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Fibonacchi SSSFibonacci retracement with recent high and lows The percentage retracements identify possible support or resistance areas, 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, 100%. Applying these percentages to the difference between the high and low price for the period selected creates a set of price objectives. Depending on the direction of the market, up or down, prices will often retrace a significant portion of the previous trend before resuming the move in the original direction. These countertrend moves tend to fall into certain parameters, which are often the Fibonacci Retracement levels.
SSE:600196
by sophiesubedi13
1
How to read the message side? ——My road as a financial analystEvery day, there are many fake articles that spread different positions, both true and exaggerated. In order to judge valuable information from them, we need to have certain critical thinking. Then I will share three dimensions for your reference. In the period when Kweichow Moutai was heavily bearish by market opinion, I saw an article talking about the risks of Kweichow Moutai, and many views in the article could not withstand scrutiny. Examples are as follows: (1) Confusion of concepts. The article points out that Kweichow Moutai's diversified strategy of entering real estate, airport, beer and wine has huge risks, and I fully agree with it. However, these investment projects are affiliated with Moutai Group and have nothing to do with the joint-stock company. Generally speaking, "Kweichow Moutai" refers to the listed joint-stock company, and the holding group company is called "Moutai Group". Kweichow Moutai only produces liquor, not other industries. Obviously, the author confused Moutai Group with Kweichow Moutai. (2) Logic error. I have a different opinion on the viewpoint of "unreasonable high price caused by monopoly damages the interests of consumers" in the section of "Prominent abuses of industry monopoly". Maotai is not daily necessities, and monopoly is market monopoly and not administrative monopoly. There are dozens of well-known baijiu brands, but the government doesn't force people to buy Maotai or restrict them from buying other brands. The price of Moutai liquor is determined by the market. If manufacturers are willing to sell and consumers are willing to buy, the price is not "unreasonable". As long as manufacturers do not shoddy or use other fraudulent means, there is no "damage to the interests of consumers" said. (3) Subjective imagination. "Shortening the brewing time of baijiu is a way to quickly increase production," reads the section on "Increasing the risk of quality degradation." I think it's subjective to make such an assumption without evidence or an adequate chain of clues. Part from Why I Gave up technology Analysis
SSE:600519Short
by Haoge
5
HOW-TO use three turnover musketeers #1 : L5 HSL TrendThe market decides how much profit to give you, and you can decide how much to lose! ---- Linda Bradford Risk Recently, I have concentrated on the time to summarize and optimize the three tools for turnover: turnover trend, turnover oscillator, and turnover supply and demand; as explained in advance, these three indicators are only suitable for stocks in the A-share market. In TradingView Errors may be reported for other targets. It is planned to introduce their usage in three articles. For those who are not familiar with this indicator, I will briefly introduce the concepts of turnover and turnover in this first article. Change of hands refers to the transaction in which shares are transferred from Party A to Party B. Turnover rate: refers to the ratio of the trading volume in a certain period of time to the total number of outstanding shares of the stock, which is one of the indicators reflecting the liquidity of the stock. It should be noted here that it must be divided by the circulating market, because the circulating market is real and can be circulated, and it is a bargaining chip that retail investors and main players can buy and sell, so the ruling is more representative. The turnover rate (HSL) is used for market research and judgment to help traders track the activity of individual stocks. Generally, the higher the turnover rate of a stock, the more active the stock is; otherwise, the more sluggish the stock is, The less the market pursuers: when the daily turnover rate is less than 1%, it is called absolute land volume. 1%-3% is called land volume or low volume, 3%-5% is called slightly active, 5%-8% is called volume, 8%-10% is heavy volume, 10%-25% is huge volume, 25 % or more is abnormal transaction. 1. Land volume or downturn indicates that the transaction is relatively inactive; the stock price will generally maintain the original running trend, mostly consolidating or falling, except for the stocks with high control; 2. A little activity and volume indicate that the transaction is active; 3. Heavy volume, huge volume and abnormal transaction indicate that the transaction is warm; if it occurs at a low level, it is likely to be the main purchase; if it occurs at a high level, it is likely to be the main shipment. There is also a concept of real turnover: in a stock, individual stocks held by controlling shareholders will not be easily traded. We believe that these chips are basically unchanged, and individual stocks held by strategic investors will not Easy to buy and sell, unless there is a larger profit, so this part of the chips is also considered unmoved. Therefore, the real circulating market is the circulating chips displayed on the software minus the stocks held by controlling shareholders and strategic investors. In this way, the turnover rate and willingness to buy and sell can be more realistically reflected. Therefore, whether the turnover rate or the real turnover rate needs to be judged according to its absolute value. In addition, the turnover rate alone is not comprehensive enough. It is usually necessary to combine the K-line to understand the meaning of the market. The two are complementary. The reduction or enlargement of the turnover rate is of great significance for identifying the candlestick chart. If you don't look at the turnover rate, you can't distinguish the strength of the main force and whether it is really a stock. It cannot effectively follow the main force of the market to make money. Combining the turnover rate with the stock price trend can make a more accurate prediction and judgment on the future stock price. If the turnover rate is high for a long time and within a certain price, it means that the amount of capital in and out is large, and the main capital is sufficient, so that the individual stocks are operable, but if the turnover rate suddenly increases in a very short period of time, such as within a day or two, After that, it suddenly calmed down. This situation is often that after the main players in the market have put out most of their chips, in order to sell out all the remaining chips in their hands, they deliberately use this very small amount of chips to fight against and create the illusion of active trading volume. , and let inexperienced traders follow suit, so that the main force can get rid of the remaining chips smoothly, which will be followed by waves of slumps. A high turnover rate can indicate that there is an inflow of funds or an outflow of funds. Therefore, the turnover rate is of great significance in judging the stock market. Only from the long-term K-line chart can we see the in and out process of the main market forces. When the inflow and outflow process of market capital can be seen, the relative level of stock price can be identified. When the main force enters the market, the turnover rate is high and the stock price is low, indicating that there is capital inflow; when the main force is shipped, the turnover rate is high and the stock price is high, and there is capital outflow. The turnover rate trend is the simplest of the three indicators, including two parts, the turnover rate bars marked with different colors and the fast and slow moving averages of the turnover rate. The default parameters are 5 and 10. This parameter is mainly used for the daily market, and you can also configure other values ​​that are more reasonable in the settings. The golden cross and the dead cross of the fast line (red) and slow line (green) of the turnover rate indicate the trend of the turnover rate, but note that this is not the price. It has rich market meaning and does not have a price orientation. It also needs to be judged with the K-line price. For the turnover bars, there is a percentage on each bar, which is the current day's turnover value, accurate to one decimal place. The color of the bars is a color designation that I always use to provide an illustration of the relationship between the bar combinations in addition to the absolute value of turnover. The colored turnover bars have 6 colors and 5 meanings. Because, the cyan/emerald color is NA, that is, there is no special meaning. 1. Buying and changing hands - a large number of changes, a large price range (the range from the highest price to the lowest price), the positive line (red), the typical K-line pattern is a large positive line with a large number; 2. Selling and changing hands - a large number of hand-changing, a large price range from the highest price to the lowest price), Yinxian (white), the typical K-line pattern is a large Yinxian with a large number; 3. Huge tug-of-saw - a lot of changes, small price range (green), star line, small yin and small yang, with a large amount, the opening and closing prices are relatively close, the typical K-line pattern is a huge amount of doji; 4. The amount of land - the amount of land or changing hands is sluggish (yellow), the amount of shrinkage, the typical K line is the amount of small yang and small yin line; 5. Buy and sell changing hands plus a huge number of hand-changing saws - meet the above 2 conditions (magenta) at the same time. The range of the highest price and the lowest price is large, the range of opening and closing prices is small, and there is a large number of hand changes, that is, a large number with a long upper shadow or a long lower shadow. The typical K line is a large real body with upper and lower shadows. Mostly. 6. In the absence of these special turnover signals, the bar color is cyan or emerald green. Buying and changing hands: buying and changing hands can reach a climax Buying and changing hands usually occurs in: • The beginning of an uptrend (the main force aggressively builds positions and grabs chips); • The end of the trend (primary pull-ups, retail pick-ups), and; • Pullback during a downtrend (main force pulls back to sell, shorts replenish, longs bottom). The beginning of an uptrend is almost always marked by the appearance of buying and selling. This shows that the main force is eager to build positions and grab chips, and a large number of incremental funds enter the market and quickly raise prices. An effective breakthrough should be more bullish power leading to a positive line, but occasionally the K line behind the buying tide will test whether the lowest price of the K line corresponding to the buying tide can support it. If there is no support, it is the short side offside, and you can consider stop loss and exit. The wave of buying and changing hands (red) at the top of the market is also characterized by the fact that it usually coexists with a huge amount of seesaw (green, long-short competition) or land volume (yellow, buyers are trying their best). A change in trend usually takes a while to develop, so don't get coaxed out too soon - wait for the market to become exhausted (divergence) before taking action. A useful signal to watch is land volume (yellow) - land volume indicates that there is ultimately no demand, so the market may stop moving forward. During a downtrend, rallies are often characterized by buying and selling. (The main force does not want to sell at a low price, and sells at a high price, creating the illusion of a trend reversal, or showing short-covering chips, or traders constructing a bottom too quickly) Once the volume of buying and changing hands continues to decline, the downward trend may be will continue. When the lowest price of the K-line corresponding to the buying and changing hand tide is below (the short side is offside), it can be confirmed that the downward trend will continue, and those who enter by mistake need to stop loss and exit. The tide of selling and changing hands: the rate of selling and changing hands reaches a climax Market behavior is highly dual. There is buy and sell. Selling turnover is basically the opposite of buying turnover. BKVO identifies sell turnover waves by multiplying the sell volume (trading at the bid price) by the price range, then looking for the highest value in the last 8 turnover bars (the default setting). A surge in selling indicates that a large supply has caused prices to fall. The default setting is to set the turnover bar color to white. The selling tide usually occurs in: • The beginning of a downtrend (massive shipments of the main force); • the end of a downtrend (bear trap); • Pullbacks during an uptrend (shuffle, shock, long replenishment). The beginning of a downtrend almost always begins with a wave of selling. This shows that the main force is eager to ship, and the chips enter the market in large quantities and quickly push down the price. A valid downside breakout should have more price breakouts (changes move ahead of price), but occasionally a sell-change surge corresponds to the highest price of the candlestick. If the price of the K-line and the turnover rate later break through the highest value of the buying and changing tide, then the yang overcomes the yin, and you can enter the market to open a position. The characteristic of the selling tide (white) at the bottom of the market is that it coexists with the changing tide (green, long-short competition) or land volume (yellow, sellers do their best). A change in trend usually takes a while to develop, so don't be coaxed into a trade too early - wait until the market becomes exhausted and the bears completely unravel. A useful signal to watch is land volume (yellow) - this indicates that eventually there is no supply and the market may stop falling. During an uptrend, pullbacks are usually characterized by a wave of selling (white). These indicate profit-taking or the desire of the trader to get to the top quickly. Once the tide of selling and changing hands declines, the uptrend may resume and continue the original uptrend. When the price of the volume column and the K-line of the sell-and-change tide is double-covered, that is, the yang overcomes the yin, and the continuation of the upward trend can be confirmed. giant saw Mass saws are usually seen in: • End of uptrend; • the end of a downtrend; • Profit-taking boosted the medium-term trend. Be When huge tug-of-war volumes are high, it indicates that demand is being met by new supply of chips or supply is being met by new bottom-chip demand - in fact, as new supply or demand comes into the market, because, price It is impossible to advance, and the range from the highest price to the lowest price of the K line will be very small, so only the turnover rate can observe the market changes. Mass saws are seen as 'brakes'. It's like hitting the brakes - typically, the car will stop shortly thereafter (1-2% points), then turn around. However, at other times, the momentum is so great that all you get is a pause and then the market keeps going in the same direction! This is the difficulty of judging the development of market trends! It is worth noting that occasionally the trading tide and huge seesaw will overlap. At this time, the color of the turnover rate column is positive red (the buying and selling tide plus the huge seesaw), and its market meaning is also more complicated or vague. unclear. land change A change of land is usually seen in: • End of uptrend; • the end of a downtrend; • Mid-term trend pullback. The volume change (yellow) is my favorite indicator of the turnover rate. They show what retail traders do on candlestick charts. They are also very useful when the market tests tops or bottoms, as indicators that can confirm a change in trend direction. The colored turnover rate column is an important part of the quantitative knowledge system of Qingmao, and it is an effective aid in the existing and future release indicators. Because they can show turnover indicators that need attention at different market stages: • The top of the market is characterized by a buying rush (red), huge seesaws (green) and shrinking positives (yellow, also known as testing). • The bottom of the market is characterized by a surge of selling (white), a huge see-saw (green) and a shrinking volume (yellow, also known as a test). • Retracements of up or down trends are similar to market tops or bottoms, but with shorter duration and simpler turnover bar colors. Keep in mind that this method of using turnover to identify turning points is even more powerful when combined with non-correlated indicators such as whales and tangles. NOTE: this indicator can only applied for Stocks. Or it may fail in calculations.
SSE:600510Education
by blackcat1402
Wyckoff gives positive signNo SC, no apparent secondary testing. But price action at support and resistance still justifies the direction of the big-money's preference and bias of our market. The most important basis for bullish accumulation comes from the moderate decline at the top without volume, in addition the shocking behavior of the bottom telling a rebound. Combining the above events, we have reason to believe that big capital is trying to control the low-priced selling chips, ready to bring the price to a higher level...
SSE:600581Long
by ASTWA
000009 Has significant accumulation biasThe supply continues to shrink. After the low-bottom test, it shows that the last support of LPS is currently being built, and the profit-loss ratio of long-term entry is excellent. After the previous volume broke through and returned to the range, the volume decreased twice, and then was swallowed by the positive line with volume, indicating that the demand was rising. Although it is currently under the suppression of multiple moving averages, the method on the left can still judge that the accumulation behavior below is being established. Once the accumulation is completed, the volume breaks above the moving average and is very optimistic.
SZSE:000009Long
by ASTWA
2022-02-23 601633January data report. In the case of some friends who are more bright, it will appear slightly less beautiful, which must be admitted. And we also said that it doesn’t matter if the overall is bad, the market share has not lost, but this is the time to fight for market share. Hope that the Great Wall will continue to work hard. I suspect that there may have been a bit of pressure on sales in December, considering the reasons for equity incentives. However, important or high-margin models such as Euler, tanks, and guns, and even the newly launched brand beasts are all good, indicating that the explosion effect is still there. In the second month of listing, the beast became an explosion. Lack of core should be the reason. In fact, this wave city is not very lucky. The factories and production capacity are laid out in advance against the trend, but due to the lack of cores, the production capacity that should have made contributions in grabbing shares is not as good as imagined. But from a dialectical point of view, for the chip, Mr. Wei will definitely take action in supply chain management. If you believe in him, then the opportunity to increase the technical position is about to come. With the support of 0.618, continue to increase positions and do more
SSE:601633Long
by adolphs
2022-02-23 002415Hikvision's performance forecast is slightly higher than expected. How to wait for the annual report to see the specific composition. Today, I will use this performance forecast to sort out the valuation. Let's talk about the logic of our model first. Usually our manufacturing companies do not easily do ten years in the cash flow discount model, but we think that Hikvision is a company of the bell maker level. In the history of Hikvision, it has been as good as a day for decades, and it is currently the visual AI entrance. , digitalization and other softening areas have a large space, so we believe that Hikvision's model will be fine for ten years. Technically, there is currently a bullish Gat force. Let's keep going long.
SZSE:002415Long
by adolphs
HOW-TO use Sextan Strategy Backtesting FrameworkBacktesting of technical indicators and strategies is the most common way to understand a quantitative strategy. However, the complicated configuration and adaptation work of backtesting many quantitative tools makes many traders who do not understand the code daunted. Moreover, although I have written a lot of strategies, However, I am still not very satisfied with the backtest configuration and writing efficiency. Therefore, I have been thinking about how to build a backtesting framework that can quickly and easily evaluate the backtesting performance of any indicator with a "long/short entry" indicator, that is, a "simple backtesting tool for dummies". The performance requirements should be stable, and the operation should be simple and convenient. It is best to "copy", "paste", and "a few mouse clicks" to complete the quick backtest and evaluation of a new indicator. Luckily, I recently realized that TradingView provides an "Indicator on Indicator" feature, which is the perfect foundation for doing "hot swap" backtesting. My basic idea is to use a two-layer design. The first layer is the technical indicator signal source that needs to be embedded, which is only used to provide buy and sell signals of custom strategies; the second layer is the trading system, which is used to receive the output signals of the first layer, and filter the signals according to the agreed specifications. , Take Profit, Stop Loss, draw buy and sell signals and cost lines, define and send custom buy and sell alert messages to mobile phones, social software or trading interfaces. In general, this two-layer design is a flexible combination of "fixed and flexiable", which can meet the needs of most traders to quickly evaluate the performance of a certain technical indicator. The first layer here is flexible. Users can insert their own strategy codes according to my template, and they can draw buy and sell signals and output them to the second layer. The second layer is fixed, and the overall framework is solidified to ensure the stability and unity of the trading system. It is convenient to compare different or similar strategies under the same conditions. Finally, all trading signals are drawn on the chart, and the output strategy returns. test report. The main function: The first layer: "{Sextan} Your Indicator Source", the script provides a template for personalized strategy input, and the signal and definition interfaces ensure full compatibility with the second layer. Backtesting is performed stably in the backtesting framework of the layer. The first layer of this script is also relatively simple: enter your script in the highlighted custom script area, and after ensuring the final buy and sell signals long = bool condition, short = bool condition, the design of the first layer is considered complete. Input it into the PINE script editor of TradingView, save it and add it to the chart, you can see the pulse sequence in yellow (buy) and purple (sell) on the sub-picture, corresponding to the main picture, you can subjectively judge that the quality of the trading point of the strategy is good or bad. The second layer: "{Sextan} PINEv4 Sextans Backtest Framework". This script is the standardized trading system strategy execution and alarm, used to generate the final report of the strategy backtest and some key indicators that I have customized that I find useful, such as: winning rate , Odds, Winning Surface, Kelly Ratio, Take Profit and Stop Loss Thresholds, Trading Frequency, etc. are evaluated according to the Kelly formula. To use the second layer, first load it into the TrainingView chart, no markers will appear on the chart, since you have not specified any strategy source signals, click on the gear-shaped setting next to the "{Sextan} PINEv4 Sextans BTFW" header button, you can open the backtest settings, the first item is to select your custom strategy source. Because we have added the strategy source to the chart in the previous step, you can easily find an option "{Sextan} Your Indicator Source: Signal" at the bottom of the list, this is the strategy source input we need, select and confirm , you can see various markers on the main graph, and quickly generate a backtesting profit graph and a list of backtesting reports. You can generate files and download the backtesting reports locally. You can also click the gear on the backtest chart interface to customize some conditions of the backtest, including: initial capital amount, currency type, percentage of each order placed, amount of pyramid additions, commission fees, slippage, etc. configuration. Note: The configuration in the interface dialog overrides the same configuration implemented by the code in the backtest script. How to output charts: The first layer: "{Sextan} Your Indicator Source", the output of this script is the pulse value of yellow and purple, yellow +1 means buy, purple -1 means sell. The second layer: PINEv4 Sextans Backtest Framework". The output of this script is a bit complicated. After all, it is the entire trading system with a lot of information: 1. Blue and red arrows. The blue upward arrow indicates long position, the red downward arrow indicates short position, and the horizontal bar at the end of the purple arrow indicates take profit or stop loss exit. 2. Red and green lines. This is the holding cost line of the strategy, green represents the cost of holding a long position, and red represents the cost of holding a short position. The cost line is a continuous solid line and the price action is relatively close. 3. Green and yellow long take profit and stop loss area and green and yellow long take profit and stop loss fork. Once a long position is held, there is a conditional order for take profit and stop loss. The green horizontal line is the long take profit ratio line, and the yellow is the long stop loss ratio line; the green cross indicates the long take profit price, and the yellow cross indicates the long position. Stop loss price. It's worth noting that the prongs and wires don't necessarily go together. Because of the optimization of the algorithm, for a strong market, the take profit will occur after breaking the take profit line, and the profit will not be taken until the price falls. 4. The purple and red short take profit and stop loss area and the purple red short stop loss fork. Once a short position is held, there will be a take profit and stop loss conditional order, the red is the short take profit ratio line, and the purple is the short stop loss ratio line; the red cross indicates the short take profit price, and the purple cross indicates the short stop loss price. 5. In addition to the above signs, there are also text and numbers indicating the profit and loss values ​​of long and short positions. "L" means long; "S" means short; "XL" means close long; "XS" means close short. TradingView Strategy Tester Panel: The overview graph is an intuitive graph that plots the blue (gain) and red (loss) curves of all backtest periods together, and notes: the absolute value and percentage of net profit, the number of all closed positions, the winning percentage, the profit factor, The maximum trading loss, the absolute value and ratio of the average trading profit and loss, and the average number of K-lines held in all trades. Another is the performance summary. This is to display all long and short statistical indicators of backtesting in the form of a list, such as: net profit, gross profit, Sharpe ratio, maximum position, commission, times of profit and loss, etc. Finally, the transaction list is a table indexed by the transaction serial number, showing the signal direction, date and time, price, profit and loss, accumulated profit and loss, maximum transaction profit, transaction loss and other values. Finally, I will explain that this is just the beginning of this model. I will continue to optimize the trading system of the second layer. Various optimization feedback and suggestions are welcome. For valuable feedback, I am willing to provide some L4/L5 technical indicators as rewards for free subscription rights.
SZSE:000001
by blackcat1402
1