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Nordex: Profit Warning from May 2022 underestimated actual costsRECAP: Back in May 25, 2022, Nordex issued a profit warning and its stock was down -17.05%. The new estimates where: FY2022 PROFIT WARNING ESTIMATES FROM MAY 2022 (Source: Nordex's IR website section): – FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.2 to 5.7 billion – FY2022 EBITDA-margin: minus 4 to 0 percent, including all one-off effects - Capital expenditure: EUR 180 million - Working capital ratio: below -7% In March 31st, 2023 investors got to know the actual figures of the company. FY2022 ACTUALS (Source: Nordex's IR website section): – FY2022 Consolidated sales: EUR 5.6936 billion – FY2022 EBITDA-margin: -4.3% - Capital expenditure: EUR 204.8 million - Working capital ratio: -10.2% Capital expenditure and staff costs were up 21.4% and 18.5%, respectively. The company suffers from delays in project intakes. Overall, I reckon Consolidated sales were in the upper boundary of the profit warning but costs increased dramatically, probably due to inflation and related supply-chain issues that are still not fully corrected from China today, in 2023.
XETR:NDX1Short
by alexinve
Grand City Properties: Oversold dusted jewel? Maybe not yet.Back in Oct 13, 2022 I made this analysis: Compared to Vonovia, Grand City has a double better debt position than its big competitor. Earnings payout are 23% and cash payout 64%. Vonovia's respective figures are 67% and 61%. Debt quity ratio at 57% is highly different from Vonovia's at 117%. Grand City may experiment higher costs of debt refinancing in 2023 but not as much as Vonovia in relative numbers. Grand City is able to breath better within this whole interest rates hike environment than mostly any other REIT. Sometimes, it's better to aim at 1,5B valued companies than 15B valued ones. But then, on March 16th, 2023 GYC presented its FY 2022 results. And my analysis changed to this one: Unfortunately, Grand City decided not to pay 2022 dividend due to macroeconomic uncertainty. The results were somewhat weak even though positive. I see GYC going down to 4.42€ in the next months. Better to avoid January and February 2013 lows were around 4.42€. Current PER is 9.51 and dividend yield has been cut to 0% in 2022. Interest rates keep rising at the moment and before the SVB, FRC, Credit Suisse fall; investors thought they would go up until 5.5-6%. Even though debt is lower than its bigger competitor Vonovia and according to GYC website the company’s debt have a 95% interest hedging ratio, which is expected to reduce to 91% as some interest rate hedging matures throughout 2023; in an environment of increasing interest rates, investors could switch from REITs to bonds. The fact that GYC cut its dividend to 0, may look very disciplined and responsible. But a REIT who does not pay dividend is no longer attractive in my opinion. Whether it will be at 10-15€ in the next 4-5 years, that depends on: inflation stabilisation, interest rates beginning to drop at comfortable levels (1-3%), reduced banking crisis uncertainty and reduced recession fears, among other factors. It's also important to track the FFO and AFFO and compare these two metrics with competitors in order to see if the stock has been oversold or overbought. If Central Banks stop raising interest rates or inflation drops further, then REITs will be one of the first sectors to recover as they may be experiencing overselling. When I analysed GYC back in Oct, I saw good fundamental reasons to invest in it. Macroeconomic uncertainty is now overweighting those fundamental reasons. But when every aspect in the macroeconomic environment seemed to doom the expectations of GYC stock, I analysed the fundamentals of the company: Analysis FY 2022 results: Net Debt/EBITDA = 11.4x. AFFO diminished -1.26%. FFO/per share +3% at 1.14€. P/FFO (Today) = 7/1.14 = 6.14. Guidance FY 2023 FFO/share to decrease -13.16% max to 0.99€/share. P/FFO (2023e) = 7/0.99 = 7.07. Sector P/FFO for Residential REITs in US has been moving steadily between 17 and 25 in 2010-2018 period (S&P Global Market Intelligence, Nareit 2018). GYC is clearly undervalued already. Technical aspect doesn’t show any signs of recovery yet. RSI(14) suggesting completely oversold but selling volume keeps increasing. CONCLUSION We may be set to turnaround very soon on GYC. However, the fact that a REIT does not pay dividends is something clearly penalising the stock value. Therefore, I would still wait and see how the market develops and if GYC reaches 4.40€ level, maybe it could act as a historic support level from January 2013 and bounce back upwards from there.
XETR:GYCShort
by alexinve
Bayer AG (BAYN.de) bullish scenario:The technical figure Falling Wedge can be found in the daily chart in the German company Bayer AG (BAYN.de). Bayer AG is a German multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company and one of the largest pharmaceutical companies in the world. Headquartered in Leverkusen, Bayer's areas of business include pharmaceuticals; consumer healthcare products, agricultural chemicals, seeds and biotechnology products. The Falling Wedge broke through the resistance line on 22/03/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 9 days towards 60.750 EUR. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 54.890 EUR if you decide to enter this position. Bayer AG plans to spend $1 billion on drug research and development in the U.S. this year as it works to double its sales in the country by the end of the decade, Bayer's top U.S. pharmaceutical executive told Reuters. Sebastian Guth, president of Bayer's pharmaceuticals business in the Americas, in an interview with Reuters, said the company increased U.S. employees working on marketing for its pharmaceutical business by around 50% over the last three years and plans to expand on that by another 75% by 2030. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:BAYNLong
by legacyFXofficial
Trading Idea - #Volkswagen #VWMy trading idea for #Volkswagen #VW - LONG Entry: 122.80 EUR Target: 197.00 EUR (profit +58%) - So far, there are few affordable small electric cars on the market. Volkswagen wants to change that and presents the ID.2all for less than 25,000 EUR. According to VW, the fully electric compact car will have a range of up to 450 km and will be launched on the market in 2025. The quick charge is supposed to take only 20 minutes. - Volkswagen is pushing ahead with the electrification of its vehicles and plans to invest a total of 180 billion euros by 2027. With net liquidity of 43 billion euros, including 16 billion from the IPO of the Porsche sports car division, the Wolfsburg-based company considers itself in a solid position to handle the investments. - Record profit at Audi! They sell fewer cars but earn more money.
XETR:VOW3Long
by Traderherz-Analytics
1
VOLKSWAGEN - BEARISH CONTINUATIONVolkswagen, one of the largest European manufacturers of electric cars, is putting its plans to build more battery factories in eastern Europe on hold until the EU decides how it will respond to the IRA with manufacturing incentives of its own. That is not favorable for the asset and there are not many reasons to expect short-term surges, therefore that downtrend channel might continue to range the asset, and considering we are close to the resistance line it is likely to depreciate in the near future. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
XETR:VOWShort
by legacyFXofficial
Mercedes-Benz is at a multi-month resistance of 75Why should we short Mercedes-Benz? 1 - they hung up on the phone with Hitler who made them millions of dollars in WWI 2 - There's a huge resistance at 75 dollars 3 - they refused to pay for a car they invented that was literally my address: 63 Madison ave AMG 4 - I already asked Doug Clark (my former manager at ITG Global) to alert the CEO of Credit suiSSe to create some complex bearish derivatives more advanced than those of Fabrice les 2 Tours from GS
XETR:MBGShort
by Monsieur_Lumberg
My Favorite Setup1. Breakout resistance zone with gap on earnings day. 2. Confirmation of resistance turning into support. 3. Fly to next support zone. * 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗼𝗿𝗺𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝘀𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗲𝗱 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗳𝗶𝗻𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗶𝗰𝗲. 𝗔𝗹𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 𝗰𝗼𝗻𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁 𝘆𝗼𝘂𝗿 𝗼𝘄𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗲𝗮𝗿𝗰𝗵.
XETR:CONLong
by preduta
2