Mechel long-term longMOEX:MTLR
Allocating some RUB funds to Mechel. Mechel exports 78% of its steel for hard currency, hence the idea. No prospect of geopolitical situation improvement just yet.
Sberbank - Not so simpleSince 2015, Sberbank is in an upward trend. I already met ideas about the end of this trend and going to correction. However I do not agree with them. According to the wave theory, I can not finish the wave 5. And therefore we will continue to move up after a small correction. The end of it I see within the zone 240-246 rubles (allocated in green). Breakdown of the green zone down will mean a complicated wave design "C of 4". In this case, you should wait for the zone to reach 225 rubles (the red arrow on the chart). A quite ghostly variant (red dotted line) is from the current levels to go up and complicate the design. I stick to the "green" version, I will look for purchases there, but go after a clear impulse. I expect a goal of 300 rubles and above.
AEROFLOT - LongEntry: 148.20 rub
1 target: 180 rub
2 target: 220 rub
3 target: 300 rub
Stop-Loss: 129.85 rub
TATN short on MSCI rebalancing - novemberPair trading - TATN short, Novatek long - MSCI rebalancing august or november
ALROSA: Weekly Uptrend Is About To ResumeAlrosa is a Russian group of diamond mining companies that has the leading role in the world diamond mining by volume. Alrosa is engaged in the exploration, mining, manufacture and sale of diamonds. Mining takes place in Western Yakutia, Russia, the Arkhangelsk region, Russia and Africa. The Russian Federation is the largest diamond-producing nation in the world. Alrosa is the leading company accounting for 95% of country's production and 28% of the global diamond extraction. Alrosa has the world’s largest rough diamond reserves, sufficient for at least another 18–20 years of production.
Alrosa stock is traded on Moscow Exchange, its symbol is MOEX:ALRS, price is nominated in Russian Rubles. This stock has finished its minor downtrend which started in early 2017. What's going to happen next? See the following chart.
Finished the ABC correction
Now it's pretty clear that this stock has just completed the ABC correction pattern ("ZigZag") and now is about to resume the longer term trend. Still there is a room for one more minor drop to finally touch the trend channel and bounce off it.
Symmetry says +140% potential
As we you can see on the previous historical waves, there is a potential for about 140% rise in the next swing up. This swing should take 1-2 years to complete.
Currently Alrosa is traded at 86.5 rubles per share, so the final target is around 180 rubles per share. Stop loss is below the trend channel.
