TSCO - 4 months CUP & HANDLE══════════════════════════════
Since 2014, my markets approach is to spot
trading opportunities based solely on the
development of
CLASSICAL CHART PATTERNS
🤝Let’s learn and grow together 🤝
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Hello Traders ✌
After a careful consideration I came to the conclusion that:
- it is crucial to be quick in alerting you with all the opportunities I spot and often I don't post a good pattern because I don't have the opportunity to write down a proper didactical comment;
- since my parameters to identify a Classical Pattern and its scenario are very well defined, many of my comments were and would be redundant;
- the information that I think is important is very simple and can easily be understood just by looking at charts;
For these reasons and hoping to give you a better help, I decided to write comments only when something very specific or interesting shows up, otherwise all the information is shown on the chart.
Thank you all for your support
🔎🔎🔎 ALWAYS REMEMBER
"A pattern IS NOT a Pattern until the breakout is completed. Before that moment it is just a bunch of colorful candlesticks on a chart of your watchlist"
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⚠ DISCLAIMER ⚠
Breakout Area, Target, Levels, each line drawn on this chart and any other content represent just The Art Of Charting’s personal opinion and it is posted purely for educational purposes. Therefore it must not be taken as a direct or indirect investing recommendations or advices. Entry Point, Initial Stop Loss and Targets depend on your personal and unique Trading Plan Tactics and Money Management rules, Any action taken upon these information is at your own risk.
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I do think BIRD will be one of my best investments of all time.
Innovative Technology: Blackbird operates in the cloud-native video editing and publishing software market with its platform named Blackbird. This platform allows for frame-accurate navigation, playback, viewing, and editing in the cloud, which is particularly beneficial for video professionals in various sectors including news, sports, and entertainment. The technology's ability to handle video in a cloud-based environment offers significant advantages like cost savings, reduced hardware requirements, and scalability, which are increasingly important in the digital content era.
Market Growth and User Adoption: The company has shown growth in user adoption with its product elevate.io, which has reached 40,000 users across 120 countries shortly after its launch. This indicates a potential for further expansion in the SaaS and cloud video markets, where Blackbird operates.
Strategic Developments: Blackbird has been active in enhancing its product offerings, with recent announcements about new features and the appointment of new directors to support the rollout of elevate.io, suggesting a strategic push to strengthen its market position.
Financial Considerations: While Blackbird's latest annual financials show a net loss, the company's revenue from its innovative technology, even if not yet profitable, indicates potential for future growth. The interest from both insiders through share purchases and from external investors might suggest confidence in future profitability or a strategic acquisition. However, the negative price-to-earnings ratio implies that the company is not currently profitable, which investors should consider alongside growth potential.
Investment Sentiment: There's a mix of optimism and caution among investors based on discussions on platforms like ADVFN, where some see potential in the rapid user growth of elevate.io, while others express concerns over monetization and user retention. This duality in investor sentiment could mean there's room for significant upside if the company manages to successfully navigate these challenges.
However, investing in Blackbird plc also comes with risks:
Volatility: The stock has shown significant volatility, which might not suit all investors, particularly those with a low risk tolerance.
Profitability: The company is currently reporting losses, which could be a concern for investors focusing on immediate returns.
Market Competition: The cloud video editing market is competitive, and Blackbird's ability to maintain or grow market share will depend on continuous innovation and effective marketing.
In conclusion, buying Blackbird plc shares could be considered if you believe in the long-term growth of cloud-based video solutions and are willing to accept the risks associated with a company that is still working towards profitability. As with any investment, it's crucial to conduct thorough due diligence, consider your investment strategy, and possibly consult with a financial advisor.
Fraser's Group - negative From the bottom of the pandemic they went from 180 to 995.
In Oct 24 they broke to the downside after forming a triangle pattern from July 22 to Oct 24.
There was no indication that the price would break out to the upside from that pattern.
In technical analysis, the target for Shorters would be 409.
GLA and DYOR. This is not a solicitation to hold or trade.
Tesco’s Loyalty Boost Sparks Channel BreakoutTesco's share price has come alive, breaking out of its recent lull just in time for the critical holiday season. With a long-term uptrend intact and a timely nod from the UK regulator on its loyalty schemes, the supermarket giant is flexing its retail muscles once again.
A Year of Growth, Loyalty, and Market Leadership
Tesco’s share price has been locked in a strong uptrend this year, supported by the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) consistently trading above the upward-sloping 200-day SMA. This sustained bullish momentum reflects the company’s strong performance, bolstered by robust earnings and strategic initiatives.
In its most recent half-year results for 2024, Tesco delivered a 7.4% rise in group sales to £30.2 billion and operating profit growth of 13.5% to £1.5 billion, highlighting resilience in a challenging retail environment. Its market-leading Clubcard scheme continues to drive customer engagement, contributing to a 3.7% increase in like-for-like sales in the UK and Ireland.
In September, Tesco surged to fresh highs, before entering a period of mean reversion. Prices pulled back within a broad descending channel as they consolidated around the 50SMA, offering a classic technical setup that hinted at a potential resurgence.
That resurgence materialised last week following a report from the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) confirming that supermarket loyalty schemes, including Tesco’s Clubcard Prices, offer genuine savings for consumers. The CMA’s review of 50,000 grocery products revealed average savings of 17-25% for loyalty scheme members, dispelling scepticism about misleading promotions. This endorsement not only reassures shoppers but strengthens Tesco's position as a leader in customer value. With 70% of UK households using Tesco's Clubcard, this affirmation solidifies its competitive edge during the critical holiday shopping period.
The breakout from the descending channel has realigned short-term momentum with Tesco's broader uptrend. With the festive season approaching, Tesco appears well-positioned to capitalise on increased consumer spending. If current trends hold, the shares could retest September highs and potentially aim for fresh peaks, making this a stock to watch through year-end.
Tesco (TSCO) Daily Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
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When is a stock too high to buy? (Example: IHG)How do you know when you’ve missed the boat?
A stock has already gone up a tonne, so bascally you are too late!
Sometimes, you just have to let go, right?
Sometimes yes, but not always - let’s look at an example.
International Hotels Group (IHG)
Back in 2020, LSE:IHG IHG shares were trading down at ~2000 GBX, now they are a hairs breadth from 10,000 - that’s 5X in about 4 years. Not bad.
Can you really even think about buying shares at 10,000 that were 2,000 only 4 years ago. 🤔
We’re saying YES.. if you follow some guidelines.
Clearly this is not a value investment - this is a momentum trade.
To be buying IHG shares up here, one is basically arguing that the price at new highs indicates and buyers are in charge and the price is going to keep going up for the time being.
This helps define the trade risk very well.
If the trade is that IHG has broken out over the previous peak at ~8,800. We don’t want to be owning shares below this level - if they’re back below 8,800 the momentum has stalled and we need to be out.
To put it another way, we are not buying just under 10,000 and willing to hold the shares all the way back down to 2,000 again - no. We want to ride the momentum up - not down !
From here there’s a pretty good chance that momentum takes the price up to the 10,000 level. As a big round number, there is also a good chance that profit taking takes place here too.
That creates our buy zone between 8,800 and the current market price (9,750).
So what might a trading strategy look like to capture this situation?
The following is a way to have:
An intial risk of £1000 to test the waters
A total risk £3000 if/when the trade starts working
A 2X profit potential (with the opportunity to capture more)
Spread Betting Strategy: Target £6000+ Profit with £1000 Initial Risk
Entry Points and Stops
9000 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8600 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9200 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: 8800 GBX.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Risk: £1000.
9400 GBX Entry:
Stop Loss: Trailing 400 points.
Bet Size: £2.50 per point.
Initial Risk: £1000.
Profit Targets
First Position (9000):
Gain: 1000 points.
Profit: £2500.
Second Position (9200):
Gain: 800 points.
Profit: £2000.
Third Position (9400):
Trailing Stop Profit Example:
10,400 GBX: Profit = £2500.
11,000 GBX: Profit = £4000 or more.
Summary
Total Risk: £3000.
Fixed Profit (First Two Positions): £4500.
Potential Profit (Third Position): Variable, based on trailing stop.
Reward-to-Risk Ratio: 2:1 or higher, depending on trend continuation.
NG. - Long: bull flag breakout NG. has formed a bull flag with a falling parallel channel and is about to breakout. Bull flag is a continuation pattern so woith complete formation of bull flag, expected price target is 1230 which 24% profit from current price.
If we connect two highest points on a weekly point, they coincide with the same price target of 1230, completing formation of a bull flag.
Price is also above SMA200.
If price retraces back to lower parallel channel trendline, this would be a good add level as there is strong support zone in Weekly timeframe
Enter: Current Market Price
SL: 930
TP: 1230
R/R: 1:3.89
Easyjet ready to fly?Easyjet records better financial statements, looking at the report is possible to read that LSE:EZJ flew about 5% increase in seats when compared with last year.
The revenue increased by 14% this mainly because of the increase of 8% in capacity. Looking over the financial indicator it's noticeable an increase in revenue and the difference compared to 13 week moving average.
The price breakout for the second time above the top of ascending triangle following for a cross over the 200ema. The yellow resistance is the strongest one that still needs to be broken.
ADX is already above DMI- and being at 19,49 can show some strength confirming the DMI+.
EFI barely dropped below zero when the price failed to cross the EMA changing direction above zero rapidly.
I'm 🇬🇧 for the night - LONG ALFA @ 221.0It would seem, from a short backtest, that my algo works across the pond as well. In the last 12 months, it generated 26 buy signals on LSE:ALFA , traded in London. Using my FPC exit, all 26 trades would have been profitable. And LSE:ALFA is very British polite, too. The average holding period was only 2.96 days but 16 of the 26 trades closed in 1 day, just the way you want them to. A couple of hooligan-ish trades ruined that average for everyone else. Isn't that always the case? The average gain per lot traded was 2.03% which is a .67% return per day.
Again, that doesn't seem like much, but LSE:ALFA is part of the FTSE 250, and that index's average ANNUAL return (dividends not included) over the last 28 years was 5.38%. That's .02% per day, so these results are over 33x better than an average day on the FTSE 250. In fact, one trade beat the average annual gain of this index all by itself, and another almost did.
So here goes. 221 pounds on LSE:ALFA and let's see what happens.
RR > Gate Closed >Recent price action suggests a potential double-bottom formation near the prior resistance level at the current low of circa 530's. A failure to break above this level could lead to further downside pressure, with the next support level anticipated around the psychological level of 500.😍
Enwell Energy (LSE:ENW) - One for the watchlist.Enwell Energy (ENW) is showing strong technical signals, making it a compelling watch for those tracking the oil sector. Currently trading above both the 12- and 36-month SMAs, the stock's RSI and MACD indicators are trending upward, suggesting bullish momentum. The weekly chart positions it above the Ichimoku cloud, with potential to break into the monthly cloud on a sector-wide oil reversal. Fundamentally, Enwell scores an impressive 100/100 on Stockopedia, highlighting its robust financial health and growth prospects. This combination of technical strength and strong fundamentals makes it a stock to keep on the radar.
Stop would currently be held at 20p.
I do not hold shares in ENW.
103x Return on Great Western Mining Corporation I think there is a good chance this is the bottom of the market for this stock.
With the precious metals bull market reigniting since October 2023 this stock has only declined further and many other mining companies in this sector have seen significant gains.
This is typical price action for a penny stock where there is no production yet.
I do however see there is a good chance the tide is about to turn and I now see a greater than 500 Reward to Risk ratio here with a 15% decline the maximum I would allow.
The expected upside is 10,200% which is equivalent to a 103x return.
It may take it’s time though to get going and reach those stages where there are some really nice candles up outpacing many of the large caps. So patience is key with this one and I wouldn’t recommend putting a huge amount in and instead you would be better off having your core allocation in the large caps.
One reason why I believe this opportunity is great is because I see the downside risk being limited to 15% which I also believe is the bottom of the market.
The short term downside risk on the larger caps is greater than this so I think it becomes a good opportunity because of this.
I do however expect the large caps generally to continue to outperform this penny stock over the short term but I think it is highly likely there will come a point where this stock starts to shoot up and outperform the large caps. So it may leave you frustrated for a while so my advice is to just allocate a small amount and leave it for 5-10 years.