with significant international sales, potentially boosting the index.
Additionally, dollar strength often reflects risk-off sentiment, which can coincide with stock market declines, while dollar weakness often aligns with risk-on sentiment and rising equities.
Summary
Factor Effect on US30 Price Movement
Rising Bond Yields Negative: Higher borrowing costs, shift to bonds
Falling Bond Yields Positive: Lower borrowing costs, stocks more attractive
Stronger US Dollar Negative: Exporters hurt, overseas earnings worth less
Weaker US Dollar Positive: Boosts multinational earnings, supports stocks
In essence, the US30 reflects the performance of 30 major U.S. companies weighted by stock price. Its price movements are influenced by macroeconomic factors such as bond yields and the US dollar, which affect corporate profitability and investor risk appetite.
Chart Called It S&P 500 Bottom on April 7 Confirmed the March 27On March 27, 2025, I published an analysis identifying the potential for a major bottom forming in the S&P 500 near 4,790.57:
Original chart and analysis
At that time, the index was consolidating just above key support, with growing downside pressure ahead of major economic reports. Despite broad caution in the market, the technical setup signaled a potential reversal.
The first rising channel developed in March, helping to support the rebound but it later broke to the downside, leading to another test of support. That move did not invalidate the broader structure.
On April 7, the S&P 500 made its cycle low at 4,835.04, just shy of the target. Since then, a second rising channel has formed, with higher lows and momentum supported by volume.
The price is now approaching major resistance at 5,822.
If it gets rejected, a pullback toward the rising trendline or the 5,438 area is likely. As long as price holds above the April 7 low and respects trendline support, the bullish structure remains intact. A confirmed breakdown below that support would increase the risk of a deeper retracement.
This progression underscores the importance of trusting price structure over sentiment.
The market followed the chart.
The bottom was April 7.
The call was made March 27.
The chart led the move.
NASDAQ-100 Head & Shoulders Breakdown?I've been tracking a potential head and shoulders pattern on the NASDAQ-100, with a neckline at 17,720. If the pattern completes and breaks down convincingly, the measured move projects a target near 13,200 — a significant potential drop.
While technical patterns aren’t guarantees, they often coincide with underlying fundamentals. In this case, there are several macroeconomic headwinds that could catalyze such a decline:
Sticky Inflation and Interest Rate Uncertainty: Despite some progress, inflation remains above the Fed’s target. A “higher for longer” rate environment continues to pressure equity valuations, especially in tech-heavy indexes like the NASDAQ-100.
Weakening Consumer and Corporate Spending: Retail sales and corporate earnings revisions have shown signs of fatigue, suggesting slowing momentum in key economic drivers.
Global Tensions and Supply Chain Risks: Ongoing geopolitical instability, including issues in the Middle East and renewed U.S.–China trade rhetoric, could reignite volatility and affect global growth assumptions.
Overvaluation and Narrow Market Breadth: A small group of mega-cap tech names have driven much of the recent rally, leaving the broader market vulnerable if leadership falters.
With technical and fundamental factors aligning, this setup is worth watching closely. A confirmed break below the neckline could be more than just a chart pattern—it may reflect a broader shift in sentiment.
DXY (US Dollar Index) – Bullish Setup📊 DXY (US Dollar Index) – Bullish Setup from FVG & Trendline Confluence
Price tapped into a well-defined Fair Value Gap (FVG UP) aligning with bullish trendline support. I'm anticipating a small retracement toward the 99.88–99.81 area before continuation upward.
📍 Entry Zone: 99.88 – 99.81 (FVG + Trendline)
🛑 Stop Loss: 99.71
🎯 Target (TP): 100.32
📐 RR: Approx. 1:3
Confluences:
Bullish market structure
FVG filled & respected
Ascending trendline support
Liquidity taken below previous lows
🔔 Watching for bullish reaction after the minor pullback for confirmation.
My Thoughts #004My thoughts are that the pair will buy...
The daily trend is very much bearish and with trend once it have made a new low(LL)
We need to see it printing a new High(LH)
Confirmation??
I see a Choch and the market is creating Highs confirmation for the new High(LH)
The pair might just sell
So use proper risk management
Let's do the most