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So, what’s wrong with Kernel?Landscape in the agricultural sector could not be much more favourable for Kernel than it is nowadays. Grains Price Index is at its highest level since 2013 and the company has managed to fix most of its sale prices for the 2021/2022 season. According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, global grain yields in 2021 will be remarkably high mostly thanks to the very impressive yields in Argentina and Ukraine. The other major producers like the United States, Brazil, Canada, and China faced unfavourable weather conditions in 2021. China is especially relevant in the context of Kernel as its agricultural products import increased in the first two quarters of 2021 by 34% y/y. Moreover, the key agricultural region of China, Henan province, experienced severe floods that are likely to facilitate the upward trend in the grains import. Let’s be more specific. Rather conservative DCF and comparables suggest a valuation of around 78PLN per share. Quite optimistic given the current 57. So, what’s wrong with Kernel? The positive indicators I described have been widely known for quite some time however the share price does not display an upward trend. The late July price jump was caused by the buyback announcement. What is the market afraid of? One thing that comes to my mind is July’s Ukrainian tax authorities tax compliance check. Given the position of Kernel’s owner Andriy Verevskyi, I don’t believe that the firm can get busted on taxes. (Kernel is a huge VAT recipient*; more about Ukrainian oligarchs' power**). Donbas war could be considered another “risk factor” however, based on the media reports, the conflict smoulders rather than burns. Lastly, at the beginning of July Kernel announced the amendment of the expense plan regarding the new oilseed processing plant. Additional costs usually do not make shareholders particularly content although given the record yields this year, plant expansion seems to be justified. Summing up, my valuation suggests that the business is undervalued and I can’t think of risks strong enough to justify current capitalization. Thus, I am optimistic. *latifundist.com/en/novosti/56563-nazvany-krupnejshie-poluchateli-vozmeshcheniya-nds-v-agrosektore-za-avgust-2021-g **chathamhouse.org/2021/07/ukraines-system-crony-capitalism/05-agriculture-counterexample
GPW:KERLong
by UnknownUnicorn27189777
1
Mercator - MFI bullish divergenceLet's move on to analyzing what is happening in our Krakow company. In the beginning, technical analysis - treat with distance :) You don't have to believe in TA, but you have to bear in mind that others do. The price stopped at 0.786 fib. There is nothing under this support for a long, long time. So a fall in price below this level will most likely round the trend - bearish. The RSI shows the oversold level - a buy signal. Additionally, VWMACD is clearly approaching positive values, which indicates a change in the trend. The Money Flow Index shows a bullish divergence, a strong signal of opening a long position. Fundamental analysis directs us to quarterly reports. Revenues from Q4 / 2021 and Q1 / 2021 decreased from 652 218 to 551 644 thousand PLN. Rather logically, the September-December 2020 period was more profitable than the December-March period due to the COVID situation in Poland. The result was fear. Still, stopping at values ​​close to Q3 / 2020 is a good sign. Net profits pulled us back from Q4 / 2020 to Q1 / Q2 / 2020, which rather discourages people from investing in MRC. The next MRC report will decide the value of the stock.
GPW:MRC
by UnknownUnicorn15216778
CREEPYJAR rebound with a PS4. Xbox one game releaseGPW:CRJ shows sign of rebound. GreenHell game released on PS4 and Xbox One on June 9, 2021 Solid 2020 results GPW:WIG.GAMES showing signs of rebound in the past weeks, likely increasing investor's interest in the Polish video game sector I will buy on the first correction, perhaps around 900. Note: The information is not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.
CLong
by bialoglowy
[UPDATED] CDPROJEKT CDR short position changesThis chart shows recent changes in short positions by 5 funds currently shorting GPW:CDR and how these changes likely affect the stock price. You can scroll the chart to the left to see earlier changes. GPW:CDR short positions reported in KNF Short Selling Register stand at 3.21% (~3,3M shares) as of June 18th 2021 reporting date: 0,85%: Eminence Capital, LP 0,70%: Citadel Advisors LLC 0,60%: SCGE Management, L.P. 0,56%: Marshall Wace LLP 0,50%: Arrowstreet Capital (new!) GPW:CDR as it is the most shorted stock on GPW, also it is one of the most traded stocks. Some analysts estimate that the actual short position could be as high as 16% of the free float, that is as high as 10M shares - reporting requirement starts from short selling position of minimum 0.50%, so there are likely many more funds shorting the stock that have not yet reached the reporting level. The huge price drop after a very positive news on 16th June, i.e. announcement of return of Cyberpunk 2077 to PlayStation Store was used by short sellers to increase position and stop further stock price increase. Volume Accumulation Percentage Indicator (VAPI) shows strong sale of stock by short sellers. Given that CDR is the most shorted stock on GPW and also one of the most popular, the large short position increases chances of short squeeze. High amount of borrowed shares could increase the stock price by over 20% when these positions are closed. Note: Short Borrow Fee Rate (%) on OTC:OTGLY currently at around 5.42%, which is quite average. This chart is based on the KNF data. The KNF Short Selling Register data for the Friday 18th June session will only be available on Monday 21st June: - rss.knf.gov.pl Disclaimer: The information is not intended to be and do not constitute financial advice, investment advice, trading advice or any other advice or recommendation of any sort.
GPW:CDRLong
by bialoglowy
1