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CNQ | Long Setup | Energy Value Play | (May 2025)CNQ | Long Setup | High Dividend + Energy Value Play | (May 2025) 1️⃣ Short Insight Summary: Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) offers strong energy exposure with solid dividends, but it's currently trading in a downward channel. I'm watching for signs of a reversal and a potential long setup forming off a W-pattern and VWAP reaction. 2️⃣ Trade Parameters: Bias: Long (with caution) Entry: Around VWAP zone ($40–$41), inside a possible W-formation Stop Loss: Below $37 TP1: $43 TP2: $46.84 TP3: $48 TP4: $50 Partial Exits: Recommended at VWAP and $43 zone; potential to compound if structure confirms 3️⃣ Key Notes: ✅ CNQ operates across oil sands, refining, exploration, and production — with assets across Canada, U.S., and Australia ✅ Revenue sits around $35B CAD, with net income of $6.1B and annual cash flow around SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:8B ✅ Debt is high ( FWB:20B ), but manageable given strong cash generation and dividend coverage ✅ Dividend yield is 5.9%, which makes CNQ attractive to long-term investors despite debt concerns ✅ PE ratio is favorable at 7.95, suggesting potential value in energy sector ❌ Earnings and revenue growth are projected to slow slightly by 2025–26, so caution is warranted 4️⃣ Optional Follow-up Note: I’ll continue monitoring for confirmation of the W-formation and channel breakout. If the VWAP area holds, I may consider compounding the position. Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. Disclaimer: This is not a financial advise. Always conduct your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
TSX:CNQLong
by Risk_Adj_Return
Canopy Growth Corporation – High-Risk, High-Reward SpeculationThe stock of Canopy Growth Corporation experienced an unprecedented rally following its initial public offering (IPO). After a brief correction phase, the share price surged from CAD 0.25 to an all-time high of CAD 744.50 within four and a half years — an increase of over 244,000%. A sharp decline followed, interrupted by a temporary rebound that reached a new record high of CAD 766.80. This movement marked the beginning of a massive correction phase during which the stock dropped to CAD 1.09 — a loss of more than 99% from its peak. At the low point of this move, a five-wave impulse structure emerged for the first time, which, according to Elliott Wave Theory, could indicate the potential end of the larger corrective Wave 2. The following analysis takes a closer look at this initial impulse, including the resulting price development and potential entry zones for speculative investors. The analysis is based on Elliott Wave Theory and reflects a subjective market interpretation. The corresponding wave count can be found in the attached chart. Market Structure According to Elliott Wave Theory On April 9, 2025, Canopy's stock marked the low of the overarching Wave 2 at CAD 1.09. By April 25, 2025, a complete five-wave impulse had developed, ending at CAD 2.26. Since then, the price has been undergoing a corrective Wave 2. This correction is unfolding in a classic A-B-C pattern with an internal 3-3-5 structure. Currently, the final downward movement — Wave C — is in progress, within which the corrective, slightly upward-directed Wave 4 is developing. Wave 4 is expected to conclude at one of the following Fibonacci retracement levels of the preceding Wave 3: • 0.214 at CAD 1.85 • 0.382 at CAD 1.94 • 0.500 at CAD 1.99 The completion of Wave 4 is anticipated within this price range (CAD 1.85 – 1.99). This should be followed by the final Wave 5 within Wave C. A specific price target for Wave 5 can only be determined once Wave 4 is fully formed. However, based on the larger Wave 1, a target zone for the end of the corrective Wave 2 can already be projected. Relevant retracement levels include: • 0.618 at CAD 1.54 • 0.786 at CAD 1.34 • 0.887 at CAD 1.22 Given the relatively small market capitalization of currently around CAD 350 million, a test of the lower retracement levels at CAD 1.34 or even CAD 1.22 seems likely. Nevertheless, a premature reversal from CAD 1.54 is also possible. Conclusion: Speculative Accumulation Zone and Price Targets From a technical standpoint, the accumulation zone of interest for Canopy Growth lies between CAD 1.54 and CAD 1.22. Entering this range could represent a speculative opportunity with a high risk-reward ratio. Following the completion of Wave 2, an upward-directed Wave 3 could aim for a minimum price target of CAD 2.99. Further extensions to CAD 3.44 or even CAD 4.16 are conceivable. Starting from the 0.618 retracement level at CAD 1.54, even the minimum target would represent a potential price gain of +94.5%. Should this structure confirm itself in the larger time frame and develop into a broader five-wave impulse, long-term price targets in the range of CAD 1,240 to CAD 2,007 could be reached. This would imply a price increase of over 80,000% to 130,000% from the CAD 1.54 level. However, such a development would likely take several years. Risk Disclaimer Canopy Growth Corporation stock remains a highly volatile speculative investment. Given the extreme fluctuations and currently weak fundamental metrics, alongside the potential for extraordinary returns, there is always a corresponding risk of total loss. Investors should be fully aware of these risks and choose an appropriately sized position. ______________________________________________________________________ 📌 Quick Summary – Canopy Growth (CGC) 🚀 Massive rally from CAD 0.25 → 766.80 (+244,000%), followed by >99% crash 📉 Current price structure suggests potential bottoming at CAD 1.09 🔁 Corrective Wave 2 (ABC structure) in progress — nearing final Wave C 🎯 Final Wave 2 target zone: • CAD 1.54 (0.618 Fib) • CAD 1.34 (0.786 Fib) • CAD 1.22 (0.887 Fib) 📈 Speculative Buy Zone: CAD 1.22 – 1.54 ✅ 💡 Minimum Target (Wave 3): CAD 2.99 (+94.5% from CAD 1.54) 🚀 Extended Targets: CAD 3.44 – 4.16 🌌 Long-Term Potential (if macro impulse confirms): CAD 1,240 – 2,007 (+80,000% to +130,000%) ⚠️ Risk Note: Highly speculative, extreme volatility, total loss possible. Trade with discipline & proper sizing.
TSX:WEEDLong
by PsychoAlien
1
Surge Energy (SGY) Elliott Wave Outlook26/04/25 SGY Update I’ve been long Surge Energy since Jan 24. Price did move higher initially following my entry but has since ground lower in what looks like an ending diagonal pattern in red C of a larger ABC zig zag correction. There is RSI divergence on the weekly time frame which helps the case that SGY could be bottoming, but that will of course be effected by what the price of oil does. Any further downside on SGY I will be looking at the yellow zone which contains the 786 retracement at $3.9, measured move target of the red A wave at $3.28 & 886 retracement at $2.64. There is an ending diagonal invalidation level at $3.2, if this is tagged, I will need to adjust the current count. The completion of Red C will complete the (X) wave of the higher degree (W)(X)(Y) in yellow, from these levels the (Y) wave target will be $16-$17.
TSX:SGYLong
by figureofspeech
Fortune MineralsThere are multiple technical theories about why FT will break out. OBV is climbing, and I have postulated and proven that OBV is a leading indicator. Every other indicator is rear-ward looking. Looking out the back mirror. That includes moving averages. The price is spending too much time above the .786 “macro bear fib”, and this cannot stand. A breakout is inevitable. There, we have OBV pointing to a breakout, and we have the price near the 1-level bear fib. The only conclusion is a breakout
TSX:FTLong
by Shammus01
Fortune MineralsFor those that love volatility like moths love flames, I present to you Fortune Minerals. If you know a more volatile stock, please let me know. I own well over 5M shares, and I’m basically flat in price, and long term. This party is just starting. I’ve been in and out of FT for 15 years. We’re about to witness the first real bullish pump, which prints a higher swing high, and it’s going to be glorious. I know I chart FT too much, but I have a quarter million dollar position, so can you blame me? 1.86m shares traded today. It’s game on.
TSX:FTLong
by Shammus01
Canopy Growth: Some Room Left...WEED has continued to move downward within the magenta Target Zone between C$2.96 and C$0.90, and it is now trading in the lower quarter of this range. Currently, the stock should be working on a blue five-wave move and should soon reach the low of wave (v), thus completing this structure and also the large green wave . Primarily, we still grant the stock some more room to fully utilize the Target Zone, but a trend reversal should be initiated with the low. Afterward, the high from April 29, 2024, at C$20.50 should be exceeded during the turquoise wave 1.
TSX:WEED
by MarketIntel
3
AC for you hangers or bottom feedersCritical Price Levels Updated Key Technical Points Current Price: C$13.96 Point of Control (POC): C$18.50 (Major volume node) Line in Sand: C$19.50 Support: C$12.80 Volume Profile Significance POC at C$18.50 shows highest traded volume Large visual spike confirms strong historical interest Only C$1.00 gap between POC and Line in Sand (C$18.50 → C$19.50) Validates our overall bullish thesis Enhanced Technical Framework Key Levels Hierarchy Line in Sand: C$19.50 (Ultimate resistance) POC: C$18.50 (High volume node/psychological level) Current Price: C$13.96 Support: C$12.80 Price Targets Updated To POC: C$4.54 (32.5% upside) To Line in Sand: C$5.54 (39.7% upside) Natural resistance expected at POC (C$18.50) Trading Strategy Refinement Position Management Primary target: C$18.50 (POC) Ultimate target: C$19.50 (Line in Sand) Suggested scaling plan: First scale: C$16.00 Second scale: C$18.50 (POC) Final portion: C$19.50 Volume Profile Implications High volume at C$18.50 suggests strong historical reference Expect initial resistance at POC Volume spike validates price memory at this level Risk/Reward Analysis Updated Measured Moves Risk (to support): C$1.16 Reward to POC: C$4.54 Additional reward to Line in Sand: C$1.00 R/R ratio to POC: ~3.9:1 Total R/R ratio: ~4.8:1 Key Observations Technical Confluence POC (C$18.50) near Line in Sand (C$19.50) Volume profile validates our technical levels Strong historical volume supports target zones Strategic Implications Volume profile adds confidence to upside targets POC provides additional reference for position management Natural scaling point at high-volume node (C$18.50) This volume profile analysis with POC at C$18.50 provides strong validation of our technical framework and adds confidence to our upside targets. The proximity of the POC to our Line in Sand suggests significant historical price acceptance near our ultimate target, strengthening our technical thesis.
TSX:AC
by Prober7314
1
Uber Max Analysis using AI Monica backtestedMEG.TO Trading Methodology 🎯 1. The Line in the Sand (LITS) System Current LITS: C$27.89 Purpose: Acts as our binary decision maker Rule: Only trade bullish above, bearish/avoid below Current Status: Trading at C$23.09 (BELOW line by -17.2%) 2. Entry Criteria Must be ABOVE C$27.89 Volume confirmation required Prefer low IV environments (<30% IV Rank) Look for consolidation patterns or clear trend 3. Options Strategy Preferences ATM Strikes: Primary focus due to higher Vega Delta Target: Minimum 0.30 delta Position Sizing: Larger above LITS Small/No positions below LITS 4. Risk Management Rules Hard Stop: Below Line in the Sand Position Exit: Full exit when price breaks below C$27.89 Scale out at technical resistance Options Specific: No naked puts below LITS Define risk on all positions Roll or close at 21 DTE 5. Current Market Context 52-Week Range: C$19.68 - C$34.00 Trading Channel: C$22.54 - C$25.06 Status: Bearish (Below LITS) Action Required: NO new bullish positions 6. Recovery Requirements Reclaim C$27.89 Hold above for 2-3 sessions Show volume confirmation Develop clear base pattern 7. Key Principles Discipline over emotion System rules are non-negotiable Capital preservation first Wait for setup, don't chase This methodology has kept us out of trouble during the recent decline from C$34 to C$23.09, demonstrating its effectiveness in capital preservation. Remember: The best trade is often no trade when conditions aren't met.
TSX:MEG
by Prober7314
NPI (northland power) longHey guys! This setup looks too good to be true. I just bought some spot shares because this weekly bullish divergence is huge and when it does play out, this 7% dividend stock will rally and be a great hold for long term investors. This RSI divergence shows momentum trying to change, long term holders buying from short sellers and panic sellers. Also we can clearly see 5 waves down from the top, totaling a 69%ish drop from ATH. In my opinion, there is a high likelihood that 16.16$ CAD is the bottom for this stock.
TSX:NPILong
by cicatrace