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NZME profit taking opportunityThanks for viewing, I am not sure if this is of wide appeal. NZME is a media Company that caught my attention last year due to the share price declines having appeared to have out-paced any revenue declines in an industry in a global slow down-trend. I was eyeing the equity at the 0.40 level at the start of the year but felt there was still another leg down - just based on Elliot Wave. New Zealand has done an exceptional job of controlling the health crisis, and gained a lot of notoriety, but is in a wait-and-see position now as the rest of the world are facing some rather serious looking health and debt issues. There is also the question of opening up the economy to travel again, no idea when that can happen - although I view NZME as somewhat insulated from these issues. In march 2020 NZME was down over 82% from its post IPO 2017 highs and got as low as $0.18 a share. Due to the big price drops it had a rather juicy looking potential dividend, should dividends remain at or close to 2019 levels. However, NZME had already suspended its dividends due to a very high debt level. But I still saw a bounce potential, as media Companies are generally thought to be 'recession resistant' due to Companies normally increasing marketing budgets in a recession. I am getting the impression that this has not eventuated in this case, as everyone is just in survival mode. Anyway, despite a 13% drop in revenue in the first half of 2020, net profit was up, and they posted a very strong reduction in their debt position - hence the bounce. Expectations; after such a long and deep price collapse I do not expect NZME to set heading for higher highs. A base needs to be formed. So I see a 3 wave A that is coming to and end, and will be followed by a price decline and a re-test of the March lows (even though I don't expect a lower low I have decided to take profit). After the low re-test, we can consider the chance of a proper retracement up to the $0.70 level, for example. Despite some good news NZME has some big problems like; - A significant majority of their assets are "intangible assets" from their newspaper and radio brand acquisitions, so if there are significant write-downs in these assets that could materially affect the balance sheet. Considering that when these assets were acquired, the world was a much different, and likely more optimistic place - it may well eventuate that the purchase prices don't make a lot of sense in today's context. That is just my feeling, based on the vulnerability of this organisation to such a scenario. -General down-drafts in the newspaper and radio sectors, despite their investments in streaming and online delivery there are still big challenges. - There doesn't actually need to be bad news from NZME for the price to decline now. I am expecting a more generalised draw-down of global equities. If that view holds, NZME may well be caught in the trend regardless of how well they are doing, as people unlock untapped collateral. I expect NZME to return to paying dividends either in late 2020, or in 2021, and that will help. I see rather strong technical reasons to sell lining up; - The 1:1 extension of the June 2020 high (of $0.35 )( has been exceeded - at $0.46. Wave A often does a 1:1 of the first wave (April to May) up. - There is rather strong bearish RSI divergence forming - when higher highs in price are displayed as lower highs in the RSI. I pay attention to this especially when the RSI is already "overbought" i.e. above 70 and is pushed below 70 while the price is making higher highs. An RSI divergence often precedes turning-points in charts. - On the 17th and 18th of September, the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (of the full price decline from 2017 levels) showed strong resistance. - MACD histogram is trending downwards. - The MACD moving averages seem to be thinking about crossing-over to the downside. - I am already up 80%, in a very short time-frame, so I don't want to be too greedy and end up losing some or all of my gains. If it goes a lot higher after I sell tomorrow (market sell half on market open and limit sell the rest at $0.51) I will be able to live with it (I can see $0.51 as a short-term possibility based on the 1.618 extension of the 28th Aug to 7th Sept price rise). I hope I am not being too pessimistic in my outlook. But I see a few reasons that "line up" without much technical or fundamental causes for too much bullishness. I hope you appreciate how transparent I am being. This really isn't a big money position, despite my conviction in entering the position, I ended up allocating far more to poorly performing equities. In fact, the worse performing, the more I allocated. Overall, this is the second position I am exiting in 2020 after selling Just Life for ~+70% but overall I am basically level for the year. So wish me luck and I'll wish you luck too.
NZX:NZMShort
by flyinkiwi10
Short term Bearish View for AirNZ ,with possible upside long.Short position :Clear Head and shoulder pattern emerging for the daily indicating a big Bear flag,This is most likely due to the 900million injection the government has given to Airnz with its hopes to get travel back mid may-June this unfortunately failed as covid-19 took grip over air NZ travel following months.giving us the big head and following the second lock down giving us the right shoulder and damaging market psychology of investors. RSI :even on the right shoulder we couldn't break the 60 RSI and hit heavy resistance indicating bears winning this one MACD: is indicating a new trend most defiantly Bearish as for Price action:short term 1.10-1.15 range as for Long position:Monthly Triangle pattern we can see sideways momentum,and possible big break out by 2022,Maybe around this time the worldwide covid-19 curve will be drastically lessened and the air new Zealand Market can flourish.This overarching triangle pattern will be creating a huge amount of volatility around 2021 in my opinion. In conclusion while covid19 is still prevelant and mainly the big fumble of the 900million dollar injection in hopes of covid 19 not crippling air travel as thought has caused Airnz short term stocks to continue its bearish trend.Possibly by march 2021 we can see possible uptrend to the market as volatility will increase as it reaches closer to the end of a greater overall market trend.
NZX:AIRLong
by Glo1235122
AIRNot going to be seen as a safe investment for a while yet for sure no one traveling Businesses will Zoom more Travelers won't want to travel if they run the chance of being Quarantined for 14 days each way i see then dropping to 90c Intrinsic Value is $2.16 but that was based before Corona. Candles Indicate Selling pressure has entered Return to previous Level Zone is still making Lower Highs Financially they are sound as a NZ Dollar but Profit Margins only 3% not much Earnings have been dropping each year since 2016 really Thats my Opinion but the Market often doesn't make sense keep an eye on all companies for the next runner Super Funds pick on 1 or 2 and run them up then often drop them just a as quick.
NZX:AIRShort
by NZ_Shareman
5
ATM Stock Research - Reiterates BUY on KPG @ $1.02ATM Stock Research Kiwi Property Group KPG – Technical Analysis Summary- KPG fell from its peak of $1.59 in January to the lows of $0.74 in March as the market wide sell out took place across the globe. Since then the stock has retraced by almost $0.30 cents. ATM Stock Research gave a BUY recommendation on KPG in its Top 10 Stocks Special recovery report at $0.90 cents on 4th April. Since then the stock is up by almost 10 %. With high conviction ATM reiterates BUY on Kiwi Property Group at $1.02 cents to all our members and readers. The stock is largely exposed to high risk retail sector we think the market has already priced in all the risk involved. The stock is trading well below its NTA of $1.26 and hence presents a great opportunity for medium term Capital Gains. Our Fundamental analysis shows that the company will be in position to also reinstate its Dividend payments in the future and then the NTA level should become the new support price. The chart also depicts there is a short-term resistance @ $1.16 and this should be broken quickly. From here KPG will gradually move to test the $1.26 mark, the crucial point on the charts. As the normality will prevail sooner than later the chart shows it is lined up to move towards the $1.40 resistance in the medium term. We recommend Average in strategy to ATM clients to build position in this high-quality / high-risk stock. atmstrategy.co.nz
NZX:KPGLong
by ATMstockresearch
3
ATM Stock Research - Re Initiates BUY on FBU ATM Stock Research FBU Tech analysis Summary – Around 23rd of May as the emotional selloff was at its peak FBU stocks were sold off heavily and touched the lows of $3.05. The aftermath recovery was short-lived, the stock retraced back from the highs of $4.24 to now @ $3.17. As the gradual ramp up in construction activity unfolds during level 2 and will speed up eventually in Level 1, we see a high-risk investment opportunity for our clients. ATM Stock Research re initiates high risk BUY on FBU @ $3.17 for all its readers. The Chart shows that the stock is oversold at the current levels and another recovery is due and as the stocks will move up towards its first resistance @ $3.40. Once this resistance is broken the Medium-Term resistance we see is @ $3.70. As most of the negativity is already priced in the Stock, we recommend a high risk BUY. atmstrategy.co.nz
NZX:FBULong
by ATMstockresearch