Resistance zones and Geo-political instability acting up.Geo-Political instability and resistance zone are acting up together to stop Nifty and not allowing it to close above 25K. As the world is looking at developments in Iran Vs Israel conflict with beated heart market today gave up some gains from yesterday. The only index looking strong is IT index right now. Avoid taking very long positions unless you are very sure of the company. Yesterday also Nifty failed to close above 25K opened briefly near 25K today and then moved downwards. Lot will be decided in the short term by the developments that happen tonight. Important G7 meet and US Federal reserve Rate Cut meet is also to happen later in the week. These 2 global factors will decide fate of the market in the short term. Local factors are all in line and nothing to worry for Indian markets on that front.
The supports for Nifty remain at: 24713 (Trend line support), 24425 (Mother line support of Daily chart), next support is near 23917, 23806 (Father line support of daily chart is in place). Closing below 23906 can lead to further down side and in such a scenario Nifty can fall further towards 23500 or 23047 levels. If we get a closing below that we will give updates regarding the same.
Resistances for Nifty remain at: 24982 (Today's high), 25112 and trend line resistance of 25251. When we get a closing above 25251 we will update you regarding the further upward resistnace levels.
Disclaimer: The above information is provided for educational purpose, analysis and paper trading only. Please don't treat this as a buy or sell recommendation for the stock or index. The Techno-Funda analysis is based on data that is more than 3 months old. Supports and Resistances are determined by historic past peaks and Valley in the chart. Many other indicators and patterns like EMA, RSI, MACD, Volumes, Fibonacci, parallel channel etc. use historic data which is 3 months or older cyclical points. There is no guarantee they will work in future as markets are highly volatile and swings in prices are also due to macro and micro factors based on actions taken by the company as well as region and global events. Equity investment is subject to risks. I or my clients or family members might have positions in the stocks that we mention in our educational posts. We will not be responsible for any Profit or loss that may occur due to any financial decision taken based on any data provided in this message. Do consult your investment advisor before taking any financial decisions. Stop losses should be an important part of any investment in equity.
Market indices
US30 Technical Overview – 06/17/2025📍 US30 Technical Overview – 06/17/2025
The Dow is consolidating below resistance after failing to reclaim the 42,424 EMA zone. Sellers are defending this level, while 42,102 remains a key support.
🧠 Key Observations:
EMA rejection near 42,424 🔄
Lower highs forming = short-term bearish bias
Demand still holding at 42,102
📊 Price Zones:
🔼 Resistance: 42,424 → 42,605
🔽 Support: 42,102 → 41,947
📈 Trade Setup Ideas:
🔹 Long Bias:
Break and hold above 42,424
→ Target: 42,605 → 42,793
🔻 Short Bias:
Break below 42,102
→ Target: 41,947 → 41,894
🎯 Price is currently between key levels—wait for a breakout before committing to direction!
S&P500 Channel Up buy opportunity.The S&P500 index (SPX) has been trading within a Channel Up and is now on a count (5) pull-back, breaking below its 4H MA50 (blue trend-line). As long as the 4H MA100 (green trend-line) holds, we expect the index to resume the uptrend, similar to the previous Bullish Leg of the Channel Up.
That Leg almost reached the 1.5 Fibonacci extension and made a Higher High. Our Target is marginally below the new 1.5 Fib ext at 6130.
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DAX INTRADAY resistance retest at 23690Trend Overview:
The DAX equity index remains in a bearish trend, with recent price action forming a corrective pullback within that prevailing structure.
Key Resistance Level:
23690: This level marks a significant previous intraday consolidation zone and acts as a key resistance barrier.
A rally into this zone is likely to face selling pressure unless buyers gain decisive control.
Bearish Scenario (Primary Bias):
A rejection from 23690, particularly if supported by bearish candlestick patterns or volume confirmation, would align with the broader downtrend.
This would set up potential downside targets at:
23200 – Initial support level.
23035 – Intermediate support.
22860 – Long-term support zone.
Bullish Scenario (Invalidation):
A confirmed breakout and daily close above 23690 would invalidate the current bearish bias.
This would open the path for a retest of:
23900 – Short-term resistance.
24080 – Higher resistance zone and potential trend reversal confirmation.
Conclusion:
The DAX is currently in a corrective phase within a bearish trend. A failure to break above 23690 would reinforce the downside setup toward 23200 and beyond. However, a daily close above 23690 would shift the technical outlook to bullish in the short term, with scope for a continuation higher toward 24080. Traders should monitor price behavior at 23690 closely for directional confirmation.
This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
BankNifty levels - Jun 18, 2025Utilizing the support and resistance levels of BankNifty, along with the 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP, can enhance the precision of trade entries and exits on or near these levels. It is crucial to recognize that these levels are not static, and they undergo alterations as market dynamics evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We trust that this information proves valuable to you.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you successful trading endeavors!
Nifty levels - Jun 18, 2025Nifty support and resistance levels are valuable tools for making informed trading decisions, specifically when combined with the analysis of 5-minute timeframe candlesticks and VWAP. By closely monitoring these levels and observing the price movements within this timeframe, traders can enhance the accuracy of their entry and exit points. It is important to bear in mind that support and resistance levels are not fixed, and they can change over time as market conditions evolve.
The dashed lines on the chart indicate the reaction levels, serving as additional points of significance to consider. Furthermore, take note of the response at the levels of the High, Low, and Close values from the day prior.
We hope you find this information beneficial in your trading endeavors.
* If you found the idea appealing, kindly tap the Boost icon located below the chart. We encourage you to share your thoughts and comments regarding it.
Wishing you success in your trading activities!
NAS100 – Major Rejection from Weekly Supply Zone!The NASDAQ 100 is showing clear signs of weakness after tagging the strong supply zone near 21,927, an area previously respected as resistance. The market printed a bearish daily close after failing to break above, forming a potential double top pattern just below key resistance.
🔵 Key Zones to Watch:
🔼 Supply Zone: 21,765 – 21,927 (Strong institutional selling pressure)
🔽 Next Target 1: 19,185 (mid-structure support)
🔽 Next Target 2: 16,948 (high-volume demand zone)
📉 Bearish Scenario: If price continues to reject the supply area, we expect momentum to shift bearish targeting the 19,185 zone and possibly 16,948 if major U.S. economic data disappoints.
⚡ Why This Setup Matters:
Market is overstretched, showing distribution signs
Risk-off sentiment growing ahead of major economic reports
Volume profile confirms resistance overhead
🎯 Trading Plan:
Monitor for confirmation (bearish engulfing, breakdown of recent lows)
Short bias below 21,765
Watch for reaction at 19,185 and strong buy interest at 16,948 zone
📊 Let’s hear your thoughts: Will NAS100 hold or is a deeper correction coming? Comment below! ⬇️
#NASDAQ #US100 #Indices #BearishReversal #SupplyDemand #SmartMoney #PriceAction #TradingSetup #TradingView #LuxAlgo
SPX500 Under Pressure Amid Renewed Israel-Iran TensionsSPX500 Overview
Israel-Iran Truce Hopes Collapse
Investor hopes for a swift de-escalation between Israel and Iran were quickly shattered as both sides resumed hostilities. The situation intensified further after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Iranian civilians to evacuate Tehran and abruptly ended his participation at the G7 summit, reportedly convening the U.S. National Security Council.
These developments have fueled broad risk-off sentiment across markets.
Technical Outlook:
SPX500 remains under bearish pressure as long as the price trades below 6010. A continued drop toward the key support at 5966 is likely, with a break below this level potentially opening the path to 5938 and 5902.
However, if the price stabilizes above 5966 without breaking it, we may see a rebound attempt toward 6010 and 6041.
Any signs of negotiation or de-escalation in the conflict could trigger a strong bullish reversal.
Support: 5966, 5938, 5902
Resistance: 6041, 6098, 6143
How Financial Markets Are Reacting to Middle East EscalationHow Financial Markets Are Reacting to the Escalation in the Middle East
The exchange of strikes between Iran and Israel continues. However, judging by the behaviour of various assets, market participants do not appear to expect further escalation:
→ Oil prices are falling. Monday’s candlestick on the XBR/USD chart closed significantly below the opening level.
→ Safe-haven assets are also retreating: the Swiss franc weakened during Monday’s U.S. session, while a bearish candle formed on the daily XAU/USD chart.
Equity markets, too, have largely held their ground.
The S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) climbed on Monday (A→B) following reports of potential talks between Iran and the U.S. However, it pulled back (B→C) after the U.S. President urged citizens to evacuate Tehran.
Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart
News of Israeli strikes on targets inside Iran led to a bearish breakout from the rising channel (marked with a red arrow), though the downward move failed to gain traction.
At present, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the formation of an ascending triangle — a signal of temporary balance between supply and demand.
Still, given the elevated geopolitical uncertainty, this balance remains fragile. It could be disrupted by:
→ Further developments in the Iran–Israel conflict (notably, Donald Trump left the G7 summit early due to the situation in the Middle East);
→ U.S. retail sales data , due today at 15:30 GMT+3.
It is possible that the S&P 500 may soon attempt to break out of the triangle , potentially triggering a new directional trend.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
SHORTS - GOTTA LOVE IT!📊 Multi-Market Signal Alignment: US30 & NAS100 (15-Min)
📍 Both indices triggered clean SELL signals at their highs using the ELFIEDT – X-REVERSION indicator.
The signal printed at the close of the strongest bullish bar, which often marks exhaustion — and price quickly rejected from that level.
✅ US30 printed two stacked 'DOWN' signals — the first entry bar was perfect.
✅ NAS100 printed a nearly identical signal at the same time — showing excellent intermarket confluence.
🧠 Why this setup worked:
Price extended far above mean structure
RSI was stretched and reversed immediately after
Signal printed on a bullish candle before reversal — allowing you to catch the high
Both assets signaled at the same time — strengthening the conviction
📌 Pro Tip: When multiple correlated instruments print reversal signals at the same time (especially indices or FX pairs), it often confirms institutional rotation. These trades offer great risk-reward if you stick to the plan.
NASDAQ 100 Bullish Breakout Potential: What to Watch NextI'm currently monitoring the NASDAQ 100 (NAS100) very closely. Building on yesterday’s outlook, we've now seen a clear bullish structural shift — price is holding firm above a recent higher high and higher low, suggesting the early stages of a potential trend continuation 📈
Zooming into the 30-minute chart, we can track price action more precisely. I’m watching for a decisive break above the current range high on this timeframe. If we get the break → retest → rejection pattern, this would confirm bullish momentum and provide a long opportunity 🚀
Should this scenario play out, we could also see JPY pairs strengthen to the upside, as a risk-on sentiment flows through the markets 🧭
🔍 This setup is developing — as always, patience and precision are key.
DXY: WILL WE GO LOWER.What's next from this point.
The month of June signals the start of quarter three based on the quarterly theory.Q3 is also referred to as the distribution phase or expansion.Given that information we expect to see expansion in majority of the market charts.
Our main focus is on DXY( Dollar index) which we pair against a basket of other currencies to get more insight on the foreign exchange market.We have witnessed a weak dollar in recent times. Weak is not an understatement as this is the poorest it has performed in recent years. The current prices were last seen during the covid era and has been used as baseline support for the pair in recent times.There have been a number of reasons for this and some carry more impact than others. Trade wars between the US and China have had the most impact and have been shaping up Trump's first year of his second term as president. Then lately we have witnessed the rising tensions in the middle east and feud between Islamic states and Israel.
We cannot foretell how lower we will go but we can keenly follow through the structures being broken and major price points being respected which will serve as indicators to the direction taken by the dxy.
With a calmer economic environment and support of strong economic data then we expect the dollar to rebound and propel higher. Not a full rebound but a play in the range between current lows and 102 which serves as the high for the previous two months.But if the current political turmoil persists and involvement of the US government in the middle eastern conflict then this will lead to an economic shakedown and an unpredictable dollar.
I hope this information will serve as a guide through this quarter. # SAFE TRADING EVERYONE.
US30 17 JUNE 2025 TRADE IDEA Based on the current US30 (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index) chart, the price action shows a strong bullish trend within a well-defined ascending channel that spans from mid-2023 through 2025. The index recently bounced off the mid-range zone near the 41,185 – 41,940 support levels and is now approaching a potential continuation move toward the upper resistance zone between 44,472 and 44,620. This area represents a key supply zone where price previously rejected, suggesting potential hesitation or reversal upon retest. The recent higher lows and breakout from a corrective phase indicate strong bullish structure, supported by institutional order flow—possibly driven by buy-side liquidity targeting previous highs. If the price maintains above 41,681 and creates a successful retest (break and retest confirmation), it offers a compelling opportunity for long positions aiming toward the channel top or key resistance.
From a Smart Money Concept (SMC) perspective, the market structure shifted bullish after sweeping liquidity below April's low followed by a clear Change of Character (ChoCH) and Break of Structure (BOS) to the upside. This shows strong accumulation by institutions. The demand zone formed around 41,185 – 41,681 can be considered a reaccumulation block and a potential entry point for buys on retracement.
Fundamental Context:
This week's movement must also be interpreted in light of broader geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which has implications on investor sentiment and global market volatility. Heightened tensions in the Middle East typically cause oil prices to spike and introduce risk-off sentiment. However, the Dow’s resilience suggests that U.S. investors may currently be pricing in confidence in the U.S. economy, strong corporate earnings, or the expectation that the Fed will maintain or cut interest rates if geopolitical shocks affect global demand. If tensions escalate further into military confrontation or affect major oil supply chains, we could see a temporary pullback or risk aversion across equities—including US30.
Trade Idea:
Bias: Bullish continuation (if current structure holds).
Entry Zone: Around 41,940–42,100 on a retest with bullish confirmation.
Stop Loss: Below 41,185 (structure invalidation).
Take Profit: First TP at 44,472; extended TP at 44,620 or channel top.
Invalidation: Break below 41,185 with a daily close.
In conclusion, unless the conflict between Iran and Israel leads to a sharp risk-off move, US30 appears poised for bullish continuation driven by technical momentum, strong market structure, and medium-term economic optimism. However, traders should monitor headlines closely, as escalation in the Middle East could introduce significant volatility.
US30 – Bearish Setup Below Resistance Zone US30 – Bearish Setup Below Resistance Zone 🚨🟥
The US30 index is exhibiting signs of bearish momentum after repeated rejections from the key resistance zone near 43,200. Let's break down the technical picture:
🔍 Technical Analysis
📌 Resistance Zone (🟥 43,200 area)
Price was rejected twice from this resistance (marked by red arrows), showing strong seller presence.
Bearish candlesticks followed each touch, confirming exhaustion near this level.
📌 Support Zone (🟦 40,800 area)
The area around 40,800 has acted as a strong demand zone in the past (highlighted with green arrows and orange circles).
Price might revisit this area if current bearish structure continues.
📌 Intermediate Support (🟪 41,828)
This level serves as short-term support.
If broken, it could accelerate the decline toward the major support.
📌 Market Structure
Lower highs forming after each bounce indicate weakening bullish strength.
A potential bearish breakout pattern is forming (highlighted by the projected path).
📈 Conclusion & Trade Outlook
Bias: Bearish 📉
Trigger: Break below 41,828 support
Target: 40,800 zone
Invalidation: Break and close above 43,200 resistance
VIX Trade Plan – May 23, 2025⚠️ VIX Trade Plan – May 23, 2025
📊 Instrument: VIX (Volatility Index)
🎯 Strategy: Long Exposure via Direct Shares
📈 Confidence: 70%
📅 Time Horizon: 3–4 Weeks
📌 Technical & Sentiment Snapshot
Price @ Entry: $21.88
Chart Structure:
• M30 / Daily: Bullish – above 10/50/200 EMAs
• Weekly: Mixed, but showing upward bias
• RSI: Neutral to slightly overbought
• MACD: Bullish cross on intraday; flattening on higher timeframes
Volatility Context:
• VIX up +26.9% over 5 days
• Backwardation in VIX futures
• Elevated VIX/VVIX ratio hints at further fear pricing
Headline Risk:
• Geopolitical + macroeconomic uncertainty
• Trade war tensions and surprise policy risk driving implied vol
🔽 TRADE RECOMMENDATION
Parameter Value
🔀 Direction LONG
💵 Entry Price $21.88
🛑 Stop Loss $20.14 (–8%)
🎯 Target Price $25.62 (+17%)
🧮 Size 100 shares
🏦 Risk Level ~1.5% of account
⏰ Entry Timing Market Open
📆 Hold Time 3–4 weeks
🧠 Rationale Behind the Trade
All 5 models agree on a moderately bullish short- to mid-term trend in VIX.
Momentum is supported by:
Rising geopolitical risks
Backwardated futures curve
Technical setups across intraday/daily charts
Entry point near $21.88 gives strong R/R if VIX spikes toward $25–$27 range.
⚠️ Key Risks to Watch
VIX Mean Reversion: VIX tends to drop quickly if risk subsides.
Overbought Intraday: May cause short-term pullbacks even in a bullish context.
Headline Dependency: Any peace deal, central bank surprise, or good news may instantly crush implied vol.
Liquidity Spreads: Use limit orders on open — VIX ETPs (e.g., VXX, UVXY) can see wide bid/ask gaps.
🧾 TRADE_DETAILS (JSON)
json
Copy
Edit
{
"instrument": "VIX",
"direction": "long",
"entry_price": 21.88,
"stop_loss": 20.14,
"take_profit": 25.62,
"size": 100,
"confidence": 0.70,
"entry_timing": "open"
}
💡 If VIX holds above $21.50 with momentum, this setup offers asymmetric upside. Stop placement near $20.14 helps protect against false breakouts or mean reversion traps.
NAS - ACTIVE TRADE COMMUNITY - PLEASE BRING TO THE MOONTeam, we have successfully trade both LIVE trading on UK100 short yesterday and LONG both NAS AND DOWN yesterday.
Today we are entry small portion LONG for NAS.
WILL DOUBLE LONG if market drop low at 21650-21600
Target 1 - at 21850-21875
TAKE 50-70% volume on profit and bring stop loss to BE once target 1 hit
Target 2 remaining at 21900-21950
GOOD LUCK AND LET KILL THE BEAST TOGETHER