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Congress passes H.R 1 into law. About the new bill.🔵 In what's been an eventful last few weeks congress passed H.R 1 which is essentially Trump's 900 page mega bill Act. Both Democrats and Republicans ultimately united against each other over the bill with Vice President Vance casing the tiebreaking vote giving Senate Republican's the large legislative victory. 🔵 To note is that independent-minded Republican Lisa Murkowski, senator of Alaska had some concerns with the bill before GOP negotiators we're able to acquire her vote for the 50-50 votes. Murkowski's primary issue was with the legislation's changes to Medicaid and federal food assistance funding which she was concerned would hurt her home state understandably. Republican's originally tried to sway her vote by adding language to shield Alaska from the full effect of the legislation's Medicaid and SNAP cuts. 🔵 Parliament opposed that as it violated the Byrd Rule which is there to determine the legislation that can go into a budget reconciliation package as well as passing with only GOP votes. Least to say the amendment was reworked many times in order for the waivers for the SNAP funding cuts to apply more broadly than just Alaska and Hawaii. Parliament rejected the prior amendment and language which targeted just the two states understandably. 🔵 With the rework the new SNAP provisions are planned to reduce food assistance funding more slowly in about 10 states with the number ultimately being decided by a formula and based on the error rate in delivering food assistance benefits in a year. After an arduous process the amendment was passed and Republican's secured the vote with Murkowski saying it was an agonizing process. 🔵 When speaking with reporters afterwards Murkowski noted that the process was stressful with them operating under an artificial timeline in reference to the pressure Trump put on the Senate to pass the bill. 🔵 Her concern was as follows: “Rather than taking the deliberative approach to good legislating, we rushed to get a product out. This is important. I want to make sure that we’re able to keep in place the tax cuts from the 2017 Jobs Act,” said Murkowski when asked about her support for the bill and why it was hard for her to come around to giving her vote. 🔵 “I struggled mightily with the impact on the most vulnerable in this country when you look to the Medicaid and the SNAP provisions,” said Murkowski. This point highlights just how the effort to push the bill through was met with haste and pressure notably. 🔵 The bill itself is projected to add $2.8 trillion to the federal deficit by 2034. Main reason for that would be thanks to a reduction in revenues as well as interest cost which could have the deficit rise by a potential $5 trillion if some temporary provisions become permanent. Interest payments on the national debt are also expected to increase significantly by 2034. 🔵It should be noted that these numbers and estimates are based on a "current law" baseline and are largely thanks to tax cuts in the bill with Economist having differing opinions on the economic impact of the bill. Time will tell us how estimates go but least to say this is a large turnaround from what many we're expecting with even DOGE's Elon Musk opposing the Bill and forming a new party in strong opposition. 🔵 The tax and spending bill will see spending increase and phase in a cut to Medicaid of an estimated $1 trillion over the next decade with the CBO projecting roughly 11.8 million more American's t hat would become uninsured within the next 10 years compared to the current law. This could lead to many losing healthcare services due to medical cost with states as well likely needing to adjust their own programs and having to take on a larger share of the cost whether that means reducing services or even closing some facilities. 🔵 The bill has many key changes but in summary it solidifies many tax breaks from Trump's first term with an estimated $4.5 trillion in tax cuts alongside tax deductions on tips, overtime and auto loans with deductions for adults that make under $75,000 and a boost to the child tax credit from $2,000 to $2,200 though millions of families at lower income levels would still not receive the full credit as one of the credit's, requirements is a minimum earned income of $2,500. In 2022 alone an estimated 18 million children under age 17 (26 of all children) were ineligible for the full child Tax credit because the family income was not high enough as reported by Columbia University's Center on Poverty and Social Policy. 🔵 To say in the least the new bill has many implications for the country and the next few months and years will definitely represent those changes and how the country shifts and adjusts to this with many having differing opinions understandably. I'll definitely keep you guys posted through it all but definitely a lot to see so much happen so quick and only time will tell and show us just how things play out simply put. The market itself is still continuing within this ascending channel, especially since we got that convergence with the 200 EMA and broke that $6,130 resistance. $6,300 is what I'm expecting resistance to hit the strongest so definitely gonna keep an eye there as traders process the news and changes. 🔵 Have to go but grateful as always for the support, definitely a long idea here but wanted to focus on some important points though the bill itself has so many changes it's hard to go over every one but you get the point. This is a big changes and we'll definitely see things shift a lot over the next few months and years and as always we'll keep posted with things. Thanks as always and all the best. Best regards, ~ Rock'
SP:SPX
by Rocksorgate
1
DowJones bullish continuation supported at 44000Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 45000 Resistance Level 2: 45445 Resistance Level 3: 46000 Support Level 1: 44000 Support Level 2: 43700 Support Level 3: 43430 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US30
by TradeNation
S&P500 Bullish continuation developing close to ATHUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio is meeting Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov today at an ASEAN summit, as tensions remain high over the war in Ukraine. President Trump has criticized Putin and pledged more weapons for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian allies are meeting in Rome to plan postwar rebuilding. Trump also announced new tariff plans—50% on Brazil and 20% on the Philippines, though further talks are expected. He said a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas could be close, possibly within weeks. In business news, X CEO Linda Yaccarino is stepping down, Meta faces a competition warning in France, and Wall Street banks are preparing financing for a $4.25 billion Boots buyout. Nvidia became the first company ever to hit a $4 trillion market value, boosted by strong investor demand. US Equity Outlook: Markets may trade mixed. Nvidia’s historic surge could lift tech stocks, but geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty may limit gains. Investors will watch for more updates on tariffs and global talks. Key Support and Resistance Levels Resistance Level 1: 6290 Resistance Level 2: 6340 Resistance Level 3: 6400 Support Level 1: 6180 Support Level 2: 6120 Support Level 3: 6070 This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be viewed as any form of recommendation as to a particular course of action or as investment advice. It is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction. Opinions, estimates and assumptions expressed herein are made as of the date of this communication and are subject to change without notice. This communication has been prepared based upon information, including market prices, data and other information, believed to be reliable; however, Trade Nation does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. All market prices and market data contained in or attached to this communication are indicative and subject to change without notice.
TRADENATION:US500
by TradeNation
US30 Consolidates Below Resistance – Tariff Risks LoomUS30 – Market Overview The price is currently consolidating within the range of 44490 to 44180, awaiting a breakout to determine the next directional move. Bearish Scenario: As long as the price trades below 44490, we expect bearish volatility to retest 44180. A confirmed 1H close below 44180 would open the path toward 43960 and 43760. Bullish Scenario: If the price closes above 44490, it will likely trigger a bullish move toward 44750, with potential extension to 44970 ATH and beyond. Note: Market sentiment remains sensitive to tariff-related developments, which may drive sharp moves in either direction. Pivot Level: 44490 Support: 44180, 43960, 43770 Resistance: 44750, 44960, 45100
OANDA:US30USDShort
by SroshMayi
USNAS100 Bullish Ahead of NVIDIA Milestone – 23010 in SightUSNAS100 – Outlook The index continues its bullish momentum, supported by strong tech performance — notably NVIDIA surpassing a $4 trillion market cap. As long as the price holds above 22880, the trend remains bullish toward: 23010 Then extended targets near 23170 However, a 1H close below 22815 would signal weakness, potentially opening the way for a retracement toward: 22705 And 22615, especially if tariff tensions escalate. Resistance: 23010, 23170 Support: 22815, 22705, 22615
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by SroshMayi
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CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by David_Perk
5
DXY may rebound significantly soonDXY Likely to Rebound Significantly Soon Technical Perspective: DXY recently broke below its previous low, forming a lower low, with both EMAs signaling a downtrend. However, the price has now reached a 14-year-old long-term ascending trendline support , which reflects the strength and effectiveness of this tool. So, we can expect a reaction at this line. Additionally, the RSI has entered the oversold zone (for the third time) and a Bullish Divergence has formed, supporting the possibility of a rebound in DXY in the near term. However, any rebound may only be short-lived due to the recent strong bearish momentum and the steepness of the downtrend. A pullback following the rebound may occur, possibly retesting the ascending trendline before a more sustained trend reversal can take place (unless the price breaks below the trendline, which would indicate a bearish continuation following the prevailing downtrend). The rebound, if it happens here, can target around the psychological level near 100 ±1 before pulling back again, which, if the pullback in the next shot does not result in a new low, it could signal the end of the downtrend, though this may take some time to materialize. (Please do not forget that we are looking at a weekly timeframe where each leg may take weeks or even months) Hence, this level may mark the bottom of the current DXY downcycle or, at the very least, trigger a significant rebound. Fundamental Perspective: The key factor behind recent US dollar weakness has been President Trump's tariff policies, which have raised concerns over US assets. However, negotiations with major trade partners have been progressing, and many are nearing resolution. This is helping reduce investor concerns over a potential disruption to the global economic system. The market appears to have passed its peak panic phase. Thus, further downside surprises are unlikely, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently remarked, the reciprocal tariffs announced are currently at the highest level. Over time, markets are expected to start pricing out the concerns, which could lead to a rebound in the US dollar. An overlooked risk is the sizable US government bond maturities from June to August 2025, which may strain rollover demand. A smooth passage of this period could restore dollar confidence and support DXY. (This suggests that the reversal may take 1–3 months before a clear uptrend emerges.) Some may argue that potential Fed rate cuts may pressure the dollar, but with two cuts largely priced in, the impact could be limited. A rebound may follow as markets shift from "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Finally, please remember that President Trump’s tariff policies are aimed at reducing the US trade deficit—an objective that is likely to be met. As the effects of tariffs start to show in trade balance data by Q4 or beyond, confidence in the US dollar could return, accelerating DXY's recovery momentum. Call for Action: This zone presents potential for accumulating positions due to a potential reversal, for both short-term and long-term investors, with the added advantage of a high risk-reward ratio. Analysis by: Krisada Yoonaisil, Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by KrisadaYoonaisil
1
SPX500 Eyes New ATH – Key Levels in PlaySPX500 – Overview The index remains under bullish pressure, with potential to record a new all-time high (ATH). As long as the price holds above 6246, the bullish trend is likely to continue toward 6282. A confirmed 1H close above 6287 could trigger further upside toward 6310 and 6341. However, a break below 6223 would signal bearish momentum, opening the path toward 6195 and 6143. Pivot Line: 6282 Resistance: 6310, 6341 Support: 6246, 6223, 6195
OANDA:SPX500USDLong
by SroshMayi