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PIKK 1H Swing Long Conservative Trend TradeConservative Trend Trade + long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level ? (new spread) + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily context "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction - SOS level above JOC + support level + volumed Sp + weak test" Monthly context "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume 2Sp+ in 4d" Yearly context "- no trend - context direction short"
RUS:PIKKLong
by MishaSuvorov
#TRNFP - Strategic company.Good day, dear investors. We continue to look positively at assets and enterprises located in the Russian Federation, especially those with the characteristic of "natural monopoly". Transneft is the world's largest oil pipeline company, the owner of the oil transportation system of the Soviet Union. 68 thousand kilometers of main pipelines, more than 500 pumping stations, 24 million cubic meters of storage capacity. The company transports 83% of the oil produced and 30% of oil products in Russia. Owner of port infrastructure: Port Primorsk, Port Ust-Luga, Port Novorossiysk, Port Kozmino. Before us is an infrastructure company of strategic importance, the profit of which does not depend on fluctuations in energy prices. The company's net profit continues to grow from year to year, the debt is decreasing, despite the growth of capital expenditures, the growth of Cash on the balance sheet is positive in the context of high CBR rates. Transneft indexes the cost of its services annually by the amount of inflation + 0.3%. The average dividend yield for 10 years is: 94.44 ₽, for 5 years: 117 ₽. The Russian government owns 78% of voting shares. Which is both a plus and a minus. The minuses include the direction of the company's profits for purposes not related to commercialization. This includes an increase in taxes from 20 to 40%, which was approved on December 2. The plus is protection from takeovers and splitting of the company, and in the event of a decrease in the state's share to 50% + 1 share, there will be an increase in the value of both ordinary and preferred shares. We consider this scenario probable in the current conditions. The technical picture remains bearish, the company is in a downward trend, the range of which is 1831-699, which is 70% lower than the ATX. The current movement that is forming at the moment shows signs of a double bottom. Given the dividend yield, financial indicators and strategic importance of the company, we have a positive view of these shares. Levels that we consider acceptable for forming a position: 969-790. Levels at which it is possible to increase positions above standard risks are 493-308. With respect to you, Daniel Drozdov. CIS Market Analyst VokCapital Disclaimer: The information above is not an investment recommendation.
RUS:TRNFPLong
by VOKCAPITAL
#GMKN - Option x2/x2.5 with 14% annual yield. Good day, dear investors. We continue to bet on the normalization of relations between the Russian Federation and the United States and Europe, one of the recipients of these events will be Norilsk Nickel. GMKN is a producer of nickel, copper, platinum, palladium, the list is much wider, but this is the main thing. An export company, it has a full production cycle: mining, enrichment, production, logistics and sales. In connection with foreign economic activity, the devaluation risks of the national currency are less aggressively distributed. Financial indicators are stable. Under the influence of restrictions, net profit and revenue are decreasing, but net assets remain in surplus and are growing despite the rising cost of servicing debt obligations. The average dividend yield over the past 10 years is 14.3 ₽ per 1 share, which at the time of writing is 13.6%. The technical picture is bearish. The stock has dropped to the range of 123-77, where trading is taking place below the lower boundary of the ascending channel. The target of this bearish cycle may be marks near the lower boundary of the range. Possible scenarios: - Direct fall to 77 - Growth to 139 - 149 and fall to 77 - End of the bearish cycle. Our team believes that at the moment the company's quotes are at historically low price levels, especially considering the quotes of precious metals and the growth of the money supply in Russia. At the same time, if our expectations for the normalization of external relations are not met, the shares will still be able to grow and neutralize currency risks, according to the scenario of Iran or Turkey and their stock markets. Therefore, despite the bearish view from technical analysts, we are considering this company for addition to our portfolio on the Russian market. With respect to you, Daniel Drozdov. CIS Market Analyst VokCapital
RUS:GMKNLong
by VOKCAPITAL
ALRS 1D Long Investment Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test + first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit 1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2 1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y Calculated affordable stop limit Take profit 1/3 - 1 to 2 R/R 1/3 - 1D T2 / 1M T2 1/3 - 1/2 of 1Y Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed Sp + test" Yearly Trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level + manipulation"
RUS:ALRSLong
by MishaSuvorov
$POLY - everything shows that time has comeIndicators shows - MOEX:POLY is ready to start moving upstairs. Oversold instrument will lure investors' money. 2. Two crossing channels - main downward and local upward. Both for now stays higher, than an actual price. It should return back to any channel and continue moving inside till the top board of one only or both. Two channels and levels inside will be magnetized for the line. 3. Creating reversed double bottom pattern will be one more fundamental issue to warm an interest. 4. Good potential for the growth for 2 years (x4). The company shared information recently that the current owner is going to sell 100% of the nearest time. Stay careful and be attentive in any decisions.
PLong
by furoreggs
$QIWI proposes to be one of the good performersAs you can see, there is divergence on the downward MOEX:QIWI moving on the 1D graph with a high overselling. I'm expecting turning around and preparing of the baseline for the future leaps. Goal number 1 is 490, which can bring more than 100% during 1-1.5 years. Does not constitute a recommendation. #furoreggs #investing #stocks #shares #idea #forecast #trading #analysis If you want to discuss, please subscribe and challenge this point of view.
RUS:QIWILong
by furoreggs
SMLT 1H Swing Long Aggressive CounterTrend TradeAggressive CounterTrend Trade - short impulse - unvolumed T1 + support level + volumed 2Sp+ + weak test + biggest volume first buying bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + volumed manipulation" Monthly Trend "+ long impulse + T2 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation" Yearly trend "+ T1 level + support level + biggest volume manipulation?"
RUS:SMLTLong
by MishaSuvorov
AFKS Swing 1H Long Conservative CounterTrend TradeConservative CounterTrend Trade + long balance + 1/2 correction + volumed ICE level + support level + biggest volume 2Sp- + weak test - above first bullish bar close entry Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit Daily Context "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 level + volumed manipulation + support level" Monthly Context "- short impulse + biggest volume T1 level - below 1/2 correction + support level - one bar reversal?!" Yearly Context "- short impulse - neutral zone"
RUS:AFKS
by MishaSuvorov
Navigating Sanctions: Ruble Transaction and Energy SettlementsThe inclusion of Gazprombank in the sanctions list has introduced significant challenges to payment transactions, particularly those involving the Russian ruble. Due to the necessity of involving Russian correspondent banks, ruble settlements now carry considerable risks. Most Russian banks being under sanctions exacerbates these complications, rendering ruble transactions a sensitive and largely opaque area. Here are 4 key observations: 1. Ruble Settlements and Sanctions Risk: Any acknowledgment of ruble transactions could be interpreted as a sanctions violation. As a result, the focus has shifted toward preserving settlements in Western currencies or those of "friendly" countries. These funds eventually enter Russia through intricate and less transparent financial circuits. 2. Offshore Ruble Market Feasibility: The creation of an offshore ruble market appears unlikely at this stage. Companies operating internationally often receive payments in dollars or euros but face challenges converting these into rubles for domestic operations. This reliance underscores the fragility of the existing external financial circuit. 3. Corporate Adaptation Examples: Lukoil: This energy giant uses accounts in Middle Eastern banks to receive foreign currencies . While these transactions provide temporary access to rubles, they remain exceptional rather than standard practice. Rosneft: The company has restructured its oil sales strategy. By using subsidiaries in India to refine crude and sell petroleum products, Rosneft creates a less transparent financial flow. Although high oil prices currently mitigate risks, a potential decline in prices could expose vulnerabilities in this approach. 4. Fragmentation of Settlement Schemes: As old financial pathways are dismantled, companies are left to develop individualized settlement and supply chain models. This fragmented landscape reflects the absence of a unified solution, with each entity navigating unique challenges. Outlook: The ongoing evolution of financial and supply chain structures will require adaptability from both companies and financial institutions. High energy prices provide temporary relief, but sustained stability will depend on the development of resilient, transparent systems that can withstand potential downturns. While a unified framework seems improbable in the near term, understanding and anticipating these shifts will be critical for stakeholders operating within and outside Russia. RUS:LKOH RUS:ROSN
RUS:GAZP
by juliakhandoshko
Sanctions on Gazprombank- Impact on the European Energy MarketThe sanctions imposed on Gazprombank represent a significant challenge, but at the same time, they are not an insurmountable barrier to continuing payments for Russian gas. The OFAC sanctions framework often allows for exceptions, and in this case, we can anticipate mechanisms similar to general licenses that have already been granted to other Russian banks for energy-related transactions. However, the speed and transparency of this process remain uncertain, introducing additional risks for market participants. Alternative payment solutions include using other banks covered by exemption lists or transitioning to alternative currencies. While such changes involve higher transactional costs, they are technically feasible. Europe, despite political pressures, is aiming to maintain Russian gas supplies due to the lack of immediate alternatives, especially given its infrastructural reliance on pipeline gas. Maintaining even partial cooperation with Gazprom is inevitable, because a complete severance would lead to substantial economic losses and a further increase in gas prices. Moreover, energy relations are not a field where temporary pauses may occur without significant consequences. Central European countries would find themselves in an extremely vulnerable position if supplies were cut off, so compromises—potentially negotiated behind closed doors—are likely. Russia's strategy involves not only for seeking alternative routes, such as boosting supplies through Turkey or to China, but also leveraging the current sanctions as a bargaining tool with European partners. Gazprom is likely to balance between minimizing losses and pursuing an escalation strategy, using the sanctions as a means to strengthen its negotiation position. Conclusion: The current situation underscores the need for flexibility and a willingness to negotiate on all possible sides. Both Europe and Russia must work toward compromise solutions to mitigate the repercussions of this new phase of sanctions policy. EUREX:FMUR1!
RUS:GAZP
by juliakhandoshko
ALRS 5M Conservative CounterTrend DayTradeConservative CounterTrend Trade - long impulse + 1/2 correction - SOS level + support level + volumed 2Sp+ Calculated affordable stop limit 1 to 2 R/R take profit slightly above 1 H range Transferrable to Swing after closes test and resumes buying on 1H Transferrable to Investment trade after ends test and resumes buying on 1D 1H CounterTrend "- short impulse + 1/2 correction - unvolumed T1 + support level - volumed 2Sp- + test" Daily CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed T1 + support level + biggest volume Sp + weak test" Monthly CounterTrend "- short impulse + volumed TE / T1 + support level + volumed Sp + test" Yearly trend "+ long impulse + 1/2 correction + T2 level + support level + manipulation"
RUS:ALRSLong
by MishaSuvorov