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US 500 Index – Buyers and Sellers Continue to Battle it OutSince the high of 6101 on December 6th, the US 500 index has entered a period of choppy sideways price activity, reflecting a 2 month timeline when buyers and sellers have been in balance. This range has faked out those traders looking for a fresh series of all time highs or for moves back down to lower levels which were last seen in the middle of 2024. This sideways activity highlights where buyers of the index, found towards the lower extremes of the range around 5760/5800, while being able to halt further price weakness and push prices higher again, are unable to overcome the strength of selling pressure encountered towards the upper extremes of the range, currently located between 6100/6120. It’s here that fresh sellers materialise again and have been able to turn price action lower. It’s not like the US 500 hasn’t had some volatility drivers during this period. The Federal Reserve (Fed) have paused interest rate cuts, President Trump has initiated a series of trade tariffs on global trading partners, DeepSeek disrupted the AI party, earnings season, the list continues. However, so far nothing has managed to shape sentiment enough to see a clear trend develop. Today’s focus is likely to be on US CPI data, which is released at 1330 GMT. Traders came into the year with a sensitivity to US inflation and that hasn’t gone away, especially given last week’s fall in consumer sentiment which was driven largely by concerns around price rises over the next year. An above market expectation print in the CPI reading may be seen as a negative for the US 500 index, as it could take Fed rate cuts later in the year off the table, while an in line or lower print, could help to maintain the current status quo for price moves. Defining the Range: For the US 500 index, upper extremes of the range can potentially be defined by drawing a trendline connecting the December 6th 2024 high at 6101, with the January 24th 2025 all-time high at 6118, and extending it forward. This outlines a possible higher resistance level which currently stands at 6129. A parallel line can then be drawn using the December 20th low at 5973, which suggests 5803 may be the potential lower extreme of the current sideways range. Looking forward, while much will of course depend on future market trends and sentiment, traders may find it useful to watch how these 2 levels are defended over an important US economic data release such as today's US CPI, given that a closing break of either level is required to potentially suggest the next directional move. Upside Potential: Closes above 6129, while no guarantee it will result in a sustained phase of price strength, could be a catalyst to extend what may still be classed as a long term uptrend pattern in price. Downside Potential: A negative reaction to the US CPI data and subsequent close under the lower limits of the range at 5803, might reflect a more extended period of price weakness and possible deeper retracement of the positive uptrend pattern which has been evident since October 2022. If that were to be the case, support initially may be found at 5726, 5605 or even 5484, all of which can be seen on the chart above. The material provided here has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and as such is considered to be a marketing communication. Whilst it is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research, we will not seek to take any advantage before providing it to our clients. Pepperstone doesn’t represent that the material provided here is accurate, current or complete, and therefore shouldn’t be relied upon as such. The information, whether from a third party or not, isn’t to be considered as a recommendation; or an offer to buy or sell; or the solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any security, financial product or instrument; or to participate in any particular trading strategy. It does not take into account readers’ financial situation or investment objectives. We advise any readers of this content to seek their own advice. Without the approval of Pepperstone, reproduction or redistribution of this information isn’t permitted.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by Pepperstone
NIFTY will reach 21378 by end of April 2025!nifty..... is in 4th wave.... since wave 2 was shallow and only 38.2%, wave 4 will be deep and 61.6% as per alternation principle... 61.8% comes to 21378.... we can expect a fib. correlation between price and time... since wave 4 ends at 61.8% by price, it will also end at 61.8% by time... 61.8% by time comes on 25th April 2025. 4th wave is also an 1.272 ab=cd pattern which end st 21288 which also more or less lines up with the 61.8% level...... as per above we can expect nifty down move to stop in the zone 21288-20378... i have also drawn a channel, the bottom of which exactly lines up with our target... make no mistake.... we have a good 1600/1700 points fall in nifty..
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Nattyshotstocks
TNX Explosion IncomingI think I've made my point with my thesis on interest rates, but I will continue to beat this drum until something breaks. Something is going to break soon. The market is fighting the fed ever since they started cutting and the market is calling out Powell's rate cut nonsense. They cut by 100bps, but yields went up 100bps. This is very concerning and we've seen this before, this is going to kill equities when the time comes. Yields are screaming danger right in our faces. I've seen many bears talk about 5% and I think that is laughable. How about 8%-12% or even higher? I could go on about why I think that fundamentally, but I've already done that. Focusing on the technicals, we see that TNX had a massive breakout in 2020. The downtrend had been forming since the high in 1987, history is repeating itself as it always does. In addition to the nearly 40 year trend breakout, we also have a shorter term bull flag starting from the high in October that just broke. Heading right up into 5% and I believe it will keep on going. Flag pole target is around 8.8%, final target is the 1987 high around 10%. That's the final target for now anyway, I fear it will go much higher. I've been trying to warn folks about this all year and there's a reason for that, it's not because I hate America, it's because I love America. I'm obviously not a financial advisor, this is for education. However, it's probably not very helpful to just say the market is gonna crash with no plans or ideas to position based on that belief. Shorting is the go to, but very dangerous and somewhat greedy. I think it's at least time to close all positions using margin if you have any, trim winners and take some profit, get exposure to rising yields, get volatility exposure, get some gold, and keep larger cash reserves and savings. Avoid MSTR at all costs.
TVC:TNXLong
by AdvancedPlays
1
Is there life in the old dog yet? Thoughts on Japan...Japan, once known for its high standard of living and expensive prices, has seen a dramatic shift. Today, Japan is often praised by travellers for its affordability, with the Yen weakened by decades of financial repression. While Japan's industrial and infrastructure standards remain high, its citizens are becoming poorer. The average monthly income has fallen sharply from $4,000 in 2012 to just $2,240, putting it on a par with countries such as Spain. Japan's current economic policies, particularly its refusal to raise interest rates despite inflation remaining above the 2% target for over 31 months, are worrying enough. The Bank of Japan's reluctance to adjust interest rates due to Japan's high level of government debt has kept the key interest rate at just 0.25%. As a result, Japanese savers have turned to foreign currency investments, further weakening the Yen. Currency depreciation has never led to greater competitiveness or long-term prosperity, and countries such as Argentina and Italy are examples of where such policies have failed to deliver the desired results. In contrast, countries such as Singapore, Norway and Switzerland remain at the top of global income rankings. We could also draw parallels with Germany's own departure from the "hard currency" club, as it and the wider Eurozone follow Japan's economic model. Questions on my mind: - Given Japan's current economic environment, how do we view on the long-term stability of the Yen? - With Japanese wages stagnating, do we see opportunities in Japanese equities or sectors that could benefit from a weaker currency? - How might Japan's refusal to raise interest rates affect foreign investment in the country over the next few years? - Do you think the trend of low interest rates and currency depreciation will continue in the Eurozone and how might that affect global markets? - In a scenario where Japan continues on this economic path, what other regions or emerging markets might offer better investment opportunities in comparison?
TVC:NI225
by ReallyMe
SENSEX S/R for 12/2/25Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
BSE:SENSEX
by zenthosh
BANK NIFTY S/R for 12/2/25Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:BANKNIFTY
by zenthosh
NIFTY S/R for 13/2/25Support and Resistance Levels: Support Levels: These are price points (green line/shade) where a downward trend may be halted due to a concentration of buying interest. Imagine them as a safety net where buyers step in, preventing further decline. Resistance Levels: Conversely, resistance levels (red line/shade) are where upward trends might stall due to increased selling interest. They act like a ceiling where sellers come in to push prices down. Breakouts: Bullish Breakout: When the price moves above resistance, it often indicates strong buying interest and the potential for a continued uptrend. Traders may view this as a signal to buy or hold. Bearish Breakout: When the price falls below support, it can signal strong selling interest and the potential for a continued downtrend. Traders might see this as a cue to sell or avoid buying. 20 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): Above 20 EMA(50 EMA): If the stock price is above the 20 EMA, it suggests a potential uptrend or bullish momentum. Below 20 EMA: If the stock price is below the 20 EMA, it indicates a potential downtrend or bearish momentum. Trendline: A trendline is a straight line drawn on a chart to represent the general direction of a data point set. Uptrend Line: Drawn by connecting the lows in an upward trend. Indicates that the price is moving higher over time. Acts as a support level, where prices tend to bounce upward. Downtrend Line: Drawn by connecting the highs in a downward trend. Indicates that the price is moving lower over time. It acts as a resistance level, where prices tend to drop. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered. The information provided here is for learning purposes only and should not be interpreted as financial advice. Consider the broader market context and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
NSE:NIFTY
by zenthosh
Bad CPI, Perfect Setup Opportunity for the S&P500Today’s CPI was really bad: 3% vs. 2.9%. Bad for markets, good for the Dollar, and everything got slapped - S&P 500 included. But honestly, moments like this are often where the magic happens. Zoom in, and you’ll notice that the Monday Low is still sitting there untouched. In a few minutes, the New York Stock Exchange opens. What am I hoping for? A sweep of that Low, followed by a quick reversal and a push to the upside. On the 1-hour chart, the RSI is already in oversold territory. A sell-off at the open would be the perfect entry, aiming for a 1:3 risk-reward ratio. If the market plays along, this could get real interesting real fast. 🔹 Asset: S&P 500 🔹 Timeframe: 1H 🔹 Entry: 5974.60 🔹 Stop: 5936.90 🔹 Target(s): 6085.86
FX:SPX500Long
by stromm
DXY: Dollar Surges Amid Inflation Pressures! Hi Traders Since the CPI came in higher than expected (0.5% vs 0.3%), this signals continued inflationary pressures, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts or even consider raising them if inflation continues to rise. The dollar could gain strength 💪 due to expectations that the Fed will remain hawkish. Markets may experience significant volatility ⚠️, especially in dollar pairs and U.S. indices.
TVC:DXYEducation
by hamidTrader21
US30: A Bearish OutlookUS30: A Bearish Outlook On Friday, the US30 index moved down following President Trump's announcement to Republicans that he planned to issue reciprocal tariffs as soon as Friday. After the news, US30 experienced an aggressive decline. Today, the market is in correction mode, and given that President Trump mentioned to reporters on Sunday that more tariffs are coming, the odds are that US30 could move down again. He stated that he will announce 25% tariffs on all imports of steel and aluminum on Monday or Tuesday. This could push US30 down further, as indicated in the chart. However, remember that this move is very risky and is closely related to President Trump's speculation. You may find more details in the chart! Thank you and Good Luck! ❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CAPITALCOM:US30Short
by KlejdiCuni
4
Prepere yourself for buying opportunities ... So there we are ... CPI little bit higher than exceptating , powel clearly talks about monetary policy and Trump goin wild with tarrifs ... what to except in this macro&political economic driven environment ? I don't think it will grow to extreme values ​​now. Rather, there will be some more carving and from a short-term perspective an opportunity to buy at a good price ... Well, it is very important, at least for me in this environment of a trade war combined with a period when historically the Fed has raised rates and not lowered them as many expect. It is important to take profits and hold losses short and uncompromisingly exit losing positions. The year 2025 will be full of opportunities, which goes hand in hand with pain. What is heaven for one guy is hell for another guy. I am a fan of everyone who tries to make money in this environment and I hope to rob you of your money. Because that is what the market is about. Good luck and enjoy your game
TVC:VIX
by STLMfx
1
ASX 200 Hits New High – Is the Rally Sustainable?The ASX 200 is climbing as Australian earnings exceed expectations and the country appears to be exempt from Trump’s new 25% import tax on aluminum and steel. In this video, we’ll discuss how to trade this, key target levels, and the trend-defining level. This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
THINKMARKETS:AUS200Long
by ThinkMarkets
Sideways Markets? Heres why Im still getting paidSideways Market? Here’s Why I’m Still Getting Paid | SPX Market Analysis 12 Feb 2025 The markets may be moving like molasses, but that’s no problem when you’re getting paid to wait. While others are watching charts in frustration, our Theta decay is quietly dripping profits into our accounts. No rush, no panic—just letting the market do its thing while we collect. Let’s break it down… --- SPX Deeper Dive Analysis: 📉 Markets Are Moving Sideways—And That’s OK SPX is stuck in a range, drifting aimlessly while traders wait for direction. But unlike those who need a big breakout to make money, we’re already profiting while standing still. 💰 Theta Decay – The Power of Getting Paid to Wait While the market meanders, options lose value That lost value turns into profits for our income trades Instead of hoping for a massive move, we collect steady gains 📌 The Current Market View We still anticipate a move from the upper range to the lower range 📉 No need to force trades—our edge is patience If SPX moves, great. If not, we still win 🔑 Why Income Trading Wins in a Sideways Market Unlike traditional trading methods where: ❌ You need a strong directional move to profit ❌ You rely on timing the market perfectly ❌ You risk getting stopped out too soon We simply: ✅ Let Theta decay work in our favour ✅ Profit even when the market goes nowhere ✅ Have time on our side—no need for constant action 📌 Final Takeaway? The market may be stuck, but profits aren’t. Theta is working, our positions are intact, and there’s no stress—just steady gains. --- Fun Fact: 📢 Did you know? The S&P 500 has spent nearly 80% of its time trading sideways rather than trending up or down. 💡 The Lesson? The market isn’t always moving—but smart traders don’t need it to. That’s why income trading thrives when others struggle.
SP:SPXShort
by MrPhilNewton