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Kinnevik weak negative medium long timeThe long trend has been declining since the end of 2021, but there is a short trend in 2023 where the trend is horizontal, price graph and MA converge. From January 9 to March 9, we have a head-shoulder formation (HS). The formation is supported to some extent by volume movements. There is a break down, but the object has not been taken out. At the beginning of the HS formation we have a small double bottom formation (DB). There is break up, but it is quickly neutralized by the HS formation. There is support around 135 and resistans around 183. It is determined by a chart of 1Y. There is a poor correlation between price peaks and volume peaks. RSI around 50. OBV rising over the past 1.5 months. MACD and Stochastic follow the price. On tradingview.com, MA and oscillators stand one day on purchase, one week on neutral and one month on sell. Consider the stock technically weak negative medium long time, one to 6 months. There are recorded short positions at 3.14%, down from 3.9% in mid-February. Fundamental analysts (6) have an average price target of 177. They are divided by as many positives as negatives to the stock. The substance value of Kinnevik B is given as 196.6. Disclaimer: I have a smaller position in the stock. I sold most of it when the price went down, I wanted to reduce the drain. Keep in mind that you need to do your own research and assessment before buying and selling. Sources: Trading View, Yahoo Finance, ibindex.se and blankningsregistret.se.
OMXSTO:KINV_B
by scorpiris
Bonava – bad annual report 2022 and weak forecastsNegative drivers: OMXSTO:BONAV_B 1. Write down of assets in Russia – extra costs for shareholders 2. Growing interest rated ruins the business 3. Lack of liquidity in 2023 decreases shareholders value 4. Additional costs as a result of inflation. 5. Deterioration on real estate market in Europe and bubble growing risk for investors Additional info: Looking back over 5 years Bonava returns have been really bad: - Not growing revenue and even decreasing in 2021 vs 2020 - Decreasing net profit (down from SEK 1,94 bn in 2017 to SEK 1,23 bn in 2021) - No dividends at all (except 4Q 2020) - Enormous losses for the shareholders - share price down 71% in the period And 2022 results would be the weakest for 5 year period (will be release on 9.00am CET 2 Feb 2023). Bad facts about the company and what to expect for full year 2022: 1. Write down of assets in Russia – extra costs for shareholders In October 2022 Bonava sold out its subsidiaries in Russia because of war in Ukraine. The price is EUR 98 m (SEK 1.1 bn) and it is much lower that the real market price of the assets. The write-down of net assets amounts to SEK 0.9 bn in 2022 financial statements. It would negatively affect the share price when the financial statements be released. 2. Growing interest rated ruins the business The Company has relatively high debt and it tend to grow over the last periods. Average interest rate increased from 2.15% in 3Q2020 to 3.23% in 3Q2022. This leads to interest expenses increase and additional losses. 3. Lack of liquidity in 2023 decreases shareholders value Moreover Bonava will have to make significant payments on its debt obligations in 2023 as shown on the diagram below. Most probably part of the debt will be refinanced at a higher rate which will decrease shareholders value of the Company. 4. Additional costs as a result of inflation. Bonava faces growing construction costs as a result of rapidly growing inflation. At the same time the Company cannot increase sales price because demand is very sensitive to further price increase which is already record high. The marked is in bubble condition which could burst anytime in 2023. In such situation investors are not willing to deposit their money in assets like real estate and Bonava has to deal with that somehow. 5. Deterioration on real estate market in Europe and bubble growing risk for investors The demand for homes is rapidly falling and the unemployment rate is getting higher coupled by increasing interest rate. The uncertainty in geopolitical aspects and Europe economy in all have already started to impact real estate demand and prices. The marker is overheated and prices are starting to get down. 6. Global macroeconomics outlook is negative Eurozone economy has no drivers for growth. Below is McKinsey forecast over 3 year period and long-term till 2030. Oil and gas prices are set for further growth in all scenarios which will slow down GDP growth even more. Inflation will freeze at record high levels and will be the main problem.
OMXSTO:BONAV_BShort
by Yarmish