Eye Keypoints for Potential Reversal (Technicals + Fundamentals)In the past several weeks, we've observed the following market movements:
1. First Uptrend: Over 23 weeks (161 days), the price increased from around 64 to 124 with a substantial volume of 438.94M.
2. First Downtrend: Following this, the price declined over 11 weeks (77 days) from 124 to 108, with a volume of 237.994M.
3. Second Uptrend: The price then rebounded over 18 weeks (126 days) from 107 to 168, supported by a volume of 319.661M.
Currently, we are in the 11th week of the latest downtrend, where the price has decreased from 168 to around 140, with a volume of 282.442M.
Key Insights:
The current downtrend mirrors the previous downtrend in duration (11 weeks) and volume.
The proximity of the current volume to past downtrends suggests we may be nearing a reversal point.
If historical patterns hold, we might anticipate a potential price rebound beginning within the next week or two.
Next Steps:
Monitor for an increase in volume (towards the 300M+ range) to confirm a reversal signal.
Target a potential price high of around 200 to complete this cycle if the upward trend resumes.
Furthermore , if we expect a dividend of 30 Rs next year and the expected interest rate is 15% , then the target price based on the dividend can also be calculated as follows:
Target Price = Expected Next Year Dividend / Expected Next Year Interest Rate
Target Price = 30 / 0.15 = 200 Rs
Conclusion:
While the current short-term trend is bearish (11 bars area), the increased volume hints at a possible reversal soon. With a projected dividend of 30 Rs next year and an expected interest rate of 15%, the target price based on dividends would be 200 Rs. This fundamental target supports the technical signals suggesting potential upward movement. Proper risk management and self-study should be incorporated.
