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easy play on ASMLI’ve been closely monitoring the monthly chart of ASML Holding (Euronext) and have identified a compelling setup that aligns with my long-term strategy. Previously, I shared an idea on TradingView with an ambitious $1200 price target, based on the stock’s strong long-term uptrend and solid fundamentals. However, upon further analysis, I’ve identified an internal trendline, which provides additional clarity and reinforces my bullish outlook. Interestingly, a similar internal trendline has been observed in other stocks like Super Micro Computer, further validating this structure. Technical Analysis: Primary Uptrend: ASML is in a well-established long-term uptrend, confirmed by the primary ascending trendline connecting historical lows since 2012. This line showcases the structural strength of the stock and consistent investor confidence. Internal Trendline Confirmation: The recently identified internal trendline connects intermediate lows formed during price retracements, indicating a temporary slowdown in growth while maintaining an overall bullish structure. This internal trendline has previously acted as dynamic support, suggesting it may serve as a critical reference point for future price action. Key Price Levels: The current price (631.5 EUR) sits near a confluence zone between horizontal support and the internal trendline. This presents a strong entry point for a long position with an attractive risk/reward ratio. Significant support has been identified around the 600 EUR level, reinforcing my confidence in a potential price rebound. Long-Term Price Target: My long-term price target remains at $1200, which I believe is achievable as the stock continues to respect its bullish trend. This target aligns with ASML’s historical growth trajectory and the robust potential of the tech sector. Entry Timing: The recent bounce off the internal trendline and the +1.66% daily gain signal positive accumulation and increased buying interest. I plan to go long now, taking advantage of the dynamic support, with a stop loss set just below 590 EUR to manage risk effectively. ASML Holding offers a compelling investment opportunity, supported by a solid technical structure and clear bullish potential. The internal trendline, combined with horizontal support and the broader long-term uptrend, strengthens my confidence in entering a long position. With a $1200 target and a well-defined risk management plan, I believe this is the right time to position for the next leg up in this stock.
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by TheAverageTrader2
L'OREAL: Targetzone Ahead!The L'oreal stock is undergoing a correction phase, with the possibility of further declines into the €300 - €270 support zone. This level is marked as a strong long-term buy opportunity for investors, and price recovery is expected from this zone. Should this correction unfold as anticipated, the stock could rally with potential targets at 375 and €400+ in the longer term. Thank you for taking the time to read my analysis. I look forward to reading your thoughts. Best regards, Mattner no investment advice
EURONEXT:ORLong
by MattnerFuture
ASML Trade Idea: Riding the Uptrend with CautionAfter some time away, I’m back with a fresh ASML setup. I’ll keep this analysis simple and focus on the key points. Market Structure and Trend Analysis ASML remains in a strong uptrend on higher timeframes, although there has been a Change of Character (CHOCH) on the shorter-term trend, indicating a corrective phase. This recent pullback looks like a corrective pattern within the larger monthly uptrend, potentially offering a buying opportunity if the main trend resumes. Technical Overview The price has tested the trendline for the third time and briefly dropped below it, which could attract short sellers and create liquidity for larger players. I’m eyeing the -27% Fibonacci extension as a full-wave target for this setup, but I plan to take partial profits along the way, starting with 25% at a 1:3 risk-to-reward ratio. Risk Management and Seasonal Insights I’m risking 1% of my account on this trade, maintaining a conservative approach. Additionally, we’re currently in the “Halloween Effect” period, where the market often performs well from October through December, providing a seasonal tailwind. Fundamental Context Recent negative news around ASML may create a bearish narrative that could mislead retail traders. I interpret this as a buying opportunity, aligning with the overall bullish trend and offering a favorable risk-to-reward setup.
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by Ylo
ASML HOLDING N.V - BUY APPROVEDASML Buy Recommendation is Certified. 1. The major trendline since 2009 has been tested and remains solid. 2. The Fibonacci retracement is currently at the 0.618 level, the ultimate prime level. 3. The Fibonacci extension consistently proves accurate. 4. The presidential election year is historically the best time to invest, plus the stock is currently discounted. 5. ASML holds a global monopoly in EUV (Extreme Ultraviolet) lithography technology. 6. Earnings have consistently been excellent, with the company being highly profitable. 7. Some market pressures are driven by American interests, aiming to undermine ASML in order to prevent the sale of machines to China. TARGET: 1450 EUR
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by TheAverageTrader2
The European Diaper King: Ontex GroupCompany Overview Ontex Group, a Belgium-based company, is one of Europe’s largest producers of diapers, primarily focused on supplying white-label (non-branded) products to retailers. Despite being relatively unknown to the general public, Ontex's products are widely used across Europe and, increasingly, in the U.S. Initially, Ontex pursued a growth strategy centered on expanding into emerging markets with branded diaper products. However, this approach fell short of expectations, leading to a drop in its share price from €30 to around €5, positioning the company as a potential acquisition target. Strategic Shift and Current Focus To improve financial stability, Ontex pivoted its strategy toward producing white-label diapers rather than branded products. Additionally, it has gradually divested from emerging markets, with the final sales currently underway, refocusing on its established European market and expanding into the U.S., where white-label diapers are a growing segment. This shift is in line with increased cost-consciousness among U.S. consumers, especially in light of rising living expenses and a preference for domestic products over imports from countries such as China. Market Position and Opportunities Ontex operates in a relatively stable market, supported by consistent demand for diapers driven by birth rates and demographic trends. While European market growth is constrained by low birth rates and economic challenges, the U.S. market presents significant opportunities. Currently, white-label diaper products occupy a smaller share in the U.S., but this is changing as consumers look for cost-effective alternatives, which supports Ontex’s expansion and revenue potential in the region. Financial Performance and Valuation Ontex is currently undervalued at approximately 5 to 6 times EBITDA, with a market cap of around €600 million. The company’s board has introduced an incentivized stock options program for management, designed to encourage significant share price growth. If successful, the CEO stands to receive €16 million if Ontex’s share price doubles by the end of the upcoming fiscal year. This aligns management's interests with shareholders and may indicate a higher likelihood of short- to mid-term stock appreciation. Acquisition Potential Ontex has garnered interest from private equity firms due to its reliable revenue base in the diaper industry. The company’s restructuring and focused U.S. expansion increase its attractiveness as a takeover target. In addition, Ontex’s largest shareholder, an activist fund with a 15% stake, supports a sale of the company. Previous acquisition offers for Ontex were reportedly in the range of €20-27 per share, though these were dismissed. Given current market conditions, an offer in the range of €16-21 could be expected if a private equity acquisition were to proceed. Competitive Landscape and Risk Factors Despite growth potential in the U.S., Ontex faces competitive pressure in Europe, where low-cost discounters have placed margins under strain, affecting even large consumer brands like Nestlé and Unilever. While the U.S. market remains more resilient, any increase in price sensitivity or competition from domestic white-label manufacturers could impact Ontex’s long-term growth in this region. Investment Summary Ontex presents a potentially attractive investment due to: * Upside Potential: Undervalued shares and the possibility of a buyout at a premium. * Stable Revenue Base: Consistent demand for diapers, particularly through white-label products. * Strong Management Incentives: Board members are heavily incentivized to increase the share price. * Growth in the U.S. Market: Opportunities in an underserved segment with rising consumer demand for white-label products. However, risks include economic pressures in Europe, competitive dynamics from discounters, and potential volatility due to activist investor involvement. Investors considering Ontex may benefit from a cost-averaging strategy during market fluctuations to secure a favorable entry price. Final statement I am personally anticipating a potential acquisition by a private equity firm. An offer in the range of $22–$23 per share would represent approximately triple the current share price.
EURONEXT:ONTEXLong
by marc_kober
The pearl of the aviation/defense industry: Dassault AviationOverview In this report, we analyze an undervalued and lesser-known stock in the aerospace and defense sector. While many investors focus on established giants like Rheinmetall and Lockheed Martin, this gem offers a compelling opportunity due to its unique market positioning, low valuation relative to peers, and multiple growth drivers. The geopolitical climate, recovering business jet demand, and strategic stakes in adjacent industries create a favorable investment case. Key Investment Highlights 1. Market Position and Peer Comparison: o The company is undervalued compared to its peer group. Despite operating in the high-demand aerospace and defense sector, it trades at a lower Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA multiple and offers a lower next-12-month Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio than major competitors like Boeing. o Strategic stakes in other companies, such as a substantial 25.85% holding in Thales SA, significantly contribute to its intrinsic value, while also benefiting from cross-sector synergies. 2. Product Line and Market Potential: o The company manufactures both military and business aircraft, including the Rafale series of combat jets and the Falcon business jet series. The business jet market, which operates as a near-oligopoly, includes only a few competitors like Gulfstream and Bombardier, creating a strong market niche. o Business jets and their related service revenues account for 25% of the company's income. This sector's high margins and steady demand from affluent customers, largely resilient to economic cycles, provide additional stability to the revenue base. 3. Global Geopolitical Tailwinds: o The ongoing increase in military budgets worldwide, driven by geopolitical tensions involving Russia, Ukraine, Israel, and China, will likely lead to long-term, robust demand for defense equipment. o Many NATO countries, particularly in Europe, are increasing their military spending to meet target levels, offering an anticipated tailwind for this company’s defense segment. 4. Business Jet Market Recovery: o Since the COVID-19 pandemic, demand for business jets has rebounded, with significant growth potential in Asia. The company recently launched the Falcon 6X and Falcon 10X business jet models, addressing the aging fleet in the market, with an average fleet age of 18 years. o Increasing wealth in Asia, with hundreds of new millionaires emerging daily, suggests a positive growth outlook for luxury and business jet demand. 5. Stable Revenue from Services and Maintenance: o The aerospace sector typically experiences steady income from maintenance services, essential for keeping aircraft operational. The demand for private jet maintenance remains high, even during economic downturns, especially among high-net-worth individuals. o This focus on service revenue translates into predictable free cash flow, a record-high order book, and strong long-term visibility. Financial and Valuation Analysis • Valuation Metrics: The company trades at approximately 9.2 times the P/E ratio and 4 times EBITDA, considerably lower than the broader peer group average. This valuation reflects a significant discount, particularly given the company’s promising outlook and high industry relevance. • Ownership and Management: The company’s majority ownership by a prominent French family (Dassault Family), holding 66.11% of shares (Groupe Industriel Marcel Dassault), indicates a potential alignment with shareholder interests, bolstering stability and strategic direction. • Stock Buybacks: The company has consistently executed share buybacks, repurchasing over 20% of outstanding shares since 2015 at favorable valuations, further enhancing shareholder value. Long-Term Growth Catalysts 1. Military Budget Increases: Rising global defense budgets due to heightened geopolitical risks create a favorable environment for sustained defense spending. 2. Wealth Growth in Asia: Rapid economic growth in Asia supports a steady increase in demand for business jets, reinforcing the company’s prospects in this niche. 3. New Product Launches: The introduction of the Falcon 6X and 10X models targets the luxury business jet market, where the replacement cycle and market demand are aligned for growth. Ethical Considerations This investment opportunity, while financially compelling, is situated in the defense sector. Investors should consider their stance on ethical investing, as a portion of the company’s revenue is derived from military products. Conclusion The stock represents a strong value opportunity within the aerospace and defense sector, bolstered by its underappreciated valuation, diverse revenue streams, and high-growth market segments. With long-term tailwinds in place, this company has the potential to deliver attractive returns as it continues to capitalize on both military and business aviation demand. It’s important to keep in mind that if Trump wins and manages to ease the current political tensions (though it’s uncertain if he will), this stock may become less appealing. This information is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Always do your own research or consult a financial professional before making investment decisions.
EURONEXT:AMLong
by marc_kober
ASML: A Key Moment to Take Advantage of Bearish SentimentCurrent Context ASML Holding N.V. (NASDAQ: ASML) is at a critical juncture. Recently, its share price has fallen nearly 24%, driven by a downward revision to its 2025 sales projections largely because +20% of its sales were being generated by China and now the country has seen competitors replace its best-selling technologies. Sales are now expected to range between 30 and 35 billion euros, compared to the previous forecast of 30 to 40 billion. This revision is due to a slower recovery in its traditional markets, especially in logic chip production and limited production capacity in the memory sector. Operational Analysis Despite this pessimistic review, ASML's growth prospects remain robust. The company maintains a dominant position thanks to its monopoly in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, crucial at a time when demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment is on the rise, driven by artificial intelligence, 5G and digital transformation. Although relations with China have weakened thanks to European interventionist policies, ASML anticipates that growth in segments outside China will offset this decline. The growing need for advanced semiconductors is expected to continue to support its growth in the medium term. Valuation Analysis From a valuation standpoint, ASML presents itself as an attractive opportunity. It currently has an EV/sales ratio of 9.5, which is 18.9% below its five-year average. It is estimated that the company's value could increase 30% in the next 12 months, reaching approximately $360 billion, based on revenue projections of $36 billion by 2025. Furthermore, with a non-GAAP P/E of 34.5, which is also below its historical average, ASML appears undervalued compared to other industry players. Technical Analysis From a technical point of view the stock has been losing value since July 11. The last strong downward movement occurred on October 15, subsequently the downward pressure has kept the stock during the whole month and the beginning of November down. A bearish delta channel is visible and clearly marked by the POC price around €627 per share. This price retracement has caused the stock to reach December 2023 prices, prior to the Christmas rally. At the moment RSI is oversold at 32.49% so it is not strange if the firm's share price recovers value towards €753 which is the last delta pressure zone indicated in the next trading area. Risks to Consider However, not everything is positive. Geopolitical tensions between the US and China could significantly impact ASML's valuation. China accounts for more than 20% of the country's sales and it is a very high risk for the company to lose this major market because it is the market that can be a competitor with global suppliers and government support. The emergence of Shanghai Micro Electronics Equipment (SMEE), which receives subsidies from the Chinese government, represents a long-term challenge. While these concerns may seem distant, it is essential not to underestimate their potential effect on the market. Conclusion Despite the risks, the combination of ASML's current valuation and its monopoly in EUV technology suggests that it is an appropriate time for investors to consider a position in this stock. With a solid growth outlook and favorable investment conditions, ASML is positioned as a strategic buy in a well-managed portfolio. Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EURONEXT:ASMLLong
by ActivTrades
Heineken Stock Alert: Testing Key Support Levels!Back in May, Heineken (HEIA) held steady at a high of $96 per share. Fast forward, and we’re now seeing a substantial dip, with the stock hovering around $75. But this isn’t just any price level—it’s a historical support zone, rooted in the post-COVID recovery period where Heineken found a solid foundation after previous market downturns. Why does this level matter? Historical Strength: This support zone has proven resilient in the past, catching the price during major pullbacks. Many investors view it as a potential “floor,” a level that might attract buyers looking for value. Potential Rebound Opportunity: If Heineken finds momentum here, it could signal a reversal, especially if positive shifts in the consumer sector bolster confidence.
EURONEXT:HEIALong
by Charts_M7M
Bottom Fishing = Gucci and YSL saleTechnical Analysis: Inverse head and shoulders sent this luxury brand conglomerate to the post Covid bull market highs. But we are in the midst of a rapid decline, with over a 70% drop in stock value. I expect us to start finding support at the key horizontal levels as Kering aims to implement cost cutting measures to slow the sinking ship. This should bring better value to stock holders who believe in the long term sustainability of this French luxury giant. Fundamental Analysis: **Bull Thesis on Kering (KER)** Kering, a major player in the luxury goods sector, owns high-end brands such as Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, and Alexander McQueen. Despite the prestige of these brands, Kering’s stock has experienced a steep decline of over 70% from its peak, leading to its current valuation as a potentially undervalued opportunity in the luxury market. 1. Chinese Consumer Demand Already Priced In: Concerns about reduced demand from Chinese consumers due to economic slowdowns have contributed to Kering’s significant stock drop. However, these risks appear largely priced in, as the market has already discounted the stock heavily, reflecting worst-case scenarios. Luxury demand in China, while affected by economic uncertainty, remains a key part of Chinese culture, and with the start of new stimulus from the Chinese government, spending in the luxury sector could rebound. 2. Moat and Brand Power: Kering’s portfolio includes some of the world’s most iconic luxury brands. Gucci, in particular, is known for its enduring appeal, while brands like Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta appeal to high-net-worth consumers globally. This brand recognition forms a durable moat, giving Kering pricing power and customer loyalty in the luxury space, even as spending patterns fluctuate. 3. Global Liquidity Cycle Upside: Central banks, particularly in the U.S. and China, have shown a willingness to intervene through stimulus measures during economic slowdowns. Should we see another global liquidity injection or stimulus cycle, Kering’s luxury products could benefit as high-net-worth individuals increase discretionary spending. Luxury stocks tend to outperform during these cycles as increased liquidity fuels consumer confidence and spending power. 4. Cost-Cutting Initiatives: Kering has also taken proactive steps to streamline operations and cut costs, which could stabilize margins even if revenue remains under pressure. These measures could position Kering to see greater profitability when demand eventually recovers, leveraging both improved efficiency and brand strength. With high-end brands, a recognized moat in luxury, and operational improvements underway, Kering offers an appealing opportunity as it trades at a discount to its historical value. The luxury sector's resilience, combined with central bank actions and Kering’s cost-saving strategies, may set the stage for a compelling rebound in the stock price. I will be looking to add as price finds a base and at the first sign of a reversal in a strong downtrend. Not financial advice
EURONEXT:KERLong
by NoFOMO_
Bottom Fishing - Gucci, YSL on saleTechnical Analysis: Inverse head and shoulders sent this luxury brand conglomerate to the post Covid bull market highs. But we are in the midst of a rapid decline, with over a 70% drop in stock value. I expect us to start finding support at the key horizontal levels as Kering aims to implement cost cutting measures to slow the sinking ship. This should bring better value to stock holders who believe in the long term sustainability of this French luxury giant. Fundamental Analysis: **Bull Thesis on Kering (KER)** Kering, a major player in the luxury goods sector, owns high-end brands such as Gucci, Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, Balenciaga, and Alexander McQueen. Despite the prestige of these brands, Kering’s stock has experienced a steep decline of over 70% from its peak, leading to its current valuation as a potentially undervalued opportunity in the luxury market. 1. Chinese Consumer Demand Already Priced In: Concerns about reduced demand from Chinese consumers due to economic slowdowns have contributed to Kering’s significant stock drop. However, these risks appear largely priced in, as the market has already discounted the stock heavily, reflecting worst-case scenarios. Luxury demand in China, while affected by economic uncertainty, remains a key part of Chinese culture, and with the start of new stimulus from the Chinese government, spending in the luxury sector could rebound. 2. Moat and Brand Power: Kering’s portfolio includes some of the world’s most iconic luxury brands. Gucci, in particular, is known for its enduring appeal, while brands like Saint Laurent and Bottega Veneta appeal to high-net-worth consumers globally. This brand recognition forms a durable moat, giving Kering pricing power and customer loyalty in the luxury space, even as spending patterns fluctuate. 3. Global Liquidity Cycle Upside: Central banks, particularly in the U.S. and China, have shown a willingness to intervene through stimulus measures during economic slowdowns. Should we see another global liquidity injection or stimulus cycle, Kering’s luxury products could benefit as high-net-worth individuals increase discretionary spending. Luxury stocks tend to outperform during these cycles as increased liquidity fuels consumer confidence and spending power. 4. Cost-Cutting Initiatives: Kering has also taken proactive steps to streamline operations and cut costs, which could stabilize margins even if revenue remains under pressure. These measures could position Kering to see greater profitability when demand eventually recovers, leveraging both improved efficiency and brand strength. With high-end brands, a recognized moat in luxury, and operational improvements underway, Kering offers an appealing opportunity as it trades at a discount to its historical value. The luxury sector's resilience, combined with central bank actions and Kering’s cost-saving strategies, may set the stage for a compelling rebound in the stock price. I will be looking to add as price finds a base and at the first sign of a reversal in a strong downtrend. Not financial advice
EURONEXT:KERLong
by NoFOMO_
Can Tencent salvage Ubisoft's sinking ship?Ubisoft’s stock pumped 35% couple of days ago following a Bloomberg report suggesting that Tencent may either acquire the company or take it private Although the French gaming company didn’t confirm or deny the speculation, it did state that it’s considering "all strategic options" for the benefit of its stakeholders and will notify the market when necessary If Tencent proceeds, it would mark another significant acquisition in a wave of major gaming deals over recent years: - Activision Blizzard acquired by Microsoft for $69 billion in 2023. - Zynga acquired by Take-Two for $12.7 billion in 2022. - ZeniMax Media acquired by Microsoft for $7.5 billion in 2021. - Savvy Games acquired by Scopely for $4.9 billion in 2023. - Bungie acquired by Sony for $3.7 billion in 2022. - Glu Mobile acquired by EA for $2.4 billion in 2021. - Keywords Studios acquired by EQT for $2.4 billion in 2024. Ubisoft’s valuation sits at just $2 billion, nearly 90% below its peak in 2021! The stock fell by more than 40% in September alone, so this recent surge is only a brief reprieve. Given its diminished value, a potential buyer offering a premium wouldn’t necessarily be a massive win. So, how should we interpret this news, and what can we anticipate for future gaming M&A activity? Let’s break it down. Key Points 1.Ubisoft’s Challenges 2.Potential Buyers 3.IP Gold Rush 4.Future of Gaming M&A 1. Ubisoft’s Challenges Ubisoft has faced setbacks including canceled games, delays, and a dip in quality in the post-pandemic era. Let’s take a look at the fiscal year 2024, which ends in March. Consider this metric reflects the total amount spent by users within a period, covering game sales, in-game purchases, subscriptions, and downloadable content (DLC). It’s an important measure of business performance, with net bookings recognized as revenue over time, depending on content delivery and user engagement Key takeaways: Digital-first: 86% of Ubisoft's net bookings come from digital sales (premium, free-to-play, and subscriptions). It was 12% in 2013, illustrating the transformative past decade. Far behind on mobile: Ubisoft has trailed its peers, with only 7% of revenue coming from mobile. In contrast, nearly half of the industry’s revenue comes from smartphones. Margins improved after cost-cutting: Digital games are a high gross margin business, particularly with the back catalog (title released in previous years) making up nearly two-thirds of net bookings. Targeted restructurings impacted FY23, making the short-term margin trend misleading. Ubisoft laid off 1,700 employees between September 2022 and March 2024, roughly 6% of its workforce. Short-lived turnaround: FY23 was a challenging year, with Net bookings collapsing by 18% with the underperformance of Mario + Rabbids: Sparks of Hope and Just Dance 2023. In FY24, Net bookings rebounded sharply, growing 34% with the successful release of Assassin’s Creed Mirage and The Crew Motorfest. FY25 Collapses in a Week: After the underperformance of Star Wars Outlaws (released at the end of August and originally expected to be a blockbuster) and the delayed launch of Assassin’s Creed Shadows from November to February, Ubisoft revised its FY25 net bookings forecast down to €1.95 billion, a 16% decline year-over-year (compared to the "solid growth" expected earlier). The company now anticipates barely breaking even on an adjusted basis. The decision to delay Assassin’s Creed Shadows just weeks before its scheduled release was influenced by the poor reception of *Star Wars Outlaws*. However, the three-month delay might not be enough to resolve concerns over game quality or criticisms from the Japanese community regarding historical and cultural inaccuracies. But that’s not all! In addition to these financial and operational difficulties, Ubisoft has faced allegations of a toxic workplace. Several former executives from the *Assassin’s Creed* studio were arrested as part of an investigation into sexual assault and harassment. This situation mirrors the downfall of Activision Blizzard in the months leading up to its acquisition by Microsoft, which leads us to potential buyers for Ubisoft. 2. Potential Buyers Ubisoft remains a family-run company, largely overseen by its founders. The latest annual report reveals the following voting rights: - The Guillemot family controls 20.5% - Tencent owns 9.2% In September, minority shareholder AJ Investments claimed it had gained backing from 10% of shareholders and called for Ubisoft to be sold or taken private, estimating a fair value of €40 to €45 per share. With shares currently trading at €13, this seems highly optimistic. So, who are the likely candidates for a Ubisoft buyout? Key Players: -Tencent: Already a significant shareholder, Tencent could increase its stake or seek majority control. As the largest gaming company globally by revenue, Tencent has a history of acquisitions, such as its purchase of Finnish publisher Supercell (*Clash of Clans*) for $8.6 billion in 2016. However, Tencent's aggressive expansion has drawn regulatory scrutiny, especially in the US and Europe, which could complicate any attempt to acquire majority control of Ubisoft. Guillemot Family: The founding family might be interested in reclaiming greater control of Ubisoft and steering it in a new direction. To finance the buyout, they could collaborate with a private equity firm or a strategic investor. However, given Ubisoft's current size and the significant cost associated with a buyout, it could be difficult for the Guillemot family to pursue this path on their own. Other Potential Investors: Private equity firms or strategic investors within the gaming sector might also join a buyout consortium. These investors could be drawn to Ubisoft’s valuable intellectual property (IP) and see potential for a turnaround under new leadership. Gaming Companies: Besides Tencent, the largest gaming revenue players in 2023 are highlighted in the visual. -Apple and Google: Although both tech giants have been expanding into gaming, acquiring Ubisoft seems unlikely given their current antitrust scrutiny. -NetEase, EA, and TakeTwo: These companies would find an Ubisoft acquisition to be a straightforward studio consolidation. NetEase, in particular, might find it appealing to broaden its console and PC presence in the West, but Tencent’s involvement could complicate this. -Sony and Microsoft: As first-party publishers, both would benefit from boosting their subscription services with exclusive content. They’ve aggressively acquired studios in recent years. Given that the Activision Blizzard deal was approved, there’s no reason a Ubisoft acquisition couldn’t pass as well. In their latest fiscal year, gaming accounted for 32% of Sony’s revenue and less than 9% of Microsoft’s. 3. IP Gold Rush In the gaming industry, intellectual property (IP) is crucial. Iconic franchises like *Call of Duty*, *Mario*, and *Grand Theft Auto* are multi-billion-dollar assets that significantly impact a company’s future. As a result, many companies are eager to acquire established IPs or gain access to the teams behind them. Why is IP so valuable? -Lower risk: Developing a new AAA game can cost hundreds of millions and take years, with no guarantee of success. Acquiring a popular IP allows companies to tap into an existing fanbase and reduces the risk of failure. -Brand power: Consumers are more inclined to purchase games with familiar characters, worlds, or studios behind them. Well-known creators like Hideo Kojima (*Metal Gear*) and Hidetaka Miyazaki (*Elden Ring*) are just as significant. -Content scalability: Famous IPs can generate revenue through sequels, spin-offs, and licensing deals. Large publishers have the infrastructure to maximize returns across multiple channels. This strategy isn’t unique to gaming. Media giants follow similar patterns: -Amazon’s acquisition of MGM: In 2021, Amazon acquired MGM for $8.5 billion, gaining access to franchises like *James Bond* to enhance its Prime Video content. -Disney’s acquisition of Lucasfilm and Marvel: These acquisitions have delivered massive returns through movies, TV series, and licensing opportunities. Why now? -Consolidation pressure: Subscription services and cross-platform gaming are driving consolidation. Big companies want to secure valuable IPs to differentiate their services and attract loyal customers. Meanwhile, smaller studios are more open to selling early to avoid competing in an increasingly crowded and capital-intensive market. -Value in ownership: Owning IPs in gaming allows companies to create expansive worlds and engage players long-term through updates, expansions, and live services. This keeps players coming back and generates recurring revenue, which is harder to achieve in video content. -Cross media expansion: Popular games can expand into movies, TV series, or theme parks. For instance, *The Last of Us* became a hit HBO show, and Sony is developing TV adaptations for Horizon Zero Dawn and God of War. This leads to more revenue, a broader audience, and long-lasting IP appeal. The Ubisoft Angle Ubisoft’s IPs, like *Assassin’s Creed*, *Far Cry*, and *Tom Clancy’s Rainbow Six*, have significant potential for future growth, despite recent struggles. However, realizing that potential might require new leadership or a fresh strategy, which a new owner could provide. Even though Ubisoft faces challenges, its strong portfolio might attract various buyers. For the right acquirer, Ubisoft's problems could represent a chance to buy low and rework its creative direction. As more studios seek to hedge their risks in this changing industry, we can expect more mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in the future. 4. The Future of Gaming M&A The gaming industry is constantly evolving, and several trends are fueling a surge in mergers and acquisitions: -Mobile-first: Mobile gaming is the largest and fastest-growing segment, making companies with a strong mobile presence attractive. Examples include Playrix (Gardenscapes,Homescapes) and Scopely (MONOPOLY GO!,Stumble Guys) -Cross-platform: Cross-platform play is becoming the standard, and companies with expertise in this area are in high demand. Unity and Epic Games play vital roles with their popular game engines, while major studios are also building in-house solutions. - Cloud gaming: Still in its early stages, cloud gaming has the potential to revolutionize how games are played. Companies with cloud infrastructure are becoming more valuable, with leaders like Microsoft (Game Pass Ultimate), Sony (PlayStation Plus Premium), and NVIDIA (GeForce Now) pushing the trend. -Metaverse: Beyond AR/VR, virtual worlds like *Roblox* and *Fortnite* have created immersive, social spaces that keep players engaged beyond traditional gameplay. Companies developing these experiences are attractive targets for firms looking to capitalize on this trend. -Web3 & Blockchain: Web3 games enable decentralized ownership and in-game economies powered by blockchain. This trend lets players own and trade digital assets, opening new revenue streams and drawing interest from companies exploring the intersection of gaming and crypto. -AI driven studios: AI is already influencing game development, and its role will only grow. Companies with AI expertise, particularly in game design and player behavior analysis, are becoming highly sought after. As AI reduces development costs, budgets could shift towards live services and marketing. The Big Picture The gaming industry is consolidating, with major players acquiring valuable studios and IPs. While there will always be space for indie games—especially as AI lowers the barrier to entry—industry consolidation will likely strengthen the top companies and leave less room for those in the middle. If a company like Ubisoft, valued at over $12 billion in 2021, is struggling to survive on its own, the future looks bleak for many smaller studios
EURONEXT:UBI
by moonypto
4
BUYS ON TEP💡 Today we analyze Teleperformance (TEP) Teleperformance is a solid company in a downward trend since January 2022, but it could be a buying opportunity if it breaks the resistance marked in purple. We will look for purchases if it closes above €123, avoiding purchases at current prices. 1. Robust Financials: Its diversified model provides stability. 2. Global Growth: The expansion into international markets is steady. 3. Technological Innovation: Investments in technology enhance efficiency and customer experience. 4. Technical Opportunity: A close above €123 may signal a change in market sentiment. Conclusion: Although the stock has been in a downward trend, breaking key levels could open the door to a recovery. Evaluating the situation is crucial before making decisions. This analysis is not an investment recommendation.
EURONEXT:TEPLong
by AnalisisDeBolsaDiario
Analysis: LVMH Misses Third-Quarter Revenue ExpectationsOverview: LVMH, the world's largest luxury-goods company, reported lower-than-expected third-quarter revenue. The company's organic revenue fell 3% to €19.08 billion, missing analysts' forecasts of €19.94 billion. This decline was primarily driven by weaker demand in China and a broader slowdown in the luxury sector. Key Factors: China's Economic Slowdown: China, once a growth engine for the luxury sector, has become a significant challenge. The country's economic malaise, marked by a sluggish real-estate sector and uncertain economic outlook, has led to reduced consumer spending on luxury goods. Performance by Division: LVMH's core fashion and leather-goods division, which includes high-end brands like Louis Vuitton and Dior, saw a 5% decline in organic revenue. The wines and spirits business, which includes Hennessy cognac and Moet & Chandon champagne, experienced a 7% drop in organic revenue. Regional Performance: Sales in LVMH's Asian market, dominated by China, fell 16% in the third quarter. In contrast, Japan saw a 20% increase in organic revenue, although this was a slowdown from the previous quarter's 57% growth rate. Western Markets: In the U.S., LVMH's organic revenue was flat, while Europe saw a 2% increase. Western consumers, especially the less affluent, have been cutting back on luxury purchases due to continued price increases and a weaker economic backdrop. Outlook: Despite the challenges, some investors remain hopeful that China's economic-stimulus plans could lead to a recovery in the luxury market. However, analysts caution that it is too early to see the effects of these measures. EURONEXT:MC Recommendation: Hold Given the current economic uncertainties and the mixed performance across different regions and divisions, it is prudent to hold LVMH shares for now. While there are potential recovery signs in China and Japan, the broader luxury sector's slowdown and ongoing economic challenges suggest a cautious approach. --------------------------------------------------------------------- Risk Warning Trading stocks and options is a risky activity and can result in ​losses. You should only trade if you understand the risks involved and are ​comfortable with the potential for losses. Risk Disclaimer! General Risk ​Warning: Trading on the Financial Markets, Stock Exchange and all its asset ​derivatives is highly speculative and may not be suitable for all investors. ​Only invest with money you can afford to lose and ensure that you fully ​understand the risks involved. It is important that you understand how ​Trading and Investing on the stock exchange works and that you consider ​whether you can afford the high risk of loss!
EURONEXT:MC
by TheTrade_Academ
Tencent and Guillemot Brothers evaluate the purchase of UbisoftUbisoft, the famous video game developer responsible for sagas such as Assassin's Creed and Far Cry, is in the midst of a financial crisis that has caused a 50% drop in its shares over the last year. Faced with this situation, Tencent and the Guillemot Brothers, the company's founding family, are considering acquiring full control of the company, according to Bloomberg. This potential deal would turn Ubisoft into a private equity firm, with Tencent holding a stake of less than 10%, with no veto rights or ability to sell its shares for the next five years. Meanwhile, the Guillemot Brothers would retain operational control of the company, in an attempt to stabilize it and keep other potential buyers away. Key points: • Financial crisis: Ubisoft has lost 50% of its stock market value in the last year. • Possible acquisition: Tencent and the Guillemot Brothers are negotiating a deal to take control of the company. • Market impact: Ubisoft shares jumped more than 30% following rumors of the takeover. • Terms of the deal: Tencent would have no veto rights and could not sell its stake for five years. • Future of Ubisoft: The goal is to revitalize the company and protect it from further acquisitions. • This move could mark a new stage in Ubisoft's history as it struggles to regain its position in the video game industry. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
EURONEXT:UBI
by ActivTrades
UBISOFT REKT- What happens when you're one of the biggest video game companies in the world and you rest on your laurels? You sink. - That said, as traders, we can always attempt to capitalize on a dead cat bounce. - Right now, nothing to buy, if Ubisoft not down more and bounce before, just forget it. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Trading Parts : ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - Buy around 10€ ( 30% invest ) - DCA Rebuy to 8.5€ ( 70% invest ) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ - TP1 : 17.9€ - TP2 : 29.9€ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SL : 5.9€ ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Stay S4fe Happy Tr4Ding !
EURONEXT:UBILong
by thecryer