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Is the Evergrande crisis over?The looming collapse of China Evergrande Group (HKG:3333), the world’s most indebted property developer, has roiled financial markets for months, threatening a contagion with far-reaching implications on China and the wider economy. In the early months since Evergrande’s financial crisis came to light, Beijing stayed mum on the issue, although the People’s Bank of China pumped billions of yuan in liquidity in what was seen as an attempt to quell liquidity concerns. Over this time, Evergrande’s stock price slipped 95%, from ~25HKD to ~1.5HKD, where it has stagnated for all of 2022. Evergrande’s massive debt pileup Evergrande, once China’s second-largest real estate developer, is drowning in more than $300 billion in debts to suppliers, contractors, creditors and investors. The company’s crisis partly stemmed from the introduction of Beijing’s "three red lines" rule in 2020 that made it harder for developers to seek bank financing to fund their projects. Another Lehman Brothers moment The large exposure of Chinese banks like Minsheng Bank, Ping An Bank and Everbright Bank to Evergrande prompted many financial watchers to predict that Evergrande's debt crisis could extend beyond China’s property and financial markets, warning that it could spill over to the global markets similar to the Lehman Brothers collapse that resulted in the 2008 global financial crisis. These fears intensified as Evergrande missed payments on a number of onshore bonds. The world’s three major credit rating agencies have already declared the developer to be in default after missing on its bond interest payments late last year. However, some analysts have played down concerns of Evergrande being the next “Lehman moment,” as they expect Beijing’s policymakers to prevent the crisis from being a systemic risk. Beijing steps in to limit fallout To minimize the potential impact of Evergrande’s looming collapse, Beijing has stepped up its efforts, but without a state-led bailout in sight. Back in October, the Chinese central bank said the risk of Evergrande’s liabilities spilling over to the country’s financial sector is "controllable,” while confirming reports that relevant government agencies and local governments have been carrying out risk disposal and resolution work to mitigate a potential contagion. In recent weeks, a number of news outlets reported that some banks in China have lowered mortgage rates, offered subsidies and allowed developers to access their funds on escrow in an attempt to revive the housing market. Beijing also started urging state-owned developers to acquire some projects of troubled builders to help ease the sector’s liquidity crunch. Fitch Ratings recently said Chinese developers are poised to see more small-scale mergers and acquisitions and the impact on buyers’ leverage are predicted to be small "as they select projects with promising returns." Light at the end of the tunnel It may take months or years for the property sector to recover as developers continue to struggle with a cash crunch that prevents them from meeting their debt obligations. However, with Beijing’s subtle approach in reviving the property market, Evergrande’s recovery may be drawing near. In February, new home prices in 100 cities in China rose for the first time in two months, further recovering from the slump in November when prices contracted for the first time since 2015. Policy reforms could encourage home-buying this year as the government included the healthy development of the real estate sector in its government work report unveiled by Premier Li Keqiang over the weekend. Li said authorities will seek to promote the commercial housing market and stabilize house prices this year. Foreign investors that purchase bonds and other securities from Chinese builders should closely monitor developments surrounding Beijing’s policies for the sector.
HKEX:3333
by BlackBull_Markets
XPENGXPENG (9868) price action favors the short sellers. This because EMA10-EMA20 and MACD showing deadly crosses, a bearish sign. In addition, it also forms higher highs and higher lows since Dec 2021. Hence it is likely to further extend its downtrend and present short selling opportunities once HKD115.9 level broke thru. First downside objective is HKD103.4 while second downside objective is HKD87.6. Both levels are Fibonacci Extension 1.272 and 1.618 levels respectively, derived from high of HKD161.8 and low of HKD115.9. In contrasts, a daily close above HKD143 provide short term relief rally with upside resistance seen at HKD161.8 and HKD177.3.
HKEX:9868
by Boring_Trader
2022-02-23 00700Tencent Holdings’ valuation is relatively cheap now. Tencent’s logic is very simple. Conservatively, even if it is an infrastructure with a growth rate of only about 10%, it can also correspond to a price of around 430, with a margin of safety, but Tencent should be more than just a foundation. Facility, I think the market's concerns about antitrust are overdone, and I feel that Tencent's opportunity is similar to that of liquor during Prohibition. Of course, in terms of the future trend, it may not be very fast. Liquor was not fast in the past, but after many years, it is really a good position at a large level. Technically, there is currently a bullish Gat force. Let's keep going long.
HKEX:700Long
by adolphs
JICPT| Tencent in the late stage of accumulationHello everyone. It's been a while since I published ideas regarding Tencent. After analyzing the global market to identify the sweet spot to park the assets for my client, Tencent again got my attention. From the daily chart, we can see the key anchored level around HKD412 is well respected after massive sell-off with above the normal volume. In my opinion, Tencent is in the process of accumulation, perhaps, the late stage. The upper boundary of the sideway channel is HKD515 to HKD528. I'm looking for big size candle with high volume to take over it. By setting the alert, let's see how it reacts to the boundary this time. The next target after confirmed breakout is HKD644. What do you think? Give me a like if you're with me.
HKEX:700Long
by JICPT
7
Ping An (2318.HK) - Buy at minor correction Since the breaking out of the descending triangle on 6th Jan 2022, the up trend is confirmed with the Ichimoku heading for a three bullish crossover. However, some weakness is observed at HK$60.90 immediate resistance thus we can take this opportunity to buy at support. DM+ is seen sloping upwards while DM- is seen sloping down below the Average directional index. As such, we believe overall trend is tilting towards the bullish side.
HKEX:2318Long
by William-trading
China Telco Players - benefiting from 5G Technologywww.chinadaily.com.cn From a high of 88 in March 19, it has fallen to a low of 58 in early Dec this year. It has now break out from the descending channel on 16 Dec 19 and there is more upside to come. The 5G technology drive will benefits the few big Telco players in China, China Mobile being one of them. This is one of the key areas that the Central Government is paying lots of attention and what US is trying to compete with China now. www.cnbc.com
HKEX:941Long
by dchua1969