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Motor Oil Q3 - 9M Performance ReviewMotor Oil has reported its financial results for the first nine months of 2024, revealing a significant drop in net profitability. The company faced pressures due to global energy instability, geopolitical tensions, and a catastrophic fire at its refinery in Kalamaki, Corinth. Significant Profit Decline Motor Oil’s financial data showed a 68.9% reduction in net profits, amounting to €224.05 million, down from €717.25 million in the same period of 2023. The third quarter was particularly unfavorable, recording net losses of €137.9 million, offsetting positive performances in the earlier part of the year. This decline in profitability was attributed to: Reduced refining margins Increased operating costs due to the refinery fire Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, which heightened energy market volatility and disrupted operations Stable Revenues but Lower EBITDA Revenue for the nine months reached €9.368 billion, a marginal decline of 6% compared to €9.968 billion in the same period in 2023. However, EBITDA dropped by 34% to €768 million, reflecting lower efficiency in refinery operations and reduced product margins. Notable changes in product margins: Jet Fuel margins decreased from $31.6/bbl in Q3 2023 to $15.7/bbl in Q3 2024. Increased Investments and Negative Cash Flow Despite challenges, Motor Oil maintained its investment strategy: Capital expenditures (Capex) rose to €298 million in 2024, compared to €246 million in 2023, underscoring its commitment to clean energy and sustainable development. However, free cash flows turned negative at -€129 million, a stark contrast to the positive €746 million in 2023. Net debt also increased to €1.836 billion from €1.518 billion at the end of 2023, due to higher investments and liquidity pressures. Extraordinary Refinery Taxation The company’s tax obligations have been affected by new policies: In July 2024, Law 5122/2024 introduced a temporary solidarity contribution of 33% on taxable profits exceeding 20% of the average taxable profits for the 2018-2021 period, as defined by EU Regulation 1854/2022. The Pillar II Global Tax initiative mandates a 15% minimum tax rate for multinational enterprises with annual revenues above €750 million, effective from January 2024. While this affects Motor Oil’s activities in the UAE, Croatia, and Cyprus, the impact is expected to be minimal. Dividend Distributions Motor Oil continues its tradition of rewarding shareholders: For 2023, a total gross dividend of €199.41 million (€1.80 per share) was approved and distributed in two phases. An interim dividend of €0.30 per share was declared for 2024, payable on January 3, 2025. Risk Management and Corporate Governance Amid geopolitical tensions and economic instability, Motor Oil has strengthened its risk management framework: Three Lines of Defense Model: Operational units assess and manage risks. Risk Management and Compliance Units provide oversight and guidance. The Internal Audit Unit independently evaluates the system’s effectiveness. Financial risks, including commodity price, currency exchange, and interest rate fluctuations, are managed using financial derivatives. Additionally, the company remains committed to transitioning to clean energy and sustainable practices, integrating Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria into decision-making processes. Challenges and Resilience Motor Oil has faced significant challenges in 2024, including: Geopolitical tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East. Fluctuations in energy prices and exchange rates. The decline in Brent crude prices from $87/bbl in Q3 2023 to $80/bbl in Q3 2024. Recent developments include: Competition Fine: A €9.2 million fine from the Hellenic Competition Commission, contested by the company. Fire Incident: A fire on September 17, 2024, reduced refinery capacity to 65-80%. Repairs are underway, with full capacity expected by Q3 2025. Leadership Changes: Following the passing of Chairman Vardis I. Vardinogiannis, the Board appointed Ioannis V. Vardinogiannis as Chairman and Georgios Prousanidis as Vice Chairman. Outlook Motor Oil remains focused on adapting to evolving market conditions, maintaining its resilience and commitment to long-term sustainability and growth. While 2024 has been marked by challenges, the company’s strategic direction and robust risk management frameworks position it for recovery and continued success.
ATHEX:MOHLong
by kgougakis
The Risky Strategy of Vassilakis: Aegean’s Profit Decline The Bold but Risky Strategy of Vassilakis: Aegean’s Profit Decline and the Volotea Acquisition Aegean's nine-month financial results for 2024 confirmed a worrisome trend that had begun to surface on the stock market, revealing a significant deterioration in the company's financials. The 3% drop in revenue and a 23% decline in post-tax profits compared to the same period last year underscore the financial pressure facing the company. This downward trend is also reflected in Aegean’s stock, which has plummeted by 26.22% over the past six months, showing losses of 13.14% since the start of the year. These developments intensify investor pessimism, with the stock nearing its 52-week low. Despite these challenges, Aegean made a bold yet potentially risky move by acquiring a 13% stake in Volotea, one of Europe’s top low-cost carriers. This €100 million investment could be seen as Aegean’s attempt to strengthen its position in the European market and increase its international presence. However, given the current negative financial state, the investment appears risky, particularly considering the challenges the company is already facing. Mr. Vassilakis, Aegean's chairman, continues to pursue investments despite the company’s financial difficulties, a strategy that could lead to further risks. Aegean is facing a decline in efficiency and a serious drop in key financial metrics. Especially concerning is the EBITDA, which dropped by 10%, indicating reduced operational profitability and raising doubts about the long-term viability of this strategy. The decision to allocate such a large capital amount for an acquisition amid falling profits leaves room for questioning the appropriateness of this move in the current economic climate. Looking ahead to the year’s end, prospects appear bleak, as the company’s financial trajectory suggests potentially greater losses. The negative growth rate in critical indicators suggests that challenges will persist, casting doubt on the profitability of the Volotea acquisition at this stage. This acquisition could only be successful if Aegean manages to reverse its negative course and capitalize on its investment in Volotea, but current signs leave little room for optimism. The combination of financial challenges and high acquisition costs may confront Aegean's management with tough decisions. Key financial results for Aegean for Q3 and the nine months of 2024: Third Quarter 2024 compared to 2023: Revenue: €630.8 million (down 3% from €653.6 million in 2023) EBITDA: €182.3 million (down 20% from €227.9 million in 2023) Earnings before interest and taxes: €136.1 million (down 27% from €186.2 million in 2023) Earnings before taxes: €138.8 million (down 18% from €168.8 million in 2023) Net profit after taxes: €108.3 million (down 19% from €133.6 million in 2023) Nine Months 2024 compared to 2023: Revenue: €1,379.9 million (up 4% from €1,331.7 million in 2023) EBITDA: €329.9 million (down 10% from €367.4 million in 2023) Earnings before interest and taxes: €199.5 million (down 21% from €253.7 million in 2023) Earnings before taxes: €170.4 million (down 22% from €217.5 million in 2023) Net profit after taxes: €132.0 million (down 23% from €170.7 million in 2023)
ATHEX:AEGNShort
by kgougakis
Alpha Bank Shows Impressive Performance Alpha Bank Shows Impressive Performance in the First Nine Months of 2024, with Positive Indicators Boosting Investor Confidence and Paving the Way for Upgraded Forecasts for the Rest of the Year. Alpha Bank reported adjusted net profits of €666 million, showing a 16% annual increase, while net profits reached €489 million. The impressive increase in earnings per share to €0.27 highlights the bank's profitability, with a return on equity of 14.4%. Net interest income showed a 2% annual increase, while fee income saw an impressive rise of 11%, reaching €306 million. This growth in fee income reflects the bank’s success in diversifying its revenue streams and expanding into payment and wealth management services. The non-performing exposure (NPE) ratio stands at a low 4.6%, underscoring the resilience of the bank’s portfolio and prudent risk management. Meanwhile, the cost of risk has been significantly reduced to 63 basis points, contributing to the improvement in the bank’s asset quality. The increase in loans by 8% and deposits by 10% reflects strong customer confidence and the continuous strengthening of the bank’s portfolio. Alpha Bank seems to be adapting exceptionally well to the increased market needs, especially in the business loan segment. The bank’s balance sheet is well-structured to withstand interest rate reductions, with strong capital adequacy and a proper asset allocation. This provides stability and protection against potential market fluctuations, with minimal impact on net interest income. The increased demand for business loans is reflected in a 67% rise in corporate loans since 2018, with Alpha Bank outperforming the sector average in loan growth. The positive trend in loan demand is expected to continue, offering further growth opportunities. Alpha Bank holds a leading position in wealth management, with the largest mutual funds under management in Greece. The expected increase in fee income by 2026, particularly in the payments and wealth management sectors, supports the bank's strategy for revenue diversification. The bank is on track for further growth in earnings per share, with an expected return reaching €0.35 by 2026, thanks to continuous improvements in operational efficiency and strong financial performance. Alpha Bank’s capital adequacy is higher than the average of Greek banks, with a CET1 ratio of 15.5%, while over 30% of its market cap is expected to be distributed as dividends by 2026. This strong capital base enables management to reward shareholders while maintaining sufficient capital reserves. Detailed Financial Data of Alpha Bank for the First Nine Months of 2024 Net Interest Income Net interest income amounted to €1.243 billion for the first nine months of 2024, showing an annual increase of 2%. Despite stable interest income in recent quarters (€410 million in Q3 2024), the bank manages to maintain a steady income in its core area. Fee Income Fee income reached €306 million, up 11% compared to the same period in 2023. This increase confirms the effectiveness of the bank’s strategies to diversify its revenue sources, primarily through payment services and wealth management. Trading and Other Income Trading and other income saw an impressive 81% increase, reaching €95 million. This reflects the bank’s success in seizing opportunities in the markets and other investment activities. Operating Income and Expenses Operating income for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to €1.643 billion, up 6% compared to the previous year. Total operating expenses remained steady at €627 million, with no change, indicating successful cost management despite increased activity. The combination of revenue growth and expense stability demonstrates the bank’s improved efficiency. Pre-Provision Income Pre-provision income increased by 11%, reaching €1.016 billion. This increase is particularly significant as it strengthens the bank’s resilience to potential risks and lays the groundwork for healthy growth. Impairment Losses Impairment losses decreased by 20%, amounting to €173 million. This reduction is very positive, reflecting the improvement in the bank’s portfolio quality and reduced need for provisions against bad loans. Profit Before Tax Profit before tax amounted to €838 million, marking a significant increase of 18% compared to the same period last year. This increase reflects the positive impact of cost management and increased revenues. Net Profit After Tax Net profit after tax amounted to €489 million, showing a slight decrease of 2% compared to 2023. Although this decrease might seem negative, it is offset by the increase in adjusted net profits. Adjusted Net Profit After Tax Adjusted net profit after tax increased by 16%, reaching €666 million. This increase reflects the bank's strong financial performance and positive results without the impact of extraordinary expenses or other adjustments. Alpha Bank Shares Show Several Positive Indicators According to Analysts: Undervalued Market Price: Alpha Bank shares are trading at levels significantly below their estimated fair value, with a 55.5% discount. This means it offers substantial value for investors seeking to benefit from its potential future appreciation. Earnings Growth Forecast: Alpha Bank’s earnings are forecasted to grow at an annual rate of 18.2%, significantly exceeding both the market average and savings rates. Additionally, historical data show a 25.5% annual growth in earnings over the past five years. Analysts’ Consensus for an Upward Trend: Analysts are optimistic and agree that Alpha Bank’s stock price will rise by around 49.2% over the next year. This reflects market confidence in the company’s potential. Valuation Based on Price-to-Book Ratio (PB): The price-to-book ratio for Alpha Bank shares is at 0.5x, indicating that the market values the stock at a very low level compared to its net book value. This suggests the stock could be a good buying opportunity relative to its sector. Strong Financial Health: Alpha Bank shows adequate deposit levels and healthy loan levels, with an appropriate loan-to-deposit ratio of 70%. Although non-performing loans are at 3.8%, this percentage is not high enough to pose a risk, and the company has sufficient provisions for bad loans. Expected Revenue Growth: Although the forecasted annual revenue growth is 7.9%, this rate is positive for the company’s growth prospects, surpassing the market forecast (5.1%). Technical Analysis The technical analysis of Alpha Bank’s stock shows a strong upward trend, supported by various indicators and support and resistance levels. Moving Averages (EMA) The Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) for 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods indicate an upward trend, with the stock trading above all these levels, signaling strong bullish momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI is at 80.72, indicating that the stock is in the overbought zone. While this suggests high demand and bullish momentum, it also poses a risk for a possible correction. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) The MACD line (0.0359) is above the signal line (0.0278), indicating an upward trend. The positive value of the Histogram (0.0081) further reinforces the bullish trend. Trading Volume Volume is on an upward trend, with a total volume of 1.777 million. The increase in volume supports the upward movement, as it indicates growing investor interest in buying the stock. Fibonacci Levels The Fibonacci levels confirm support and resistance points: 0.618 level at 1.4680 serves as support. Level 1 at 1.4960 also acts as a significant support level. Support and Resistance Levels R1 (Resistance 1): 1.5495, which has been exceeded, with the current stock price slightly above this level. R2 (Resistance 2): 1.5795, which could act as a point of slowing the upward trend. S1 (Support 1): 1.4275, providing fundamental support in case of a correction.
ATHEX:ALPHALong
by kgougakis
ELLKTOR’s Strategic Share Buyback: Boosting ConfidenceELLKTOR’s Strategic Share Buyback: Boosting Confidence in Long-Term Value ELLKTOR has recently taken a decisive step to support its stock, highlighting transparency and reliability. On November 7, 2024, the company purchased 20,000 shares at €1.7222 each, for a total transaction of €34,443.24. This strategic move brings its total share buyback to 40,000 shares, accounting for 0.011% of its total share capital. Demonstrating Confidence in Underlying Value The decision underscores management’s belief that the stock is trading well below its intrinsic value, reinforcing ELLKTOR’s image as a company that understands its potential and invests in its growth. This action aims to inspire confidence among shareholders and the broader market. Approval and Execution This share buyback program was approved during the Annual General Meeting on June 22, 2023, and ratified by the Board of Directors on September 14, 2023. The transaction was executed through Optima Bank S.A., one of ELLKTOR’s trusted financial partners. Valuation Insights ELLKTOR’s assets reflect an attractive valuation of approximately €1.2 billion, suggesting a significant underestimation of its market price. The company boasts cash reserves of €700 million, providing a robust foundation for future growth and financial stability. Additionally, Elector, under the Vardinogiannis family’s control, is valued at €200 million, while concessions like Moreas, the Rio-Antirrio Bridge, Olympia Odos, and Aegean Motorways exceed €200 million in total value. The company is set to receive €80 million from Attiki Odos, with another €80 million pending from the sale of Aktor. These inflows bolster ELLKTOR’s already solid financial position, emphasizing its substantial intrinsic value. Stock Performance: A Potential Investment Opportunity Despite these favorable indicators, ELLKTOR’s stock remains heavily discounted. This misalignment between its market price and true value presents an intriguing investment opportunity. The company’s strategic buyback demonstrates its confidence in future growth, signaling to investors that the current stock price may not reflect its genuine potential. Shareholder Dynamics and Market Impact A key reason for ELLKTOR’s exclusion from MSCI indices is the limited stock float due to significant shareholder concentration. Notably, Dutch company REGGEBORGH INVEST B.V. holds 48.155% (167,672,350 shares), MOTOR OIL (HELLAS) S.A. holds 26.882% (93,600,000 shares), and Atlas NV owns 9.798% (34,114,860 shares), leaving only 15.165% in the hands of smaller investors. Even with its MSCI removal, these major shareholders continue to show strong strategic commitment. This backing could support future stock price movements, especially as market distortions eventually correct themselves. Looking Ahead With the release of nine-month financial results on the horizon, analysts and investors will gain a clearer picture of ELLKTOR’s financial performance and potential. The expectation is that the stock will begin to reflect its true value, drawing the investor attention it warrants. ELLKTOR’s strategic buyback is more than just a corporate maneuver; it’s a testament to the company’s unwavering belief in its future and intrinsic value. As the market recalibrates to recognize these strengths, ELLKTOR stands poised for potential upward momentum, making it an intriguing option for value-focused investors.
ATHEX:ELLAKTORLong
by kgougakis
Intracom Holdings (INTRK) - Falling Wedge Pattern with Bullish PIntracom Holdings (INTRK) - Falling Wedge Pattern with Bullish Potential The chart for Intracom Holdings (INTRK) is showing a "Falling Wedge Pattern," typically signaling a potential trend reversal to the upside. This pattern, along with the following technical indicators, supports a bullish outlook: Falling Wedge Formation: The converging trendlines suggest decreasing downward momentum, forming a possible base. Bullish RSI Divergence: There's a bullish divergence in the RSI, often indicating weakening bearish strength and a potential reversal. Breakout Opportunity: If the price breaks above the upper wedge line with increased volume, a strong upward movement could follow. Target: A successful breakout from the Falling Wedge could push the price toward the 4 EUR level, as indicated by the yellow projection line on the chart.
ATHEX:INTRKLong
by SOKAKIARISChrisbar
HELLENiQ ENERGY: Warnings and a negative Scenario HELLENiQ ENERGY is at a critical turning point, as its stock has shown a concerning trend over the past few months, with future prospects looking bleak. This issue was highlighted in previous analyses, such as the one from Goldman Sachs in August, which warned of a looming decline. Now, a new analysis from Morgan Stanley confirms and expands these concerns, lowering the target price and reinforcing the negative outlook for the company. The negative Scenario of €4.5 According to Morgan Stanley's recent report, HELLENiQ ENERGY faces serious challenges, with analysts predicting a worst-case scenario where the stock price could drop to €4.5. This extremely negative forecast is based on reduced refining margins and unfavorable macroeconomic conditions affecting the fuel market. Specifically, declining commodity prices and increased capital costs are creating significant problems for the company, which seems unable to meet market demands. Morgan Stanley's analysis specifically highlights the Q3 financial results, predicting consolidated EBITDA to reach €158 million, compared to €179 million in Q2. This decline, along with a solidarity tax of €173 million, leads to net losses of €144 million, painting a worrying picture for the company's future profitability. Goldman Sachs' Warning in August: Who Listened Then? This is not the first time analysts have warned about HELLENiQ ENERGY’s poor performance. As early as August, Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock, recommending a sale and setting a target price of €7.7. In our August 30 article, we highlighted the management’s inability to effectively handle the challenges facing the company. We warned back then about management’s weaknesses and lack of strategic planning, but few heeded our alerts. Today, these concerns are being dramatically confirmed. The poor handling of investments, such as the one in Elpedison, which has not yielded a single euro in dividends despite a €500 million investment, is a prime example of the company’s inability to diversify and develop profitable activities. Internal Revelations: Lack of Strategic Planning Concerns over the management of HELLENiQ ENERGY deepened further after comments from the CEO during a recent general assembly. The CEO publicly admitted the lack of clarity in the company’s strategic direction, reinforcing the perception of leadership unable to guide the company through a tough market. These remarks, which were overheard due to a power outage leaving microphones open, underscore the vagueness and indecisiveness of the leadership. The fact that the investment in Elpedison has not delivered expected returns raises additional concerns about the company’s long-term strategy. The lack of clear objectives and inconsistencies in investment choices confirm the reservations of minor shareholders, who question whether the current leadership can improve the company’s performance. Market Challenges and Lack of Leadership HELLENiQ ENERGY’s volatile stock performance is not solely due to external pressures, such as reduced refining profit margins or fluctuations in fuel prices. Many investors believe that management’s inability to quickly adapt and make decisions that would enhance the company’s competitiveness is a major cause of the stock’s decline. The company continues to face issues in the petrochemical sector, despite some positive developments in the Renewable Energy sector. Even the positive cash flows are not enough to reassure markets, as increased capital costs and a lack of vision in strategic planning create a negative atmosphere around the company. Minor Shareholders' Reaction and the Risks of a Decline Minor shareholders are in a difficult position, seeing the stock price fall and uncertainty increase. The recent Goldman Sachs evaluation, recommending the sale of the stock, confirms their fears about the company’s poor performance. The lack of transparency and ambiguities in the management’s statements only worsen the uncertainty and intensify pressures on the stock. The situation demands careful monitoring from minor shareholders, who may need to reassess their investment strategy, considering the negative forecasts and the lack of confidence in the company’s leadership. A Bleak Outlook for HELLENiQ ENERGY HELLENiQ ENERGY faces serious challenges that threaten its long-term viability. The lack of strategic direction, problems in investments, and increased market pressures create a grim outlook for the company’s stock. Morgan Stanley’s negative assessment reinforces earlier warnings from Goldman Sachs. If the company does not make immediate changes and develop a clear and realistic strategic plan, its prospects remain bleak. Minor shareholders have every reason to be concerned, as the downward trend appears to be continuing, validating those who previously warned of the need for decisive change in the management and strategic direction of HELLENiQ ENERGY.
ATHEX:ELPEShort
by kgougakis
Piraeus Financial Holdings SA Poised for a Potential Rebound -TAPiraeus Financial Holdings SA's recent price movements suggest the stock might be preparing for a positive turnaround, offering an intriguing opportunity for investors. Currently trading around €3.62, the stock finds itself at a critical support level that could act as a strong base for a potential rally. One of the key indicators suggesting a possible rebound is the stock's position relative to the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Holding above this long-term trend line implies that the broader trend remains bullish, despite recent short-term volatility. Additionally, the shorter-term EMAs are showing signs of convergence, often a precursor to a breakout. Volume analysis also paints a promising picture. Recent downtrends have been accompanied by high trading volumes, a sign that suggests strong buyer interest. This accumulation phase could signal that investors are taking advantage of lower prices, setting the stage for an upward movement. Technical indicators further support this optimistic view. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is approaching a potential bullish crossover, hinting at a momentum shift. Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 38, nearing oversold territory. A bounce from this level could indicate that selling pressure is fading, paving the way for buyers to step in. Fibonacci retracement levels also show that the stock is navigating key support zones. A rebound from current levels could target the 0.618 and 0.5 retracement levels, providing a clear path to recovery if momentum shifts. Furthermore, pivot points highlight that a move above €3.624 could aim for resistance at €3.987, indicating a potential reversal pattern. Overall, Piraeus Financial Holdings SA seems to be on the cusp of a potential upswing. If current support levels hold and buying interest continues to grow, a bullish shift may be imminent, offering investors a favorable risk-reward scenario in the coming days. Support Levels: The stock is currently at a critical support level around €3.62. If this support holds, it could act as a strong base for a potential rebound. There's a significant Fibonacci support level at the 0.786 retracement level around €3.769, indicating that this price region is a crucial area of interest for buyers. Moving Averages: The stock is still above the 200-day EMA, a strong indication that the long-term trend remains positive. Historically, holding above the 200-day EMA suggests that the overall trend has room to move higher. The convergence of the shorter-term EMAs (20, 50, 100) indicates that a consolidation phase might be ending, potentially leading to a breakout as market forces decide on the next direction. Volume Analysis: There have been a few spikes in volume during downward movements, indicating strong interest from buyers. High volume in this context often means that there is accumulation happening, a positive sign of potential price recovery. MACD Indicator: Although the MACD line is currently below the signal line, it's nearing a potential crossover. This suggests that momentum may soon shift from bearish to bullish, which could spark a rally. A bullish crossover would reinforce the idea that the downtrend might be losing steam, with buyers ready to step in. Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is around 38, suggesting that the stock is nearing oversold territory. This is often an indicator that a price reversal is on the horizon, providing a good buying opportunity for traders. Fibonacci Levels: The current price action is trading within important Fibonacci retracement levels, with the potential to move back towards the 0.618 and 0.5 levels if support holds. These levels could act as targets if the stock begins to move upwards, indicating that there's a strong base for recovery. Pivot Points: The stock is close to S2 (€3.624), and if it finds support here, a movement towards the pivot point or even R1 (€3.987) could be feasible. This would represent a bullish reversal pattern if confirmed by upcoming candles. Positive Outlook Summary: If the current support levels hold and there's a bullish crossover in the MACD, along with a bounce from the oversold RSI, there’s a strong chance that the stock may resume its upward trend. Traders could look for confirmation with increased buying volume or a close above the recent resistance levels to affirm a positive shift in market sentiment.
ATHEX:TPEIRLong
by kgougakis
INTRALOT S.A. (INLOT) - Weekly Chart: Cup and Handle Pattern ForINTRALOT S.A. (INLOT) - Weekly Chart: Cup and Handle Pattern Formation This chart showcases a classic Cup and Handle pattern forming on the weekly timeframe for Intralot S.A. (INLOT). The price successfully tested the resistance zone between €1.20 and €1.30, but is currently retracing to the support area around €1.06. A further pullback towards the €0.85-€0.90 range is possible if the correction deepens. However, a strong breakout above the current resistance could trigger a bullish continuation towards the €1.60+ levels, aligning with the pattern’s projected target. The yellow highlighted area marks key support and resistance zones, while the red zone shows potential downside risks if the pullback extends.
ATHEX:INLOTLong
by SOKAKIARISChrisbar
INLOTAnalysis: Cup and Handle Formation: The chart displays a rounded formation resembling a cup, starting around mid-2017 and completing in mid-2023. The "handle" seems to be forming in 2024. This pattern is common in technical analysis and can signal a continuation of the upward trend if the handle breaks out to the upside. Key Levels: There’s a marked resistance level around €1.35, which has been tested several times. A crucial support zone is seen near €0.85 to €1. If this breaks, the chart indicates a possible drop to lower levels. Potential Targets: The yellow arrow indicates a bullish outlook, where a breakout above the €1.35 resistance could potentially lead to a rally towards the €2.50 region. This projection is based on the height of the "cup." Conversely, a breakdown below the support zone could lead to a significant decline. Risk and Reward Zones: The red and green shaded areas on the right side of the chart outline possible risk and reward zones, with the red area representing the downside risk and the green area indicating the potential upside if the price breaks out. Suggested TradingView Description: The Intralot (INLOT) chart showcases a classic "Cup and Handle" formation, indicating a potential bullish breakout with a target near €2.50 if the €1.35 resistance is cleared. However, the support zone around €0.85 - €1 needs to hold to avoid a downside move. Monitoring the handle formation for breakout confirmation.
ATHEX:INLOTLong
by SOKAKIARISChrisbar
1
INTRALOT: Closer Than Ever to Listing on the U.S. Stock ExchangeINTRALOT's stock continues on a downward trajectory, raising questions among investors and analysts about the company's future. At the same time, INTRACOM Holdings, a company connected to Sokratis Kokkalis, is increasing its stake in INTRALOT through continuous stock purchases. This move could be aimed at further consolidating Kokkalis' control over the company. INTRACOM's Strategic Moves Despite the declining stock price, INTRACOM Holdings, linked to Sokratis Kokkalis, appears to have a different outlook on INTRALOT's future. On October 10, 2024, INTRACOM purchased 100,000 common shares of INTRALOT, valued at €107,440. This move continues a series of purchases by Kokkalis, who has significantly increased his stake in the company over recent months. According to the latest reports, Kokkalis directly holds 20.5% of INTRALOT shares, while through INTRACOM, he controls an additional 9.5%, making him the company's largest shareholder with control over nearly 30% of the total capital. This strengthens his position as the dominant shareholder, compared to CQ Lottey LLC, owned by Soohyung Kim, which controls 26.8%. The U.S. Market and the Potential Listing on the U.S. Stock Exchange The U.S. market has become a focal point of INTRALOT's strategy. The company aims to secure contracts in major states and is also considering the possibility of listing its subsidiary, INTRALOT Inc., on the U.S. Stock Exchange. While this plan is not yet finalized, it remains one of the group's most ambitious goals. According to Kokkalis, INTRALOT Inc., which operates in the U.S., has the potential to become one of the largest players in the American gaming industry. The company already manages contracts in states like Illinois, Nebraska, and Missouri. It has submitted bids for significant projects, including monitoring 50,000 VLTs (Video Lottery Terminals) in Illinois, as well as contracts in Canada and Australia, further boosting its global gaming market prospects. Listing INTRALOT Inc. on the U.S. Stock Exchange could generate significant value for the parent company’s shareholders, potentially raising new capital and investments to help reverse the current downward trend in the stock price. Performance and Financial Results Despite the stock’s decline, INTRALOT continues to post significant financial successes. In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue stood at €173.6 million, a slight 0.9% decrease compared to the previous year, mainly due to currency fluctuations in Argentina. EBITDA earnings reached €59.5 million, down by 5.3%, while net profits rose to €4.6 million, a 4.4% increase over the same period in 2023. The company’s management remains optimistic about the second half of the year, with anticipated agreements in the U.S. and improvements in the Turkish and Argentine markets expected to boost revenue. INTRALOT has also invested in new technological systems, such as transitioning British Columbia Lottery Corporation to the cloud-based LotosX Omni system, making it one of the first lotteries worldwide to operate entirely in the cloud. Technical Analysis INTRALOT's stock continues its downward trend, as indicated by market technical data. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 23.75, suggesting the stock is oversold. An RSI below 30 indicates the stock may be undervalued, which could lead to a potential rebound if the trend reverses. At the same time, the 20, 50, 100, and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) are all negative. Specifically, the stock's price is below these averages, with the 20-day EMA showing a -5.80% deviation and the 200-day EMA at -2.51%. This situation indicates that selling pressure remains high, and the overall trend is bearish. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) also signals a downward trend, as the histogram remains negative. This combination of technical indicators suggests no clear signs of a trend reversal, at least in the short term. Investors are advised to closely monitor support levels at €1.084 and €1.058, as well as resistance levels at €1.17 and €1.198. Despite increased trading volume, the bearish trend remains strong, and technical data suggest the stock may continue to move lower. RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI is at 23.75, indicating the stock is oversold. Values below 30 on the RSI imply the stock may be undervalued and could potentially see a rebound. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD (-0.0172) is lower than the signal line (-0.0130), while the histogram is also negative (-0.0042), indicating a bearish trend and that selling pressure is greater than buying. EMA (Exponential Moving Averages): The 20, 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs show that the stock’s price is below all the key moving averages, which is typically interpreted as a bearish signal. The deviations range from -2.51% to -5.80%, with the shortest-term EMA showing the largest deviation, confirming the intensity of the downward pressure. Support and Resistance Levels: The chart indicates support levels (S1) at €1.084 and S2 at €1.058, acting as strong points that may halt further declines. Resistance levels (R1) are found at €1.170, with the next resistance at €1.198. Fibonacci Levels: From the Fibonacci levels on the chart, the 0.236 and 0.382 levels are close to the current price, with the market moving towards lower levels.
ATHEX:INLOTShort
by kgougakis
JUMBO (BELA) Comprehensive AnalysisThe JUMBO stock recorded a significant drop of 1.90% yesterday, closing at 24.72 euros, which is the lowest level in the last six months . The dividend cut has affected the stock price, but forecasts from major analysts indicate significant upside potential. Last Closing Price: 24.72 euros 52-Week High/Low: 32.60 euros / 24.72 euros Economic Analysis Jumbo maintains a high dividend policy for 2024 despite market challenges. The company distributes 3% of its shares, with Apostolos Vakakis reducing his stake to 16.3%. The high dividend yield, combined with the expansion of the store network, enhances the attractiveness of the stock. Expected Dividend Yield: 9.1% 2024 Revenue Growth Estimate: 4%-8% Expected 2024 Earnings: Stable or slightly increased Lowering Revenue and Profit Targets – Warning of Possible Revision Jumbo informed investors that group sales increased by approximately 8% in the first half of the year, with a +9% increase recorded in June compared to the same month last year. Nevertheless, the company sets the bar for revenue and profit growth for the year at the lower end of the initial estimate of 8%-10%. Jumbo warns that if current conditions worsen, which is reasonably expected, the sales growth rate could be limited to +4% with profitability hovering at 2023 levels. Factors Affecting the Estimate Commenting on the business environment, the company mentions that the situation in the Middle East, with the "closure" of the Suez Canal, although initially temporary, will continue to affect the global supply chain likely even after the elections in America. The current global trade situation resembles the pandemic crisis, with transportation costs skyrocketing and delivery times doubling. Jumbo refuses to pass the burden of supply chain disruptions onto consumer prices. The company's strategy remains clear: it does not intend to offer overpriced products, as it estimates that the situation will reverse by the end of 2024 or 2025. Jumbo's Strategy Jumbo chooses products that meet the needs and capabilities of consumers. Faced with the dilemma of a product that includes the cost of disruptions and another with manageable costs, the company chooses the latter. This strategy is expected to lead to an increase in Jumbo's market share in the markets it operates, despite the expected reduction in inventory by the end of the year. First Half 2024 Performance Group sales increased by approximately +8% in the first half of 2024. In June 2024, sales recorded an increase of +9% compared to the same month last year. Detailed sales performance by country: Greece: Net sales increase of +6% in June 2024 and +7% for the first half. Cyprus: Sales increase of +6% in June 2024 and +4% for the first half. Bulgaria: Sales increase of +19% in June 2024 and +11% for the first half. Romania: Sales increase of +17% in June 2024 and +14% for the first half. Store Network Expansion As of June 30, 2024, the JUMBO Group had 86 stores: 53 in Greece, 5 in Cyprus, 10 in Bulgaria, and 18 in Romania, with online stores in Greece, Cyprus, and Romania. By the end of 2024, two new superstores are expected to open in Nicosia and Bucharest. The opening of the new superstore in Timisoara is postponed to the first quarter of 2025. Through partnerships, the group has a presence with 36 stores in 7 countries: Albania, Kosovo, Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia, Montenegro, and Israel. A second store in Israel is expected to start operating in August 2024. It is reminded that on July 16, 2024, the dividend from the 2023 earnings, amounting to 1 Euro per share (gross), will be paid. Citi and Pantelakis Securities See Over 20% Upside Potential for the Stock Citi and Pantelakis Securities predict more than 20% upside potential for Jumbo stock, despite the recent downgrade of the guidance from the company's management for the 2024 results. Citi Estimates Citi maintains the target price at €32.5, with an estimated upside of 23.9% from current levels. Combined with the dividend yield expected to reach 9.1%, the total return is estimated to reach 33%. The investment bank issues a buy recommendation for the stock. The target price of €32.5 derives from the average valuation based on the EV/EBITDA multiple, estimating that Jumbo will trade at 9 times the EV/EBITDA ratio for 2025 with a slight premium compared to the 5-year average, and from the discounted cash flow method. The target price implies approximately 14 times the P/E ratio for 2024, according to Citi. Pantelakis Securities Estimates Pantelakis Securities sets the target price at €36, with an estimated upside of 37%. They give an overweight recommendation and highlight that Jumbo is attractively priced at 10.1 times the P/E ratio for 2025 and 6.8 times the EV/EBITDA ratio. Pantelakis Securities calculates that the market at current levels discounts a long-term drop in the EBITDA margin to 17.8% from 36.8% in 2023, which is not justified. Furthermore, they mention that the strong cash flow performance in 2025 at 8% and the generous and sustainable dividend payments (6.9%) further enhance Jumbo's valuation attractiveness. Conclusion Despite the downgrade of the guidance from Jumbo's management for the 2024 results, both Citi and Pantelakis Securities see significant upside potential for the company's stock. Their forecasts are based on stable valuations and estimates for strong cash flows and sustainable dividend yields, making Jumbo stock an attractive choice for investors. Detailed Report Jumbo, one of the leading retailers in Greece, operates in the sale of toys, baby products, gift items, household goods, stationery, seasonal and decorative items, books, and related products in Greece, Cyprus, Bulgaria, and Romania. This analysis focuses on the financial data and technical indicators of Jumbo S.A.'s stock, providing a comprehensive overview for investors and analysts. Technical Analysis Open: €25.24 High: €25.24 Low: €24.72 Close: €24.72 Moving Averages (EMA): EMA 20: €25.52 EMA 50: €26.05 EMA 100: €26.42 EMA 200: €26.54 Jumbo's stock price is below all major moving averages, indicating a downward trend in the short, medium, and long-term horizons. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI (14): 31.23, indicating that the stock is in the oversold zone. MACD: Histogram: 0.0070 MACD: -0.3640 Signal: -0.3711 The MACD indicates bearish momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line. Pivot Points Support Levels: S1: €24.82 S2: €24.30 S3: €23.84 Resistance Levels: R1: €25.89 R2: €26.26 R3: €26.78 The stock price is near the first support level, indicating potential reversal points. Financial Data Key Statistics: Market Capitalization: €3.43B Trading Volume: 123.75K (30-day average volume: 173.45K) P/E Ratio: 11.3x (below the Greek market average) Revenue Estimate: €34.14 Analyst Forecasts: Highest Estimate: €38.00 Lowest Estimate: €31.10 Average Estimate: €34.14 Analysts predict a 38.12% increase in stock price over the next year, based on current performance and future prospects. Valuation Estimate Jumbo's stock appears undervalued compared to its intrinsic value, based on analyst forecasts and market prices. Future Growth Key Information: Earnings Growth Rate: 5.8% annually Revenue Growth Rate: 7.1% annually Expected Return on Equity: 23.8% in 3 years Recent Updates: Target price increased by 7.7% to €33.89 (May 23) Target price increased by 7.3% to €33.76 (May 6) Target price increased by 8.1% to €28.50 (August 11) Target price increased by 8.4% to €27.64 (June 27) Past Performance Key Information: Earnings Growth Rate: 14.2% annually EPS Growth Rate: 14.2% annually Revenue Growth Rate: 6.2% annually Return on Equity: 22.8% Net Margin: 28.0% Jumbo has shown strong performance in previous years, with steady earnings and revenue growth, and high return on equity. Jumbo S.A. demonstrates solid performance and has good growth prospects. Despite the recent drop in stock price, analysts remain positive about the company's future, with predictions for significant stock price increase over the next year. The company continues to invest in new markets and improve the efficiency of its existing operations, making it an attractive choice for investors.
ATHEX:BELALong
by kgougakis
National Bank of Greece (NBG) - Comprehensive Analysis In one week from today, the annual general meeting of the shareholders of the National Bank of Greece (NBG) will convene, where, among other matters, they will decide on the distribution of a dividend for the first time in nearly 15 years, amounting to €0.37 (€0.36 net). NBG is currently attracting investment interest for two main reasons: Dividend Distribution: Investors are buying the stock to ensure they receive the dividend. Upcoming Privatization: The privatization is scheduled for the fall. There is a belief that the stock will recover from the dividend cut-off, as the placement for the remaining 18.39% held by the Hellenic Financial Stability Fund (HFSF) will not take place below €8. This is considered a safe bet, especially as recent analyses predict the stock price could rise even above €10. Axia: Raises the target price for the stock to €10.50 from €8.80 previously. UBS: Boosts the target price to €11. The analysis of technical indicators and financial data of the National Bank of Greece presents a positive outlook for the current and future trajectory of the stock. Technical Analysis Price: The current price is €8.186. The price has broken above the Fibonacci 0.618 level at €8.124, indicating upward momentum. Moving Averages (EMA): EMA 20: €7.967 EMA 50: €7.962 EMA 100: €7.912 EMA 200: €7.653 EMA 20 (€7.968): The price is above the 20-day EMA, indicating short-term upward momentum. EMA 50 (€7.962): The price is above the 50-day EMA, indicating medium-term upward momentum. EMA 100 (€7.912): The price is above the 100-day EMA, indicating long-term upward momentum. EMA 200 (€7.653): The price is above the 200-day EMA, indicating strong overall upward momentum. Relative Strength Index (RSI): RSI (14): 64.14, indicating that the stock is in the bullish zone but not yet overbought. MACD: Histogram: 0.0244 (positive, indicating upward momentum) MACD: 0.0325 (MACD line is above the signal line, indicating an upward trend) Signal: 0.0080 Pivot Points Support Levels: S1: €7.778 S2: €7.610 S3: €7.464 Resistance Levels: R1: €8.128 R2: €8.270 R3: €8.418 Central Pivot Point: P: €7.940 The price is above the central pivot point (P: €7.940), indicating an upward trend. The price is approaching the first resistance level (R1: €8.128) and has the potential to test higher resistance levels (R2: €8.270 and R3: €8.418). Conclusion Pivot Points: Upward Trend: The current price is above the central pivot point, indicating an upward trend in the market. Support and Resistance Levels: Immediate support at €7.778 (S1), with further support at €7.610 (S2) and €7.464 (S3) if the price falls. Immediate resistance at €8.128 (R1), with further resistance at €8.270 (R2) and €8.418 (R3) if the price continues to rise. Performance Metrics: 1 week: +3.65% 1 month: +4.31% 3 months: +16.47% 6 months: +18.12% Year to date: +30.17% 1 year: +32.06% Positive returns for all periods (1 week, 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, year to date, and 1 year) indicate a continuous and steady upward trajectory of the stock. The significant return over the past year (+32.06%) strengthens confidence in its bullish outlook. Overall Assessment: Based on the updated technical indicators, the stock of the National Bank of Greece continues to exhibit strong upward momentum. Specifically: The stock prices are above all significant moving averages (EMA 20, 50, 100, and 200), indicating a stable upward trend in the short-term, medium-term, and long-term horizons. The RSI is in a healthy bullish zone (63.90), suggesting that the stock is not overbought and has room for further growth. The positive MACD histogram and the fact that the MACD line is above the signal line reinforce the stock's bullish outlook. Conclusion: The National Bank of Greece appears to be in a solid upward trend based on both technical indicators and financial results. Investors may consider that the stock still has room for growth; however, they should closely monitor technical indicators and financial results to adjust their investment strategies accordingly.
ATHEX:ETELong
by kgougakis
1
Viohalco: Trading at half its value I would describe the situation with which the market values the giant industrial group of Viohalco (BIO) as ridiculous. That is where it was for the last time but now with the significant rise of the ElvalHalcor subsidiary it has ended. In other words, imagine what we will have to say when the princess of the group, Noval Property Development AEEAP, walks through the doors of the Hellenic Stock Exchange. Viohalco therefore currently has a capitalization of 1.61 billion euros at the same time that it controls 79.78% of Cenergy Holdings (CENER) and 84.78% of ElvalHalcor (ELXA). According to the recent capitalizations of these two subsidiaries, which are 1.375 billion euros for Cenergy and 882 million euros for ElvalHalcor, Viohalco's shareholding base has a proportionate value of 1.834 billion euros. That is, it is short by 224 million euros or another 0.83 euros in its share. However, the group also controls 81.4% of Noval, where it currently has a fair value of 550 million euros. We are talking about an amount of 447 million euros which adds another 1.73 euros to the group's share. In total, the said holdings are currently worth more than 2.284 billion euros, which if we divide it by the 259.18 million shares of Viohalco gives us 8.84 euros. And this number is only from the specific holdings since the group also has other strong subsidiaries such as Stomana, Sidenor and Erlikon which produce steel products, ELMEKE which provides research, development and innovation services, Teka Engineering which specializes in the installation and operation of industrial equipment, Vitruvit which produces ceramic and industrial mineral products and Aeiforos which is active in the recovery of natural resources, trade and processing of secondary raw materials as well as waste management services and environmental projects. The group even has a construction company, Ergosteel that specializes in industrial projects as well as office buildings with its clientele teeming with the largest industrial, manufacturing and pharmaceutical companies in Greece. So we could comfortably say that at the moment half of Viohalco is valued on the board. The leading metal processing industry in Europe with a turnover of more than 7 billion euros costs the board 1.6 billion euros when it should be on the threshold of 3 billion euros. Diagrammatically, now the stock after the upward breakdown of the resistance zone of 6 to 5.90 euros has opened a channel of communication with the highs it had reached last summer at 7.20 to 7.10 euros or a +14% from the current levels prices.
ATHEX:VIOLong
by manthos
JUMBO: A stock that despite the rise remains extremely cheapJUMBO: A stock that despite the rise remains extremely cheap The company's fund reaches 800 million euros, without having loans. This means, that with 130 million shares, it can continue to increase and give large dividends. In fact it is a large company in retail sales in Greece, which cannot compete with any other and which has been undervalued for so long ... Time has come to prove its value. An extraordinary dividend of 1.15 euros is planned for January, which is what it gave last year all year.
ATHEX:BELALong
by StockBlog
Elliot Wave analysis on LamdaHi! I'm just trying to learn Elliot Waves. That is an actual trade that I just took. I bought 50 pcs on 6.135, With a stop loss on 5.85 and a take profit on 6.95. 7 is a psychological number where I assume that the price will retrace. Completing the 3rd wave. Fitch has increased Greece to BB+ a few days ago that's why most Greek stock's took a bull run. Let's see if I actually learned something on Elliot Waves... In case you see a mistake please comment so I can correct my trading strategy and style...
ATHEX:LAMDALong
by Kontopodis_Emm