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Three times the charm for shorts on OPL?Telecom sector in Poland is not really popular lately. As I recall the aggregating index WIG_TELE got removed due to not interesting, following modern trends or something. While looking at this from monthly perspective it has to be stated that it got really cheap lately although it is honest and can be easily spotted by anyone in Poland that monopolist had to share the local market so that story said by monthly chart adds up. On the weekly chart we clearly can see RSI divergence trying to say to us that we might have a shot at short. Next two weeks and monthly candle will quickly really verify is that true. A lot of polish indexes, stocks are at vital levels right after significant rally. If things cool down globally OPL can see a significant downward move. Great risk to reward ratio with obvious stop if the story does not confirm itself over the course of incoming new week and the next one. Oh and don't mind the previous drawings. Time verified them to some degree.
GPW:OPLShort
by deejayzajac
So, what’s wrong with Kernel?Landscape in the agricultural sector could not be much more favourable for Kernel than it is nowadays. Grains Price Index is at its highest level since 2013 and the company has managed to fix most of its sale prices for the 2021/2022 season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, global grain yields in 2021 will be remarkably high mostly thanks to the very impressive yields in Argentina and Ukraine. The other major producers like the United States, Brazil, Canada, and China faced unfavourable weather conditions in 2021. China is especially relevant in the context of Kernel as its agricultural products import increased in the first two quarters of 2021 by 34% y/y. Moreover, the key agricultural region of China, Henan province, experienced severe floods that are likely to facilitate the upward trend in the grains import. Let’s be more specific. Rather conservative DCF and comparables suggest a valuation of around 78PLN per share. Quite optimistic given the current 57. So, what’s wrong with Kernel? The positive indicators I described have been widely known for quite some time however the share price does not display an upward trend. The late July price jump was caused by the buyback announcement. What is the market afraid of? One thing that comes to my mind is July’s Ukrainian tax authorities tax compliance check. Given the position of Kernel’s owner Andriy Verevskyi, I don’t believe that the firm can get busted on taxes. (Kernel is a huge VAT recipient*; more about Ukrainian oligarchs' power**). Donbas war could be considered another “risk factor” however, based on the media reports, the conflict smoulders rather than burns. Lastly, at the beginning of July Kernel announced the amendment of the expense plan regarding the new oilseed processing plant. Additional costs usually do not make shareholders particularly content although given the record yields this year, plant expansion seems to be justified. Summing up, my valuation suggests that the business is undervalued and I can’t think of risks strong enough to justify current capitalization. Thus, I am optimistic. *latifundist.com/en/novosti/56563-nazvany-krupnejshie-poluchateli-vozmeshcheniya-nds-v-agrosektore-za-avgust-2021-g **chathamhouse.org/2021/07/ukraines-system-crony-capitalism/05-agriculture-counterexample
GPW:KERLong
by UnknownUnicorn27189777
1
Mercator - MFI bullish divergenceLet's move on to analyzing what is happening in our Krakow company. In the beginning, technical analysis - treat with distance :) You don't have to believe in TA, but you have to bear in mind that others do. The price stopped at 0.786 fib. There is nothing under this support for a long, long time. So a fall in price below this level will most likely round the trend - bearish. The RSI shows the oversold level - a buy signal. Additionally, VWMACD is clearly approaching positive values, which indicates a change in the trend. The Money Flow Index shows a bullish divergence, a strong signal of opening a long position. Fundamental analysis directs us to quarterly reports. Revenues from Q4 / 2021 and Q1 / 2021 decreased from 652 218 to 551 644 thousand PLN. Rather logically, the September-December 2020 period was more profitable than the December-March period due to the COVID situation in Poland. The result was fear. Still, stopping at values ​​close to Q3 / 2020 is a good sign. Net profits pulled us back from Q4 / 2020 to Q1 / Q2 / 2020, which rather discourages people from investing in MRC. The next MRC report will decide the value of the stock.
GPW:MRC
by UnknownUnicorn15216778