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Rebound is around the corner for Chinese developersLast week we discussed the scenario of Hong Kong/China equity rebound due to the political environment change in China. HSI did end up close above the May open, creating a hammer candle in the monthly chart, and stood atop the 50 days moving average. Both showed strong bullishness from the chart perspective (Last week note here: ) As a continuation of the rebound story, earlier there were some developments on the Chinese developers front, which there might be a distress revaluation opportunity for traders to make bets on . Update on Chinese Developers After almost 2 years since the Chinese government imposed “3 red lines” rules on developers, which later leaded to the Chinese high-yield bond collapse in 2021 (majority of Chinese high-yield are issued by the Chinese developer), on May-17 the Chinese government finally showed sign of relaxation on the crackdown, by supporting some developers to issue domestic bond to ease their cash insufficiency . This development is under the backdrop of Chinese economic slowdown, as well as poor monetary/fiscal policy transmission capability with weakened property market. As of today, there are 5 non-state-backed developers that have confirmed on the domestic bonds issue: Longfor (HKEX:960) Country Garden (HKEX:2007) Media Real Estate (HKEX:3990) CIFI Holding (HKEX:884) Seazen (HKEX:1030) Note that investors of the newly issued bond also have the option to get protection by purchasing the credit risk mitigation warrant (CRMW), of which China Securities Finance Corporation (state-owned) is the underwriter of the warrant . The important message here is that, in order for the Chinese government to take a “short-put” position, they must have vetted the Chinese developer names and shortlisted the above 5 companies for the most solid fundamentals (and political correctness). Essentially, the Chinese government is doing stock picking for us . Among this batch of developers, I would recommend Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007) . In the sector-wide distressed situation, companies with more deployable cash or financing capability actually have the optionality to acquire and consolidate weaker developers to strengthen their future market share. Longfor and Country Garden are the largest and healthiest financials among the list. Comparing Longfor (HKEX:960) and Country Garden (HKEX:2007), the former actually have demonstrated stronger confidence among investors as one can tell from the severeness of price decline for the passed year. Hence if you are a less active investor who wants to buy this idea, go for Longfor (HKEX:960); for those who have the bandwidth for active management, Country Garden (HKEX:2007) might have more room for trading around positions with leverage. Trading Plan for Country Garden (HKEX:2007) Albeit the fact that I am writing a long side execution plan, please note that the stock technically is still in a bear trend, which we still see selling pressure near 20 and 50 days moving average . Hence this is not a trend following, but reversal-plus-breakout play, where more time is needed for the turnaround and breakout from the downtrend resistant levels . Right now the stock is flirting around the 20 days moving average. One might want to place some protective bet at current level (in case of sharp upside movement with overnight news), or wait for the following 2 key level for turnaround confirmation: 5.4-5.8 : 50 days moving average and May-3 spike 6.75 : Rebound peak from March market plummet For the bearish trend to continue, the stock must go through the 2 recent troughs. According to the trader’s conviction to the rebound stock, one might choose to scale in (i.e. average down the position cost) or scale out (i.e. partial cut loss) the position at these levels: 4.1 : May-12 bottom 3.3 : Mar-16 bottom, lowest price made in march market plummet In terms of trading vehicle selection, apart from holding the stock outright, good news is that Country Garden (HKEX:2007) also has stock options available for trade. By using call option one can be immune from sharp drawdown in case of overnight bearish news, also better cash management for the natural leveraged nature of options. Note that Hong Kong listed stock options are less liquid compared to those in the US, I would recommend to choose expiration less than 3-4 months for narrower spread and more active quotation .
HKEX:2007Long
by geoffreyip523
Transportation - Marine Shipping; Strong Sector, Stronger 38771) Noticed that many stocks in this particular sector have been setting up quite nicely in both the HK and US equity markets. 2) In particular to the HK Market, things are starting to look better with some equities entering accumulation phases. The HSI also looks to finally start a new uptrend with higher lows formed. 3) SEHK: 3877 is setting up quite nicely with the initial shakeout mid march of 2022. Volume is starting to increase - clear signs of accumulation. 4) Price has now traded in a tight range between ($1.29, $1.34) - a Darvas box! Although overhead supply is right at $1.37, I do believe we might have enough fuel to punch through. 5) Call me ambitious but TP is at previous ATH of $1.76 - making this a risk to reward of about 1:4.
HKEX:3877Long
by cletibals
BABA should hold 83 then BO Channel or 70 will be double bottomBABA has been making a long downchannel which has to be broken to be really bullish. First it must hold the current 83 FIB level, then BO the downchannel at around 95. After that BABA will still face a big resistance zone at the 110 to 130 range. There will be a lot of sellers here which the new buyers must be willing to absorb in order for the price to go above this critical zone. Failure to hold the current 83 Fib level to see a double bottom for BABA at 70. This will be very very near the end of that big ABC correction. BABA is the top e-commerce company in China (Amazon of China but with a very low PE ratio after this crash). Not trading advice
HKEX:9988Long
by xtremerider8
2269.HK is going to fly ~ (1st target: 77.8, 2nd target: 90.05)2269.HK has experienced a long decline for more than 1 year due to local and oversea government policies, although its P&L has growth a lot. 2269.HK is going to complete a head and shoulder pattern within the last 70 days, and highly likely to fly in the near term. The first target will be 77.8 and second target will be 90.05. On the other hand, China government is likely to support health and medical industry just to ensure the GDP growth can be met ( 5-6% target this year).
HKEX:2269Long
by kcwilsonchu
1
Buy Modern Dental HK$3.4 Target Over HK$ 7.5Good Day Fellow investors! When looking for a company that is 1. Globally Diversified 2. Highly undervalued from a free cash flow perspective 3. Has decent growth potential (Over 10%) choices are limited! However Modern Dental does meet all of these criteria.. 1. Revenues are globally diversified with about 35% coming from Europe 25% USA and 40% Remainder of the world including a larger and larger share coming from mainland china. 2. Trading at about a P/E Ratio of 9. EV/EBITDA about 6. Free Cash Flow yield of about 15%. 3. Growth outlook is great. Chinese revenue grew at a rapid pace over the past couple of years but the outlook is even better. I am loking at this from a long term perspective and believe we can easily trade at HK$ 7.5 over the next coouple of years (And likely even sooner)
HKEX:3600Long
by kavijh