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Polymetal(POLY) "Continuation"Disclaimer/ On average, 90% of all stocks move down with the market, and 75% - up. The wave principle applies to some extent to individual stocks, but counting waves for them is often confusing and has little practical significance. But since the company has a large capitalization, we assume that the state of the shares depends on the psychology of the masses According to our old plans, we have reached a turning point. Now the 3rd wave is coming. Gold, contrary to the correction that we have observed recently and will, most likely, observe for some time, is at the top (Price range:1950-1550USD, Delta:400, Average:1750), which is a good thing for gold mining companies. (Relative stability) "The Group's revenue and most of its loans are denominated in US dollars, while the bulk of the Group's expenses are denominated in Russian rubles and Kazakhstani tenge. Thus, changes in exchange rates may affect the financial results and performance of the Group. The strengthening of functional currencies relative to the US dollar may adversely affect enterprises in Russia and Kazakhstan and lead to higher operating costs denominated in local currency and lower margins. ". I have been waiting for the strengthening of EUR, USD for a long time. Now there is also a turning point. Other gold mining "Russian companies" are in a similar position. SENSITIVITY TO RUB/USD, GOLD PRICE(1H 2021 FINANCIAL RESULTS)(At the 1H 2021 average realized price) Effect on FCF : A 1 RUB/USD movement in domestic currency $17-21m A $100/oz movement in the gold price ~$150m
PLong
by loco_mango
OPEC ReportOPEC's monthly report was released yesterday. Analysts of the cartel lowered the estimate of oil demand growth in 2021 to 5.8 million barrels per day (b/d) compared to 5.96 million b/d in the previous forecast. Thus, global demand in 2021 will average 96.6 million b/d. "The downward revision is mainly due to lower-than-expected actual data for the first three quarters of this year, despite assumptions about good demand for oil in the last quarter of the year, which will be supported by a seasonal increase in demand for fuel for petrochemicals, heating and a potential transition from natural gas to petroleum products," the report says. The forecast of demand growth in 2022 is maintained at the level of the previous report's estimate of 4.2 million b/d (100.8 million b/d). The forecast was influenced by expectations of high economic growth rates in the main consumer countries as they gradually emerge from the pandemic. The organization predicts that the demand for oil in 2022 will reach 100.8 million b/d, which will exceed.
RUS:SIBN
by nesskneeld7280
Trad.RU|AAL-RM|LongLong AAL-RM The system trading idea is activated only when it is fixed in the highlighted blue zone, if the price has gone beyond the highlighted zone, then the transaction is activated 2 minutes after the breakout. * The author reserves the right to close the deal before reaching the take zone and the stop zone. Closing a deal for subjective reasons does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue developing the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author. The level indicated by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, a reversal is possible in this area for correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction. The term "forecast" was used to indicate the percentage potential in this idea. The author does not take into account the date and time of the trade, only the percentage change. Blue zones are activation zones. Green zones are take zones. The red zone is the stop zone. Working out of the take level takes place without fixing on a "pending order", working out of the stop level only when fixing in the stop zone or breaking through this zone. SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take. !This idea is in the format of a systemic trading idea, losses will be mandatory, the goal is to gain a positive PNL at a distance by using the system. Follow your own risk and money management parameters if you are going to use these ideas.!
ALong
by L_a_R_U
2
Trad.RU|HYDR|LongLong HYDR The system trading idea is activated only when it is fixed in the highlighted blue zone, if the price has gone beyond the highlighted zone, then the transaction is activated 2 minutes after the breakout. * The author reserves the right to close the deal before reaching the take zone and the stop zone. Closing a deal for subjective reasons does not completely cancel the idea and is not a call to the same action, you can continue developing the idea according to your data, but without the support of the author. The level indicated by the ellipse is a zone of increased resistance, a reversal is possible in this area for correction, please take this factor into account in this transaction. The term "forecast" was used to indicate the percentage potential in this idea. The author does not take into account the date and time of the trade, only the percentage change. Blue zones are activation zones. Green zones are take zones. The red zone is the stop zone. Working out of the take level takes place without fixing on a "pending order", working out of the stop level only when fixing in the stop zone or breaking through this zone. SUM PNL: This parameter displays the total % of all closed ideas (according to the author) for this sector at the time of publication of the idea. The calculation is very "clumsy" just the sum of the profits of all the ideas, based on this indicator, you can more accurately assess the risks when working with my ideas of this sector. I present you the construction of the idea, you can use it yourself as you like based on your subjective view and risks, the calculation of the PNL indicator is carried out only on transactions that the author closed on TV in manual mode or by take. !This idea is in the format of a systemic trading idea, losses will be mandatory, the goal is to gain a positive PNL at a distance by using the system. Follow your own risk and money management parameters if you are going to use these ideas.!
RUS:HYDRLong
by L_a_R_U
Pfizer | Fundamental Analysis | Short view Many would agree that a half victory is better than a total defeat. Pfizer and BioNTech have seen this through firsthand experience. The two partners had hoped that an FDA advisory committee would recommend revaccination with the COVID-19 vaccine to all Americans 16 years of age and older. A week ago, however, the committee voted 16-2 against recommending the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for a wide age range. It wasn't just bad news for these drug companies, however. The FDA advisory committee also voted unanimously to recommend the boosters for U.S. citizens age 65 and older, and anyone at high risk for severe COVID-19. And now you're probably wondering, could Pfizer stock be a reasonable investment choice after this partial victory? The FDA still has to decide whether to revaccinate the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. If the agency follows the commission's recommendations and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) agrees with them, many additional vaccines could soon become available. As per the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services' Office on Aging, there were about 52.4 million Americans age 65 and older in 2018. Today, that number is undoubtedly higher. Vaccination rates among older Americans are higher than any other age group. According to the CDC, nearly 85 percent of people between the ages of 65 and 74 have been fully vaccinated. Nearly 80% of Americans age 75 and older have been fully vaccinated. We don't know how many of these people received the Comirnaty COVID-19 vaccine from Pfizer and BioNTech. However, overall, Comirnaty accounts for about 57% of all COVID-19 vaccine doses administered to date. It is estimated that about 25 million Comirnaty revaccinations could be administered in the following months if the FDA and CDC give the green light to revaccination. Based on previous vaccine prices, the total cost of revaccination for the groups recommended by the FDA panel could approach $500 million. At first glance, the possibility of an additional $500 million over the next few months may seem significant. However, there are several reasons not to get so excited. Most importantly, none of the companies are likely to get "extra" money from boosters shortly. The U.S. has already ordered a total of 500 million doses from Pfizer and BioNTech, plus another 500 million doses for transfer to other countries. At least at this time, it is doubtful that extra doses will be purchased by the government to vaccinate Americans. Keep in mind also that Pfizer and BioNTech share profits from Comirnaty. Even if the companies could expect additional orders from the U.S. government for boosters, the financial impact for Pfizer would not be huge. In the second quarter, the company had revenue of $19 billion and profits of nearly $5.6 billion. There is really no good reason to buy Pfizer stock based on the recommendation of the FDA advisory committee. Nevertheless, there are other reasons why investors might seriously consider stock in this major pharmaceutical company. The need for an annual refill for everyone is still a real possibility. If Pfizer can count on strong recurring revenues from Comirnaty for years to come, the stock will look much more attractive. No doubt, Pfizer doesn't just rely on its COVID-19 vaccine. The pharmaceutical giant has other growth drivers that should appeal to investors, notably the rare heart disease drug Vyndaqel/Vyndamax and the blood-thinning drug Eliquis. Pfizer's pipeline could bring even more big wins. A pill for COVID-19 may be on the way. The drugmaker also has more than 20 other late-stage programs. It is also adding to its portfolio through deals, including intentions to buy Trillium Therapeutics. Last, but not least, is Pfizer's dividend. Many income investors will like the dividend yield, which is currently 3.5%. For some investors, Pfizer stock looks like a good choice. But any endorsement for older Americans boosters isn't much of a factor in deciding whether or not to buy the stock one way or the other.
PShort
by FOREXN1
3
MMK: Stock price will repeat the 2nd quarterAgainst the backdrop of strong fin. indicators of the 3rd quarter Key factors and catalysts Annual forward dividend approximate to 40% in H2 2021 Should significantly increase production up to 30% Cost less than competitors in one sector on P/E and EV/EBITDA multiples Beneficiary of commodity supercycle 2021 Most likely going to be included in the MSCI Russia index The desire of the main shareholder to increase free-float by 2%, which gives an increase in FIF by 0.5 and weight in the MSCI index Main beneficiary from the transition from duties to MET tax from the beginning of 2022 Main beneficiary from the decline in world prices for iron ore and high prices for hot-rolled steel Negative debt load Making every effort to be ESG friendly An unprecedented openness and disclosure of information to investors It is a super clear and transparent business with a double-digit dividend history We calculate financial indicators for the 3rd quarter of 2021 Revenue - $ 3302.6 million to increase by 1.5% q / q (3370 * 980) EBITDA - $ 1,380.7 million decrease by 3.8% q/q including the effect of duties $ 60 million (3,370 * 427.5-60000) Profit - $ 1017 million (1380.7-125) * (1-0.19) Total NWC - a decrease by $ 259 million due to a significant decrease in world prices for iron ore and a decrease in prices for finished products due to the introduction of temporary duties on inventories (1425 * (0.4 * 0.33 + 0.20 * 0.25)) FCF - $ 1,045 million, an increase of 92% q/q (EBITDA-Change in PSC-CAPEX-Taxes = 1380.7 + 259-350-245) Dividend - $0.11. an increase of 222% taking into account compensation over a cappex ((1045 + 350-175) / 11174.33) or 9.4% in quarter
RUS:MAGNLong
by lebedev.k.m