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Sunac China Holdings: A Distressed Developer’s Road to RecoveryThe Chinese real estate market has been in turmoil, with developers facing liquidity crises and mounting debt. Sunac China Holdings Limited (1918.HK), once a dominant player, has struggled to regain stability following severe financial distress. After defaulting on its offshore debt in 2022, Sunac embarked on an extensive restructuring process to avoid collapse. Financial Troubles and Restructuring Efforts In 2023, Sunac successfully completed a $9 billion offshore debt restructuring, converting part of its obligations into long-term bonds and equity. The restructuring reduced immediate repayment pressures but did not eliminate financial risks. By the end of 2024, Sunac’s total assets stood at approximately RMB 880 billion ($123 billion), while total liabilities remained elevated at RMB 972 billion ($136 billion). Sales performance has been weak, reflecting the broader industry downturn. Sunac’s contracted sales for 2024 reached RMB 104 billion ($14.5 billion), down from RMB 523 billion ($73 billion) in 2021, highlighting the impact of regulatory crackdowns and reduced consumer demand. However, its cash balance improved slightly to RMB 38 billion ($5.3 billion), aided by asset disposals and government easing measures. Market Conditions and Government Support China’s property sector remains fragile, but recent government policies offer some support. Mortgage rates have been lowered, and restrictions on home purchases in key cities have eased, which could provide a demand boost. Sunac, with its extensive portfolio, stands to benefit from these policy adjustments, though recovery will be gradual. Stock Performance and Investment Risks Sunac’s stock has been highly volatile. Trading at HKD 1.80 in early 2025, it remains far below its peak of HKD 42 in 2020. Despite restructuring, Sunac’s high debt burden and ongoing project delays pose significant risks to investors. Credit rating agencies still classify Sunac’s bonds as distressed, with yields reflecting continued default concerns. Investment Outlook For high-risk investors, Sunac presents a speculative opportunity. If China’s property sector stabilizes and Sunac can improve sales, there is upside potential. However, liquidity risks remain high, and its ability to meet long-term obligations is uncertain. Investors should approach with caution, considering the ongoing financial and regulatory challenges.
HKEX:1918
by juliakhandoshko
Is Alibaba still a BUY ?Now, from being ostracised by the Central government to being in the limelight after 3 years, we are now seeing Alibaba returning to stage once again and capturing the hearts of "love and hate" retail investors. Those who had bought it around 200 price level back then would be relieved in some way to see the share price slowly inching back to their purchase price and their paper loss amount reducing. Hope this gives them a good night sleep. There are many school of thoughts in investing and to say that one school is better than the others would be biased and self centred. There are factors like risk tolerance, time frame of investment, capital, knowledge of market, etc. If you are in your mid 50s, would you want to risk say 10K to invest in this stock? Yes, if you believe in its growth story and you have a higher risk appetite and if the price falls back to 80 , you are OK and would not have sleepless night. It is too simplistic to say that people in this age category should invest in dividend stocks - a broad base of market categorisation. However, if you are in your 20s but you are a thrifty little squirrel and have not heard of the stock market, fearful even to do paper trade, then it is wiser not to put even 1k in this growth stock. At less than 2% dividend, you are better off parking your funds in the government bonds. So, to answer a straight YES or NO without considering the background of the investors would be putting the cart before the horse. Everybody situation is different and those who have bought are somewhat biased else they would not have bought it and those who think all China stocks are uninvestable would naturally stay away even this tech giant in China. For me, I am riding on the rally and awaiting for it to pull back to 120-125 price level before accumulating. Please DYODD
HKEX:9988Long
by dchua1969
6
Concord New Energy (00182.HK) Signals a Potential ReversalConcord Energy, headquartered in Singapore, is a Chinese power generation company operating in mainland China, Australia, New Zealand, Spain, Italy, the USA, and Canada. With global energy consumption on the rise, particularly in China and the USA, increasing electricity demand driven by data centers and AI computations is expected to benefit power generation companies. This counter offers a 7% dividend yield, and the chart indicates a reversal test pattern. I maintain a positive outlook on this counter.
HKEX:182Long
by ZhengQian
Sensetime (HKEX) Long Term Uptrend with Bullish Flag PatternWeekly - Long term starting to trending UP. and Bullish. Look like forming Bullish Flag Pattern. Need to break above 194 (Turtle Buy Signal) and 200 (Psycological Level) to expose next pit stop at 300. MCDX Selling Volume (MCDX Green Bar) reduced to 15% - Good sig. MCDX Buying Volume looks active increasing to 66%. - Goog sign Sell Signal was voided by +ve FiFT with BoD signal Support zone 120-150. Look for BoD at 150 zone. Or BoB above 194-200.
HKEX:20
by kgiap123
BiliBili $HKEX:9626: Bullish-Is This the Perfect Buy OpportunityBiliBili HKEX:9626 : Bullish Breakout – Time to Buy? Recent Market Movement BiliBili HKEX:9626 is showing strong bullish momentum as of February 13, 2025, breaking past the HK$152.8 resistance with high trading volume ( white text and circle ). The double bottom pattern suggests a possible long-term uptrend, making this an interesting setup for investors ( Green text ). Buying Strategy Buying range: HK$129 - HK$177.1 Ideal entry: HK$141 - HK$161 (after breaking resistance) Supporting indicators: Double bottom & Reverse Head and Shoulders patterns Potential Growth & Risks At HK$149.7, BiliBili’s price is near historic lows, far below its all-time high of HK$1054. This signals a strong upside potential if the trend continues. However, a key stop-loss level to watch is HK$129 to limit risk. If price drops below HK$149.7, caution is advised Risk estimate: ~13.41% downside Final Thoughts BiliBili looks poised for a potential rally, but risk management is key. If the bullish trend holds, this could be a great long-term opportunity. Disclaimer: This is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always do your own research before investment
HKEX:9626Long
by samleecomp
4
Win some and lose some, move on - Pop Mart I first discovered this stock somewhere in November last year when my daughter and I were out shopping in town. We came across its retail shop in Orchard and went in to take a look. I have never seen such toys before and were amazed more by the crowd than anything. They were mostly teenagers and long queues were forming when we left. Days later, I went to a nearby shopping mall to get some groceries and again I saw its vending machine. I took a picture to remind myself to check it out. It was around the 40 dollars range and I wanted it to pull back before taking a position. In the end, I did not and sad to say, the price has gone up almost 2.5x !!!! Weeks later, I was surprised to see more articles coverage on this company, add salt to my wound for not buying and there were even some local TV coverage as well (reaching a critical mass for the media to take notice - a good sign). It is always easy to look at things on hindsight - what if it had gone south and went 2.5x down? Would I not sit back and say, how wise of me, haha. Live and let live, no point regrets, move on to the next better player in town.
HKEX:9992
by dchua1969
1
728 - 7 months SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE══════════════════════════════ Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot trading opportunities based solely on the development of CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS 🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝 ══════════════════════════════ Hello Traders ✌ After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that: - it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment; - since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant; - the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts; For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart. Thank you all for your support 🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER "A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist" ═════════════════════════════ ⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠ Breakout Area, Target, Levels, each line drawn on this chart and any other content represent just The Art Of Charting’s personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purposes. Therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Entry Point, Initial Stop Loss and Targets depend on your personal and unique Trading Plan Tactics and Money Management rules, Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk. ═════════════════════════════
HKEX:728Long
by TheArtOfCharting
Buy 0883.hk CNOOC LIMITED @ HK $18.1Buy CNOOC here due to the following technical and fundamental reasons: Technical -50% Retracement of the last move up - Support at 50 Day moving average at about $18.00 Fundamental - 2014 Forward PE ratio of 5.5 - Growth in South China sea fields. - Recent China govt policy support of the stock market - Highly supportive dividend yield of 8% - Strong balance sheet - Still a very solid production growth outlook Risks - Extreme geopolitical tension may cause foreigners to be blocked out of trading Chinese equities, even if listed in Hong Kong (Like happened with Gazprom) Target: HK $28 within 1 year Stop: HK$ 15.00 Risk / Reward: 1:3
HKEX:883Long
by kavijh
Simple13 Trading IdeaI foresee the Hang Seng Index (HSI) showing short-term upside potential. As a result, I am expanding my watchlist to include HSI stocks, and one stock that has caught my attention is Lenovo. 📊 Why Lenovo? 1️⃣ Technical Setup: – The 10 EMA recently crossed above the 20 EMA, signaling the start of an uptrend. – The stock is currently pulling back, finding support at the 10 EMA and aligning with the Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level, making it a favorable entry point. 2️⃣ Fundamental Criteria: – Positive PE: Lenovo meets my requirement for having a positive price-to-earnings ratio, which is not excessively high. – Good ROE: Ensures the company generates efficient returns for shareholders. 📈 Trading Plan: – Entry Price: Current price at HKD 9.83 – Target Price: HKD 11.5 – Stop Loss: HKD 9.45 This setup offers a solid risk-to-reward ratio and aligns with my criteria for both technical and fundamental strength. What’s your take? Is Lenovo on your radar, or do you have other HSI stocks to recommend? Let’s discuss! 💬📊 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Conduct your own research before making investment decisions. HKEX:992
HKEX:992
by Simple13_Trading
XIAOMI (1810): Another All-Time High Surpassed!A new all-time high has been reached 🎉 XIAOMI has been surging non-stop since August 2024, with our position now up 180% since our entry back in March. We are taking our next profit here and letting the rest run. Xiaomi experienced significant growth in 2024, bolstered by China’s economic development and government support. The Chinese government implemented subsidies to stimulate demand for electronics, heavily favoring the stock. These policies aimed to strengthen domestic consumption and accelerate technological modernization. In March 2024, Xiaomi introduced its first EV, the SU7 sedan. By November, the company exceeded its initial targets, raising its annual delivery forecast to 130,000 vehicles. Technically, it is safe to say that we are trading in a wave 3, but the key question remains: for how long and what price level will it target? Analyzing the chart, it makes the most sense to anticipate a very large and sharp wave 3, with the same dynamics for wave ((3)). While the possibility of even higher surges exists, historical patterns suggest the likelihood of a rounding top formation as multiple waves come to an end. We don’t believe our entry level will ever be retested, but we remain cautious with new entries for now, closely monitoring the chart for further developments.
HKEX:1810Long
by freeguy_by_wmc
12/27/24 - how i'm thinking about '25 and playsdearest friends thanks for following my stream of thoughts starting mid way this year. my publishing started as a way to "log" my thinking when i encountered new names to both hold myself accountable and not repeat my process, as had been the case many times before. and i figured... why not make it public, in case it added any value to the never ending game and puzzle we call "markets" (infinite quotations and IYKYK). judging by many of the likes, comments, follows and of course DMs (my favorite! you guys know who you are)... i really enjoyed it. as we turn the page into '25 1/ it's important to remember that what worked in '24 won't necessarily work in '25. however, for stories and factors that remain secular growers, there's no reason to believe they shouldn't offer further opportunity at the right prices 2/ we will face unknown unknowns. most of them, usually fake and g&y, will affect the tape and cause all sorts of bent out of shape emotions. we've all been there. but that's why it's important to show up, do the work... sunshine and rainbows or halloween at Diddy's. what's important is to have a plan and use the trading session to act, not react. and when you're confused... you're probably not alone, and sometimes the best thing to do, is nothing. 3/ technology is changing our lives at such a rapid pace and (working inside the world of Bitcoin and AI)... it concerns me a bit that most people have very little idea what's happening. while those of us who follow markets (as well), can discern these tides as the mkts are forward looking, even the markets, i believe, are not entirely pricing in this disruption for a number of reasons and the major one remains the idea that the dollar is the ultimate denominator. maybe i'll start at this (last sentence) to share my book into '25. what is the main way i'm positioning? - 3 themes. Bitcoin. AI. Energy. - concentrated - math and valuation matters to me when we look at the non mag7's (or even ex-US) in '24, it has become clear that the dollar milkshake is the best drink on the planet (for now). and with good reason. the tech moats built here are consuming the world, whether it be Google, Apple or Nvidia (or Tesla, or ... fill in the blank). even the incoming president wants to "make" Bitcoins in the US. that's the right idea. but one has to remember that we now live in such a printer go brrr "or else" world, that it's important to identify the assets that will either grow the fastest and are also not accurately priced for this growth runway. easier said than done. but many of these moats are essentially uninterruptible movies, especially as hardware now represents an (again) important input to these stories. so the denominator that i describe in the beginning of this paragraph (USD) is secondary to these asset-level denominators "money". *we have been taught that the USD is "money" and while that is technically true, it is is increasingly less true. the USD is increasingly a currency-only and the S&P, assets with harder supplies, like BTC are beginning to take a more center stage in this definition* so the goal is to be on the lookout for "money" that outperforms all other denominators. does your tech stock grow at 10% but cost you 30x PE? (like NASDAQ:AAPL ?) will that be a better "money" than NASDAQ:NVDA growing at 50% and trading at 30x PE? of course time will tell, but likely... NASDAQ:NVDA will outperform $aapl. so this is the logic. 1/ top pick remains $gdlc. it's about 25% of my book. many of you remember when it was 50%, 60% ("ALL IN" post). you're familiar with my sizing/ managing risk. and it's worked. the discount has gone from 35-40% to 10% today. it's still an excellent way to own CRYPTOCAP:BTC (about 70% of this fund is CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) and likely gets converted into an ETF in '25. but BTC remains in a precarious spot for now and i'd like to see some ST resolution on the downside before taking the size higher. more on this in future posts or if you'd want to debate in comments. 2/ second pick is $nxt. the ticker i've written most about. thesis is: solar represents largest incremental generation source for next 5-10 yrs. trackers are critical infra to these industrial deployments. there is no better solution than NASDAQ:NXT as they continue to take mkt share across the board. backlog is growing QoQ. earnings beat after earnings beat. 10% fcf yield, about 100% fcf conversion (NI->FCF) and ceo is a rockstar. it's a $60 stock today trading at $35 and at the whim of the ST flows in 1/ solar denial esp w Trump (but elon is big solar proponent), 2/ many solar names aren't best investments so water down the appetite for the passive flows/ ETFs ST and 3/ it's a rates-energy sensitive sector for now. however, NASDAQ:NXT has done an excellent job bucking all these trends and i remain confident the stock will hit its stride and don't want to keep a small position with where valuations are today (near floor IMHO) 3/ NYSE:TSM and NASDAQ:NVDA complex. i own both. just wrote about NASDAQ:NVDA this evening. NYSE:TSM is the only way all these next gen chips get built. AI/ GPU, CPU... ASICs (Bitcoin miners, among others). there is no second best. growth is 30%+, FCF yields are 5%+... "but muh taiwan risk". yeah. it's there, so what. size accordingly, be prepared. and there's $nvda. which while NYSE:TSM is 20x PE, NASDAQ:NVDA is 35x PE, but grows at 50% a year. there is no second best here either. i prefer to own the winners until proved otherwise in semis-related. the idea is to own the best verticals... and the top dog, such that valuation permits. both check these boxes. 4/ $uber. complicated, but also becoming a larger position in my book. AV (autonomous vehicles a la Musk) have taken the shine off this cash flow monster. nevermind their partnerships w/ Waymo and how AV will likely grow the transportation pie (at the expense of vehicle mfg's, NOT trips), but this will take time and the overhang is there. reminds a bit of the coof in '20 and travel names. took a while for the market (and people) to figure it all out... and resume w/ daily activities. the idea w/ NYSE:UBER is that 1/ AV isn't a winner take all market and Uber is the best demand aggregator out there and 2/ AV likely grows the transportation pie b/c cost to move is a fraction of vehicle ownership today. so you'd likely have one less vehicle as an example, and as a result, your uber, or robotaxi trips probably 10-20x in a year. so even if take rate is ultimately lower, the pie is multiples larger. anyway. big cash flow generator, growing high teens. CFO speaking recently a lot of strength going into '25. travel into YE has been solid. 4Q results likely great. stock cheap. 5/ "the bag". stuff I trade around, but worth flagging (and i won't get into shorts). this changes. but FOR NOW, i own... NASDAQ:LYFT , NASDAQ:BTDR , NYSE:S , NU, HIMS, NASDAQ:OKTA , NASDAQ:PDD , $TMDX. no particular order and not disclosing size b/c that would be distracting as i trade these around (e.g. PDD and HIMS were just re-added today lol) and a healthy 30% cash balance. in case of a dippity do dah at some pt in 1Q. many of my names are ITM C's (long dated) which allows me a full gross book... while maintaining liquidity. so there's that. it's been a good year. family, friends. jesus is lord. but let's turn the page. let's not rest on what's happened. onward and upward. love u all happy new year V PS - I picked this ticker to post on bc it made me lol :)
HKEX:82Long
by VROCKSTAR
3
CNOOC Limited (1D): Bullish trendI believe CNOOC Limited is currently in price consolidation. After experiencing a downward journey lasting one and a half months, the stock has reached a strong support zone and is showing signs of reduced volume. Entering at this level offers an attractive risk-to-reward ratio. If my analysis is correct, using the upper yellow line as an exit point would be the optimal strategy. Feel free to share your thoughts! Wishing you success in your investments.
HKEX:883Long
by Nirksan
Accumulating more of this company, MeituanAlready the market leader in food delivery in China, this amazing company is set to grow further. Inflationary or deflationary environment, people still have to eat and at today's 10-20 set meal being pushed out , the consumer's review on its platform become a first seek out approach to eating out/in. On top of that, people are also using this app to order travel tickets , concert tickets etc. I am equally excited about its investment in the drones sectors where it would replace some of the manual delivery workers in harder to reach destinations - mountaintops, rural villages where it is difficult to travel by road. I hope it would come down to the accumulation zone so I could add more shares. Please DYODD
HKEX:83690Long
by dchua1969