Bearish Divergence IndicationCUAN has been experiencing significant trading volume, particularly after its inclusion in the FTSE index. Given its strong uptrend, it is important to be cautious of potential reversals, especially since the current price is near its all-time high. A bearish divergence is observed on the 1-hour chart using the MACD indicator, as the candlestick pattern shows an upward trend while the MACD line indicates a downward trend. This divergence could signal a minor correction within the major uptrend, with a potential price pullback to the first support level (13,675 - 13,500). This potential correction presents an opportunity to enter new positions at a more attractive price, considering the average market price of big funds at 12,138, based on accumulation since December 12, 2024. However, this bearish signal would be more confirmed if the MACD line crosses below the signal line.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for general information purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Investment decisions should be made based on an individual's specific financial situation and after consulting with a qualified financial advisor. The author is not responsible for any investment losses
On the way to Devidend MomentumThe historical track record indicates that the final dividend share for BBRI typically occurs in March. This presents an opportunity to strategically position our portfolio. We can either aim to capture the dividend payout or capitalize on the potential price pullback that often follows the dividend distribution (At ex-date candle gap). To maximize our entry point, we can wait for BBRI to reach its nearest weekly support level, as it is currently trading close to it and being strong support. This approach allows us to potentially acquire shares at a discounted price, especially considering the current downtrend.
BBNI Complex Correction?The banking rally at the start of December turns out to be a fakeout after all. Today BBNI gapped down and closed just 1 tick above today's low, with HEAVY volume. This shows that BBNI, and most probably other banking stocks haven't found their bottom yet.
If this scenario were to succed, then we will see a rally to welcome the dividend season.
ALDO - CUP WITH HANDLEIDX:ALDO (CUP WITH HANDLE)
28-10-2024
(+):
1. Low risk entry point, first time the stock showing it’s buying point
2. Volume dries up on handle
3. Stock showing it’s strength while market is corrected
4. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
5. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
6. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
7. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
8. RS Rating is over 70 (82)
(-):
1. Not really confirmed Stage 2, there is high that need to break out at price 520
Has SMGR Finished Its 5 Wave Down Move?SMGR to me looks like it might have finished the large 5 wave move. I checked on other charting website that it already has a bullish divergence between the third and the fifth wave, which is a good possibility that the larger 5 wave move has finished.
We should observe how it plays out for the next couple of weeks. If it bounces and forms an A wave with good structure and volume, then we can wait for the B wave in order to ride the C wave.
Put on watchlist to set the Buy PosistionPTRO has been on a strong uptrend for over 1 and a half years since 2023, climbing above MA 200. I found it's perfectly a double-bottom pattern that indicates the continuation of a bullish move. We can put PTRO on our watchlist and use a wait-and-see approach to set a proportional Buy position once it breaks its neckline and hits the nearest resistance to reach around 3000 IDR.
BBRI Eyes Key Resistance Levels After Breaking DowntrendIn the daily timeframe chart of Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI), it is evident that the price has successfully broken out of the descending channel that previously restricted its movement. After breaking the resistance at 4,100, the price shows potential for further strengthening, with the next target at the 4,510 resistance level. If the bullish momentum continues, the subsequent target lies at the 4,800 resistance level. The 200 SMA at 4,898 is still above the current price, indicating a long-term bearish trend. However, the recent price movement suggests the potential for a short-term trend reversal toward an upward trend. The key support level currently stands at 4,100, serving as a critical area to maintain the bullish sentiment.
CLEO (VCP - 28W 24/7 3T)Position update: December 20, 2024.
Key factors:
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. Confirmed stage 2 uptrend.
3. Has gone through its majority line of supply.
4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +125% while the index remains nowhere.
5. High relative strength.
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market.
7. Both breakouts accompanied with a decent volume.
Considerations: The current market environment remains challenging, as it fails to sustain a bullish trend and continues making lower lows. However, this is the only stock that is setting up properly in the current market.
This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.
PBID - CUP-COMPLETION CHEATIDX:PBID (3C)
14-10-2024
(+):
1. Low risk entry point
2. Volume dries up
3. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
4. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
5. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
6. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
7. RS Rating is over 70 (86)
(-):
1. Not really in Stage 2-a uptrend
2. No big volume on the breakout
UNTR - CUP WITH HANDLEIDX:UNTR CUP WITH HANDLE
13-12-2024
(+):
1. Low risk entry point on nice drifting handle
2. Price above MA 50 > 150 > 200 over 10 weeks
3. Price is within 25% of 52 weeks high
4. Price is over 30% of 52 weeks low
5. 200 day MA trending up over 1 month
6. RS Rating is over 70 (79)
7. Price break major downtrend, it's mean the stock started on Stage 2 uptrend
(-):
1. The stock is slow mover, it will take a while to reach the target
2. The volume when the stock is breaking out not quite big
Note:
Volume not dries up cause of big capital stock, some of big capital stocks doesn't need to dries up their volume
PANI - LOW CHEATPosition Update: December 6, 2024
Key factors:
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. The stock offers a low cheat, a creative entry.
3. The stock moves so rapidly in the last couple months.
4. A 30% pullback from its all-time high indicates a normal profit-taking phase within the context of a broader uptrend.
5. High relative strength, outperforming the general market.
5. The stock is moving on its own universe and marching to its own drummer.
6. Volume diminishes during pauses, indicating less supply coming to the market.
7. The breakout was confirmed with a notable surge in volume, reflecting strong buying interest.
Consideration : The current market environment remains challenging, with broader indices showing uncertain and inconsistent behavior, failing to sustain a bullish trend. This creates a "hard penny" environment, where gains are harder to secure and require precision.
This is a creative early buy in anticipation of a possible cup-with-handle formation. The current setup presents an opportunity to establish a position at a low-risk entry while awaiting the potential development of a handle in the coming weeks.
BBRI Is Going To Bottom in Mid-DecemberAfter a constant barrage of selling from March until June, and then quite of a rebound from 4100 to 5600 (almost 40%), BBRI continues to dive almost everyday since mid-September. This is supported by the huge foreign outflow BBRI has been suffering. Last Friday, BBRI's foreign outflow amounts to IDR823 billion. To put into perspective, IHSG Friday foreign outflow is IDR1.6 trillion, which means BBRI accounts for more than half of the outflow from IHSG.
Technical wise, BBRI has now constantly being traded under its 200 day moving average for almost 3 months. BBRI will most likely complete the (iii) wave of the C wave next week around 4100. Volume on last Friday's trading is relatively large. This means selling has not eased yet. I believe BBRI will bottom under 4000 ; 3700-3800
NEST (VCP - 7W 8/3 3T)Position Update: December 6, 2024
Key factors:
1. Low-risk entry point.
2. A first proper and buyable base after an IPO.
3. Has gone through its majority line of supply.
4. Moving on its own drummer, the stock went up +96% while the index remains the same spot.
5. High relative strength stock.
6. Volume dries up as less supply coming to the market.
7. The breakout was confirmed with a notable surge in volume
Considerations: The current market environment remains challenging, with broader indices showing uncertain and inconsistent behavior, failing to sustain a bullish trend.
This is a quintessential VCP with clear contractions and a defined entry point. I’d like to see if it can hold up and follow through from here.